HR Analytics and

Innovations in
Workforce Planning

HR Analytics and
Innovations in
Workforce Planning
Dr. Tony Miller

HR Analytics and Innovations in Workforce Planning

Copyright Business Expert Press, LLC, 2017
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First published in 2017 by
Business Expert Press, LLC
222 East 46th Street, New York, NY 10017
www.businessexpertpress.com
ISBN-13: 978-1-63157-622-5 (paperback)
ISBN-13: 978-1-63157-621-8 (e-book)
Business Expert Press Human Resource Management and Organizational
Behavior Collection
Collection ISSN: 1946-5637 (print)
Collection ISSN: 1946-5645 (electronic)
Cover and interior design by S4Carlisle Publishing Services
Private Ltd., Chennai, India
First edition: 2017
10987654321
Printed in the United States of America.

Dedicated to all Human Resource professionals worldwide

who really want to make a difference.
www.tony-miller.com

Abstract
This book sets out new approaches, formulas, and software needed to enable any HR function or organization to forecast trends and to use existing retrospective data to their organizations advantage; which, in short, is
to maximize efficiency and productivity.
You will encounter the new formulas to use and new approaches that
will add value. You will find out that most of the existing 52 formulas
available dont work in todays environment. There is new software that
will enable you to do forecasts with certainty and you can use a new
mathematical model to rightsize any organization.
Are you using an outdated organizational model? Do you have processes that dont work any more? These are areas which are major inhibitors to productivity and can be significantly improved.
Most important of all is that this book will help you to create immense added value in any organization.

Keywords
Efficiency, forecasting, HR Analytics, manpower, organizational design,
productivity, profitability, rightsizing, value added, workforce planning.

Contents
Acknowledgments .................................................................................. xi
Introduction ....................................................................................... xiii
Chapter 1 Manpower Planning vs Old Workforce Planning ............. 1
Chapter 2 Strategy and New Workforce Planning Role
ontheStrategic Map ........................................................ 9
Chapter 3 Organizational Design andSupervisory Ratios ............... 29
Chapter 4 Productivity.....................................................................43
Chapter 5 Trends and Correlations ................................................. 61
Chapter 6 Use of Predictive Techniques .......................................... 71
Chapter 7 Formulas and Unit Costs ............................................... 83
Chapter 8 The New Productivity Dashboard .................................. 89
Chapter 9 Workflow Management/Business Process
Re-engineering ............................................................... 95
APPENDIX 1 ................................................................................... 109
APPENDIX 2 ................................................................................... 111
APPENDIX 3 ................................................................................... 113
How to Rightsize any Organizationthe Mathematics Involved .......... 121
Bibliography ...................................................................................... 127
Index ................................................................................................ 129

Acknowledgments
To the 1000-plus HR professionals worldwide who have shared their
frustrations with me about the inability to measure HR activities and who
unwittingly contributed to creating the need for me to write this book.
HR softwarespecific to HR Analyticsis not complicated but is
vital. Much of the effective software you need for creating value has been
developed and fully supports many of the examples used in this book.
Duncan Williamson has worked tirelessly to evolve cheap and effective
programs that all run in Excel.
To the many organizations that took part in the work done survey
so that poor performers could be categorized and their lost performance
measured and costed. This vital study is the foundation to differentiation
and is essential when rightsizing your organization.

Introduction
The purpose of this book is to aid existing personnel in the old-style manpower/planning department to transition into a position where they can
add extra value. This is a practical book, not strictly an AZ, is based on
methodologies and processes that work in todays fast-moving and demanding environment.
If youre an academic, you will be so disappointed as many of the pillars of calculus you would expect to see are not here. This is not a treatise
about mathematical reference, rather a workbook for practitioners in HR
and efficiency management. Most of the applications are focused in the
private sector where all results need to contribute to the bottom line.
However, I see little if any difference if they were applied in the Public
sector.
Reading this book will provide you with the knowledge and skills to
be able to do predictive workforce planning, supported with formulas and
some free downloadable softwareand software advice.
CEOs and CFOs would benefit from understanding what value a
modern Workforce Planning section could offer to any organization.
The results are often so significant, I truly believe any New Workforce

Master Class during World HR summit

xiv INTRODUCTION

Planning department should be a profit centerand bonuses based on

the amount of value created each year.
In 2016, two separate reports have both concluded that HR is one of
the few professions that is set to grow significantly in the next five years.
The critical area is, creating value through the human resourceNew
Workforce Planning will be in the vanguard of this trend.

