Gold Investors Future
Gold Investors Future
Gold Investors Future
GOLD
INVESTORS
MANUAL
GOLD
INVESTOR'S
MANUAL
Regal Assets Is Our Number One Metal Dealer In The United States. There
Prices Are Always Fair And There Customer Support Is Secound To None.
For A Limited Time They Are Providing A Free Brochure And Training
Material For Those Interested In Adding More To There Portfolio.
You Can See There Website Here : www.YourNewAsset.Com
Founded in 1999 and based out of Baltimore, Maryland, Stansberry Research is the largest independent source of financial insight
in the world. It delivers unbiased investment advice to self-directed investors seeking an edge in a wide variety of sectors and
market conditions.
Stansberry Research has nearly two dozen analysts and researchers including former hedge-fund managers and buy-side financial experts. They produce a steady stream of timely research on
value investing, income generation, resources, biotech, financials,
short-selling, macroeconomic analysis, options trading, and more.
The companys unrelenting and uncompromised insight has made
it one of the most respected and sought-after research organizations
in the financial sector. It has nearly one million readers and more
than 400,000 paid subscribers in over 100 countries.
Porter Stansberry
Porter Stansberry founded Stansberry Research in 1999 with the firms
flagship newsletter, Stansberrys Investment Advisory.
Prior to launching Stansberry Research, Porter was the first American
editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the worlds oldest English-language
financial newsletter.
Today, Porter is well-known for doing some of the most important
and often controversial work in the financial-advisory business. Since
he launched Stansberrys Investment Advisory, his string of accurate
forecasts has made his advisory one of the most widely read in the
world... and has helped his readers both avoid catastrophe and make
incredible gains.
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud is the editor of True Wealth,
which focuses on safe, unique, alternative investments
overlooked by Wall Street. He is also the editor of
True Wealth Systems, which has distilled decades of
Steves investing experience into three dozen computer trading models.
And he is the main contributor to Stansberry Researchs free e-letter
DailyWealth.
Prior to joining Stansberry Research in 2001, Steve was a stockbroker,
vice president of a global mutual fund, and head of a hedge fund. He has
been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, Barrons, and the Washington
Post. He also co-authored Safe Strategies for Financial Freedom, a
bestselling book on investment strategies. He holds a doctorate in
finance.
Matt Badiali
Matt Badiali is the editor of The Stansberry Resource
Report, a monthly advisory focused on investments in
energy, metals, and other natural resources. Over the
years, Matt has recorded an incredible list of tripledigit winners, like Northern Dynasty Minerals (322%), Silver Wheaton
(345%), and Jinshan Gold Mines (339%), among many others.
Matt takes a boots on the ground approach to his research. His work
has taken him to Papua New Guinea, Iraq, Hong Kong, Singapore, Haiti,
Turkey, Switzerland, and many other locations around the world. He has
built a huge Rolodex of the most influential people in the industry from
private financiers, leading geologists, and natural-resource analysts to
billionaire hedge-fund managers.
Prior to joining Stansberry Research in 2005, Matt was a geologist for a
drilling company and a consultant to an environmental company. He has
appeared on Fox Business, Stansberry Radio, and other business news
programs. He is a regular contributor to The Energy Report and Growth
Stock Wire. And his work is featured in the book Secrets of the Natural
Resource Market.
Dr. David Eifrig, Jr.
Dr. Eifrig is the editor of three Stansberry Research
newsletters... His largest monthly publication, Retirement
Millionaire, shows 100,000-plus readers how to live a
millionaire lifestyle on less money than youd imagine
possible. Retirement Trader shows readers a safe way to double or triple
the gains in their retirement accounts with less risk. Income Intelligence
shows investors how to analyze the income markets to maximize their
income and total returns.
Doc has one of the best track records in the financial-newsletter business.
From 2010 to 2014, he closed 136 winning positions in a row for his
Retirement Trader subscribers.
Before joining Stansberry Research in 2008, Dr. Eifrig worked in
arbitrage and trading groups with major Wall Street investment banks,
GUEST CONTRIBUTORS
Van Simmons
Van Simmons is the president of David Hall Rare Coins, one of the
nations largest rare-coin dealers.
Van is one of the most knowledgeable minds in the world on coins,
stamps, and just about any other collectible you can think of. He has
been a rare-coin collector since age 12 and a rare-coin dealer since 1979.
As one of the founders of Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS), the
largest rare-coin grading service in the world, he has helped revolutionize
the rare-coin market.
Tom Dyson
Tom Dyson is the publisher of Common Sense Publishing,
which provides useful advice about building wealth, living
well, and investing.
Tom graduated from the University of Nottingham in the United
Kingdom. Hes a member of the Chartered Institute of Management
Accountants, one of Britains top accounting bodies. He has also worked
for bond-trading desks at Salomon Brothers and Citigroup.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Before we get started, wed like to offer special thanks to the guys at
Casey Research. They do some of the best natural-resource research you
can find anywhere... and theyre always plugged into whats happening
with gold.
In the following pages, youll find commentary from their own Jeff Clark,
senior editor of BIG GOLD. If youre interested in profiting off the move
in gold with high-quality precious-metals stocks, we highly recommend
you check out Jeffs work. To learn more, visit www.caseyresearch.com/
premium-publications/big-gold.
Wed also like to thank our friend Van Simmons... If youre looking to
preserve your wealth and even make a few hundred percent in gold coins,
Van Simmons is someone you need to know. And hes always glad to talk
with Stansberry Research readers to help them with the right collectible
investments.
Weve found that Vans coin advice is excellent... and his advice on most
other things is just as good. You can reach Van directly at (800) 759-7575
or (949) 567-1325, or e-mail him at info@davidhall.com.
Finally, thanks to Michael Checkan, head of Asset Strategies
International. ASI is one of the largest private gold-bullion dealers in
the world. Michael has been helping investors use precious metals and
foreign currencies for 30 years. Hes extremely knowledgeable and has
offered to answer any questions for Stansberry Research readers. Visit
his website at www.assetstrategies.com or call (800) 831-0007.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Foreword
i
Part I
What Everyone Should Know About Gold
11
15
Part II
The Best Ways to Buy and Own Gold
The Right Amount of Gold Investors Should Own
21
23
26
29
31
34
36
41
46
49
52
54
56
60
63
69
79
82
88
The Easiest Way to Protect Yourself From the Next Financial Disaster 91
Doug Casey on Gold Stocks
96
Part III
How to Know When to Sell Your Gold
The Ultimate Gold-Bubble Test
Watch for This Signal to Sell Your Gold
108
111
Part IV
Chinas Influence in the Gold Market
How the Chinese Will Establish a New Financial Order
114
118
How and Why China Came to Dominate the Market for Gold
122
127
132
134
FOREWORD
by Porter Stansberry
founder, Stansberry Research
As this second, much larger wave of paper hit the market, merchants began to significantly devalue the paper versus genuine
bullion, leaving the paper with only about 60% of its previous
purchasing power.
When the market began to reject the fiat paper as a fraud, the colony moved to buttress its value by force a tactic copied later by
such illustrious leaders as Zimbabwes president Robert Mugabe.
The government decreed its paper was legal tender at par for
all debts and granted a 5% premium on the notes for all tax payments.
Such tactics worked... for a time. But as always happens when one
currency is artificially propped up over its intrinsic value, the bad
money forced out the good. Spanish silver coins, which had circulated widely in the colonies, began to disappear. (The same thing
would later occur in the 1960s, as the U.S. dollar declined to well
below the value of a silver dollar.)
Meanwhile, the politicians treated each of the following crises with
more of the same money medicine. In 1716, they issued another
100,000 notes these backed by a land bank. Then in the 1740s,
they more or less turned on the printing presses for good. Paper
money in circulation soared from around 300,000 notes to more
than 2.5 million.
