Rosas Claveles

Proporción Proporción por

Mes DEMANDA Mes
por demanda EXPORTACIÓN demanda

Jan-16 13% 27,507,867 3,456,741 Jan-16 2%

Feb-16 11% 33,761,856 3,764,596 Feb-16 14%
Mar-16 2% 28,561,513 707,719 Mar-16 6%
Apr-16 6% 30,078,806 1,916,526 Apr-16 15%
May-16 17% 48,491,579 8,410,929 May-16 5%
Jun-16 4% 34,375,292 1,216,824 Jun-16 15%
Jul-16 16% 34,407,628 5,541,760 Jul-16 8%
Aug-16 4% 26,928,477 953,220 Aug-16 8%
Sep-16 6% 25,720,630 1,638,837 Sep-16 14%
Oct-16 10% 23,698,373 2,306,921 Oct-16 8%
Nov-16 5% 28,837,084 1,480,134 Nov-16 7%
Dec-16 6% 34,263,614 1,940,594 Dec-16 11%
Jan-17 3% 26,134,369 795,809 Jan-17 15%
Feb-17 10% 31,639,577 3,044,490 Feb-17 3%
Mar-17 6% 33,425,920 1,872,829 Mar-17 8%
Apr-17 11% 21,526,138 2,464,625 Apr-17 16%
May-17 12% 39,244,647 4,684,501 May-17 7%
Jun-17 11% 49,561,645 5,493,434 Jun-17 8%
Jul-17 2% 27,157,813 529,263 Jul-17 3%
Aug-17 10% 32,028,514 3,198,950 Aug-17 5%
Sep-17 11% 23,232,157 2,603,360 Sep-17 5%
Oct-17 12% 23,761,619 2,865,287 Oct-17 14%
Nov-17 3% 30,885,915 1,053,356 Nov-17 12%
Dec-17 9% 26,000,842 2,248,550 Dec-17 4%
Jan-18 4% 31,582,087 1,412,763 Jan-18 5%
Feb-18 6% 31,066,156 1,837,969 Feb-18 4%
Mar-18 2% 29,933,199 647,905 Mar-18 9%
Apr-18 10% 29,294,757 2,874,522 Apr-18 12%
May-18 14% 49,974,516 7,211,330 May-18 5%
Jun-18 10% 44,594,836 4,568,879 Jun-18 6%
Jul-18 13% 39,382,634 5,285,115 Jul-18 6%
Aug-18 14% 26,014,162 3,678,770 Aug-18 12%
Sep-18 5% 23,784,666 1,201,246 Sep-18 12%
Oct-18 9% 28,709,022 2,651,338 Oct-18 8%
Nov-18 4% 29,716,219 1,286,416 Nov-18 12%
Dec-18 7% 26,418,353 1,791,721 Dec-18 8%
Jan-19 6% 24,293,303 1,402,330 Jan-19 3%
Feb-19 12% 40,098,217 4,833,571 Feb-19 5%
Mar-19 4% 34,832,652 1,301,050 Mar-19 11%
Apr-19 9% 32,024,910 2,936,070 Apr-19 12%
May-19 5% 66,277,833 3,150,729 May-19 4%
Jun-19 3% 47,923,715 1,220,468 Jun-19 13%
Jul-19 14% 33,743,450 4,812,309 Jul-19 11%
Aug-19 7% 37,408,757 2,540,493 Aug-19 7%
Sep-19 6% 26,954,148 1,601,690 Sep-19 7%
Oct-19 14% 33,333,062 4,697,189 Oct-19 7%
Nov-19 8% 32,160,421 2,511,680 Nov-19 13%
Dec-19 13% 31,154,073 4,072,774 Dec-19 6%
100% PROMEDIO 35,080,351 100%
6%
 Astromelias

Proporción
EXPORTACIÓN DEMANDA Mes EXPORTACIÓN
por demanda

31,838,310 768,013 Jan-16 7% 23,761,841

48,764,544 6,867,235 Feb-16 8% 43,003,613
34,726,083 1,967,012 Mar-16 8% 39,620,163
34,983,885 5,413,786 Apr-16 8% 39,660,979
42,029,483 2,118,358 May-16 8% 27,169,576
39,275,279 5,996,164 Jun-16 8% 32,090,988
30,088,812 2,422,578 Jul-16 9% 28,673,395
34,902,401 2,760,333 Aug-16 8% 30,086,553
31,857,829 4,366,821 Sep-16 9% 30,055,998
41,684,421 3,296,704 Oct-16 9% 36,118,984
37,221,447 2,620,212 Nov-16 9% 38,734,393
36,754,611 4,222,023 Dec-16 9% 27,621,567
68,051,768 10,181,295 Jan-17 7% 25,765,830
103,133,213 3,078,513 Feb-17 8% 37,728,866
80,281,580 6,342,383 Mar-17 8% 33,098,889
69,176,908 10,933,076 Apr-17 9% 23,728,391
103,826,204 7,454,259 May-17 8% 33,945,543
84,376,157 6,529,409 Jun-17 9% 42,513,596
88,300,060 2,505,578 Jul-17 9% 30,750,175
75,207,420 3,596,739 Aug-17 8% 37,551,943
81,043,859 3,889,198 Sep-17 8% 27,468,736
90,087,075 12,981,543 Oct-17 9% 29,215,902
95,509,152 11,802,849 Nov-17 9% 31,672,340
82,198,969 3,488,952 Dec-17 9% 29,399,190
91,757,136 4,788,662 Jan-18 7% 32,239,987
91,710,457 3,492,610 Feb-18 7% 33,243,840
85,766,289 7,977,676 Mar-18 8% 29,682,364
74,760,056 9,172,215 Apr-18 8% 32,010,153
95,696,285 4,767,063 May-18 8% 42,516,917
78,885,812 4,980,557 Jun-18 8% 38,386,592
101,565,750 6,412,484 Jul-18 8% 45,226,063
69,448,793 8,361,768 Aug-18 8% 36,001,343
69,912,744 8,108,082 Sep-18 9% 28,719,015
89,745,940 7,561,714 Oct-18 9% 39,292,328
73,645,850 8,698,722 Nov-18 9% 32,311,919
92,630,720 7,335,206 Dec-18 9% 36,204,176
85,397,011 2,189,002 Jan-19 3% 28,214,293
95,493,786 4,677,170 Feb-19 5% 36,540,334
114,823,841 12,210,171 Mar-19 6% 36,644,911
70,559,679 8,453,997 Apr-19 7% 33,335,466
114,861,471 4,964,594 May-19 8% 39,813,797
69,652,038 9,334,334 Jun-19 9% 36,102,284
78,512,439 9,019,581 Jul-19 9% 28,153,539
77,447,009 5,625,093 Aug-19 10% 41,805,638
88,456,793 6,228,363 Sep-19 10% 27,796,448
 95,306,484 6,922,254 Oct-19 11% 35,312,278
80,543,265 10,650,373 Nov-19 12% 45,744,480
105,128,589 6,224,979 Dec-19 11% 29,578,410
PROMEDIO 86,499,912 100% PROMEDIO
DEMANDA

1,731,180
3,335,180
2,979,660
3,169,150
2,234,865
2,677,391
2,459,645
2,545,513
2,684,202
3,268,110
3,504,757
2,434,333
1,836,318
2,912,993
2,801,242
2,043,425
2,772,093
3,661,156
2,739,437
2,843,577
2,202,393
2,494,305
2,821,589
2,750,036
2,273,706
2,404,618
2,361,707
2,604,804
3,536,669
3,123,683
3,843,806
3,059,789
2,492,790
3,517,125
2,921,512
3,437,105
979,663
1,691,682
2,205,481
2,314,963
3,225,655
3,175,664
2,606,809
4,161,209
2,702,432
 3,841,845
5,294,500
3,149,553
35,349,456
 Rosas

Error Error %
Error
No. Mes DT PM3 Absoluto Absoluto
(ME)
(MAD) (MAPE)
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1 Jan-16 3,456,741
2 Feb-16 3,764,596
3 Mar-16 707,719
4 Apr-16 1,916,526 2,643,019 726,493 726,493 37.91%
5 May-16 8,410,929 2,129,614 - 6,281,315 6,281,315 74.68%
6 Jun-16 1,216,824 3,678,391 2,461,567 2,461,567 202.29%
7 Jul-16 5,541,760 3,848,093 - 1,693,667 1,693,667 30.56%
8 Aug-16 953,220 5,056,504 4,103,284 4,103,284 430.47%
9 Sep-16 1,638,837 2,570,601 931,765 931,765 56.86%
10 Oct-16 2,306,921 2,711,272 404,351 404,351 17.53%
11 Nov-16 1,480,134 1,632,993 152,859 152,859 10.33%
12 Dec-16 1,940,594 1,808,630 - 131,964 131,964 6.80%
13 Jan-17 795,809 1,909,216 1,113,407 1,113,407 139.91%
14 Feb-17 3,044,490 1,405,512 - 1,638,978 1,638,978 53.83%
15 Mar-17 1,872,829 1,926,964 54,136 54,136 2.89%
16 Apr-17 2,464,625 1,904,376 - 560,249 560,249 22.73%
17 May-17 4,684,501 2,460,648 - 2,223,853 2,223,853 47.47%
18 Jun-17 5,493,434 3,007,318 - 2,486,116 2,486,116 45.26%
19 Jul-17 529,263 4,214,187 3,684,924 3,684,924 696.24%
20 Aug-17 3,198,950 3,569,066 370,116 370,116 11.57%
21 Sep-17 2,603,360 3,073,883 470,523 470,523 18.07%
22 Oct-17 2,865,287 2,110,524 - 754,762 754,762 26.34%
23 Nov-17 1,053,356 2,889,199 1,835,842 1,835,842 174.29%
24 Dec-17 2,248,550 2,174,001 - 74,549 74,549 3.32%
25 Jan-18 1,412,763 2,055,731 642,968 642,968 45.51%
26 Feb-18 1,837,969 1,571,557 - 266,412 266,412 14.49%
27 Mar-18 647,905 1,833,094 1,185,189 1,185,189 182.93%
28 Apr-18 2,874,522 1,299,545 - 1,574,976 1,574,976 54.79%
29 May-18 7,211,330 1,786,798 - 5,424,531 5,424,531 75.22%
30 Jun-18 4,568,879 3,577,919 - 990,961 990,961 21.69%
31 Jul-18 5,285,115 4,884,910 - 400,205 400,205 7.57%
32 Aug-18 3,678,770 5,688,442 2,009,671 2,009,671 54.63%
33 Sep-18 1,201,246 4,510,922 3,309,676 3,309,676 275.52%
34 Oct-18 2,651,338 3,388,377 737,039 737,039 27.80%
35 Nov-18 1,286,416 2,510,451 1,224,035 1,224,035 95.15%
36 Dec-18 1,791,721 1,713,000 - 78,721 78,721 4.39%
37 Jan-19 1,402,330 1,909,825 507,495 507,495 36.19%
38 Feb-19 4,833,571 1,493,489 - 3,340,082 3,340,082 69.10%
39 Mar-19 1,301,050 2,675,874 1,374,824 1,374,824 105.67%
40 Apr-19 2,936,070 2,512,317 - 423,753 423,753 14.43%
41 May-19 3,150,729 3,023,564 - 127,165 127,165 4.04%
42 Jun-19 1,220,468 2,462,616 1,242,148 1,242,148 101.78%
43 Jul-19 4,812,309 2,435,756 - 2,376,553 2,376,553 49.38%
44 Aug-19 2,540,493 3,061,169 520,676 520,676 20.50%
45 Sep-19 1,601,690 2,857,757 1,256,067 1,256,067 78.42%
46 Oct-19 4,697,189 2,984,830 - 1,712,358 1,712,358 36.45%
47 Nov-19 2,511,680 2,946,457 434,777 434,777 17.31%
48 Dec-19 4,072,774 2,936,853 - 1,135,921 1,135,921 27.89%
48
- 65,406 1,432,243 78.45%

Gráfi
25000000

20000000

15000000

10000000

5000000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
 Peso Peso Peso
0.50 0.40 0.10
Error Error %
Error Cuadrático DESV PROMEDIO Error
Absoluto Absoluto
(MSE) STAND PONDERADO (ME)
(MAD) (MAPE)

