Flood Propagation of The Blue Nile in The Sudan Using Muskingum Routing
Flood Propagation of The Blue Nile in The Sudan Using Muskingum Routing
Flood Propagation of The Blue Nile in The Sudan Using Muskingum Routing
Abstract
This work has dealt with the flood routing of the Blue Nile using the Muskingum method. It is well-
recognized by hydrologists and water resources engineers that river flood routing models have a wide
spectrum of sophistication. The Muskingum method which represents a linear reservoir concept is an
example of the simplest form. The linear form of the Muskingum model has been widely applied to
river flood routing because of its simplicity among the many models used for flood routing in natural
channels and rivers. This study demonstrates the application of the Muskingum method for routing
floods using daily flood data (from year 1965 to 2000) available for three reaches of the Blue Nile from
Eddeim on the Ethiopian/Sudanese border to Khartoum the Sudanese capital. The study illustrates how
to estimate the routing parameters using one day as a routing time interval without considering any of
the limited channel cross sections data. The routing parameters are derived from past observed flow
hydrographs available at the inlet and outlet of the studied reaches. Model simulations were compared
and evaluated by applying a popular statistical measure to determine the degree of goodness of fit
between observed and simulated hydrographs namely: the coefficient of determination. The obtained
results reveal the appropriateness of the method for practical flood routing in the river channel. In terms
of overall performance, the Muskingum method proved to be a simple and reliable method avoiding
complicated mathematical and numerical computations for the case considered. The major advantage
of the routing approach followed in this work is that no information on channel roughness and
geometry are required to estimate the corresponding parameters.
Key Words: Blue Nile, channel routing, hydrologic routing model, Muskingum method.
1. INTRODUCTION
The Blue Nile and its tributaries rise on the Ethiopian Plateau at a height of 2000 to 3000 meters above
sea-level. The Blue Nile Basin, including Lake Tana and its basin, has an area of 324 530 km2, which
extends from longitude 32.5ºE to 40ºE and latitude 8ºN to 15.5ºN (Fig. 1).
After crossing the Sudan frontier the Blue Nile flows for a distance of around 730 km till its point of
junction with the White Nile at Khartoum. The river in the Sudan has an average gradient of about 1 in
10000 (Hurst, H.E. 1950).
The Blue Nile is a highly seasonal river, subjected to flooding events that cause severe damage along
its course. Loss of property, damage to irrigation facilities and water services and the spread of water
related diseases result from floods. During exceptional wet periods, the Blue Nile can give rise to large-
scale flooding, particularly in the floodplain areas of Ethiopia and Sudan. The disaster in 1988
appeared to be the first of a series of high floods which struck the Sudan in 1994, 1996, 1998 and 1999.
Floods are also of great benefits, such as: recharge of the groundwater aquifers, improve rainfed
agriculture, enhance land fertility, flush sediment from rivers/reservoirs and reduce salinity in
floodplain areas.
The Blue Nile contributes the largest volume of water to the Main Nile. At Khartoum its average flow
for the period 1965-2000 is 25.5 x 109 m3 (August-September) falling to 0.6 x 109 m3 in March.
During August and September the highest months on the Main Nile at Dongola the proportion
contributed by the Blue Nile varies from 68 to 81% of the total flow. In 1988 the river at Eddeim
exceeded its normal flow by around 34% on ten-day basis. The average record in the second period of
Nile Basin Water Science & Engineering Journal, Vol.3, Issue1, 2010 39
Flood Propagation of the Blue Nile in the Sudan using Muskingum Routing
August was 682 x 106 m3/day while in a normal year 511 x 106 m3/day is recorded. The calculated
percentage at Roseires, Sennar and Khartoum was 30%, 36% and 58% respectively (Mekawi, 2005).
The current work has explored the application of the Muskingum method to river flow routing in the
Blue Nile during the flood season from July to September. The method is a commonly used hydrologic
routing method for handling a variable discharge-storage relationship. Storage is linearly related to the
inflow and outflow in the Muskingum method for flow routing in channels.
Tow reservoirs are located within the considered reach namely Roseires and Sennar. The two dams
serve more than 1.05 x 1010 m2 of the Sudan irrigated area plus more than 90% of the total
hydropower generation of the country. They are usually kept at their minimum operating level during
the flood to allow the heavily silted water to pass to the downstream. Such an operation, which is
intended to minimize reservoir siltation, limits the options to use these reservoirs for flood control and
hydropower generation.
Briefly this work aims to formulate a flood routing model for the Blue Nile using Muskingum method.
The proposed model will be applied for the reach from Eddeim on the Ethiopian/Sudanese border to
Khartoum where the confluence of the Blue and White Niles. It would enable the prediction of the
daily flows at the downstream gauging sites along the river’s water course during flood-time from July
to September.