All this money sloshing around the world helped power one of the
greatest speculative manias in history the South Sea Bubble. It
also caused the price of precious metals to soar. The free market
price of silver, which had once stood at par with the notes, ended
up 10 times higher. In about 60 years, the Massachusetts colony
had turned its promise to repay in specie (gold and silver coins)
into a farce: Its notes were now worth 90% less than face value.
Fed up with the constant economic booms and busts of a paper
standard (always followed by yet another, still-larger issue of paper money), the King of England in 1751 outlawed the issue of any
currency not backed by gold or silver.
Given our exit from the gold standard roughly 40 years ago, the
constantly increasing money supplies in the United States, and the
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iii
PART I
T H E S TA N S B E R R Y R E S E A R C H G O L D I N V E S T O R S M A N U A L
T H E S TA N S B E R R Y R E S E A R C H G O L D I N V E S T O R S M A N U A L
more than 2,000 years ago. The great investor Doug Casey is the
worlds best at reminding us why gold is still the ultimate form of
real money.
And now that America is inflating its money supply in an attempt
to pay for all kinds of wars, mortgage bailouts, social programs,
infrastructure build-outs, and green-energy boondoggles, its vital
to own a chunk of real wealth.
T H E S TA N S B E R R Y R E S E A R C H G O L D I N V E S T O R S M A N U A L
T H E S TA N S B E R R Y R E S E A R C H G O L D I N V E S T O R S M A N U A L
T H E S TA N S B E R R Y R E S E A R C H G O L D I N V E S T O R S M A N U A L
The U.S. dollar fell by that amount because our chief central banker
basically told the world that hed print lots of money in order to allow
our current political regime to spend lots of money... and to bail out
every American who cant balance a checkbook or show up for work.
My friend Porter Stansberry calls our current dollar situation a
full-blown crisis. Hes probably right.
And gold is demonstrating its value as crisis insurance.
I wish I lived in a country that produces more than it consumes...
that values personal responsibility and saving money. That has a
government that believes in fiscal responsibility. But I dont.
About half this country is on the government dole in some form
or another. Over 40 million people are on food stamps. People are
being paid by the government not to work. The people employed
by the government enjoy huge, outsized salaries for what they do.
This situation is a crisis. Thats why I own gold... and recommend
people keep at least 5% or 10% of their wealth in gold.
But heres where I differ from the average gold owner: Id love
to see gold fall down to $300 or $400 per ounce. Id love it if the
value of my crisis insurance would fall, rather than skyrocket... just
like I dont want my familys house to burn down... or why I dont
want someone to T-bone my car in an intersection.
But I look at the gang of clueless college professors, career politicians, and other types who have never held real world jobs occupying the White House and Congress... And when I consider that half
of this country is on some form of government dole, I know there
is no political will to rein in spending and borrowing.
Stansberry Research: Yes... we all need insurance from that.
Do you think at least large institutional investors, like mutual fund
companies, understand gold?
Hunt: Absolutely not. They are just as ignorant about gold as the
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T H E S TA N S B E R R Y R E S E A R C H G O L D I N V E S T O R S M A N U A L
T H E S TA N S B E R R Y R E S E A R C H G O L D I N V E S T O R S M A N U A L
anything. And Im going to catch hell for saying this, but they arent worth anything because this time is different.
I know this time is different is a dirty phrase in the investment
business but given the U.S. debt situation, our runaway entitlement spending, Europes massive debt problems, and the emergence of Asia as a wealthy gold accumulator this is a different
gold market than any market weve ever seen. I dont place any
value on any past price action here... or any price projections... or
any attempts to value it.
You cant value gold like a stock... where youd say Ill pay 10
times earnings for gold. You cant value it like a rental property
and say Ill pay eight times annual rent for gold.
The important thing for investors is to forget about the noise you
hear on the Internet and television, and just steadily accumulate
ounces of gold. Try to buy a little more each quarter or each year.
Dont see it as an investment. See it as money... as real wealth you
can hold in your hand. Thats how its been seen for thousands of
years. It will eventually be re-discovered by the general public in
the coming years.
Stansberry Research: Thanks for your time.
Hunt: My pleasure.
T H E S TA N S B E R R Y R E S E A R C H G O L D I N V E S T O R S M A N U A L
T H E S TA N S B E R R Y R E S E A R C H G O L D I N V E S T O R S M A N U A L
T H E S TA N S B E R R Y R E S E A R C H G O L D I N V E S T O R S M A N U A L
If you dont own these sorts of hedges yet, I encourage you to buy
some... just like a homeowner buys insurance... or just like youd
buckle your seatbelt before driving your car.
Take the wealthy investors approach, buy gold and silver... and
hope the time never comes for you to have to cash in the gains.
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T H E S TA N S B E R R Y R E S E A R C H G O L D I N V E S T O R S M A N U A L
T H E S TA N S B E R R Y R E S E A R C H G O L D I N V E S T O R S M A N U A L
course, paper has often been used for money because its convenient
for governments and political purposes.
But gold is ideally suited because it possesses all five characteristics of
good money that Aristotle pointed out back in the fourth-century B.C.
First, its durable. Money needs to be durable for obvious reasons. It
needs to last and not disintegrate in your pocket or in a bank vault.
This is why you cant use a commodity like wheat as money... It rots,
it can be eaten by pests, and just wont last very long.
Second, gold is divisible. Good money must be divisible to pay for
items of different value. Its why you cant use diamonds or famous
artwork as money... You cant divide them up without destroying their
value.
Third, its convenient, which is why other elements like copper or lead
arent good money... it takes too much of them to be of value. Can you
imagine carrying around hundreds of dollars worth of copper or lead
to make a purchase?
Fourth, gold is consistent. This is why you cant use real estate as
money. Every piece of real estate is different from another, whereas
one piece of gold is exactly like every other piece of gold.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, gold has value in and of itself.
Paper has next to no intrinsic value of its own, which is why paper is
such terrible money.
For all these reasons, I suspect that within a generation and probably much sooner at this point gold will again be used as money in
day-to-day transactions.
Stansberry Research: You mentioned paper money has little
intrinsic value. Can you elaborate on why this is so important?
Why is paper money in particular so terrible?
Casey: Well, theres actually a sixth reason that Aristotle didnt
mention, because it wasnt relevant in his context, but it explains
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T H E S TA N S B E R R Y R E S E A R C H G O L D I N V E S T O R S M A N U A L
T H E S TA N S B E R R Y R E S E A R C H G O L D I N V E S T O R S M A N U A L
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T H E S TA N S B E R R Y R E S E A R C H G O L D I N V E S T O R S M A N U A L
T H E S TA N S B E R R Y R E S E A R C H G O L D I N V E S T O R S M A N U A L
The biggies typically have been around a long time and have fairly stable businesses. They have a mix of assets around the world.
Their market caps are in the billions of dollars. This means they
are less volatile than smaller companies.
They are not without risk, however. Mining is a tough business...
and getting tougher. These stocks make bad long-term holdings.
A big fall in the price of the commodity they produce can send
their shares lower. Likewise, shares might stall if increases in their
costs of production outpace increases in the price of the commodity they produce.
Gold Explorers
If gold producers rally, gold explorers could go bonkers.
Unlike gold producers, gold explorers generally dont have an
operating mine. Theyre somewhere on the path from being a stock
promoter with a dream to being a team of geologists with some
leases and a dream.
They burn cash, dilute their shareholders, and often shut their
doors within a few years. But occasionally, they turn out to be
10-baggers. That keeps speculators coming back for more.
And when folks get enthusiastic about gold stocks, theyll send
these junior gold stocks way up. From the start of 2010 to early
2011, GDX rose 40%. GDXJ a fund that holds a basket of small
and medium-sized gold stocks rose more than 70%.
