Tome2 - Nick Land's Writings From 2011
Tome2 - Nick Land's Writings From 2011
Tome2 - Nick Land's Writings From 2011
NICK LAND
LAND'S
'S WRITINGS (2011-)
NICK LAND
LAND'S
'S WRITINGS (2011-)
Edited b
byy
Uriel Fiori
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
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DARK
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DARWINISM
ARWINISM...............................................................
...............................................................147
147
CHAPTER ONE - SELECTION .......................................................170
CHAPTER TWO - DYSGENICS .....................................................176
CHAPTER THREE - EUGENICS AND SPECIATION .............188
CHAPTER FOUR - STEREOTYPES ..............................................198
CHAPTER FIVE - RACES..................................................................212
SECTION A - CLADISTICS........................................................................235
CHAPTER ONE - RELIGIOUS CLADES......................................236
CHAPTER TWO - ETHNO-CULTURAL CLADES...................248
CHAPTER THREE - THE PURITAN QUESTION.....................268
CHAPTER FOUR - ALTERNATE PATHS.....................................281
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THEORY.................................................................
.................................................................300
300
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CHAPTER ONE - THE BASICS.......................................................301
CHAPTER TWO - DISTRIBUTION, FRAGMENTATION AND
TRUST......................................................................................................315
CHAPTER THREE - IDEOLOGICAL SPACE .............................366
CHAPTER FOUR - LIBERALISM ...................................................394
SECTION A - REPUBLICANISM AND CONSTITUTIONS ...........407
CHAPTER ONE - SOVEREIGNTY ................................................408
CHAPTER TWO - CONSTITUTIONS AND ALGORITHMIC
GOVERNANCE....................................................................................423
SEQUENCE i - NEOCAMERALISM ..................................................463
CHAPTER ONE - PRIMERS ............................................................464
CHAPER TWO - IMPLEMENTATION.........................................494
SECTION B - FASCISM...............................................................................509
CHAPTER ONE - THE BASICS.......................................................510
CHAPTER TWO - NEOLIBERALISM: THE FASCISM THAT
WON ........................................................................................................519
CHAPTER THREE - EURASIANISM, THE ALT-RIGHT AND
CURRENT EVENTS ............................................................................541
SECTION C - STRATEGICS.......................................................................557
CHAPTER ONE - ROUGH TRIANGLES .....................................558
CHAPTER TWO - INCENTIVES....................................................570
CHAPTER THREE - MUTUAL INTENSIFICATION ...............575
CHAPTER FOUR - SUBVERSION AND CAMOUFLAGE....587
CHAPTER FIVE - HEGEMONIC HEADEACHES....................597
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March 2, 2012
That’s always the trouble with history. It always looks like it’s
over. But it never is.
(Mencius Moldbug)
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was not based on the will of the majority and was not,
therefore, democratic.
If the Framers of the Constitution did not embrace
democracy, what did they adhere to? To a man, the Framers
agreed that the purpose of government was to secure
citizens in John Locke’s trilogy of the rights to life, liberty and
property.
He elaborates:
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free internal trade within the United States were sacred. The
scope and scale of the government remained very
constrained. All this was very consistent with what was
understood to be liberty.
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Yes many trends have been positive for a century or so, and
yes this suggests they will continue to rise for a century or
so. But no this does not mean that students are empirically or
morally wrong for thinking it “utopian fantasy” that one could
“end poverty, disease, tyranny, and war” by joining a modern-
day Kennedy’s political quest. Why? Because positive recent
trends in these areas were not much caused by such political
movements! They were mostly caused by our getting rich
from the industrial revolution, an event that political
movements tended, if anything, to try to hold back on
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average.
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riddance it was.
However, you can’t keep a good parasite down. A
community of Puritans fled to America and founded the
theocratic colonies of New England. After its military
victories in the American Rebellion and the War of Secession,
American Puritanism was well on the way to world
domination. Its victories in World War I, World War II, and
the Cold War confirmed its global hegemony. All legitimate
mainstream thought on Earth today is descended from the
American Puritans, and through them the English Dissenters.
Given the rise of this “really ugly bug” to world dominion, it might
seem strange to pick on tangential figure such as Dawkins, but
Moldbug selects his target for exquisitely-judged strategic reasons.
Moldbug identifies with Dawkins’ Darwinism, with his intellectual
repudiation of Abrahamic theism, and with his broad commitment
to scientific rationality. Yet he recognizes, crucially, that Dawkins’
critical faculties shut off – abruptly and often comically – at the point
where they might endanger a still broader commitment to
hegemonic progressivism. In this way, Dawkins is powerfully
indicative. Militant secularism is itself a modernized variant of the
Abrahamic meta-meme, on its Anglo-Protestant, radical democratic
taxonomic branch, whose specific tradition is anti-traditionalism.
The clamorous atheism of The God Delusion represents a protective
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March 9, 2012
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Will it happen here [in the UK]? The patterns are not
dissimilar. In the 2010 election the Conservatives won only
16 per cent of the ethnic minority vote, while Labour won
the support of 72 per cent of Bangladeshis, 78 per cent of
African-Caribbeans and 87 per cent of Africans. The Tories
are slightly stronger among British Hindus and Sikhs –
mirroring Republican support among Asian-Americans – who
are more likely to be home-owning professionals and feel less
alienated.
The Economist recently asked if the Tories had a “race
problem”, but it may just be that democracy has a race
problem.
— Ed West (here)
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Christian piety, and their ‘Red State’ dupes respond with dyspeptic
outrage on cable TV shows. Like every other war against fuzzy nouns
(whether ‘poverty’, ‘drugs’, or ‘terror’), the outcome is predictably
perverse. If resistance to the War on Christmas is not yet established
as the solid center of Yuletide festivities, it can be confidently
expected to become so in the future. The purposes of the Cathedral
are served nonetheless, through promotion of a synthetic secularism
that separates the progressive faith from its religious foundations,
whilst directing attention away from the ethnically specific,
dogmatic creedal content at its core.
As reactionaries go, traditional Christians are generally
considered to be quite cuddly. Even the most wild-eyed fanatics of
the neo-puritan orthodoxy have trouble getting genuinely excited
about them (although abortion activists get close). For some real red
meat, with the nerves exposed and writhing to jolts of hard
stimulation, it makes far more sense to turn to another discarded and
ceremonially abominated block on the progressive lineage: White
Identity Politics, or (the term Moldbug opts for) ‘white nationalism’.
Just as the ratchet progress of neo-puritan social democracy is
radically facilitated by the orchestrated pillorying of its embryonic
religious forms, so is its trend to consistently neo-fascist political
economy smoothed by the concerted repudiation of a ‘neo-nazi’ (or
paleo-fascist) threat. It is extremely convenient, when constructing
ever more nakedly corporatist or ‘third position’ structures of state-
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Tanstaafl, and here we are, in late Summer 2007, shortly after he got
‘the Jew thing’. There isn’t anything very original about his epiphany,
which is exactly the point. He quotes himself:
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Google is overkill. A little link-trawling will get you there. It’s a ‘six
degrees of separation’ problem (and more like two, or less). Start
digging into the actually existing ‘reactosphere’, and things get quite
astoundingly ugly very quickly. Yes, there really is ‘hate’, panic, and
disgust, as well as a morbidly addictive abundance of very grim,
vitriolic wit, and a disconcertingly impressive weight of credible fact
(these guys just love statistics to death). Most of all, just beyond the
horizon, there’s the black hole. If reaction ever became a popular
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truth’. (Did anybody ever need to ask why the reductio ad Hitlerum
works?)
Conveniently, like the secularized neo-puritanism that it
swallows, (aversive) Hitlerism can be safely taught in American
schools, at a remarkably high level of religious intensity. Insofar as
progressive or programmatic history continues, this suggests that
the Church of Sacred Hitlerite Abomination will eventually supplant
its Abrahamic predecessors, to become the world’s triumphant
ecumenical faith. How could it not? After all, unlike vanilla deism, this
is a faith that fully reconciles religious enthusiasm with enlightened
opinion, equally adapted, with consummate amphibious capability,
to the convulsive ecstasies of popular ritual and the letter pages of
the New York Times. “Absolute evil once walked amongst us, and
lives still …” How is this not, already, the principal religious message
of our time? All that remains unfinished is the mythological
consolidation, and that has long been underway.
There’s still some bone-fragment picking to do among the ashes
and debris [in Part 5], before turning to healthier things …
April 1, 2012
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now (if ever)? – If your heart is sinking under the gloomy suspicion
this is going to be huge, meandering, nerve-wracking, and torturous,
you’re right. We’ve got weeks in this chamber of horrors to look
forward to.
The two simplest, quite widely held, and basically incompatible
answers to the first question deserve to be considered as important
parts of the problem.
Question: What is America’s race problem?
Answer-1: Black people.
Answer-2: White people.
The combined popularity of these options is significantly
expanded, most probably to encompass a large majority of all
Americans, when is taken to include those who assume that one of
these two answers dominates the thinking of the other side.
Between them, the propositions “The problem would be over if we
could just rid ourselves of black hoodlums / white racists” and / or
“They think we’re all hoodlums / racists and want to get rid of us”
consume an impressive proportion of the political spectrum,
establishing a solid foundation of reciprocal terror and aversion.
When defensive projections are added (“We’re not hoodlums, you’re
racists” or “We’re not racists, you’re hoodlums”), the potential for
super-heated, non-synthesizing dialectics approaches the infinite.
Not that these ‘sides’ are racial (except in black or white tribal-
nationalist fantasy). For crude stereotypes, it is far more useful to
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One [factor], which I’ve written about more than once, I think,
in the United States, is just despair. I am of a certain age,
and I was around 50 years ago. I was reading the newspapers
and following world events and I remember the civil rights
movement. I was in England, but we followed it. I remember
it, I remember what we felt about it, and what people were
writing about it. It was full of hope. The idea in everyone’s
mind was that if we strike down these unjust laws and we
outlaw all this discrimination, then we’ll be whole. Then
America will be made whole. After an intermediate period of
a few years, who knows, maybe 20 years, with a hand up from
things like affirmative action, black America will just merge
into the general population and the whole thing will just go
away. That’s what everybody believed. Everybody thought
that. And it didn’t happen.
Here we are, we’re 50 years later, and we’ve still got these
tremendous disparities in crime rates, educational
attainment, and so on. And I think, although they’re still
mouthing the platitudes, Americans in their hearts feel a kind
of cold despair about it. They feel that Thomas Jefferson was
probably right and we can’t live together in harmony. I think
that’s why you see this slow ethnic disaggregation. We have a
very segregated school system now. There are schools within
10 miles of where I’m sitting that are 98 percent minority. In
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It was, of course, on the left that the fireworks truly ignited. Elspeth
Reeve at the Atlantic Wire contended that Derbyshire had clung on
to his relation with the National Review because he was offering
the magazine’s “less enlightened readers” what they wanted: “dated
racial stereotypes.” Like Gibson on the right, she was keen for people
to learn a wider lesson: don’t think for a minute this stops with
Derbyshire. (The stunningly uncooperative comments thread to her
article is worth noting.)
At Gawker, Louis Peitzman jumped the shark (in the approved
direction) by describing Derbyshire’s “horrifying diatribe” as the
“most racist article possible,” a judgment that betrays extreme
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Obno
Obnoxious
xious observations
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“Let’s talk about the elephant in the room. I’m black, OK” the
woman said, declining to be identified because she
anticipated backlash due to her race. She leaned in to look a
reporter directly in the eyes. “There were black boys robbing
houses in this neighborhood,” she said. “That’s why George
was suspicious of Trayvon Martin.”
— Chris Francescani (Reuters)
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to the simmering brink of race riots, when the message began falling
apart, to such an extent that it now threatened to decay into an
annoyingly irrelevant case of black-on-black violence. It was not only
that George Zimmerman had black ancestry – making him simply
‘black’ by the left’s own social constructivist standards – he had also
grown up amicably among black people, with two African-American
girls as “part of the household for years,” had entered into joint
business venture with a black partner, he was a registered Democrat,
and even some kind of ‘community organizer’ …
So why did Martin die? Was it for carrying iced tea and a bag
of Skittles while black (the media and community activist approved,
‘son Obama might have had’ version), for scoping out burglary
targets (the Kluxer racial profiling version), or for breaking
Zimmerman’s nose, knocking him over, sitting on top of him, and
smashing his head repeatedly against the sidewalk (to be decided in
court)? Was he a martyr to racial injustice, a low-level social predator,
or a human symptom of American urban crisis? The only thing that
was really clear when legal proceedings began, beyond the squalid
sadness of the episode, was that it was not resolving anything.
For a sense of just how disconcertingly the approved lesson had
disintegrated by the time Zimmerman was charged with second
degree murder, it is only necessary to read this post by HBD-blogger
oneSTDV, describing the dialectical derangements of the race-
warrior right:
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The pop PC police were ready to move on. With the great show trial
collapsing into narrative disorder, it was time to refocus on the
Message, facts be damned (and double damned). ‘Jezebel’ best
exemplifies the hectoring, vaguely hysterical tone:
You know how you can tell that black people are still
oppressed? Because black people are still oppressed. If you
claim that you are not a racist person (or, at least, that you’re
committed to working your ass off not to be one — which is
really the best that any of us can promise), then you must
believe that people are fundamentally born equal. So if that’s
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Does anyone “really believe that people are born equal,” in the way
it is understood here? Believe, that is, not only that a formal
expectation of equal treatment is a prerequisite for civilized
interaction, but that any revealed deviation from substantial equality
of outcome is an obvious, unambiguous indication of oppression?
That’s “the only thing you could possibly conclude”?
At the very least, Jezebel should be congratulated for expressing
the progressive faith in its purest form, entirely uncontaminated by
sensitivity to evidence or uncertainty of any kind, casually
contemptuous of any relevant research – whether existent or merely
conceivable – and supremely confident about its own moral
invincibility. If the facts are morally wrong, so much worse for the
facts – that’s the only position that could possibly be adopted, even
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one child knows that nobody is born equal (monozygotic twins and
clones perhaps excepted). In fact, everybody is born different, in
innumerable ways. Even when – as is normally the case – the
implications of these differences for life outcomes are difficult to
confidently predict, their existence is undeniable, or at least:
sincerely undeniable. Of course sincerity, or even minimal cognitive
coherence, is not remotely the issue here. Jezebel’s position, whilst
impeccable in its political correctness, is not only factually dubious,
but rather laughably absurd, and actually – strictly speaking —
insane. It dogmatizes a denial of reality so extreme that nobody could
genuinely maintain, or even entertain it, let alone plausible explain
or defend it. It is a tenet of faith that cannot be understood, but only
asserted, or submitted to, as madness made law, or authoritarian
religion.
The political commandment of this religion is transparent: Accept
progressive social policy as the only possible solution to the sin
problem of inequality. This commandment is a ‘categorical
imperative’ – no possible fact could ever undermine, complicate, or
revise it. If progressive social policy actually results in an
exacerbation of the problem, ‘fallen’ reality is to blame, since the
social malady is obviously worse than had been originally envisaged,
and only redoubled efforts in the same direction can hope to remedy
it. There can be nothing to learn in matters of faith. Eventually,
systematic social collapse teaches the lesson that chronic failure and
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conclusions,” but his reasons for doing so are not consumed by his
gastro-emotional crisis. “But what exactly is a statistical truth?” he
asks. “It’s a probability estimate you might fall back on if you know
nothing about [a particular individual]. It’s an ignorant person’s weak
substitute for knowledge.” Derbyshire, with his Aspergery attention
to the absence of black Fields Medal winners, is “…a math nerd who
substitutes statistical intelligence for social intelligence. He
recommends group calculations instead of taking the trouble to
learn about the person standing in front of you.”
Millman emphasizes the ironic reversal that switches (obnoxious)
social scientific knowledge into imperative ignorance:
The “race realists” like to say that they are the ones who are
curious about the world, and the “politically correct” types
are the ones who prefer to ignore ugly reality. But the advice
Derbyshire gives to his children encourages them not to be
too curious about the world around them, for fear of getting
hurt. And, as a general rule, that’s terrible advice for kids –
and not the advice that Derbyshire has followed in his own
life.
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[Brief intermission …]
May 3, 2012
The Cr
Crack
acker
er Factory
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Yet, if God wills that it continue until all the wealth piled by
the bondsman’s two hundred and fifty years of unrequited
toil shall be sunk, and until every drop of blood drawn with
the lash shall be paid by another drawn with the sword, as
was said three thousand years ago, so still it must be said “the
judgments of the Lord are true and righteous altogether.”
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I have a dream that one day this nation will rise up and live
out the true meaning of its creed: “We hold these truths to be
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One hundred years later, the life of the Negro is still sadly
crippled by the manacles of segregation and the chains of
discrimination. One hundred years later, the Negro lives on
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The story of Exodus is exit, the War of Independence is exit, and the
emancipation from slavery is exit, especially when this is exemplified
by the Underground Railroad and the model of self-liberation,
escape, or flight. To be ‘manacled’ by segregation, ‘chained’ by
discrimination, trapped on a ‘lonely island of poverty’, or ‘exiled’ in
one’s ‘own land’, in contrast, has no relation to exit whatsoever,
beyond that which spell-binding metaphor can achieve. There is no
exit into social integration and acceptance, equitably distributed
prosperity, public participation, or assimilation, but only an
aspiration, or a dream, hostage to fact and fortune. As the left and
the reactionary right were equally quick to notice, insofar as this
dream ventures significantly beyond a right to formal equality and
into the realm of substantial political remedy, it is one that the right
has no right to.
In the immediate wake of the John Derbyshire affair, Jessica
Valenti at The Nation blog makes the point clearly:
… this isn’t just about who has written what — it’s about the
intensely racist policies that are par for the conservative
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flight’ is no more ‘white’ than low time-preference is, but this broad-
brush insensitivity is deemed acceptable, because it structurally
supports the Cracker Factory, and the indispensable confusion of
ancient (or negative) liberty with original (racial) sin.
You absolutely, definitely, mustn’t go there … so, of course, we will
… [next]
Odd Marriages
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are bred in clans, such as those populating Britain’s Celtic fringe and
borderlands, where cousin marriage persisted, along with its
associated socio-economic and cultural forms, especially herding
(rather than farming), and a disposition towards extreme, vendetta-
style violence.
This analysis introduces the central paradox of ‘white identity’,
since the specifically European ethnic traits that have structured the
moral order of modernity, slanting it away from tribalism and
towards reciprocal altruism, are inseparable from a unique heritage
of outbreeding that is intrinsically corrosive of ethnocentric
solidarity. In other words: it is almost exactly weak ethnic
groupishness that makes a group ethnically modernistic, competent
at ‘corporate’ (non-familial) institution building, and thus objectively
privileged / advantaged within the dynamic of modernity.
This paradox is most fully expressed in the radical forms of
European ethnocentric revivalism exemplified by paleo- and neo-
Nazism, confounding its proponents and antagonists alike. When
exceptionally advanced ‘race-treachery’ is your quintessential racial
feature, the opportunity for viable ethno-supremacist politics
disappears into a logical abyss – even if occasions for large-scale
trouble-making no doubt remain. Admittedly, a Nazi, by definition,
is willing (and eager) to sacrifice modernity upon the altar of racial
purity, but this is either not to understand, or to tragically affirm, the
inevitable consequence – which is to be out-modernized (and thus
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Thomas Woods
* Tom Palmer doesn’t heart Lew Rockwell or Hans-Hermann
Hoppe because “Together They Have Opened the Gates of Hell and
Welcomed the Most Extreme Right-Wing Racists, Nationalists, and
Assorted Cranks”
* Libertarians / constitutionalists account for 20% of the SPLC
‘Radical Right’ watch list (Chuck Baldwin, Michael Boldin, Tom
DeWeese, Alex Jones, Cliff Kincaid, and Elmer Stewart Rhodes)
… perhaps that’s enough to be going on with (although there’s
plenty more within easy reach). These points have been selected,
questionably, crudely, and prejudicially, to lend impressionistic
support to a single basic thesis: fundamental socio-historical forces
are crackerizing libertarianism.
If the tentative research conclusions drawn by hbdchick are
accepted as a frame, the oddity of this marriage between libertarian
and neo-confederate themes is immediately apparent. When
positioned on a bio-cultural axis, defined by degrees of outbreeding,
the absence of overlap – or even proximity – is dramatically exposed.
One pole is occupied by a radically individualistic doctrine, focused
near-exclusively upon mutable networks of voluntary interchange of
an economic type (and notoriously insensitive to the very existence
of non-negotiable social bonds). Close to the other pole lies a rich
culture of local attachment, extended family, honor, contempt for
commercial values, and distrust of strangers. The distilled rationality
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Cross-coded history
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July 3, 2012
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process.
3. Tiny minorities of individuals do most of the evolving
instead of the species as a whole.
A second important characteristic of evolution is self-
reference (Campbell, 1982). The Cartesian cartoon of an
autonomous external “environment” dictating the form of a
species like a cookie cutter cutting stencils from sheets of
dough is dead, dead wrong. The species molds its
environment as profoundly as the environment “evolves” the
species. In particular, the organisms cause the limiting
conditions of the environment over which they compete.
Therefore the genes play two roles in evolution. They are the
targets of natural selection and they also ultimately induce
and determine the selection pressures that act upon them.
This circular causality overwhelms the mechanical character
of evolution. Evolution is dominated by feedback of the
evolved activities of organisms on their evolution.
The third seminal realization is that evolution extends
past the change in organisms as products of evolution to
change in the process itself. Evolution evolves (Jantsch, 1976;
Balsh, 1989; Dawkins, 1989; Campbell, 1993). Evolutionists
know this fact but have never accorded the fact the
importance that it deserves because it is incommensurate
with Darwinism. Darwinists, and especially modern
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When seen from the bionic horizon, whatever emerges from the
dialectics of racial terror remains trapped in trivialities. It’s time to
move on.
Malthusian Horror
The post is pitched like this because it’s Friday night, but it works.
A more dutiful post might have been entitled simply ‘Malthus’ and
involved a lot of work. That’s going to be needed at some point.
(Here‘s the 6th edition of An Essay on the Principle of Population, for
anyone who wants to get started now.) A more thoroughly technical
approach would have been flagged ‘Neo-Malthusianism’. While
sympathizing with groans about another ‘neo-‘ prefix, in this case it
would have been solidly justified. It’s only through expansion of the
Malthusian insight in accordance with a more general conservation
law that its full current relevance can be appreciated. Classic
Malthus still does far more work than it is credited with, but it
contains a principle of far more penetrating application.
‘Neo-‘ at its most frivolous is merely a mark of fashion. When
employed more seriously, it notes an element of innovation. Its most
significant sense includes not only novelty, but also abstraction.
Something is carried forwards in such a way that its conceptual core
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The qualification “in some shape or other” might have been drawn
from abstract horror, and “premature death” only loosely binds it.
Even so, this formulation remains too narrow, since it tends to
exclude the dysgenic outcome, which we have since learnt is a
dimension of Malthusian expression scarcely less imposing than
resource crisis. A Neo-Malthusian account of the “X” which in some
shape or other makes a grim perversity of all humanity’s efforts to
improve its condition grasps it as a mathematically conserved,
plastic, or abstract destiny, working as remorselessly through
reductions of mortality (Malthusian ‘relaxations’) as through
increases (Malthusian ‘pressures’). Both would count equally as
“checks on population” — each convertible, through a complex
calculus, into the terms of the other. A population dysgenically
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BL
BLOCK
OCK 2 - SOCIAL
DARWINISM
Reality Rules
Wh
Whyy Social Darwinism isn
isn’t
’t going an
anywhere
ywhere
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Discrimination
Bryan Caplan has had two epiphanies, which sum to the conclusion
that — bad as tribalism is — misanthropy is the real problem. His
ineradicable universalism betrays him once again.
It matters little whether people are uniformly judged good or bad.
Far more important is whether such judgment is discriminating.
The central argument of Nietzsche’s The Genealogy of Morals is
clarifying in this regard, not least because it explains how radical
mystification came to dominate the topic. How could there ever
come to be a moral quandary about the value of discrimination?
Considered superficially, it is extremely puzzling.
Differentiation between what is ‘good’ and ‘bad’ requires
discrimination. This is a capability no younger than life itself, which
it serves as an indispensable function. As soon as there is behavior,
there is discrimination between alternatives. One way leads to
survival, the other way leads to death. There is nourishment, or not;
reproduction, or not; safety or predatory menace. Good and bad,
or the discrimination between them (which is the same thing), are
etched primordially into any world that life inhabits. Discrimination
is needed to survive.
The very existence of archaic hominids attests to billions of years
of effective discrimination, between safety and danger, wholesome
and putrid or poisonous food, good mates and less good (or
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August 9, 2013
Coldness
‘Coincidentally’ a number of seemingly unrelated social media
stimuli have conspired to recall this today:
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me are located in the top right corner of the gray box, where it
disappears into the blackness of the Outside.
For the record, these tweets were the principal pincers:
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Scales
From a widely cited defense of the Black Lives Matter synthetic
meme at Reddit:
… societally, we don
don’t
’t pay as much attention to certain people’s
deaths as we do to others. So, currently, we don’t treat all lives as
though they matter equally.
Two points:
(1) Some lives (and deaths) do matter far more than others,
ob
obviously
viously. Everyone knows this, when they’re not high, even if they
usually feel compelled to lie about it. (Some lives, indeed,
characterized by criminality and parasitism, are worth less than
nothing — and even considerably less.) Only bizarre religious ideas
could lead anybody to think the opposite.
(2) Western societies are very rapidly losing the ability to make sane
calls on the point, as exceptional productivity loses its capacity to
inspire attention, and the merely piteous usurps its central cultural
position.
In the absence of adaptive sensibilities, life insurance premiums —
or some equivalent expression of undemonstrative, practical value-
processing — will have to serve as a default.
September 3, 2015
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How Communism W
Works
orks
Really:
Naked mole rats are among the ugliest creatures in the animal
kingdom, and they engage in acts that seem repulsive — such as
eating one another’s, and their own, faeces. … Now researchers have
found one biological motivation for this behaviour. When a queen
mole rat’s subordinates feed on her hormone-filled faeces, the
resulting oestrogen boost causes the beta rats to take care of the
queen’s pups … […] Like bees, naked mole rats live in eusocial
colonies, with only one queen rat and a few males that can
reproduce. The rest of the colony consists of dozens of infertile
subordinates that help with tasks such as foraging and defending
the nest. The subordinate rats also take care of the queen’s pups as
though the babies were their own: they build the nests, lick the pups
and keep them warm with their body heat.
We’re almost there. Hail the New Collectivist Man:
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Twin Disco
Discovveries
Twin studies are the foundation of realism in all subjects pertaining
to human beings (although their implications are wider). They reveal
two crucial pieces of information:
(1) Heredity overwhelms environment in the (rigorous, statistical)
explanation of human psychology, and
(2) Humans are massively predisposed to under-emphasize
hereditary factors in the folk explanation of human psychology
(including their own).
Both points emerge lucidly from Brian Boutwell’s article on twin
research in Quillette:
Based on the results of classical twin studies, it just doesn’t
appear that parenting — whether mom and dad are permissive or
not, read to their kid or not, or whatever else — impacts development
as much as we might like to think. Regarding the cross-validation that
I mentioned, studies examining identical twins separated at birth and
reared apart have repeatedly revealed (in shocking ways) the same
thing: these individuals are remarkably similar when in fact they
should be utterly different (they have completely different
environments, but the same genes). Alternatively, non-biologically
related adopted children (who have no genetic commonalities)
raised together are utterly dissimilar to each other — despite in many
cases having decades of exposure to the same parents and home
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environments.