CHAPTER 1

Manpower Planning vs Old

Workforce Planning
1.1 Whats the Difference Between Manpower
Planning and Old Workforce Planning?
These are exciting times for HR, but we need to understand the significant change that is taking place, as organizations need to see results.
Old Manpower planning was definitely focused on retrospective
data. It was also a tactical rather than a strategic tool of the business. Its
prime focus seems to have evolved into producing as much retrospective
management information as possible and to be able to answer all management queries relating to past manpower events. There is little evidence
to support that old Manpower planning was little more than a data producer. Almost 95% of its total activities were devoted to data farming and
providing information on a monthly and quarterly basis.
Looking at just some of the reporting areas of the old-style manpower
planning will be enough to depress anybody. Managers, believing they
were getting useful information would get vast amounts of data-ladened
reports; little if any of the information contained therein was of much
practical use, particularly when looking at or developing future strategic
plans.
Many of the formulas used by the old-style manpower planning were
based on very old formulas, and as we know now, most of those have no
practical business use. I have traced over 55 such formulas and less than
10 of them have any real business benefit in todays fast-paced organizations. We must also remember that when many of these formulas were
written, it was in a time before the computer revolution.

HR ANALYTICS AND INNOVATIONS IN WORKFORCE PLANNING

In concluding about the Old Manpower planning,

it was tactical rather than strategic
it used retrospective data and produced retrospective reports
most of the formulas used were not suited for modern
business
Little evidence that specific dedicated computer programs
were used.

1.2 Information Provided by Old-Style

ManpowerPlanning. Driven by the Volume of
Information MostlyRetrospective
Information on jobs.
Number of jobs.
Whether temporary/permanent/shift/day work/hour.
Department/section.
Occupation and level in organization.
Skills and education and knowledge required.
Information on people.
Number of employees.
Temporary/permanent/shift/day work/hour.
Skills and education level achieved.
Grade/salary.
Sex.
Age.
Date started (length of service).
Information on jobs.
Number of jobs.
Whether temporary/permanent/shift/day work/hour.
Department/section.
Occupation and level in organization.
Skills and education and knowledge required.
Information on people.
Number of employees.
Temporary/permanent/shift/day work/hour.

Manpower Planning vs Old Workforce Planning

Skills and education level achieved.

Grade/salary.
Sex.
Age.
Date started (length of service).
Number of leavers.
Temporary/permanent/shift/day work/hours.
Date of leaving and length of service at leaving.
Reason for leaving.
Age on leaving.
Grade/salary.
Sex.
Education/skills.
Overtime and contractors and agency staff.
Overtime and contractors used.
Department.
Occupation.
Reason.
Number of vacanciestemporary/permanent.
Department.
Occupation and level.
Reason for vacancy(leaver, unrequisitioned establishment, etc.).
Whether advertised or being advertised.
Whether filled by agency staff.
Length of time unfilled.
Information on recruits.
Number of recruits.
Temporary/permanent/shift/day work/hour.
Date of starting.
Age at recruitment.
Grade/salary.
Skill and education level.
Source and method of entry.
Sex.
Occupation and level in organization recruited to.
Number of promotions.

HR ANALYTICS AND INNOVATIONS IN WORKFORCE PLANNING

Temporary/permanent/shift/day work/hour.
Date of promotion.
Reason for promotion.
Grade/salary promoted from and to.
Skill/education level.
Sex.
Age.
Occupation and level in the organization promoted
from and to.
Length of service.
Number of employees absent.
Days lost.
Occupation and level in the organization.
Grade.
Age and Sex.