Flow routing is a procedure to determine the time and magnitude of flow (i.e., the flow hydrograph) at
a point on a watercourse from known or assumed hydrographs at one or more points upstream. In a
broad sense, flow routing may be considered as an analysis to trace the flow through a hydrologic
system, given the input (Subramanya, K. 1994). The hydrologic analysis of problems such as flood
forecasting, flood protection, reservoir design and spillway design invariably include flood routing. In
these applications two broad categories of routing can be recognized.
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Flood Propagation of the Blue Nile in the Sudan using Muskingum Routing
In channel routing the change in the shape of a hydrograph as it travels down a channel is studied. By
considering a channel reach and an input hydrograph at the upstream end, this form of routing aims to
predict the flood hydrograph at various sections of the reach. Information on the flood-peak attenuation
and the duration of high-water levels obtained by channel routing is of utmost importance in flood-
forecasting operations and flood-protection works.
A variety of routing methods are available and they can be broadly classified into two categories as
follows:
9 Hydrologic routing; and
9 Hydraulic routing.
Hydrologic routing methods employ the equation of continuity while hydraulic methods employ the
continuity equation together with the equation of motion of unsteady flow.
For a hydrologic system, input I(t), output Q(t) and storage S(t) are related by the continuity equation
as follows:
If the inflow hydrograph, I(t), is known, Eq. (1) cannot be solved directly to obtain the outflow
hydrograph, Q(t), because both Q and S are unknown. A second relationship, or storage function, is
needed to relate S, I, and Q; coupling the storage function with the continuity equation provides a
solvable combination of two equations and two unknowns. The specific form of the storage function to
be employed depends on the nature of the system being analyzed. The general form is as follows:
S = ƒ(Q) (2)
Alternatively, in a small time interval ǻt the difference between the total inflow volume and total
outflow volume in a reach is equal to the change in storage in that reach.
Ʈ ǻt – Q ǻt = ǻ S (3)
Where:
Ʈ = average inflow in time ǻt (m3/day);
Q = average outflow in time ǻt (m3/day); and
ǻ S = change in storage (m3).
By taking Ʈ = (I1 + I2)/2, Q = (Q1 + Q2)/2 and ǻ S = S2 – S1 with suffixes 1 and 2 to denote the
beginning and end of time interval ǻt Eq. (3) is written as follows:
In reservoir routing, the storage is a unique function of the outflow discharge, S = ƒ(Q). However, in
channel routing the storage is a function of both outflow and inflow discharges and hence a different
routing model is needed. The flow in a river during a flood belongs to the category of gradually varied
unsteady flow. The water surface in a channel reach is not only not parallel to the channel bottom but
also varies with time [Fig. (2)]. Considering a channel reach having a flood wave, the total volume in
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Flood Propagation of the Blue Nile in the Sudan using Muskingum Routing
storage can be considered under two categories as follows: prism storage and wedge storage
(Subramanya, K. 1994).
Prism storage
It is the volume that would exist if uniform flow occurred at the downstream depth, i.e. the volume
formed by an imaginary plane parallel to the channel bottom drawn at the outflow section water
surface.
Wedge storage
It is the wedge-like volume formed between the actual water surface profile and the top surface of the
prism storage.
The most widely used method of hydrological stream routing is the Muskingum method originated by
McCarthy (1938). This method models the storage volume of flooding in a river channel by a
combination of wedge and prism storages. During the advance of a flood wave, inflow exceeds
outflow, producing a wedge of storage. During the recession, outflow exceeds inflow, resulting in a
negative wedge. In addition, there is a prism of storage which is formed by a volume of constant cross
section along the length of prismatic channel.
Where:
C0 = (-Kx + 0.5ǻt) / (K – Kx + 0.5ǻt)
C1 = (Kx + 0.5ǻt) / (K – Kx + 0.5ǻt)
C2 = (K – Kx + 0.5ǻt) / (K – Kx + 0.5ǻt)
Note that C0 + C1 + C2 = 1.
Where:
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Flood Propagation of the Blue Nile in the Sudan using Muskingum Routing
The travel time of flow from one point on a watershed to another can be deduced from the flow
distance and velocity. The following table presents the approximate times of travels from a gauging site
to the next along the Blue Nile as published in “The Nile Basin, vol. VII, 1946”.
To apply the Muskingum method to the first two reaches of the Blue Nile, from Eddeim to Roseires
and from Roseires to Sennar, it was necessary to compute the inflows upstream of the two dams.
It was definitely important to calculate the stored volumes of water in the Roseires reservoir. For the
period from 1966 to 1984, this is achieved by using the storage volumes that given in the “Rules for the
Operation and Maintenance of Roseires Dam and Sennar Dam” as approved by the MOIWR in 1968.
Reservoir contents were also computed from the equations derived for the bathymetric surveys of 1985
and 1992 respectively. The 1985 survey was used for the period 1985-1991, while 1992 survey is used
for the period 1992-2000.