These stocks fall harder, too. After the 2010-2011 rally stalled,
GDX fell about 65%. GDXJ fell 80%.
Bullion
On the other end of the risk spectrum is real, hold in your hand
gold bullion...
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T H E S TA N S B E R R Y R E S E A R C H G O L D I N V E S T O R S M A N U A L
T H E S TA N S B E R R Y R E S E A R C H G O L D I N V E S T O R S M A N U A L
T H E S TA N S B E R R Y R E S E A R C H G O L D I N V E S T O R S M A N U A L
Take a look at the chart below. You can see that gold miners (measured by the HUI index) have underperformed gold, while Royal
Gold has outperformed.
As with gold miners, it has been hard to get the timing right with
royalty stocks over the past two years. But if the gold price rises,
these stocks could soar.
If youre thinking about investing in gold, make sure you keep this
toolkit handy.
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PART II
22
24
Fees*
0.40%
Market
Value
(USD)
$31 billion
Bullion
Type
0.25%
$7 billion
Bullion
0.00%
$3.4 billion
Bullion
0.35%
$1.7 billion
Bullion
0.39%
$994.2 million
Bullion
0.00%
$886.2 million
Bullion
0.60%
$875 million
Bullion
0.39%
$57 million
Bullion
0.75%
$146.8 million
Futures
0.75%
$158.4 million
Futures
0.95%
$308 million
Futures
1.00%
$56.3 million
Futures
0.30%
$13.2 million
Futures
0.75%
$9.1 million
Futures
0.75%
$1.8 million
Futures
*Does not include brokerage fees **Designed to return twice the annual return of gold
What does this all add up to, besides a lot of confusing choices?
Well, these funds are there to make
the banks money... not you. So if I
were adding a precious-metal fund
to my own account, I would stick
27
to the big bullion funds. They track the spot price well and are
liquid enough to buy and sell easily.
Theres no substitute for real gold. But if you cant or wont go
out and buy bullion, the bullion funds are the next best thing.
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30
Shares in large gold-producing companies fall under the long-term capital gains tax rate of 15%. An investor
looking to keep his hard-earned gold
returns away from the taxman should
consider a gold stock for his taxable account... rather than buying a gold ETF.
The savings can be significant...
Lets say you buy $50,000 worth
of a gold ETF. You hold it for three
years. Gold goes on a bull run during
your holding period, doubling in
price. Your gold ETF stake is worth
$100,000, meaning youre sitting on
$50,000 in profits. If you decide to
sell your gold ETF stake, youll have
to hand over $14,000 (28% tax rate x
$50,000) to Uncle Sam.
Another Twist in
the IRS Code
The IRS does not allow
folks to hold collectibles in
their IRA accounts. This
rule is to keep folks from
placing their life savings
into a Picasso or something
like that. But for whatever
reason, the IRS does allow
you to place gold ETFs into
your IRA.
Thats right. Repeat after
us, The IRS sees gold
ETFs as collectibles. The
IRS does not allow you to
place collectibles into your
IRA... But the IRS will allow you to place gold ETFs
into your IRA.
So if you want a low-tax bet
on straight gold bullion,
put a conventional gold
I dont know about you, but the less I have to pass onto Uncle Sam
to finance bank bailouts, welfare handouts, wars, and other ridiculous boondoggles, the better.
Now, before you get excited about tax-advantaged gold, be aware
that gold stocks are more volatile than gold itself. These compa32
nies are sensitive to borrowing costs, fuel prices, and wild swings
in profit margins caused by the ever-changing gold price.
As with all tax-related questions, its best to consult with your own
advisor before taking any major action. But if you want a low-tax
way to get into gold and you dont mind a little volatility, consider
the gold-stock fund GDX.
33
Clark: You can certainly pay with cash. In that scenario, youll be
going to your local coin shop.
Stansberry Research: Once youve bought it, where do you
store it?
Clark: The easiest way to store gold is in a safe deposit box at the
bank. But you can only get to the gold when the bank is open, and
youre not insured if the bank gets robbed. If you do decide to use
a safe deposit box, make sure you use a local bank. You want to be
able to get it in an emergency.
Another option is to hide it in your house, which is good for small
amounts of gold. Avoid jewelry boxes or cookie jars. The risk here
is fire or flood. You could consider a safe, bolted to the floor. Talk
to a bonded safe company. Or look for safes online with tags like
floor safe or personal safe or home safe. Sentry is probably
the leading brand. And safes dont have to be expensive they
start around $150.
If you get a safe, put it somewhere you can place something over it,
like a refrigerator, because you dont want it visible to strangers or easy
to find if youre robbed. And for obvious reasons, you should install it
yourself. Some of the kits make it easier than you might expect.
Stansberry Research: What about midnight gardening?
Clark: This got its name from people burying their gold at night so
their neighbors wouldnt see them digging. If you bury your gold in
the daylight, find another reason to dig like fixing a pipe or removing a stump.
The advantage to burying your gold is that you dont have to worry
about it getting stolen or losing it if your house burns down. But make
sure you store it in something airtight and waterproof, like a hikers
water bottle or a bit of PVC pipe with capped ends.
Find somewhere on your property that youll remember but that isnt
easy to guess if someone learns youve buried something valuable.
39
40
coins. The most widely traded gold coin is the U.S. Gold Eagle,
Van said. If youre new to gold, and you want to physically own
gold bullion, the U.S. Gold Eagles are the way to go.
(Its easy to buy Gold Eagles. Ill show you where and how at the end
of this essay.)
I asked Van why we should want these in particular... For example,
my parents owned Krugerrands (which are gold coins from South
Africa). I asked Van why we shouldnt own Krugerrands or Canadian Maple Leafs.
Well, you can own those you mentioned... But when a customer
sells a Krugerrand or a Maple Leaf, a dealer has to fill out a 1099
Form about who bought and sold and mail it to the government. We
dont have to do that for Gold Eagles.
All things being equal... the less reporting requirements, the better.
(You can also hold these coins in IRA accounts.)
Also, importantly, theyre the most liquid coins... so while you
might not find a full-price buyer for a Mexican Peso gold coin,
theres always a buyer for an American Gold Eagle you can always
get a good price.
How much should people hold in gold bullion like Gold Eagles versus stocks or rare coins?
Right now, personally, Im about equally split between those
three... I might have a bit more in gold stocks. For customers, its
their decision. If you want to have a speculative element to it, you
should have gold stocks and rare coins. Some people dont want rare
coins. And some people just want bullion. Its your call.
How should people store the stu?
Once again, its your call... You can put it in a safety deposit box, in
a home safe, or bury it in the backyard. One thing, I do not recommend having a dealer store or hold it for you.
What about shipping? Any concerns?
42
44
If youre just starting out in gold, or if youd like to add more money to your gold position, Van laid out your path...
1. Hold bullion rst. U.S. Gold Eagle gold coins are a
great starting point. To juice your portfolio from there...
2. Hold rare coins. They soared 1,195% in the last gold
bull market. And also...
3. Hold gold stocks. GDX (major gold miners) and GDXJ
(junior gold miners) get you exposure to more than 100
gold companies.
Choose your mix of these three based on your risk tolerance.
45
48
The most active months for trading gold futures contracts are the
current month, the next month, and
the month after that... along with
every February, April, June, August,
October, and December. In other
words, you have lots of choices for
when to get your gold.
But if you want to get your gold
as soon as possible, buy a futures
contract for the current month.
That contract will close (settle)
on the third-to-last business day of
the month. Buy your contract and
deposit the full amount into your
account. In less than a month, youll
be the proud owner of 100 ounces of
gold.
Now, you dont have to deposit the
whole amount right away.