1.3 New Workforce Planning Now More Correctly

Referred to as HR AnalyticsDriven by Quality
InformationMainly Predictive
The future of New Workforce Planning transforms it into a specialist
function. Statisticians, HR specialists, strategists, and creative types all
have their place in this fast developing and most exciting function within
HR. Whats differenteverything!
New workforce planning uses retrospective data but presents it as predictive data always accompanied by an explanation and professional advice.
Specialist software is needed as new workforce planning requires sophisticated tools enabled to predict, cost, and show workforce requirements and
trends in the future. Whats needed for this new workforce planning?
Strategic thinkers, not tactical personnel
Greater use of creativity than ever before to provide innovative
and competitive advantage
Masters of predictive information with solutions
Masters of measurement for the five indicators on the
productivity dashboard
Ability to produce information with financial implications/benefits.

Manpower Planning vs Old Workforce Planning

Creators of measurable added value

95% of the work carried out by new workforce planning is
predictive
ability to use a range of specialist software needed in new
workforce planning
Critical information forecast:
Trends Age, Sickness, Organizational stability forecast
Predictions When to reorganize using the MILLER model, skill, and
working pattern changes
Correlations Time off/smokers, Training/productivity, etc.
Costs Cost of recruitment, training, staff turnover, lost time, and
reliability
Critical periods for Business process Re-engineering, Organizational
structure Re-modeling
Strategic PlanningFor short, medium, and long term. Developing
plans for emergency, growth, and contraction.
Focususing every opportunity to maximize the Human capital
New Workforce Planning requires new and innovative software, new
models, and above all software that provides predictive information. It is
no longer acceptable for Workforce Planners to do crude estimates or to
just provide part of the solution. Organizations are demanding turnkey
solutions, and we as workforce planners are in the perfect position to
provide that solution.

1.4 HR Analytics/workforce
planningWhere Does It Fit in HR?
Workforce Planning is not just a new term for Manpower Planning. It is
a completely different way of getting the best from the human resource.
It works at a strategic level, whereas old Manpower planning functioned
mainly at a tactical level.
Workforce management is also referred to as human resource planning, just to complicate things. In the diagram, you will see where work
(HRP) fits into the overall work of a new HR function. The activities

HR ANALYTICS AND INNOVATIONS IN WORKFORCE PLANNING

that are carried out by workforce management are significantly different.

Included in the new spectrum of responsibilities, which may come as a
surprise, is business process re-engineering. It is not possible to get the
best out of our human resource without having processes that are capable
of being excellent in themselves. Business process re-engineering has always been like an orphan in an organization with nobody taking care
of it; and when things need to change, the outcry is normally we need
consultants. By then, of course, it is normally too late and very costly.
HR Business Partner 2016 and Beyond Dr Tony Miller
Recruitment /
Selection
The Gateway
HRM

Performance
Appraisal
HRM

Business
Process
Re-Engineering
HRP
Strategic Planning
& Execution
Using the Tony Miller
10 Input Model
HRM

Training and
Development
HRD

Human Capital
Management
HRP
Grievance /
Disciplinary /
Procedures /
Legal
HRM

Pay, Bonus,
Rewards
HRM

Manpower
Planning &
Forecasting
HRP

Succession /
Emergency /
Leadership
Planning
HRD HRP

2016/17 Tony Miller

Workforce planning works best at a strategic level. When you see the
full range of functions in new workforce management, it is clear that its
new focus is very much strategic and its prime customers are the chief
executive and the main board.
1.4.1 The Three Critical Levels

Vision
Mission

Strategy
Business plan

3
4

Department
5

Team
6

Strategic
HR
P

Tactical
Operational

Individual

Manpower Planning vs Old Workforce Planning

The next level is that of tactical, involving the necessary actions to execute
the 1- to 3-year business plan. Workforce management can do a good job
here although it is at the strategic level where it will excel.
The final level is really day-to-day management of people. Workforce
management is very weak in this area as this really isnt anything to do with
planning, rather correcting other peoples mistakes or compensating for
their bad planning. Line managers are notorious for causing havoc in this
area, normally with trying to cover up their inability to make longer-term
plans. Examples of this are normally recruitment issues where increased
workloads or expanding business plans require extra personnel. Normally
left too late, it then becomes an urgent issue to resolvecausing panic,
and often very unsatisfactory implementation.
The role of workforce management is therefore best executed at the
strategic level, contributing significantly to the building of the strategic
plan and providing management at the most senior level with predictive
information (covered later).