Level (H), volume (V) relations for 1985 and 1992 are given by the following equation and the sets of
parameters as in table (2).
The analysis was firstly concentrated on the determination of the basic coefficients of the Muskingum
equation C0, C1 and C2. This has been carried out using the multiple regression option available in
Excel program.
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Flood Propagation of the Blue Nile in the Sudan using Muskingum Routing
To obtain proper results, the available data is divided into three categories dry, normal and wet years
depending on the ratio between the summation of the flows of July, August and September of the
specific year and the corresponding average flow of the period under inspection. The years are
considered as dry, wet and normal when the ratio is less than 0.95, more than 1.05 and falls between
the two mentioned categories respectively.
It can be said that the influence of the flows which determine the outputs downstream of the reach
mostly have the same weight.
By solving the equations of C0, C1 and C2, the corresponding x and K values are estimated as follows:
x = 0.022; K = 1.06 days.
Coefficient C0 C1 C2 R2
0.14 0.38 0.47 0.97
The corresponding x and K values are estimated as follows:
x = 0.140; K = 1.63 days.
For the first scenario, the set of coefficients which fit to the calibrated data is determined as follows:
Coefficient C0 C1 C2 R2
-0.02 0.17 0.86 0.99
For the second scenario, the inputs are represented by the flows of Dinder and Rahad plus the releases
downstream of Sennar dam as the mouths of the two rivers tend to be nearer to the upstream of the
considered reach and the outputs are represented by the flows at Khartoum gauging site.
The obtained coefficients show that the estimated flows mainly are dependants on the flows recorded
downstream of the reach.
One set of coefficients was determined to suit all of the calibrated years as follows:
Coefficient C0 C1 C2 R2
-0.02 0.17 0.86 0.99
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Flood Propagation of the Blue Nile in the Sudan using Muskingum Routing
Comparing the two sets, it is obvious that the contribution of the two tributaries does not have a
significant effect on the routing of the flows at Khartoum. The corresponding x and K values which
are computed from these coefficients are as follows:
x = 0.093; K = 7.15 days.
It is essential to ensure the applicability of this method to the three reaches of the Blue Nile under
inspection. A popular statistical parameter is calculated to describe the goodness of fit of the model
namely the coefficient of determination (R2).
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Flood Propagation of the Blue Nile in the Sudan using Muskingum Routing
The figures (3,5,7) give examples of the simulated flows at Roseires, Sennar and Khartoum for the
years 1998, 1988 and 1994 respectively while the figures (4,6,8) review the simulated flows of the
corresponding verification periods at the mentioned sites.
900
800
700
/day)
600
ischarge(Mm
3
500
400
300
D
200
100
0
7/1 7/10 7/19 7/28 8/6 8/15 8/24 9/2 9/11 9/20 9/29
Observed Simulated
900
800
700
Discharge (Mm /day)
600
3
500
400
300
200
100
0
68 69 70 72 74 77 85 86 89 90 96 98 99 00
Years
Observed Simulated
700
600
/day)
500
ischarge(Mm
3
400
300
D
200
100
0
7/1 7/10 7/19 7/28 8/6 8/15 8/24 9/2 9/11 9/20 9/29
Observed Simulated
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Flood Propagation of the Blue Nile in the Sudan using Muskingum Routing
800
700
600
Discharge (Mm /day)
500
3
400
300
200
100
0
75 82 88 95 98
Years
Observed Simulated
700
600
/day)
500
ischarge(Mm
3
400
300
D
200
100
0
7/1 7/10 7/19 7/28 8/6 8/15 8/24 9/2 9/11 9/20 9/29
Observed Simulated
900
800
700
Discharge (Mm /day)
600
3
500
400
300
200
100
0
68
69
74
79
80
81
87
94
98
Years
Observed Simulated
Here are some of the comments concerning the application of the Muskingum method for the flood
routing of the Blue Nile.
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Flood Propagation of the Blue Nile in the Sudan using Muskingum Routing
value equal to 0.85. These results seem to be promising and the determined coefficients manage to
simulate the target flows in a proper way as shown in the given figures.
The determined values of x and K are estimated at 0.022 and 1.10 days respectively. Particularly the
value of K is in agreement with the actual case during flood time as the flood wave needs on average
one day from Eddeim to Roseires.
The flood routing of this reach should consider the following points:
9 The flows at the upstream of Roseires dam are directly affected by the natural flows at the
upstream gauging site i.e. Eddeim.
9 No significant influence of the storage on the calculated flows upstream of the dam for the
period July till mid September and it is only marked late in the last week or two weeks of
September.
9 The effect of the evaporation can be ignored during the wet season and its amount bears no
relation to the volume of flows during the high season.