Without wanting to play down the importance of the parenting
angle, it’s worth bearing in mind that this is a rare zone where it
remains politically acceptable to bring hereditarian findings to the
table. Upsetting parents is still OK, and even vaguely commendable,
so it provides a doorway through which to introduce matters of far
broader significance. The truly critical point, from the perspective of
this blog, is that we should expect a systematic cognitive bias against
the influence of heredity and thus — intellectual integrity demands
— we should lean against it.
There’s an important lesson here:
Children who are spanked (not abused, but spanked) often
experience a host of other problems in life, including psychological
maladjustment and behavioral problems. In a study led by my
colleague J.C. Barnes, we probed this issue in more detail and found
some evidence suggesting that spanking increased the occurrence
of overt bad behavior in children. We could have stopped there. Yet,
we went one step further and attempted to inspect the genetic
influences that were rampant across the measures included in our
study. What we found was that much of the association between the
two variables (spanking and behavior) was attributable to genetic
effects that they had in common. The correlation between spanking
and behavior appeared to reflect the presence of shared genetic
influences cutting across both traits.
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Parents are twin sources of influence. They “pass along two things
to their kids: genes and an environment” — which facilitates the
misattribution of genetic to environmental factors. If you find
yourself regularly spanking your kids, it’s very likely that you’ve
genetically-endowed them with the same spank-worthy
characteristics you have yourself (because you were spanked as a
kid, too, right?). The environmentalist delusion practically leaps out
of this situation, pre-packaged for credulous belief.
See original (of both quotes) for references.
(Don’t just read the whole of Boutwell’s article, read the whole of
Quillette.)
December 2, 2015
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Edited Life
Leonard Eisenberg has created a striking new visualization of the
tree of life.
It’s open about the skew: “All the major and many of the minor
living branches of life are shown on this diagram, but only a few of
those that have gone extinct are shown.”
Extinction is overwhelmingly the deep reality, compared to which
the survival of species — the selected phenomenon — is scarcely
more than a rounding error. Through a reflexive, lucid, secondary
selection the culled, blasted, and gnawed tree of terrestrial life is
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Hell-Bak
Hell-Baked
ed
There’s a potential prologue to this post that I’m reluctant to be
distracted by. It’s introvertedly about NRx, as a cultural mutation,
and the way this is defined by a strategic — or merely ornery —
indifference to deeply-settled modes of ethico-political
condemnation. Terms designed as pathblockers — ‘fascist’ or ‘racist’
most obviously — are stepped over, perhaps laughed at, but in any
case, and most importantly, exposed as bearers of a religious terror.
They are signs of a control regime, marking the unthinkable wastes
where be dragons, effective precisely insofar as they cannot be
entertained. ‘Satanic’ was once such a word (before it became a joke).
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CHAPTER TWO - D
DYSGENICS
YSGENICS
Ruin
What does Dark Enlightenment see when it scrutinizes our world?
This. (Exactly
Exactly this.)
Charlton is Right …
… on this question, at least. The sole real puzzle is the precise
quantity of dysgenic deterioration that has taken place in Western
societies over the last 150 years, or more. Charlton estimates a one
SD decline over this period in the UK, which seems entirely credible.
Due to the small sample size, his argument from mathematical
excellence has an inevitable anecdotal quality, but it would be hard
to contest its general direction.
A fascinating paper by Michael A. Woodley (via @intelligenceres)
is able to be more comprehensively persuasive. Its second table
describes the innovation rate per capita across a sample of
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March 7, 2014
The W
Worst
orst Question
At news aggregator Real Clear World, Frank Ching’s recent article
comparing the economic performance of the earth’s two
demographic giants was given the tantalizing headline Why India
Keeps Falling Behind China. There’s no sign of the “Why?” at the
original, published in Taiwan’s China Post. No surprise there.
As Ching notes:
While India and China are both being hailed as rapidly developing
emerging markets, the gap between the two countries is widening
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Dysgenic Reactions
Michael A. Woodley, Jan te Nijenhuis, and Raegan Murphy respond
(in detail) to critics of their 2013 paper on the dysgenic implications
of Galton’s reaction time data. Their adjusted evidence indicates an
increase in reaction times among US/UK males over the period
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Counter-Dysgenics
Heartiste (finally) discovers Weiss.
Of Heartiste’s six proposed policy responses, #2 (introduce
counter-dysgenic incentives) is the only one this blog endorse
without reservation. High-IQ immigration, assortative mating, and
open markets all make a positive contribution to general social
competitiveness, although due theoretical deference to IQ-Shredder
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August 2, 2014
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Crime Think
It doesn’t get much clearer than this. Any policy decisions resulting in
a reduction of mean IQ within a society are implicit choices to raise
the level of criminality. If there’s wriggle room on the point, this blog
isn’t seeing it.
The clearest takeaway from this research is that low intelligence
is a strong and consistent correlate of criminal offending. For
example, the risk of acquiring a felony conviction by age 21 is nearly
four times (3.6) higher among those in the three lowest categories
(1–3) of total intelligence as compared to those scoring in the top
three categories (7–9). We observed differences of similar
magnitude across each indicator of criminal offending and
regardless of the measure of intelligence.
(Via.)
No-Br
No-Brainer
ainer
“Getting rid of your brain sounds like a bad idea.”
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Going Down
Yes, the United States is undergoing a triple-pronged dysgenic
process.
The only serious questions are about speed.
May 9, 2017
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April 7, 2014
Chinese Eugenics
A Shanghaiist interview with Leta Hong Fincher wanders into
inspiring delicate territory:
… in 2007, China’s State Council came out with a very important
population decision. They announced that China had a severe
problem with the so-called “low quality” of the population, that it’s
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they need to stop this trend. They have to get these educated women
to get married and have a child because they see this as the basic
function of a woman. Her duty to the nation is to have a child. But
they are focusing on educated women. They’re not encouraging the
illiterate rural woman to have children, because those women are
considered to be of “low quality”.
This elementary common sense is supposed to be appalling
beyond comprehension, of course.
ADDED: Bernard Harcourt on Michel Foucault on Gary Becker —
Now, Foucault refers to this … specific danger around page 228 of
the English translation of his lectures when he talks about eugenics,
the problem of eugenics. And he says, “as soon as a society poses
itself the problem of the improvement of its human capital in
general,” that is, once we have a theory of human capital, and once
we view the important issue as being improvement of human capital,
that “it is inevitable that the problem of control, screening, and
improvement of the human capital of individuals … [is] called for.”
May 6, 2014
Reality Bo
Boxxes
Acknowledgement of a conservation law is typically a reliable
indication of realistic analysis. There’s a notable example here
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Ideological Speciation
It’s happening.
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(Bring it on.)
Hyper-Racism
While this blog generally seeks to spread dismay whenever the
opportunity arises, it cannot pretend to a huge obsession with what
might be described as ordinary racism. When perusing the thought-
crimes of the mainstream racist community, it is continually afflicted
by a sense of overwhelming unreality. This is not (of course), because
races do not exist, or do not differ significantly, or … whatever. The
most politically incorrect cognitive position on almost every point of
this kind is reliably closer to reality than its more socially-convenient
and comforting alternatives.
The problem with ordinary racism is its utter incomprehension of
the near future. Not only will capabilities for genomic manipulation
dissolve biological identity into techno-commercial processes of yet-
incomprehensible radicality, but also … other things.
First, a sketch of the existing racism-antiracism contention in its
commonplace or dominant form. The antiracist, or universal
humanist position — when extracted from its most idiotic social-
constructivist and hypocritical alt-racist expressions — amounts to a
program for global genetic pooling. Cultural barriers to the Utopian
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the population (just as Puritans do in the US), and the Loonies might
continue to have inordinate amounts of the right stuff indefinitely.
As a scientific sort, Cochran is exploring this scenario as a
potential source of compelling hereditarian evidence (anticipated
through thought experiment). What, however, of the prospect itself,
as the illustration of a mechanism that lends itself to theoretical
generalization? One might discuss it in terms of ordinary racism, as
a zone of disparate impact (which it would almost certainly be). Yet
this is only to scratch at it, hazily and superficially.
The most prominent model of such a filter is found in the theory
of assortative mating. Strictly speaking, the racial-preservationist
culture advocated by ordinary racism is an example of assortative
mating, with a criterion of genetic proximity filtering potential
matches. This is not why the idea has such currency. It is assortative
mating on the basis of SES that has lifted it to prominence, both
because it seems unquestionably to be happening, and because the
implications of its happening are extreme. (Crucially, SES is a strong
proxy for IQ.)
Assortative mating tends to genetic diversification. This is neither
the preserved diversity of ordinary racism, still less the idealized
genetic pooling of the anti-racists, but a class-structured mechanism
for population diremption, on a vector towards neo-speciation. It
implies the disintegration of the human species, along largely
unprecedented lines, with intrinsic hierarchical consequence. The
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Stereotypes
The Less-Evil Twin hasn’t been on its best behavior recently.
Discussing the prospects for Accelerationism (following this
negative prognosis), it quite innocently suggested:
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(You’ve heard of her, right? It’s a superbly intelligent play off the
Shanzhai idea.)
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(I’ve no idea what secret treasures await extraction from that final
tweet yet.)
Stereotypes II
Meta-stereotypes are not to be trusted. This is two years old, but
recently tweet-linked by Justine Tunney, and well-worth recalling.
The meat and potatoes:
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Stereotypes III
There’s an exchange in Sam Raimi’s movie Oz the Great and
Powerful, where the fake wizard, speculating on the incentives for
success, says to his monkey(ish) companion and servant Finley:
“We’re going to find this wicked witch. Steal her wand. I’ll get that
big pile of gold. And you can have a nice pile of bananas, alright?”
“Bananas. Oh, I see, because I’m a monkey? I must love bananas,
right? — That is a vicious stereotype.”
“You don’t like bananas?”
“Of course I love bananas. I’m a monkey. Don’t be ridiculous. I just
don’t like you saying it …”
(I seem to remember Sailer citing a similar joke at some point —
probably from a more reputable source.)
Stereotypes IV
Folk Wisdom is a thing:
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CHAPTER FIVE - RA
RACES
CES
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July 4, 2013
Fiv
Fivee Stages of HBD
Stage-1 (Denial): “What is this naziish-sounding “HBD” of which you
speak? Actually, I’d rather you didn’t answer that.”
Stage-2 (Anger): “RAAAAAAACISSSST!!!”
Stage-3 (Bargaining): “… but even if HBD is real, it doesn’t mean
anything, does it? You know, comparative advantage, or
postmodernism … (or something).”
Stage-4 (Depression): “Who could possibly have imagined that
reality was so evil?”
Stage-5 (Acceptance): “Blank slate liberalism really has been a
mountain of dishonest garbage, hasn’t it? Guess it’s time for it to die
…”
[Thanks to Thales for the prompt]
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pretty good job at dealing with the situation, when left alone to do so,
and certainly no superior arrangement presents itself. Best of all, you
don’t even need to pull your jackboots on to let things work. So chill
(except that’s increasingly illegal).
ADDED: A link worth noting.
ADDED: Panic! (Some smart comments to the initial froth-post.)
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Bell-Curv
Bell-Curvee of the Apes
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The Prussian
If you’d asked me what I think about The Prussian yesterday, I’d
probably have assumed you were talking about Frederick the Great.
Today I’m seeing his stuff mentioned all over the place (at least, by
Bryce on Twitter, and Scott Alexander at his place). The two pieces
being especially recommended share a tack (interesting) and a tone
(impressive). The Outside in response to both is unsettled, but
already uneven. At the very least, they initiate a conversation in a
way that is unexpected and worthy of respect.
The highlight for me was this (to repeat the second link):
… when differences in African and Caucasian distributions of the
ASPM gene that is involved in brain development, racialists jumped
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to argue that this was the long looked for basis for white cognitive
supremacy (Derbyshire’s line). Unfortunately for them, it turned out
that the variation does not affect IQ, but does affect the ability to
hear tones, and is associated with a lack of tonal languages.
To be honest, this is a lot more interesting than any IQ mumbo-
jumbo; that Indo-European languages (‘Aryan’ languages to use the
term correctly, and not in the disgraceful way it was used) are non-
tonal is one of the big puzzles, and may be a reason why civilization
got started in these regions. This is a variant of Joseph Needham’s
hypothesis of why China ‘got stuck’ at a certain level of technology.
Needham argued that the Chinese failed to make the break to the
conceptual level of science that the ancient Greeks did, and part
of this is to do with the concrete-level of Chinese vocabulary. By
contrast, the reduced sound range and hence, reduced word range
available to Indo-European languages may have played a crucial role
in making that initial great breakthrough.
Has the case just been made for a clearly identifiable genetic
predisposition to digitization? It sounds that way to me.
ADDED: Theden gets serious on the genetics of tonal language.
ADDED: A critique of the Anti-Racialist Q&A at The Right Stuff.
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Escalation
Steve Sailer doesn’t ask whether there are any two human races
further apart than wolves and coyotes, because he’s a nice guy.
Demogr
Demograph
aphyy is Destin
Destinyy
For a blast of sudden, icy clarity, this is worth recalling:
After decades of American Ed theorists and politicians grumbling
about our low ranking on international tests, we now know that, as
Steve Sailer summarized in 2010, reviewing the PISA (Program for
International Student Assessment) results from the previous year:
* Asian Americans outscored every Asian country, and lost out only
to the city of Shanghai, China’s financial capital.
* White Americans students outperformed the national average in
every one of the 37 historically white countries tested, except
Finland (which is, perhaps not coincidentally, an immigration
restrictionist nation where whites make up about 99 percent of the
population).
* Hispanic Americans beat all eight Latin American countries.
* African Americans would likely have outscored any sub-Saharan
country, if any had bothered to compete. The closest thing to a black
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April 4, 2017
White to Red
Guilt is basically a North-West European thing, argues Peter Frost.
That would certainly explain the conspicuous abnormality of white
ethnomasochism, which has a claim to be the social fact of greatest
significance in the world today. There’s a certain type of fanatically
universalist moral argument that — even when encountered
anonymously on the Internet — indicates (absolutely reliably) that
one is dealing with a self-hating pale-face. When someone tells you
that some incontestable principle requires self-sacrifice without
reservation to the wretched global Other, the obvious melanin
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December 8, 2013
White F
Fright
right
Racial fear is a complicated thing. It’s worth trying to break it down,
without blinking too much.
As one regresses through history, and into pre-history, the
pattern of encounters between large-scale human groups of
markedly distinct ancestry is modeled — with ever-greater fidelity —
upon a genocidal ideal. The ‘other’ needs to be killed, or at the very
least broken in its otherness. To butcher all males, beginning with
those of military age, and then assimilate the females as breeding
stock might suffice as a solution (Yahweh specifically warns the
ancient Hebrews against such half-hearted measures). Anything less
is sheer procrastination. When economic imperatives and high levels
of civilizational confidence start to overwhelm more primordial
considerations, it is possible for the suppression of other peoples to
take the humanized form of social obliteration combined with mass
enslavement, but such softness is a comparatively recent
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Mitochondrial Ev
Evee
Without wanting to set off the usual suspects, this research into
Ashkenazi ancestry is fascinating. Based on MtDNA analysis, it is
evident that: “Overall, at least 80 percent of Ashkenazi maternal
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October 9, 2013
On the JQ
Colin Liddell, amid an impressively cool-headed discussion of John
Engelman and racial neuralgia:
Jared Taylor is trying very, very hard to avoid the Jewish question.
Naturally I disagree with this, but I can understand why Taylor wishes
to do so, as the Jewish Question has become a kind of lightning rod
for a lot of angst and rage in our society that does not have the time,
sophistication, or emotional equilibrium to attain to a more complex
understanding of the challenges of modernity.
Whatever one’s opinion on the JQ, it is important as the marker
for a still intellectually under-developed schism, dividing the
meritocratic and tribalistic strains of HBD. This blog is
surreptitiously sympathetic to WN claims that it is being
systematically evaded on the Right out of evasive cowardice. The
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main reason for this evasion is that anti-semitic WNs tend to be over-
excitable, inarticulate proles, whose commentary — to quote Liddell
— is characterized by “humourless, droning, brittle outrage” if not
outright splenetic abuse. (In fairness, I have to note that on the rare
occasions when extreme anti-semites have visited this blog, they
have been models of calm lucidity, however lop-sided in their
attention.)
The Outside in line on the JQ is well-represented by Moldbug and
Amy Chua. (They’re both smarts-over-loyalty selections of exactly
the kind to raise WN hackles, of course. This isn’t a bhumiputra blog.)
The slight familiarity I have with the work of Yuri Slezkine has also
left a very positive impression.
It’s worth taking the opportunity to link this recent post.
(Feel free to be evil, but be civil — or else.)
ADDED: Yuri Slezkine interviewed (video).
July 3, 2014
Guilt Projection
“This machine breeds fascists.”
Given Jesse Benn’s repulsive indulgence in self-criticism on other
people’s behalf, the riposte almost writes itself. It’s hard to see
anything in the push-back that seems uncalled for.
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September 2, 2015
Tough Asia
Scott Sumner has a good post on the topic, using low government
spending and unemployment (a proxy for “get a job” social attitudes)
as indicators. East Asian countries — China, Hong Kong, Singapore,
South Korea, and Taiwan — do indeed cluster at the ‘hard’ end.
Europeans, predictably, are softies. The Anglosphere (or
“immigrant”) societies are intermediate.
My favorite part of the post, though, was this:
… the great Simon Leys once suggested that 5000 years of
Chinese history could be divided up into two types of periods.
A. Times when the status of the Chinese masses was little better than
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slaves.
B. Periods of turmoil, when the Chinese masses yearned for period A.
Chinese T
Trumpkins
rumpkins
SoBL has passed on this fascinating piece on Trump-fervor in
Chinese elite opinion. It’s all good. Quasi-random snippet:
The past 30 years of China’s economic growth and social
development began after a period of chaos [i.e., the Cultural
Revolution], and there was no Enlightenment-like intellectual
movement. Government officials, in order to mobilize reform,
exaggerated the evils of the old benefit system as “everyone eating
from one big pot,” which, with the assistance of some scholars, led to
an almost complete social consensus that a market economy means
completely free competition. With no restraint from ethics or rules,
the “law of the jungle” that the weak are prey to the strong became
nearly universal in society. Amid all the worship of the strong and
disdain for the weak, an atmosphere of care and equal treatment
of disadvantaged groups has not formed. Therefore “political
correctness,” which is for the protection of vulnerable groups,
basically does not exist in Chinese society, and the language of
discrimination, objectification of women, and mockery of disabled
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SECTION A - CLADISTICS
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Cladistic Meditations
Neoreactionaries have a thing about Puritanism. Whether or not this
trait is conceptually essential is a question for another time. The
important point, right now, is that it serves as a cladistic marker.
Whatever it might be that neoreaction speciates into, it bears this
trait as an indication of cultural ancestry, bookmarking the root-code
archive of Mencius Moldbug.
When reconstructed as an argument, the Moldbuggian clade
proposes a species of ethnographic categorization on a loosely
Darwinian (and strongly evolutionary) model, according to which
cultural phenomena are logically nested, in tree-like fashion,
revealing a pattern of descent. When considering an English
Darwinian Evolutionist, who is also an example of contemporary
political progressivism, Moldbug makes this mode of analysis
explicit:
My belief is that Professor Dawkins is not just a Christian atheist.
He is a Protestant atheist
atheist. And he is not just a Protestant atheist. He
is a Calvinist atheist
atheist. And he is not just a Calvinist atheist. He is an
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Anglo-Calvinist atheist
atheist. In other words, he can be also be described
as a Puritan atheist
atheist, a Dissenter atheist
atheist, a Nonconformist atheist
atheist, an
Evangelical atheist
atheist, etc, etc.
This cladistic taxonomy traces Professor Dawkins’ intellectual
ancestry back about 400 years, to the era of the English Civil War.
Except of course for the atheism theme, Professor Dawkins’ kernel
is a remarkable match for the Ranter, Leveller, Digger, Quaker, Fifth
Monarchist, or any of the more extreme English Dissenter traditions
that flourished during the Cromwellian interregnum.
If there were a Thirty-Nine Articles of neoreaction, some suitably
compressed version of this cladogram would constitute the primary
tenet of the creed. Among the logically most attenuated twigs of this
scheme, sub-speciated to the limit of cladistic definition, is found the
globally-dominant sovereign instance of advanced modernity — the
Cathedral (the enemy).
It is not surprising, therefore, that the ‘Puritan question’ remains
the core preoccupation of the neoreactionary Dark Enlightenment.
This has been illustrated with consummate clarity by an article
posted by J. M. Smith at The Orthosphere, contesting the Christian
genealogy of the Cathedral, and the subsequent rejoinder by
descendants of the neoreactionary clade — of varying religious
persuasions — Jim (here), Foseti (here), and Nick B. Ste Stevves (here,
here, and here). Foseti reacts with some bemusement to the
polemical framing of the Smith text, because what he encounters is
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September 4, 2013
Religious Clades
Peter A. Taylor relayed this magnificent cladogram of world religions:
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Goddamned
That’s roughly Gregory Hood’s title, for an article making the case
for a return to paganism. As his point of departure, Hood examines,
unflinchingly, the indications of an Occidental desire for
enslavement or destruction by Islam. “It’s a kind of ethical exhaustion
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Ethno-Cladistics
The Ethno-cladistic thesis, sketchily reconstructed here from
Mencius Moldbug’s neoreactionary usage, proposes that relations
between cultur
cultural
al systems are captured bbyy cladogr
cladograms
ams to a highly
significant le
levvel of adequacy
adequacy. The limits to this thesis are set by
lateral complications — interchanges and modifications that do not
conform to a pattern of branching descent — and these are by no
means negligible. Nevertheless, actual cultural formations are
dominated by cladistic order. As a consequence, cultural theories
that assume taxonomic regularity as a norm are capable of reaching
potentially realistic approximations, and furthermore offer the only
prospect for the rigorous organization of ethnographic phenomena.
The most direct and central defense of the ethno-cladistic thesis
bypasses the comparatively high-level religious systems that provide
the material for Moldbug’s arguments, and turn instead to the
ethnographic root phenomenon: language. Languages simply are
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September 6, 2013
Pictured P
Power
ower
Couldn’t resist sharing this:
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European V
Vedism
edism
Whilst dazzlingly ignorant about Julius Evola, I can at least partially
understand the attraction his work generates for the ultra-
traditionalist wing of the Outer Right. Thomas F. Bertonneau, whose
essays are always worth digesting carefully, produces a typically
masterful overview here.
Evola represents a significant thread of early 20th century
reactionary thinking, rooted in the discoveries of historical
linguistics, and the intellectual formation of an ‘Indo-European’
people corresponding to its deep cultural cladistics. The core
phenomenon that supports the mystical-reactionary interpretation
of history is the unambiguous process of crudification that afflicts
the Indo-European languages, evident through the line of
grammatical degeneration from Sanskrit, through Attic Greek, to
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November 2, 2013
Range Finders
A politically-incorrect short history of the Wild West. (Jim at his
rough realist best.)
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Thedes
The formulation of this concept was a building-block moment for
NRx, but the trend in its usage has been dismally regressive.
Apparently devised as a tool for the analysis of social identities, it
is increasingly invoked as a rallying-cry for neo–tribalism. From the
perspective of Outside in, it will soon become entirely toxic unless it
is dramatically clarified.
Nydwracu initially employs the word ‘thede’ to designate the
substance of group identity, “a superindividual grouping that its
constituent individuals feel affiliation with and (therefore?) positive
estimates of.” Thedes are multiple, overlapping, sometimes
concentric, and honed by antagonistic in-group/out-group
determinations. They are seen as following from the understanding
that “Man is a social animal.” Ideological arguments disguise thede
conflicts. At this level of abstraction, there is little to find
objectionable.
In his essay on Natural Law, Jim writes:
Man is a rational animal, a social animal, a property owning
animal, and a maker of things. He is social in the way that wolves
and penguins are social, not social in the way that bees are social.
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The kind of society that is right for bees, a totalitarian society, is not
right for people. In the language of sociobiology, humans are social,
but not eusocial. Natural law follows from the nature of men, from
the kind of animal that we are. We have the right to life, liberty and
property, the right to defend ourselves against those who would rob,
enslave, or kill us, because of the kind of animal that we are.
Occupying a band of group integration between ants and tigers,
humans have intermediate sociality. Even the tightest mode of
human social organization is loose relative to an ant colony, and even
the loosest is tight relative to a solitary feline. In human societies,
neither collectivity nor individuality is ever absolute, and — even
though these ‘poles’ are commonly exaggerated for polemical
purposes — they realistically apply only to a range of group
integrations (which is both narrow and significantly differentiated).
To say that “man is a social animal” does not mean that collectivity is
the fundamental human truth, any more than the opposite. It means
that man is a creature of the middle (and the middle has a span).
Insofar as a thede corresponds to a unit of autonomous,
reproducible social organization, it is a far narrower concept than
the one Nydwracu outlines. A thede is an ethnicity if it describes a
real — rather than merely conventional — unit of human population.
This is, of course, to exclude a great variety of identity dimensions,
including sex, sexual orientation, age, interests, star signs … as well
as some of those Nydwracu mentions (musical subcultures and
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‘Phyle’ is good.
ADDED: Valuable consolidation (and criticism) at Nydwracu’s
place.
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Genetic Interests
‘n/a’ provided a link to Frank Salter’s On Genetic Interests. (Available
in a variety of formats.)
That gift follows from the latest exchange on the topic, based on
this Jayman post. Some (Salterian) contention from Pumpkin Person
(here) and n/a (here). It’s a fascinating discussion, that has divided
Cochran and Harpending, which is an indication of its seriousness.
Sadly — if understandably — it tends to generate massive rancor
very quickly, as is evident in the tone of some of these posts. That’s
especially unfortunate because, heated race politics aside, there’s a
massive amount of philosophical substance underlying it. (Maximum
coldness would certainly be appreciated here.)
A suggestive remark from Salter (p.28), on the disrupted
equilibrium between ‘ultimate’ and ‘proximate’ interests (a crucial
and thought-provoking distinction):
The equilibrium applying to humans has been upset in recent
generations, so that we can no longer rely on subjectively designated
proximate interests to serve our ultimate interest. We must rely
more on science to perceive the causal links between the things we
value and formulate synthetic goals based on that rational appraisal.
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August 3, 2015
Fish P
People
eople
Since the opportunities for XS to agree (in advance) with PZ Myers
don’t come along too regularly, it’s worth seizing upon those that do.