527,792,065,333 2,205,372.07 288,846 288,846 15.07%

39,454,919,426,252 1,617,810.04 - 6,793,119 6,793,119 80.77%
6,059,310,222,084 5,042,846.54 3,826,022 3,826,022 314.43%
2,868,506,470,020 4,164,436.32 - 1,377,323 1,377,323 24.85%
16,836,938,277,415 4,098,702.45 3,145,482 3,145,482 329.98%
868,185,809,632 2,814,996.48 1,176,160 1,176,160 71.77%
163,499,672,994 1,754,882.43 - 552,039 552,039 23.93%
23,365,949,995 1,904,317.32 424,184 424,184 28.66%
17,414,393,438 1,826,718.92 - 113,875 113,875 5.87%
1,239,675,679,294 1,793,042.57 997,234 997,234 125.31%
2,686,249,370,163 1,322,155.50 - 1,722,335 1,722,335 56.57%
2,930,689,317 2,034,628.20 161,800 161,800 8.64%
313,878,714,990 2,233,791.37 - 230,833 230,833 9.37%
4,945,522,895,156 2,285,892.90 - 2,398,608 2,398,608 51.20%
6,180,774,136,201 3,515,383.34 - 1,978,051 1,978,051 36.01%
13,578,662,602,709 4,866,980.15 4,337,717 4,337,717 819.58%
136,985,840,533 2,930,455.45 - 268,495 268,495 8.39%
221,391,652,823 2,360,523.81 - 242,836 242,836 9.33%
569,665,944,473 2,634,186.34 - 231,100 231,100 8.07%
3,370,317,588,654 2,793,882.26 1,740,526 1,740,526 165.24%
5,557,602,677 1,933,128.83 - 315,421 315,421 14.03%
413,408,084,155 1,832,146.37 419,383 419,383 29.69%
70,975,507,210 1,711,137.21 - 126,832 126,832 6.90%
1,404,673,596,031 1,708,944.61 1,061,040 1,061,040 163.76%
2,480,549,773,298 1,200,416.19 - 1,674,105 1,674,105 58.24%
29,425,541,757,055 1,880,219.58 - 5,331,110 5,331,110 73.93%
982,002,834,107 4,820,264.05 251,385 251,385 5.50%
160,164,141,739 5,456,423.76 171,308 171,308 3.24%
4,038,778,071,500 5,191,242.40 1,512,472 1,512,472 41.11%
10,953,954,779,228 4,410,319.28 3,209,074 3,209,074 267.15%
543,226,376,203 2,600,642.57 - 50,696 50,696 1.91%
1,498,261,821,350 2,174,044.47 887,628 887,628 69.00%
6,196,959,945 1,823,868.08 32,147 32,147 1.79%
257,551,484,561 1,675,560.84 273,231 273,231 19.48%
 11,156,148,314,958 1,546,494.95 - 3,287,076 3,287,076 68.01%
1,890,141,474,941 3,156,889.62 1,855,840 1,855,840 142.64%
179,566,516,757 2,724,186.36 - 211,883 211,883 7.22%
16,171,012,934 2,471,811.97 - 678,917 678,917 21.55%
1,542,931,818,399 2,879,897.37 1,659,429 1,659,429 135.97%
5,648,004,323,205 2,164,132.61 - 2,648,176 2,648,176 55.03%
271,103,212,328 3,209,414.47 668,922 668,922 26.33%
1,577,704,132,199 3,317,216.69 1,715,527 1,715,527 107.11%
2,932,171,067,551 2,298,272.80 - 2,398,916 2,398,916 51.07%
189,031,309,896 3,243,319.48 731,640 731,640 29.13%
1,290,316,214,814 3,294,884.31 - 777,889 777,889 19.10%
-
3,977,780,435,300 1,994,437 - 63,614 1,421,259 80.26%

Gráfi co Flores

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
 Alfa
0.25

Error Cuadrático DESV SE

ES(ERROR) MAD MSE
(MSE) STAND SIMPLE

3,456,741 0.00% - -
3,456,741 8.18% 307,856 94,775,023,592
3,533,705 399.31% 2,825,986 7,986,195,649,269
83,432,228,376 2,827,208 47.52% 910,683 829,342,710,300
46,146,461,742,024 2,599,538 69.09% 5,811,391 33,772,266,993,192
14,638,444,691,196 4,052,385 233.03% 2,835,561 8,040,405,592,711
1,897,019,302,569 3,343,495 39.67% 2,198,264 4,832,366,313,832
9,894,057,170,433 3,893,061 308.41% 2,939,841 8,642,664,159,703
1,383,352,067,485 3,158,101 92.70% 1,519,264 2,308,164,476,305
304,746,880,087 2,778,285 20.43% 471,364 222,183,714,654
179,931,896,933 2,660,444 79.74% 1,180,311 1,393,132,893,232
12,967,548,276 2,365,366 21.89% 424,772 180,431,530,747
994,474,698,090 2,259,173 183.88% 1,463,364 2,141,434,985,269
2,966,437,358,088 1,893,332 37.81% 1,151,158 1,325,164,996,297
26,179,095,906 2,181,122 16.46% 308,293 95,044,651,363
53,284,078,181 2,104,048 14.63% 360,576 130,015,283,530
5,753,321,305,872 2,194,193 53.16% 2,490,309 6,201,636,579,147
3,912,686,241,429 2,816,770 48.72% 2,676,665 7,164,534,230,584
18,815,789,216,956 3,485,936 558.64% 2,956,673 8,741,913,995,964
72,089,454,095 2,746,768 14.14% 452,183 204,469,053,113
58,969,347,327 2,859,813 9.85% 256,453 65,768,384,557
53,407,322,031 2,795,700 2.43% 69,587 4,842,296,850
3,029,430,192,330 2,813,097 167.06% 1,759,740 3,096,685,568,147
99,490,694,770 2,373,162 5.54% 124,611 15,527,972,525
175,882,483,346 2,342,009 65.78% 929,246 863,497,824,331
16,086,258,613 2,109,697 14.78% 271,728 73,836,357,269
1,125,805,594,929 2,041,765 215.13% 1,393,860 1,942,846,903,683
2,802,628,954,085 1,693,300 41.09% 1,181,222 1,395,284,341,176
28,420,736,884,603 1,988,605 72.42% 5,222,724 27,276,850,360,793
63,194,293,367 3,294,287 27.90% 1,274,593 1,624,586,668,137
29,346,559,209 3,612,935 31.64% 1,672,181 2,796,188,103,455
2,287,571,600,545 4,030,980 9.57% 352,210 124,051,545,310
10,298,152,847,874 3,942,928 228.24% 2,741,682 7,516,818,903,556
2,570,051,994 3,257,507 22.86% 606,169 367,440,651,260
787,883,572,951 3,105,965 141.44% 1,819,548 3,310,756,624,303
1,033,440,482 2,651,078 47.96% 859,357 738,494,190,063
74,655,156,735 2,436,239 73.73% 1,033,909 1,068,967,119,393
 10,804,869,959,231 2,177,761 54.95% 2,655,810 7,053,325,529,481
3,444,141,361,565 2,841,714 118.42% 1,540,664 2,373,645,568,816
44,894,612,896 2,456,548 16.33% 479,522 229,941,372,687
460,928,206,901 2,576,428 18.23% 574,301 329,821,150,394
2,753,705,430,966 2,720,003 122.87% 1,499,535 2,248,606,260,114
7,012,836,395,840 2,345,120 51.27% 2,467,189 6,087,021,678,921
447,456,152,374 2,961,917 16.59% 421,424 177,598,234,652
2,943,033,176,077 2,856,561 78.35% 1,254,871 1,574,701,898,043
5,754,797,486,313 2,542,843 45.86% 2,154,346 4,641,205,148,392
535,296,709,495 3,081,429 22.68% 569,750 324,614,757,446
605,111,667,700 2,938,992 27.84% 1,133,782 1,285,460,517,693
- -
4,250,413,142,012 2,061,653 79.79% 1,477,126 3,662,967,957,586

FT (SED)
SE SIMPLE
PROMEDIO PONDERADO
PM3
DT

38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
 Alfa Beta
0.25 0.35
Error %
Error Error Absoluto
ST GT FT (SED) Absoluto
(ME) (MAD)
(MAPE)

2,680,620 4,292.38
2,877,869.12 71,827.42 2,684,911.89 - 771,828.92 771,828.92 22.33%
3,153,421.48 143,131.15 2,949,696.53 - 814,899.80 814,899.80 21.65%
2,649,344.20 - 83,391.80 3,296,552.63 2,588,833.72 2,588,833.72 365.80%
2,403,595.72 - 140,216.64 2,565,952.40 649,426.70 649,426.70 33.89%
3,800,266.50 397,693.96 2,263,379.08 - 6,147,549.67 6,147,549.67 73.09%
3,452,676.46 136,844.56 4,197,960.45 2,981,135.96 2,981,135.96 244.99%
4,077,580.66 307,665.43 3,589,521.02 - 1,952,238.53 1,952,238.53 35.23%
3,527,239.67 7,363.19 4,385,246.09 3,432,025.66 3,432,025.66 360.05%
3,060,661.29 - 158,516.36 3,534,602.86 1,895,766.26 1,895,766.26 115.68%
2,753,339.02 - 210,598.43 2,902,144.93 595,223.67 595,223.67 25.80%
2,277,088.82 - 303,576.55 2,542,740.58 1,062,607.07 1,062,607.07 71.79%
1,965,282.72 - 306,456.89 1,973,512.26 32,918.20 32,918.20 1.70%
1,443,071.63 - 381,970.86 1,658,825.82 863,016.78 863,016.78 108.45%
1,556,948.16 - 208,424.27 1,061,100.77 - 1,983,389.59 1,983,389.59 65.15%
1,479,600.08 - 162,547.61 1,348,523.89 - 524,304.76 524,304.76 28.00%
1,603,945.56 - 62,135.03 1,317,052.47 - 1,147,572.34 1,147,572.34 46.56%
2,327,483.18 212,850.40 1,541,810.53 - 3,142,690.57 3,142,690.57 67.09%
3,278,608.80 471,246.73 2,540,333.57 - 2,953,100.89 2,953,100.89 53.76%
2,944,707.42 189,444.89 3,749,855.52 3,220,592.42 3,220,592.42 608.50%
3,150,351.79 195,114.71 3,134,152.31 - 64,797.93 64,797.93 2.03%
3,159,939.84 130,180.38 3,345,466.50 742,106.64 742,106.64 28.51%
3,183,911.81 93,007.43 3,290,120.22 424,833.64 424,833.64 14.83%
2,721,028.54 - 101,554.31 3,276,919.24 2,223,562.82 2,223,562.82 211.09%
2,526,743.24 - 134,010.16 2,619,474.22 370,923.94 370,923.94 16.50%
2,147,740.54 - 219,757.55 2,392,733.08 979,970.17 979,970.17 69.37%
1,905,479.45 - 227,633.79 1,927,982.99 90,014.17 90,014.17 4.90%
1,420,360.43 - 317,753.62 1,677,845.66 1,029,940.92 1,029,940.92 158.96%
1,545,585.51 - 162,711.07 1,102,606.81 - 1,771,914.80 1,771,914.80 61.64%
2,839,988.30 347,278.78 1,382,874.44 - 5,828,455.43 5,828,455.43 80.82%
3,532,670.13 468,169.85 3,187,267.07 - 1,381,612.23 1,381,612.23 30.24%
4,321,908.83 580,543.95 4,000,839.98 - 1,284,275.41 1,284,275.41 24.30%
4,596,532.18 473,471.74 4,902,452.78 1,223,682.39 1,223,682.39 33.26%
4,102,814.37 134,955.40 5,070,003.91 3,868,758.16 3,868,758.16 322.06%
3,841,161.89 - 3,857.36 4,237,769.77 1,586,431.52 1,586,431.52 59.84%
3,199,582.50 - 227,060.07 3,837,304.53 2,550,888.12 2,550,888.12 198.29%
2,677,322.05 - 330,380.20 2,972,522.43 1,180,801.52 1,180,801.52 65.90%
2,110,788.85 - 413,033.75 2,346,941.84 944,611.96 944,611.96 67.36%
2,481,709.11 - 138,649.85 1,697,755.10 - 3,135,816.05 3,135,816.05 64.88%
2,082,556.91 - 229,825.67 2,343,059.27 1,042,009.45 1,042,009.45 80.09%
2,123,565.89 - 135,033.54 1,852,731.23 - 1,083,338.61 1,083,338.61 36.90%
2,279,081.48 - 33,341.35 1,988,532.34 - 1,162,196.56 1,162,196.56 36.89%
1,989,422.13 - 123,052.65 2,245,740.14 1,025,272.01 1,025,272.01 84.01%
2,602,854.28 134,717.03 1,866,369.49 - 2,945,939.17 2,945,939.17 61.22%
2,688,301.69 117,472.66 2,737,571.31 197,078.48 197,078.48 7.76%
2,504,753.17 12,115.25 2,805,774.36 1,204,084.75 1,204,084.75 75.18%
3,061,948.49 202,893.27 2,516,868.42 - 2,180,320.28 2,180,320.28 46.42%
3,076,551.26 136,991.60 3,264,841.76 753,162.02 753,162.02 29.99%
3,428,350.53 212,174.28 3,213,542.85 - 859,230.70 859,230.70 21.10%
3,640,524.81 3,640,524.81 3,640,524.81
- 75,064 1,682,658 87.42%
 N
12

Error Cuadrático
ET Regresión Lineal YT DT/YT
(MSE)

