Perdagangan Internasional &

Investasi Asing Jangka Panjang

Kiki Verico, Ph.D

Cakupan
1. Mengapa negara membutuhkan perdagangan?
2. Mengapa negara membutuhkan investasi?
2. Mengapa negara membutuhkan perdagangan?
 https://scontent.cdninstagram.com/hphotos-xfa1/t51.2885-
15/s306x306/e15/10986254_620265724773402_1398315305_n.jpg
Mengapa Harus Dagang?
1. “Trade can make everybody better off ” (do not produce something that cheaper if
you buy, A. Smith, 1776)
2. Autarky is nearly impossible
3. Specialization is nature as we are all relative
4. Absolute, Comparative, Abundance, Specialization, Networks, Competitive
5. Import substitution is misleading
6. Openness starts from trade, investment thus finance: Money follow Goods

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2012/12/24/can-asean-achieve-economic-community.html
http://goliveindonesia.com/2013/05/02/asean-economic-integration-challenges-and-strategies/
http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/blogs/indonesiaproject/?p=2950
 The Large - Economic Size - Member is the High-Income Country

% Population & % GDP of Total EU, 2012

25.0%

20.9%

20.0%

17.0%
15.9%
15.1%
15.0%
13.6%
13.1% 12.6%
12.3%

9.6%
10.0%
8.1% 8.0%

4.7%
5.0%
3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9%
2.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1%
2.0% 1.8% 1.9%
1.5% 1.5%
1.2% 1.1% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0%1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 0.3%
0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2%
0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
0.0%

%Population %GDP

Source: own calculation using the WDI-WB dataset 7

 The Large - Economic Size - Member is the High-Income Country

GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$),2012

80,000

71,620
70,000

HIC>US$ 12,616
59,850
60,000 US$ 12,615>UMIC>US$4,086
55,970

50,000 47,970 47,660

46,490
44,660 44,260
41,750
39,110 38,670
40,000
33,860

29,620
30,000
26,110
23,260 22,800
20,620
20,000 18,120 17,180
14,120 13,830
12,660 12,380

10,000 6,840

Source: own calculation using the WDI-WB dataset 8

http://www.apex-foundation.org/wp-content/uploads/european-entities-member-countries.png 9
Source: http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/blogs/indonesiaproject/2013/05/03/asean-economic-integration-challenges-and-strategies/ 10
 The Large - Economic Size - Member is not the High-Income Country
% Population & %GDP to total ASEAN, 2012
45.0%

40.6%
40.0%
38%

35.0%

30.0%

25.0%

20.0%

16% 15.9%
14.6%
15.0% 13%
12% 11%
11.0%
10.0% 8.7%
7%
4.8%
5.0%
2.4%
0.9% 1% 1.1%
0.1% 0% 1% 1%
0.0%
Singapore Brunei Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Laos Cambodia Myanmar

% Population to Total ASEAN Population % GDP to Total ASEAN GDP

Source: Own calculation using WDI-WB data

11
 The High-Income Country is not the Large - Economic Size - Member

GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$), 2012

50,000
47,210

45,000
LI<$ 1,035
$1,036<LM<$4,085
40,000 $4,086<UM<$12,615
HI>$12,616
35,000 34,173

30,000

25,000

20,000 HIC UMIC LIC

LMIC
Sin,Bru Mlysa,Thai Ina,Phi,Viet,Lao Cbd,Mynmr
15,000

9,820
10,000

5,210
5,000 3,420
2,500
1,550 1,270 880 284
-
Singapore Brunei Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Laos Cambodia Myanmar

Source: Own calculation using WDI-WB data

12
Consistent between share of productivity in area and GNI per Capita

Country %GDP/%Pop GNP/Cap

Singapore 13.77 Singapore

Brunei 10.95 Brunei

Malaysia 2.78 Malaysia
Thailand 1.46 Thailand
Indonesia 0.95 Indonesia
Philippines 0.69 Philippines
Vietnam 0.47 Vietnam
Laos 0.38 Laos
Cambodia 0.25 Cambodia
Myanmar 0.07 Myanmar