For anyone who thinks cladistics are important, this point is worth
strongly defending:
There are multiple meanings of “fish”. We can use it to refer to
specific species or an extant category of animals: salmon are fish,
halibut are fish, herring are fish. No one objects to that, and they
all understand that if I said “humans are still salmon”, that would be
wrong. […] But another way the term is used is as a descriptor for
a clade. A taxonomic clade is a “grouping that includes a common
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July 6, 2016
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Luciano P
Pellicani
ellicani
Mark Warburton passed this masterpiece along (Revolutionary
Apocalypse, by Luciano Pellicani). A couple of tiny morsels from its
consistently brilliant — and eerily familiar — analysis:
With Puritanism, an absolutely new element was introduced into
Western civilisation: (re
(revvolutionary) politics as fulfillment of God’s
will
will, with the objective of consciously building “a new human
community, that could substitute the lost Eden” and produce a
prodigious “change in human nature.” For centuries, politics had been
conceived as a “cybernetic art” (Plato) or as a technique for the
accumulation of power (Machiavelli). From the Puritan cultural
revolution on, politics was conceived as a soteriological pr practice
actice,
dominated by an eschatological tension toward the Kingdom of God
on earth
earth, therefore as a calling, whose methodical objective was to
overturn the world in order to purify it. The slogan originally used by
the Taborites and the Anabaptists was revived: “Permanent warfare
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January 3, 2014
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Ultr
Ultra-Calvinism
a-Calvinism
JayMan chips in (succinctly and lucidly) to a familiar topic (or,
perhaps, two):
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March 3, 2015
Ultr
Ultra-Calvinism
a-Calvinism II
The XS Inner Council doesn’t get as much time to study hardcore
Ultra-Calvinist Theonomy as it would like, but Rushdoony’s Politics
of Guilt and Pity (full-text available free online) is looking truly
awesome so far. A couple of early snippets:
The reality of man apart from Christ is guilt and masochism. And
guilt and masochism involve an unshakeable inner slavery which
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governs the total life of the non-Christian. The politics of the anti-
christian will thus inescapably be the politics of guilt
guilt. In the politics
of guilt, man is perpetually drained in his social energy and cultural
activity by his over-riding sense of guilt and his masochistic activity.
He will progressively demand of the state a redemptive role. What
he cannot do personally, i.e., to save himself, he demands that the
state do for him, so that the state, as man enlarged, becomes the
human savior of man. The politics of guilt, therefore, is not directed,
as the Christian politics of liberty, to the creation of godly justice
and order, but to the creation of a redeeming order, a saving state.
Guilt must be projected, therefore, on all those who oppose this new
order and new age. And, because the salvation is mythical, and the
enslavement real, the hatred of life and of innocence grows, and with
it grows the urge to mass destruction.
[…]
In the modern state, in the name of democracy, there is the
increasing pandering to guilt and to the hatred felt by the guilty for
the innocent and for the successful. This then is the full triumph of
the politics of guilt and its open enthronement. For the politics of
guilt, the order of the day is mass destruction. […] Sentimental
humanism asserts that man’s basic need is lo lovve, more specifically, a
passive need to be lo lovved
ed. Thus, man is seen as a passive creature
whose basic problem is not a will to evil but an absence of love, so
that a positive agency must be created to supply man’s needs. The
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Double Predestination
Cladistic inheritance necessitates that I begin talking about the
Calvinist doctrine of Providence here (soon), despite my total
cognitive depravity on the topic. I’ve been reading the Institutes of
the Christian Religion, and around it, but inevitably as if from Mars
(and as a Confucian). It has to be the case that many of the visitors
here are vastly more intellectually fluent on the subject, so any
anticipatory comments will be hungrily seized upon.
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Progress (IV)
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CHAPTER FOUR - AL
ALTERNA
TERNATE
TE P
PA
ATHS
Salience Preference
November 1, 2014
Crypto-Br
Crypto-Brahmins
ahmins
Poseidon Awoke has a great post up about the class characteristics
of neoreaction. It’s bound to generate a lot of discussion. Much of it
is irresistibly persuasive. You’ll want to read it.
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June 6, 2014
Quantum Suicide
This stuff is excellent Frightday night material (a relatively old but
appropriately sensationalist link). It’s the Outside in candidate for
a conceivable postmodern religion, channeling video game ontology
into an off-the-cliff practice of the numinous. It has to be a better
place to look than Odinist revival (which it might ultimately eat).
QS fanatics would merit an argument, and better still, they’d be
immunized against it.
NRx would find a lot to talk about with these folks — until they
pulled the trigger. For instance: Exit. Imagine a near-future world
in which political disputes were dominated by QS cults. It would be
remarkably tolerant of electoral processes, whose defects would
have been made a matter of indifference. Divide the social body on
the issue of greatest political rancor, and submit the contest to a
‘resolution’ procedure with significant probabilistic input. Whoever
loses terminates themselves, in ‘this’ sector of the multiverse. The
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Sore LLosers
osers
Following the recent publication of Our Wound Is Not So Recent,
Alain Badiou’s analysis of the 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris, Nick
Land detects a residue of ‘Frenchness’ in Badiou’s universalism,
reconfigures the battlefield of the future, and plays devil’s advocate
for globalised capitalism
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for nothing’.) ‘What counts is the choice they have made about their
frustration’ (we decide). ‘And they will rally to the mixture of
corruption and sacrificial and criminal heroism because of the
subjectivity that is theirs, not because of their Islamic conviction.
What is more, we have been able to see that, in most cases,
islamization is terminal rather than inaugural.’ Nihilistic individuals,
seduced into ‘fascism’, articulating their motivations in words that
count for nothing, pathetic existentialist communists with false
consciousness, malicious punks…if there are some further resources
of contempt that might be added to this analysis, they will not be
easy to find. Which is not at all to suggest that we encounter anything
problematic here, or in need of rectification.
It could easily have been some other faith that provided this
‘terminus’, we are expected to accept (unless the concession to ‘a
suitably anti-Western referent’ is the clue to a more persuasive—and
decorously unspoken—claim). All right, we accept. For the sake of
moving forward, we accept it, despite the extraordinary deformation
of historical evidence required to do so. Let us pretend that our
Jihadi ‘fascists’ are only randomly differentiated from Buddhists or
Confucians, in order to proceed to the identities that more
immediately concern us.
Those dead Parisian youngsters cannot be ‘counted for nothing’
quite so easily. They would have certainly done some capitalism,
even despite themselves, and also – being young and French—quite
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let’s say, 1976. […] But all that’s over. It’s over. France can
no longer be represented today in any credible way as the
privileged site of a revolutionary tradition. Rather, it is
characterised by a singular collection of identitarian
intellectuals.
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1. http://www.theglobalist.com/france-and-globalization/.
2016
Rhizomes
After the counter-revolution, when the most ludicrous Lysenkoists
have been cast down from power, it will be necessary to undertake
a scrupulous examination of horizontal genetic transfer. Among the
stream of data received from Existoon on the topic, this line of
inquiry is definitely notable. The phenomenon in question is
introduced well here:
Within our bodies resides a dynamic population of microbes
forming a symbiotic super-organism with whom we have co-evolved.
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BL
BLOCK
OCK 3 - POLITICAL
THEORY
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On P
Power
ower
Power is an Idea. It is exactly what it is thought to be.
Even among pre-civilized social animals, where the temptation
to confuse power with force is strongest, the need to demonstrate
force is only sporadic, and wherever force is not continuously
demonstrated, power has arisen.
That is how dominance distinguishes itself from predation. On
occasions, no doubt, a predator dominates its prey, convincing a
struggling herbivore that resistance is futile, and its passage into
nourishment is already, virtually, over. Even in these cases, however,
a predator does not seek to install an enduring dominion. It matters
not at all that its command of irresistible force be recognized beyond
the moment of destruction. There is no social relationship to
establish.
Even the most rudimentary society requires something more. The
economy of force has to be institutionalized, and power — perfectly
coincident with the Idea of power — is born. When power is tested,
driven to resort to force, or regress to it, the idea has already slipped,
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On Chaos
Turbulence is nonlinear dynamism, so remarking upon it very quickly
becomes reflexive. In any conflict, an emergent meta-conflict divides
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those who embrace and reject the conflict as such, and ‘meta’ is in
reality reflexivity, partially apprehended. So ignore the sides of the
war, momentarily. What about war?
Moldbug really doesn’t like it. The closest he ever comes to a
wholly-arbitrary axiom — comparable, at least superficially, to the
libertarian Non-Aggression Principle — is exhibited in this context.
Following some preliminary remarks, his first exposition of the
formalist ideology begins: “The basic idea of formalism is just that
the main problem in human affairs is violence.” As with Hobbes, the
horror of war is the foundation of political philosophy.
This is by no means a trivial decision. With avoidance of war
identified as the fundamental principle of political order, an ultimate
criterion of (secular) value is erected, in simultaneity with a
framework of genetic and structural explanation. Good government
is defined as an effective process of pacification, attaining
successively more highly-tranquilized levels (and stages) of order:
… there are four levels of sovereign security. These are peace,
order, law, and freedom. Once you have each one, you can work on
the next. But it makes no sense to speak of order without peace, law
without order, or freedom without law.
Peace is simply the absence of war. The Dictator’s first goal is to
achieve peace, preferably honorably and with victory. There is no
telling what wars New California will be embroiled in at the time of
its birth, so I will decline to discuss the matter further. But in war, of
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course, there is no order; war is pure chaos. Thus we see our first rule
of hierarchy.
In this model order and chaos are strictly reciprocal. Suppression
of chaos and establishment of order are alternative, inter-
changeable formulations of the same basic political reality. There
is no productivity proper to government other than the ‘good war’
directed against the Cthulhu-current of chaos, violence, conflict,
turmoil, and inarticulate anarchy.
No surprise, then, that widespread dismay results from outbreaks
of conflict across the digital tracts of neoreaction. How could any
Moldbug sympathizer — or other right-oriented observer — not
recognize in these skirmishes the signs of anarcho-chaotic
disturbance, as if the diseased tentacles of Cthulhu were insinuated
abominably into the refuge of well-ordered sociability? Beyond the
protagonists themselves, such scraps trigger a near-universal clamor
for immediate and unconditional peace: Forget about who is right
and who wrong, the conflict itself is wrong.
I don’t think so.
Entropy is toxic, but entropy production is roughly synonymous
with intelligence. A dynamically innovative order, of any kind, does
not suppress the production of entropy — it instantiates an efficient
mechanism for entropy dissipation. Any quasi-Darwinian system —
i.e. any machinery that actually works — is nourished by chaos,
exactly insofar as it is able to rid itself of failed experiments. The
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Politics
Following a typical HBD Bibliography twitter intervention
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The error of mistaking this expert hooting for the first step in an
argument was too tempting to resist. After all, if a professor of Global
Liberal Studies deigns to teach you about the limits of possible
biological understanding, it is only polite to listen attentively.
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Order and V
Value
alue
A piece of machinery that reduces (local) disorder has value. It might
be a functional police force, a catallactic economic arrangement, or
a sociopolitical mechanism implementing dynamic geography (or
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March 7, 2016
Wealth Space
From Szabo’s critically-important exploration of collectibles:
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September 3, 2016
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Pattern Recognition
There has been enough productive history to know what functional
social systems look like, and the basic common factor is obvious.
Institutions advance by substituting for trust.
(To the extent we still have any of these things …)
— We have market capitalism because businesspeople can’t be
trusted.
— We have experimental science because neither truth intuitions
nor scientists can be trusted.
— We have constitutional republicanism because neither political
leaders nor the citizenry can be trusted.
— We have freedom of conscience because priests can’t be trusted.
— We have common law because neither legislators nor judges can
be trusted.
— We have the blogosphere because the media can’t be trusted.
— We have gold coins buried in the garden because bankers can’t be
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trusted.
— We have basements packed with semi-automatic rifles because
state law enforcement can’t be trusted.
Siding with intelligence has nothing at all to do with trusting,
liking, or respecting intelligent people. It is intelligent people,
typically, who run the engines of stupidity. ‘Trust, but
verify‘ is politely euphemistic, and — in truth — wholly inadequate.
Distrust, and test, test, test … to destruction wherever possible.
Three theses:
(1) The robust sophistication (or design quality) of any society or
social institution is inversely proportional to the the trust it
demands. This is not, of course, to be confused with the trust it earns.
(2) In any society capable of institution building, distrust is the
principal driver of innovation. Systematization and automation, in
general, incarnate distrust.
(3) Productive distrust reaches its apotheosis in the Internet, which
routes around everything and everybody that has ever been
believed.
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freakery, yes.
— pete wolfendale (@deontologistics) May 24, 2014
***
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***
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Counterfactual Cyberspace
Internet retro-futurism is taken to a whole new level by Andrew L.
Russell:
What happened to the “beautiful dream” [of Open Systems
Interconnection]? While the Internet’s triumphant story has been
well documented by its designers and the historians they have
worked with, OSI has been forgotten by all but a handful of veterans
of the Internet-OSI standards wars. To understand why, we need to
dive into the early history of computer networking, a time when the
vexing problems of digital convergence and global interconnection
were very much on the minds of computer scientists, telecom
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December 8, 2014
Distrust
Ev ery public institution of an
Every anyy value is based on distrust
distrust.
That’s an elementary proposition, as far as this blog is concerned.
It’s worth stating nakedly, since it is probably less obvious to others.
That much follows from it is unlikely to be controversial, even among
those who find it less than compelling, or simply repulsive.
One major source of obscurity is the category of ‘high trust
cultures’ — with which neoreactionaries tend naturally to identify.
There is plenty to puzzle over here, admittedly. This post will make
no serious effort to even scratch the surface of the questions that
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Trust W
Webs
ebs
The systems of governance native to the Internet Epoch are going
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Quotable (#67)
Private property has no real legitimacy, argues David Graeber:
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March 7, 2015
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Con
Convvergence
Haidt: “We argue that the social conditions that promote complaints
of oppression and victimization overlap with those that promote
case-building attempts to attr
attract
act third parties
parties. When such social
conditions are all present in high degrees, the result is a culture of
victimhood in which individuals and groups display high sensitivity
to slight, have a tendency to handle conflicts through complaints to
third parties
parties, and seek to cultivate an image of being victims who
deserve assistance.”
Bitcoin: “What is needed is an electronic payment system based
on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing
parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a
trusted third party
party.”
(XS emphasis in both.)
Insignificant coincidence? Or a key to the crucial conflict nodes of
the 21st century?
This is the thesis I’m tempted by:
September 9, 2015
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Age of F
Frragmentation
More inflection point material, this time macro-political, and Europe-
focused, beginning:
Perhaps the greatest academic growth area over the past twenty
years or so has been “European integration studies”, a field that has
both analysed and boosted support for the European “project”.
Almost all of its practitioners have proceeded from the assumption
that the process of integration is – must be – “irreversible”. It is the
intellectual equivalent of the principle of the European acquis
communautaire by which powers, once surrendered or pooled,
cannot be retrieved. Or, more unkindly, one might see it as a
“European Brezhnev doctrine”, by which socialism, being inevitable,
could not be allowed to fail in any country in which it was already
established.
But what if this is not so? What if, as the Croatian political scientist
Josip Glaurdic, an expert on the collapse of Yugoslavia, once quipped,
what we really need is a school of “European disintegration studies”?
…
(Don’t be put off by the leftist publication credentials from
reading the whole thing.)
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Proposition Nations
Xenosystems likes proposition nations so much it wants to see a lot
more of them.
America is a problem for the world for two main (and conflicting)
reasons:
1) Its proposition contains enough productive innovation to be
scary. Independence war, foundational liberalism, constitutionally-
restricted government, and laissez-faire capitalism have been a
memetic-cocktail-from-hell for those in thrall to competitively-
inferior ideas. But, undoing all of this, is the legacy of the American
Civil War (in particular) —
2) The suppression of the propositional principle — i.e.
geopolitical ideological sorting — under an idealization of national
unity. Upon this pyre the liberal tradition has been incinerated, until
it exists only as a charred parody of itself. The Proposition is by now
little more than the State of the Union. Mandatory agreement,
within an undivided territory, is policed by the democratic
mechanism. That we remain one is left as the only strictly axiomatic
propositional content (as the Trump and Sanders presidential
candidacies in their different ways illustrate).
Spatial Metapolitics recommends that America do both Trumpist
ethno-nationalism, and Sanderista democratic socialism, and a large
number of other (more interesting) things, even also more stupid
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ones, if such can be devised. The critical point is the precise inverse
of the late-modern axiom: As long as mandatory unity is dissolved,
ideological tolerance can be extended without definite limit — across
a disintegrated territory.
First-order ideological preferences, elaborated under an
assumption of dominant unity, are a trap entirely irrespective of their
specific content.
Here’s a proposition: Abolish the Union. Only disintegration is
worth doing.
Quotable (#177)
The fatal illusion continues:
If every EU member were prepared to make concessions to the
concerns of others, everyone could emerge better off.
Confusing integration with a global optimization process is the
single most calamitous error of modern times.
July 6, 2016
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March 1, 2017
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Disintegr
Disintegration
ation
According to a certain construction of cultural history, to which the
natural sciences have often seemed attached, religion is essentially
conceived as pre-scientific naturalistic explanation. Seen this way,
religions are comparatively primitive cosmologies. This is what
makes them vulnerable to scientific progress. A Galileo, or a Darwin,
advances into their core territory, mortally wounding them in the
heart. A somewhat sociologically-indistinct notion of “science” is
envisaged as religion’s natural successor.
However plausible (or implausible) this narrative is found to be, it
matters. By way of it, scientific ascendancy acquires its foundational
myth. Crucially, this mythical power does not depend upon any kind
of rigorous scientific validation. No one has ever been under
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inclined to do. Not only sound analogy but also balance, or true
moderation is to be found in doing so. Since, in our contemporary
cultural context the influence of country life has notably receded,
and with it the sense of vivid distinction among cultivated species,
dogs serve us as by far the most illustrative examples.
A world without mongrels would be a poorer world. Mongrels are
often advantaged by special and even superior qualities. The Golden
Doodle, for instance, is as exalted as any canine type that exists. Such
crosses add to the diversity of the world. This is fully consistent with
a basic process through which the world is enriched by diverging dog
breeds, in which “dogs in general” is an increasingly uninformative
category. There is not – yet – any ideology directed to global canine
genetic homogenization.
Diversity is good, which is to say robust, and innovative (at least).
The ecological consensus can be trusted in this regard. Invasive
species are detested because they lower diversity, not because they
raise it. Heterogenesis is at all times the superior ambition. Yet
diversification — the production of diversity — is a peculiarly
neglected topic in our contemporary social sciences. The mantra of
diversity is coupled with almost complete indifference, and even
strategic negligence, in this regard. Obligatory public celebration of
diversity accompanies, and covers, its programmatic practical
extirpation. Mankind, it has been authoritatively decided, is one, and
destined only to be ever more so. Genetic partition is today
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unflinching. The word ‘clade’ is taken from the Greek clados, meaning
branch. A cladogram is an abstract tree. Its articulations are all
branchings. Deleuze & Guattari’s critical engagement with it has
been highly influential. They tell us they are “bored of trees.” The
alternative to arborescence, they propose, is the rhizome — a
network in which every node connects to every other. Appropriately,
the ‘rhizome’ is not itself a taxonomic concept, but a morphological
one. The balanced position is to acknowledge that evolutionary trees
are complemented by ecological webs. Neither is conceivable
without the other. The evolutionary tree is pruned and trained within
ecologies of lateral relations. Phylogeny is overwhelmingly tree-like,
while ontogeny involves far more lateral influence. We will limit
ourselves here, with cryptic brevity, to remarking that
Deleuzoguattarian rhizomatics is rhizomatically connected to Neo-
Darwinism, but it is cladistically Neo-Lamarckian.
[5]
This is a simplification, wormed-through by incoherences and
unprincipled exceptions. Most notably, ad hoc special permissions
are granted to ‘minor’ populations. The notably erratic usage of the
word ‘genocide’ is the most obvious index of this. A closer
construction of the operating formula might be: Population
partitioning is wrong, absolutely and universally, insofar as it secures
the isolation of North-West European populations.
[6]
Bruce Sterling, Alastair Reynolds, and Neal Stephenson among
very many others populate their fictional worlds with radically
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Ideological Space
Does ideological space make more sense when depicted as a triangle
(rather than a line or quadrant)? It certainly helps to explain the room
for controversy on the ‘extreme right’. Having Darwin out there
beyond the edge of the ideologically-thinkable makes a lot of sense,
too.
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disagree (we all agree), but exactly how they disagree — on that
there’s no agreement.
Peter A. Taylor (May 29, 06:15):
The left-right spectrum, in so far as it is an honest attempt to make
sense of the world rather than mere propaganda, looks to me like an
attempt to fit chaos into Procrustes’ bed. … Moldbug loves Carlyle.
Carlyle admired Cromwell. Moldbug hates Cromwell. Chaos.
Spandrell (May 26, 08:28), twists it back to the Trichotomy:
Both the Western Right and the Chinese Right are a loose
combination of traditionalists, nationalists and capitalists. Which
mostly hate each other and never get along when they get any
amount of power.
By this point, however, trichotomous diversity starts to look like a
mirage of integrity. Right and Left are every difference that has ever
been conceived, if not yet, then in the near future. If these signs mean
anything more than the war continues, like the black-and-white
distinction between chess pieces, no one has yet convincingly shown
us why.
Yet perhaps, if Right and Left, apprehended together, mean the
basic modern antagonism, the conflict itself, as an irreducible thing,
will prove to be the source of whatever sense can be found.
[To be continued …]
ADDED: Whatever you do, don’t miss Handle’s systematic
analysis of the question (May 31, 10:09pm below).
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2014 LLessons
essons (#1)
The world war is Bitcoin versus Dugin. Everything else is just messing
around (or, perhaps, tactics).
Populism
Political categories — however plausible they look on paper —
quickly dissolve into senseless noise when applied to modern
historical reality, unless they foreground populism as the critical
discriminating factor. Furthermore, populism is for all practical
purposes already national populism, irrespective of ideological
commitments to the contrary, since super-national popular
constituencies exist only in the feverish brains of Utopian
intellectuals. The Syriza victory in Greece is making all of this
extraordinarily graphic:
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concerned to protect the ‘hard core’ of the state apparatus (it will
be important to keep a watchful eye over whatever cabinet portfolio
it might get). It will be no surprise if its first demands are for the
ministry of defence or public order, though it seems that it will not
get them.” (Relevant predictions from Jim.)
Populism II
David Frum does a good job at explaining why the new populist
upsurge isn’t an intrinsically rightist phenomenon:
They aren’t necessarily superconservative. They often don’t think
in ideological terms at all. But they do strongly feel that life in this
country used to be better for people like them—and they want that
older country back.
You hear from people like them in many other democratic
countries too. Across Europe, populist parties are delivering a
message that combines defense of the welfare state with skepticism
about immigration; that denounces the corruption of parliamentary
democracy and also the risks of global capitalism. Some of these
parties have a leftish flavor, like Italy’s Five Star Movement. Some
are rooted to the right of center, like the U.K. Independence Party.
Some descend from neofascists, like France’s National Front. Others
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Quotable (#197)
This interesting interview with Michael Glennon on “double
government” concludes with one of the most confused self-
abolishing meanderings ever to see print:
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Neuro-P
Neuro-Politics
olitics
Woah:
Darren Schreiber, a political neuroscientist at the University of
Exeter in the United Kingdom, first performed brain scans on 82
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December 4, 2015
Modernity in a Nutshell
Two revolutions:
(1) Techno-economic self-propelling change obsolesces ever
wider swathes of humanity on a steepening curve. Capital (i.e.
techno-commercial synthesis) tendentially autonomizes. For
humans, there are ever more intriguing opportunities for synergistic
attachment, on new terms, but the trend is — to put it very mildly —
‘challenging’.
(2) Jacobin political violence, modeled on the French Revolution,
provides the basis for demands aimed at a redistribution of the
(capitalist) productive spoils through explicit extortion. All socio-
political history in the modern epoch falls into compliance with this
pattern. It coincides quite exactly with ‘democracy’ in its modernist
usage. Universal Basic Income is its natural telos.
To the extent that there has been an equilibrium between these
twin processes, it is coming apart. All the pol-economic innovations
of recent years, on the Left and Right, are indicators of this
accelerating disintegration.
So the options are these:
Both (1) and (2) is the Status Quo (delusion).
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April 8, 2016
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Wagner’s La
Laww
Wagner’s Law is a critical concept for political-philosophy. In the
words of Adolph Wagner (1835–1917, as cited by Wikipedia): “The
advent of modern industrial society will result in increasing political
pressure for social progress and increased allowance for social
consideration by industry.” It thus explains why the right has to be
radical, if it isn’t to be a sad joke, because snowballing socialism is the
‘natural’ trend.
Here‘s Will Wilkinson abasing himself before it abjectly, and
Arnold Kling showing considerably more spine. Also, commentary
from Scott Sumner.
Nothing that falls short of a serious assault upon the real process
formalized by Wagner’s Law merits the label ‘right-wing’.
Conservatism, for instance, is merely decelerated leftism. Wilkinson
is positively enthused by that. The Outer Right is everything that
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definitely isn’t.
What, then, is required to practically defy Wagner’s Law? NRx
abstractly designates the project. Neocameralism goes into the
details.
If XS expected the Alt-Right to break from the modern demotic
meta-regime whose signature is Wagner’s Law, it would celebrate
the fact. It doesn’t, sadly, expect anything of the kind. That’s why the
Alt-Right isn’t ‘us’ or even — strictly speaking — a right-wing political
phenomenon at all.
Trump
rump’s
’s W
Warsa
arsaww Uprising
For supporters and detractors alike, U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s
July 6 speech in Warsaw was immediately recognized as the most
important of his presidency to date. Since so much was crystallized
by it – or perhaps brought to a head – it is impossible to begin making
sense of this event without some preliminary broad-brush outline of
its context.
The new dominant ideological polarity, on both sides of the
Atlantic, exhibits remarkably similar characteristics. Perhaps most
strikingly, it displays the culmination of an ideological-class
inversion, decades in coming, which has aligned the masses – and
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in particular the native working class – with the right, and social
elites with the left. In consequence, populism has been firmly locked
into place as a phenomenon of the right. Even those classical liberal
stances most tightly bound to the advancement of commercial
liberty, and thus most firmly associated with the conservative right,
have not escaped radical scrambling, whether through re-
assessment, marginalization, or complete inversion.
In this new and disconcerting epoch, business interest has ceased
to be any kind of index for right affiliation, and popular opposition to
free-trade no longer defines a substantial bloc on the left. If anything,
the opposite is now true. Those on the left or right (including this
author) who stubbornly maintain that ideological orientation to
capitalism is the fundamental determinant of meaningful political
polarity find themselves cast into a position of unplugged
anachronism. The stunning magnitude of this transition should not
be underestimated.
This is not, of course, a development without alarming precedent.
From at least one perspective – which is by no means necessarily
hysterical – the boundary between right-wing populism and fascism
can be difficult to discern. Insofar as the affective context to Trump’s
speech is concerned, this is without serious question the most
important element.
Many books could be devoted to the new terms of political
controversy, and almost certainly will be. Each of the still-unstable
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The speech was, in this respect among others, a thing of the social
media age, tuned to instantaneous feedback. It manifestly
schmoozed, even by the dismal standards of such orations. The
rapport it struck with its local listeners tipped into collective self-
congratulation. Wow, we really are great seems to have been the
consensus, among all directly involved. To those disinclined to
identify with the speaker and throng in question, this can only have
been annoying. Enemy rallies generally are, as conservatives learnt
during the Obama years. The untroubled self-love of one’s foes,
exuberantly manifested, is a truly horrible thing to see. Naturally
enough, Trump has been no more distressed by this fact than his
predecessor.
There is one further, and indispensable contextual element that
needs to be raised before proceeding to the media reaction – which
was, of course, the deepest level of the event – and that is the ‘Jew
Thing.’ Everyone knows, at some level, we have to start talking about
that, in some way, even those who – entirely understandably – really
don’t want to. Ignoring the topic is a disappearing option, because
there’s no reason, at all, to think it’s going away. Perhaps it was mere
coincidence that Trump’s visit took him deep into holocaust territory,
which, again, nobody really seems to want to mention, even though it
was an explicit thread within his speech. It was, however, structurally
essential to everything that followed. Unmistakably, even as it went
unacknowledged, the Jewish dimension added greatly to the
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maddened enemies blundered into the trap, and were shattered. The
left, for whom of course the West has no right to survive, found itself
ideologically isolated to a degree that was unprecedented under the
present administration. Their tactical allies in the ‘Never-Trump’
conservative establishment evaporated. Hardened Trump skeptics,
such as Rod Dreher, David French, and Jonah Goldberg contributed
their talents to hunting down the fleeing leftist remnants. David
Frum only held his ground in opposition by arguing that Trump was
personally unworthy of his own speech.
