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Module 4.1 Point and Interval Estimates

This document provides information about point and interval estimates. It discusses how point estimates are single values that approximate population parameters based on sample statistics. Interval estimates provide a range of probable values for a parameter based on a confidence level. The document gives examples of calculating point estimates of proportions and constructing confidence intervals for a mean when the population variance is known. It also provides practice problems for students to demonstrate their understanding of point and interval estimates.

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1K views

Module 4.1 Point and Interval Estimates

This document provides information about point and interval estimates. It discusses how point estimates are single values that approximate population parameters based on sample statistics. Interval estimates provide a range of probable values for a parameter based on a confidence level. The document gives examples of calculating point estimates of proportions and constructing confidence intervals for a mean when the population variance is known. It also provides practice problems for students to demonstrate their understanding of point and interval estimates.

Uploaded by

Charity Quintana Villaplana
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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SHS MODULE v201720 1

ABM
Name:________________________________________Block:_________
_______
Teacher:______________________________Date:_________Score:____
____
​
4.1 Estimation of Parameters

Point and Interval Estimates ​Created by: RVO, RSO


In this module, you will spend 3.0 hours and develop the following competencies
a. Illustrates and distinguishes point and interval estimations. b. Identifies and computes point
estimator for the population mean. c. Identifies the appropriate form of the confidence interval
estimator for the population mean when:
(a) the population variance is known (b) the population variance is unknown (c) the Central Limit
Theorem is to be used.
INTRODUCTION:
Recall in your previous lessons that the population is the set of all elements that is of interest in
a particular study. The quantities that describe the population such as the mean (μ) are called
‘population parameters’​. A sample on the other hand, is a subset of the population that is
selected through a certain process of sampling to adequately represent the population. The
̅
quantities obtained from the sample such as the mean (X​) is called ​‘sample statistic’​. This
values are ​‘estimates’ ​of the corresponding population parameters. Most of the time, the
population parameters are unknown because it is nearly impossible to obtain them. For
example, to obtain the status of COVID19 health of the population of the entire Philippines
would be too great a task to do. Thus, in order to provide an information of the status of health
of a certain region, estimates are given which are obtained from a sample of the population of
interest. These estimates are specific values obtained from the sample which can be reported
as a single value (Point estimate) or a range of values (Interval estimates).
A ‘sample statistic’ is an e​stimator ​of the population parameter​. Estimators ​possess certain
important characteristics that must be considered such as: ​unbiasedness​, ​consistency​, and
efficiency​. The mean is an ​unbiased e ​ stimator because in repeated measures, the mean from
the sample will be the same with the population. However, there are cases where the mean is
not the most appropriate estimator especially if the data is not normally distributed. In this case,
of all the unbiased estimators, the one with the least variance (σ​2​) is more appropriate. This is
referred to as ​efficiency​, which tells us that some estimates are more efficient than others
depending on the shape of the distribution of the data in the population. Lastly, the ​consistency
of an estimator describes how closely the estimators stays to its value as the sample size
increases. The point estimator is consistent if the expected value moves closer to the true value
of the parameter.
Point Estimate
A point estimate is a single value that approximates the value of the population parameter.
Example​: A sample of 200 students at a large university was selected to estimate the
proportion of students that wear contact lenses. In this sample, 47 wore contact lenses. What is
the best point estimate of the proportion of students wearing contact lenses in the said
University?
Solution: n= 200 x= 47
̅
X​ = no
​ of students using contact lens
= ​47
sample size ​