Source: own calculation using the WDI-WB dataset 13

 Economic Community: FDI Inflows
‘U.S. based surveys... revealed that U.S. firms were stepping up their
investments in the Community (EC/CU) in anticipation of the benefits likely to
be incurred by firms producing within the Community and no less important,
to avoid the costs likely to be incurred by those remaining outside.... that by
remaining outside of the EU become less attractive to U.S. investors’

(John H. Dunning, 1990)

Free flows of goods (trade), capital (investment), trade related services, whole services, free
flows of people, free flows of money (monetary union & single currency)

14
International Networks
Market driven factors

FDI inflows role in Regional Production Network/RPN (Flying Geese Model of Akamatsu, 1944; Kojima,
1978; Aoki, 1992; Urata, 1993) on ASEAN-5
RPN is behind the Southeast Asia economic integration before the ECBN/guanxi (Wang, 2001) & KPN of
Thailand & ASEAN-4 (Cheong, 2011)
 FDI inflows stimulate knowledge & education advancement in host-countries (Hejazi & Safarian, 1999)
and higher education & political economic stability stimulate FDI inflows (Aggarwal, 2008)
Endogenous relation (Hejazi & Pauly, 2003)
3. Mengapa negara membutuhkan investasi?
Source: Calculated on Indonesia based on World Bank data, 2016
Source: Verico, K., 2016
Source: IMF Report, April 2016
 Red:trade,
Blue:FDI
Yellow:Intern
ational
Reserve

Source: IMF Report, April 2016

13.0 13.0

12.5 12.5

12.0 12.0

11.5 13.00
11.5

12.75
11.0
11.0 12.50

10.5 12.25
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 10.5
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 12.00
LNCHN LNINA
LNCHN LNMLY 11.75

11.50
13.0 13.0
11.25

12.5 12.5 11.00

98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
12.0 12.0
LNCHN LNTHAI

11.5 11.5

11.0 11.0

10.5 10.5

10.0 10.0
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Source: Own calculation
LNCHN LNPHI LNCHN LNVIE
Source: IMF Report, April 2016
Source: IMF Report, April 2016

Source: IMF Report,Source: TE,2016

April 2016
http://www.pajak.go.id/statistik-amnesti
Government Expenditure Multiplier Based On Input Output Table

Source: Verico, K.,, Indonesia IO Table 2010

 High Mass
Consumption
Maturity
Take-off
Pre-Condition for
take-off
Traditional

Source: Verico, K., based on World Bank data, 2016

“Choosing Success”: Competitiveness

1. Export Oriented: Korea (Chaebol: bank financing)  Success Story

2. World Supply Chain: Taiwan (Bee’s Model:SME’s)  Success Story
3. Protection & Local Winner (Monopoly) Proton & Krakatau (Steel,
Automotive & Machinery, no progress)
4. Government Intervention Innovation (RnD) instead of Protection
5. Competitive industry  Innovation & Entrepreneurship (Social Movement)
Traditional Pre-Condition for
Take-off
take-off