Best results come from working with predictive data

Index
A

absenteeism, 54, 56
actions, framework organizational, 17
age, 24, 5, 61, 66, 74, 101
ageing workforce BMW, 74
allowances, 1314, 55, 84
analysis, cohort, 645
apple, 334, 84
appraisal, 28, 43, 47, 49, 51, 60, 66,
71, 73, 78, 856
appraisal cost, 856
assessment center, 7980
assessment center process,
7980
Asymmetrical Organizations,
302,33, 40
average employees, 62, 85
average performers, 38, 767, 87
average worker, 52

benefits, 1, 4, 13, 31, 40, 44, 479,

74, 75, 867, 89, 117
BMW, 745, 867
bonus, 13, 3940, 513, 55, 57, 89,
934, 97, 117
bonus scheme, 13, 3940, 523,
57,934
BPR, 1012, 105
BPS process, 1026
budgets, 14, 18, 21, 42, 51, 60, 78,
86, 90, 98
business cost factor, major, 54
business performance, 14, 86, 90
business performance trends, 14
Business Plans, 67, 11
comprehensive HR, 16
business process re-engineering, 56,
40, 95, 1012
business value, 86, 92, 101

change costs, 106, 111

chart
organizational, 97
swim lane, 102
coefficient of determination, 68
company average competency, 73, 88
Company Strategy, 18
competence, 13, 43, 4450, 52, 55,
57, 61, 63, 66, 88, 92, 117
Competence Performance, 14
competencies, 14, 4450, 89
competency frameworks, 446
competency levels, 467, 50, 72,
878
company average, 73
correlation accounts, 69
correlations, 5, 36, 56, 61, 659, 71,
92, 110
cost changes, low, 95
creative strategic processes, 17
creativity, 4, 1617, 1045
Critical periods for Business process
Re-engineering, 5

dashboard, 4, 14, 56, 8994

days Formula, 83
day work, 24
defined goals, team delivery of, 47
delayering, 40
Delivering results and Quality, 46, 47
Dependencies, 21, 23, 278
Designing strategies, 18
downsizing, 402

Efficiency Dashboard, 61
efficient organizations, running, 32
elapsed time, 1024, 106

130 INDEX

elapsed time value, 111

emergency, organizational, 13
emergency planning, 812
employees, conscientious, 101
ESUC, 58, 59, 83, 845
standard unit cost, 84
European manufacturing company,
large, 96
Example BMW, 745
Example Sysco, 734

factory work, 35
Financial services company, 89
FORCES & MILLER organizational
maturity model, 12
forecasting, predictive, 61, 71, 758
forecasts, organizational stability, 5
formulas, 1, 2, 42, 546, 61, 636,
75, 77, 838, 92, 101,
105,111
cohort analysis, 64
correlation, 61, 66
training ROI, 867, 92
using, 42, 56, 64, 75
functions, training development, 78

Google, 33, 53, 84

Google organization, new, 34

Hammer, Michael, 16, 88,

101, 105
hour rate, 85, 100
HR functions workforce
planning, 93
HR processes, 12
HR strategy, 911
HRM, 80, 81
human capital time, 17

improvement, projected
productivity, 13
index, labor turnover, 623
indicators, key performance, 89

innovations, organizational, 34
interpersonal skills, 78, 80

job retention, 14

Ken Carring, 74
key competencies, 44, 45, 50
key indicators, 55, 75
key positions, 79, 80, 81
KPIs, 8990
Kressinger, Ray, 37

Labor Stability Index (LSI), 634

labor turnover index see LTI
Land Rover, 38
Less management, 31, 40, 92
long term sickness leavers, 64
LSI (Labor Stability Index), 634
LTI (labor turnover index), 623

management, workflow, 95101

management information
critical, 62
retrospective, 1
management ratios, 3440
manpower, 1314, 20, 63, 71,
77, 81
manpower planning, 17, 63, 71, 77
old-style, 1, 24
masterclass workshops, 107
measurement, task of, 44
Miller, Tony, 6, 18, 27, 37, 83,
113,120
MILLER model, 5, 10, 1213, 60
MILLER organizational change
model, 12
MILLER organizational maturity
chart, 40