Beinart came out of the trauma worst. He will forever be haunted
by his own definition of the matter at stake, which was immediately
judged from all sides to be an unforced production of Alt-Right
propaganda: “The West is a racial and religious term. To be
considered Western, a country must be largely Christian (preferably
Protestant or Catholic) and largely white.” Across social media, much
nodding ensued, from constituencies whose approval he would
surely least appreciate.
Jonah Goldberg refused explicitly to follow what was now so
vividly exhibited as the road of obligate European ethnomasochism
and civilizational self-hatred: “What’s ironic is that Peter’s desk-
pounding outrage about Trump’s talk of the West is oh-so Western.
The West’s tolerance for anti-Western philosophies is a fairly unique
feature of the West itself. We love to beat ourselves up.” Defense of
the West, therefore, is taken up as a cause inclusive even of its critics.
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July 9, 2014
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Slippage
Watch the whole of modern political confusion expose itself in a
micro-tremor:
Locke’s commitment both to voluntary religion and voluntary,
contractual government are mutually reinforcing. Just as people join
and remain in religious communities by their consent, so they enter
and sustain political communities. “Men being, as has been said, by
Nature all free, equal, and independent,” Locke writes in the Second
Treatise
reatise, “no one can be put out of this estate and subjected to the
political power of another without his own consent.” If the members
of a faith community believe their church is failing to uphold its
spiritual responsibilities, the
theyy ha
havve a right to lea
leavve — without fear of
reprisal. Likewise for a political society: If its members believe the
political authority is failing to safeguard their natural rights — their
“lives, liberty, and estates” — it forfeits the right to go
govvern
ern.
(XS emphasis.)
“Likewise”? Yet one leaves a church, but replaces a government.
The fall from liberty into democracy takes only a single false step.
With a little more consistency, the case for Exit-based control of
government would have been solidly made centuries ago
(intrinsically secure against all Rousseauistic perversion). Still, it’s
not too late to do that now.
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Psy
Psycho
cho P
Politics
olitics
Classical liberals are sitting-out the end of the world. Sitting out,
mostly, in the way Norma Bates sat out her son’s exploration of
psychological diversity. Norman would know why she’s not moving, if
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Reignition
Steve Sailer calls it ‘the marriage gap.’ It isn’t small. In the 2012
Presidential Election, married women (in general) broke for Romney
over Obama by 55%, married white women by 63%, and married
white men by 67%. (Romney’s share among black single women was
2%.)
As liberal demographic, political, and social policies have been
entrenched, classical liberals, steering the course of modern social
evolution from a position modestly to the left of the old monarchical
and ecclesiastical establishment, eventually became libertarians,
railing ineffectually against the plunge into socialist tyranny from
the position of a stranded, alienated, and derided outer right.
Throughout the whole of this process, liberalism has consisted –
almost without exception – of white men. These have typically been
white men in denial, admittedly. Across the entire sweep of world
history there has never been a population group more neglectful of
its own privileges. And thus they destroyed themselves.
Anyone who has reached the “Oh, my God, the stereotypes!”
stage with this is onto something. That has been a central part of
the learning process. All the stereotypes are true (basically). That’s
science, too, if it helps, though it rarely does. Unless inflated, or
dogmatized, beyond the range of usefulness as broad
epistemological heuristics, stereotypes have vastly greater
reliability than – for instance – ideologically-motivated cognitive
commitments. What’s more, classical liberals used to know that. It’s
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a Burkean expectation.
Stereotypes are spontaneous social products, like natural
languages, common law, and metallic money. To say all this explains
why classical liberals are conservatives, characterized by a principled
acceptance of the way things have turned out. What had been,
historically, a reasonably sanguine view of centralized state
government was based on how little of it there had ever been. The
mere existence of the gargantuan social-democratic welfarist state
makes such conservative liberalism (or liberal conservatism)
impossible. Radically frustrated revolutionary libertarianism takes
its place.
It’s easy to see what pushes Bates over the edge. He’d thought he
was Normal, but it turns out he’s a WASP. By a further mad twist,
he recognizes the one thing WASPs will never do is defend their
own culture – that’s an essential ethnic tradition. Libertarianism has
been crazily WASPish that way, when he looks at it, which he can’t
for long. It’s an intractable paradox that leads through incoherence
into fragmentation. To have protected his identity would have been
something only another could have done. Perhaps his mother would
look after him? But she’s dead.
The identification of classical liberalism with WASP culture is a
strong approximation. Few socio-historical correlations are more
robust, but the coincidence can only be statistical. There are socialist
WASPs, and classical liberal non-WASPs, although not enough of
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It all makes sense from outside, but for WASP culture itself – which is
to say for liberalism – identity politics is madness. That leaves it with
nowhere to go. The leather-face schizo-Maoism of the contemporary
Anglophone left is not any kind of plausible option, but neither is
anything opening up on the popular right. As the Alt-Right
consolidates its passionate affair with identity, it sounds ever more
like Hubert Védrine. Individualism is derided. Its suspicion of free-
trade owes more to Friedrich List than to the Scottish
Enlightenment. Its criticism of labor arbitrage is often almost
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he killed her – kills anyone like her. Bad thoughts flood in. It’s difficult
to move on, but at least he has confidence in his own inviolable non-
aggression principle. There’s no way it could have been as they say,
because he wouldn’t hurt anyone. Not even a fly.
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SECTION A - REPUBLICANISM
AND CONSTITUTIONS
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CHAPTER ONE - SO
SOVEREIGNTY
VEREIGNTY
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Reignition
In order to take a step back from this vision, towards its foundations,
it is useful to scrutinize its building blocks. When Moldbug defines
property as “any stable structure of monopoly control” what is really
meant by ‘control’? It might seem simple enough. To control
something is to use, or make use of it — to put it to work, such that
a desired outcome is in fact achieved. ‘Property’ would be glossed
as exclusive right of use, or instrumental utilization, conceived with
sufficient breadth to encompass consumption, and perhaps (we will
come to this), donation or exchange.
Complications quickly arise. ‘Control’ in this case would involve
technical competence, or the ability to make something work. If
control requires that one can use something effectively, then it
demands compliance with natural fact (through techno-scientific
understanding and practical skills). Even consumption is a type of
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415
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Most importantly:
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March 3, 2016
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Reignition
greater absurdity.
Something of greater articulacy is clearly called for, but the kernel
would be unchanged. ‘Sovereignty’ is the translation of the
transcendental into the realm of political philosophy. This is why,
even for atheists, the Idea of Divine Right sovereign legitimacy is a
superior point of departure than mere charismatic leadership.
March 8, 2016
Quotable (#176)
Stockman on the limits of power:
The Deep State can control Congress. It can control the state
bureaucracy, Wall Street and Big Business. It can even – usually –
control the voters. But it can’t control the credit cycle.
Cnut the Great is the ancient hero of the Austrians, and Nemesis
is their goddess.
Scale-free Reaction
Kaplan goes full Moldbug:
Unless some force can, against considerable odds, reinstitute
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Transcendental Anarch
Anarchyy
This, from NBS, is perfect.
Asked (by Garrett Gray): “What reason is there to think there’s an
irreducible anarchy between sovereigns?” he responds —
Suppose there is no anarchy between sovereigns. This means
there is a law governing sovereigns. Which means there is a
sovereign over the sovereigns. Which means that the sovereigns
weren’t sovereign. Which is a contradiction. Therefore there IS
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A Republic, If Y
You
ou Can K
Keep
eep It
The interlocking achievements of Kurt Gödel, which revolutionized
the rigorous understanding of logic, arithmetic, and time, are not of a
nature that wins ready popular acclamation. There is nevertheless a
broadly factual story about him that has attained some notable level
of popularity, and it is one that connects suggestively with the core
concerns of his work. At the website of the Institute for Advanced
Study (where Gödel was based from 1940 until his death in 1978),
Oskar Morgenstern’s recollection of the episode in question is
recorded:
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425
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427
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429
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431
Reignition
government, the arguments will not end soon. They are truly ancient,
and illustrated in the Odyssey, by the strategy of binding oneself
against the call of the Sirens. Can Odysseus bind himself? Only
republicans defend the attempt, as Gödel did. All of the others let the
Sirens win. Perhaps they will.
February 1, 2013
The Ro
Royalist
yalist Imper
Imperativ
ative
e
This is an argument I’m really not grasping:
Libertarians are unrealistic because the world was once vastly
freer than it is today, and then progressively rolled down the populist
hill into the present social democratic latrine trench, so “Why would
we expect different results on the second go?” [OK, still following so
far] … thus we need Kings back, because … [we need to catch the
rising tide, after all, the world hasn’t ever been more monarchist than
now? Prussian Neocameralism outlasted Manchester Liberalism?
Royalist institutions have demonstrated their inherent immunity to
the forces of decay? …]
How can reactionaries criticize free republics for falling apart?
Everything reactionaries have ever respected fell apart. Nobody
would be a reactionary if their favored configuration of the world
hadn’t fallen apart.
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essential political bond of the tyrant with the mob, Leviathan with
the people.
Does this ruin refute the constitutional conjecture? Is there really
nothing further to be said in defense of imperfect (but perhaps
improvable) knots? This one came horribly undone. Might there be
other, better ones? Outside in remains obstinately interested in the
problem …
ADDED: Many relevant speculations and insights are to be found
in this article on the practicalities of secession (especially section XI
J, XII, XIII, and XIV). “Since it is important that the AFR [or proposed
American Federal Republic] function as a constitutional republic, one
of the first things it should do is to hold a constitutional convention.
We anticipate that the resulting document will be similar to the
present American constitution, but not identical.” It includes some
(very modest) recommendations to curtail democracy.
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He writes:
Here is the Carlylean roadmap for the Misesian goal.
Spontaneous order, also known as freedom
freedom, is the highest level of a
political pyramid of needs. These needs are: peace, security
security,, la
laww, and
freedom
freedom. To advance order, always work for the next step – without
skipping steps. In a state of war, advance toward peace; in a state of
insecurity, advance toward security; in a state of security, advance
toward law; in a state of law, advance toward freedom.
Alexander Hamilton (Federalist #8) pursues a closely related
argument, in reverse:
Safety from external danger is the most powerful director of
national conduct. Even the ardent love of liberty will, after a time,
give way to its dictates. The violent destruction of life and property
incident to war, the continual effort and alarm attendant on a state
of continual danger, will compel nations the most attached to liberty
to resort for their repose and security to institutions which have a
tendency to destroy their civil and political rights. To be more safe,
they at length become willing to run the risk of being less free.
This pyramidal schema is ‘neat’, but by no means unproblematic.
Like any hierarchical structure operating within a complex, reflexive
field, it invites strange loops which scramble its apparently coherent
order. Even accepting, as realism dictates, that war exists at the most
basic level of social possibility, so that military survival grounds all
‘higher’ elaborations, can we be entirely confident that catallactic
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Casino Ro
Royale
yale
Even prior to the twitterization catastrophe, and the terminal
disintegration of thought into nano-particles, symphonic
orchestration wasn’t obviously emerging as an Outside in core
competence. One unfortunate consequence of this deficiency is that
highly persuasive blogging ideas get endlessly can-kicked, unless
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October 7, 2013
Rules
Foseti and Jim have been conducting an argument in slow motion,
without quite connecting. Much of this has been occurring in
sporadic blog comments, and occasional remarks. It would be very
helpful of me to reconstruct it here, through a series of meticulous
links. I’ll begin by failing at that. (Any assistance offered in piecing it
together, textually, will be highly appreciated.)
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Ne
Next
xt Stage of the Slide
As a prophet of the unfolding calamity, Angelo Codevilla has always
been handicapped by his touching faith in ‘the people’. The ‘country
class’ was already demonstrably unworthy of Goldwater in 1964.
Things are far worse today.
As a guide to the next step in the crack-up, however, there are
few better guides, and his latest ruminations on the disintegration
of the American party system are highly convincing. The death of
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The Unr
Unraaveling
A democracy cannot survive as a permanent form of government. It
can last only until its citizens discover that they can vote themselves
largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority
(who vote) will vote for the candidates promising the greatest
benefits from the public purse, with the result that a democracy will
always collapse from loose fiscal policies, always followed by a
dictatorship. — Macaulay [or the ‘Tytler Calumny‘ (thanks Matt)]
From the Urban Dictionary, Democracy:
1) A common system of government directed by the whims of
mobs and marked by a low tolerance for basic human rights and
common sense; primarily used to incrementally transition a
government ruled by common law (Republic) to a government ruled
by the political law of a few elite (Oligarchy).
As the slide continues, the perennial understanding of anti-
demotic statecraft (and initiatory insight of the new reaction)
appears to be going mainstream. Alex Berezow writes at
Realclearworld‘s The Compass blog:
It’s been a rough few years for democracy. Despite that,
Westerners always seem to assume that the most highly evolved
form of government is democratic. The trouble with that notion is
that, at some point, a majority of voters realize they can vote for
politicians who promise them the most stuff, regardless of whether
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(2) It’s unjust (For soldiers and cops, perhaps, but the deleterious
effects of complication outweigh the benefits of moral nuance)
(3) In the West, at least, Brahmin plutocrats would undo it at the first
opportunity (A sadly plausible prediction — perhaps no Abrahamic
culture is capable of supporting a sane social order, and will always
choose to resolve policing problems through expansion of the
franchise.)
Granting all of these objections, and more, the principle of
commutative tax-politics still provides one very valuable service: it
explains what went wrong. Representational hypertrophy destroyed
the modern constitutional order, based on a one-sided
interpretation of the demand that government be made accountable
for its exactions. Balance (commutativity) might well be
unobtainable, but it isn’t difficult to understand what it would be.
April 2, 2013
The Progr
Program
am
According to Mark Waser, the project of replacing human politicians
with algorithms would yield positive results, far in advance of its
nominal accomplishment. As he concludes: “I think that AI leadership
is a tremendous idea, not the least because the path towards it
necessarily improves human leadership (and civic debate).”
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August 4, 2015
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Protocols
“Protocol governance can come in many forms, these include
bureaucratic rules, literal interpretations of religious texts,
democracy, proposed block chain or P2P governance, statistics
based governance, rule of law, and any other form of governance
which seeks to provide a protocol as being ultimately sovereign as
opposed to ultimate human judgement,” writes NIO.
The meaning of ‘protocol’ here? I’m assuming, until corrected, that
it’s something like: A formalized procedure. If so, it elides a critical
difference, because while “bureaucratic rules, literal interpretations
of religious texts,” and constitutions tell people what to do,
“proposed block chain or P2P governance” doesn’t.
A set of instructions opens itself to derision, if it ‘demands’ human
compliance, without possessing the means to compel it.
Constitutions, laws, and bureaucracies are massively — and
demonstrably — vulnerable to subversion, because they require
what they cannot enforce. It is exactly this problem that has
propelled the development of software protocols that are
intrinsically self-protective. The longest section of Satoshi
Nakamoto’s Bitcoin paper (#11) is devoted to an examination of the
system’s automatic defense capabilities. The problem is a serious and
complicated one, but it is certainly not susceptible to resolution by
armchair philosophizing about the essence of sovereignty, however
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Trichotomocr
richotomocracy
acy
By 2037 the harsh phases of The Upheaval have finally ended.
Western Eurasia is ruined and confused, but the fighting has burnt
out amongst the rubble. In the Far East, the Chinese Confucian
Republic has largely succeeded in restoring order, and is even
enjoying the first wave of renewed prosperity. The Islamic civil war
continues, but — now almost entirely introverted — it is easily
quarantined. No one wants to think too much about what is
happening in Africa.
The territory of the extinct USA is firmly controlled by the
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October 9, 2013
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Lynch La
Laww
This is insanely great (second only to NeoCam for absolute
attractiveness, and arguably more suitable under predominant
rough-and-ready social conditions). First, a little scene-setting:
There is, to the best of my knowledge, no single right and proper
method to construct a gallows. A few elements are common to just
about every design, but the grim carpenters’ flourishes of the
scaffold reflect the tastes of the community and the eye of the
builders. There is always a raised platform; there are always stairs
leading to the platform, usually thirteen; there is always a crossbeam
around which to string the noose; and there is always a trapdoor to
launch the condemned into the hereafter. Beyond that, the timbers
of the frame are a matter of discretion. Supporting braces and thick
beams are common for permanent installations. Temporary gallows
will often rely on a nock rather than a full cleat to hold the bitter end
of the killing rope. A shoreside hanging can even rely on a high tide
and the scuttling claws of the merciless deep to clean up the turgid
mess left by a dead man dancing. …
Then the carpentry of refined-incentives governance:
Me: “I don’t know if they still do it that way, but that’s how it
used to be. What’s more, even speaking up at a rulemoot can be a
death sentence.” It was clear she thought I was pulling her leg. I wish
I was. Tolerance for two-bit tinpot tyrants was running awfully low,
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December 7, 2015
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SEQUENCE i - NEOCAMERALISM
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Meta-Neocamer
Meta-Neocameralism
alism
First thing: “Meta-Neocameralism” isn’t anything new, and it
certainly isn’t anything post-Moldbuggian. It’s no more than
Neocameralism apprehended in its most abstract features, through
the coining of a provisional and dispensable term. (It allows for an
acronym that doesn’t lead to confusions with North Carolina, while
encouraging quite different confusions, which I’m pretending not to
notice.)
Locally (to this blog), the “meta-” is the mark of a prolegomenon*,
to a disciplined discussion of Neocameralism which has later to take
place. Its abstraction is introductory, in accordance with something
that is yet to be re-started, or re-animated, in detail. (For existing
detail, outside the Moldbug canon itself, look here.)
The excellent comment thread here provides at least a couple of
crucial clues:
nydwr acu (23/03/2014 at 6:47 pm): Neocameralism doesn’t
dwracu
answer questions like that [on the specifics of social organization];
instead, it’s a mechanism for answering questions like that. … You can
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ask, “is Coke considered better than RC Cola?”, or you can institute
capitalism and find out. You can ask, “are ethno-nationalist states
considered better than mixed states?”, or you can institute the
patchwork and find out. …
Riv erC (23/03/2014 at 3:44 am): Neo-cameralism is, if viewed in
RiverC
this light, a ‘political system system’, it is not a political system but a
system for implementing political systems. Of course the same guy
who came up with it also invented an operating system (a system for
implementing software systems.)
MNC, then, is not a political prescription, for instance a social
ideal aligned with techno-commercialist preferences. It is an
intellectual framework for examining systems of governance,
theoretically formalized as disposals of sovereign property. The
social formalization of such systems, which Moldbug also advocates,
can be parenthesized within MNC. We are not at this stage
considering the model of a desirable social order, but rather the
abstract model of social order in general, apprehended radically —
at the root — where ‘to rule’ and ‘to own’ lack distinct meanings.
Sovereign property is ‘sovereign’ and ‘primary’ because it is not
merely a claim, but effective possession. (There is much more to
come in later posts on the concept of sovereign property, some
preliminary musings here.)
Because MNC is an extremely powerful piece of cognitive
technology, capable of tackling problems at a number of distinct
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MNC does not tell anybody how to design a society. It says only
that an effective government will necessarily look, to it, like a well-
organized (sovereign) business. To this one can add the riders:
a) Government effectiveness is subject to an external criterion,
provided by a selective trans-state and inter-state mechanism. This
might take the form of Patchwork pressure (Dynamic Geography)
in a civilized order, or military competition in the wolf-prowled
wilderness of Hobbesian chaos.
b) Under these conditions, MNC calculative rationality can be
expected to be compelling for states themselves, whatever their
variety of social form. Some (considerable) convergence upon norms
of economic estimation and arrangement is thus predictable from
the discovered contours of reality. There are things that will fail.
Non-economic values are more easily invoked than pursued.
Foseti (commenting here, 23/03/2014 at 11:59 am) writes:
No one disputes that the goal of society is a good citizenry, but
the question is what sort of government provides that outcome. […]
As best I can tell, we only have two theories of governance that have
been expressed. […] The first is the capitalist. As Adam Smith noted,
the best corporations (by all measures) are the ones that are
operated for clear, measurable and selfish motives. […] The second is
the communist. In this system, corporations are run for the benefit
of everyone in the world. […] Unsurprisingly, corporations run on the
latter principle have found an incredibly large number of ways to
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Eight-P
Eight-Point
oint Neo-Cam
A reminder of where NRx came from:
Let me quickly explain my reactionary theory of history, which
comes from reading weird old forgotten books such as the above.
Note that this theory is quite simple. Depending on your inclinations,
you may regard this as a good thing or a bad thing.
In order to get to the reactionary theory of history, we need a
reactionary theory of government. History, again, is interpretation,
and interpretation requires theory. I’ve described this theory before
under the name of neocameralism, but on a blog it never hurts to be
a little repetitive.
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Neocamer
Neocameralism
alism #1
Clippings from this, end-2007 Moldbug Neocameralism essay (with
minimal commentary):
It is very hard to show that any new form of government is
superior to that practiced now. It is even harder to show that any
new form of government is superior to any practiced ever. […]
Nonetheless, unless these problems are not just hard but actually
unsolvable, innovation in the form of government is possible. …
Certainly, the very idea of innovation in government should not
frighten you. If it does, there is no point at all in thinking about
government. This is conservatism to the point of mental disorder. I
simply cannot contend with it, and I refuse to try. If you cannot set
yourself outside your own beliefs and prejudices, you are not capable
of normal civilized discourse.
Neocameralism is not (simply) reactionary because it has never
been fully instantiated up to this time. It is a proposed political-
economic innovation.
Let’s start with my ideal world – the world of thousands,
preferably even tens of thousands, of neocameralist city-states and
ministates, or neostates. The organizations which own and operate
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Owned
Hurlock has a valuable post on the concept of property, especially
in its relation to sovereignty, and formalization. Since (Moldbuggian)
Neocameralism can be construed as a renovated theory of property,
crucially involving all three of these terms, the relevance of the topic
should require no defense. The profound failure of enlightenment
philosophy to satisfactorily determine the meaning of property has
been a hostage to fortune whose dire consequences have yet to be
fully exhausted. (Within the NRx generally, the question of property
is deeply under-developed, and — with a very few exceptions — there
is little sign of serious attention being paid to it.)
The enlightenment failure has been to begin its analysis of
property from the problem of justification. This not only throws it
into immediate ideological contention, submitting it to politics, and
thus to relentless left-drift, it also places insurmountable obstacles
in the path of rigorous understanding. To depart from an axiom of
legitimate original property acquisition through work, as Locke does,
is already proto-Marxist in implication, resting on philosophically
hopeless metaphor, such as that of ‘mixing’ labor with things. It is
property that defines work (over against non-productive behavior),
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Legitimacy
As the conclusion to a quality piece of Singapore gloating, Kishore
Mahbubani outlines the crucial principle of regime legitimacy that
liberal-autocratic East Asia is honing for the world:
Singapore has its fair share of detractors. Its political system was
widely viewed as being an “enlightened dictatorship,” even though
free elections have been held every five years. Its media is widely
perceived to be controlled by the government and Singapore is
ranked number 153 out of 180 by Reporters Without Borders in
2015 on the Press Freedom Index. Many human rights organizations
criticize it. Freedom House ranks Singapore as “partially free.” […]
Undoubtedly, some of these criticisms have some validity. Yet, the
Singapore population is one of the best educated populations and,
hence, globally mobile. The
Theyy could vvote
ote with their feet if Singapore
were a stifling “un-free” society. Most choose to stay. Equally
importantly, some of the most talented people in the world, including
Americans and Europeans, are giving up their citizenship to become
Singapore citizens. Maybe they have noticed something that the
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Western media has not noticed: Singapore is one of the best places
to be born in and to live in. [UF emphasis]
Jacobinism is typically too lost in its own evangelical universalism
to recognize its limits in political philosophy and in space, if not yet
quite so demonstrably in time.
August 5, 2015
Laffer Drift
One dark and fearsome crag, half-lost among the Himalayan
mountain range of uncleared obligations stretched out before this
blog, is a promise to devote a post (or several) to Mencius Moldbug’s
Neocameral regime model. The opportunity to make a small payment
against this debt having arisen, I am eagerly seizing it.
A relatively marginal but consistent feature in Moldbug’s model is
the tendency of Neocameral tax rates to approximate to the Laffer
maximum. Since Moldbug aims to rationalize the theory of
government, under the presumption of its ineliminably self-
interested nature, this suggestion scarcely requires an argument
(and in fact does not receive one). Government will always tend to
maximize its resources, and Arthur Laffer’s graph of optimum
revenue-raising tax rates seems to show the way this is done. A
Neocameral regime tends the economy of a country exactly as a
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August 6, 2013
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Undisco
Undiscovvered Countries
After (re)reading Adam Gurri’s critical analysis of the core problem
of Neoreaction (a tragedy of the political commons), read the
surgical response by Handle. The calm intelligence on display from
both sides is almost enough to drive you insane. This can’t be
happening, right? “In a way, it’s a bit sad, because I can guess that
Gurri’s article will be the zenith and high-water mark of coverage
of neoreaction which means it will only get worse from here on in.”
Enjoy the insight while it lasts.
My own response to Gurri is still embryonic, but I already suspect
that it diverges from Handle’s to some degree. Rather than
defending the ‘technocratic’ element in the Moldbug Patchwork-
Neocameral model, I agree with Gurri that this is a real problem,
although (of course) I am far more sympathetic to the underlying
intellectual project. Unlike Gurri — who in this crucial respect
represents a classical liberal position at its most thoughtful —
Moldbug does not conceive democracy as a discovery process,
illuminated by analogy to market dynamics and organic social
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The Deal
NRx repudiates public politics. Turn that around, and it’s the thesis:
Politics happens in private.
Specifically — as a political philosophy — NRx advocates the
privatization of government. It makes a public case for that, in the
abstract, but only for purposes of informational and theoretical
optimization. It is not, ever, doing politics in public, but only thinking
about it under conditions of minimal intelligence security. Concrete
execution of political strategy occurs through private deals.
The currency of such deals was formalized by Mencius Moldbug,
as primary (or fungible sovereign) property. It corresponds to the
conversion — whether notional or actual — of hard power into
business assets. This conversion is what ‘formalism’ means. It’s an
important contribution to political philosophy, and political
economy, but it’s also a negotiating position.
Cries for (public) Action! will always be with us, at least until
things are radically sorted out. They should be ignored. No public
action is serious.
The serious thing is the deal, which substitutes for any semblance
of revolution, and also for regime perpetuation. Shadow NRx —
which acts outside the sphere of public visibility — is a political
vulture fund. This blog does not want to know who, or what, it is. Its
deep secrecy is the same as its reality. Our concern is restricted to
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You’re going to have to put your social ideals into Neocameral format
if you want to play in the 21st century.
They really could do that. Sovereign stock distribution could be
wholly egalitarian. If Neo-Maoism seeks a sensible sized patch, they
should clearly be given one. (That would be a Neo-Maoist garbage
disposal program, as far as everyone else is concerned.) At the
highest level, NRx is first-order politics neutral. Do whatever you
want, within precisely formalized bounds.
There’s no audience for this point yet. Eventually there will be.
