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    Solution Midterm Exam - Engineering Statistics - 2018

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    UBAID ULLAH
    This document is a midterm exam for an engineering statistics course consisting of 3 questions. Question 1 asks for the probability of a filter failing quality inspection and the most likely production plant if it fails. Question 2 defines a discrete random variable and asks to verify it is a valid probability mass function, find its cumulative distribution function, and calculate a probability. Question 3 defines a binomial random variable and asks to find its parameters from given statistics and calculate another probability.

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    Solution Midterm Exam - Engineering Statistics - 2018

    Uploaded by

    UBAID ULLAH
    133 views3 pages
    This document is a midterm exam for an engineering statistics course consisting of 3 questions. Question 1 asks for the probability of a filter failing quality inspection and the most likely production plant if it fails. Question 2 defines a discrete random variable and asks to verify it is a valid probability mass function, find its cumulative distribution function, and calculate a probability. Question 3 defines a binomial random variable and asks to find its parameters from given statistics and calculate another probability.

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    This document is a midterm exam for an engineering statistics course consisting of 3 questions. Question 1 asks for the probability of a filter failing quality inspection and the most likely production plant if it fails. Question 2 defines a discrete random variable and asks to verify it is a valid probability mass function, find its cumulative distribution function, and calculate a probability. Question 3 defines a binomial random variable and asks to find its parameters from given statistics and calculate another probability.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    133 views3 pages

    Solution Midterm Exam - Engineering Statistics - 2018

    Uploaded by

    UBAID ULLAH
    This document is a midterm exam for an engineering statistics course consisting of 3 questions. Question 1 asks for the probability of a filter failing quality inspection and the most likely production plant if it fails. Question 2 defines a discrete random variable and asks to verify it is a valid probability mass function, find its cumulative distribution function, and calculate a probability. Question 3 defines a binomial random variable and asks to find its parameters from given statistics and calculate another probability.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 3

    FACULTY OF ENGINEERING SCIENCES

    ES 202 - Engineering Statistics


    Spring Semester 2018
    Midterm Exam

    Time Allowed: 1 Hour Total Marks: 30

    Name: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Reg. No. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Section. . . . . . . . . .

    INSTRUCTIONS
    • No mobile phone is allowd during the exam.

    • No exchange of calculators/formula sheets/tables is allowed during the exam.

    • Clearly write down your name, registeration number, and section on your answer sheets and this
    question paper at the begining of examination.

    • Write your answers clearly and legibly. Separate all scratch work from your answers and cross it
    out at the end.

    1. A manufacturing firm has three production plants A, B, and C where they produce oil filters.
    The share of production of these plants for a particular type of filter is 40%, 25%, and 35%,
    respectively. The estimated proportion of defective filters produced at each plant is 0.025, 0.01,
    and 0.015 respectively. Production from the three plants arrive in a random manner at the single
    Quality Control Center (QCC) where they are inspected for defects.

    (a) What is the probability that a filter will not pass the quality test? (4 points)
    (b) If a filter fails to pass the quality test at QCC, what is the most likely production plant it
    came from? (6 points)

    2. Let X be a discrete random variable with probability masss function (pmf) given by
    1
    fX (k) = for k = 1, 2, 3, . . . , ∞
    k(k + 1)

    (a) Check that fX (k) is a valid pmf. (4 points)


    (b) Find the cumulative distrbution function (cdf) of X. (4 points)
    (c) Calculate P r(X ≥ 3) (2 points)

    3. Let X be a binomial random variable with mean 6 and variance 3.6.

    (a) Find the parameters n and p of X. (5 points)


    (b) Calculate P r(X = 4). (5 points)

    1
    FACULTY OF ENGINEERING SCIENCES
    ES 202 - Engineering Statistics
    Spring Semester 2018
    Midterm Exam

    Solution
    1. Given:
    P r(A) = 0.4; P r(B) = 0.25; P r(C) = 0.35;
    P r(D|A) = 0.025; P r(D|B) = 0.01; P r(D|C) = 0.015

    (a) P r(filter will not pass test) = P r(filter is defective) = P r(D)

    Using Law of Total Probability (Partition Law), we have

    P r(D) = P r(D|A) × P r(A) + P r(D|B) × P r(B) + P r(D|C) × P r(C)

    = (0.025 × 0.4) + (0.01 × 0.25) + (0.015 × 0.35) = 0.01 + 0.0025 + 0.00525 = 0.01775
    (b) Using Baye’s Rule

    P r(D|A) × P r(A)
    P r(A|D) =
    P r(D|A) × P r(A) + P r(D|B) × P r(B) + P r(D|C) × P r(C)
    0.025 × 0.4
    = = 0.56338
    0.01775
    Similarly,

    P r(D|B) × P r(B)
    P r(B|D) =
    P r(D|A) × P r(A) + P r(D|B) × P r(B) + P r(D|C) × P r(C)
    0.01 × 0.25
    = = 0.14085
    0.01775
    and,

    P r(D|C) × P r(C)
    P r(C|D) =
    P r(D|A) × P r(A) + P r(D|B) × P r(B) + P r(D|C) × P r(C)
    0.015 × 0.35
    = = 0.29578
    0.01775
    Since 0.56338 > 0.29578 > 0.14085, therefore, the defective filter was most likely
    produced at plant A.

    2. Given:
    1
    fX (k) = , for k = 1, 2, 3, . . . , ∞
    k(k + 1)
    (a)
    1
    k≥1 ⇒ 0< < 1 for all k.
    k(k + 1)
    Also
    ∞ ∞  
    1 1 1 X 1 X 1 1
    = − ⇒ = −
    k(k + 1) k k+1 k(k + 1) k k+1
    k=1 k=1
    1 1 1 1 1
    =1− + − + − + ...∞ = 1
    2 2 3 3 4
    1
    This proves that fX (k) = is a valid p.m.f.
    k(k + 1)

    2
    (b)
    k k  
    X 1 X 1 1
    FX (k) = P r(X ≤ k) = = −
    k(k + 1) k k+1
    k=1 k=1

    1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 k
    =1− + − + − + ··· + − =1− =
    2 2 3 3 4 k k+1 k+1 k+1
    k
    ⇒ FX (k) = P r(X ≤ k) =
    k+1
    (c)
    2 1
    P r(X ≥ 3) = 1 − P r(X < 3) = 1 − P r(X ≤ 2) = 1 − =
    3 3
    3. Given:
    X ∼ Bin(x; n, p); E(X) = 6, V ar(X) = 3.6

    (a)
    E(X) = np = 6 and V ar(X) = np(1 − p) = 3.6
    ⇒ p = 0.4 and n = 15

    (b)  
    15
    P r(X = 4) = (0.4)4 (0.6)11 = 0.12678
    4

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