DEMOGRAPHY

DEFINITIONS:

• It is the scientific study of human population which includes the study

of changes in human population, size, it’s composition and distribution.
• The study of the size, territorial distribution, and components of
population, changes therein, and components of such changes (Hauser
& Duncan, 1959).
• Demography is the science of populations.

Demographic indicators have been divided in to two parts:

1. Population statistics - Population statistics include indicators that
measure the population, size, sex ratio, density& dependency ratio.
2. Vital statistics - Vital statistics include indicators such as birth rate death
rate natural growth rate, life expectancy at birth, mortality and fertility rates.

These indicators help in identifying areas that need policy and programmed
interventions, setting near and far –term goals and deciding priorities besides
understanding them in an integrated structure.India;s population has been
steadily increasing since 1921. The year 1921 called the “big divide” because
the actual number of people added during each decade has been on the
increase since 1921. India’s population is increasing at the rate of 16 million
each year.

DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES
Demography variables include personal statistics that include such
information as income level, gender, educational level, location, ethnicity,
race, and family size. Several demographic variables play central roles in the
study of human populations, especially fertility and fecundity,
mortality and life expectancy, and migration.
• Fertility, which refers to the number of children that an average
woman bears during her reproductive years—from puberty to
menopause
• Fecundity, which refers to the number of children an average woman,
is capable of bearing. Factors such as health finances and personal
decision sharply affect fecundity. The worlds average fertility rate is
about 3 children per women; its fecundity rate is about 20per woman.
• Crude birth rate: The number of live births for every thousand people
in a given population
 • Mortality and expectancy: Mortality is the number of deaths in a
society's population, also influences population size
• Infant mortality rate, which is the number of deaths among infants
under age one for each 1,000 live births in a year,
• Life expectancy, which is the average lifespan of a society's population
• Migration: Movement of people from one place to another also affects
population size
• Immigration: Migration into an area is called migration
• Emigration: migration out from an area is called emigration

DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES
Demography is the science of populations. Demographers seek to understand
population dynamics by investigating fiver main demographic processes:
• Fertility
• Mortality,
• Marriage,
• Migration
• Social mobility
DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE
The history of world population since 1650 suggests that there is a
demographic cycle of 5 stages through which a nation passes.
 First stage (High stationary)
This stage is characterized by High birth rate and High death rate which
cancel each other and the population remains stationary. India was in
this phase till 1920.
 Second stage (Early expanding)
Death rate declines, while the birth rate remains unchanged.
Birth rate has increased in some of the countries like South Asia and
Africa possibly as a result of improved health conditions, and
shortening period of breast feedings.
 Third stage (Late expanding)
Birth rate begins to decline, and death rate continue to decline at the
same rate/faster rate. India is in this phase now. Population continues
to grow as birth rate exceeds the death rate.
 Fourth stage (Low stationary):
At this stage birth rate as well as death rate is low and the population
become stationary most industrialized countries are in this stage .
Zero population growth has already been recorded in Austria during
1980-85.
Most industrialised countries have undergone a demographic transition
shifting from a high birth and high death rates to low birth rates and
low death rates.
 Fifth stage (Declining) :
 Birth rate is lower than death rate Population begins to decline in this
phase.
Some East European countries notably Germany and Hungary are
experiencing this stage.

DEMOGRAPHIC WINDOW
It is defined as that period of time in a nation's demographic evolution when
the proportion of population of working age group is particularly prominent.
Typically, the demographic window of opportunity lasts for 30–40 years.
Because of the mechanical link between fertility levels and age structures, the
timing and duration of this period is closely associated to those of fertility
decline:
• When birth rates fall- proportion of young population (under 15s) falls,
and the dependency ratio decreases e.g. various parts of East Asia over
several decades.
• After a few decades, the population gets older and the dependency ratio
increases
• India (<15 yrs = 29.5% and ≥60 yrs = 8%) according to Census 2011

DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND
A rise in the rate of economic growth due to a increased share of working age
people in a population. This usually occurs late in the demographic transition
• When the fertility rate falls and the youth dependency rate declines.
• During this demographic window of opportunity, output per capita
rises.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRAP
The term demographic trap applies to a country whose population is growing
rapidly due to a high birth rate and low death rate.
During the 3rd stage of demographic transition-
• Improvement in quality of health care causes death rates to fall
within "accepted" range.
• However, birth rates remain high, and the country becomes
"trapped" in a self-perpetuating cycle.
The country's economic growth ends up being used to support the needs of
the exploding population.