595,719,883,481 - 771,828.92 14,840,341,822 14,840,341,822 0.00023293

664,061,683,197 - 814,899.80 16,161,776,148 16,161,776,148 0.00023293
6,702,060,053,854 2,588,833.72 3,040,482,392 3,040,482,392 0.00023277
421,755,044,444 649,426.70 8,229,146,090 8,229,146,090 0.00023289
37,792,366,900,518 - 6,147,549.67 36,105,622,102 36,105,622,102 0.00023295
8,887,171,597,206 2,981,135.96 5,225,759,411 5,225,759,411 0.00023285
3,811,235,280,288 - 1,952,238.53 23,790,044,288 23,790,044,288 0.00023294
11,778,800,147,236 3,432,025.66 4,094,269,343 4,094,269,343 0.00023282
3,593,929,695,298 1,895,766.26 7,037,197,700 7,037,197,700 0.00023288
354,291,212,772 595,223.67 9,904,874,058 9,904,874,058 0.00023291
1,129,133,780,081 1,062,607.07 6,355,983,006 6,355,983,006 0.00023287
1,083,607,732 32,918.20 8,332,456,814 8,332,456,814 0.00023290
744,797,959,801 863,016.78 3,418,599,147 3,418,599,147 0.00023279
3,933,834,267,828 - 1,983,389.59 13,070,804,308 13,070,804,308 0.00023292
274,895,477,305 - 524,304.76 8,041,581,568 8,041,581,568 0.00023289
1,316,922,272,590 - 1,147,572.34 10,581,798,348 10,581,798,348 0.00023291
9,876,504,020,379 - 3,142,690.57 20,110,361,270 20,110,361,270 0.00023294
8,720,804,864,502 - 2,953,100.89 23,582,614,413 23,582,614,413 0.00023294
10,372,215,533,874 3,220,592.42 2,274,481,443 2,274,481,443 0.00023270
4,198,772,143 - 64,797.93 13,733,805,545 13,733,805,545 0.00023293
550,722,267,252 742,106.64 11,177,302,527 11,177,302,527 0.00023291
180,483,620,771 424,833.64 12,301,592,760 12,301,592,760 0.00023292
4,944,231,628,154 2,223,562.82 4,524,091,548 4,524,091,548 0.00023283
137,584,570,019 370,923.94 9,654,323,347 9,654,323,347 0.00023291
960,341,534,606 979,970.17 6,066,802,457 6,066,802,457 0.00023287
8,102,549,971 90,014.17 7,891,949,801 7,891,949,801 0.00023289
1,060,778,303,351 1,029,940.92 2,783,736,984 2,783,736,984 0.00023275
3,139,682,044,452 - 1,771,914.80 12,341,233,069 12,341,233,069 0.00023292
33,970,892,696,424 - 5,828,455.43 30,956,482,292 30,956,482,292 0.00023295
1,908,852,344,741 - 1,381,612.23 19,614,068,022 19,614,068,022 0.00023294
1,649,363,320,222 - 1,284,275.41 22,688,428,796 22,688,428,796 0.00023294
1,497,398,595,226 1,223,682.39 15,793,378,162 15,793,378,162 0.00023293
14,967,289,667,110 3,868,758.16 5,158,889,476 5,158,889,476 0.00023285
2,516,764,969,013 1,586,431.52 11,383,244,242 11,383,244,242 0.00023292
6,507,030,219,225 2,550,888.12 5,524,474,664 5,524,474,664 0.00023286
1,394,292,223,570 1,180,801.52 7,693,435,961 7,693,435,961 0.00023289
892,291,754,234 944,611.96 6,022,019,896 6,022,019,896 0.00023287
 9,833,342,274,765 - 3,135,816.05 20,750,227,247 20,750,227,247 0.00023294
1,085,783,689,590 1,042,009.45 5,587,286,902 5,587,286,902 0.00023286
1,173,622,554,299 - 1,083,338.61 12,605,421,776 12,605,421,776 0.00023292
1,350,700,848,507 - 1,162,196.56 13,526,821,014 13,526,821,014 0.00023292
1,051,182,699,079 1,025,272.01 5,241,399,266 5,241,399,266 0.00023285
8,678,557,606,983 - 2,945,939.17 20,658,960,459 20,658,960,459 0.00023294
38,839,925,340 197,078.48 10,907,453,080 10,907,453,080 0.00023291
1,449,820,076,599 1,204,084.75 6,877,748,521 6,877,748,521 0.00023288
4,753,796,543,205 - 2,180,320.28 20,164,821,327 20,164,821,327 0.00023294
567,253,035,661 753,162.02 10,783,776,186 10,783,776,186 0.00023291
738,277,389,268 - 859,230.70 17,484,591,307 17,484,591,307 0.00023294
13,253,420,896,534
4,667,138,208,570
 m Alfa Beta Gamma
4 0.15 0.25 1.25

ST GT CT FT ET

0.00011643
0.00011646
0.00011641
0.00011645
0.00011647
0.00011645
0.00011641
0.00011644
0.00011645
0.00011646
0.00011643
2,680,620 2,148.85 0.000116450
4,455,726,964 1,113,263,198 0.000940639 312.35 3,456,428.5
9,582,269,586 2,116,583,054 0.000461973 648,585.54 3,116,010.8
10,855,919,246 1,905,849,705 0.000052386 1,361,917.28 654,198.4
13,316,158,013 2,044,446,971 0.000150793 1,486,128.92 430,396.8
23,888,520,714 4,176,425,903 0.000410995 1,789,100.03 6,621,828.7
25,422,619,358 3,515,844,089 0.000030718 3,268,131.32 2,051,306.8
31,738,513,290 4,215,856,549 0.000189156 3,368,731.20 2,173,028.4
31,789,212,824 3,174,567,295 0.000008373 4,186,378.18 3,233,157.8
31,830,223,429 2,391,178,123 0.000035246 4,071,504.66 2,432,668.1
32,059,575,178 1,850,721,529 0.000060832 3,985,318.76 1,678,397.5
30,730,710,001 1,055,824,853 0.000031099 3,948,050.14 2,467,916.6
29,518,236,599 488,750,289 0.000053065 3,701,556.53 1,760,962.5
25,632,843,352 - 604,785,595 - 0.000196352 28,225,750.89 27,429,941.8
22,262,378,028 - 1,296,205,527 0.000055450 11,562,283.79 8,517,793.4
23,183,796,459 - 741,799,538 0.000087881 1,098,340.80 774,487.8
21,527,359,126 - 970,458,986 0.000105412 3,384,098.72 919,473.9
19,183,057,022 - 1,313,919,766 0.000202501 8,448,787.29 3,764,286.2
42,014,274,810 4,722,364,623 0.000155760 548,896.97 4,944,537.5
40,145,847,328 3,074,666,596 - 0.000030810 8,840,512.62 8,311,249.5
94,045,037,946 15,780,797,602 0.000040426 361,889.88 2,837,060.4
104,431,279,488 14,432,158,587 0.000022350 3,870,944.12 1,267,584.3
108,099,117,709 11,741,078,495 0.000017925 7,230,751.53 4,365,465.0
106,944,790,746 8,517,227,131 0.000004537 3,726,937.10 2,673,580.7
104,498,724,103 5,776,403,687 0.000013631 6,127,008.87 3,878,458.6
92,654,599,391 1,371,271,587 0.000068147 - 21,652,714.11 23,065,477.0
84,893,911,036 - 911,718,398 0.000013200 5,213,778.43 3,375,809.6
72,490,746,560 - 3,784,579,918 - 0.000010798 7,380,410.45 6,732,505.7
62,490,660,785 - 5,338,456,382 0.000031146 7,242,437.29 4,367,915.7
53,921,070,361 - 6,146,239,892 0.000116548 11,573,384.68 4,362,054.8
45,008,524,663 - 6,837,816,344 0.000087949 7,441,413.55 2,872,534.2
6,713,922,217 - 14,702,012,869 0.000991687 - 1,176,024.18 6,461,139.6
6,860,279,727 - 10,989,920,274 0.000660196 - 322,923.23 4,001,693.6
4,551,998,850 - 8,819,510,425 0.000324280 - 92,295.85 1,293,541.6
18,560,134,796 - 3,112,598,832 0.000174083 - 76,493.12 2,727,831.4
55,660,201,836 6,940,567,636 0.000027756 70,087.21 1,216,329.2
72,927,952,166 9,522,363,309 0.000027303 853,284.57 938,436.3
73,169,448,768 7,202,146,632 0.000006920 5,618,780.62 4,216,450.7
123,242,327,590 17,919,829,680 0.000045725 1,060,914.20 3,772,656.9
101,914,295,898 8,107,864,337 0.000018657 - 1,524,264.38 2,825,314.2
107,658,990,749 7,517,071,965 0.000026303 3,426,759.72 490,689.9
101,954,714,843 4,211,734,997 0.000009492 13,423,540.43 10,272,811.5
92,323,026,305 750,879,114 - 0.000005463 9,337,259.13 8,116,791.0
79,840,717,116 - 2,557,417,962 - 0.000172579 92,300,156.55 87,487,847.9
66,268,017,469 - 5,311,238,383 - 0.000117128 51,022,136.70 48,481,643.9
52,554,144,338 - 7,411,897,070 - 0.000042974 19,767,079.88 18,165,390.3
42,418,282,057 - 8,092,888,373 0.000094898 7,858,494.11 3,161,305.4
42,750,456,918 - 5,986,622,564 0.000066501 952,724.40 1,558,955.3
53,624,825,843 - 1,771,374,692 0.000088111 1,003,756.29 3,069,017.3
44,075,433,479 - 3,715,879,110 - 0.000001730 358,826.96 358,827.0
 Chart T
9000000

8000000

7000000

6000000

5000000

4000000

3000000

2000000

1000000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2

Column A
 Chart Title

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

Column A Column C
48
4
 Claveles

Error Error %
Error
No. Mes DT PM3 Absoluto Absoluto
(ME)
(MAD) (MAPE)
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1 Jan-16 768,013
2 Feb-16 6,867,235
3 Mar-16 1,967,012
4 Apr-16 5,413,786 3,200,753 - 2,213,033 2,213,033 40.88%
5 May-16 2,118,358 4,749,345 2,630,987 2,630,987 124.20%
6 Jun-16 5,996,164 3,166,385 - 2,829,778 2,829,778 47.19%
7 Jul-16 2,422,578 4,509,436 2,086,858 2,086,858 86.14%
8 Aug-16 2,760,333 3,512,366 752,034 752,034 27.24%
9 Sep-16 4,366,821 3,726,358 - 640,463 640,463 14.67%
10 Oct-16 3,296,704 3,183,244 - 113,460 113,460 3.44%
11 Nov-16 2,620,212 3,474,619 854,407 854,407 32.61%
12 Dec-16 4,222,023 3,427,912 - 794,110 794,110 18.81%
13 Jan-17 10,181,295 3,379,646 - 6,801,649 6,801,649 66.81%
14 Feb-17 3,078,513 5,674,510 2,595,996 2,595,996 84.33%
15 Mar-17 6,342,383 5,827,277 - 515,106 515,106 8.12%
16 Apr-17 10,933,076 6,534,064 - 4,399,012 4,399,012 40.24%
17 May-17 7,454,259 6,784,658 - 669,602 669,602 8.98%
18 Jun-17 6,529,409 8,243,240 1,713,831 1,713,831 26.25%
19 Jul-17 2,505,578 8,305,581 5,800,003 5,800,003 231.48%
20 Aug-17 3,596,739 5,496,415 1,899,676 1,899,676 52.82%
21 Sep-17 3,889,198 4,210,575 321,378 321,378 8.26%
22 Oct-17 12,981,543 3,330,505 - 9,651,037 9,651,037 74.34%
23 Nov-17 11,802,849 6,822,493 - 4,980,355 4,980,355 42.20%
24 Dec-17 3,488,952 9,557,863 6,068,911 6,068,911 173.95%
25 Jan-18 4,788,662 9,424,448 4,635,785 4,635,785 96.81%
26 Feb-18 3,492,610 6,693,487 3,200,877 3,200,877 91.65%
27 Mar-18 7,977,676 3,923,408 - 4,054,268 4,054,268 50.82%
28 Apr-18 9,172,215 5,419,649 - 3,752,566 3,752,566 40.91%
29 May-18 4,767,063 6,880,834 2,113,771 2,113,771 44.34%
30 Jun-18 4,980,557 7,305,651 2,325,095 2,325,095 46.68%
31 Jul-18 6,412,484 6,306,612 - 105,872 105,872 1.65%
32 Aug-18 8,361,768 5,386,701 - 2,975,067 2,975,067 35.58%
33 Sep-18 8,108,082 6,584,936 - 1,523,146 1,523,146 18.79%
34 Oct-18 7,561,714 7,627,445 65,731 65,731 0.87%
35 Nov-18 8,698,722 8,010,521 - 688,201 688,201 7.91%
36 Dec-18 7,335,206 8,122,840 787,634 787,634 10.74%
37 Jan-19 2,189,002 7,865,214 5,676,212 5,676,212 259.31%
38 Feb-19 4,677,170 6,074,310 1,397,140 1,397,140 29.87%
39 Mar-19 12,210,171 4,733,792 - 7,476,378 7,476,378 61.23%
40 Apr-19 8,453,997 6,358,781 - 2,095,216 2,095,216 24.78%
41 May-19 4,964,594 8,447,113 3,482,519 3,482,519 70.15%
42 Jun-19 9,334,334 8,542,921 - 791,414 791,414 8.48%
43 Jul-19 9,019,581 7,584,308 - 1,435,273 1,435,273 15.91%
44 Aug-19 5,625,093 7,772,836 2,147,743 2,147,743 38.18%
45 Sep-19 6,228,363 7,993,003 1,764,640 1,764,640 28.33%
46 Oct-19 6,922,254 6,957,679 35,425 35,425 0.51%
47 Nov-19 10,650,373 6,258,570 - 4,391,803 4,391,803 41.24%
48 Dec-19 6,224,979 7,933,663 1,708,684 1,708,684 27.45%
48
- 196,255 2,599,159 50.34%

Gráfi
45000000

40000000

35000000

30000000

25000000

20000000

15000000

10000000

5000000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
5000000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
 Peso Peso Peso
0.50 0.40 0.10
Error Error %
Error Cuadrático DESV PROMEDIO Error
Absoluto Absoluto
(MSE) STAND PONDERADO (ME)
(MAD) (MAPE)