Youll probably have to put down
something like 10%. But if gold declines in price, youll be required to
deposit more or risk getting kicked
out of the contract at a loss.
You wont pay any markup on the gold, but you will pay a commission ranging between $30 and $80. (These rates are paid
per contract, so thats not even one-tenth of one percent.)
50
Option No. 2:
Bullion Vault
Another way to buy gold
cheaply and quickly is to
buy from BullionVault.
At BullionVault, you can
buy gold and have it held
in good delivery form.
BullionVault charges a
maximum commission
rate of 0.5%, which falls
progressively to 0.05%
depending on how much
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52
You can buy Perth Mint Certificates. Its the easiest, most practical
way to hold gold overseas.
Buy a certificate, receive it in the mail, and boom! You now own
gold offshore.
Specifically, with a Perth Mint Certificate, you own physical gold
held at the Perth Mint in Australia. Its guaranteed by the government there, its fully insured by Lloyds of London, and it has both
internal audits and independent audits. Ive personally been to the
Perth Mint and have seen the gold.
I wanted to verify the specifics, so I got in touch with Glen... Glen,
can a Perth Mint Certificate be redeemed through you [at Asset
Strategies International] in the States? Can someone get their cash
through you?
Glen replied, The answer to both questions is YES!
Now thats convenient: Your gold is in Australia, out of reach of the
U.S. government. But you can easily cash it in right here in the States.
Many people prefer to hold physical gold themselves, believing
that the safest place for it is in their possession... And thats fine,
too. To each his own. But Perth Mint Certificates are probably the
easiest, safest way to buy gold and hold it overseas.
You are in full compliance with U.S. law. But at the same time, by
holding gold offshore, you have made it more dicult for the government to reach into your account and take your wealth.
For more on Perth Mint Certificates, call Michael or Rich Checkan at
Asset Strategies (800-831-0007) or e-mail info@assetstrategies.com.
53
For example, if you wanted to, you could carry 100 24-karat gold
necklaces each piece weighing one to five ounces out of the
country, and you wouldnt run afoul of the currency laws. And then
you could convert them to money at most gold dealers in the world.
Its like legal gold smuggling.
Now, I dont recommend doing this on any scale. First off, youd
look like Mr. T. going through customs. And secondly, its just not
cost-effective... Most 24-karat jewelry is handmade and costs a
premium over the price of gold. But a gold dealer will only pay you a
discount to the gold price.
Finally, Im not a lawyer, but Im sure that if you tried to bring a
load of high-end jewelry across the border, someone would decide
youre somehow breaking a law.
However, for a small portion of your gold, jewelry is an interesting
idea...
My friend and publisher of The Palm Beach Letter Tom Dyson,
was also at the lunch, and he was considering buying jewelry for his
wife for this same reason.
My wife would like some jewelry... If I bought this, my wife would
get something she wants to wear... and Ill be confident that its not
worthless. It has real gold value.
With this idea, you can keep your significant other happy while
youre confident you own something with real value. And in the extreme case, if we see another 1933 again, your gold should be safe.
Its an interesting idea. For a small portion of your gold holdings,
jewelry is worth considering...
To learn more about jewelry and other asset diversification strategies, we recommend you talk to Michael. He is extremely knowledgeable and has offered to answer any questions for Stansberry
Research readers. Visit his website at www.assetstrategies.com or
call (800) 831-0007.
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dont look quite right if you know what youre looking for... And
its pretty easy for a professional to spot them as counterfeit.
So theres definitely counterfeit stuff out there, and it can be a big
problem if you dont know what youre doing.
Stansberry Research: Whats your best advice for avoiding
these problems?
Simmons: Its simple.
First, dont buy ingots.
They were popular in the past, but once coins like the Krugerrand,
Maple Leaf, and the U.S. Eagle began trading in the U.S. in the late
1970s and 1980s, these coins have dominated the bullion market.
These are what everyone trades... theyre super-liquid... and the
premiums are reasonable compared to most ingots. So its simply
not worth the risk to buy ingots to try to save a little money.
Second, I suggest buying your bullion through a reputable dealer.
The risks with Eagles, Maple Leafs, or Krugerrands are quite low,
as I mentioned. But why take on unnecessary risks?
Third, if youre going to purchase rare and relatively expensive
coins, its even more important to buy them from a reputable
dealer, and only buy those graded by PCGS. I cant emphasize this
enough.
If youre going to spend a lot of money on an item, you owe it to
yourself to ensure you get what youre paying for. Naturally, as a
founder of PCGS, Im not unbiased here. But theres a reason were
the most trusted grading service in the world.
I talk to people all day long who have sought out really good
deals and end up hurting themselves. Its a clich, but its particularly true in the rare-coin market: If a deal sounds too good to be
true, it probably is.
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Editors note: Van would be happy to speak with Stansberry Research readers about making coin and collectible investments. You
can reach him at (800) 759-7575 or (949) 567-1325, or by e-mail at
info@davidhall.com. (We receive no compensation for mentioning
Van. We have been working with him for several years now. Van
has always treated our readers well.)
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A COMMON-SENSE GUIDE TO
BUYING AND SELLING GOLD
By Stansberry Research
Editors note: The content youre about to read veers from our
normal format. Many of the key, timeless ideas on gold that weve
published over the years have been featured in The Stansberry
Digest, our excellent e-letter for paid subscribers. Weve compiled
some of our favorite excerpts below
We believe physical gold is the best way to protect your money from the governments treachery... Your gold is no one elses
liability. So weve been telling our readers to buy gold coins since
at least 2003, and we get more questions on the topic than almost
any other. Below are the whys, hows, and wheres of buying gold
that clanks.
On gold and nancial turmoil: Gold has a unique and timeless
role in the worlds markets. It is the ultimate store of value. Thus,
while it might not be an investment, it is the ultimate form of
savings.
Additionally, in a world awash in paper money, where debt forms
the basis of most commerce, an ounce of gold is no one elses liability. This makes it uniquely attractive during periods of financial
turmoil.
Porter, March 14, 2008
On bullion vs. rare coins: Buying collectible coins or collectibles of any kind is a specialists game (Steve Sjuggerud is our
specialist). If youre not a specialist, or if youre not working with a
specialist you can trust, youre very likely to get burned meaning
youll pay far too much for the coins you buy, and youll end up
selling your coins at a dumb price.
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I collect wine, not gold coins. And I can tell you the price of the wine
I collect has absolutely nothing to do with the price of grape juice.
Prices for fine, collectible wines have soared in the last eight years,
simply because drinking wine has become very popular recently.
In the past, the same thing has happened in the rare coin market
most recently in the late 1980s. Coin manias can be extraordinary...
The prices for certain coins can become completely unhinged.
If you want to invest in a very liquid, easy-to-buy, and easy-to-sell
monetary commodity, you should buy bullion. When I buy gold, I
buy bullion because I want to protect my savings against inflation
and I have no interest in becoming a coin collector.
On the other hand, coin collectors can make money whether the
price of gold goes up or down. Gold-coin collecting is a good hedge
against inflation. Its a non-correlated asset (meaning it doesnt
follow the value of the stock market). From time to time, rare gold
coins will make you a tremendous amount of money and theyve
done pretty well since 2003 when we began recommending them.
But rare-coin investing is a completely different art than simply
buying gold.
Porter, March 12, 2008
The U.S. Mint has run out of one-ounce American Eagle gold coins.
And its been rationing Silver Eagles because of the high demand.
The U.S. mint sold 60,000 one-ounce gold coins this month, up
from 47,000 in July and 13,000 in June. When gold fell from the
$900s to the $700s, small buyers didnt sell the way they usually
do. They bought.
