Monthly Sales: Tractors Industry and MMFD

months Industry MMFD months Industry MMFD months Industry

Apr-03 10,281 4,698 Apr-06 24,416 10,905 Apr-09 27,039
May-03 11,683 4,605 May-06 24,262 9,842 May-09 31,113
Jun-03 14,042 4,859 Jun-06 29,924 12,259 Jun-09 39,396
Jul-03 10,283 4,136 Jul-06 21,738 9,285 Jul-09 27,219
Aug-03 9,522 3,872 Aug-06 20,417 7,950 Aug-09 24,434
Sep-03 14,263 5,938 Sep-06 33,280 11,482 Sep-09 41,338
Oct-03 20,264 8,790 Oct-06 35,817 15,817 Oct-09 43,171
Nov-03 15,778 6,825 Nov-06 26,057 10,288 Nov-09 27,743
Dec-03 12,758 4,858 Dec-06 23,742 8,743 Dec-09 27,424
Jan-04 14,297 5,907 Jan-07 26,259 10,419 Jan-10 35,941
Feb-04 17,521 6,386 Feb-07 23,995 8,801 Feb-10 32,140
Mar-04 24,773 9,085 Mar-07 28,421 8,631 Mar-10 43,245
Apr-04 15,714 6,492 Apr-07 22,357 9,682 Apr-10 38,301
May-04 17,352 6,832 May-07 23,488 9,052 May-10 40,442
Jun-04 20,901 8,867 Jun-07 29,631 11,477 Jun-10 38,356
Jul-04 12,065 4,998 Jul-07 20,594 8,242 Jul-10 31,198
Aug-04 13,452 5,305 Aug-07 20,051 7,674 Aug-10 29,763
Sep-04 22,018 7,618 Sep-07 27,466 10,339 Sep-10 42,042
Oct-04 27,631 11,443 Oct-07 34,778 13,919 Oct-10 55,946
Nov-04 21,799 8,716 Nov-07 25,839 10,531 Nov-10 37,044
Dec-04 16,209 6,119 Dec-07 23,053 8,435 Dec-10 35,298
Jan-05 16,249 7,408 Jan-08 23,548 9,750 Jan-11 42,838
Feb-05 18,867 7,493 Feb-08 22,619 8,477 Feb-11 41,784
Mar-05 23,857 8,541 Mar-08 28,817 9,814 Mar-11 45,500
Apr-05 16,828 8,029 Apr-08 24,644 10,684 Apr-11 42,513
May-05 19,062 8,650 May-08 27,949 11,693 May-11 41,874
Jun-05 22,724 9,960 Jun-08 32,737 14,439 Jun-11 48,716
Jul-05 15,320 7,152 Jul-08 21,654 9,081 Jul-11 38,577
Aug-05 16,936 7,322 Aug-08 22,718 9,781 Aug-11 36,407
Sep-05 21,986 9,239 Sep-08 28,855 10,307 Sep-11 56,864
Oct-05 30,998 14,123 Oct-08 33,205 14,800 Oct-11 67,886
Nov-05 22,359 9,566 Nov-08 20,983 7,960 Nov-11 39,735
Dec-05 20,860 7,341 Dec-08 17,751 6,858 Dec-11 36,604
Jan-06 24,057 9,404 Jan-09 22,114 9,438 Jan-12 42,277
Feb-06 23,506 8,613 Feb-09 20,025 8,487 Feb-12 36,701
Mar-06 27,985 9,425 Mar-09 31,286 10,609 Mar-12 43,541
MMFD
11,282
12,870
17,811
12,128
10,161
16,359
17,796
11,604
11,517
15,925
13,532
14,648
15,697
16,653
15,411
13,534
12,454
16,300
23,378
16,975
15,135
19,430
17,534
17,822
17,740
17,952
21,552
15,699
15,059
23,508
30,519
16,175
15,315
17,950
13,534
15,054
 year 1 2 3 4
1 2008 12.6 8.6 6.3 17.5 45
2 2009 14.1 10.3 7.5 18.2 50.1
3 2010 15.3 10.6 8.1 19.6 53.6
42 29.5 21.9 55.3 148.7
Seasonalit 0.282448 0.198386 0.1472763954 0.37189
3-Moving 49.56667
2011 14 9.833333 7.3 18.43333