4,897,514,408,585 3,807,201.49 - 1,606,585 1,606,585 29.68%

6,922,092,429,722 4,180,421.57 2,062,064 2,062,064 97.34%
8,007,644,399,338 3,421,394.57 - 2,574,769 2,574,769 42.94%
4,354,974,617,906 4,386,803.45 1,964,225 1,964,225 81.08%
565,554,563,075 3,821,590.30 1,061,257 1,061,257 38.45%
410,192,726,750 2,948,814.07 - 1,418,007 1,418,007 32.47%
12,873,101,319 3,529,801.52 233,098 233,098 7.07%
730,011,852,608 3,671,113.61 1,050,902 1,050,902 40.11%
630,611,285,651 3,065,469.58 - 1,156,553 1,156,553 27.39%
46,262,425,148,988 3,488,766.46 - 6,692,528 6,692,528 65.73%
6,739,196,926,507 7,041,477.65 3,962,964 3,962,964 128.73%
265,334,460,654 6,033,976.92 - 308,406 308,406 4.86%
19,351,309,218,754 5,420,726.48 - 5,512,350 5,512,350 50.42%
448,366,498,107 8,311,342.71 857,083 857,083 11.50%
2,937,215,865,617 8,734,598.46 2,205,190 2,205,190 33.77%
33,640,037,997,216 7,339,715.77 4,834,138 4,834,138 192.94%
3,608,768,899,117 4,609,978.55 1,013,239 1,013,239 28.17%
103,283,548,218 3,453,541.87 - 435,656 435,656 11.20%
93,142,522,906,595 3,633,852.54 - 9,347,690 9,347,690 72.01%
24,803,940,135,241 8,406,124.39 - 3,396,724 3,396,724 28.78%
36,831,686,776,636 11,482,961.18 7,994,010 7,994,010 229.12%
21,490,506,841,094 7,763,769.53 2,975,107 2,975,107 62.13%
10,245,614,373,592 4,970,196.58 1,477,586 1,477,586 42.31%
16,437,087,173,302 4,010,665.20 - 3,967,011 3,967,011 49.73%
14,081,749,691,981 5,864,748.26 - 3,307,467 3,307,467 36.06%
4,468,026,241,345 8,126,438.95 3,359,376 3,359,376 70.47%
5,406,065,421,292 6,850,185.24 1,869,629 1,869,629 37.54%
11,208,859,518 5,314,325.12 - 1,098,158 1,098,158 17.13%
8,851,022,659,110 5,675,170.77 - 2,686,597 2,686,597 32.13%
2,319,974,867,221 7,243,933.08 - 864,149 864,149 10.66%
4,320,569,952 8,039,996.77 478,283 478,283 6.33%
473,620,757,836 7,860,266.58 - 838,456 838,456 9.64%
620,367,317,523 8,184,854.92 849,649 849,649 11.58%
32,219,383,587,459 7,903,263.09 5,714,261 5,714,261 261.04%
 1,951,999,965,258 4,898,455.33 221,285 221,285 4.73%
55,896,235,179,851 3,947,706.25 - 8,262,465 8,262,465 67.67%
4,389,930,337,968 8,194,853.62 - 259,143 259,143 3.07%
12,127,937,239,537 9,578,783.83 4,614,190 4,614,190 92.94%
626,335,791,309 7,084,912.77 - 2,249,422 2,249,422 24.10%
2,060,007,430,288 7,498,404.39 - 1,521,177 1,521,177 16.87%
4,612,799,485,780 8,739,983.60 3,114,890 3,114,890 55.37%
3,113,953,177,726 7,353,812.56 1,125,449 1,125,449 18.07%
1,254,933,894 6,266,177.12 - 656,077 656,077 9.48%
19,287,931,249,388 6,514,981.75 - 4,135,391 4,135,391 38.83%
2,919,601,497,160 8,716,924.53 2,491,945 2,491,945 40.03%
-
11,517,388,720,355 3,393,728 - 150,332 2,618,325 50.48%

Gráfi co Flores

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
 Alfa
0.25

Error Cuadrático DESV SE

ES(ERROR) MAD MSE
(MSE) STAND SIMPLE

768,013 0.00% - -
768,013 88.82% 6,099,222 37,200,510,112,035
2,292,819 16.56% 325,806 106,149,817,987
2,581,114,918,286 2,211,367 59.15% 3,202,419 10,255,489,589,698
4,252,107,791,193 3,011,972 42.18% 893,614 798,546,404,362
6,629,435,283,092 2,788,568 53.49% 3,207,595 10,288,667,309,251
3,858,180,677,716 3,590,467 48.21% 1,167,889 1,363,964,394,706
1,126,267,379,063 3,298,495 19.50% 538,162 289,618,381,840
2,010,743,955,672 3,163,954 27.55% 1,202,867 1,446,888,378,026
54,334,566,548 3,464,671 5.10% 167,967 28,213,015,305
1,104,394,340,744 3,422,679 30.63% 802,467 643,953,779,318
1,337,614,983,434 3,222,062 23.68% 999,960 999,920,463,017
44,789,935,712,013 3,472,052 65.90% 6,709,242 45,013,932,912,123
15,705,085,159,243 5,149,363 67.27% 2,070,850 4,288,418,006,055
95,114,453,011 4,631,651 26.97% 1,710,733 2,926,605,955,981
30,385,998,703,625 5,059,334 53.72% 5,873,742 34,500,849,059,300
734,591,870,040 6,527,769 12.43% 926,490 858,383,672,240
4,862,861,342,473 6,759,392 3.52% 229,983 52,892,207,254
23,368,886,372,587 6,701,896 167.48% 4,196,318 17,609,084,339,017
1,026,653,466,872 5,652,817 57.17% 2,056,077 4,227,453,358,605
189,796,173,553 5,138,797 32.13% 1,249,599 1,561,498,743,829
87,379,308,816,171 4,826,397 62.82% 8,155,145 66,506,391,558,786
11,537,736,234,885 6,865,184 41.83% 4,937,665 24,380,535,462,971
63,904,189,725,071 8,099,600 132.15% 4,610,648 21,258,078,903,974
8,851,263,869,198 6,946,938 45.07% 2,158,276 4,658,154,106,817
2,183,261,038,570 6,407,369 83.46% 2,914,759 8,495,817,668,064
15,737,173,109,041 5,678,679 28.82% 2,298,996 5,285,384,888,096
10,939,337,478,096 6,253,428 31.82% 2,918,787 8,519,316,142,402
11,285,405,694,342 6,983,125 46.49% 2,216,062 4,910,930,601,691
3,495,510,970,066 6,429,110 29.08% 1,448,553 2,098,305,673,336
1,205,951,994,644 6,066,971 5.39% 345,512 119,378,669,926
7,217,804,495,734 6,153,349 26.41% 2,208,419 4,877,112,413,454
746,754,118,323 6,705,454 17.30% 1,402,628 1,967,366,353,152
228,754,768,399 7,056,111 6.69% 505,602 255,633,844,357
703,008,233,638 7,182,512 17.43% 1,516,211 2,298,894,794,020
721,904,123,566 7,561,564 3.09% 226,359 51,238,370,253
32,652,782,394,600 7,504,975 242.85% 5,315,973 28,259,568,230,392
 48,967,205,501 6,175,981 32.05% 1,498,811 2,246,435,884,361
68,268,322,066,720 5,801,279 52.49% 6,408,892 41,073,900,493,394
67,155,262,893 7,403,502 12.43% 1,050,495 1,103,540,311,635
21,290,749,616,757 7,666,125 54.42% 2,701,532 7,298,273,474,987
5,059,897,410,801 6,990,743 25.11% 2,343,592 5,492,422,391,013
2,313,978,171,327 7,576,641 16.00% 1,442,940 2,082,077,136,045
9,702,540,401,918 7,937,376 41.11% 2,312,282 5,346,648,687,654
1,266,636,139,793 7,359,305 18.16% 1,130,942 1,279,029,432,640
430,437,121,275 7,076,570 2.23% 154,315 23,813,256,085
17,101,461,191,731 7,037,991 33.92% 3,612,382 13,049,305,684,977
6,209,790,724,218 7,941,086 27.57% 1,716,107 2,945,023,184,308
- -
11,881,404,433,921 3,446,941 42.94% 2,327,952 8,956,376,835,305

FT (SED)
SE SIMPLE
PROMEDIO PONDERADO
PM3
DT

38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
 Alfa Beta
0.25 0.35
Error %
Error Error Absoluto
ST GT FT (SED) Absoluto
(ME) (MAD)
(MAPE)

3,869,640 91,851.17
3,163,121.71 - 187,578.17 3,961,491.25 3,193,478.16 3,193,478.16 415.81%
3,948,466.46 152,944.85 2,975,543.55 - 3,891,691.64 3,891,691.64 56.67%
3,567,811.53 - 33,815.07 4,101,411.31 2,134,399.10 2,134,399.10 108.51%
4,003,943.94 130,666.55 3,533,996.46 - 1,879,789.88 1,879,789.88 34.72%
3,630,547.26 - 45,755.58 4,134,610.48 2,016,252.87 2,016,252.87 95.18%
4,187,634.65 165,239.46 3,584,791.68 - 2,411,371.86 2,411,371.86 40.22%
3,870,300.14 - 3,661.43 4,352,874.11 1,930,295.87 1,930,295.87 79.68%
3,590,062.24 - 100,463.19 3,866,638.71 1,106,305.86 1,106,305.86 40.08%
3,708,904.56 - 23,706.26 3,489,599.05 - 877,222.06 877,222.06 20.09%
3,588,074.66 - 57,699.54 3,685,198.30 388,494.55 388,494.55 11.78%
3,302,834.33 - 137,338.82 3,530,375.13 910,163.20 910,163.20 34.74%
3,429,627.29 - 44,892.69 3,165,495.51 - 1,056,527.13 1,056,527.13 25.02%
5,083,874.65 549,806.33 3,384,734.60 - 6,796,560.21 6,796,560.21 66.76%
4,994,889.10 326,229.17 5,633,680.98 2,555,167.51 2,555,167.51 83.00%
5,576,434.51 415,589.85 5,321,118.27 - 1,021,264.96 1,021,264.96 16.10%
7,227,287.31 847,931.88 5,992,024.36 - 4,941,051.78 4,941,051.78 45.19%
7,919,979.23 793,597.90 8,075,219.19 620,959.83 620,959.83 8.33%
8,167,535.05 602,483.17 8,713,577.13 2,184,168.31 2,184,168.31 33.45%
7,203,908.21 54,344.67 8,770,018.22 6,264,440.06 6,264,440.06 250.02%
6,342,874.52 - 266,037.76 7,258,252.87 3,661,513.43 3,661,513.43 101.80%
5,529,927.04 - 457,456.16 6,076,836.76 2,187,638.86 2,187,638.86 56.25%
7,049,738.81 234,587.61 5,072,470.88 - 7,909,071.69 7,909,071.69 60.93%
8,413,957.00 629,958.32 7,284,326.42 - 4,518,522.31 4,518,522.31 38.28%
7,655,174.38 143,898.99 9,043,915.31 5,554,963.74 5,554,963.74 159.22%
7,046,470.56 - 119,511.99 7,799,073.36 3,010,411.20 3,010,411.20 62.87%
6,068,371.52 - 420,017.46 6,926,958.57 3,434,348.21 3,434,348.21 98.33%
6,230,684.49 - 216,201.81 5,648,354.06 - 2,329,321.75 2,329,321.75 29.20%
6,803,915.81 60,099.79 6,014,482.68 - 3,157,732.50 3,157,732.50 34.43%
6,339,777.49 - 123,383.55 6,864,015.60 2,096,952.43 2,096,952.43 43.99%
5,907,434.62 - 231,519.31 6,216,393.94 1,235,837.26 1,235,837.26 24.81%
5,860,057.37 - 167,069.59 5,675,915.31 - 736,568.27 736,568.27 11.49%
6,360,182.83 66,448.68 5,692,987.79 - 2,668,780.18 2,668,780.18 31.92%
6,846,994.24 213,575.63 6,426,631.51 - 1,681,450.94 1,681,450.94 20.74%
7,185,855.81 257,425.71 7,060,569.88 - 501,143.74 501,143.74 6.63%
7,757,141.75 367,276.79 7,443,281.52 - 1,255,440.92 1,255,440.92 14.43%
7,927,115.29 298,220.65 8,124,418.55 789,213.04 789,213.04 10.76%
6,716,252.40 - 229,958.59 8,225,335.94 6,036,334.16 6,036,334.16 275.76%
6,034,012.85 - 388,256.92 6,486,293.81 1,809,123.82 1,809,123.82 38.68%
7,286,859.67 186,129.39 5,645,755.93 - 6,564,414.97 6,564,414.97 53.76%
7,718,241.03 271,967.58 7,472,989.06 - 981,007.89 981,007.89 11.60%
7,233,804.91 7,226.28 7,990,208.61 3,025,614.80 3,025,614.80 60.94%
7,764,356.98 190,390.31 7,241,031.19 - 2,093,303.15 2,093,303.15 22.43%
8,220,955.71 283,563.25 7,954,747.29 - 1,064,833.68 1,064,833.68 11.81%
7,784,662.59 31,613.53 8,504,518.96 2,879,425.47 2,879,425.47 51.19%
7,419,297.90 - 107,328.85 7,816,276.12 1,587,912.86 1,587,912.86 25.49%
7,214,540.34 - 141,428.90 7,311,969.05 389,714.86 389,714.86 5.63%
7,967,426.84 171,581.49 7,073,111.44 - 3,577,261.61 3,577,261.61 33.59%
7,660,501.09 4,103.96 8,139,008.33 1,914,028.97 1,914,028.97 30.75%
7,664,605.04 7,664,605.04 7,664,605.04
- 9,630 2,569,154 51.38%
 N
12

Error Cuadrático
ET Regresión Lineal YT DT/YT
(MSE)