Source: Verico, K., based on World Bank data, 2016

2010-2015 Japan South Korea China
FDI Inflows FDI Inflows FDI Inflows
Number of Rank Number of Rank Number of Rank
Sub-Sector (Realization) (Realization) (Realization)
Project Value Project Value Project Value
in 000 US$ in 000 US$ in 000 US$
Food Crops & Plantation 15 5,588 3 53 153,124 1 27 141,100 2
Livestock 5 7,742 1 17 7,595 2 1 0 3
Forestry 4 184 3 31 67,244 1 4 248 2
Fishery 39 11,051 1 10 7,615 2 27 2,303 3
Mining 23 148,309 3 117 821,338 1 359 337,541 2
Total Primary Sector 86 172,873 3 228 1,056,916 1 418 481,191 2
Food Industry 145 528,249 1 106 159,909 2 64 111,122 3
Textile Industry 137 526,517 2 614 600,247 1 14 5,274 3
Leather Goods & Footwear Industry 5 0 3 228 304,105 1 23 4,847 2
Wood Industry 26 16,402 2 53 25,948 1 22 8,457 3
Paper and Printing Industry 52 387,949 1 79 14,893 2 15 6,791 3
Chemical and Pharmaceutical Industry 216 840,559 1 175 395,493 2 35 31,534 3
Rubber and Plastic Industry 206 428,761 2 254 696,408 1 33 121,105 3
Non Metallic Mineral Industry 33 76,345 2 24 21,987 3 49 97,226 1
Metal, Machinery & Electronic Industry 882 2,344,515 2 521 3,572,992 1 258 317,934 3
Medical Preci. & Optical Instru, Watches & Clock Industry 9 2,734 2 9 9,913 1 1 0 3
Motor Vehicles & Other Transport Equip. Industry 775 7,500,682 1 19 15,951 2 18 12,998 3
Other Industry 77 59,563 2 229 143,294 1 35 11,155 3
Total Secondary Sector 2,563 12,712,276 1 2,311 5,961,139 2 567 728,441 3
Electricity, Gas & Water Supply 23 323,121 2 19 287,113 3 53 371,643 1
Construction 71 86,186 1 116 53,286 3 62 78,559 2
Trade & Repair 649 426,370 1 1,137 228,758 2 695 134,670 3
Hotel & Restaurant 109 38,484 2 117 53,076 1 28 3,014 3
Transport, Storage & Communication 88 119,230 2 71 105,937 1 34 29,777 3
Real Estate, Ind. Estate & Business Activities 82 604,140 1 53 41,473 3 40 113,019 2
Other Services 446 115,932 1 325 43,995 2 51 5,467 3
Total Tertiary Sector 1,468 1,713,462 1 1,838 813,638 2 963 736,149 3
Source: Own Calculation based on BKPM data, 2015
 % Total Without Joint Countries
Investment & They are >56% of 2009-2010 to 2011/2013
Total FDI Inflows in Indonesia

Mining USA (45%-47%); Mauritius (0%-17%); Singapore (24%-11%); Netherlands (0% -10%)

Transport, Storage &

Singapore (66%-79%); Netherlands (23%-18%)
Communication

Metal, Machinery & Electronic

Korea (34%-54%); Japan (32%-23%);Singapore (11%-4%)
Industry

Chemical and Pharmaceutical

United Kingdom (0-35%); Japan (6-14%); Australia (25%-14%); Singapore (16%-10%); Netherlands (2%-8%); Korea (4%-7%)
Industry

Motor Vehicles & Other Transport

Japan (67%-89%); Germany (17%-3%); Singapore (11%-3%); USA (0%-2%)
Equip. Industry

Source: Own Calculation based on BKPM Data, 2014

 FDI Inflows to ASEAN’s Host Country by Home Country 1995-2005 (US$ Million: Cumulative)
Host

Home Brunei Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam TOTAL

Japan 0.75% 6.10% 0.04% 16.17% 0.22% 5.87% 29.49% 36.37% 5.00% 100%

China 0.28% 30.66% 1.48% 4.00% 6.92% 10.75% 33.97% 1.62% 10.33% 100%

Korea 0.77% 20.54% 2.19% 3.87% 1.11% 4.84% 21.56% 9.87% 35.25% 100%

USA 0.18% 3.93% 0.01% 27.18% 0.81% 6.90% 46.43% 12.74% 1.82% 100%

EU 6.86% 7.67% 0.19% 11.21% 1.85% 1.76% 57.18% 9.62% 3.67% 100%

ASEAN 3.77% 11.68% 0.74% 23.83% 2.77% 3.29% 24.81% 20.52% 8.59% 100%

Brunei -5.6% 0.0% 59.4% 0.0% 0.0% 43.4% 2.2% 0.6% 100%

Indonesia 1.2% 0.0% 6.1% 0.9% 0.8% 88.5% 1.2% 1.3% 100%

Laos 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% -8.3% 100% 100%

Malaysia 3.2% 18.1% 1.3% 0.8% 1.2% 60.9% 6.3% 8.2% 100%

Myanmar 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 97.1% 2.9% 0.0% 100%

Philippines 0.7% 1.9% 0.0% 14.4% 0.6% 40.4% 34.7% 7.3% 100%

Singapore 4.9% 12.8% 0.0% 35.2% 3.3% 4.8% 30.3% 8.7% 100%

Thailand 0.6% 10.3% 12.0% 15.4% 14.2% 0.3% 10.2% 37.0% 100%

Vietnam 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 44.2% 0.0% 0.0% 38.4% 7.0% 100%