Abraham Lincoln may have been an even worse president than
FDR, but he had one thing right: You cant fool all of the people
all of the time. People know the government is destroying their
currency, so theyre turning it in for gold, which is exactly the right
thing to do.
Dan Ferris, August 23, 2008
So if you buy gold, even at the wrong price, you will be rewarded eventually. Thats because gold is ethically, morally, and traditionally and
for sound physical reasons the best form of money ever created.
Of course, how much you will be rewarded depends upon the moral
and economic failings of the paper money systems gold competes with.
I would judge those failings to be approximately total.
By the time my children are having children, lets say 25 years from
now, I would expect the paper dollar to be nearly worthless. Because
you measure the price of gold in paper dollars, you would then expect
the price of gold to be nearly infinite. Thats only measuring these
things in terms of nominal prices, which are meaningless in the real
world.
So if you look at the value of gold and not the price, I think youll have a
much better sense of whats happening. The value of gold has remained
almost completely unchanged over thousands and thousands of years.
And this latest bull market in gold has not changed the metals fundamental value.
An ounce of gold should be worth approximately the same amount of
labor and materials as the finest mens suit. That has always been what
gold has been worth. So whats the competitive price of the finest mens
suit?
As a connoisseur of mens clothing, I can get a well-tailored suit for
about $1,500 at the low end. It could be as much as $5,000 at the high
end. So I think somewhere in that range is a fair price for an ounce of
gold. Though the nominal price is bouncing all over the place, I truly
believe the value of gold remains unchanged.
None of the latest market gyrations has changed my view of the intrinsic utility of gold. I dont expect the true value of gold to change much at
all over time. I expect that its relationship with other paper currencies
will change dramatically in golds favor. And I expect that will happen
soon.
Porter and Sean Goldsmith, Digest Premium, April 18, 2013
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Last month, the greatest investor on Earth attacked one of the financial worlds sacred cows... and an army of bloggers and self-appointed
pundits flooded the Internet with condemnation.
Warren Buffett, as you probably know, is an investing legend. Hes
one of the few people to amass a billion-dollar fortune mostly on his
ability to invest in the stock market.
Every year, he publishes an annual letter to shareholders of his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway. Its one of the most widely read
commentaries in the financial world. (You can find them here: www.
berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html.)
In this years letter (2011), he included a page-long takedown of one
of the most emotionally charged investment choices people make
holding gold.
He ridiculed the idea of owning gold... comparing its buyers to the
ignorant folks who were wiped out during the legendary 17th century
tulip mania in the Netherlands
What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the
ranks of the fearful will grow. During the past decade, that
belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on
its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting
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Heres a chart showing that. When the real return on a five-year U.S.
Treasury note (the interest rate minus the consumer price index)
dips and stays in the negative return area, gold thrives.
In my Retirement Millionaire, we keep an asset category in our portfolio called Chaos Hedges. This is where we hold investments that
will protect us during unusual times. Depending on an individuals
circumstances... a person should limit this category to no more than
15% of his assets (and usually much less).
For example, if violence broke out in the streets and the paper currency of the U.S. government was worthless, youd need to barter
with gold or silver coins to get what you wanted. (I dont believe
this is likely... but you should always have an emergency plan.)
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These days, everybody loves to read and talk about the next
financial crisis.
But what should you actually do to prepare for a financial crisis?
Ill tell you what in a moment. But first, lets talk about Howard Marks...
Marks, the founder of Oaktree Capital Management, is the latest
voice to join the next financial crisis discussion.
Marks is one of the greatest investors of our time. His book, The
Most Important Thing, is one of the best investment books ever
written. His shareholder letters are must-reads.
Marks November 2013 letter to investors, is about the excesses in
credit markets he saw building up in 2007... and sees building up
again today. He says the current market has gathered steam since
the 2008-2009 crisis, but admits its not anywhere near the same
degree of craziness as it was in 2006-2007.
I agree. There are similarities between todays financial environment and the pre-crisis environment. In his letter, Marks noted
that low interest rates are making it unattractive to invest in
bonds, which is driving people to invest in risky assets with little
regard to the value theyre getting. This is what caused the 20082009 credit crisis.
Another well-known and highly credible voice is warning us about
the next crisis: legendary value investor Seth Klarman. Most
people have never heard of Klarman, but hes one of the greatest
investors in the world.
At the Grants Interest Rate Observer conference in October 2013
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Stansberry Research: John, youre one of the worlds top experts on gold and silver stocks. And follow several royalty companies. Before we get into the value of owning these stocks, can
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this case, both pay no interest. And in this case, a rational investor
would choose gold. The gold is still the same lump of metal, but a
government could print money and make the paper money worthless. It cant print gold.
Money flows where its treated best. If there are high interest rates,
gold does poorly, as money flows where its treated well. If interest
rates are low or zero, money flows toward gold. Gold cant compete with high interest rates. But it is extremely competitive with
zero-percent interest.
But wait, you say. How did gold run from $100 to $800 in the
late 1970s?
The Real Deal... Considering Ination
If youre just looking at the current interest rate, youre not getting
the whole picture. You have to consider inflation as well, to get
to the real interest rate. For example, banks might pay you 1%
interest. But inflation may be 2%. So the real interest rate the
interest rate AFTER inflation would actually be -1%. And that
explains it all...
Investors lose money to inflation by putting it in the bank. When
faced with -1% interest in cash, or 0% interest in gold, the smart
money is choosing to get out of cash and into gold.
Back in 1979, short-term interest rates were 8%, but inflation was
13%. That means your real return was negative 5% a year on
your cash. Gold went from $100 to $800 in no time.
Then, at the end of the decade, Fed Chairman Paul Volker drove
short-term interest rates through the roof. By 1981, short-term
interest rates were 15%, and inflation was back into the single digits. That means investors got an outstanding real return on their
money... and gold tanked, back into the $300-plus range by 1982.
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You wake up in the morning, turn on the news, and get a sick feeling in your stomach...
The stock market is crashing again. Another big Wall Street bank
has failed. Your 401(k) has lost another 25%. Its bleeding value
every week.
Your dream of early retirement is history. Youve lost so much
money in stocks that even a regular retirement is in jeopardy. If
you live a long life, theres no way youll have enough money.
This is the financial disaster scenario that terrifies a lot of investors. Its what kept people up at night during the 2008 credit
crisis.
Could it happen again? Could another crisis cause the value of the
U.S. dollar to collapse? Could the stock market suffer another epic
decline?
Many people say the answer to these questions is yes.
Fortunately, I dont need to know the answer to these questions...
and neither do you.
The good news is that its very easy to buy insurance against financial disasters like these. I personally own this insurance. Many of
the smartest, wealthiest people I know own it, too. It could mean
the difference between a comfortable, early retirement... and just
barely getting by.
First, its important to agree on what insurance is. In my book,
buying insurance comes down to spending a little bit of money to
hedge yourself against a disaster.
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position by 50%, leaving you with $47,500. But lets say this disaster
also causes gold to rise to $7,000 an ounce. In February 2015, gold
went for $1,265 per ounce. A rise to $7,000 would produce a morethan-fivefold increase in the value of your gold. It would cause the
value of your $5,000 gold stake to rise to about $28,455.
Post-financial disaster, youre left with $75,955 ($47,500 from
stocks and bonds + $28,455 from gold). The disaster still hits you,
but not nearly as hard. Your insurance played a big role in limiting
the damage.
But what if you think the chances of financial disaster are higher
than unlikely? What if youre more worried than the average
Joe?
If you are, simply increase the insurance portion of your portfolio. Instead of a 5% position in gold, you could increase it to 20%.
If the previously mentioned financial disaster were to strike your
$100,000 portfolio weighted 80% in stocks/bonds and 20% in
gold, the math works out like this:
The 50% decline in your $80,000 stocks/bond position leaves you
with $40,000. Golds increase to $7,000 an ounce makes your
$20,000 gold position increase to $113,821.