10,198,302,730,206 3,193,478.16 70,546,773,601 70,546,773,601 0.00001089

15,145,263,814,461 - 3,891,691.64 630,767,479,909 630,767,479,909 0.00001089
4,555,659,534,199 2,134,399.10 180,676,248,926 180,676,248,926 0.00001089
3,533,610,004,838 - 1,879,789.88 497,266,498,631 497,266,498,631 0.00001089
4,065,275,641,310 2,016,252.87 194,577,502,016 194,577,502,016 0.00001089
5,814,714,233,872 - 2,411,371.86 550,758,527,281 550,758,527,281 0.00001089
3,726,042,134,677 1,930,295.87 222,520,523,756 222,520,523,756 0.00001089
1,223,912,663,606 1,106,305.86 253,543,680,684 253,543,680,684 0.00001089
769,518,542,053 - 877,222.06 401,101,512,872 401,101,512,872 0.00001089
150,928,012,262 388,494.55 302,809,978,132 302,809,978,132 0.00001089
828,397,054,955 910,163.20 240,673,409,782 240,673,409,782 0.00001089
1,116,249,567,693 - 1,056,527.13 387,801,603,289 387,801,603,289 0.00001089
46,193,230,747,544 - 6,796,560.21 935,167,745,797 935,167,745,797 0.00001089
6,528,881,020,438 2,555,167.51 282,768,944,047 282,768,944,047 0.00001089
1,042,982,127,932 - 1,021,264.96 582,559,212,295 582,559,212,295 0.00001089
24,413,992,644,050 - 4,941,051.78 1,004,219,742,625 1,004,219,742,625 0.00001089
385,591,112,406 620,959.83 684,686,339,109 684,686,339,109 0.00001089
4,770,591,209,937 2,184,168.31 599,737,731,792 599,737,731,792 0.00001089
39,243,209,265,505 6,264,440.06 230,144,164,160 230,144,164,160 0.00001089
13,406,680,561,581 3,661,513.43 330,368,608,676 330,368,608,676 0.00001089
4,785,763,781,634 2,187,638.86 357,231,260,460 357,231,260,460 0.00001089
62,553,414,948,189 - 7,909,071.69 1,192,373,788,240 1,192,373,788,240 0.00001089
20,417,043,864,848 - 4,518,522.31 1,084,109,375,670 1,084,109,375,670 0.00001089
30,857,622,197,004 5,554,963.74 320,468,165,280 320,468,165,280 0.00001089
9,062,575,604,208 3,010,411.20 439,848,108,493 439,848,108,493 0.00001089
11,794,747,627,285 3,434,348.21 320,804,229,679 320,804,229,679 0.00001089
5,425,739,794,960 - 2,329,321.75 732,762,753,655 732,762,753,655 0.00001089
9,971,274,567,799 - 3,157,732.50 842,482,598,085 842,482,598,085 0.00001089
4,397,209,513,869 2,096,952.43 437,864,215,079 437,864,215,079 0.00001089
1,527,293,742,924 1,235,837.26 457,473,844,509 457,473,844,509 0.00001089
542,532,814,114 - 736,568.27 588,998,010,944 588,998,010,944 0.00001089
7,122,387,670,944 - 2,668,780.18 768,042,069,924 768,042,069,924 0.00001089
2,827,277,247,254 - 1,681,450.94 744,740,756,666 744,740,756,666 0.00001089
251,145,052,742 - 501,143.74 694,556,139,122 694,556,139,122 0.00001089
1,576,131,913,245 - 1,255,440.92 798,991,734,111 798,991,734,111 0.00001089
622,857,226,578 789,213.04 673,751,102,824 673,751,102,824 0.00001089
36,437,330,098,526 6,036,334.16 201,066,251,504 201,066,251,504 0.00001089
 3,272,929,006,320 1,809,123.82 429,607,421,352 429,607,421,352 0.00001089
43,091,543,922,741 - 6,564,414.97 1,121,522,395,301 1,121,522,395,301 0.00001089
962,376,474,836 - 981,007.89 776,513,409,841 776,513,409,841 0.00001089
9,154,344,948,158 3,025,614.80 456,007,636,453 456,007,636,453 0.00001089
4,381,918,092,003 - 2,093,303.15 857,373,432,763 857,373,432,763 0.00001089
1,133,870,758,049 - 1,064,833.68 828,462,965,390 828,462,965,390 0.00001089
8,291,091,048,238 2,879,425.47 516,675,307,534 516,675,307,534 0.00001089
2,521,467,252,300 1,587,912.86 572,086,343,782 572,086,343,782 0.00001089
151,877,674,995 389,714.86 635,821,040,177 635,821,040,177 0.00001089
12,796,800,608,506 - 3,577,261.61 978,253,131,894 978,253,131,894 0.00001089
3,663,506,916,617 1,914,028.97 571,775,528,412 571,775,528,412 0.00001089
58,746,170,472,136
10,151,286,242,523
 m Alfa Beta Gamma
4 0.15 0.25 1.25

ST GT CT FT ET

0.00000544
0.00000544
0.00000544
0.00000544
0.00000544
0.00000544
0.00000544
0.00000544
0.00000544
0.00000544
0.00000544
3,869,640 90,694.06 0.000005444
21,166,861,690 5,290,816,033 0.000043994 21.56 767,991.5
211,719,984,388 51,606,392,699 0.000039183 144,023.29 6,723,211.9
278,029,894,772 55,282,272,120 0.000007483 1,433,420.35 533,591.9
432,494,998,423 80,077,980,003 0.000014286 1,814,403.75 3,599,382.6
494,059,866,770 75,449,702,089 0.000003999 2,790,200.79 671,843.2
649,310,644,311 95,399,970,952 0.000010182 3,100,154.90 2,896,008.6
699,760,160,872 84,162,357,354 0.000002967 4,053,828.88 1,631,250.6
742,397,109,717 73,781,005,227 0.000003287 4,267,294.12 1,506,961.3
814,081,922,847 73,256,957,203 0.000005344 4,442,892.38 76,071.3
845,080,608,440 62,692,389,300 0.000003515 4,830,269.10 1,533,565.3
843,808,619,423 46,701,294,721 0.000002521 4,941,494.19 2,321,282.3
873,274,029,968 42,392,323,677 0.000004682 4,847,516.16 625,493.5
813,030,228,723 16,733,292,446 0.000004655 40,283,669.08 30,102,374.3
717,083,996,994 - 11,436,588,597 - 0.000004429 32,512,990.75 29,434,477.3
726,942,078,126 - 6,112,921,165 0.000009035 5,280,112.79 1,062,270.4
727,499,199,832 - 4,445,410,447 0.000015214 10,297,818.01 635,258.1
894,222,210,391 38,346,694,804 0.000009420 2,891,266.04 4,562,993.3
888,869,897,577 27,421,942,900 0.000006637 9,495,825.06 2,966,416.2
905,535,678,806 24,732,902,482 0.000002717 2,718,309.33 212,731.2
954,873,517,191 30,884,136,458 0.000003887 3,057,597.69 539,141.8
947,054,293,014 21,208,296,299 0.000003797 5,268,133.70 1,378,935.8
1,376,933,186,864 123,375,945,687 0.000010906 3,403,858.66 9,577,683.9
1,977,634,345,025 242,707,248,805 0.000006830 3,781,742.21 8,021,106.5
1,999,056,032,033 187,385,858,356 0.000001011 10,396,748.54 6,907,797.0
2,012,787,364,719 143,972,226,938 0.000001810 10,177,576.57 5,388,914.4
1,714,971,964,301 33,525,320,099 0.000003653 - 9,553,334.70 13,045,945.1
1,618,664,974,002 1,067,242,500 0.000003902 15,798,139.65 7,820,463.9
1,467,205,225,345 - 37,064,505,289 0.000004011 24,642,373.65 15,470,158.5
1,291,525,357,580 - 71,718,345,908 0.000002259 13,472,440.91 8,705,377.7
1,149,406,722,360 - 89,318,418,236 0.000003757 8,095,331.97 3,114,775.3
1,255,090,475,778 - 40,567,875,323 0.000005707 2,880,297.80 3,532,185.8
1,355,051,169,290 - 5,435,733,114 0.000006742 4,720,485.21 3,641,282.8
1,467,463,276,404 24,026,226,943 0.000005957 5,124,787.49 2,983,295.0
1,371,769,335,746 - 5,903,814,957 0.000004164 16,266,148.85 8,704,435.2
1,352,025,158,078 - 9,363,905,635 0.000006335 9,328,924.55 630,202.1
2,229,571,992,022 212,363,779,260 0.000003860 1,357,429.90 5,977,775.6
2,257,035,835,101 166,138,795,215 0.000000760 4,420,355.93 2,231,354.2
2,251,750,561,624 123,282,778,042 0.000001683 8,851,971.52 4,174,801.5
2,488,174,711,556 151,568,121,014 0.000005159 9,267,081.51 2,943,089.4
2,559,945,120,005 131,618,692,873 0.000003125 10,587,732.07 2,133,735.1
2,617,527,095,270 113,109,513,471 0.000001806 6,079,439.49 1,114,845.7
2,693,688,979,926 103,872,606,267 0.000003392 10,259,823.41 925,489.1
2,614,984,615,675 58,228,363,638 0.000002885 15,966,289.60 6,946,708.6
2,397,384,373,870 - 10,728,787,723 0.000001247 18,022,378.89 12,397,285.4
2,185,483,951,203 - 61,021,696,459 0.000002073 14,217,882.88 7,989,519.6
Esta foto de Autor desconocido está bajo licencia CC
2,055,154,809,916 - 78,348,557,666 0.000003169 8,846,219.97 1,923,965.8
1,932,472,722,254 - 89,431,940,165 0.000005305 12,522,665.71 1,872,292.7
1,808,506,702,990 - 98,065,459,940 0.000003338 7,113,587.65 888,608.3
1,453,875,056,593 - 162,207,006,554 - 0.000000190 1,299,550.20 1,299,550.2
 Chart Title
14000000

12000000

10000000

8000000

6000000

4000000

2000000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

Column A Column C
conocido está bajo licencia CC BY-NC-ND
 Chart Title

16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

Column A Column C
 Astromelias

Error Error %
Error
No. Mes DT PM3 Absoluto Absoluto
(ME)
(MAD) (MAPE)
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1 Jan-16 1,731,180
2 Feb-16 3,335,180
3 Mar-16 2,979,660
4 Apr-16 3,169,150 2,682,007 - 487,143 487,143 15.37%
5 May-16 2,234,865 3,161,330 926,465 926,465 41.46%
6 Jun-16 2,677,391 2,794,558 117,167 117,167 4.38%
7 Jul-16 2,459,645 2,693,802 234,157 234,157 9.52%
8 Aug-16 2,545,513 2,457,301 - 88,213 88,213 3.47%
9 Sep-16 2,684,202 2,560,850 - 123,352 123,352 4.60%
10 Oct-16 3,268,110 2,563,120 - 704,990 704,990 21.57%
11 Nov-16 3,504,757 2,832,608 - 672,149 672,149 19.18%
12 Dec-16 2,434,333 3,152,356 718,023 718,023 29.50%
13 Jan-17 1,836,318 3,069,067 1,232,749 1,232,749 67.13%
14 Feb-17 2,912,993 2,591,803 - 321,191 321,191 11.03%
15 Mar-17 2,801,242 2,394,548 - 406,694 406,694 14.52%
16 Apr-17 2,043,425 2,516,851 473,426 473,426 23.17%
17 May-17 2,772,093 2,585,887 - 186,206 186,206 6.72%
18 Jun-17 3,661,156 2,538,920 - 1,122,236 1,122,236 30.65%
19 Jul-17 2,739,437 2,825,558 86,122 86,122 3.14%
20 Aug-17 2,843,577 3,057,562 213,985 213,985 7.53%
21 Sep-17 2,202,393 3,081,390 878,997 878,997 39.91%
22 Oct-17 2,494,305 2,595,136 100,831 100,831 4.04%
23 Nov-17 2,821,589 2,513,425 - 308,164 308,164 10.92%
24 Dec-17 2,750,036 2,506,096 - 243,940 243,940 8.87%
25 Jan-18 2,273,706 2,688,643 414,937 414,937 18.25%
26 Feb-18 2,404,618 2,615,110 210,493 210,493 8.75%
27 Mar-18 2,361,707 2,476,120 114,413 114,413 4.84%
28 Apr-18 2,604,804 2,346,677 - 258,128 258,128 9.91%
29 May-18 3,536,669 2,457,043 - 1,079,626 1,079,626 30.53%
30 Jun-18 3,123,683 2,834,394 - 289,289 289,289 9.26%
31 Jul-18 3,843,806 3,088,386 - 755,421 755,421 19.65%
32 Aug-18 3,059,789 3,501,386 441,598 441,598 14.43%
33 Sep-18 2,492,790 3,342,426 849,636 849,636 34.08%
34 Oct-18 3,517,125 3,132,128 - 384,997 384,997 10.95%
35 Nov-18 2,921,512 3,023,235 101,723 101,723 3.48%
36 Dec-18 3,437,105 2,977,142 - 459,963 459,963 13.38%
37 Jan-19 979,663 3,291,914 2,312,251 2,312,251 236.03%
38 Feb-19 1,691,682 2,446,093 754,411 754,411 44.60%
39 Mar-19 2,205,481 2,036,150 - 169,331 169,331 7.68%
40 Apr-19 2,314,963 1,625,609 - 689,354 689,354 29.78%
41 May-19 3,225,655 2,070,709 - 1,154,946 1,154,946 35.81%
42 Jun-19 3,175,664 2,582,033 - 593,631 593,631 18.69%
43 Jul-19 2,606,809 2,905,427 298,618 298,618 11.46%
44 Aug-19 4,161,209 3,002,709 - 1,158,500 1,158,500 27.84%
45 Sep-19 2,702,432 3,314,561 612,128 612,128 22.65%
46 Oct-19 3,841,845 3,156,817 - 685,028 685,028 17.83%
47 Nov-19 5,294,500 3,568,496 - 1,726,004 1,726,004 32.60%
48 Dec-19 3,149,553 3,946,259 796,706 796,706 25.30%
48
- 48,437 576,830 23.65%

