D7.3 Business-Plan Issue-2 V Final For EC-review
D7.3 Business-Plan Issue-2 V Final For EC-review
D7.3 Business-Plan Issue-2 V Final For EC-review
I-REACT is co-founded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme of the European Commission
under grant agreement n. 700256
1
PU = Public, PP = Restricted to other programme participants (including the Commission Services),
RE = Restricted to a group specified by the consortium (including the Commission Services),
CO = Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission Services)
Improving Resilience to Emergencies through Advanced Cyber Technologies
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................................ 3
LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................................... 5
LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................................................... 7
1 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................... 10
1.1 Purpose of the Document ................................................................................................... 10
1.2 Structure of the Document ................................................................................................. 10
1.3 Acronyms list ....................................................................................................................... 11
1.4 Reference and applicable documents ................................................................................. 12
2 METHODOLOGY .......................................................................................................................... 17
2.1 Approach ............................................................................................................................. 17
2.2 Activities .............................................................................................................................. 20
3 IMPACT OF NATURAL HAZARDS AND EXPECTED TRENDS.......................................................... 21
3.1 Global and European impact of natural disasters ............................................................... 21
3.2 Floods and wildfires: past and future trends ...................................................................... 25
4 THE I-REACT PROPOSED SERVICES ............................................................................................. 30
4.1 I-REACT Core Services.......................................................................................................... 30
4.1.1 I-REACT Social service .................................................................................................. 31
4.1.2 I-REACT Reporting service ............................................................................................ 35
4.1.3 I-REACT Emergency Management service ................................................................... 38
4.2 I-REACT Added Value Services............................................................................................. 41
4.2.1 Season and Climate Prediction service ........................................................................ 41
4.2.2 Weather Forecast and Extreme Event Detection service ............................................ 44
4.2.3 Hazard and Risk Maps service ...................................................................................... 46
4.2.4 UAV Data services ........................................................................................................ 51
4.2.5 Smart Glasses ............................................................................................................... 52
4.2.6 Wearable ...................................................................................................................... 54
4.2.7 Nowcast, forecast, flood delineation, burned area ..................................................... 55
4.2.8 LEMS ............................................................................................................................. 57
4.3 CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................................... 60
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1-1 Main content for the BP Deliverable ................................................................................ 10
Figure 2-1: Approach for I-REACT Business Plan................................................................................ 17
Figure 2-2: Main sources of information for I-REACT Business Plan ................................................. 18
Figure 2-3: Main methodologies for I-REACT Business Plan .............................................................. 20
Figure 3-1: Overview on worldwide main natural disasters sub-groups (2007-2017) ...................... 22
Figure 3-2: Overview on European main natural disasters sub-groups (2007-2017)........................ 23
Figure 3-3: Overview on worldwide main natural disasters types (2007-2017) ............................... 24
Figure 3-4: Overview on European main natural disasters types (2007-2017) ................................. 25
Figure 3-5: Global occurrence of floods and wildfires (2007-2017) .................................................. 26
Figure 3-6: European occurrence of floods and wildfires (2007-2017) ............................................. 26
Figure 3-7: Main drivers and trends for the selected disaster types................................................. 27
Figure 3-8: Global and European Flood Forecasts ............................................................................. 28
Figure 3-9: Global and European Wildfire Forecasts ......................................................................... 28
Figure 4-1: I-REACT architecture ........................................................................................................ 30
Figure 4-2: Components of the I-REACT Social service ...................................................................... 32
Figure 4-3: Example of I-REACT event detection ............................................................................... 34
Figure 4-4: Components of the I-REACT Reporting Service ............................................................... 35
Figure 4-5: I-REACT mobile app ......................................................................................................... 37
Figure 4-6: Components of the I-REACT Emergency Management Service ...................................... 38
Figure 4-7: I-REACT DSS Front-end web application .......................................................................... 39
Figure 4-8: Components of the I-REACT season and climate prediction ........................................... 42
Figure 4-9: Components of the I-REACT weather forecast and extreme event detection................ 45
Figure 4-10: Components of the I-REACT hazard and risk maps service ........................................... 46
Figure 4-11: Components of the I-REACT UAV Data service.............................................................. 51
Figure 4-12: Components of the I-REACT Smart Glasses Service ...................................................... 53
Figure 4-13: Components of the I-REACT Wearable Service ............................................................. 54
Figure 4-14: Components of the I-REACT Nowcast, forecast, flood delineation and burned area
service ................................................................................................................................................ 56