Your large gold insurance position actually produces a net gain
in this scenario. Youre left with $153,821... an increase of more
than 50%.
As you can see, the larger your gold-insurance policy, the better
you do in the financial-disaster scenario. But if the financial disaster doesnt strike, you wont benefit as much because you hold less
money in stocks and bonds, which do well if the economy carries
on. And keep in mind... it would take a serious financial disaster to
send stocks down by 50% and gold to $7,000.
Depending on what you think the chances of financial disaster are,
you can adjust your gold-insurance policy. It all depends on your
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Louis James: If one of the reasons to own gold is that its real
its not paper, its not simultaneously someone elses liability
why own gold stocks?
Doug Casey: Leverage. Gold stocks are problematic as investments. Thats true of all resource stocks, especially stocks in exploration companies, as opposed to producers. If you want to make
a proper investment, the way to do that is to follow the dictates of
Graham and Dodd, using the method Warren Buffett has proven
to be so successful over many years.
Unfortunately, resource stocks in general and metals-exploration
stocks in particular just dont lend themselves to such methodologies. They are another class of security entirely.
James: Security may not be the right word. As I was reading
the latest edition of Graham and Dodds classic book on securities
analysis, I realized that their minimum criteria for investment
wouldnt even apply to the gold majors. The business is just too
volatile. You cant apply standard metrics.
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Casey: Its just impossible. For one thing, they cannot grow consistently because their assets are always depleting. Nor can they
predict what their rate of exploration success is going to be.
James: Right. As an asset, a mine is something that gets used up,
as you dig it up and sell it off.
Casey: Exactly. And the underlying commodity prices can fluctuate wildly for all sorts of reasons. Mining stocks and resource
stocks in general have to be viewed as speculations, as opposed
to investments.
But that can be a good thing. For example, many of the best speculations have a political element to them. Governments are constantly creating distortions in the market, causing misallocations
of capital. Whenever possible, the speculator tries to find out what
these distortions are because their consequences are predictable.
They result in trends you can bet on. Its like the government is
guaranteeing your success because you can almost always count
on the government to do the wrong thing.
The classic example, not just coincidentally, concerns gold. The
U.S. government suppressed its price for decades, while creating
huge numbers of dollars before it exploded upward in 1971. Speculators that understood some basic economics positioned themselves accordingly.
As applied to metals stocks, governments are constantly distorting
the monetary situation. And gold in particular, being the markets
alternative to government money, is always affected by that. So
gold stocks are really a way to short government or go long on
government stupidity, as it were.
The bad news is that governments act chaotically, spastically. The
beast jerks to the tugs on its strings held by its various puppeteers.
So its hard to predict price movements in the short term. You
can only bet on the end results of chronic government monetary
stupidity.
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The good news is that, for that very same reason, these stocks are
extremely volatile. That makes it possible, from time to time, to get
not just doubles or triples, but 10-baggers, 20-baggers, and even
100-to-1 shots in these mining stocks.
That kind of upside makes up for the fact that these stocks are
lousy investments and that you will lose money on most of them,
if you hold them long enough. Most are best described as burning
matches.
James: One of our mantras: Volatility can be your best friend.
Casey: Yes, volatility can be your best friend, as long as your
timing is reasonable. I dont mean timing tops and bottoms. No
one can do that. I mean spotting the trend and betting on it when
others are not, so you can buy low to later sell high. If you chase
momentum and excitement, if you run with the crowd, buying
when others are buying, youre guaranteed to lose. You have to be
a contrarian. In this business, youre either a contrarian or roadkill. When everyone is talking about these stocks on TV, you know
the masses are interested, and that means theyve gone to a level at
which you should be a seller and not a buyer.
That makes it more a game of playing the psychology of the market
than doing securities analysis.
Im not sure how many thousands of gold-mining stocks there are
in the world today. Id guess about 3,000. But most of them are
junk. If they have any gold, its mainly in the words written on the
stock certificates. So in addition to knowing when to buy and when
to sell, your choice of individual stocks has to be intelligent, too.
Remember, most mining companies are burning matches.
James: All they do is spend money.
Casey: Exactly. Thats because most mining companies are really
exploration companies. They are looking for viable deposits, which
is like looking for a needle in a haystack. Finding gold is one thing.
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most obscure and bizarre places all over the world. Thats because
of the 92 naturally occurring elements in the periodic table, gold
was probably the first metal that man discovered and made use of.
The reason for that is simple: Gold is the most inert of the metals.
James: Because it doesnt react easily and form compounds, you
can find the pure metal in nature.
Casey: Right. You can find it in its pure form, and it doesnt
degrade and it doesnt rust. In fact, of all the elements, gold is not
only the most inert, its also the most ductile and the most malleable. Other than silver, its the best conductor of both heat and
electricity, and the most reflective. In todays world, that makes it
a high-tech metal. New uses are found for it weekly. It has many
uses besides its primary one as money and its secondary use as
jewelry. But it was probably also mans first metal.
But for that same reason, all the high-grade, easy-to-find gold
deposits have already been found. There have to be a few left to be
discovered. But by and large, were going to larger-volume, lower-grade, no-see-um-type deposits at this point. Gold mining is
no longer a business in which, like in the movie The Treasure of
the Sierra Madre, you can get a couple of guys, some picks and
mules, and go out and find the mother lode. Unfortunately, now,
its usually a large-scale, industrial earth-moving operation next to
a chemical plant.
James: They operate on very slender margins, and they can be
rendered unprofitable by a slight shift in government regulations
or taxes. So we want to own these companies... why?
Casey: You want them strictly as speculative vehicles that offer
the potential for 10, 100, or even 1,000 times returns on your
money. Getting 1,000 times your money is extraordinary, of
course. You have to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. But
people have done it. It has happened not just once or twice, but a
number of times that individual stocks have moved by that much.
Thats the good news. The bad news is that these things fluctuate
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down even more dramatically than they fluctuate up. They are
burning matches that can actually go to zero. And when they go
down, they usually drop at least twice as fast as they went up.
James: Thats true, but as bad as a total loss is, you can only lose
100%. But theres no such limit to the upside. A 100% gain is only
a double, and we do much better than that for subscribers numerous times per year.
Casey: And as shareholders in everything from Enron to AIG to
Lehman Brothers, and many more, have found out: Even the biggest, most solid companies can go to zero.
James: So what youre telling me is that the answer to Why
gold? is really quite different to the answer to Why gold stocks?
These are in completely different classes, bought for completely
different reasons.
Casey: Yes. You buy gold, the metal, because youre prudent.
Its for safety, liquidity, insurance. The gold stocks, even though
they explore for or mine gold, are at the polar opposite of the
investment spectrum. You buy those for extreme volatility and
the chance it creates for spectacular gains. Its rather paradoxical,
actually.
James: You buy gold for safety and gold stocks specifically to
profit from their un-safety.
Casey: Exactly. They really are total opposites, even though its
the same commodity in question. Its odd. But then, life is often
stranger than fiction.
James: And its being a contrarian timing in the sense of making a rational decision about a trend in evident motion that helps
stack the odds in your favor. It allows you to guess when market
volatility will, on average, head upward, making it possible for you
to buy low and sell high.
Casey: You know, I first started looking at gold stocks back in the
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early 1970s. In those days, South African stocks were the blue chips
of the mining industry. As a country, South Africa mined about 60%
of all the gold mined in the world, and costs were very low.
Gold was controlled at $35 per ounce until Nixon closed the gold
window in 1971. But some of the South Africans were able to mine
it for $20 an ounce or less. They were paying huge dividends.