33
Source: Own calculation using Statistic of FDI, ASEAN Secretariat, 2012
 Do you Know the AEC? Know about AEC by Sub-Sector in Service
100

90 Other 56

80
Finance
70
60 100
60 56
Telecommunication 33
50
Tourism & Creative
40 76
Economy
30
Construction 50
20

10
Trade 65
0
Manufacturing (343) Service (187)
0 20 40 60 80 100

Sumber: Studi LPEM, Sementara Tidak Untuk Dikutip, 2014

 Readiness towards the AEC Ready towards AEC by Sub-Sector of
100 Service
90 84
Other 76
80 77

70 Finance 80

60
Telecommunication
50
100
40 Tourism & Creative Economy 89

30
Construction 63
20

10 Trade 71

0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Manufacturing (191) Service (113)

Sumber: Studi LPEM, Sementara Tidak Untuk Dikutip, 2014

 Perceived Impact
100 95
90 89
90 86 84 86
81 80 80
80
70 66 67 67

60
50
40 34 33 33
30
19 20 20
20 14 16 14
10 11
10 5
0
Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No
M S M S M S M S M S M S
Intra ASEAN Extra ASEAN Non Competitive China Obtain Benefit Service Liberalisation Service Liberalisation
Investment Investment Member Loss on Trade Related on Service Sector
Service

Sumber: Studi LPEM, Sementara Tidak Untuk Dikutip, 2014

12.2 OLIGOPOLY
• The Linear Demand Curve—An Example

Figure 12.5

Duopoly Example

The demand curve is P =

30 − Q, and both firms
have zero marginal cost.
In Cournot equilibrium,
each firm produces 10.
The collusion curve shows
combinations of Q1 and Q2
that maximize total profits.
If the firms collude and
share profits equally, each
will produce 7.5.
Also shown is the
competitive equilibrium, in
which price equals
marginal cost and profit is
zero.
 Top Ten Producer Countries (Tonnes) 2011

3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
-
d

ire
ia

a
ia

ka
sia

s
m

ria
an

in

ne
es

Na

vo

an
ge
Ch
ay

In
ail

pi
on

d'I

iL
Ni
al

ilip
et
Th

Sr
Vi

te
In

Ph
Cô No Top Ten Exporting Countries Year 2010 % of World
1 Thailand 898,454 83.7%
2 Malaysia 47,773 4.5%
Source: Own calculation using FAO 3 Guatemala 20,603 1.9%
Statistic Database 4 Belgium 14,255 1.3%
5 Indonesia 12,929 1.2%
6 Cameroon 8,160 0.8%
7 India 7,407 0.7%
8 Germany 6,039 0.6%
38
9 United States of America 5,369 0.5%
10 Sri Lanka 4,563 0.4%
 World Trade Patterns of Natural Rubber
IMT (ITRO) & Non-IMT, 1988-2008 (Thousand
Tonnes/Year)
1200

1000 Non - Incomplete Information

Non - Bayesian

800

600

400

200

0
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
39
IM T NONIM T

Source: Own Description using FAO Statistic Database

Collusive, CNE & Competitive

Competitive Market Collusive Market

 A 
TR1 = P1. Q1  2.Q   A 
Q1 = (A - Q1). Q1 Q1 = 
2
1
  
= A.Q1 - Q12  4.Q1 
 A 
 
MR1= A-2.Q1 = 0 Q2=  2.Q2 
  A 
2
 4.Q 
A A  2 
Q1 = ; Q2 =
2.Q1 2.Q 2
Cournot-Nash Equilibrium
A 1
Q2 =  . Q2
2.Q1 2
Q2
Competitive
A 3
Qcompetitive (A/2Q1,2)  .Q2
2.Q1 2
A A
Cournot-Nash Q1= Q2=
QCNE 3.Q2 3.Q1
(A/3Q1,2)
Assumption:

Qcollusive
(A/4Q1,2)

