Latihan IRR dan NPV

Tahun ke 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Revenue 200 200 200 200 200 200 200
Operating Expenditure (Opex) (80) (80) (80) (80) (80) (80) (80)
Capital Expenditure (Capex) (400)
FREE CASH FLOW (400) 120 120 120 120 120 120 120

Discount Rate (cost of capital) 28%

NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV) 80

INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (IRR) 33%

0 1 2 3
100 800 900
npv 1,428
irr Err:523
 Terminal
8 9 10 Value
200 200 200
(80) (80) (80)

120 120 120 1,320

Menghitung CAGR
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Populasi 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
20.0% 16.7% 14.3% 12.5%

Rata-rata growth aritmetik 15.86%

Rata-rata growth geometrik (CAGR) 15.83%

Actual Proyeksi Proyeksi Proyeksi Proyeksi

Aritmetik 1,000 1,159 1,342 1,555 1,802
Geometrik 1,000 1,158 1,342 1,554 1,800
Revenue Projection HISTORICAL

Target Population Units 2013 2014 2015

Bandung mio people 3.00 3.05 3.09
Jakarta mio people 12.00 12.18 12.36
TOTAL POPULATION mio people 15.00 15.23 15.45
Growth

Addressable Market (AM)

percent of population who CAN buy %
mio people

Total Market
percent of AM who WILL buy %
mio people

Consumption per capita unit per year

Total Market mio units

Market share
Competitor A percent
Competitor B percent
Competitor C percent
My Company percent

Competitor A mio units

Competitor B mio units
Competitor C mio units
My Company mio units

Revenue
Total sales Units

Price Rp / unit
inflation percent

Revenue Rp / year
 PROJECTION
0 1 2 3 4 5
CAGR (13-15) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
1.5% 3.14 3.18 3.23 3.28 3.33 3.38
1.5% 12.55 12.74 12.93 13.12 13.32 13.52
15.69 15.92 16.16 16.40 16.65 16.90
1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

3.18 3.23 3.28 3.33 3.38

5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17

1 1 1 1 1
0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17

50% 48.00% 46.00% 44.00% 42.00%

25% 23.00% 21.00% 19.00% 17.00%
20% 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00%
5% 11% 17% 23% 29%

0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07

0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03
0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05

7,960 17,775 27,883 38,290 49,002

10,000 11,000 12,100 13,310 14,641

10% 10% 10% 10%

79,602,266 195,527,047 337,381,919 509,635,235 717,444,541

 6 7 8 9 10
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
3.43 3.48 3.53 3.59 3.64
13.72 13.93 14.14 14.35 14.56
17.15 17.41 17.67 17.93 18.20
1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

3.43 3.48 3.53 3.59 3.64

5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18

1 1 1 1 1
0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18

40.00% 38.00% 36.00% 34.00% 32.00%

15.00% 13.00% 11.00% 9.00% 7.00%
10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00%
35% 41% 47% 53% 59%

0.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06

0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01
0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00
0.06 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.11

60,028 71,373 83,045 95,052 107,399

16,105 17,716 19,487 21,436 23,579

10% 10% 10% 10% 10%

966,756,519 1,264,420,852 1,618,319,912 2,037,516,418 2,532,421,467

Operating Expenditure Projection
Units PROJECTION
0 1
Revenue Rp / year 79,602,266

Operating Expenditures
Cost of Goods Sold % or revenue 25% 25%
Rp / year 19,900,567 19,900,567

Selling and Administrative Expenses % or revenue 10%

Rp / year 7,960,227

Others % or revenue 5%
Rp / year 3,980,113

Total Operating Expenditures Rp / year 19,900,567 31,840,907

 2 3 4 5 6
195,527,047 337,381,919 509,635,235 717,444,541 966,756,519

50% 50% 50% 50% 50%

97,763,523 168,690,960 254,817,617 358,722,271 483,378,260

10% 10% 10% 10% 10%

19,552,705 33,738,192 50,963,523 71,744,454 96,675,652

5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
9,776,352 16,869,096 25,481,762 35,872,227 48,337,826

127,092,580 219,298,247 331,262,903 466,338,952 628,391,738

 7 8 9 10
1,264,420,852 1,618,319,912 2,037,516,418 2,532,421,467

50% 50% 50% 50%

632,210,426 809,159,956 1,018,758,209 1,266,210,734

10% 10% 10% 10%

126,442,085 161,831,991 203,751,642 253,242,147

5% 5% 5% 5%
63,221,043 80,915,996 101,875,821 126,621,073

821,873,554 1,051,907,943 1,324,385,672 1,646,073,954

Capital Expenditure Projection
Units PROJECTION
0 1
Revenue Rp / year 79,602,266

Working Capital % or revenue 10% 10%

Rp / year 7,960,227 7,960,227

Fixed Assets
Renovasi kantor Rp / year 250,000,000
Komputer Rp / year 100,000,000
Software Rp / year 50,000,000
dll.. Rp / year 15,000,000
Total Fixed Asset Investments Rp / year 415,000,000 -

Total Capital Expenditures Rp / year 422,960,227 7,960,227

 2 3 4 5 6
195,527,047 337,381,919 509,635,235 717,444,541 966,756,519

10% 10% 10% 10% 10%

19,552,705 33,738,192 50,963,523 71,744,454 96,675,652

250,000,000
100,000,000
50,000,000
15,000,000
- - 415,000,000 - -

19,552,705 33,738,192 465,963,523 71,744,454 96,675,652

 7 8 9 10
1,264,420,852 1,618,319,912 2,037,516,418 2,532,421,467

10% 10% 10% 10%

126,442,085 161,831,991 203,751,642 253,242,147

- - - -

126,442,085 161,831,991 203,751,642 253,242,147

INVESTMENT VALUATION
Year
FREE CASH FLOW PROJECTION Units 0 1 2 3

Revenue Rp mio - 79.60 195.53 337.38

Operating Expeditures (19.90) (31.84) (127.09) (219.30)

Cost of Goods Sold Rp mio (19.90) (19.90) (97.76) (168.69)
Selling and Administrative Expenses Rp mio - (7.96) (19.55) (33.74)
Others Rp mio - (3.98) (9.78) (16.87)

Capital Expenditures Rp mio (422.96) (7.96) (19.55) (33.74)

Working Capital Rp mio (7.96) (7.96) (19.55) (33.74)
Fixed Assets Rp mio (415.00) - - -

FREE CASH FLOWS Rp mio (442.86) 39.80 48.88 84.35

Percentage of Debt 20%

Cost of Debt 15%
Corporate income tax rate 30%

Percentage of Equity 80%

Cost of Equity 24%

Weighted Average Cost of Capital 21.3%

(discount rate)

IRR 36.3%

NPV (Rp mio) 863.83

 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Terminal
Value
509.64 717.44 966.76 1,264.42 1,618.32 2,037.52 2,532.42

(331.26) (466.34) (628.39) (821.87) (1,051.91) (1,324.39) (1,646.07)

(254.82) (358.72) (483.38) (632.21) (809.16) (1,018.76) (1,266.21)
(50.96) (71.74) (96.68) (126.44) (161.83) (203.75) (253.24)
(25.48) (35.87) (48.34) (63.22) (80.92) (101.88) (126.62)

(465.96) (71.74) (96.68) (126.44) (161.83) (203.75) (253.24)

(50.96) (71.74) (96.68) (126.44) (161.83) (203.75) (253.24)
(415.00) - - - - - -

(287.59) 179.36 241.69 316.11 404.58 509.38 633.11 6,964.16