Gráfi
20000000

18000000

16000000

14000000

12000000

10000000

8000000

6000000

4000000

2000000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
2000000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
 Peso Peso Peso
0.50 0.40 0.10
Error Error %
Error Cuadrático DESV PROMEDIO Error
Absoluto Absoluto
(MSE) STAND PONDERADO (ME)
(MAD) (MAPE)

237,308,533,332 2,997,019.99 - 172,130 172,130 5.43%

858,336,929,545 3,109,956.88 875,092 875,092 39.16%
13,728,062,657 2,683,058.56 5,667 5,667 0.21%
54,829,631,623 2,549,556.83 89,912 89,912 3.66%
7,781,488,865 2,524,265.58 - 21,248 21,248 0.83%
15,215,724,504 2,524,353.77 - 159,848 159,848 5.96%
497,011,085,115 2,606,270.78 - 661,839 661,839 20.25%
451,783,727,423 2,962,287.20 - 542,470 542,470 15.48%
515,557,356,463 3,328,042.80 893,710 893,710 36.71%
1,519,670,836,057 2,945,880.43 1,109,563 1,109,563 60.42%
103,163,521,891 2,242,367.73 - 670,626 670,626 23.02%
165,400,223,850 2,434,457.00 - 366,785 366,785 13.09%
224,132,307,753 2,749,450.24 706,025 706,025 34.55%
34,672,856,726 2,433,508.70 - 338,585 338,585 12.21%
1,259,413,250,899 2,483,540.86 - 1,177,615 1,177,615 32.17%
7,416,923,013 3,143,757.83 404,321 404,321 14.76%
45,789,572,070 3,111,390.00 267,813 267,813 9.42%
772,635,282,704 2,883,678.70 681,286 681,286 30.93%
10,166,811,364 2,512,570.99 18,266 18,266 0.73%
94,965,244,900 2,412,467.39 - 409,122 409,122 14.50%
59,506,634,499 2,628,755.93 - 121,280 121,280 4.41%
172,172,828,756 2,753,084.01 479,378 479,378 21.08%
44,307,144,596 2,519,026.23 114,409 114,409 4.76%
13,090,273,794 2,386,794.87 25,088 25,088 1.06%
66,629,813,569 2,370,071.24 - 234,733 234,733 9.01%
1,165,592,964,962 2,487,546.85 - 1,049,123 1,049,123 29.66%
83,688,260,139 3,046,427.21 - 77,256 77,256 2.47%
570,660,647,728 3,236,989.66 - 606,817 606,817 15.79%
195,008,441,178 3,525,043.32 465,255 465,255 15.21%
721,881,781,128 3,379,785.19 886,995 886,995 35.58%
148,222,635,706 2,854,690.97 - 662,434 662,434 18.83%
10,347,540,524 3,061,657.36 140,146 140,146 4.80%
211,566,070,607 3,116,884.88 - 320,220 320,220 9.32%
5,346,505,190,556 3,238,869.84 2,259,207 2,259,207 230.61%
 569,136,229,821 2,156,824.77 465,143 465,143 27.50%
28,672,859,594 1,581,416.78 - 624,064 624,064 28.30%
475,209,357,524 1,877,379.52 - 437,583 437,583 18.90%
1,333,900,838,607 2,208,841.97 - 1,016,813 1,016,813 31.52%
352,397,799,889 2,759,360.67 - 416,303 416,303 13.11%
89,172,737,113 3,109,590.17 502,781 502,781 19.29%
1,342,122,348,329 2,896,235.62 - 1,264,974 1,264,974 30.40%
374,701,113,473 3,440,894.72 738,462 738,462 27.33%
469,263,466,498 3,276,380.87 - 565,464 565,464 14.72%
2,979,091,139,809 3,418,016.44 - 1,876,484 1,876,484 35.44%
634,740,851,248 4,454,231.27 1,304,678 1,304,678 41.42%
-
541,034,852,009 735,551 - 30,236 582,822 23.64%

Gráfi co Flores

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
 Alfa
0.25

Error Cuadrático DESV SE

ES(ERROR) MAD MSE
(MSE) STAND SIMPLE

1,731,180 0.00% - -
1,731,180 48.09% 1,604,000 2,572,817,191,220
2,132,180 28.44% 847,480 718,221,814,625
29,628,708,016 2,344,050 26.04% 825,100 680,789,909,650
765,785,376,259 2,550,325 14.12% 315,460 99,514,830,563
32,115,781 2,471,460 7.69% 205,931 42,407,763,159
8,084,149,191 2,522,943 2.57% 63,298 4,006,631,656
451,465,484 2,507,118 1.51% 38,395 1,474,168,216
25,551,436,900 2,516,717 6.24% 167,485 28,051,162,577
438,031,398,703 2,558,588 21.71% 709,522 503,421,268,184
294,273,555,816 2,735,969 21.94% 768,788 591,035,407,053
798,716,907,733 2,928,166 20.29% 493,833 243,870,728,327
1,231,129,877,459 2,804,708 52.74% 968,390 937,779,542,230
449,738,749,192 2,562,610 12.03% 350,383 122,768,404,253
134,531,437,411 2,650,206 5.39% 151,036 22,811,972,619
498,471,757,261 2,687,965 31.54% 644,540 415,431,963,595
114,639,556,996 2,526,830 8.85% 245,263 60,154,106,276
1,386,777,418,692 2,588,146 29.31% 1,073,010 1,151,350,820,018
163,475,716,335 2,856,398 4.27% 116,962 13,680,074,723
71,723,815,057 2,827,158 0.58% 16,419 269,585,571
464,150,084,345 2,831,263 28.55% 628,870 395,476,964,665
333,649,099 2,674,045 7.21% 179,740 32,306,596,783
167,380,742,363 2,629,110 6.82% 192,479 37,048,210,869
14,708,755,422 2,677,230 2.65% 72,806 5,300,658,177
229,803,147,530 2,695,431 18.55% 421,725 177,852,178,247
13,089,307,923 2,590,000 7.71% 185,382 34,366,613,570
629,397,340 2,543,654 7.70% 181,947 33,104,855,767
55,099,699,038 2,498,168 4.09% 106,637 11,371,420,664
1,100,658,136,112 2,524,827 28.61% 1,011,843 1,023,825,367,947
5,968,440,752 2,777,787 11.07% 345,895 119,643,632,636
368,226,605,280 2,864,261 25.48% 979,545 959,508,605,713
216,461,909,959 3,109,148 1.61% 49,359 2,436,307,701
786,760,944,521 3,096,808 24.23% 604,018 364,837,916,660
438,819,114,610 2,945,803 16.24% 571,322 326,408,673,401
19,640,815,201 3,088,634 5.72% 167,122 27,929,809,123
102,541,124,727 3,046,853 11.35% 390,252 152,296,661,788
5,104,015,782,543 3,144,416 220.97% 2,164,753 4,686,156,972,297
 216,357,674,627 2,603,228 53.88% 911,546 830,915,778,257
389,455,848,155 2,375,341 7.70% 169,861 28,852,670,476
191,479,225,270 2,332,876 0.77% 17,913 320,889,607
1,033,908,425,590 2,328,398 27.82% 897,257 805,069,924,867
173,308,357,221 2,552,712 19.62% 622,952 388,068,805,068
252,788,733,961 2,708,450 3.90% 101,641 10,330,880,280
1,600,158,516,156 2,683,040 35.52% 1,478,169 2,184,984,975,496
545,326,536,385 3,052,582 12.96% 350,150 122,604,877,313
319,749,745,774 2,965,045 22.82% 876,800 768,778,715,632
3,521,190,544,695 3,184,245 39.86% 2,110,255 4,453,176,769,565
1,702,185,601,791 3,711,809 17.85% 562,256 316,131,501,312
- -
565,449,784,637 751,964 20.85% 522,362 515,953,901,612

FT (SED)
SE SIMPLE
PROMEDIO PONDERADO
PM3
DT

8 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
8 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
 Alfa Beta
0.25 0.35
Error %
Error Error Absoluto
ST GT FT (SED) Absoluto
(ME) (MAD)
(MAPE)

2,509,260 13,082.35
2,324,551.66 - 56,144.34 2,522,342.23 791,162.27 791,162.27 45.70%
2,535,100.57 37,198.29 2,268,407.31 - 1,066,773.01 1,066,773.01 31.99%
2,674,139.08 72,842.37 2,572,298.86 - 407,360.87 407,360.87 13.67%
2,852,523.56 109,782.11 2,746,981.45 - 422,168.46 422,168.46 13.32%
2,780,445.57 46,131.07 2,962,305.67 727,440.43 727,440.43 32.55%
2,789,280.35 33,077.37 2,826,576.64 149,185.16 149,185.16 5.57%
2,731,679.52 1,340.00 2,822,357.72 362,712.79 362,712.79 14.75%
2,686,142.97 - 15,066.79 2,733,019.52 187,506.23 187,506.23 7.37%
2,674,357.61 - 13,918.29 2,671,076.17 - 13,125.76 13,125.76 0.49%
2,812,357.04 39,252.91 2,660,439.33 - 607,670.86 607,670.86 18.59%
3,014,896.73 96,403.28 2,851,609.95 - 653,147.11 653,147.11 18.64%
2,942,058.30 37,168.68 3,111,300.01 676,966.85 676,966.85 27.81%
2,693,499.62 - 62,835.89 2,979,226.99 1,142,909.48 1,142,909.48 62.24%
2,701,246.13 - 38,132.05 2,630,663.72 - 282,329.64 282,329.64 9.69%
2,697,646.13 - 26,045.83 2,663,114.08 - 138,128.19 138,128.19 4.93%
2,514,556.45 - 81,011.18 2,671,600.30 628,175.38 628,175.38 30.74%
2,518,182.29 - 51,388.22 2,433,545.27 - 338,548.07 338,548.07 12.21%
2,765,384.55 53,118.45 2,466,794.06 - 1,194,361.94 1,194,361.94 32.62%
2,798,736.38 46,200.13 2,818,502.99 79,066.47 79,066.47 2.89%
2,844,596.62 46,081.17 2,844,936.51 1,359.53 1,359.53 0.05%
2,718,606.62 - 14,143.74 2,890,677.79 688,284.71 688,284.71 31.25%
2,651,923.39 - 32,532.56 2,704,462.88 210,157.95 210,157.95 8.43%
2,669,940.45 - 14,840.19 2,619,390.83 - 202,198.48 202,198.48 7.17%
2,678,834.09 - 6,533.35 2,655,100.25 - 94,935.34 94,935.34 3.45%
2,572,652.08 - 41,410.38 2,672,300.73 398,594.60 398,594.60 17.53%
2,499,585.71 - 52,489.98 2,531,241.70 126,623.98 126,623.98 5.27%
2,425,748.57 - 59,961.49 2,447,095.73 85,388.65 85,388.65 3.62%
2,425,541.44 - 39,047.46 2,365,787.08 - 239,017.41 239,017.41 9.18%
2,674,037.83 61,592.89 2,386,493.97 - 1,150,175.43 1,150,175.43 32.52%
2,832,643.76 95,547.45 2,735,630.72 - 388,052.17 388,052.17 12.42%
3,157,095.02 175,663.79 2,928,191.22 - 915,615.22 915,615.22 23.82%
3,264,516.27 151,778.90 3,332,758.81 272,970.16 272,970.16 8.92%
3,185,418.81 70,972.17 3,416,295.16 923,505.44 923,505.44 37.05%
3,321,574.53 93,786.42 3,256,390.98 - 260,734.22 260,734.22 7.41%
3,291,898.63 50,574.60 3,415,360.95 493,849.28 493,849.28 16.90%
3,366,131.25 58,854.91 3,342,473.23 - 94,632.09 94,632.09 2.75%
2,813,655.36 - 155,110.87 3,424,986.16 2,445,323.21 2,445,323.21 249.61%
2,416,828.90 - 239,711.33 2,658,544.49 966,862.36 966,862.36 57.15%
2,184,208.37 - 237,229.55 2,177,117.57 - 28,363.18 28,363.18 1.29%
2,038,974.84 - 205,030.94 1,946,978.82 - 367,984.10 367,984.10 15.90%
2,181,871.64 - 83,256.23 1,833,943.90 - 1,391,710.95 1,391,710.95 43.15%
2,367,877.52 10,985.51 2,098,615.41 - 1,077,048.46 1,077,048.46 33.92%
2,435,849.57 30,930.80 2,378,863.03 - 227,946.13 227,946.13 8.74%
2,890,387.61 179,193.33 2,466,780.36 - 1,694,428.98 1,694,428.98 40.72%
2,977,793.81 147,067.84 3,069,580.94 367,148.49 367,148.49 13.59%
3,304,107.50 209,803.89 3,124,861.65 - 716,983.41 716,983.41 18.66%
3,959,058.54 365,605.39 3,513,911.39 - 1,780,588.61 1,780,588.61 33.63%
4,030,886.18 262,783.18 4,324,663.93 1,175,111.01 1,175,111.01 37.31%
4,293,669.35 4,293,669.35 4,293,669.35
- 48,239 586,423 23.91%
 N
12

Error Cuadrático
ET Regresión Lineal YT DT/YT
(MSE)