Figure 4-15: Components of the I-REACT Local EMS ......................................................................... 58
Figure 5-1: Market size by geospatial and disaster recovery solution (USD mln – 2016-2023) ........ 70
Figure 5-2: Percentages by solution and system – market size (tot- 2016-2023). ............................ 71
Figure 5-3: Market size by selected system for geospatial solution (USD mln – 2016-2023) ........... 72
Figure 5-4: Market size by selected system for disaster recovery solution (USD mln – 2016-2023) 72
Figure 5-5: European target markets ................................................................................................. 76
Figure 5-6: Worldwide target market ................................................................................................ 77
LIST OF TABLES
Table 2-1 Potential end-users from incident and emergency market............................................... 18
Table 2-2 Key stakeholders from incident and emergency market ................................................... 19
Table 2-3: Preliminary interview guide .............................................................................................. 19
Table 3-1: Disasters sub-groups and related types (2007-2017) ....................................................... 23
Table 4-1: Main functionalities and features of the I-REACT season prediction ............................... 43
Table 4-2: Main functionalities and features of the I-REACT climate prediction .............................. 43
Table 4-3: Main functionalities and features of the I-REACT weather forecast and extreme event
detection ............................................................................................................................................ 45
Table 4-4: Main functionalities and features of the I-REACT hazard and risk maps service ............. 50
Table 4-5: Main functionalities and features of the I-REACT UAV Data service ................................ 52
Table 4-6: Main functionalities and features of the I-REACT Smart Glasses ..................................... 53
Table 4-7: Main functionalities and features of the I-REACT wearable............................................. 55
Table 4-8: Main functionalities and features of I-REACT Nowcast, Forecast, Flood Delineation,
Burned area service ........................................................................................................................... 57
Table 4-9: Main functionalities and features of the I-REACT LEMS ................................................... 58
Table 4-10: Main functionalities and features of the I-REACT LEMS ................................................. 59
Table 4-11: TRL and DRL of man I-REACT services ............................................................................. 60
Table 5-1: Incident and Emergency Management Market segmentation......................................... 63
Table 5-2: List of main I-REACT competitors for the government industry ...................................... 82
Table 5-3: List of main I-REACT competing solutions for the government industry ......................... 85
Table 5-4: List of main EU projects dedicated to disaster management ........................................... 88
Table 5-5: Other relevant projects dedicated to disaster management ........................................... 88
Table 5-6: Overall ranking of European insurance groups operating in non-life products, 2016 ..... 95
Table 5-7 Number of domestic enterprises in Property insurance, in Europe 2016. Source: Insurance
Europe Statistics 2018........................................................................................................................ 96
Table 5-8 Main P&C companies operating in the US and worldwide in 2017. Source: S&P Global
Market Intelligence ............................................................................................................................ 99
Table 5-9: List of main I-REACT competitors for the insurance industry ......................................... 108
Table 5-10: List of main R&D projects for the insurance industry ................................................... 109
Table 6-1 S.W.O.T. analysis .............................................................................................................. 123
Table 6-2 Main BP assumptions for I-REACT................................................................................... 125
Table 6-3 Revenues for I-REACT Social ............................................................................................ 128
Table 6-4 Revenues for I-REACT Reporting ...................................................................................... 129
Table 6-5 Revenues for I-REACT EMS............................................................................................... 130
Table 6-6 Revenues for I-REACT Added Value Services .................................................................. 132
Table 6-7 Direct cost for I-REACT services ....................................................................................... 135
Table 6-8 Structure Costs for I-REACT.............................................................................................. 137
Table 6-9 Cash flow for I-REACT services ....................................................................................... 139
1 INTRODUCTION
The present document is one of the deliverables foreseen as part of Work Package 7 “Business
Assessment and Exploitation”, i.e. the I-REACT Business Plan, as main output of Task 7.2 “Business
Plan and Implementation Roadmap”.
• Chapter 8 presents the implementation roadmap, with key strategies and drivers for the
exploitation activities and solution adoption;
• Chapter 9 reports the main conclusions; and
• Annexes includes all the main annexes.
[RD03] D2.7 Report on Technical Requirements and Overall System 3.0 30/12/2016
Architecture
[RD04] D7.1 “Report on Cost Benefit Analysis” - 01/06/2019
[RD05] Risk management plan and knowledge management strategy 04/08/2016
[RD06] Overview of Natural and Man-made Disaster Risks the European - 23/05/2017
Union may face, EC
[RD07] Flood damage to cost up to $1 trillion per year by 2050, Science News - 2013
[RD08] Frequency of severe flooding across Europe 'to double by 2050', - 2014
Independent
[RD09] Two billion will be in flood path by 2050, UNU expert warns, UN - -
[RD10] As West Warms, Wildfires Expected to Double by 2050, LiveScience - 2013
[RD11] “What do wildfires have to do with climate change?”, Columbia - 2014
University
[RD12] Incident and Emergency Management Market by System, Solution, - 2018
Service, Simulation, Communication Tool and Device, Industry
Vertical, and Region - Global Forecast to 2023, Markets and Markets
[RD13] Worldometers, 2018 - -
[RD14] Disaster Management, Space Based Solutions for Developing Nations - 2018
– SH-SSP
[RD15] Internet of Things for Disaster Management: - 2017
State-of-the-Art and Prospects, IEEE
[RD16] United Nations Platform for Space-based Information for Disaster - -
Management and Emergency Response. UN-SPIDER, UN Office For
Outer Space Affairs
[RD17] Copernicus Editorial, EC - 2018
[RD18] Commercial Satellite Imaging Market Forecasted to Hit $5,266.5 - 2018
Million by 2023, P&S Market Research
[RD19] GPS-based Emergency Response System Market Is Projected to - 2018
Witness Significant Growth By 2018, Radiant Insights, Inc.