“But … but .. the whole point of the Left is that we don’t think
government is a business!” — Then call it a ‘co-op’ or some equivalent
bullshit. Jesus, use some imagination.
March 4, 2017
Startup Cities
Michael Anissimov is no friend of Neocameralism, but he’s got a good
sense for the kind of things we like:
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Clandestine NeoCam
This is huge:
The most intriguing secrets of the “war on terror” have nothing
to do with al-Qaeda and its fellow travelers. They’re about the
mammoth private spying industry that all but runs U.S. intelligence
operations today. […] Surprised? No wonder. In April, Director of
National Intelligence Mike McConnell was poised to publicize a year-
long examination of outsourcing by U.S. intelligence agencies. But
the report was inexplicably delayed — and suddenly classified a
national secret. What McConnell doesn’t want you to know is that
the private spy industry has succeeded where no foreign
government has: It has penetrated the CIA and is running the show.
[…] Over the past five years (some say almost a decade), there has
been a revolution in the intelligence community toward wide-scale
outsourcing. Private companies now perform key intelligence-
agency functions, to the tune, I’m told, of more than $42 billion a
year. Intelligence professionals tell me that more than 50 percent of
the National Clandestine Service (NCS) — the heart, brains and soul
of the CIA — has been outsourced to private firms such as Abraxas,
Booz Allen Hamilton, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. …
Of course, read it all, but especially:
Outsourcing has provided solutions to personnel-management
problems that have always plagued the CIA’s operations side. Rather
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NRx Disne
Disneyworld
yworld
Never underestimate the capacity of modern history’s neo-
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cyberpunk oddity to reach the place you thought you were heading
ahead of time, and in a way that doesn’t seem … quite right. Glenn
Beck has set his heart (and checkbook) on a version of
neoreactionary secessionism, based on a restoration of the House of
Disney. Once you see the plan, it’s immediately obvious that nothing
in the reactosphere will ever be the same again:
While Independence is very much a dream at this point, the
proposed city-theme park hybrid would bring several of Glenn’s
seemingly disconnected projects into one place. Media, live events,
small business stores, educational projects, charity, entertainment,
news, information, and technology R&D – all of these things would
have a home in Independence. With the rest of the country and the
world going away from the values of freedom, responsibility and
truth, Independence would be a place built on the very foundation
of those principles. A retreat from the world where entrepreneurs,
artists, and creators could come to put their ideas to work. A place
for families to bring their children to be inspired. […] The ambitious
project, projected to cost over two billion dollars, has been heavily
influenced by Walt Disney. As Glenn has been explaining throughout
the week, Disneyland was originally intended to be a place where
people would find happiness, inspiration, courage and hope. Over
time, Walt Disney’s original vision has been lost. While hundreds of
thousands still flock to the town, it’s become commercialized and
the big dreams and the heart have been compromised. […] Glenn
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believes that he can bring the heart and the spirit of Walt’s early
Disneyland ideas into reality. Independence, USA wouldn’t be about
rides and merchandise, but would be about community and freedom.
The Marketplace would be a place where craftmen and artisan could
open and run real small businesses and stores. The owners and
tradesmen could hold apprenticeships and teach young people the
skills and entrepreneurial spirit that has been lost in today’s
entitlement state. […] There would also be an Media Center, where
Glenn’s production company would film television, movies,
documentaries, and more. Glenn hoped to include scripted television
that would challenge viewers without resorting to a loss of human
decency. He also said it would be a place where aspiring journalists
would learn how to be great reporters. […] Across the lake, there
would be a church modelled after The Alamo which would act as
a multi-denominational mission center. The town will also have a
working ranch where visitors can learn how to farm and work the
land.
Gnon giveth in overwhelming abundance, and also takes away.
“Neoreaction? Wasn’t that some kind of precursor to the Glenn
Beck thing?”
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Disne
Disneyy NRx
It looks as if this was a lot more flippant than it needed to be.
Via @asilentsky (via), the question: Was Walt Disney practically
exploring a prototypical Neoreaction in the 1960s? Such
anachronism typically merits extreme skepticism, but here are some
videos to hone your doubt upon: Walt Disney’s original plan for
EPCOT (his Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow),
parts 1, 2, and 3. Plus some select tweet support:
A for profit city that is also an industrial park for cutting edge
industry, with room for future technology, designed to be
updated. #NRx
— Konkvistador (@asilentsky) July 20, 2015
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SECTION B - F
FASCISM
ASCISM
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AIA
AIACC
CC
Moldbug’s latest has triggered a wave of discussion by emphatically
re-stating the long-standing thesis:
America is a communist country.
The supporting argument is richly multi-threaded, and I won’t
attempt to recapitulate it here. Its dominant flavor can be
appreciated in these paragraphs:
When the story of the 20th century is told in its proper,
reactionary light, international communism is anything but a
grievance of which Americans may complain. Rather, it’s a crime for
which we have yet to repent. Since America is a communist country,
the original communist country, and the most powerful and
important of communist countries, the crimes of communism are our
crimes. You may not personally have supported these crimes. Did
you oppose them in any way?
Whereas actually, codewords like “progressive,” “social justice,”
“change,” etc, are shared across the Popular Front community for the
entire 20th century. They are just as likely to be used by a Cheka
cheerleader from the ’20s, as a Clinton voter from the ’90s.
‘Progressives’ aren’t called out on their all-but-overt communism
for ‘reasons’ of tact, rooted in a complex structure of intimidation,
which itself attests to comprehensive Left triumph. It’s rude to call
a ruling communist a communist, and being rude can be highly
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who became the party’s leader not long after its founding — and
those were the policies that the same party enacted when it took
power in Germany in 1933.
If those policies sound familiar, dear reader, they should. That’s
the other reason why next to nobody outside of specialist historical
works mentions national socialism by name: the Western nations
that defeated national socialism in Germany promptly adopted its
core economic policies, the main source of its mass appeal, to
forestall any attempt to revive it in the postwar world.
(via @PuzzlePirate)
ADDED: A point of clarification and a question:
Fascism isn’t a problem because it triggers scary feelings about
the Nazis. It’s a problem because it’s running the world.
Question: Is there anybody among the critics of this contention
who seeks to defend fascism against sloppy criticism and ‘spin’ who
doesn’t also want — at least partially — to defend elements of
socialist governance?
The sample size of the commentary so far is too small to tell, but
it’s looking as if the answer is ‘no’. If so, it would suggest that Hayek
and even (*gasp*) Jonah Goldberg are right in suggesting that the
fundamental controversy is about spontaneous social organization,
and not about any unambiguous argument of Left v. Right.
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Fascism
The whole of Robert O. Paxton’s The Anatomy of Fascism (2004) is
available here. In the final pages (p.218), following detailed historical
analysis, it cautiously advances a cultural-political definition:
Fascism may be defined as a form of political behavior marked
by obsessive preoccupation with community decline, humiliation, or
victimhood and by compensatory cults of unity, energy, and purity,
in which a mass-based party of committed nationalist militants,
working in uneasy but effective collaboration with traditional elites,
abandons democratic liberties and pursues with redemptive
violence and without ethical or legal restraint goals of internal
cleansing and external expansion.
Since the topic regularly re-surfaces, it seems worth recording
Paxton’s formulation as a reference point, especially as its emphases
differ significantly from those this blog (and its critics) have tended
to stress. An important conclusion of Paxton’s study is that no purely
ideological account of fascism is able to capture what is an
essentially historical phenomenon, which is to say a process, rooted
in the degeneration of democracy. (Wikipedia offers some
background on his work.)
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‘Neoliber
‘Neoliberalism
alism’’
It’s absolutely obvious that any engagement with the most
prominent current version of accelerationist thinking — or indeed
with any left-dominated discussion today — is going to encounter the
term ‘neoliberalism‘ as an omnipresent reference. Sheer irritability
won’t serve as a response for long.
Why irritation at all? Most immediately, because the reference of
this term is a sprawling mess. It is employed ambiguously to describe
an epoch, and an ideology. The evident duplicity of this lies in the
tacit assumption that the ideology defines the epoch — a vast
historical and political claim, as well as an implausible one — which
evades systematic interrogation through terminological sleaziness.
Worse still, the characteristics of the ‘neoliberal’ ideology are
themselves pasted together, primarily by a mish-mash of
theoretically-impoverished anti-capitalist polemics from around the
world, with the consequence that its only consistent feature is the
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the political utility of the word, there are few grounds for optimism
in this respect. David Harvey, for instance, who has devoted a book
to the ‘topic’ (A Brief History of Neoliberalism, 2005), produces no
clear definition beyond resurgent capitalism, as it occurred with the
partial recession of central planning from the late 1970s.
Unsurprisingly, therefore, the more classically liberal policy
becomes, the more ‘neoliberal’ it is too. The ‘neo-‘, in the end, signifies
no more than an infuriated “you’re supposed to be dead, goddammit.”
Neoliberalism is then a capitalistic orientation that has outlived
expectation, and since the expectation has been sunk into
immovable foundations, it is the outliving that requires explicit
designation.
Whatever slight (and strictly polemical) coherence might be
drawn from Harvey is thrown back into chaos by Benjamin Noys’
paper ‘The Grammar of Neoliberalism’ (2010). Far from describing
the partial reversion to market-oriented economic arrangements in
the wake of hegemonic Social Democratic assumptions, Noys
identifies ‘neoliberalism’ with the state-supervised capitalism
introduced in the 1920s-30s, i.e. exactly that economic order which
Harvey’s ‘neoliberalism’ overthrows.
Taken in its own terms — rather than as a defense of an
intrinsically misleading word — Noys’ argument is highly interesting.
Its general direction is captured in the following passage [citation
marks subtracted]:
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to the statism of the left — the role of the state was specifically
directed to imposing an administrative simulacrum of catallactic
social order, it would become a valuable, theoretically-functional
word. This would be so even if the theory itself were criticized,
amended, or rejected — and in fact the very possibility of such
engagement presupposes that ‘neoliberalism’ becomes a locally
intelligible concept (local, that is, to Noys’ argument and whatever
halo it has managed to extend beyond itself).
Even here on the Outer Right, almost all terminological irritability
would immediately subside if the expression repeatedly
encountered was — even implicitly — Neoliberalism in the Noysean
sense. It would then be a term with relatively precise limits, clarifying
more than it obscured. Consequently, it would mark a limit on the
right as well as the left, distinguishing anti-statist or laissez-faire
capitalism — with its model in Hong Kong — from the dominant
political-economic formation of our age. For that reason alone, it can
be confidently anticipated that ‘neoliberalism’ will not be permitted
to mean any such thing.
ADDED: Complete PDF of David Harvey’s A Brief History of
Neoliberalism.
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‘Neoliber
‘Neoliberalism
alism’’ II
Paul Mason thinks he’s being helpful:
There’s a meme that keeps resurfacing in the genteel world of
rightwing financial thought: that the term “neoliberalism” is in some
way just a term of abuse, or a catch-all phrase invented by the left.
[…] Well, as the UK steel industry faces instant closure—and let’s
be clear that’s what Tata would do if it had to—we about to get
a textbook lesson in what neoliberalism actually means. It means,
when market logic clashes with human logic, the market must prevail
and you must not give a shit about the social consequences.
Ummm … you know that was just straight-up liberalism, before
they wrecked the word. (Socialism is the other thing.)
ADDED: Some precious lucidity here.
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March 3, 2014
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efficiently — attenuates.)
Amin is therefore writing from a position of structurally-
unobservant Marxist dogma when he remarks of “fascist regimes” in
general:
… they were all willing to manage the government and society in
such a way as not to call the fundamental principles of capitalism
into question, specifically private capitalist property, including that
of modern monopoly capitalism. That is why I call these different
forms of fascism particular ways of managing capitalism and not
political forms that challenge the latter’s legitimacy, even if
“capitalism” or “plutocracies” were subject to long diatribes in the
rhetoric of fascist speeches. The lie that hides the true nature of
these speeches appears as soon as one examines the “alternative”
proposed by these various forms of fascism, which are always silent
concerning the main point — private capitalist property.
On the contrary — every fascist regime qualifies the liberal right
to free disposal of ‘strategic’ economic assets, and thus subverts
“private capitalist property” at the root. Indeed, the forms of
property most radically affected by fascist governance are precisely
those identifiable with a capitalistic (i.e. productive) character. In the
case of large-scale capital assets determined as the ‘commanding
heights’ of a modern industrial economy, especially those of clear
military significance, utilization is directed as stringently under
fascist conditions as communistic ones (although typically with
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531
Reignition
September 2, 2014
Capitalism T
Toda
odayy
… the American version, at least, which is probably why it’s going to
die. Apple’s Tim Cook opines:
America’s business community recognized a long time ago that
discrimination, in all its forms, is bad for business.
Charitably, I’m going to assume this isn’t a direct quote from
Stormfront. It’s a mess, but not an unanticipated one.
ADDED: Any connoisseur of tangled irony knots has to
appreciate this:
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The more politics we get, the deeper pragmatic populism digs in.
ADDED: Background to the Times Square shot. “The more
familiar it is, the more terrifying it is.” (Quite.)
The ‘F’ W
Word
ord
Fascism is back, apparently. At the very least, it might be getting
more interesting to talk about.
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537
Reignition
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539
Reignition
Horseshoe Quiz
Nazism is the only political form that corresponds to the soul of the
European people.
— Without peeking, see if you can guess which ‘end of the political
spectrum’ this comes from.
ADDED: Relevant —
July 9, 2017
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The Eur
Eurasian
asian Question
Within the great spans of history, domestic ideological controversy
is something close to a luxury good. Whenever it isn’t to same extent
‘on hold’ the global environment is untypically benign. Under more
normal — which is to say stressed — conditions, it either folds down
into pragmatism, or explodes into cosmic, eschatological drama. In
today’s unmistakably stressed world, Alexander Dugin‘s
‘Eurasianism‘ exemplifies the latter eventuality.
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August 7, 2014
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Mash
Among the very many reasons to revere Jim is that he doesn’t mess
about.
There’s a sizable constituency on the ‘alt right’ whose self-
understood differentiation from the Marxist left is entirely reducible
to its own heightened appreciation for authoritarian hierarchy and
racial solidarity. Since actually existing Marxist-Leninist regimes
have been, uniformly, authoritarian-hierarchical ethno-nationalists,
this isn’t in fact the basis for any real difference at all.
ADDED: What I’m seeing —
White Dindus
“Our entire history is something that’s been done to us by tricky
outsiders — especially the bad stuff!”
When anybody else sounds like this, it’s rightfully categorized as
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pathetic whining.
ADDED: “Can we criticize (the extraordinarily large number of)
Jewish Leftist freaks without going completely insane about it?”
“No! Go completely insane about it!”
October 8, 2015
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inevitably going to be far larger than NRx is, or should ever aim to
be. If you think people power is basically great, but the Left have
just been doing it wrong, the Alt-Right is most probably what you’re
looking for (and NRx definitely isn’t).
For the Alt-Right, generally speaking, fascism is (1) basically a
great idea, and (2) a meaningless slur concocted by (((Cultural
Marxists))) to be laughed at. For NRx (XS version) fascism is a late-
stage leftist aberration made peculiarly toxic by its comparative
practicality. There’s no real room for a meeting of minds on this point.
As a consequence of its essential populism, the Alt-Right is
inclined to anti-capitalism, ethno-socialism, grievance politics, and
progressive statism. Its interest in geopolitical fragmentation (or
Patchwork production) is somewhere between hopelessly distracted
and positively hostile. Beside its — admittedly highly entertaining
— potential for collapse catalysis, there’s no reason at all for the
techno-commercial wing of NRx to have the slightest sympathy for
it. Space for tactical cooperation, within the strategic framework of
pan-secessionism, certainly exists, but that could equally be said of
full-on Maoists with a willingness to break things up.
None of this should be taken as a competition for recruits. The
Alt-Right will get almost all of them — it’s bound to be huge. From
the NRx perspective, the Alt-Right is to be appreciated for helping
to clean us up. They’re most welcome to take whoever they can,
especially if they shut the door on the way out.
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March 5, 2016
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Fascism isn’t cool, and Anglosphere cultures will never find it so.
In Continental Europe it’s different, but that’s a whole other topic.
We’re not them, which is one of the crucial things the Alt-Right ultras
won’t ever get. We’re Atlanteans. There’s expanded space for a right-
populist American nationalist movement, but it won’t call itself the
Alt-Right, and if it’s remotely sensible it will be pre-emptively
immunized against ruinous European ideas. It will probably be far
more Tea-Party flavored, though a lot tougher. (This blog will still find
its populism unappetizing.)
That’s the XS prediction. (RamZPaul, who liked the Alt-Right
much more than I did, agrees with the central point.)
Jim has a very different take. (As does Amerika.)
Here‘s someone who’s building something more solid.
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the DE.
ADDED: See this TDE statement.
(2) I have no social connections at all with the Lesser God-tier of
SV. (If I did, I’d brag about it all the time.)
(3) Anyone who thinks this usage of echoes is non-ironic needs a
Kek-check.
(4) The RamZPaul link is complete black-thread and duct tape
conspiracism. (C’mon, seriously, that’s obvious, isn’t it?) A little
reciprocal linkage isn’t a social relationship. We both merely
acknowledge that the other guy exists.
Induction would suggest there are some other howlers beyond
my epistemological horizon. Frankly, though, I don’t see much
deliberate malevolence here. Cramer seems to be doing his best to
understand what’s going on, and to remain as calm as possible about
it. If he’s primarily interested in the Alt-Right, I’d recommend much
more attention to Richard Spencer, and much less to Neoreaction.
My recommendation to NRx, naturally, is to vindicate that
suggestion.
March 3, 2017
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The F
Fear
ear
Ryan Cooper:
I made the case just a couple months back that Republican
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Reignition
Merk
Merkel’s
el’s Mess
Damon Linker paints the gruesome picture almost perfectly. (Read
the whole thing — it’s not long.)
In the course of a few months, Angela Merkel was transmogrified
from a moderately talented German politician, into one of the most
destructive leaders in world history. If that sounds like an
exaggeration, it’s only because her responsibility for dragging the
European continent back into a new 1930s still awaits the unfolding
of events. Even without complete relapse into a dark age of
authoritarian anti-capitalism, the wave of rape, pillage, and terror
she has unleashed will now — inevitably — devastate millions of lives,
and structurally degrade the quality of life for tens of millions more
as they seek to protect themselves in markedly more adverse social
circumstances. It will all get extremely ugly. As Linker dryly remarks,
“let’s just say it’s unlikely to end well. … And the storm has only just
begun to gather.”
What was she thinking? Assuming — as seems fair — that she
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August 6, 2016
Post-Democr
ost-Democratic
atic P
Politics
olitics
Apparently we’re already in the next phase:
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SECTION C - STRA
STRATEGICS
TEGICS
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CHAPTER ONE - R
ROUGH
OUGH TRIANGLES
The Unspeakable
To prepare for an excursion into the real-world workings of strategic
triangles, this harshly illuminating conversation between David P.
Goldman (‘Spengler’) and the ghost of Cardinal Richelieu is worth
recalling:
“We are a bit confused about Syria,” I began. “Its leader, Bashar
al-Assad, is slaughtering his own people to suppress an uprising. And
he is allied to Iran, which wants to acquire nuclear weapons and
dominate the region. If we overthrow Assad, Sunni radicals will
replace him, and take revenge on the Syrian minorities. And a radical
Sunni government in Syria would ally itself with the Sunni minority
next door in Iraq and make civil war more likely.”
“I don’t understand the question,” Richelieu replied.
“Everyone is killing each other in Syria and some other places in
the region, and the conflict might spread. What should we do about
it?”
“How much does this cost you?”
“Nothing at all,” I answered.
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“Then let them kill each other as long as possible, which is to say
for 30 years or so. Do you know,” the ghastly Cardinal continued,
“why really interesting wars last for 30 years? That has been true
from the Peloponnesian War to my own century. First you kill the
fathers, then you kill their sons. There aren’t usually enough men left
for a third iteration.”
“We can’t go around saying that,” I remonstrated.
ADDED: DrewM at AoS channels Richelieu from the id:
“Personally, I’m happy to let [the Syrians] fight it out amongst
themselves for a good long time. Hell, let’s arm both sides.”
Rough T
Triangles
riangles
The elementary model of robust plural order is the tripod. Whether
taken as a schema for constitutional separation of powers, a deeper
cultural matrix supporting decentralized societies, or a pattern of
ultimate cosmic equilibrium, triangular fragmentation provides the
archetype of quasi-stable disunity. By dynamically preempting the
emergence of a dominant instance, the triangle describes an
automatic power-suppression mechanism.
From the Romance of the Three Kingdoms to The Good, the Bad,
and the Ugly, triangular fragmentation has been seen to present an
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The classic example is the great German civil war, namely the 30
Years’ War of 1618-48. The Catholic and Protestant Germans, with
roughly equal strength, battered each other through two
generations because France sneakily shifted resources to whichever
side seemed likely to fold. I have contended for years that the United
States ultimately will adopt the perpetual-warfare doctrine that so
well served Cardinal Richelieu and made France the master of
Europe for a century (see How I learned to stop worrying and love
chaos, March 14)
To imagine this policy being pursued with cold deliberation is the
stuff of conspiracy theory. Nevertheless, regardless of whether
anybody is yet playing this game, this is the game.
ADDED: A Couple of rough triangles links; George Kerevan at
The Scotsman; and Clifford May at The National Post (who recalls
Kissingers classic rough triangles comment — on the Iran-Iraq War —
“It’s a shame they can’t both lose.”)
ADDED: Daniel Pipes is totally there: “Western powers should
guide enemies to stalemate by helping whichever side is losing, so as
to prolong the conflict.”
ADDED: “With Western policy being so confused, ineffective, and
ignorant, the divisions among enemies may be the best thing going.”
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Rough T
Triangles
riangles II
On learning that Hamas and Hizbollah are now fighting each other in
Syria, Peter Ingemi writes:
This sets up the possibility that the greatest threats to Israel and
the US will be clashing in Syria & Lebanon, in a long and bitter
struggle and moreover as Iran doesn’t want to lose their clients and
the Saudis and others want to bleed Iran this has the potential to
become a mass killing ground for the most vile and despicable
enemies the western world has faced.
And all of it happening without us, or Israel lifting a finger.
For a foe of radical Islam it’s practically a wet dream, we just have to
sit back and let them slaughter each other and if one side starts to
lose, we aid third parties to reenforce [Sic] them enough to keep the
fight going until the cream of the jihadist crop finds themselves, shot,
gassed or blown up.
And at this point where you contemplate the solution to so many
problems that pesky Christian belief comes in. … That’s when you
look at your glee at the death of your enemies and feel ashamed.
The Christianity angle isn’t basic to the Outside in analysis of
rough triangles, but since it’s important to Ingemi, and Ingemi sees
the pattern so clearly, we’ll do our best to remain sub-orgasmic about
the situation (even if it escalates into a regional humanitarian
calamity of apocalyptic scale). Gnon is considerably less demanding
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June 2, 2013
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Rough T
Triangles
riangles III
Déjà vu time at XS, courtesy of the Mesopotamian death spiral, and
Fernandez’s strategic framing. The background is important, and
relates the topic to a wider question of conservation laws.
The collapse in the Middle East feels like Black April, 1975, the
month South Vietnam fell [*]. And it should, because just as the
collapse of Saigon did not happen in Black April, but in a political
American decision to allow South Vietnam to fall after a “decent
interval”, so also is the ongoing collapse rooted, not in the recent
tactical mistakes of the White House, but in the grand strategic
decision president Obama made when he assumed office. […] This is
the plan
plan. It would be crazy not to acknowledge it.
A humanitarian foreign policy is as much a hostage to dark humor
as any other affront to Gnon. Hell doesn’t go away just because you
don’t like it. So instead it slides diagonally in the only direction left
open, from bloody (and incompetent) hegemonism into radically
cynical catastrophe tweaking:
Deep in their hearts the Washington Post and the New York
Times must realize they endorsed Obama precisely because they
knew that when this moment came he would harden his heart and
refuse to re-engage, except for show. Since this is the plan, the only
effective strategy, the only sane thing to do is to accept the liberal
gambit and continue it. […] The obvious continuation is not to
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Natur
Natural
al La
Laww
“Some critics of Morsi argue that the U.S. should let him fail,” reports
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March 7, 2013
Let It Burn …
… (the Middle East version):
Why can’t America be more like China?
(a) Stay out
(b) If you have to interfere, help whoever’s losing (but not too much)
(c) Recognize there’s an intricate theological argument going on that
we can’t hope to understand:
ADDED:
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Sa
Savagery
vagery Management
The Left-Salafist alliance:
… the cause of Salafist Islam has come to dominate the field of
armed struggle since 2001 and to be the most attractive option for
people inclined to practice insurgency. Salafist Islam also melds well
with the lessons in insurgency and terrorism previously taught by
Marxist theoreticians such as Carlos Marighella, especially when one
factors in the ideas and strategy of modern Islamist theorists such
as Sayyid Qutb and Abu Bakr al Naji, author of The Management of
Savagery. These concepts have also been quite attractive for many
on the radical left in the West, who may go so far as to be motivated
by the melding of a theory of armed revolution with an intact
religious tradition, thereby even converting to Islam. It may also
mean that support for jihad, particularly in Europe, may go well
beyond Muslim enclaves.
This process of amalgamation between the camps of the enemy
is of the very greatest advantage to the Outer Right. The model of
domestic progressive ‘evolution’ is switched to one of stark foreign
aggression. It thus terminates all prospect of political compromise,
and integrates a single military security problem.
If the Right is incapable of recognizing what it is, it can at least
consolidate against what it has to stop. It is in the ashes of this
conflict that the toxic dream of political universality will have died.
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Sentences (#81)
Harsanyi:
… institutional media and white nationalists ha havve formed a
politically con
convvenient symbiotic relationship.
Is this seriously deniable?
There’s a lot of conspiracy-theorizing underway right now, but it
seems implausible, and superfluous. A spontaneous convergence of
(perceived) interests is capable of explaining everything. In the end,
though, someone is being played. In fact, it’s not only possible, but
probable, that both sides of this particular arrangement are being
played, and not primarily by each other.
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Game Theory
Attempting to hold rationality and humanity together is an
unenviable task, if not simply an impossible one:
In a series of interventions, Adil Ahmad Haque and Charlie
Dunlap have debated the Defense Department La Laww of W
Warar Manual
Manual’s
position on human shields (here, here, and here). Claiming that the
manual does not draw a distinction between voluntary and
involuntary human shields, Haque maintains that it ignores the
principle of proportionality, thus permitting the killing of defenseless
civilians who are used as involuntary shields. Dunlap, however,
insists that the manual includes all the necessary precautions for
protecting civilians used as shields by enemy combatants, and argues
that the adoption of Haque’s approach would actually encourage the
enemy to increase the deployment of involuntary human shields. …
Sensitivity to the plight of ‘human shields’ directly increases their
tactical value. That is the ultimate ‘proportionality’ involved in the
discussion. Disciplined attention to incentives under conditions of
unbounded competition reliably heads into dark places.
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January 5, 2016
Quotable (#134)
In The New Yorker, John Cassidy lucidly rehearses the core game
theoretic model of economic crisis:
… deciding whether to invest in financial assets or any other form
of capital can be viewed as a huge n-person game (one involving
more than two participants), in which there are two options: trust
in a good outcome, which will lead you to make the investment, or
defect from the game and sit on your money. If you don’t have a firm
idea about what is going to happen and the payoffs are extremely
uncertain, the optimal strategy may well be to defect rather than to
trust. And if everybody defects, bad things result.