9 The contribution of the local inflows to the river during the rainy season should also be taken
into consideration.
The flood routing of the present reach can be better understood by considering the following points:
9 The flows at Sennar follow the same pattern of those released downstream of Roseires dam as
the two dams share the same regulation rules and are operated in absolute cooperation.
9 As in the case of Roseires dam, the inflows to Sennar dam are not affected by the storage
operation before mid of September.
9 The evaporation is very small in comparison with the flows in the river channel so that it has
no influence on the inflows upstream of the dam.
9 A distance of 270 km between the two dams may affect on the precision of the determination
of the routing parameters.
9 The contribution of the runoff during the rainy season should also be taken into account.
For the flood routing of the Blue Nile from Sennar to Khartoum the following points draw attention:
9 The contribution of the Dinder and Rahad rivers does not play a marked role concerning the
routing of the flows at Khartoum as it has been proved by the two adopted scenarios, although
their daily contribution ranges on average from 10% to 18% of the amount of flow at Sennar.
9 The two scenarios have shown the same results concerning their performances.
Another factor should be taken into account concerning this reach. It is the distance between the two
gauging sites. The risk site i.e. Khartoum is located 350 km far from the upstream gauging site i.e.
Sennar which may probably be unrepresentative of the flows to be expected at Khartoum. On the other
hand, the attenuating effect of the flood plain storage throughout the reach may explain the tendency of
the simulated flows to be overestimated.
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Flood Propagation of the Blue Nile in the Sudan using Muskingum Routing
The Blue Nile is treated as three separated reaches. The obtained results regarding this task are
promising as the model parameters successfully managed to simulate the flows of the Blue Nile at the
selected gauging sites with a relatively acceptable standard of accuracy.
For the first reach from Eddeim to Roseires, the obtained results are more promising than those of the
other two reaches. It is important to mention that for the second reach the simulated flows at Sennar
were underestimated and this can be attributed to the contribution of the lateral inflows.
For the third reach, the simulated flows at Khartoum were overestimated. This can be attributed to the
following factors:
9 The data at Khartoum is to some extent uncertain as proved by comparison with well known
sources. The limited number of flow measurements throughout of the year lead to poor rating
curves.
9 The attenuation effect along the considered reach. The low value of the weighting factor x
ensures this fact.
9 The actual travel time of a flood wave is on average three days so this somehow means that
the flows at the upstream gauging site are not representative of the flows to be expected at
downstream of the reach.
The Muskingum method has managed to reproduce the observed flood hydrographs and the obtained
results reveal the appropriateness of the method for practical flood routing in the Blue Nile.
9 The existence of a validated and reliable data base of the Blue Nile system is vital.
9 Improvement in data collection methods in terms of accuracy and frequency.
9 Accurate measurements are not only required at gauging sites of the network but also for the
runoff generated by seasonal streams draining to the river during heavy rainfall events.
9 The obtained results of the routing model show that it is suitable to be applied for the reach
under consideration. Therefore, it is recommended to be used for the flood routing of the Blue
Nile.
The advantage of this method is that it is simple to be understood, easy to be programmed, and
generally successful in finding the best estimates of the parameters. Channel geometry does not need to
be defined in detail. There is no requirement to assess roughness coefficients throughout the reach.
This routing is also adequate for planning when the flows remain within the range of historical records.
9 More refinement work is highly recommended for the present routing model. On the other
hand, dealing with the current Muskingum’s coefficients within flexible range (±5%) would
give good results.
6. REFERENCES
1. Chow, V.T., Maidment, D.R. and Mays, L.W., Applied Hydrology, McGraw-Hill Series in
Water Resources and Environmental Engineering.
2. Hurst, H.E. (1950), The Nile Basin, Volume VIII, The Hydrology of the Sobat and White Nile
and the Topography of the Blue Nile and Atbara, Cairo.
3. Mekawi, A. (2005), Hydrology and Flood Propagation of the Blue Nile in the Sudan, Master
Thesis - Lueneburg University, Germany.
4. Subramanya, K. (1994), Engineering Hydrology, New Delhi.
5. Sutcliffe, J.V. and Parks, Y.P. (1999), The Hydrology of the Nile, IAHS Special Publication
No. 5.
6. The MOIWR – Sudan (1968), Regulation Rules for the Working of the Reservoirs at Roseires
and Sennar on the Blue Nile.
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Flood Propagation of the Blue Nile in the Sudan using Muskingum Routing
AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY
Amira A. A. Mekawi works as research Engineer at the Hydraulics Research Station (HRS) of the
Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources, Sudan. She obtained her M Sc in water resources
management at Lueneburg University, Germany in 2005, under the sponsorship of the DAAD.
Currently she is a PhD student at the University of Gezira, Sudan. Her major interests include
hydrology and water resources issues. She can be reached at hrs_amira@hotmail.com
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