World population trends

The term "World Population" refers to the human population (the total number
of humans currently living) of the world.
The current world population is 7.6 billion as of October 2017 according to
the most recent United Nations estimates elaborated by World meters.
POPULATION GROWTH
It is the increase in number of individuals in a population. About three fourth
of world’s population lives in developing countries. Global human population
growth amount to about 75 million annually or 1.1% year. The global
population have grown from one billion in 1800 to 7 billion in 2012.It is
expected to keep growing and estimates have put the population at 8.4 billion
by mid-2030 &9.6 billion by 2050.
Birth rate and death rates
The world’s birth rate fell below 30 for the first time around 1975 and had
declined to about 20 during 2008 in most of the world the decline reflected
falling birth rates and a global trend towards smaller families. The key factors
in fertility decline included changes in government attitude towards growth
spread of education increased availability of contraception and extension of
services offered through family planning programmes as well as marked
change in marriage patterns.
The average global birth rate is 18.5 births per 1,000 total populations in 2016. The
death rate is 7.8 per 1,000 per year.
Death rate have also declined world-wide during last decades .The global
death rate declined from11.0(1975-1980) to 8 per thousand population during
200, reduction of 18% .In countries with a relative young population crude
death rates are mainly affected by infant and child mortality. With
improvement in child health services. Successful implementation of expanded
programme on immunization diarrhoeal diseases and acute respiratory
infection control programmes as well as with control of other infectious
diseases, there has been marked reduction in infant and child mortality rates
which are reflected in the declining crude death rates.
Growth rates
The "population growth rate" is the rate at which the number of
individuals in a population increases in a given time period, expressed as a
fraction of the initial population. The crude death rate is subtracted from the
crude birth rate is the annual growth rate.
The growth rate is not uniform in the world. The differences in growth rates
are largely the result of fertility and mortality patterns. The salient features of
population growth at a glance are as follows
 Approximately 95% of growth is occurring in the developing countries
 Currently one third of the world’s population is under the age of fifteen

and will soon enter the reproductive bracket giving more potential
for population growth
 The UNPFA estimates that the world population is most likely to reach
ten billion people by 2050 and 20.7 billion a century later
 The rampant population growth has been viewed as the greatest
obstacle to economic and social advancements of the majority of people
in the underdeveloped world
 Global growth for 2016 is now estimated at 3.1 percentage, in line with
the October 2016 forecast.

POPULATION GROWTH
It is the increase in number of individuals in a population. Global population
growth accounts to around 75 million annually or 1.1% per year. It is expected
to become the first particular entry in history to be home to more than 1.5
billion people by 2030,and its population is set to reach 1.7billion by 2050.

MORTALITY INDICATORS
Crude death rate: No. of deaths per 1,000 people per year.
The total number of deaths in a year & locality
CDR = X 1000
Estimated population in the same year & locality
Deaths
=
1000 individuals in the specified year and locality

The difference in CDR between countries may be due to difference in the

population composition between these countries
Age specific death rate:
Age specific
death rate in No. of deaths of persons aged 15 to 20 yrs during a calendar year
age group 15-
=
Mid - year population of persons aged 15 to 20 yrs
20 years X 1000
Infant Mortality rate:

Infant Mortality Rate =

No. of deaths of children less than one year of age in a given year
X 1000
Total live births in the same year

Under 5 Mortality rate:

Under 5 Mortality Rate =

No. of deaths of children less than 5 years of age in a given year
X 1000
Total live births in the same year

Neonatal Mortality Rate:

Neonatal Mortality Rate =

No. of deaths of children under 28 days of age in a given year
X 1000
Total live births in the same year

Perinatal Mortality Rate:

Perinatal Mortality Rate = Late foetal deaths(28 weeks of gestation and more)

+
Early Neonatal death (first week) in one year
Total live births in the same year
X 1000

Maternal Mortality Rate/Ratio:

Maternal Mortality Rate =

Total no. of female deaths due to complications of pregnancy,
child birth or within 42 days of delivery from puerperal
causes in an arein a given year
X 1000
Total live births in the same area and same year

FERTILITY INDICATORS
Crude birth rate: childbirths per 1,000 people per year.
No. of live births which occurred in a year in a specific area
CBR = X
Estimated mid-year population of the same area in the same year
1000
CBR is a crude index of fertility as it relates births to total population.
However, it is useful in:-
1. making annual comparisons
2. to detect trends in fertility in a given country, and
 3. in comparing different populations.
General fertility rate: Total no. of live birth per thousand women in a
reproductive age group (15-49 yrs).
Total live births in a year
GFR = X 1000
Women in reproductive age group (15 - 49 yrs)

It is a refinement of the CBR. It relates births to women in the child bearing

period (15-49 years). Disadvantages:
1. it does not take into account:
2. the marital status of women, and
3. the differences in fertility levels in various age groups of reproductive
period.
Relationship with CBR: GFR= Birth Rate X 5
Age specific fertility rate: It is obtained by dividing the no. of live births by
the 1000 women of particular age group.
The whole reproductive life of females (15-49 years) is divided into 7 age
groups, each of 5 years duration (namely 15-19, 20-24 years, … etc).
Total no. of live birthsfrom women in the specific age group in a year
ASFR = The no. of women in the same age group from the same area X
in the same year
1000
Live births which occurred in a year in a specific area
= 1000 female population in specified age group

Disadvantage: It includes some unmarried females.

General Marital Fertility Rate: It is obtained by dividing the no. of births to
1000 married women in a specific year by the no. of married women in the
reproductive age group (15-49 yrs).
Total no. of live births to married women in a specific area in a year
GMFR = The no. of married women from the same area X
in the same year
1000

Live births which occurred in a year in a specific area

= 1000 married female population

Disadvantage: It includes infertile married women & Married women with

infertile husband.
Total Fertility Rate: the average number of children that would be born to
woman during her reproductive life if -
 1. She were to experience the exact current ASFRs’ through her lifetime,
and
2. She was to survive from birth through her reproductive life.

SEX RATIO
Sex ratio is defined as the number of females per 1000 males. One of the basic
demographic characteristics of the population is the sex ratio. This is also an
index of fertility. It is calculated by
Number of females
Sex Ratio = Number of males
X 1000

But, sex ratio at birth is a better indicator of fertility than the overall sex ratio.
It is defined as:
Number of females live births
Sex Ratio at birth = Number of males live births
X 1000
OTHERS
Abortion rate:
Total no. of all types of abortions in a specific year
AR = Total no. of women aged 15-49 yrs
X 1000

Abortion ratio:
Total no. of abortions performed in a specific year
Abortion Ratio = Total no. of live births in the same period
X 100
Crude marriage rate:
Total no. of marriages in a specific year
CMR = Mid -year Population
X 100

Dependency Ratio: The ratio of combined age groups 0-14 years plus 65
years above to the 15-65years age group is referred to as the total dependency
ratio.
Young Dependency Ratio:
Population aged 0 - 15 years in a specific locality & year
YDR = Population aged 15-64 years in the same locality & year
X 100

Old Dependency Ratio:

Population aged > 65 in a specific locality & year
ODR = Population aged 15 - 64 years in the same locality & year
X 100
Total Dependency Ratio:
Population aged < 15 + > 64 years in a specific locality & year
TDR = Population aged 15-64 years in the same locality & year
X 100
Couple protection rate:
Total no. of eligible couples protected by any of the approved methods
CPR = Total no. of eligible couples in the community
X
60
100 = X 100 = 33.33%
180
Effective couple protection rate:
Total no. of eligible couples effectively protected by any
of the approved methods
ECPR = Total no. of eligible couples in the community
X 100