Does anybody seriously expect honesty from the status quo
within this context? ‘Optimism’ is a fundamental building-block of
regime stability. Expect it to be very carefully nurtured, with
whatever epistemological flexibility is found helpful.
(Stay to the end of the article for the ominous nonlinear dynamics
that correspond to narrative dike-breaking.)
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Quotable (#191)
Nagel on (Gottlieb on) Hobbes, getting the critical point:
What was distinctive about Hobbes’s theory, and what led to his
being attacked as a moral nihilist, was his refusal to appeal to any
concern for the good of others or the collective good as a basis for
moral motivation. He demonstrated that the familiar rules of
morality, which he called the laws of nature, are principles of conduct
such that if everyone follows them, everyone will be better off. But
the fact that everyone will be better off if everyone follows them
gives no individual a reason to follow them himself. He can have a
reason to follow them only if that will make him individually better
off. And there is no natural guarantee that individual self-interest
and the collective interest will coincide in this way. […] Hobbes
concluded that although we all have a reason to want to live in a
community governed by the moral rules, we cannot achieve this
unless we bring it about that it is in each person’s individual interest
to abide by those rules. And the method of doing that is to agree
with one another to support a powerful sovereign with a monopoly
on the use of force, who will use it to punish violators. Only then
can each individual be confident that if he obeys the rules, he will
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(Voltaire?)
ADDED: Thanks to Harold (in the comments) for hunting this
down:
Cet animal est tres méchant;
Quand on l’attaque il se défend.
Cui bono?
Terrorism is notoriously resistant to strict definition, and the most
obvious reason for this is generally understood. Unlike (for instance)
guerrilla warfare, ‘terrorism’ is not merely a tactic, but an intrinsically
abominated tactic. Whatever the technical usage of the word, it
adheres to the register of propaganda, as a partisan denunciation. It
is what the other side does.
This partisan skew is reinforced by technical considerations. Even
more than guerrilla warfare, terrorism is a tactic suited to relatively
disorganized non-state actors. When even guerrilla warfare is
impractical, terrorism is the mode of violent ‘resistance’ that
remains. In the sentimental language of the Left, it is the warfare of
the weak.
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Assassination Mark
Markets
ets
Just in case there could be any doubt about it, the primary point
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of this post is to insist that this is a really bad idea. It’s certainly
ingenious, and highly topical, but considered solely from a
perspective of sub-reptilian amorality, it’s still a really bad idea.
For one thing, it’s massively asymmetric, in the wrong way.
Assassinate a McKinley, and it pushes things hard to the left.
Assassinate a Kennedy, and it pushes things hard to the left.
Assassinate pretty much anybody of any public significance, and the
result is the same. Leftists are simply better at fantasy counter-
factuals and martyrology, so the assassination of a leftist produces
an imaginary ultra-leftist of even greater ideological purity (whilst
killing a conservative works, or even turns them into a post-
mortuary leftist). We all know that if JFK hadn’t been murdered by
Texan capitalism we’d be basking in a socialist utopia by now. (There’s
a reason why assassination is the preferred tactic of left-wing
anarchists and communists, beside the fact these people are
demented criminals.)
The reciprocal is even more compelling. Anything that spares
leftists from the consequences of participating in reality aids their
cause. To consider only the most prominent potential target, Barack
Obama alive and in power is the greatest single asset the Outer Right
has ever known. Felled by an assassin, he would become the
capstone of progressive mythology, and everything he’s aiming to
achieve would have turned out absolutely perfectly. If there’s a black
counter-assassination market, surreptitiously protecting key agents
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Chick
Chicken
en
When political polarization is modeled as a game the result is
Chicken. The technical basics are not very complicated.
Reiterated Prisoner’s Dilemma (RPD) is socially integrative. An
equilibrium, conforming to maximal aggregate utility, arises through
reciprocal convergence upon an optimum strategy: defaulting to
trust, punishing defections, and rapidly forgiving corrected behavior.
Any society adopting these rule-of-thumb principles consolidates.
When everyone norms on this strategy, individual and collective
interests are harmonized. Things work.
Chicken is very different. Someone blinks first, so the trust-trust
mutual optimum of RPD is subtracted in advance. Rather than the
four possible outcomes of a single PD round (A and B do OK, A wins B
loses, B wins A loses, A and B both lose) there are just three possible
outcomes (A wins B loses, B wins A loses, A and B both lose
extremely). In Chicken, it is the avoidance of outcome three, rather
than the non-existent chance of PD outcome one, that moderates
behavior, and then asymmetrically (someone always blinks first).
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NYT, Michael P. Lynch: “It is tempting to call this “crazy talk” and
unserious bluster. But it is serious, and it shows that some people
are thinking about what happens next. It is a plan that represents
the logical limit of the views now being entertained on the radical
right, not just in the dark corners of the Internet, but in the sunlight
of mainstream forums. After all, if the government is the problem,
shutting it down is a logical solution.”
ADDED: Jim expects a swerve.
ADDED: The swerve.
Political Chick
Chicken
en
As a preliminary, a little XS background, which I’ll aim not to repeat.
The take on Trump’s advantage that seems under-emphasized: He
credibly signals a refusal to swerve. I’m not arguing here that it’s
realistic to trust that. The point is only, the Trump candidacy looks
to a substantial swathe of the electorate — at least comparatively
— like the strategic choice for not losing at chicken games. As noted
in the linked post, when democratic party politics becomes highly
polarized, that’s the game being played.
Anyone playing chicken through an agent prioritizes certain
definite virtues. Trump’s rhetoric reflects these uncannily. “Winning”
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March 1, 2016
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Sub
Subvversion
Nyan Sandwich has a cunning plan:
Partly because there can simply never be enough of this, but also
for other reasons, this idea is perfectly delicious. It would be like
a Sokal tar-baby, spreading sticky black paranoid confusion
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Poe
oe’s
’s La
Laww
Only a few months ago, I had never heard of Poe’s Law. Now it’s
a rare day in which it doesn’t crop up several times. Invocations of
the Zeitgeist are inherently improbable, but if there were to be a
persuasive illustration of the phenomenon, it would be something
like this.
According to the succinct Wikipedia entry (already linked), Poe’s
Law is less than a decade old. Among it’s precursors, also relatively
recent, a 2001 Usenet comment by Alan Morgan most closely
anticipates it: “Any sufficiently advanced troll is indistinguishable
from a genuine kook.” In other words, between a sincere intellectual
position and its satirization, no secure distinction can be made.
(There is nothing about this thesis that restricts it to ‘extreme’
opinion, although that is how it is usually understood.)
The latest opportunity for raising this topic is, of course,
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AAA …
… stands for agree, amplify, and accelerate. Initiated here, and
escalated here, it opens an unexplored horizon for strategic
discussion within NRx. No analysis of cultural conflict on the Internet
can bypass a reference to trolling, and no understanding of trolling
is any longer complete without reference to AAA. It raises the
discussion of parody to a new level. (If it isn’t already obvious, this
blog is seriously impressed.)
AAA works if strategic complication has favorable consequences.
Whichever cultural faction has the greater capacity for the tolerance
of difficulty, identity confusion, irony, and humor, will tend to find
advantage in it. I think that’s us. It’s inherently toxic to zealotry.
As a sub-theme — but one keenly appreciated here — it marks a
critical evolution in the Cthulhu Wars. (Check out the graphics on the
TNIO post for recognition of that.) Rather than arguing over whether
“Cthulhu swims left” AAA proposes amphetaminizing the monster
regardless. If a “holocaust of freedom” is what you want, let’s go
there. Take this operation to the end of the river … and see what we
find.
ADDED: Slate Star Scratchpad comments.
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#AAA UK
UK-Style
-Style
The profound, utterly cynical contempt for the basic principles,
procedures, and personalities of democracy™ exhibited by this
phenomenon is highly encouraging.
(#AAA)
With added meta-amusement:
AAA … II
There follows an XS-endorsed message from Henry Dampier:
… we can’t make the omelet of perfect, universal justice without
breaking some eggs. […] The presence of White men in any
classroom, owing to their historical record, can be profoundly
triggering to women and people of color. To protect their historic
victims – to give them mental and physical space for them to flourish
– we must keep White men away from the university, and by blocking
them from those institutions, we must keep them far away from
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political power, also. […] We have tried reform. We have tried patient
education. It has not worked. Harsher measures will be required. The
world can’t wait.
(For reference, AAA …)
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the pieces of paper and computer notations its Treasury and central
bank generate ultimately have value after decades of determined
efforts to depreciate them. They’re simply pieces of paper and
computer entries, and eventually they’re not going to buy any
groceries for all those warriors and police the government’s counting
on, or for anyone else. Currencies collapse just before governments
do; witness Venezuela, with its Bolivar and its government in
extremis.
This outcome does not require a plan; it’s going to happen. Indeed,
it’s already happening.
When something is falling, push — but push intelligently. The
fetish for popular violence among certain factions of the Alt-Right
is simple idiocy. If a populace is still docile enough to support
government deficit spending, it’s not going to be waging a guerrilla
war anytime soon.
February 9, 2016
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Peace Dividend
Glenn Reynolds notices an emerging interpretation of PRISM as a
phenomenon internally connected to geopolitical pacifism. Making
unilateral peace requires infinite vigilance.
First Steyn:
The same bureaucracy that takes the terror threat so seriously
that it needs the phone and Internet records of hundreds of millions
of law-abiding persons would never dream of doing a little more pre-
screening in its immigration system … Because the formal, visible
state has been neutered by political correctness, the dark, furtive
shadow state has to expand massively to make, in secret, the
judgment calls that can no longer be made in public.
Then WRM:
PRISM and similar programs aren’t a ghastly misstep or an
avoidable accident. They are the essence of Obama’s grand strategy:
public peace and secret war. To cool down the public face of the war,
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June 8, 2013
Brok
Broken
en P
Pottery
ottery
An irritated Pottery Barn disowned the Pottery Barn Rule — “you
break it, you own it.” Colin Powell sought to create some distance,
too:
It is said that I used the “Pottery Barn rule.” I never did it; [Thomas]
Friedman did it … But what I did say … [is that] once you break it, you
are going to own it, and we’re going to be responsible for 26 million
people standing there looking at us. And it’s going to suck up a good
40 to 50 percent of the Army for years.
Wikipedia concurs with Powell, in attributing the phrase to
Thomas L. Friedman (in a February 2003 column for the New York
Times). Those with a diligent sense for historical detail might be able
to accurately trace its spread amongst journalists and foreign policy
officials, including Bob Woodward, Richard Armitage, and John
Kerry. Regardless of such specifics, it captures the spirit of grand
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September 9, 2013
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Stalin
Stalin’s
’s Great Game
Either Stalin played the Anglosphere like a cheap piano in World
War Two, or something altogether more sinister was going on. Foseti
clarifies the conundrum beautifully:
When the US finally joins the war, it does so with – as best as
one can decipher – only a few clear war aims: 1) demanding
unconditional surrender (of Germany and Japan – aka the only
bulwarks against Soviet domination of post-war Europe and Asia); 2)
establishing the United Nations; and 3) ending European (excluding
Soviet) colonialism.
If you, gentle reader, can come up with a list of war aims that
would be more destructive to mankind at the time than those, the
next round is on me. Perhaps entirely coincidentally (or perhaps not)
these aims would seem to all work towards the direct benefit of the
Soviets. It’s almost like Soviets were making US foreign policy.
October 2, 2013
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Homeless
It is tempting to either embrace or reject the description of the
United States as an ‘empire‘ due to the clear rhetorical weight of
this term. Partisan wrangling on these grounds is sure to continue,
and even to intensify. It is not, however, the only basis upon which
discussion can be pursued.
A global power, it might be plausibly suggested, tends inevitably
to the erosion of its domestic political space. As globalization is
advanced under its auspices, distinctions between domestic and
international concerns — ultimately uncertain in any case — become
increasingly unpersuasive. Globalized capital and talent markets
operate with least friction where they intersect the world’s
economic core, while international division of labor, trade, migration,
and cultural exchange wash over traditional localities. In the final
analysis, the very notion of political domesticity survives only as a
residual rebuke to the project of global ‘flattening‘.
While it can be convenient for moralists to interpret hegemonic
power as a bad decision, it’s far closer to a fate (and in very definite
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Our Ally
Ally,, the Enem
Enemyy
It’s not exactly a formal pact between the United States and Al
Qaeda, but no one honestly thinks it’s anything really different.
Either it’s a rough triangles play, or it’s sheer insanity.
Time won’t tell, but it will hint, as the intervention proceeds. If
it makes things worse, before guttering out into indecision, stalling
resolution, then it might make sense. In any case, it’s big.
(Drew M. at AoS is a seriously hard-core rough triangles guy: “We
should help whichever side is losing at any given moment but only to
the extant that it enables them to fight on to take and inflict more
casualties. There’s no scenario where one side winning helps us.”)
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Oil W
War
ar
This contrarian argument, on the resilience of America’s shale
industry in the face of the unfolding OPEC “price war”, is the pretext
to host a discussion about a topic that is at once too huge to ignore,
and too byzantine to elegantly comprehend. The most obvious
complication — bypassed entirely by this article — is the harsher oil
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December 4, 2014
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SEQUENCE i - W
WAR
AR
War and T
Truth
ruth (scr
(scraps)
aps)
“War is computation with tanks. War is truth revealing. As war
proceeds uncertainty collapses.”
— Konkvistador (on Twitter)
“You might not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.”
— Lenin
“War is deception.”
— Sunzi
Neoreactionaries are often talking about ‘oikos’ tacitly, even
when they think they are concerned with something closer to the
opposite. For there to be an ‘economy’ much has already to have
been settled. (Unlike his liberarian precursors, Moldbug never
assumes peace, but he betrays his inheritance by conceiving it as an
original task — a foundation.) “Begin from the inside” — that’s the
idea. The Outside is war.
War is the truth of lies, the rule of rulelessness, anarchy and chaos
as they are in reality (which is nothing at all like a simple negation
of order). It is the ultimate tribunal, beyond which any appeal is a
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Conflict
Burroughs:
This is a war universe. War all the time. That is its nature. There
may be other universes based on all sorts of other principles, but
ours seems to be based on war and games.
Triggered by this:
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July 3, 2014
War is God
Via Landry, an introduction to the “new generation of unrestricted
warfare”.
Colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui argued that war was no
longer about “using armed forces to compel the enemy to submit to
one’s will” in the classic Clausewitzian sense. Rather, they asserted
that war had evolved to “using all means, including armed force or
non-armed force, military and non-military, and lethal and non-lethal
means to compel the enemy to accept one’s interests.” The barrier
between soldiers and civilians would fundamentally be erased,
because the battle would be everywhere. The number of new
battlefields would be “virtually infinite,” and could include
environmental warfare, financial warfare, trade warfare, cultural
warfare, and legal warfare, to name just a few. They wrote of
assassinating financial speculators to safeguard a nation’s financial
security, setting up slush funds to influence opponents’ legislatures
and governments, and buying controlling shares of stocks to convert
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May 9, 2016
The Dark F
Forest
orest
Volume two of Cixin Liu’s science fiction trilogy.
The universe had once been bright, too. For a short time after the
big bang, all matter existed in the, and only after the universe turned
to burnt ash did heavy elements precipitate out of the darkness and
form planets and life. Darkness was the mother of life and
civilization.
The dark forest is the universe, but to get there — with insight —
takes a path through Cosmic Sociology:
“See how the stars are points? The factors of chaos and
randomness in the complex makeups of every civilized society in the
universe get filtered out by distance, so those civilizations can act
as reference points that are relatively easy to manipulate
mathematically.”
“But there’s nothing concrete to study in your cosmic sociology, Dr.
Ye. Surveys and experiments aren’t really possible.”
“That means your ultimate result will be purely theoretical. Like
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October 1, 2015
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February 4, 2017
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Premature Ejection
As Napoleon famously advised: “Never interrupt your enemy when
he’s making a mistake.” Understandably, but still unfortunately, the
Egyptian army have just done exactly that.
Daniel Pipes has pipped me to the post on this (here or here). The
short summary that pre-empts me most specifically is this: “Morsi
was removed from power too soon to discredit Islamism as much as
he should have.” It took seven decades of chronic failure to associate
the Marxist command economy with hopeless dysfunction in the
eyes of the world, and even then, the lesson remains far from
complete. It can scarcely be imagined that a few months of Muslim
Brotherhood misgovernment is going to sear any lasting scars into
the global Islamic soul. So: an opportunity missed.
Clearly, the forces of the Egyptian deep state were in no position
to be as utterly indifferent to humanitarian considerations as
Outside in. Their hand was forced, since whatever the educational
virtues of mass starvation, it takes a certain distance to fully
appreciate them. In any case, with Egypt now clearly unsprung, it is
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July 6, 2013
The Islamic V
Vorte
ortexx (P
(Part
art 1)
When confronted by large-scale — and thus complex – historical
events, it is inevitable that attempts at understanding will be
dominated by analogy. Even among experts, with access to abstract
models of generic processes (‘revolution’, modernization, escalation,
phase-change …), it is only through reference to concrete historical
episodes that such intellectual tools acquire the richness necessary
for successful application to actual world events. Even the most
conceptually-refined historiographical language is honed for
analogical usage. There is no ‘idea’ of ‘revolution’ truly separable
from the examples of revolution provided by the historical record,
and even if there was, it could have no use. Since history is rhythmic,
but never exactly repetitive, such analogies can be more or less
relevant, but only ever roughly suggestive. They are, in any case,
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unavoidable.
During the years immediately following 9/11, Western
perceptions of the new global reality were controlled by analogy
with World War II, and even those who rejected this template were
locked into a negative relationship with it. If 9/11 was not Pearl
Harbor, or anything like it, it remained necessary to say so,
repeatedly, and to little immediate effect. The term ‘Islamofascism’
was inherited from this period, and its fading currency is significant
(as we shall see).
On the Left, resistance to the WWII analogy was relatively
frictionless, because it was already, from the moment of its inception,
outweighed by an alternative analogy, drawn from Cold War ‘anti-
imperialist’ revolution. Bin Laden could never be a new Hitler, to
those who had already recognized him as a new Ho Chi Minh. On
the Right, however, intricate ironies abounded. Those on the paleo-
libertarian end of the political spectrum, who most vehemently
denounced the ‘Axis of Evil’ as a cynical fabrication, were propelled
by events into an accelerated rediscovery of the Old Right, and thus
found themselves – quite self-consciously — reviving 1930s
American isolationism. Through the very rejection of the (WWII)
analogy, they found themselves confirming its rough historical
message.
Is the West returning to the 1930s? That is another topic,
although it can be noted that evidence in support of this analogy has
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The Islamic V
Vorte
ortexx (P
(Part
art 2)
The central contention advanced by part 1 in this series is that the
basic trend manifested in the Middle East today – most evidently
across its northern arc — is the disintegration of the modern state
system (and with it all the questions of political progress that have
been incrementally globalized since the Treaty of Westphalia in the
mid-17th century). To continue to discuss this process in terms of
‘Lebanon’, ‘Syria’, and ‘Iraq’ is becoming increasingly quaint. Within
this region, in particular, states no longer conform to contiguous
territories, but rather to hubs, characterized by the inheritance of a
comparatively organized security apparatus, a vestigial international
status (also inherited, from the dissolving state system), and
specifically a recognized Westphalian-era territorial sovereignty,
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worldwide, but over a third of those in the Middle East, the Shia
either prevail in the Crescent, or go under. (For our purposes here
Alawites / Alevi are Shia by strategic affiliation and adoption.)
The Crescent is the site of fitna, Islam’s unsettled business, and
the time of settlement is now due. How does the balance of forces
appear?
Almost dead center in the Crescent, are spread the –
characteristically stateless – Kurds, divided between Iran, Turkey,
‘Iraq’, and ‘Syria’, and numbering perhaps 30 million (compared to
a world Shia population of roughly 200 million). Although
predominantly Sunni by confession, Kurdish nationalist aspiration
dominates over sectarian identity. It comes as relief to our cognitive
overload that they are playing a long game. We can bracket them for
the moment
To the north lies Turkey, a powerful, comparatively competent
Sunni state, marginalized by its non-Arab ethnicity. The pursuit of
neo-Ottoman ambitions at this point would draw Turkey into a
snake-pit of unimaginable pain. I think we can assume defensive
hedging from Turkey in the immediate future. If we can bracket the
Kurds – who are central to Turkey’s interests and calculations — we
can cautiously bracket Turkey as well.
To the east lies Iran, another capable state, as territorially secure
as anyone gets to be in this environment, and the wellspring of global
Shia power. Iran is already heavily invested in the Crescent War, but
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The Islamic V
Vorte
ortexx (P
(Part
art 3)
The cartoon would look something like this:
An Egyptian (or it could be a Pakistani) walks into the Bank of
America, with a hand-grenade daubed ‘Radical Islam’ taped to his ear,
and shouts out: “Hand over the money or my head gets it!”
The teller looks up and says: “You don’t have to keep doing this.
There’s a standing order to pay you $1,500,000,000 a year.”
Offended, the Egyptian replies: “But the grenade is the only
reason you respect me!”
We could try to update the joke (… “then the black lesbian bank
teller says: ‘Why are you repressing that grenade?’”) but there’s
going to be more than enough torture in this story already. It suffices
to note that in the Egyptian version of the cartoon, the grenade was
provided by the bank, and its inscription read: ‘Democracy’. We can
fast-forward straight through the explosion stage, and begin on the
far side of the ‘Arab Spring’.
So to start over, with a serious question (even if it doesn’t sound
like one): How did the first comprehensively Cathedralist
administration in American history get to implement a ruthlessly
cunning neoreactionary Middle East strategy? In the Crescent, it
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Beginning.
Mubarak was grenade-guy. He had to go. The fact that he was
using the Muslim Brotherhood in a groove-locked game of chicken
with America was far from the most serious problem. He was also
playing grenade-guy chicken with the local — uncondensed — non-
Islamist demographic. By sheltering Egypt’s educated elite from
their own bearded brethren, he was sustaining its most hopelessly
sentimental illusions about the nature of the national demos,
perpetuating democratic teleology, giving credence to the
‘international’ reform agenda, and deferring to the country’s
radically corrupted (Islamo-populist) cultural template. Breaking
with all this was something far beyond the Mubarak-circle’s political
imagination. The country had to be sprung.
Of course, the Obama master-plan remains far from complete
(even without consideration of its application to Pakistan). The
Egyptian economy is still skewed towards ruin by a deep structure of
populist subsidies, and the recently installed order of neoreactionary
legitimation has yet to be overtly proclaimed, or constitutionally
formalized.
It is nevertheless important to recognize how far things have
come. The Obamazing feint-revolutionary double-flip-back
maneuver has, in rapid succession, obliterated the accumulated
credibility of the old (‘grenade-guy’) regime, ‘moderate’ Islamist
governance, and democratic inclusion. A New Beginning already has
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August 1, 2013
The Islamic V
Vorte
ortexx (P
(Part
art 3a)
This series was preparing for the flight out from Cairo International
Airport, to go WMD hunting in the Crescent, when a call arrived
– from Fotrkd (on this thread) – turning our plans back around. It
was hard to pick out the exact message from the stream of excited
babble, but it was basically: “You’re not going to believe what Kerry
just said to the Pakistani’s …” (who, we have to remember, are next in
line for A New Beginning®.)
I’m guessing you’ve already heard it – since it’s all over the media.
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August 2, 2013
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The Islamic V
Vorte
ortexx (P
(Part
art 3b
3b))
“This time is different” is a slogan designed for derision. Greer set
me back onto it again, but it’s familiar background hum, and could
have come from anywhere. In it’s most typical usage it applies to
the psychology of business cycles, as the epitome of bubble denial,
which is to say: investor hubris. (This book might be the best known
example.) With blunt irony, it is placed in the mouth of a fool, who
is prompted to declare that things won’t turn out the same this time
around (so of course they will). It’s what somebody is expected to say
shortly before losing their shirt.
There are a few quite simple things that can be said about the
presumption, whether learned or instinctive, that things will almost
certainly not be different ‘this time’.
— It is a cognitive stance that conforms almost perfectly with the
dominant sense of ‘wisdom’.
— It is strongly aligned with the heuristic that history has important
lessons to teach us (and that the lessons of deep history are
especially profound).
— It is skeptical with respect to Utopian schemes of improvement.
— It has an emotional correlate, in aversion to enthusiasm.
— Every civilized (or even merely cultural) tradition has an
identifiable version of it.
For all these reasons, it has a reactionary bias, due to its affinity
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with everything that resists the progressive impulse and its fantastic
illusions. It remembers that change has happened before, and what
happened when it did. Even when explicit, relevant memory is
lacking, it assumes that tradition incorporates wisdom, and thus
provides a bulwark against reckless enthusiasm. It is unmistakably
biased, because there has been enough past to make it so.
The guiding maxim of Outside in – Optimize for intelligence – is
not primarily wise. Among the readers of this blog, however, wisdom
is the prevalent mode of realism, and it is displayed in crushing
abundance. When our digression into Egyptian practical neoreaction
strayed into the exultant discovery of a rare moment in which
everything changes
changes, the push-back commentary was quick, hard, and
relentlessly wise.
Learned wisdom, rooted in historical recollection, expects to be
countered, usually by fools. Of all the things that have happened
before, innumerable times, among the most common is a delirium
of novelty, accompanied by rationalizations of greater or lesser
sophistication. History is able to test doctrines of novelty, by
excavating ancestral anticipations whose very existence amounts to
a refutation. For any claim to the unprecedented, exposure to
precedents is an embarrassment that cannot easily be survived.
From an occluded future, the disturbance of wisdom can draw no
sustenance, but history offers it partial refuge, in two interconnected
ways. Firstly, it can contest the time-scale of normality, pushing
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August 3, 2013
The Islamic V
Vorte
ortexx (P
(Part
art 4)
The story that follows was stolen from somewhere, but I’ve not been
able to recover the source. It has a definite neoconservative edge to
it, which isn’t surprising given the early-nullities brain-feed it was no
doubt extracted from, but it’s neat enough to be passed on.
If Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires in space, the First
World War was the equivalent burial ground in time. The German
Second Reich, the Austro-Hungarian (Habsburg) Empire, the Russian
(Romanov) Empire, and the Turkish (Ottoman) Empire were all
interred by it. In their place arose new geopolitical entities based
upon an unstable mixture of ethno-nationalist self-determination
and moral-universalist internationalism. The role of American ideas
in the New Order – most immediately conveyed by the vehicle of
‘Wilsonism’ – was both substantial and ambiguous. A tight swirl of
Americanization and Anti-Americanism would be essential to
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more than a call to action. The story of the Undead Empires, now
freed of neoconservative excitability, has either to be discarded for
a reason, or more thoroughly explored. Despite the directionless
adventures that have attached themselves to it, the intrinsic
plausibility of the narrative itself has not, by an iota, been diminished.
This is most clearly demonstrated through simple elaboration of
the pattern. World War II was an extremely intense global conflict,
with a number of theaters simultaneously active, and total duration
of less than a decade (from the Japanese invasion of China in 1937
to the surrender of Japan in 1945). World War III, in contrast, was so
prolonged, and dilute (or ‘cold’), that it is generally considered not to
have happened at all. Between the major hostile powers, deterrence
predominated over active engagements, with the latter generally
conducted as peripheral, asymmetric conflicts. (US military deaths
approached 100,000 a year during WWII**, close to the country’s
total toll — almost entirely from Korea and Vietnam — suffered over
the 40 years of ‘WWIII’).