[RD20] 2.4bn smartphone users in 2017, Emarketer - 2017
[RD21] IoT connections outlook, Ericsson - 2017
[RD22] JRC Technical report (Peseta II. Project): Modelling the impacts of - 2017
climate change on forest fire danger in Europe
[RD23] World Population Prospects, The 2017 Revision, United Nations, New - 2017
York
[RD24] The World’s cities in 2016, data booklet, United Nations - 2016
[RD25] Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2016, JRC Science - 2016
for Policy Report
[RD26] American Geophysical Union research report - 14/12/2012
[RD27] Collecting Data on disasters: Easier said than done (Guha-Sapir and - 2006
Below)
[RD28] Incident and Emergency Management Market by System and Solution - 2016
(Web-Based Emergency Management, Mass Notification),
Professional Service, Simulation, Communication Tool and Device,
Vertical, and Region - Global Forecast to 2021, MarketsandMarkets
Report
[RD29] Munich Re "Natural catastrophe review: Series of hurricanes makes - 2018
2017 year of highest insured losses ever".
[RD30] Swiss Re "Natural catastrophes and climate change", 2017 Corporate - 2018
Responsibility Report.
[RD31] Catastrophe models are good for the insurance business", Financial - 2017
Times, John Dizard
[RD32] Global Insurance Market Report (GIMAR) 2016, International - 31/01/2017
Association of Insurance and Supervisors (IAIS)
[RD33] Insurance markets in 2016: China saves the day, Allianz - 2017
[RD34] Global insurance industry set to grow more strongly by 2018, Munich - 2017
RE
[RD35] European Insurance - Key facts, Insurance Europe. Source: - 2017
https://www.insuranceeurope.eu/
[RD36] Global property and casualty insurance market 2016-2020, Technavio - 2016
[RD37] Ranking of the Largest European Insurance Groups in 2016, Mapfre. - 2017
[RD38] Top 100 P&C insurance companies, Standard’s & Poor’s Global market - 2017
intelligence. Source: https://infogram.com/nupc_2018_top100-
groups-1h174971d0qd6zj
[RD59] "How Insurtech Will Accelerate the Social and Economic Impact Of - 03/2018
Insurers" by Roger Peverelly and Reggy de Feniks
[RD60] "Blockchain Market by Provider, Application (Payments, Exchanges, - 12/2017
Smart Contracts, Documentation, Digital Identity, Supply Chain
Management, and GRC Management), Organization Size, Industry
Vertical, and Region - Global Forecast to 2022" Research and Markets
[RD61] "How Blockchain Could Disrupt Insurance", CBInsights - 03/2018
[RD62] "Drones for Insurance Industry: Global Market Research, Forecast, - 12/2016
and Strategy 2016-2025" Research and markets
[RD63] "Drone Analytics Market by Industry (Agriculture & Forestry, - 03/2018
Construction, Insurance, Mining & Quarrying, Utility,
Telecommunication, Oil & Gas, Transportation, Scientific Research),
Application, Type, Solution, and Region - Global Forecast to
2022",MarketsandMarkets
[RD64] "Digital Insurance Trends: Insurance drones, boots on the ground, and - 05/2018
big data", Finextra
[RD65] "Opening risk analysis" by C. Scawthorn. Proceeding of the 14th 2008
World Conference on Earthquake Engineering October 12-17, 2008,
Beijing, China. Source:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228418590_Opening_Ris
k_Analysis
[RD66] The climate wise initiative. Source: -
https://www.cisl.cam.ac.uk/business-action/sustainable- 2006
finance/climatewise/
[RD67] The insuresilience initiative. Source: - 2015
http://www.insuresilience.org/members-partners/
[RD68] PERILS Initiative. Source: www.perils.org/web/products/earth- - 2010
observation.html
[RD69] D2.2 "Users and Stakeholders requirement analysis, operational - 2016
procedures, processes and scenarios"
[RD70] United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), -
PreventionWeb. Source:
https://www.preventionweb.net/organizations/1171
[RD71] International disaster response laws, rules and principles (IDRL), -
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.
Source: https://www.ifrc.org/en/what-we-do/disaster-law/about-
disaster-law/international-disaster-response-laws-rules-and-
principles/
[RD72] European Parliament resolution of 21 September 2010 on the - 2010
Commission communication: A Community approach on the
prevention of natural and man-made disasters (2009/2151(INI))
Source: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?pubRef=-
//EP//TEXT+TA+P7-TA-2010-
0326+0+DOC+XML+V0//EN&language=EN
[RD73] Decision No 1313/2013/EU of the European Parliament and of the - 2013
Council of 17 December 2013 on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism.
Source: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-
content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32013D1313
[RD74] Decision (EU) 2019/420 amending Decision No 1313/2013/EU on a - 2019
Union Civil Protection Mechanism. Source: https://eur-
lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019D0420
[RD75] D7.4 Exploitation Plan - 06/2019