Gold had run up from $35 to $200 in early 1974, then corrected
down to $100 by 1976. It had come off 50%. But at the same time
that gold was bottoming around $100, they had some serious riots
in Soweto. So the gold stocks got a double hit: falling gold prices
and fear of revolution in South Africa.
That made it possible, in those days, to buy into short-lived, highcost mining companies very cheaply. The stocks of the marginal
companies were yielding current dividends of 50%-75%. They
were penny stocks in those days. They no longer exist; theyve all
been merged into mining-finance houses long since then.
Three names that I remember from those days were Leslie, Bracken, Grootvlei. I owned a lot of shares in them. If you bought Leslie
for $0.80 a share, youd expect, based on previous dividends, to
get about $0.60 a share in that year.
But then gold started flying upward, the psychology regarding
South Africa changed, and by 1980, the next real peak, you were
getting several times what you paid for the stock, in dividends
alone, per year.
James: Wow. I can think of some leveraged companies that might
be able to deliver that sort of performance, if gold goes where we
think it will. So where do you think we are in the current trend
or metals cycle? Youve spoken of the Stealth, Wall of Worry, and
Mania Phases of a bull market for metals do you still think of our
market in those terms?
Casey: Thats the big question, isnt it? Well, the last major bottom
in this sector was from 1998 to 2002. Many of these junior mining
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Where does that leave us? Well, as you know, I think gold is going
to go much, much higher. And that is going to direct a lot of attention toward these gold stocks. When people get gold fever, they are
not just driven by greed, theyre usually driven by fear as well. So
you get both of the most powerful market motivators working for
you at once. Its a rare class of securities that can benefit from fear
and greed at once.
Remember that the Federal Reserves pumping up of the money supply ignited a huge bubble in tech stocks, and then an even
more massive global bubble in real estate which is over for along
time, incidentally. But theyre still creating tons of dollars. That
will inevitably ignite other asset bubbles.
Where? I cant say for certain, but I say the odds are extremely
high that as gold goes up... a lot of this funny money is going to be
directed into these gold stocks, which are not just a microcap area
of the market but a nanocap area of the market.
Ive said it before, and Ill say it again: When the public gets the bit
in its teeth and wants to buy gold stocks, its going to be like trying
to siphon the contents of the Hoover Dam through a garden hose.
Gold stocks, as a class, are going to be explosive. Now, youve got
to remember that most of them are junk. Most will never, ever find
an economical deposit. But hopes and dreams drive them, not reality. And even without merit, they can still go 10, 20, or 30 times
your entry price. And the companies that actually have the goods
can go much higher than that.
At the moment, gold-stock prices are not as cheap, in either relative or absolute terms, as they were at the turn of the century,
nor last fall. But given that the Mania Phase is still ahead, they are
good speculations right now especially the ones that have actually discovered gold deposits that look economical.
James: So if you buy good companies now, with good projects,
good management, working in stable jurisdictions, with a couple
years of operating cash to see them through the Wall of Worry
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fluctuations... If you buy these and hold for the Mania Phase, you
should come out very well. But you cant blink and get stampeded
out of your positions when the market fluctuates sharply.
Casey: Thats exactly right. If you buy a quality exploration company or a quality development company (which is to say, a company that has found something and is advancing it toward production), those shares could still go down 10%, 20%, 30%, or even
50%. But ultimately, theres an excellent chance that that same
stock will go up by 10, 50, or even 100 times. I hate to use such
hard-to-believe numbers, but that is the way this market works.
When the coming resource bubble is ignited, there are excellent
odds youll be laughing all the way to the bank in a few years.
I should stress that Im not saying this is the perfect time to buy.
Were not at a market bottom, as we were in 2001, nor an interim bottom, like last November. And I cant say I know the Mania
Phase is just around the corner. But I think this is a very reasonable time to be buying these stocks. And its absolutely a good time
to start educating yourself about them. Theres just such a good
chance a massive bubble is going to be ignited in this area.
James: These are obviously the kinds of things we research, make
recommendations on, and teach about in our metals newsletters.
But one thing we should stress for nonsubscribers reading this interview is that this strategy applies only to the speculative portion
of your portfolio. No one should gamble with his rent money or the
money he has saved for college tuition, et cetera.
Casey: Right. The ideal speculators portfolio would be divided
into 10 areas, each totally different and not correlated with each
other. Each of these areas should have, in your subjective opinion,
the ability to move 1,000% in price.
Why is that? Because most of the time, were wrong when we pick
areas to speculate in, certainly in areas where you cant apply
Graham-Dodd-type logic. But if youre wrong on nine out of 10 of
them and it would be hard to do that badly then you at least
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PART III
Editors note: In this essay originally published in the November 12, 2009 edition of Stansberry Researchs free e-letter
DailyWealth Editor in Chief Brian Hunt explains how to perform the ultimate test of whether an asset is too popular or in
a bubble. A few time-specific numbers may be out of date by the
time you read this piece. But it contains an important lesson
one that will help to guide your decision on when to sell your
gold
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Warning on Mail-In
Gold Offers
By Dr. David Eifrig,
editor, Retirement Millionaire
Late night commercials
beg you to sell your
unwanted jewelry.
Unless youre in dire
circumstances, hold on to
your gold. If you absolutely need to sell your gold,
do some research first.
The most advertised
company seems to be
Cash 4 Gold. It claims
you can get cash fast
when you mail in your
gold, silver, platinum, or
diamonds to them.
We called Cash 4 Gold,
and the people there
Heres the thing: Gold fever has returned to America. A few commercials
on TV are offering cash for gold...
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PART IV
For many years now, its been clear that China would soon be pulling the strings in the U.S. financial system.
In 2015, the American people owe the Chinese government nearly
$1.5 trillion.
I know big numbers dont mean much to most people, but keep in
mind... this tab is now hundreds of billions of dollars more than
what the U.S. government collects in ALL income taxes (both corporate and individual) each year. Its basically a sum we can never,
ever hope to repay at least, not by normal means.
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Of course, the Chinese arent stupid. They realize we are both trapped.
We are stuck with an enormous debt we can never realistically
repay... And the Chinese are trapped with an outstanding loan they
can neither get rid of, nor hope to collect. So the Chinese government is now taking a secret and somewhat radical approach.
China has recently put into place a covert plan to get back as much
of its money as possible by extracting colossal sums from
both the United States government and ordinary citizens,
like you and me.
The Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) is
now engaged in a full-fledged currency war with the United States.
The ultimate goal as the Chinese have publicly stated is to create a new dominant world currency, dislodge the U.S. dollar from
its current reserve role, and recover as much of the $1.5 trillion the
U.S. government has borrowed as possible.
Lucky for us, we know whats going to happen. And we even have
a pretty good idea of how it will all unfold. How do we know so
much? Well, this isnt the first time the U.S. has tried to stiff its
foreign creditors.
Most Americans probably dont remember this, but our last big
currency war took place in the 1960s. Back then, French President
Charles de Gaulle denounced the U.S. government policy of printing overvalued U.S. dollars to pay for its trade deficits... which
allowed U.S. companies to buy European assets with dollars that
were artificially held up in value by a gold peg that was nothing
more than an accounting fiction. So de Gaulle took action...
In 1965, he took $150 million of his countrys dollar reserves and
redeemed the paper currency for U.S. gold from Ft. Knox. De
Gaulle even offered to send the French Navy to escort the gold
back to France. Today, this gold is worth about $12 billion.
Keep in mind... this occurred during a time when foreign governments could legally redeem their paper dollars for gold, but U.S.
citizens could not.
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And France was not the only nation to do this... Spain soon redeemed $60 million of U.S. dollar reserves for gold, and many
other nations followed suit. By March 1968, gold was flowing out
of the United States at an alarming rate.