QK*  q1*  q2*  p  (q *1  q * 2 )
Collusive
QK*  (q1*  q2* )  q m QK*

p (Q ). *
K p.(QK* )  s
K
Qcollusive QCNE Q1 Qcompetitive Q2 p(.)  x 1 (.)
 Microeconomic Approach :
World’s Natural Rubber Trade (in Quantity)

41

Source: Own calculation using FAO Statistic Database

 Country BFTA

Mexico (1999),ASEAN(2003), Australia, Costa Rica, Peru(2010),

China Singapore (2009),Pakistan (2007), India (2007), Hong Kong (2004),
Macao (2004), Chile (2006), NZ (2008)

ASEAN (2008), Indonesia (2008), Philippines (2008), Malaysia

Japan (2006), Thailand (2007), Singapore (2006), Vietnam (2009), Brunei
(2008), Mexico (2005), Chile (2007), Switzerland (2009)

ASEAN, Singapore (2006), India, EFTA (2006), Chile (2004), Peru,

South Korea
USA

China, Japan (2002),South Korea (2006), EFTA, India (2005), Sri

Lanka, Pakistan, Australia (2003), EFTA (2003) Chile, Jordan (2006),
Singapore
Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, New Zealand (2001), Australia
(2003), Panama(2006), Peru (2009), USA (2004)

Malaysia Japan (2006), Pakistan (2008)

Japan (2007), Australia (2005), India, Peru, New Zealand (2005),
Thailand
Singapore, Laos (1991)
Philippines Japan (2008)
Indonesia Japan (2008)
Indonesia – Pakistan PTA

Pendapat Pemerintah Pendapat Pengusaha

Kemungkinan
Persaingan
Persaingan Kemungkinan Legal Manfaat Biaya mencapai Jumlah
Legal Manfaat Biaya Jumlah usaha
usaha mencapai tujuan tujuan

Ekspor 42 46 34 36 44 134 Ekspor 13 21 18 20 17 53

Impor 41 33 31 32 36 111 Impor 11 16 16 17 16 44
Investasi 40 29 29 32 31 103 Investasi 10 17 17 18 17 45
Lapangan Lapangan
pekerjaan 41 29 33 30 29 96 pekerjaan 11 15 15 16 19 46

Jumlah 164 137 127 130 140 444 Jumlah 45 69 66 71 69 188

10/22/2016 Lembaga Penyelidikan Ekonomi dan Masyarakat FEB UI 43

 Nilai Perdagangan dengan Pakistan,
2012 & 2014
2.5

Juta US$
$2.11
2 $1.95

1.5
$1.35

$1.08
1

0.5
$0.27
$0.16

0
Ekspor Impor Net-Ekspor
2012 2014
 AEC AIFTA
FTA Indonesia (2015) ACFTA (2002/10) AKFTA (2005/6) AJFTA (2008) (2010/2013/16/18) AANZFTA (2009) IJEPA (2008)
Goods √ √ √ √ √ √ √
Service √ √ √ √ √ √
Investment √ √ √ √ √ √
IPR √ √ √

Competition
Policy √ √ √

Dispute
Settlement √ √ √ √ √ √ √

Economic &
Technical
Cooperation √ √ √ √ √
ROO √ √ √ √ √ √ √

Custom
Cooperation √ √ √ √ √

Source: CSIS, 2014

Source: CSIS, 2013 45
Source: Verico, 2016
Source: Own Calculation based on the WB data, 2015
 Share of Macro Indicators by Country of TPP (%)

Source: LPEM Team for FTAAP

Source: Verico, 2016
Maksimisasi: TPP; RCEP;OBOR
towards Regional Convergence Source: Verico 2015
Pre-TPP & Post-TPP on GVCs: Trade Diversion

Source: http://www.asiantradecentre.org/talkingtrade/2016/5/30/transforming-supply-chains-ketchup-in-the-tpp
Post TPP GVCs: Market Enlargement (Internal & External)

Source: http://www.asiantradecentre.org/talkingtrade/2016/5/30/transforming-supply-chains-ketchup-in-the-tpp
Adjustment Cost to Total Gain
ASEAN Economic Convergence
Terima Kasih
LPEM FEB UI
25 Oktober 2016