Second Method Deseasonalized data

P year Demand 4ma CMA SI(initial) SI DS trend
1 1 12.6 1.145284 11.00164 11.07613
2 2 8.6 11.25 11.4375 0.7519125683 0.782268 10.99368 11.37499
3 3 6.3 11.625 11.8375 0.5322069694 0.557649 11.29744 11.67385
4 4 17.5 12.05 12.2 1.4344262295 1.418562 12.33644 11.9727
5 1 14.1 12.35 12.4375 1.1336683417 1.145284 12.31136 12.27156
6 2 10.3 12.525 12.675 0.8126232742 0.782268 13.16684 12.57042
7 3 7.5 12.825 12.8625 0.583090379 0.557649 13.44933 12.86928
8 4 18.2 12.9 12.975 1.4026974952 1.418562 12.8299 13.16813
9 1 15.3 13.05 13.225 1.156899811 1.145284 13.35913 13.46699
10 2 10.6 13.4 0.782268 13.55034 13.76585
11 3 8.1 0.557649 14.52527 14.06471
12 4 19.6 1.418562 13.81681 14.36356
13 1.145284 14.66242
14 0.782268 14.96128
15 0.557649 15.26014
16 1.418562 15.55899

Third Method-Direct

P year Demand
1 1 12.6
2 2 8.6
 3 3 6.3 4.9125
4 4 17.5
5 1 14.1
6 2 10.3
7 3 7.5
8 4 18.2
9 1 15.3
10 2 10.6
11 3 8.1
12 4 19.6
13
14
15
16

Adjacent Exponentioal Smoothing(AES)

P year Demand ES(0.3) TES(0.3) F

1 1 12.6 12.6 0 12.6
2 2 8.6 12.6 -5.329071E-16 12.6
3 3 6.3 11.4 -0.36 11.04
4 4 17.5 9.87 -0.711 9.159
5 1 14.1 12.159 0.189 12.348
6 2 10.3 12.7413 0.30699 13.04829
7 3 7.5 12.00891 -0.004824 12.00409
8 4 18.2 10.65624 -0.4091787 10.24706
9 1 15.3 12.91937 0.39251358 13.31188
10 2 10.6 13.63356 0.489016575 14.12257
11 3 8.1 12.72349 0.0692915508 12.79278
12 4 19.6 11.33644 -0.367609951 10.96883
13
14
15
16
Final Forecasted
12.6853173545
Chart Title
8.8982891485 25
6.5099050806
16.9840213035 20
14.0544238925
9.8334354127 15
7.1765348379
18.6798122086 10
15.4235304306
10.768581677 5
7.8431645951
20.3756031136
0
16.7926369686 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
11.7037279412
8.5097943523
22.0713940187 SI
1 1.145284
2 0.782268
3 0.557649
4 1.418562
8 9 10 11 12
 Day 4-6 AM 6-8 AM 8-10 AM 10-noon noon-2 PM 2-4 PM 4-6 PM
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2 1900 2500 3100 1600 1800 2000 1800
3 2300 3100 2500 1500 1500 1800 1900
4 2200 3200 3100 2200 1900 2400 2100
Year 5 2400 3300 3400 1700 2200 2100 2000
One 6 2600 2800 3500 1500 1700 1900 1500
7 1900 2800 3100 1200 1500 2000 1400
8 2000 2700 2500 1500 2000 2300 1900
9 2400 3200 3600 1600 2100 2500 1800
10 2600 3300 3100 200 2500 2600 2400
11 3100 3900 4100 2200 2600 2300 2500
12 2800 3400 3900 1900 2100 2500 2000
13 2700 3800 4300 2100 2400 2400 2400
14 2400 3500 4100 2400 3000 3200 2600
Year 15 3300 3700 4000 2600 2600 2700 2900
Two 16 3500 4000 3800 2300 2700 3100 3000
17 2900 4100 3900 2400 3000 3200 2500
18 3400 3800 4200 2000 2500 3000 2200
19 3600 3600 4000 2300 2600 2800 2600
20 3700 3700 4000 2200 2600 2700 2400
21 4400 4400 4500 2600 3300 3400 3000
22 4200 4500 4300 2500 3400 3600 3100
23 4500 4500 4700 2700 3400 3500 2900
24 4600 4600 4600 2500 3200 3500 2800
Year 25 4500 4300 4400 2900 3300 3300 3300
Three 26 4200 4300 4500 3000 4000 3400 3000
27 4500 4500 5100 3300 4000 3700 3100
28 4300 4200 4300 2800 3500 4000 3300
29 4900 4100 4200 3100 3600 3900 3400
30 4700 4500 4100 3000 4000 3700 3400
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