Of course, simple extrapolation into WWIV gets nowhere near to
a forecast. All it tells us is that there was never any reason to expect
compact, burning Armageddon. The crude trend line (counting for
nothing) projects 30,000 US military deaths over the course of a
200 year hyper-diffuse cryo-war. American narrative fundamentalist
would depart from that as the ‘norm’. Not the ‘clash’, but the slow
squelch of civilizations.
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August 5, 2013
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The Islamic V
Vorte
ortexx (P
(Part
art 5)
So – does Mecca get nuked? For the purpose of this series, that’s a
reasonable candidate for the terminal question.
A direct assault on this question stumbles quickly into a paradox
of stimulating profundity. Of all the geopolitical and religious
agencies determining the outcome, the one most theologically
predisposed to the vaporization of Islam’s spiritual center is the
Wahhabi sect, which presently controls it. The case can easily be
made that, within the limitations set by peacetime conditions, this
objective has already been pursued with spectacular ardor. (If you
noticed the Iranian media links there, save that observation.) Also
worth mentioning: it’s a necessary antecedent to the Islamic
Apocalypse (al-Qiyamah) that Mecca and the Kaaba be destroyed.
One of the factors supporting the Thirty-Years’ War analogy in
the escalating conflict between Sunni and Shia Islam is the
confidence with which we can identify the ‘Protestants’ and
‘Catholics’ in this re-run. In God and Gold (p.367), Walter Russell
Mead outlines the structure of parallelism:
Wahhabis seek to suppress the popular cults associated with
saints and others traditionally believed to intercede for believers
with God. Every soul is accountable to God for its own acts, and
there is no human mediator. Puritans similarly attacked the cults of
the Christian saints, and argued that it was vain and unbiblical to
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pray to the Virgin and the saints for their intercession with God. To
make sure such cults are suppressed, the Saudi government under
Wahhabi influence has recently destroyed mosques and monuments
in Mecca and Medina that had becomes associated with cults and
customs considered un-Islamic. Puritans, like many radical
Protestants across northern Europe, destroyed altar screens,
stained glass, statues, and other church furnishings which, in their
judgement, distracted the people from the worship of the one true
God.
Shia Islam, with its far greater tolerance for cultural ‘thickness’,
has a ‘Catholic’ alignment with heritage, tradition, and mediation.
Sunni Islam — especially in its ‘Puritanical’ or radical Wahhabi, Salafi,
and Takfiri variants, interprets intermediary forms of cultural and
political organization as manifestations of impiety (to be erased). As
with the militant Protestantism of the seventeenth century, its mode
of holy war indissolubly fuses iconoclastic theology with the armed
advance of the faith.
Radical Sunni ‘desert religion’ projects a desert as (and at) the end
of faith. It cannot be realistically expected that cultural inhibitions
on the escalation of violence will find fertile soil in this terrain. A
geographically and demographically besieged Shiism shows every
sign of counter-bidding unreservedly in its own eschatological coin.
There are other inhibitions, however. When socially disorganized
militants engage in informal warfare, the requirement that they
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branches, UK, France, Israel, and North Korea). The path leaves little
room for controversy. In strict succession, driven by linear threat-
response at each stage, it runs USA, USSR, China, India, Pakistan …
and already we have an Islamic bomb. It is crucial to note at this
point that each link in nuclear dominoes (after the first) has to be
Janus faced. The potential conflict that provoked each stage of
proliferation is quite different to the one that triggers the next. For
instance, the Indian bomb, clearly responding to that of China, is
now primarily understood through the successor stage, in which the
nuclear arsenals of India and Pakistan are weighed against each
other in strategic calculations. Similarly, Pakistan’s Islamic bomb
(when related to India’s Hindu bomb) has to be re-conceived as a
Sunni bomb on its other face, envisaged from the Greater Middle
East, where a Shia bomb is the obvious threat-response — the next
domino.
It is important to stress that this is where the Iranian nuclear
program comes from. American and Israeli optics tend to distract
from the regional logic of proliferation. However politically
convenient it may be for Iranian leaders to publicly proclaim that
their bomb (which, of course, they have no intention whatsoever of
building) is designed solely to kill Jews, or to drive Americans out
of the Gulf, it is in fact overwhelmingly necessitated by the fact that
a Sunni bomb already exists, next door. A nuclear Iran means,
fundamentally, a balance of threat between Sunni and Shia power
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August 6, 2013
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Great Games …
… you have planned, shame if something bad were to happen to them.
Tyler Durden (of Zero Hedge) casts some harsh light on the lead
up to WWIV recent diplomatic engagement between Saudi Arabia
and Russia — countries that seem to be uniquely serious about the
outcome of the Islamic civil(izational) war. Roughly a month ago,
these countries had a less than complete meeting of minds on the
future of the region. TD quotes Al-Monitor on the conclusion: “At the
end of the meeting, the Russian and Saudi sides agreed to continue
talks, provided that the current meeting remained under wraps. This
was before one of the two sides leaked it via the Russian press.”
Since we know all about this, it means no more talks, an implicit
warning that the Chechens operating in proximity to Sochi may just
become a loose cannon (with Saudi’s blessing of course), and that
about a month ago “there
there is no escape from the military option,
because it is the only currently aavailable
vailable choice givgiven
en that the
political settlement ended in stalemate.
stalemate.” Four weeks later, we are
on the edge of all out war, which may involve not only the US and
Europe, but most certainly Saudi Arabia and Russia which
automatically means China as well. Or, as some may call it, the world.
Russian leverage is aligned with inertia, so it can be exercised with
some subtlety. The Saudis, on the other hand, are in an awkward
spot: they either back down, or they have to make ‘a splash’. Anyone
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Yesterda
esterday’s
y’s News
“The missile strikes the White House is contemplating would
advance Syria’s dissolution,” writes Steven A. Cook in the
Washington Post.
What is this ‘Syria’ of which you speak?
Such senseless language should have been dismissed from the
practical lexicon by now. It belongs strictly to history books.
Between the Mediterranean coast of the northern Levant and the
Iranian border, the internationally-recognized state system exists
only as a set of tokens in diplomatic games. It isn’t coming back.
This article (and book) will be seen as astonishingly prescient
soon, and deserves to be already.
September 1, 2013
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another. Now Islamists are once again declaring jihad on each other.
In June the New Y York
ork Times reported on an influential Sunni cleric
who “has issued a fatwa, or religious decree, calling on Muslims
around the world to help Syrian rebels… and labeling Hezbollah and
Iran” — both Shi’ite — “enemies of Islam ‘more infidel than Jews and
Christians.'” David Gardner’s Financial Times piece tells of a
“conclave of Sunni clerics meeting in Cairo [that] declared a jihad
against what it called a ‘declaration of war on Islam’ by the ‘Iranian
regime, Hezbollah and its sectarian allies’.”
How should the West react to all this? With quiet rejoicing. Our
strategic objective should be to get Islamists to expend their
energies on each other rather than on us. An old aphorism says the
problem with Balkans is that they produce more history than they
can consume locally. Our goal should be to encourage the Muslim
world to consume all its history — of which it will be producing a good
deal — as locally as possible. Think of it as “farm to table” war.
All we should do, or can do, to obtain this objective is to stay out.
We ought not meddle, no matter how subtly; if we do, inevitably, it
will blow up in our faces. Just go home, stay home, bolt the doors
(especially to refugees who will act out their jihads here) …
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Buy
Buy/b
/byye P
Petrodollar
etrodollar
The master jigsaw puzzle piece connecting US domestic and foreign
policy together is the petrodollar. Federal debt production depends
upon credibility in the US currency that is anchored by its privileged
role in global hydrocarbons commerce. Knock out that privilege, and
US dollar holdings become one speculative asset among others. The
fiat house of cards begins to tumble (perhaps with shocking rapidity).
In this context, US monetary policy begins to look like a side-line
of ‘friendship’ with the Saudis, which is dissolving into quick sand.
Pepe Escobar at AToL explores some of the possible consequences.
(It’s especially notable that the fracking revolution could accelerate
a petrodollar crisis, rather than retarding it.) There’s also a China
angle, which is always fun.
Disconcertingly for almost everybody, in different ways, the
awkward retraction of US power from the Middle Eastern wasps’
nest tends inevitably to destabilize the global monetary regime. The
more the Saudis feel jilted, the less their commitment to the
petrodollar pact, but if this was ever a low-maintenance relationship,
it certainly isn’t anymore.
Bomb Iran or your currency bombs. — Things might not quite
reduce to that yet, but it increasingly looks as if they will.
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Islam. If sodomy is the only way to reach this pinnacle of Islam, then
there is no harm in it.
Allahpundit estimates:
Odds that this is a prank played on the credulous host by some
viewer, possibly the MEMRI guys themselves, who simply couldn’t
resist: 40 percent. Odds that it’s a legit query, proof that the
mujahedeen’s willingness to sacrifice for jihad has taken on painful
new dimensions: 40 percent. Odds that the guy posing the question
is the world’s dumbest would-be terrorist, whose “recruiter” is really,
really eager to start “training” him: 20 percent.
Pla
Playyed
Has Obama Administration geostrategy been based upon a cunning
(and secret) plan? Richard Fernandez makes the case that a covert
American attempt to subvert radical Islam crested with the
September 11, 2012, Benghazi fiasco. Employing a mix of infiltration,
drone assassination (to clear promotion paths), and calculated
regime sacrifices (Egypt, Syria), the objective was to reforge an
international Jihad under covert US control. When the take-over
plan went south, nothing could be publicly admitted. Cascading
failure has continued in the shadows ever since, jutting into media
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Fernandez digs much deeper than Carney, but this is still worth
adding.
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The Islamic V
Vorte
ortexx (Map
(Map))
Having seen this a few times now (most recently here, where it’s
described as a “five-year plan”), I decided I just had to have it.
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The Islamic V
Vorte
ortexx (Map-2)
This will be needed when we get back to the topic (eventually):
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The Islamic V
Vorte
ortexx (Note-1)
An executive summary of Ali Khedery’s open letter to President
Obama: Face it, ISIS is your ally bro.
The Islamic V
Vorte
ortexx (Note-2)
The claim that modern Sunni ‘fundamentalism’ (Salafism,
Wahhabism) is the Islamic Reformation is well-established (this blog
has grazed upon the background here). The persistence of this
proposition attests to its significance, and is at least suggestive of
credibility. It can reasonably be placed alongside the Moldbug Ultra-
Calvinism Thesis (on the cladistic identity of ‘secular’ democratic
progressivism) as a central religious-historical argument, of
profound relevance to the cultural tendencies of our time.
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The Islamic V
Vorte
ortexx (Note-3)
Asabiyyah is an Arabic word for a reason. Unlike many of my allies on
the extreme right, I see no point at all in other cultures attempting to
emulate it. The idea of a contemporary Western asabiyyah is roughly
as probable as the emergence of Arabic libertarian capitalism. In any
case, ISIS has it now, which means they have to keep fighting, and will
probably keep winning. Asabiyyah is useless for anything but war,
and it dissolves into dust with peace. The only glories Islam will ever
know going forward will be found on the battlefield, and it is fully
aware of the fact.
Baghdad will almost certainly have fallen by the end of the year,
or early next. The Caliphate will then be reborn, in an incarnation far
more ferocious than the last. Its existence will coincide with a war,
extending far beyond Mesopotamia and the Levant, at least through
the Middle East, into the Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent,
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Reignition
across the Maghreb, and deep into Africa. If the Turks are not
terrified about what is coming, they have no understanding of the
situation. This is what the global momentum behind militant
‘Islamism’ across recent decades has been about. Realistically, it’s
unstoppable.
Eventually, it will bleed out, and then Islam will have done the last
thing of which it is capable. No less than tens of millions will be dead.
Other, industrially-competent and technologically-sophisticated
civilizations have no cause for existential panic, although mega-
terrorist attacks could hurt them. Any efforts they make to pacify
the Caliphate-war will be futile, at best. It is a piece of fate now. The
future will have to be built around it.
Patrick Poole writes (at the link above, repeated here):
The US Embassy in Baghdad is the largest embassy on the planet.
And after Obama sent 350 more U.S. military personnel to guard
the U.S. Embassy last month, there are now more than 1,100 US
service members in Baghdad protecting the embassy and the airport.
That doesn’t include embassy personnel, American aid workers, and
reporters also in Baghdad. ISIS doesn’t have to capture the airport
to prevent flights from taking off there (remember Hamas rockets
from Gaza prompting the temporary closure of Israel’s Ben Gurion
Airport this past summer). If flights can’t get out of Baghdad, how will
the State Department and Pentagon evacuate U.S. personnel? An
image like the last helicopter out of Saigon would be of considerable
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The Islamic V
Vorte
ortexx (Note-3a)
This blog has doubtless generated rafts of unreliable predictions. The
one that has been nagging, however — ever since Scott Alexander
called me out on it in the comment thread there — was advanced
in the most recent sub-episode of this series. Quote: “Baghdad will
almost certainly have fallen by the end of the year, or early next.”
Even if the time horizon for this event is stretched out to the end
of March 2015, I have very low confidence in it being realized. The
analysis upon which it was based was crucially flawed. I’m getting
my crow-eating in early (and even if — by some improbably twist of
fortune — ISIS is in control of Baghdad by late March next year, it
won’t be any kind of vindication for the narrative I was previously
spinning.)
Where did I go wrong (in my own eyes)? Fundamentally, by hugely
over-estimating the intelligence of ISIS. The collapse of this inflated
opinion is captured by a single word: Kurds.
Just a few months ago, ISIS enjoyed a strategic situation of
extraordinary potential. It represented the most militant — and thus
authentic — strain of Arab Sunni Jihad, ensuring exceptional morale,
flows of volunteers from across the Sunni Muslim world, and funding
from the gulf oil-states, based upon impregnable legitimacy. It was
able to recruit freely from the only constituency within Iraq with
any military competence — the embittered remnants of Saddam’s
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December 3, 2014
The Islamic V
Vorte
ortexx (Note-4)
So the Islamic State has executed their captive Jordanian pilot, Lt
Moaz al-Kasasbehby, by burning him alive. The event was artfully
videotaped and maximally publicized. It was an act undertaken with
an extraordinary degree of intent.
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no right to call me a murderer. You have a right to kill me. You have a
right to do that … but you have no right to judge me. It’s impossible
for words to describe what is necessary to those who do not know
what horror means. Horror … Horror has a face … and you must make
a friend of horror. Horror and moral terror are your friends. If they
are not, then they are enemies to be feared. They are truly enemies!
I remember when I was with Special Forces … seems a thousand
centuries ago. We went into a camp to inoculate some children. We
left the camp after we had inoculated the children for polio, and
this old man came running after us and he was crying. He couldn’t
see. We went back there, and they had come and hacked off every
inoculated arm. There they were in a pile. A pile of little arms. And I
remember … I … I … I cried, I wept like some grandmother. I wanted to
tear my teeth out; I didn’t know what I wanted to do! And I want to
remember it. I never want to forget it … I never want to forget. And
then I realized … like I was shot … like I was shot with a diamond … a
diamond bullet right through my forehead. And I thought, my God …
the genius of that! The genius! The will to do that! Perfect, genuine,
complete, crystalline, pure. And then I realized they were stronger
than we, because they could stand that these were not monsters,
these were men … trained cadres. These men who fought with their
hearts, who had families, who had children, who were filled with love
… but they had the strength … the strength … to do that. If I had ten
divisions of those men, our troubles here would be over very quickly.
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You have to have men who are moral … and at the same time who
are able to utilize their primordial instincts to kill without feeling …
without passion … without judgment … without judgment! Because
it’s judgment that defeats us.
ADDED: “I love the smell of napalm in the morning …”
February 4, 2015
Coming Soon
The trailer for the ISIS jihad-porn blockbuster Flames of War is quite
something.
The Rubin Report-embedded version. “They’re clearly trying to
bring us into a fight …”
ADDED: A little background from the International Business
Times:
The new video, titled “Flames of War,” was released late Tuesday
by the Al Hayat Media Center, which, according to the Washington-
based Middle East Media Research Institute, was established in May
as the media arm of the Islamic State. […] The 52-second-long video,
which, at first glance, seems more like a video-game trailer, is replete
with slow-motion effects and high-definition images. It shows
exploding tanks and Islamic State militants apparently preparing to
execute captives before the words “Flames of War” flash on the
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screen, followed by the words, “Fighting has just begun.” And, before
the screen fades to black, the video ends with the words, “Coming
Soon.”
Progress (III)
(Via.)
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Moors La
Laww
Derbyshire cited some statistics from this exponential demographic
calamity article, which are truly remarkable:
Figures from the 2011 census show that the Muslim population
in the UK has substantially risen between 2001 and 2011 from 1.5
million to almost 3 million
million. This now takes the proportion of Muslims
from 2% of the population to 5%. In some towns, Muslims make up
almost 50% of the population, and in large cities like London and
Manchester they make up around 14% of the population. But why
has the number of Muslims risen so much and what are the
implications? […] There are several reasons why the number of
Muslims has doubled. […] … By the ne next
xt census Muslims ma mayy eevven
double again and mak makee up 10% of the population
population. These statistics
encourage us to think more carefully about the provisions made for
British Muslims and the ways in which they are an integral part of the
nation. [Emphasis in original.]
(It ‘encourages’ me to think of different things entirely.)
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Britannica and even Pax Romana. Imperial order isn’t a tidy or pretty
business. It was, however, something, and it’s very rapidly ceasing to
be.
Powerful nonlinear dynamics are triggered at certain critical
points of systemic transformation. The positive network effects that
induced powers great and small to buy into a credible world order
switch into reverse, with every defection making the value of
continued adherence less convincing to everyone else. In Europe and
East Asia the defection dominoes have yet to cascade, and the slow
work of fundamental subversion proceeds at a misleadingly languid
pace. In the Middle East, in sharp contrast, little remains of the
preferred American status quo beyond a ghastly husk. It’s hard to see
any way back.
America’s traditional regional lynch-pin allies — Israel, Egypt,
Saudi Arabia, and Turkey — are united (only) in alienation. The most
important structural reason for this, beyond the inexorable decline
of American global management capability, and coherent options for
intervention, rumbles beneath the surface of this WSJ article.
Everything the US is still trying to accomplish in the region is pushing
it into deeper complicity with the Teheran regime — whether on the
specific issue of the Iranian nuclear program, operations against ISIS,
or involvement in Yemen — and this makes it an objective antagonist
of the Sunni establishment. A deep Sunni reformation — in the most
blood-drenched sense of the word — is unfolding in the region, and
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Context.
Everyone in my twitter bubble seems impressed by the aesthetics,
but the smart money is on ClarkHat getting to the finish line first:
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Iconoclasm
There goes Nimrud.
“The final images on the video show the final, total destruction of
one of the world’s most important archaeological sites.”
Geo-Engineering
This looks like a plan:
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ISIS on P
Paris
aris
The ‘Daesh’* statement on the attack (in full):
In the name of Allah, the all merciful, the very merciful Allah the
great said: and they thought in truth that their fortresses would
defend them against Allah. But Allah came to them from where they
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among the martyrs and allow us to meet them. And France and those
who follow its way must know that there are still principle targets
left for the Islamic State and that they [France] will continue to smell
death for having taken the lead in the crusade [in Syria] after having
insulted our Prophet, after they’ve flaunted their fight against Islam
in France, and beaten our Muslim brothers in Caliphate land with
their planes that were useless in the smelly streets of Paris. This
attack is only the beginning of the storm and a warning for those who
want to ponder and learn a lesson. […] Allah is great, the strength
belongs to Allah and His messenger and believers, but the hypocrites
do not know it. Sourat 63, verse 8.
(Source, with French original.)
* Conflicted here on whether to switch over to that name. Any
suggestions?
The Management of Sa
Savagery
vagery
Is this strategic guide to Jihad by Abu Bakr Naji the equivalent of
Mao Zedong’s On Guerrilla Warfare (link) for our time?
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Peak Jacobinism
It’s an over-used formula, but this time it really does seem
appropriate. If this analysis can be trusted — and it looks at least
superficially plausible — ISIS has broken the soul of evangelical
democratization. Once the Cathedral’s universalistic faith has been
defeated (“the freedom agenda in the Muslim world is dead”), how
long can it be before the gathering ebb tide tears apart its internal
ideological structure? “This is something only for us” requires an ‘us’
— and that acknowledgement marks the cresting of a crisis that has
been centuries — if not millennia — in the making.
Syria represents the culmination of this trend. The moderate
rebels of 2011 stood no chance of survival against the hard liners
who managed to rapidly mobilize foreign fighters and take over the
majority of the insurgency. The result is that, post-Paris, Western
capitals will be skeptical of regime change of any sort. It will be clear
that when intervention in the internal affairs of sovereign (albeit
repressive) states becomes a vehicle for democratic change, that
vehicle will probably be hijacked by radical Islamists, and will arrive
at a substantially worse political destination than intended.
The post-Paris war on terror will affirm the West’s commitment to
fighting radical Islamic terrorism, but, in the process, it will reject the
idiom of revolutionary, moralizing democratic change inherited from
President Bush. Syria was the end of the line for that approach.
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The revolution has come right back around to Hobbes, and thus
to the systematically-cynical origin of the modern state system, the
author (Emile Simpson) argues. What a long strange trip it’s been.
(Via.)
ADDED: “… jihadis have come to inhabit a different moral
universe …” — Multiversalism it is, then.
The Islamic V
Vorte
ortexx (Note-5)
Michael Klare takes a look at the Islamic State logistics train (bullish
for US defense stocks):
In the years after invading Iraq and disbanding Saddam Hussein’s
military, the U.S. sunk about $25 billion into “standing up” a new Iraqi
army. By June 2014, however, that army, filled with at least 50,000
“ghost soldiers,” was only standing in the imaginations of its generals
and perhaps Washington. When relatively small numbers of Islamic
State (IS) militants swept into northern Iraq, it collapsed, abandoning
four cities — including Mosul, the country’s second largest — and
leaving behind enormous stores of U.S. weaponry, ranging from
tanks and Humvees to artillery and rifles. In essence, the U.S. was
now standing up its future enemy in a style to which it was
unaccustomed and, unlike the imploded Iraqi military, the forces of
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June 2, 2015
The Islamic V
Vorte
ortexx (Note-6)
Why (sane) non-Muslims hate Islam, made simple:
So, Islam was established as a polygynous system, meaning it
created a wife shortage among believers. But raiding non-believers
who do not submit to Muslim rule was sanctified and taking their
women for your sexual use was also sanctified. So, sexual frustration
generated by Sharia marriage rules was then explicitly directed
outwards towards the non-believers who have not submitted to
Muslim rule. The ghazis raiding across the frontier into “the lands
of unbelief” which were such a feature of the borders of Islam for
over a millennia represented Islam sanctifying (and so intensifying)
patterns of typical of polygyny; polygyny that it also sanctified.
All dithering aside, it’s an inter-culturally aggressive rape
machine, by essence.
ADDED: “The problem, ultimately, is this …”
ADDED:
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December 3, 2015
The Islamic V
Vorte
ortexx (Note-7)
Robin Wright (in The New Yorker) expresses the frustrations of a
modern Jacobin about as straightforwardly as one could hope:
What seems to have been lost in the past five years is American
strategic support for the Arab Spring’s aspirations — and for the
innumerable other Bouazizis still struggling for rights and justice and
jobs. One of Obama’s boldest decisions, in 2011, was to abandon
longstanding U.S. support for Arab despots, personified in President
Hosni Mubarak, who ruled Egypt ruthlessly for thirty years. For the
first time, Washington opted for the unknowns of potential
democracy over the guarantees of autocratic stability in the Arab
world.
A speaker for HRW is even clearer about the ideological lineage
at stake (and it isn’t anything coming out of the Middle East):
Each local crisis has been complicated by regional players who
have intervened to block a new Arab order. “It’s no longer about
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The Islamic V
Vorte
ortexx (Note-8)
Yuletide comedy supplement:
The four core elements of Obama’s Syria policy remain intact
today: an insistence that Assad must go; that no anti-IS coalition with
Russia is possible; that Turkey is a steadfast ally in the war against
terrorism; and that there really are significant moderate opposition
forces for the US to support.
(The entire essay is a valuable American Proxy Civil-War primer.)
The Islamic V
Vorte
ortexx (Note-9)
Fernandez:
One man who understood the power of “Salafi jihadism” was
Saddam Hussein, who according to Kyle Orton, writing in the New
York Times, understood long before Obama that secular socialism
was no match for a full-bore jihadism which had endured the test of
centuries. “The Arab nationalist Baath Party, which seized power in
1968 in a coup in which Mr. Hussein played a key role, had a firmly
secular outlook. This held through the 1970s, even as religiosity rose
among the Iraqi people. But soon after Mr. Hussein invaded Iran in
1980, it began to change.”
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The Islamic V
Vorte
ortexx (Note-10)
According to the geo-economic logic of the dying status quo, the
Islamic Vortex supported oil prices by injecting menace into the
supply chain. Peaks of turbulence were associated with oil shocks.
‘Middle East peace initiatives’ (or more drastic interventions) were
so deeply entwined with oil supply security imperatives as to be
scarcely distinguishable.
Not anymore:
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calculations, the Iranian enemy will simply use oil revenues to pursue
their geopolitical objectives more competently than the Saudis can
themselves. A higher oil price, therefore, is comparatively
advantageous to the Shia bloc (at least in the eyes of the Saudis,
whose perceptions in this regard uniquely matter, due to their status
as sole swing-producer). Any rise in revenues is overwhelmed by the
quantity of additional military challenge it brings with it. This holds
true whatever the level of social stress a low price inflicts on the
Sunni side.
It’s quite a box the Saudis find themselves in. There’s no way out
of it that doesn’t require winning a religious war.
The Islamic V
Vorte
ortexx (Note-11)
Could the escalating Sunni-Shia War (intensified by the fracking
revolution) take out Saudi Arabia?
(Cold Western indifference would be nice.)
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Reignition
The Islamic V
Vorte
ortexx (Note-12)
Everything is proceeding as foreseen.
“They say all Sunnis are Daesh, but it isn’t true,” said former truck
driver Jassem Nouri, 50. Nouri has spent the past two years living on
a building site in the northeast of Salahuddin province; his home, in
the Sunni village of Salman Beg, is just six miles away, but the Shiite
militias that ejected the Islamic State from the area over two years
ago have refused to allow any of the residents to return. Last year,
his two sons, former university students, were detained by masked
men in unmarked uniforms and accused of working with the Islamic
State. Nouri insists that they are innocent, but he has not been able
to secure their release. […] “The one thing that is breaking my heart
is that my sons are in jail and I can’t prove their innocence,” he said.
“If this government doesn’t change, there will never be security and
stability in Iraq, just an endless blind revenge.”
No one has the slightest (realistic) idea what equilibrium would
even look like. The Sunni-Shia war has no end short of utter
exhaustion. For everyone else, staying mostly out of it — and keeping
it out — has to be the basic principle of strategic wisdom.
ADDED: From The Economist — “Horrifyingly, although home to
only 5% of the world’s population, in 2014 the Arab world accounted
for 45% of the world’s terrorism, 68% of its battle-related deaths,
47% of its internally displaced and 58% of its refugees.”
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707
Reignition
708
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709
Reignition
SECTION D - IMMIGRA
IMMIGRATION
TION
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Discrimination II
It would be hard to find a clearer illustration of the topic than this
article (written from the vehemently discrimination-negative left).
The stakes are so clear that detailed commentary is entirely otiose.