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN INDIA

Demographic characteristics provide an over view of its population size,

composition, territorial distribution and components of changes such as
nativity mortality and social mobility.
Demographic indicators have been divided in to two parts:
1. Population statistics - Population statistics include indicators that
measure the population, size, sex ratio, density& dependency ratio.
2. Vital statistics - Vital statistics include indicators such as birth rate
death rate natural growth rate, life expectancy at birth, mortality and
fertility rates.
These indicators help in identifying areas that need policy and programmed
interventions, setting near and far –term goals and deciding priorities besides
understanding them in an integrated structure. India’s population has been
steadily increasing since 1921. The year 1921 called the “big divide” because
the actual number of people added during each decade has been on the
increase since 1921. India’s population is increasing at the rate of 16 million
each year.

POPULATION IN INDIA 1901-2011

AGE AND SEX COMPOSITION
The proportion of population below 14 years of age is showing decline
whereas the proportion of elderly in the country is increasing. The trend
 is to continue in the coming time. The increase in elderly population is
a burden on the already stretched out health services in the community
AGE PYRAMIDS

It is the representation of age structure of a population. A vivid contrast may

be seen in in the age distribution of men and women in India. The age pyramid
of India is a typical of developing countries, with a broad base and a tapering
top.

SEX RATIO

Sex ratio is the number of females per 1000 males. One of the basic
demographic characteristics of the population is the sex composition. It is
affected by the differentials in mortality conditions of males and female, sex
selective migration, and sex ratio at birth. “Female deficit syndrome” is
considered adverse because of social implications.

According to Census of India 2011, Indian sex ratio has shown major signs
of improvement in the last 10 years. From a small number of 933 in 2001, the
bar has been raised to 940 in the 2011 Census of India. Improvement of Sex
ratio indicates a healthy growth rate among female to male population in
India. The state of Kerala and union territory of Puducherry are only two
places in India where sex ratio is above 1000 or exceeds female to male
ratio. According to Census of India, the child sex ratio (0-6 years) in India is
one of the poorest, last recorded at 918 girls for every 1000 boys in 2011.

Current Sex Ratio in 945 females for every 1,000 males

India 2017
Sex Ratio in India 944 (2016), 943 (2015), 942 (2014), 941
(Yearly) (2013), 940 (2012)
Total No. of Males in 696,865,635 (696 million - Jan, 2017)
India
Total No. of Females in 652,603,061 (652 million - Jan, 2017)
India

DEPENDENCY AGE AND SEX COMPOSITION

The proportion of population below 14 years of age is showing decline

whereas the proportion of elderly in the country is increasing. The trend
is to continue in the coming time. The increase in elderly population is
a burden on the already stretched out health services in the community
AGE PYRAMIDS

It is the representation of age structure of a population. A vivid contrast may

be seen in in the age distribution of men and women in India. The age pyramid
of India is a typical of developing countries, with a broad base and a tapering
top.
SEX RATIO

Sex ratio is the number of females per 1000 males. One of the basic
demographic characteristics of the population is the sex composition. It is
affected by the differentials in mortality conditions of males and female, sex
selective migration, and sex ratio at birth. “Female deficit syndrome” is
considered adverse because of social implications.

According to Census of India 2011, Indian sex ratio has shown major signs
of improvement in the last 10 years. From a small number of 933 in 2001, the
bar has been raised to 940 in the 2011 Census of India. Improvement of Sex
ratio indicates a healthy growth rate among female to male population in
India. The state of Kerala and union territory of Puducherry are only two
places in India where sex ratio is above 1000 or exceeds female to male
ratio. According to Census of India, the child sex ratio (0-6 years) in India is
one of the poorest, last recorded at 918 girls for every 1000 boys in 2011.