625,937,740,233 791,162.27 22,650,418,191 22,650,418,191 0.00007643

1,138,004,659,865 - 1,066,773.01 43,634,518,789 43,634,518,789 0.00007643
165,942,879,147 - 407,360.87 38,983,472,533 38,983,472,533 0.00007643
178,226,208,184 - 422,168.46 41,462,450,090 41,462,450,090 0.00007643
529,169,583,564 727,440.43 29,239,807,378 29,239,807,378 0.00007643
22,256,211,863 149,185.16 35,029,092,248 35,029,092,248 0.00007643
131,560,567,534 362,712.79 32,180,454,825 32,180,454,825 0.00007643
35,158,584,761 187,506.23 33,303,815,206 33,303,815,206 0.00007643
172,285,650 - 13,125.76 35,118,189,074 35,118,189,074 0.00007643
369,263,874,119 - 607,670.86 42,757,083,465 42,757,083,465 0.00007643
426,601,149,044 - 653,147.11 45,852,981,682 45,852,981,682 0.00007643
458,284,111,674 676,966.85 31,849,317,387 31,849,317,387 0.00007643
1,306,242,081,799 1,142,909.48 24,025,864,837 24,025,864,837 0.00007643
79,710,028,242 - 282,329.64 38,111,319,535 38,111,319,535 0.00007643
19,079,398,175 - 138,128.19 36,649,352,224 36,649,352,224 0.00007643
394,604,313,630 628,175.38 26,735,317,230 26,735,317,230 0.00007643
114,614,796,331 - 338,548.07 36,268,015,533 36,268,015,533 0.00007643
1,426,500,442,216 - 1,194,361.94 47,899,047,966 47,899,047,966 0.00007643
6,251,506,451 79,066.47 35,840,787,519 35,840,787,519 0.00007643
1,848,325 1,359.53 37,203,189,745 37,203,189,745 0.00007643
473,735,839,050 688,284.71 28,814,995,165 28,814,995,165 0.00007643
44,166,365,842 210,157.95 32,633,889,116 32,633,889,116 0.00007643
40,884,226,873 - 202,198.48 36,915,539,317 36,915,539,317 0.00007643
9,012,718,474 - 94,935.34 35,979,448,233 35,979,448,233 0.00007643
158,877,653,577 398,594.60 29,747,937,710 29,747,937,710 0.00007643
16,033,632,954 126,623.98 31,460,569,413 31,460,569,413 0.00007643
7,291,221,291 85,388.65 30,899,197,231 30,899,197,231 0.00007643
57,129,322,873 - 239,017.41 34,079,483,623 34,079,483,623 0.00007643
1,322,903,527,701 - 1,150,175.43 46,270,470,254 46,270,470,254 0.00007643
150,584,488,904 - 388,052.17 40,867,634,506 40,867,634,506 0.00007643
838,351,234,871 - 915,615.22 50,288,545,626 50,288,545,626 0.00007644
74,512,709,873 272,970.16 40,031,747,341 40,031,747,341 0.00007643
852,862,289,313 923,505.44 32,614,066,821 32,614,066,821 0.00007643
67,982,335,865 - 260,734.22 46,014,786,031 46,014,786,031 0.00007643
243,887,115,400 493,849.28 38,222,758,920 38,222,758,920 0.00007643
8,955,231,821 - 94,632.09 44,967,937,582 44,967,937,582 0.00007643
5,979,605,605,119 2,445,323.21 12,818,806,744 12,818,806,744 0.00007642
 934,822,822,354 966,862.36 22,133,693,655 22,133,693,655 0.00007643
804,470,096 - 28,363.18 28,855,389,128 28,855,389,128 0.00007643
135,412,295,550 - 367,984.10 30,287,673,523 30,287,673,523 0.00007643
1,936,859,355,394 - 1,391,710.95 42,201,667,730 42,201,667,730 0.00007643
1,160,033,389,381 - 1,077,048.46 41,547,668,046 41,547,668,046 0.00007643
51,959,440,206 - 227,946.13 34,105,709,465 34,105,709,465 0.00007643
2,871,089,558,252 - 1,694,428.98 54,440,922,690 54,440,922,690 0.00007644
134,798,014,668 367,148.49 35,356,687,031 35,356,687,031 0.00007643
514,065,209,755 - 716,983.41 50,262,886,168 50,262,886,168 0.00007644
3,170,495,802,139 - 1,780,588.61 69,267,032,262 69,267,032,262 0.00007644
1,380,885,896,115 1,175,111.01 41,206,075,308 41,206,075,308 0.00007643
18,435,596,513,726
625,237,750,339
 m Alfa Beta Gamma
2 0.15 0.25 1.25

ST GT CT FT ET

0.00007643
0.00007643
0.00007643
0.00007643
0.00007643
0.00007643
0.00007643
0.00007643
0.00007643
0.00007643
0.00007643
2,509,260 7,000.03 0.000076433
3,399,690,775 849,300,629 0.000617413 192.32 1,730,987.6
10,156,847,787 2,326,264,725 0.000391351 324,767.96 3,010,412.4
16,458,178,501 3,320,031,222 0.000207197 954,131.30 2,025,528.4
23,030,949,453 4,133,216,154 0.000152897 1,511,706.77 1,657,443.1
27,475,475,401 4,211,043,603 0.000082567 2,076,236.47 158,628.8
32,187,854,421 4,336,377,457 0.000084867 2,421,930.66 255,460.8
35,872,646,099 4,173,481,012 0.000066599 2,791,663.45 332,018.5
39,034,760,599 3,920,639,384 0.000062406 3,060,861.07 515,347.8
41,779,859,517 3,626,754,268 0.000061200 3,283,200.81 598,998.9
45,009,242,620 3,527,411,476 0.000071654 3,470,593.74 202,483.6
48,134,148,800 3,426,785,152 0.000071907 3,709,858.07 205,101.0
48,604,169,863 2,687,594,130 0.000043498 3,940,965.44 1,506,632.3
44,044,130,950 875,685,869 - 0.000102238 31,668,225.23 29,831,907.7
39,298,358,523 - 529,678,705 - 0.000005181 17,579,417.08 14,666,423.7
34,981,333,975 - 1,476,515,166 0.000048299 8,032,752.53 5,231,510.3
30,483,807,022 - 2,231,768,113 0.000045567 5,122,776.82 3,079,351.9
29,050,298,939 - 2,032,203,105 0.000098638 2,332,692.55 439,400.8
29,436,393,257 - 1,427,628,749 0.000134252 2,292,936.56 1,368,219.4
29,977,422,254 - 935,464,313 0.000097579 1,865,362.45 874,074.1
31,520,532,486 - 315,820,676 0.000097165 1,812,391.40 1,031,185.6
31,922,054,176 - 136,485,085 0.000070941 1,909,718.86 292,674.2
32,239,310,749 - 23,049,671 0.000078797 2,277,556.22 216,748.7
33,269,751,158 240,322,849 0.000088035 2,316,568.57 505,020.7
37,966,926,795 1,354,536,046 0.000079666 1,457,614.05 1,292,421.5
30,087,326,154 - 953,998,125 0.000120022 - 4,020,128.99 6,293,835.1
- 44,849,248,300 - 19,449,642,208 - 0.000065724 - 150,952.28 2,555,570.0
- 47,319,336,787 - 15,204,753,777 - 0.000074462 - 3,105,540.68 5,467,247.8
- 44,570,879,003 - 10,716,450,887 - 0.000084444 - 2,849,049.59 5,453,854.1
- 41,615,979,371 - 7,298,613,257 - 0.000130889 - 5,453,436.64 8,990,106.0
- 38,087,314,279 - 4,591,793,670 - 0.000136080 - 6,566,895.13 9,690,578.0
- 30,368,501,967 - 1,514,142,175 - 0.000182610 - 4,164,599.45 8,008,405.9
- 22,376,668,116 862,351,832 - 0.000195217 - 3,097,888.62 6,157,677.3
- 13,016,340,789 2,986,845,706 - 0.000257126 - 1,526,249.75 4,019,039.5
- 1,829,788,688 5,036,772,304 - 0.002422385 - 790,295.07 4,307,420.3
7,703,799,422 6,160,976,256 0.000452029 282,327.16 2,639,184.5
18,256,646,456 7,258,943,950 0.000215416 1,104,551.94 2,332,553.4
22,912,604,361 6,608,197,439 0.000023440 3,062,436.47 2,082,773.5
 21,231,809,630 4,535,949,397 0.000116027 - 1,940,228.04 3,631,910.2
17,459,769,772 2,458,952,083 0.000176513 - 1,918,721.47 4,124,202.2
12,818,792,411 683,969,722 0.000246850 - 1,682,018.86 3,996,981.8
7,780,712,896 - 746,542,587 0.000550935 - 1,767,360.77 4,993,015.6
2,478,539,517 - 1,885,450,285 0.001635600 - 957,211.56 4,132,875.4
- 1,637,166,177 - 2,443,014,137 - 0.001944684 - 108,304.04 2,715,113.2
- 6,665,533,444 - 3,089,352,420 - 0.000731555 796,518.56 3,364,690.8
- 9,868,177,156 - 3,117,675,243 - 0.000278035 2,508,231.77 194,200.7
- 11,275,871,011 - 2,690,179,896 0.000179704 31,456,729.36 27,614,884.3
- 10,114,230,457 - 1,727,224,783 - 0.000767345 - 6,313,055.72 11,607,555.7
- 7,872,117,414 - 734,890,327 - 0.000553966 - 2,550,838.37 5,700,391.3
- 7,315,956,579 - 412,127,537 - 0.000005860 - 201,749.06 201,749.1
 Chart Title
35000000

30000000

25000000

20000000

15000000

10000000

5000000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

-5000000

-10000000

Column A Column C FT
28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

FT
 Tiempo de proceso de los pedidos en cada etapa (en minutos)
Pedido Etapa 1 Etapa 2 Etapa 3 Etapa 4 Etapa 5 Etapa 6 Etapa 7
Pedido 1 24 22 23 8 18 22 9
Pedido 2 23 8 24 15 10 7 8
Pedido 3 13 25 5 30 11 24 15
Pedido 4 21 30 25 25 25 19 11
Pedido 5 6 15 21 26 20 17 21
Pedido 6 30 29 8 17 6 7 10
Pedido 7 7 7 27 28 6 11 5
Pedido 8 7 7 22 5 11 23 5

Información adicional:

- El objetivo es plantear el programa de producción para los 8 pedidos de bodegones, el cual es

manufacturado en 7 etapas diferentes, realizadas una después de la otra.
- El objetivo que se quiere lograr con la programación es el del menor tiempo de proceso.
- A qué hora se tiene listo cada uno de los pedidos si se asume que la empresa inicia labores desde las
7:00 a.m.?
- Presente el diagrama de Gantt asociado a la mejor solución encontrada.
s

esde las
 - Se empacan 30
Cantidad de ramillete Fecha de Fecha de - Al inicio del día
Pedido Prioridad
de rosas Disponibilidad Entrega - La jornada labo

Viernes 8:00
Pedido 1 814 1 Lunes 11:00 a.m.
p.m.
Jueves 9:00
Pedido 2 945 4
Martes 8:00 a.m. a.m.

Pedido 3 642 5 Miércoles 10:00 Sábado 12:00

a.m. m.
Miércoles 7:00 Viernes 10:00
Pedido 4 588 2
a.m. p.m.
Miércoles 6:00
Pedido 5 888 1 Lunes 9:00 a.m. p.m.
Miércoles 10:00 Jueves 8:00
Pedido 6 722 1 a.m. a.m.
Viernes 6:00
Pedido 7 645 3 Jueves 7:00 a.m.
p.m.
Sábado 2:00
Pedido 8 961 1 Martes 7:00 a.m.
p.m.
Miércoles 2:00 Viernes 8:00
Pedido 9 753 1 p.m. a.m.
Sábado 3:00
Pedido 10 979 5 Martes 7:00 a.m.
p.m.
7,937
- Se empacan 30 ramilletes de rosas por hora
- Al inicio del día hay un alistamiento del trabajador de 0,5 hora
- La jornada laboral es de Lunes a Viernes de 7:00 a.m. a 10:00 p.m.