By 1950, U.S. depositories held more gold than had ever been
assembled in one place in world history (roughly 702 million
ounces). But to manipulate our currency, the U.S. government was
willing to give away more than half of the countrys gold.
Its estimated that during the 1950s and early 1970s, we essentially
gave away about two-thirds of our nations gold reserves... around
400 million ounces... all because the U.S. government was trying
to defend the U.S. dollar at a fixed rate of $35 per ounce of gold.
In short, we gave away 400 million ounces of gold and got $14
billion in exchange. Today, that same gold would be worth $620
billion... a 4,330% difference.
Incredibly stupid, wouldnt you agree? This blunder cost the U.S.
much of its gold hoard.
When the history books are finally written, this chapter will go
down as one of our nations most incompetent political blunders.
Of course, as is typical with politicians, they managed to make a
bad situation even worse...
The root cause of the weakness in the U.S. dollar was easy to
understand. Americans were consuming far more than they were
producing. You could see this by looking at our governments
annual deficits, which were larger than ever and growing... thanks
to the gigantic new welfare programs and the Vietnam police action. You could also see this by looking at our trade deficit, which
continued to get bigger and bigger, forecasting a dramatic drop
(eventually) in the value of the U.S. dollar.
Of course, economic realities are never foremost on the minds of
politicians especially not Richard Nixons. On August 15, 1971,
he went on live television before the most popular show in America (Bonanza) and announced a new plan...
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For more than 30 years, since the start of the countrys Reform
Era in 1978, China has been selling (exporting) more goods than
it has imported.
Thats allowed the nation to stockpile trillions of dollars more
money than our entire monetary base totaled before the recent
financial crisis.
The way it works is simple to understand. When a Chinese business earns dollars by selling overseas, the law requires the company to hand those dollars over to the countrys central bank,
the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC). In return, the business gets
Chinese currency (called either the yuan or the renminbi) at a
fixed rate.
Theres nothing fair about this. The Chinese people do all the
work, and the Chinese government keeps all of the money. But
thats the way it goes.
At first, the dollar inflow was small because trade between the two
countries was tiny. In 1980, for example, Chinas foreign currency
reserves stood at approximately $2.5 billion. But since then, the
amount of foreign currency reserves held by the Chinese government has gone up nearly every year... and now stands at $3.2
TRILLION. Thats a 127,900% increase. Its simply astonishing to
look at the chart of the increase in currency reserves...
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In fact, not only has China become the worlds leading importer of
gold, it was already the worlds leading producer... by far. According to the most recent figures from the World Gold Council, China
produces nearly 50% more gold (about 300 tons per year) than the
second-place country... Australia. And guess what? Every single
ounce produced in China whether its dug out of the ground
by the government or a foreign company must, by law, be sold
directly back to the government.
The Chinese are now clearly on a path to accumulate so much gold
that one day soon, they will be able to restore the convertibility of
their currency into a precious metal... just as they were able to do a
century ago when the country was on the silver standard.
The West wasnt kind to China back then. The country was repeatedly looted and humiliated by Russia, Japan, Britain, and the
United States. But today, it is a different story...
Now, China is the fastest-growing country on Earth, with the
largest cash reserves on the planet. And as befits a first-rate power,
Chinas currency is on the path to being backed by gold.
China desperately wants to return to its status as one of the worlds
great powers... with one of the worlds great currencies. And China
knows that in this day and age when nearly all governments
around the globe are printing massive amounts of currency backed
by nothing but an empty promise it can gain a huge advantage
by backing its currency with a precious metal.
As the great financial historian Richard Russell wrote recently:
China wants the renminbi to be backed with a huge percentage
of gold, thereby making the renminbi the worlds best and most
trusted currency.
I know this will all sound crazy to most folks. But most folks
dont understand gold, or why it represents real, timeless
wealth. The Chinese do. And in my next essay, Ill provide more
evidence of how they are carrying out the largest gold accumulation plan of all time.
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This is why the Mining Journal said last November that it expects
China to amass some 5,000 tons of gold over the next five years.
I would not be surprised if it amasses twice that amount. As CNN
explained, The thing to remember here is that if China is going to
continue to purchase massive amounts of gold, the last thing they
want to do is make this information public, until they really have
to. The less they say, the cheaper the price theyll have to pay.
I recently interviewed the most successful gold and silver investor in the world, Eric Sprott, on this subject. Eric is a billionaire,
who made much of his fortune in silver. He runs Sprott Resource
Management, one of the worlds largest resource investment firms.
Heres what he told me...
Im sure Chinas buying gold. I just have no doubt that its
the most logical thing in the world that they would be buying gold. Theyre seeing their value of their Treasurys declining almost every day now with the weakness of the U.S.
dollar. They are losing a lot of money, and they see the gold
price essentially go up every day. Well, its not a dicult
decision to say, Well, we should be buying gold and getting
rid of dollars. Thats got to be the easiest call in the world.
Now... while I might not be able to technically prove that the
Chinese are buying millions of ounces of gold bars, I can prove
theyre buying plenty of gold out of the ground. The Chinese government is now in the process of secretly buying up part or all of
dozens of the best gold-mining companies around the globe.
One of the biggest recent purchases was by the government-owned Shandong Gold Group (the second-biggest producer
in China), which made an offer to purchase Jaguar Mining for
$785 million in cash thats 77% more than what Jaguar is now
worth in the markets.
Keep in mind... This is the biggest premium EVER paid for a
large gold-mining firm. Before that, state-owned Zijin Mining
Group (Chinas biggest gold producer by market value) said it
would spend as much as $1.6 billion a year on acquisitions. Last
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To control the market for gold, the Chinese must not only accumulate massive gold reserves (which its doing), it must establish the
worlds leading exchange and regulate it honestly.
And thats exactly whats happening...
For decades, Chinese citizens were barred from owning physical
gold under penalty of imprisonment. Then in September 2009,
China became the only country in the world to promote gold ownership to its citizens. The government started a major campaign to
encourage all citizens to buy gold.
Locals can buy gold bars, which come in four sizes, at ANY Chinese
bank in the country. If you dont think thats unusual, try buying
gold at ANY bank in the United States and watch the funny look
you get from the teller.
The Chinese government has also set up thousands of gold stores
around the country... which look like jewelry stores, but instead
sell bars of gold.
As Forbes recently reported at the scene of one such gold store...
The crowds surge shoulder to shoulder inside Beijings Cai Bai
store to buy five to 10 gram slivers of gold and jewelry of every
size and shape. Its one dramatic example of the gold craze
in China, which is ocially and unocially promoted by the
Communist government... And it is an integral part of the progold preference by the Chinese public and its government.
My friend Simon Black who writes about geopolitical, expatriation, and wealth issues on his Sovereign Man website also visited
one of these Chinese gold stores on a recent trip, and said...
On the inside, these gold stores look like jewelry shops
armed guards, glass viewing cases, etc. But instead of
diamond crusted earrings and white star sapphires, you see
bars. Lots of bars. The government mints bars in sizes ranging from 5 grams (which are so tiny theyre actually cute) to
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tential collapse with a handful of very simple steps... the first one
being to own plenty of gold.
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APPENDIX
RECOMMENDED READING
Hot Commodities
The master, Jim Rogers, on the basics of commodity
investing and his favorite ways to play the commodity
boom. Its an older book... but full of quality information.
Market Wizards
Jack Schwager compiles interviews with the best traders
and investors in the world. This book isnt focused on
natural resources, but it has plenty of useful information
for natural resource speculators. Make sure to read the
Paul Tudor Jones interview many times.
The Power of Gold
A great history of gold and mankinds lust for it from
author Peter Bernstein.
The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power
An incredible history of oil. Full of neat stories and facts.
Author Daniel Yergin achieved something great by writing
this book.