Current Sex Ratio in 945 females for every 1,000 males

India 2017
 Sex Ratio in India 944 (2016), 943 (2015), 942 (2014), 941
(Yearly) (2013), 940 (2012)
Total No. of Males in 696,865,635 (696 million - Jan, 2017)
India
Total No. of Females in 652,603,061 (652 million - Jan, 2017)
India

India Demographics Profile 2017

Population 1,266,883,598 (July 2016 est.)

Age structure 0-14 years: 27.71% (male 186,420,229/female

164,611,755)
15-24 years: 17.99% (male 121,009,850/female
106,916,692)
25-54 years: 40.91% (male 267,203,029/female
251,070,105)
55-64 years: 7.3% (male 46,398,574/female
46,105,489)
65 years and over: 6.09% (male 36,549,003/female
40,598,872) (2016 est.)

Dependency ratios total dependency ratio: 52.4

youth dependency ratio: 43.9
elderly dependency ratio: 8.6
potential support ratio: 11.7 (2015 est.)

Median age total: 27.6 years

male: 26.9 years
female: 28.3 years (2016 est.)

Population growth 1.19% (2016 est.)

rate

Birth rate 19.3 births/1,000 population (2016 est.)

Death rate 7.3 deaths/1,000 population (2016 est.)

Net migration rate 0 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2016 est.)

Urbanization urban population: 32.7% of total population (2015)

rate of urbanization: 2.38% annual rate of change
(2010-15 est.)

Major cities - NEW DELHI (capital) 25.703 million; Mumbai 21.043

population million; Kolkata 11.766 million; Bangalore 10.087
million; Chennai 9.62 million; Hyderabad 8.944
million (2015)

Sex ratio at birth: 1.12 male(s)/female

0-14 years: 1.13 male(s)/female
15-24 years: 1.13 male(s)/female
25-54 years: 1.06 male(s)/female
55-64 years: 1.01 male(s)/female
65 years and over: 0.9 male(s)/female
total population: 1.08 male(s)/female (2016 est.)

Infant mortality total: 40.5 deaths/1,000 live births

rate male: 39.2 deaths/1,000 live births
female: 41.8 deaths/1,000 live births (2016 est.)

Life expectancy at total population: 68.5 years

birth male: 67.3 years
female: 69.8 years (2016 est.)

Total fertility rate 2.45 children born/woman (2016 est.)

Contraceptive 54.8% (2007/08)

prevalence rate

HIV/AIDS - adult 0.26% (2013 est.)

prevalence rate
HIV/AIDS - people 2,118,100 (2015 est.)
living with
HIV/AIDS

HIV/AIDS - deaths 67,600 (2015 est.)

Drinking water Improved:

source urban: 97.1% of population
rural: 92.6% of population
total: 94.1% of population
unimproved:
urban: 2.9% of population
rural: 7.4% of population
total: 5.9% of population (2015 est.)

Sanitation facility Improved:

access urban: 62.6% of population
rural: 28.5% of population
total: 39.6% of population
unimproved:
urban: 37.4% of population
rural: 71.5% of population
total: 60.4% of population (2015 est.)

Major infectious degree of risk: very high

diseases food or waterborne diseases: bacterial diarrhea,
hepatitis A and E, and typhoid fever
vectorborne diseases: dengue fever, Japanese
encephalitis, and malaria
water contact disease: leptospirosis
animal contact disease: rabies (2016)

Nationality noun: Indian(s)

adjective: Indian

Ethnic groups Indo-Aryan 72%, Dravidian 25%, Mongoloid and

other 3% (2000)
Religions Hindu 79.8%, Muslim 14.2%, Christian 2.3%, Sikh
1.7%, other and unspecified 2% (2011 est.)