El gerente de la compañía quiere realizar la secuenciación de los clientes empleando

las reglas de despacho:
- SPT
- WSPT
- EDD
- CR
para luego escoger la que presente mejores resultados, teniendo en cuenta:
- El tiempo de flujo promedio
- El número de trabajos tardíos
- E tiempo de terminación del último trabajo
- La tardanza ponderada total

07:00:00 AM

10:00:00 PM 15:00
 Cantidad de flores (unidades)
Tipo de arreglo floral
Rosas Claveles Astromelias
Bouquet de novia básico 0 0 8
Bouquet de novia especial 6 0 0
Ramillete de rosas 12 0 0
Caja de rosas 24 0 0
Ramillete de claveles 0 12 0
Caja de claveles 0 24 0
Centros de mesa 0 0 20
Bodegones 0 10 0
Jarrones de astromelias 0 0 70
SUMA 42 46 98
PORCENTAJE 22.58% 24.73% 52.69%

Total Producción 2019 35,080,351 86,499,912 35,349,456

DEMANDA REQUERIDA
Periodo Rosas Claveles Astromelias
Jan-19 6% 3% 3%
Feb-19 12% 5% 5%
Mar-19 4% 11% 6%
Apr-19 9% 12% 7%
May-19 5% 4% 8%
Jun-19 3% 13% 9%
Jul-19 14% 11% 9%
Aug-19 7% 7% 10%
Sep-19 6% 7% 10%
Oct-19 14% 7% 11%
Nov-19 8% 13% 12%
Dec-19 13% 6% 11%
7,921,369.54 21,392,451.37 18,624,982.40

Familia Rosas Claveles Astromelias

Empleados Iniciales 5 4 4
Inventario Inicial 0 0 0

Arreglos Rosas Claveles Astromelias

Hora Nec/Unid Nec/Unid Nec/Unid

Ramillete de rosas 15 12 0 0
Caja de rosas 10 24 0 0
Ramillete de claveles 17 0 12 0
Caja de claveles 9 0 24 0
Bouquet de novia básico 5 0 0 8
Bouquet de novia especial 9 6 0 0
Centros de mesa 5 0 0 20
Bodegones 10 0 10 0
Jarrones de Astromelias 3 0 0 70
 DEMANDA TOTAL Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19
Familia de Rosas 457,260.72 954,867.98 295,874.58 726,237.61
Familia de Claveles 548,357.76 1,047,776.36 2,274,836.70 2,563,102.91
Familia de Astromelias 646,700.78 395,029.05 513,537.76 592,543.57
Costos Contratación 550,000
Costo de Despedir 540,000
Salario por Operario 980,657

Costo de Inventario Semana/Und Diario/Unid

Rosas 2000 286
Claveles 1800 257
Astromelias 1700 243

Astromelias
Rosas totales por Claveles totales totales por
Arreglo/ hora por Arreglo/ hora Arreglo/ hora
180 0 0
240 0 0
0 204 0
0 216 0
0 0 40
54 0 0
0 0 100
0 100 0
0 0 210
May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19
376,567.65 201,732.67 1,129,702.96 537,953.79 470,709.57 1,116,254.11
924,634.09 2,866,883.72 2,457,584.42 1,553,766.12 1,506,271.63 1,553,766.12
691,300.83 750,555.19 790,058.09 849,312.45 829,561.00 928,318.26
 Nov-19 Dec-19
618,646.86 1,035,561.04
2,828,760.26 1,266,711.27
987,572.62 908,566.81
 Rosas

Tasa Trabajador/hora Turno Total Producción

180 ramilletes rosas 3 480
240 cajas de rosas 3 640
54 Bouquet novia especial 3 144
8 1,264

Planeación Agregada Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19

Dïas Laborales 23 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Unidades por Trabajador 29,072 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Demanda 457,261 954,868 295,875 726,238
Trabajadores Necesario 16 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Trabajadores Actuales 5 16 #VALUE! #VALUE!
Trabajadores Contratados 11 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Costo de Contratación 6,050,000 9,350,000 - 7,700,000
Trabajadores Despedidos 0 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Costo de Despedir - - 11,880,000 -
Trabajadores Empleados 16 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Costo de Mano de Obra 15,690,512 32,361,681 10,787,227 24,516,425
Capacidad de Producción 465,152 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Unidades Disponibles 457,261 954,868 295,875 726,238
Inventario - - - -
Unidades Faltantes - - - -
Costo de Inventario - - - -
COSTO TOTAL 21,740,512 41,711,681 22,667,227 32,216,425

Planeación Nivelación Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19

Dïas Laborales 23 23 #VALUE! #VALUE!
Unidades por Trabajador 29,072 29,072 #VALUE! #VALUE!
Demanda 457,261 954,868 295,875 726,238
Trabajadores Necesario 23 23 23 23
Trabajadores Actuales 5 23 23 23
Trabajadores Contratados 18 - - -
Costo de Contratación 9,900,000 - - -
Trabajadores Despedidos - - - -
Costo de Despedir -
Trabajadores Empleados 23 23 23 23
Costo de Mano de Obra 22,555,111 22,555,111 22,555,111 22,555,111
Capacidad de Producción 668,656 668,656 #VALUE! #VALUE!
Unidades Disponibles 457,261 954,868 295,875 726,238
Inventario - - - -
Unidades Faltantes - - - -
Costo de Inventario - - - -
COSTO TOTAL 32,455,111 22,555,111 22,555,111 22,555,111
 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
376,568 201,733 1,129,703 537,954 470,710 1,116,254
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
- - 17,600,000 - - 12,100,000
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
6,480,000 3,240,000 - 10,800,000 1,080,000 -
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
12,748,541 6,864,599 38,245,623 18,632,483 16,671,169 38,245,623
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
376,568 201,733 1,129,703 537,954 470,710 1,116,254
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
19,228,541 10,104,599 55,845,623 29,432,483 17,751,169 50,345,623

May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
376,568 201,733 1,129,703 537,954 470,710 1,116,254
23 23 23 23 23 23
23 23 23 23 23 23
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -

23 23 23 23 23 23
22,555,111 22,555,111 22,555,111 22,555,111 22,555,111 22,555,111
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
376,568 201,733 1,129,703 537,954 470,710 1,116,254
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
22,555,111 22,555,111 22,555,111 22,555,111 22,555,111 22,555,111
 Nov-19 Dec-19 TOTAL
#VALUE! #VALUE! 276
#VALUE! #VALUE! 348,864
618,647 1,035,561 7,921,370
#VALUE! #VALUE! 277
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
- 7,700,000 60,500,000
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
9,180,000 - 42,660,000
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
21,574,454 35,303,652 271,641,989
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
618,647 1,035,561 7,921,370
- - -
-
- - -
30,754,454 43,003,652 374,801,989

Nov-19 Dec-19 TOTAL

#VALUE! #VALUE! 276
#VALUE! #VALUE! 348,864
618,647 1,035,561 7,921,370
23 23 276
23 23 258
- - 18
- - 9,900,000
- - -
-
23 23 276
22,555,111 22,555,111 270,661,332
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
618,647 1,035,561 7,921,370
- - -
- -
- - -
22,555,111 22,555,111 280,561,332
 Claveles

Tasa Trabajador/hora Turno Total Producción

204 ramillete de claveles 3 544
216 caja de claveles 3 576
100 Bodegones 3 267
8 1,387

Planeación Agregada Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19

Dïas Laborales 23 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Unidades por Trabajador 31,893 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Demanda 548,358 1,047,776 2,274,837 2,563,103
Trabajadores Necesario 18 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Trabajadores Actuales 4 18 #VALUE! #VALUE!
Trabajadores Contratados 14 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Costo de Contratación 7,700,000 8,250,000 21,450,000 4,950,000
Trabajadores Despedidos 0 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Costo de Despedir - - - -
Trabajadores Empleados 18 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Costo de Mano de Obra 17,651,826 32,361,681 70,607,304 79,433,217
Capacidad de Producción 574,080 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Unidades Disponibles 548,358 1,047,776 2,274,837 2,563,103
Inventario - - - -
Unidades Faltantes - - - -
Costo de Inventario - - - -
COSTO TOTAL 25,351,826 40,611,681 92,057,304 84,383,217

Planeación Nivelación Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19

Dïas Laborales 23 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Unidades por Trabajador 31,893 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Demanda 548,358 1,047,776 2,274,837 2,563,103
Trabajadores Necesario 56 56 56 56
Trabajadores Actuales 5 56 56 56
Trabajadores Contratados 51 - - -
Costo de Contratación 28,050,000 - - -
Trabajadores Despedidos - - - -
Costo de Despedir -
Trabajadores Empleados 56 56 56 56
Costo de Mano de Obra 54,916,792 54,916,792 54,916,792 54,916,792
Capacidad de Producción 1,786,027 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Unidades Disponiles 548,358 1,047,776 2,274,837 2,563,103
Inventario - - - -
Unidades Faltantes - - - -
Costo de Inventario - - - -
COSTO TOTAL 82,966,792 54,916,792 54,916,792 54,916,792
 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
924,634 2,866,884 2,457,584 1,553,766 1,506,272 1,553,766
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
- 33,550,000 - - - 550,000
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
28,080,000 - 6,480,000 15,660,000 540,000 -
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
28,439,053 88,259,130 76,491,246 48,052,193 47,071,536 48,052,193
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
924,634 2,866,884 2,457,584 1,553,766 1,506,272 1,553,766
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
56,519,053 121,809,130 82,971,246 63,712,193 47,611,536 48,602,193

May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
924,634 2,866,884 2,457,584 1,553,766 1,506,272 1,553,766
56 56 56 56 56 56
56 56 56 56 56 56
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -

56 56 56 56 56 56
54,916,792 54,916,792 54,916,792 54,916,792 54,916,792 54,916,792
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
924,634 2,866,884 2,457,584 1,553,766 1,506,272 1,553,766
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
54,916,792 54,916,792 54,916,792 54,916,792 54,916,792 54,916,792
 Nov-19 Dec-19 TOTAL
#VALUE! #VALUE! 276
#VALUE! #VALUE! 382,720
2,828,760 1,266,711 21,392,451
#VALUE! #VALUE! 676
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
22,000,000 - 98,450,000
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
- 26,460,000 77,220,000
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
87,278,473 39,226,280 662,924,132
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
2,828,760 1,266,711 21,392,451
- - -
- -
- - -
109,278,473 65,686,280 838,594,132

Nov-19 Dec-19 TOTAL

#VALUE! #VALUE! 276
#VALUE! #VALUE! 382,720
2,828,760 1,266,711 21,392,451
56 56 672
56 56 621
- - 51
- - 28,050,000
- - -
-
56 56 672
54,916,792 54,916,792 659,001,504
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
2,828,760 1,266,711 21,392,451
- - -
- -
- - -
54,916,792 54,916,792 687,051,504
Esta foto de Autor desconocido está bajo licencia CC BY-NC-ND
 Astromelias

Tasa Trabajador/hora Turno Total Producción

40 Bouquet de novia básico 3 107
100 Centros de mesa 3 267
210 Jarrones de Astromelias 3 560
8 933

Planeación Agregada Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19

Dïas Laborales 23 #VALUE! #VALUE!
Unidades por Trabajador 21,467 #VALUE! #VALUE!
Demanda 646,701 395,029 513,538
Trabajadores Necesario 31 #VALUE! #VALUE!
Trabajadores Actuales 4 31 #VALUE!
Trabajadores Contratados 27 #VALUE! #VALUE!
Costo de Contratación 14,850,000 - 2,750,000
Trabajadores Despedidos 0 #VALUE! #VALUE!
Costo de Despedir - 6,480,000 -
Trabajadores Empleados 31 #VALUE! #VALUE!
Costo de Mano de Obra 30,400,367 18,632,483 23,535,768
Capacidad de Producción 665,467 #VALUE! #VALUE!
Unidades Producidas 646,701 395,029 513,538
Inventario - - -
Costo de Inventario - - -
COSTO TOTAL 45,250,367 25,112,483 26,285,768

Planeación Nivelación Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19

Dïas Laborales 23 23 #VALUE!
Unidades por Trabajador 21,467 21,467 #VALUE!
Demanda 646,701 395,029 513,538
Trabajadores Necesario 35 35 35
Trabajadores Actuales 5 35 35
Trabajadores Contratados 30 - -
Costo de Contratación 16,500,000 - -
Trabajadores Despedidos - - -
Costo de Despedir -
Trabajadores Empleados 35 35 35
Costo de Mano de Obra 34,322,995 34,322,995 34,322,995
Capacidad de Producción 751,333 751,333 #VALUE!
Unidades Producidas 646,701 395,029 513,538
Inventario - - -
Costo de Inventario - - -
COSTO TOTAL 50,822,995 34,322,995 34,322,995
 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
592,544 691,301 750,555 790,058 849,312 829,561
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
2,200,000 2,750,000 1,100,000 1,100,000 1,650,000 -
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
- - - - - 540,000
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
27,458,396 32,361,681 34,322,995 36,284,309 39,226,280 38,245,623
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
592,544 691,301 750,555 790,058 849,312 829,561
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
29,658,396 35,111,681 35,422,995 37,384,309 40,876,280 38,785,623

Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
592,544 691,301 750,555 790,058 849,312 829,561
35 35 35 35 35 35
35 35 35 35 35 35
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -

35 35 35 35 35 35
34,322,995 34,322,995 34,322,995 34,322,995 34,322,995 34,322,995
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
592,544 691,301 750,555 790,058 849,312 829,561
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
34,322,995 34,322,995 34,322,995 34,322,995 34,322,995 34,322,995
 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 TOTAL
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 276
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 257,600
928,318 987,573 908,567 8,883,056
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 420
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
2,750,000 1,650,000 - 30,800,000
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
- - 2,160,000 9,180,000
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
43,148,908 46,090,879 42,168,251 411,875,940
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
928,318 987,573 908,567 8,883,056
- - - -
- - - -
45,898,908 47,740,879 44,328,251 451,855,940

Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 TOTAL

#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 276
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 257,600
928,318 987,573 908,567 8,883,056
35 35 35 35
35 35 35 33
- - - 30
- - - 16,500,000
- - - -
-
35 35 35 420
34,322,995 34,322,995 34,322,995 411,875,940
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
928,318 987,573 908,567 8,883,056
- - - -
- - - -
34,322,995 34,322,995 34,322,995 428,375,940
Tasa/Hora Ramilletes 30
Horas Díarias 15

Total Producción/ diaria 450

Inventario Segur 10%
Inventario Segur 20% Artículo A Enero Febrero Marzo
DÍAS LABORALES (L-V) 14 14 16
REQ. BRUTOS 6300 6300 7200
REC. PLANEADAS
INV. DISPONIBLE 630 630 720
REQ. NETOS 6930 6300 7290
PLAN DE RECIBIR
ÓRDENES 6930 6300 7290
PLAN DE COLOCAR
ÓRDENES
Abril Mayo Junio Julio Agosto Septiembre Octubre Noviembre
16 18 16 18 16 16 16 16
7200 8100 7200 8100 7200 7200 7200 7200

720 810 720 810 720 720 720 720

7200 8190 7110 8190 7110 7200 7200 7200

7200 8190 7110 8190 7110 7200 7200 7200

Diciembre
18
8100

1620
9000

9000