New Business process, 95, 1012

New HR, 5, 39, 43, 79, 92
New Productivity, 8994

 INDEX
131

objective setting, 18, 28

organization, 16, 1014, 17, 18,
21, 23, 28, 2946, 51, 535,
623, 65, 68, 72, 7581, 83,
85, 87, 8992, 96, 98, 101,
107, 11320
flat, 30, 33
overstaffed, 53
symmetrical, 2930, 33, 34
organizational design, 30, 33, 34, 39
organizational efficiency, improving,
36, 38. 55, 71, 88
organizational structure, first
modern,29
Organizational Structure Remodelling Strategic
Planning,5
organizational structures, flat, 30

Peoplecentric Organizations, 324

term, 32
performance, high, 39, 58
performance appraisal, 28, 43, 47, 51,
60, 66, 71, 73, 78, 85, 118
performance appraisal process, 43
performance improvement, 21, 578
performance scores, 85, 94
performers, high, 767
PEST, 1012
planning, 17, 911, 1316, 18, 36,
40, 44, 59, 601, 63, 66, 71,
75, 77, 7881, 83, 86, 88,
923, 96, 102, 107
predictive workforce, 60
real value New Workforce, 107
strategic, 1, 5, 7, 1012, 1516,
18, 28
plans, expanding business, 7
poor performers, 37, 52, 76
Poor processes waste time, 101
Postal delivery process, 106
Predictable turnover, 61, 62, 65, 78
predictions, 5, 634, 69, 723, 79,
84, 107
predictive information, 45, 7
problem solving, 468

process, mathematical, 878

process map, 104, 106
processing cost, low, 91
productivity, organizational, 12
productivity dashboard, 4, 14,
8994
productivity indicators, 56, 88,
901,93
productivity information, 71
profit center, 60, 86, 92, 107
projections, 567, 74, 107
PT&C time, 53
PWD, 58, 59, 83, 85, 87

ratios, supervisory, 346

reliability, 14, 43, 48, 52, 537, 61,
63, 66, 71, 878, 904
requirements
organizational, 21, 45
workflow, 99
retrospective data, 1, 2, 4, 71
rightsizing, 42, 60
ROI, 1315, 867, 92, 1056
ROI calculation Formula, 101

salary costs, total, 84

Shockley, 323
sickness, 5, 13, 54, 612, 646, 75,
78, 86, 97
Silicon Valley, 32
Simpson, John, 367
Skills Style Staff Structure Systems,
1718
software, 45, 236, 5561, 66, 71,
725, 81, 88, 107
software costs, 589
specialist software, 451
Sporlein model, 17
Staff satisfaction, 56, 61, 912
staff turnover, 5, 14, 37
Strategic action Plan, 16, 1728
strategic information, high-level, 9
strategic mapping process, 18
strategic models, 910, 12
strategic plans, 1, 5, 7, 1012,
1516,18, 28

132 INDEX

Strategy and New Workforce Planning

role, 928
succession planning, 14, 789
Sysco, 734, 90

Talented workers, 52
TE, processing time, 85, 86
team, empowered, 39
team leaders, 23, 257, 31, 457
Team Productivity Model, 3940
techniques, predictive, 62, 7182
Timekeeping, 35
timekeeping, strict, 35
timelines, strategic, 9
training budget, 14, 86
Training costs, 58
total, 59
training day cost, 100
training in-house, 60
training ROI, 867, 92
Trainings TASK, 589
turnover, 5, 13, 14, 37, 613, 65,
734, 78, 91, 97
turnover trends, 62

unit costs, 51, 838

average employee, 85

vision, 23, 26, 27

Workflow management, 95101

workforce
ageing, 74
well-educated international, 36
workforce forecasting, 76
workforce planners, 5, 61, 71, 75,
77,856
workforce planning, 17, 1011, 15,
36, 40, 44, 5961, 63, 66,
75, 79, 81, 83, 86, 88, 923,
96, 102, 107
Workforce Planning Master
Classes,96
workloads, increased, 7

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