Languages Hindi 41%, Bengali 8.1%, Telugu 7.2%, Marathi 7%,

Tamil 5.9%, Urdu 5%, Gujarati 4.5%, Kannada 3.7%,
Malayalam 3.2%, Oriya 3.2%, Punjabi 2.8%,
Assamese 1.3%, Maithili 1.2%, other 5.9%
note: English enjoys the status of subsidiary official
language but is the most important language for
national, political, and commercial communication;
Hindi is the most widely spoken language and
primary tongue of 41% of the people; there are 14
other official languages: Bengali, Telugu, Marathi,
Tamil, Urdu, Gujarati, Malayalam, Kannada, Oriya,
Punjabi, Assamese, Kashmiri, Sindhi, and Sanskrit;
Hindustani is a popular variant of Hindi/Urdu
spoken widely throughout northern India but is not
an official language (2001 census)

Literacy Definition: age 15 and over can read and write

total population: 71.2%
male: 81.3%
female: 60.6% (2015 est.)

School life total: 12 years

expectancy male: 12 years
(primary to tertiary female: 12 years (2014)
education)

Education 3.8% of GDP (2013)

expenditures

Maternal mortality 174 deaths/100,000 live births (2015 est.)

rate

Health 4.7% of GDP (2014)

expenditures
 Physicians density 0.73 physicians/1,000 population (2014)

Hospital bed 0.7 beds/1,000 population (2011)

density

Obesity - adult 4.7% (2014)

prevalence rate

Five Surprising Trends In India's Population Growth In the

Coming Decades
The United Nations released the 2017 Revision to its World Population
Prospects this week, and the data has some surprising insights about the way
India's population is set to grow in the next few decades.

1. India will be number one in seven years

Within the next seven years, India will overtake China to become the world's
most populous country. In just a year or two after that, once China's
population has hit around 1441.5 million people, its population will start to
decline for the first time ever.
India, meanwhile, will continue to grow until 2061 or so and only start to
decline when its population has gone well past 1678.7 million people, when it
will be the most populous country the world has ever seen

2. Young, but not for long

By that point, we will be a significantly greyer country; India's median age will
have crossed 40 by the time its population finally starts declining. The median
age today is under 27 years.

3. The beginning of the end of the demographic dividend

By 2040 or so, India's demographic dividend will be conclusively over. Being
a relatively young country, India has a low dependency ratio -- the ratio of
children and the elderly to the working age population. Once fertility began to
slow down, the dependency ratio began to fall from the 1970s and the share
of the working population in the total population grew, becoming a huge
potential strength for India. But as the population greys, India's dependency
ratio will rise again, and that change becomes evident by 2040 or so. So if
India wants to use its global competitive advantage in having a large working
age population, it has around 20 years to do this.

4. Moms are younger, not older

Perhaps the most significant demographic change is the falling number of
children every family in India is having -- the total fertility rate is already down
to 2.3 children for every woman, and is expected to reach the replacement
fertility rate (the number of children required to simply replace the existing
population without it growing) of 2.1 by 2025.
Most people commonly believe that having fewer children and being better
educated means that women are having their children later than ever, and
hence the mean age at child-bearing should be falling in India. However
what's actually happening is the opposite. The age at which a woman has her
first child is indeed going up. But women are having fewer children not so
much by having them later, but by still having them relatively early, and then
stopping having them -- no more having your fifth and sixth child well into
your 40s for Indian women. So, counter-intuitively, the mean age at childbirth
-- the average age at which a woman has all of her children -- is actually falling
in India.
That finally changes around 2025, when women start to have children later,
and the mean age at childbirth starts to rise.

5. The sex ratio will finally improve

Sometime around now, India's sex ratio is projected to finally start improving.
After 2020, India's sex ratio at birth -- the number of male births for every
female birth -- is projected to finally start declining. Just a handful of
countries have a worse sex ratio at birth as of 2015-2020, such as China,
Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Another important change that is taking place right now -- the inexplicably
high number of baby girls dying before they reach the age of five is slowing
down, and male and female child mortality is falling and is at similar rates
now.

Summary
 India’s population is currently increasing at a rate of 16 million each
year.
  India’s population crossed 1 billion marks on 11 May 2000,

 and is projected to reach 1.53 billion by the year 2050.

 This will then make India the most populous country in the world,
surpassing China.

 The importance of demography lies in its contribution to helping

government and society better prepare to deal for the issues and demands of
population growth, aging and migration. ... A wide variety of social outcomes
are impacted by demographic processes and distributions.

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