= 0.235 or 23.5% are wearing contact lenses in the University


200 ​

In this example, the estimate of 23.5% is obtained from a sample and is used to describe the
entire population of the university. This is done with the assumption that the number of students
wearing contact lenses will follow normal distribution. If another sample of 200 will be surveyed,
a different estimate will be obtained. However, we have learned in the previous chapter that the
means from different samples (whatever technique of sampling is used) tend to be normally
distributed and that the mean of the sampling distribution of the means will be equal to the mean
of the population.
continuation​... ​SHS MODULE v2017 2
Interval Estimate for known population variance
Interval estimates or confidence interval is a range of probable values for a parameter. It
depends upon the confidence level used (usually 0.90, 0.95 or 0.99 or 1- α) which tells us that
the unknown population parameter is within the range specified. To construct the confidence
interval for the (μ) with known variance (σ​2​), examine the illustration in the right. At 95%
confidence level, we know that the critical values on the normal standard distribution is -1.96
is
and 1.96. This critical value multiplied by the standard error of the mean (SEM) given by σ​​ √n ​
subtracted ​ ̅
and added to the point estimate (X​) to obtain the lower and upper boundaries of the
range. Thus, the shorthand expression for obtaining the confidence interval is given by
̅ )
X​ ± (1 − α)( σ​​ √n​
where :
̅
X​ is the point estimate (mean of the sample) α is the level of significance (0.01,0.05 or 0.10) ​σ√n
is the standard error of the mean (SD of the sample)
So for a 95% confidence level or 5% level of significance (α = 0.05) the expression is
̅ σ​ ) ​ ̅ ) is the lower limit and ​ ̅ ) is the upper limit
X​ ± 1.96 ( ​ √n​ X​ − 1.96 ( σ​​ √n​ X​ + 1.96 ( σ​​ √n​
Example​: A random sample of 100 men is taken and their mean height is found to be 170cm.
The population variance is σ​2 ​= 49 cm​2​. Find the 95% confidence interval for μ, the mean height
of the population.
7
Solution: ​X​̅ = 170 cm σ​2 ​= 49 cm​2 ​σ = 7 α = 0.05 So
​ the standard error is ​σ√n =
​ ​
= 0.7 ​
√100 ​ and the 95% confidence interval is
= 170 ± 1.96(0.7) = 170 − 1.96(0.7) = 168.63 is the lower limit
= 170 + 1.96(0.7) = 171.37 is the upper limit
Therefore the μ should be between 168.63 and 171.37 based on the sample statistic obtained
from the sample.
HERE IS YOUR WORK Assuming that the data comes from a normally distributed population,
calculate the confidence interval for each exercise where the variance of the population is
known.
̅
1. X​ = 20 σ​2 ​= 9 n = 36 α = 0.5
̅
2. X​ = 25 σ​2 ​= 4 n = 40 α = 0.01
̅
3. X​ = 30 σ​2 ​= 16 n = 30 α = 0.1
continuation​... ​SHS MODULE v2017 3

SELF-ASSESSMENT Solve each problem below. Use your knowledge of the previous
lesson and this module to answer.
1. In a random sample of 1000 homes in a certain city, it is found that 628 are using LPG. What is
the point
estimate of the true proportion? 2. Below are the data as percentage of the gross income tax
paid by 20 executives. The standard deviation of
the population of executives is known to be 4.0. Calculate the
following:
a. Point estimate of the percentage of income tax paid by executives?
b. 90% and 95% confidence interval of the income tax paid by the
executives.

16.0 22.4 24.7 20.2 30.4 33.7 25.2 21.7 18.1 23.1
25.9 22.4 18.6 23.2 26.3 24.3 24.1 23.5 27.9 28.0

3. The height of a sample of 50 college students showed a mean of 174.5cm and a standard
deviation of 6.9
centimeters. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the height of all college students. 4. A
simple random sample of 36 St Bernard dog weights yields a sample mean of 193 pounds. It is
known
that the standard deviation of the population of all St Bernard dog weights is 18 pounds. Find a
confidence interval for the true mean weight of all St Bernard dogs with a 99% confidence level.
5. Researchers are concerned about the impact of students working while they are enrolled in
classes, and
they’d like to know if students work too much and therefore are spending less time on their
classes than they should be. They know from previous studies that the standard deviation of
this variable is about 5 hours. ​a. A survey of 200 students provides a sample mean of 7.10

hours worked. What is a 95%


confidence interval based on this sample? b. Suppose a confidence interval of
(6.52,7.68) is constructed. What is the alpha(α) level of
significance used? c. If the sample size is increased (say 150%, 200%, 250%) what will
happen to the confidence
interval? Discuss your answers by showing examples
(calculations).

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