Some snippets:
The contrast was stark. One group of South Asians had become
objects of fear and derision and targets of immigration enforcement
and extra-legal violence. Another group of South Asians was being
heralded for their social, economic, and cultural contributions to the
United States. … the complexities that lay beneath the surface of
“South Asian” identity were flattened into a powerful binary; South
711
Reignition
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713
Reignition
Hell, yeah.
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Ethnomasochism
Arguments that indiscriminate immigration is socially beneficial are
too widespread to pick upon in detail — spend any time over at The
Economist or, for the full-throttle ‘altruistic’ version, Bryan Caplan’s
place, to be inundated in them. It’s hard to see how a lack of
selectivity could ever be advantageous from the perspective of the
demographic recipient, but the whole discussion evades a far more
toxic problem. If a case for the mass implantation of unscreened
foreign populations is couched in the language of self-interest —
however misguidedly — it can, at least potentially, be engaged rather
than merely diagnosed. (This blog has no problem with immigration
in general whatsoever.)
Far more disturbing to any surviving assumptions about sane
social policy decisions is the very different argument (exemplified
by the Cathedral-crazed second questioner in this clip (via)) that
immigration is a punishment to be embraced, in a form of religiously-
intoxicated, collective self-flagellation, to scourge the sin-blackened
Occident, unendingly, for its ineliminable historical crimes. This is
ethnomasochism in its purest instantiation, and argument is wholly
irrelevant against it. Such moral-religious convulsants do not want
‘good’ (productive, orderly, talented, aspirational) immigration. They
want the lash. No ‘racist’ profile of potential immigrant groups can be
vicious enough to elicit aversion, on the contrary — the more harm
715
Reignition
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peak of adulation for Merkel before reality set in, she was widely
praised for personifying European values by de-Europeanizing
Europe.
How would one even begin to argue with anything said here?
There’s a lot in this short passage, but nothing that isn’t obviously
true, to everyone, which accounts — perhaps — for the fact that it is
nevertheless almost unthinkably controversial.
It would be a relief to see Merkel awarded the 2016 Nobel Peace
Prize for her contribution to the ruin of Europe. If not honest — or
anything close — it would at least attain meta-honesty, by defining
‘peace’ explicitly as the suppression of truth.
February 1, 2016
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Reignition
didn’t enter a feminist Nirvana, but paved the way for an unfolding
Islamic hell.
Give feminist ideology a voice in security policy, and the gates are
thrown open. The evo-psych behind this is dark, but compelling.
It’s past time to move it from the ‘provocative speculations’ to the
‘hard cold facts’ folder.
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Tsunami
Either Europe is absorbed into Africa or at some point it learns,
pitilessly, to say ‘no’. Neither alternative is likely to be remotely
pretty.
The 21st century would probably be a good time to be
somewhere else.
… two years ago the United Nations Population Division released
a shocking update to their population projections, revising the
forecast for the continent of Africa upward to 4.2 billion in 2100
from 1.1 billion today. […] That is about a half dozen times greater
than the population of Europe. […] Africa is almost certainly not
going to add over three billion residents over the next 85 years.
Something else will happen instead …
For an example of how ugly it looks — in the eyes of polite opinion
— to get anywhere close to realism on the topic, try this. It’s
unthinkable! So, by far the most likely outcome is that Europe buries
its head in the sand until it is already deep into existential crisis,
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Reignition
then lurches into some new and even more hysterical version of its
traditionally-favored fascist ‘solution’. Quite probably, it will get to
lose another World War before the complete extinction of its
civilization.
(If there’s a positive spin to put on this glacial catastrophe, don’t
hesitate to share it in the comments.)
All Ov
Over
er
Peter Hitchens has given up, on immigration (as well as everything
else):
Once [illegal immigrants are] in, our own treasured freedoms
work against us. Thanks to centuries of island freedom, when we
were able to decide who came in and who didn’t, it is far easier to
disappear in Britain than in almost any other country in the world.
We’ll abolish those freedoms in the end, alas, but it won’t do any
good. […] And now the expensive navies of the EU are ferrying
thousands more across the Mediterranean each week. The people-
smugglers are saving a fortune on fuel, for they know their victims
will be picked up before they are halfway across, in what are
misleadingly described as ‘rescues’. […] The only thing that will stop
the flow is when the EU countries, including ours, become so like the
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places these people are fleeing from that there is no point in coming
any more.
Policy Migr
Migration
ation
Hints of queasiness from open borders advocate Nathan Smith:
A couple of years ago, I wrote a post called “The American Polity
Can Endure and Flourish Under Open Borders.” I would not write
that post today. The American polity might endure and flourish
under open borders, but I wouldn’t claim that confidently. What
changed my mind? A greater familiarity with the theoretical models
that are the basis for “double world GDP” as a claim about the global
economic impact of open borders, especially my own. It turns out
that these estimates depend on billions of people migrating
internationally under open borders. … I do not think the US polity
is robust enough to absorb 1 billion immigrants (even, say, over the
course of fifty years) and retain its basic political character and
structure.
The large, link-dense text that follows is sure to stir up some
excitement among border-stripping libertarians. As a political
science fiction scenario, it has much to recommend it (including some
fragmentation features that the Outer Right might find suprisingly
721
Reignition
appealing).
Exponential
Do try to keep up:
German authorities expect up to 1.5 million asylum seekers to
arrive in Germany this year, the Bild daily said in a report to be
published on Monday, up from a previous estimate of 800,000 to 1
million.
Whatever it is that’s happening here should be over fairly quickly.
Also worth noting: “The authorities’ report also cited concerns
that those who are granted asylum will bring their families over to
Germany too, Bild said. […] Given family structures in the Middle
East, this would mean each individual from that region who is
granted asylum bringing an average of four to eight family members
over to Germany in due course, Bild quoted the report as saying.” (So
we can crank the binary exponent up by another 2-3 notches straight
away.)
October 5, 2015
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Div
Diverse
erse Opinions
Americans of Indian ancestry seem to be having a disproportionate
impact on the horizons of ‘sensitive’ debates at the moment. Techno-
commercial secession and eugenic immigration in a single week.
Diversity clearly has an up-side.
November 7, 2013
723
Reignition
December 8, 2015
Wh
Whyy Ir
Iran?
an?
The blog obviously isn’t coming from where Scott Aaronson is, and
the title of this post isn’t even centrally his question, so I’m asking it.
If you were trying to discredit a demographic policy that
discriminated against Islamization, the thing rolled out by the US
administration looks like a good way to do it. Shouldn’t selecting
against Salafism be the policy core? Such a stance could be easily
based upon solid American precedent. This looks like something else
entirely. (It’s a dog’s breakfast, which is to say hastily hashed-up
populism food.)
ADDED: The flip-side to Scott Aaronson’s concerns (from his own
724
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comment thread).
February 5, 2017
725
Reignition
SECTION E - EXIT
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Lure of the V
Void
oid (P
(Part
art 1)
The F
Frontier
rontier of Disillusionment
727
Reignition
728
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729
Reignition
plenty to build upon. The world’s publishers and book shops have
long accommodated their classification systems to the sleazy
ambiguity of the ‘science fiction / fantasy genre’, in which futurism
smears into oneirism, and the vestiges of hard SF programs
(telecommunication satellites, moon bases, space elevators…) are
scattered amongst fantastic elves-in-space mythologies (from Star
Wars to Avatar). Competitive prophecies decay into polemical
allegories, making statements about anything and everything except
the shape of the future.
Of all the cultural ripples from the truncation of the Apollo-era
space trajectory, none is more telling than the rising popularity of
‘Moon Hoax’ conspiracy theorizing. Not satisfied with the
prospective evacuation of the heavens, the moon hoaxers began
systematically editing space-travelers out of the past, beginning with
the lunar landings. Whilst clearly maddening to space technologists,
American patriots, NASA supporters, and sensible types in general,
this form of ‘denialism’ is not only historically comprehensible, but
even inevitable. If nobody seriously contests the fact that Columbus
reached the New World, it is at least in part because what was then
started kept happening. Something began, and continued. Nothing
comparable can be said about the process of lunar colonization, and
that, in itself, is a provocative oddity. When forecasts are
remembered, abandoned outcomes can be expected to mess up
memories.
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She elaborates:
731
Reignition
The orbiters are silent now, waiting for the last awkward
journey that will take them to the museums that will
warehouse the grandest of our civilization’s failed dreams.
There will be no countdown, no pillar of flame to punch them
through the atmosphere and send them whipping around the
planet at orbital speeds. All of that is over. …In the final
analysis, space travel was simply the furthest and most
characteristic offshoot of industrial civilization, and
depended — as all of industrial civilization depends — on vast
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733
Reignition
734
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735
Reignition
the moon a full 9 meters further out. For intuitive purchase upon
more expansive space visions, however, a re-calibration is required.
It makes sense to model the earth as a small apple (8.5 cm in
diameter), because then an astronomical unit (AU, the mean earth-
sun distance of roughly 150 million kilometers, 93 million miles, or
500 light seconds) shrinks to a kilometer, with the sun represented
by a sphere a little over 10 meters in diameter. The moon now lies
less than 2.7 meters out from our toy earth, but Mars is never less
than 400 meters away, the nearest asteroids a kilometer away. The
distance to the edge of the planetary solar system (Neptune) is at
least 29 kilometers, and within this spatial volume (a sphere of
roughly 113,400 AU³), less than one part in 27 billion is anything
other than desolate vacuum, with almost all the rest being solar
furnace. On the toy scale, the outer edge of the solar system, and the
Oort cloud, lies 50,000 kilometers from the earth. The distance from
our shriveled apple to the nearest star, Proxima Centauri, is 277,600
toy kilometers (or 41.5 trillion real ones).
If space colonization is being construed as an escape from
terrestrial resource constraints, then a pattern of activity needs to
be knitted across these distances, producing — at a minimum — an
energy surplus. In a non-frictional kinetic system, governed almost
purely by (macroscopic) conservation of momentum, the basic
currency of space activity is ‘delta-v’, or the transformation of
velocity. Delta-v is broadly proportional to energy expenditure on
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737
Reignition
Lure of the V
Void
oid (P
(Part
art 2)
738
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739
Reignition
740
BLOCK 3 - POLITICAL THEORY
741
Reignition
They conclude:
742
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743
Reignition
744
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745
Reignition
September 6, 2012
Lure of the V
Void
oid (P
(Part
art 3a)
746
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747
Reignition
What should the payload be? It does not matter. That is the
point. This is not about getting a useful payload into space:
That is almost irrelevant. It is about guaranteeing a market
for companies offering launch services to get things going.
I mean this totally. If we could think of nothing better to
launch, concrete blocks would be fine. My philosophy is:
Launching an ything is good. — Paul Almond
anything
748
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749
Reignition
gravity can now be seen as no more than the first step in a more
thorough, antagonistic contestation with gravity and its works.
Asteroids and comets are being pulverized, quarried, or bored into
sponges, leaving moons, planets, and the sun itself as the local
problems of interest. Such bodies are ‘problems’ because they
deform space with gravity wells, which trap resources, but their
status as development obstacles can be abstracted further. These
worlds, at least partially isolated from the emerging deep-space
commercium by their own mass, have been shaped by gravity into
approximate spheres, which is to say – from the developmental
perspective – into the very worst shapes that are mathematically
possible, since they minimize the ratio of (reactive) surface to
volume, and thus restrict resource accessibility to the greatest
conceivable extent. Way out there, in deep space and the deep
future, the gathering developmental impulse is to go full Vogon, and
demolish them completely.
When seen from outside, planets are burial sites, where precious
minerals are interred. By digging through the earth’s mantle, for
instance, all the way down to its interior end, 3,000km beneath the
surface, one reaches a high-pressure iron-nickel deposit over
6,500km in diameter – a planet-vaulted metal globe roughly
160,000,000,000 cubic kilometers in size, doped by enough gold and
platinum to coat the entire surface of the earth to a depth of half
a meter. To a moderately advanced off-world civilization, pondering
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751
Reignition
752
BLOCK 3 - POLITICAL THEORY
are people, sincere people, good people, who strongly oppose our
plans to deliberately disintegrate the earth. I understand that, really
I do, you know – honestly – I used to feel that way myself, not so long
ago. I, too, wanted to believe that it was possible to leave this world in
one piece, just as it has been for four billion years now. I, too, thought
the old ways were probably best, that this planet was the place we
belonged, that we should – and could — still find some alternative
to pulling it apart. I remember those dreams, really I do, and I still
hold them close to my heart. But, people, they were just dreams, old
and noble dreams, but dreams, and today I’m here to tell you that
we have to wake up. Planets aren’t our friends. They’re speed-bumps
on the road to the future, and we simply can’t afford them anymore.
Let’s back them up digitally, with respect, yes, even with love, and
then let’s get to work…” [Thunderous applause]
Since, during the present stage of extraterrestrial ambition,
pandering to the partisans of cosmic disintegrationism cannot
reasonably be conceived as a sure-fire election winner, it is only to
be expected that rhetoric of this kind has been muted. Yet, in the
absence of some such vision, or consistently extrapolated alignment
with anti-gravity, the off-planet impulse is condemned to
arbitrariness, insubstantiality, and insincerity of expression. Absent
an uncompromised sense of something else, why not stick to this?
The result has been, perhaps predictably, a reign of near-silence on
the topic of extraterrestrial projects, even in regard to its most
753
Reignition
754
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755
Reignition
756
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Lure of the V
Void
oid (P
(Part
art 3b
3b))
757
Reignition
758
BLOCK 3 - POLITICAL THEORY
759
Reignition
760
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761
Reignition
762
BLOCK 3 - POLITICAL THEORY
before further calculations get started. Out in space, the Rift is the
bottom line: a cold, anti-umbilical reality.
Whatever the historic colonial impetus to the American way –
separation and social re-foundation – is reinforced by orders of
magnitude in LEO and beyond. This is an environment that might
have been precision-engineered for revolutionary colonialism, as
science fiction writers have long recognized. On the flip side lies a
more obviously explanatory conclusion: Because developments
beyond the Rift are inherently uncontrollable, there is no readily
discernible motivation for terrestrial political-economic agencies to
fund the emergence of off-planet societies that are on an irresistible
conveyor-belt to independence, whilst voraciously consuming
resources, opening an avenue of escape, and ultimately laying the
void foundations for a competitor civilization of a radically
unprecedented, and thus ominously unpredictable kind.
It follows clearly that the status quo politics of space colonization
are almost fully expressed by space colonization not happening.
When understood in relation to the eclipsed undercurrent of the
frontier analogy — social fission through revolutionary colonialism
or wars of independence — the ‘failure’ of large-scale space
colonization projects to emerge begins to look like something else
entirely: an eminently rational determination on the part of the
world’s most powerful territorial states to inhibit the development
of socio-technological potentials characterized by an ‘American’
763
Reignition
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765
Reignition
Rosetta
Rosetta’s
’s Stone
766
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767
Reignition
entirely ceased. Movement has been its dominant fact, and, unless
this training has no effect upon a people, the American energy will
continually demand a wider field for its exercise. But never again
will such gifts of free land offer themselves. […] For a moment, at
the frontier, the bonds of custom are broken and unrestraint is
triumphant. There is not tabula rrasa asa. The stubborn American
environment is there with its imperious summons to accept its
conditions; the inherited ways of doing things are also there; and
yet, in spite of environment, and in spite of custom, each frontier
did indeed furnish a new field of opportunity, a gate of escape from
the bondage of the past; and freshness, and confidence, and scorn
of older society, impatience of its restraints and its ideas, and
indifference to its lessons, have accompanied the frontier.
Recollected with reference to the prospects of seasteading and
space colonization, and their continuity with a distinctive
Anglophone cultural impetus to resolve political tension through
dissociation in space (with Exit as its key).
Quit
Foseti writes:
There’s a lot of hand-wringing in these parts of the interwebz
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769
Reignition
Exit T
Test
est
What can Exit do? It looks as if France is going to provide an
important demonstration:
France has become a defeatist nation.
A striking indicator of this attitude is the massive emigration that
the country has witnessed over the last decade, with nearly 2 million
French citizens choosing to leave their country and take their
chances in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the United States and
other locales. The last such collective exodus from France came
during the French Revolution, when a large part of the aristocracy
left to await (futilely) the king’s return. Today’s migration isn’t
770
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771
Reignition
772
BLOCK 3 - POLITICAL THEORY
and stimulating.
(4) Exit asymmetries have been by far the most decisive
generators of spontaneous anti-socialist ideology. The iconic
meaning of the Berlin Wall needs no further elucidation. The implicit
irony is that people flee towards Exit, and if this is only possible
virtually, it metamorphoses automatically into delegitimation of the
inhibitory regime. (Socialism is Exit-suppressive by definition.)
(5) Exit is an option, which does not require execution for its
effectiveness. The case for Exit is not an argument for flight, but a
(non-dialectical) defense of the opportunity for flight. Where Exit
most fully flourishes, it is employed the least.
(6) Exit is the alternative to voice. It is defended with extremity
in order to mute voice with comparable extremity. To moderate the
case for Exit is implicitly to make a case for voice. (Those who cannot
exit a deal will predictably demand to haggle over it.)
(7) Exit is the primary Social Darwinian weapon. To blunt it is to
welcome entropy to your hearth.
Age of Exit
Mark Lutter’s forecast for the general landscape of 21st century
politics leaves plenty to argue with, from all sides, and even
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Reignition
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Exit Pressure
It’s impossible to tell anything from this story about the
effectiveness of exercising an Exit Option. It should be expected,
anyway, that the option itself does the work, even if pulling the
trigger has to contribute to the general credibility of virtual exodus.
As an exemplary case, however, it would be hard to beat. From the
statement by Preston Byrne, of eris:
If [the Communications Data Bill] is passed into law, we are likely
to see a mass exodus of tech companies and financial services firms
alike from the United Kingdom. We are happy to lead the charge.
[…] In keeping with our promise in January to leave the country if
775
Reignition
Exit Options
Everyone will notice them when they’ve gone.
All recent policy decisions by the reigning political-economic
structure are intelligible as a mandatory bubble. If you didn’t think
quietly ‘sitting it out’ was already the exercise of an exit option, the
necessary lesson will be increasingly hard to ignore. Refusing to
invest everything into this lunacy is ceasing to be a permissible social
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777
Reignition
June 6, 2015
Exit F
Foundations
oundations
Having lost count of the number of times the demand for exit
guarantees has come up as an objection to the Patchworked-
Neocameral model, it seems worthwhile to reproduce Moldbug’s
most directly on-point, pre-emptive response to the question. The
question being: What is to stop a regime, once it is entirely
unshackled from all domestic political constraint (i.e.
Neocameralized), from extinguishing the exit options of its
residents?
As a prefatory note: Like the Misesian praxeology from which it is
cladistically descended, the Moldbuggian System is a transcendental
political philosophy, which is to say that it deals with ultimate or
unsurpassable conditions. You have reached the transcendental
when there is no higher tribunal, or court of appeal. This is the socio-
cosmic buffers. If you don’t like what you’re seeing here, there’s still
no point looking anywhere else, because this is all you’re going to get:
To live on a Patchwork patch, you have to sign a bilateral contract
with the realm. You promise to be a good boy and behave yourself.
The realm promises to treat you fairly. There is an inherent
asymmetry in this agreement, because you have no enforcement
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779
Reignition
Geopolitical Arbitr
Arbitrage
age
Stross:
… things will get very ugly in London when the Square Mile and
investment banking sector ups and decamps for Frankfurt, leaving
the service sector and multiethnic urban poor behind.
The specifics of this prediction are nutty, if only because mainland
Europe is going down the tubes much faster than the UK, but the
abstract anxiety is spot on. The globalization of the right is entirely
about geopolitical arbitrage (while that of the left is about
homogenizing global governance). All the critical trends point
towards the exacerbation of the ‘problem’. The 21st century is the
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781
Reignition
Flea P
Politics
olitics
One time-tested way to shed parasites is to take a dip:
Foxes will actually take a stick when they have fleas and get into
the water slowly. They let the water raise up to their necks and hold
the stick up in the air. As the water goes higher up their face, the fleas
will climb higher. Eventually the fox will just have it’s nose out of the
water while holding the stick. The fleas will climb up the stick and the
fox will sink under the water and let the flea infested stick float down
the river to the flea’s watery grave.
As Balaji Srinivasan remarked (on Ultimate Exit): “… but the best
part is this: the people who think this is weird, the people who sneer
at the frontier, who hate technology — they won’t follow you out
there.”
Did you really think it was going to be that easy?
Space de-colonization is already preparing to queer-up the
escape trajectory:
As venture capitalist space entrepreneurs and aerospace
contractors compete to profit from space exploration, we’re running
up against increasingly conflicting visions for human futures in outer
space. Narratives of military tactical dominance alongside
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Reignition
Sentences (#55)
Collapse traps people:
You ha
havve to know when to lealeavve.
Most don’t, and won’t, of course.
(Treat this as a promissory note on an installment of provocative
skepticism viz the ‘eventually its necessary to stand and fight, or even
take things back’ proposition that haunts NRx like a chain-rattling
ghost, now more than ever, in the shadow of the impending
Trumpenreich. Zombie-fighting-types can assume that the tacit XS
stance (“flee you fools”) is at least as infuriating as they would expect
it to be.)
Ultimate Exit NY
Some chatter on various web channels about this event, which
should be a great opportunity for exploring. To be clear about my
participation (which has been open to confusion) — it consists of an
intervention out of Cyberspace. (No chance of drinking dates in NY
just yet, unfortunately.)
This is a nonlinear point, from my perspective, since the rapid
development of telepresence is of obvious internal consequence to
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December 6, 2014
785
Reignition
786
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Buy Out
This (via Mangan) is such naked precious metals propaganda — and
yet it’s so right.
… markets are behaving exactly as one would expect at the end
of a major economic era. That is, markets are totally divorced from
the reality of what is going on both economically and geopolitically.
Markets are now in a manic phase, driven by false hope and
momentum. […] It clearly helps that many economic figures are
manipulated and therefore totally inaccurate. If we add to this the
most massive money creation in history, we can be certain that these
are not normal times. […] We are experiencing the beginning of a
hyperinflationary period, with hyperinflation, so far, being noticed
only in financial markets, property markets, and other key assets
such as art and classic cars. […] And currencies will continue their
decline to zero. Continued money printing will guarantee this. And
we have to remember that the major currencies don’t have far to go
since they are down between 97 and 99 percent in the last hundred
years. As currencies start the next major phase of decline we will
experience hyperinflation in all parts of the economy. This
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Go Scotland!
Tribal politics excites the autobiographical impulse, which I’ll pander
to for just a moment (without pretending to any particular
excitement). My immediate ancestry is a quarter Scottish, and —
here’s the thing — those grandparents were Wallaces. Seriously, they
were these guys:
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791
Reignition
792
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793
Reignition
time if it did.
ADDED: What’s the point of independence?
ADDED: As Bremmer explained, Scottish independence would
“tilt the entire U.K. political spectrum to the right.” That would boost
the odds of a conservative majority winning in 2015. […] … “If
Scotland votes ‘yes,’ down the road would come the ultimate irony,”
Bremmer said. “The U.K. would be more likely to pull out of the E.U.,
while Scotland clamors to get in.”
September 8, 2014
Last Da
Days
ys of the UK?
Probably not, but the chance isn’t negligible. There’s a poll tracker
for the final phase here. This historical overview of independence
plebiscites is encouraging.
My favorite article on the topic so far is too odd too easily classify.
Quality hedginess from Sailer, and (ratcheting down a few notches)
David Miles at the Huffington Post.
Reason does the right thing. Steve Forbes makes an even stronger
case for a break, while trying to do the opposite. Here‘s some deeply
retarded propaganda, that happens to be pointing in the right
direction. Round-up coverage from The Scotsman.
As should be expected, various flavors of hostility and
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Reignition
Dependency Culture …
… proves yet again that it’s a reliable vote winner.
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What the f…
Cr
Crack
ack up
“Why oh why don’t those damned crackers just leave?”
If we’re already entering the ejection phase of neo-secessionism,
it has to be a good thing, right?
December 9, 2014
797
Reignition
Pan-Secessionism
Here’s the All Nations Party vision of the American future:
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September 7, 2015
Bre
Brexit
xit
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If the English vote to leave the EU, the Scots will vote to leave
the UK. There will then be no Britain. Meanwhile, the shock of Brexit
to a continent already staggering under many crises could spell the
beginning of the end of the European Union.
ADDED: It’s a trend.
Bre
Brexit
xit Open Thread
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Reignition
Blue
Bluexit
xit
Simply, yes:
Don’t organize. Pack. […] Not literally, of course. Not even the
good people of Canada should have to stomach a mass migration of
moping American liberals mumbling, “Live locally … make art.” What I
mean is that it’s time for blue states and cities to effectively abandon
the American national enterprise, as it is currently constituted. Call it
the New Federalism. Or Virtual Secession. Or Conscious Uncoupling
— though that’s already been used. Or maybe Bluexit.
March 9, 2017
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Identity Hunger
Handle has an excellent post up on this, referencing Nydwracu, who
has made a momentous project out of it. It’s huge, and old, and quite
impossible to summarize persuasively. It’s also impossible to avoid,
especially for the Outer Right.
Steve Sailer told a joke that I’m going to mangle. A monstrous
alien invasion assails the earth, and people have to decide how to
respond. The conservatives say, “What’s there to think about? We
have to get together to defeat this thing.” Liberals respond: “Wait!
They probably have good reasons to hate us. It must be something
we’ve done. Until we work out what that is, we should prostrate
ourselves before their grievances.” Finally the libertarians pipe up:
“Do they believe in free markets?”
An obvious quibble arises with the libertarian punch-line: if
only. Libertarians have predominantly demonstrated an enthusiasm
for alien invasion that is totally detached from any market-oriented
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Reignition
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805
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807
Reignition
INT
INTJJ
Everybody seems to be mad for this stuff, understandably. The
craving to be told what you are will never die, until you do. (That’s
why it’s called me-me-memetics.)
As for the wretched cases who can’t quite claw their way into
the INTJ master-race, there are numerous consolation positions
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Still my favorite:
February 6, 2015
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Reignition
Corrosiv
Corrosivee Individualism?
Everyone’s seen this argument a million times: “So what’s the
problem with libertarianism? The problem is that if you put two
groups one against another, the one who is best able to work
together will overcome the group of individualists.”
An example would be nice. Here are the major modern wars of
necessity (or existential conflicts) the Anglosphere has been involved
in (‘win’ here meaning ‘came out on the winning side’ — conniving to
get others to do most of the dying is an Anglo-tradition in itself):
English Civil War (1642-1651) — Protestant individualists win.
War of the Spanish Succession (17012-1714) — Protestant
individualists win.
Seven Years War (1756-1763) — Protestant individualists win.
American War of Independence (1775-1783) — Protestant
individualists win.
Napoleonic Wars (1803-1815) — Protestant individualists win.
American Civil War (1861-1865) — Protestant individualists win.
First World War (1914-1918) — Anglophone individualists win.
Second World War (1939-1945) — Anglophone individualists win.
Cold War (1947-1989) — Anglophone individualists win.
Have I missed any big ones? I’m simply not seeing the “history is
the graveyard of failed individualist societies” picture that seems to
be consolidating itself as a central alt-right myth.
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November 5, 2015
The Atomization T
Trrap
“Hands up everyone who hates atomization.” That isn’t a call for
surrender (at least overtly), but merely an informal poll.
Now try it differently:
“Hands up everyone who hates atomization, but this time without
looking around.” Was the decision-process – perhaps ironically – a
little slower this time? It’s worth thinking about that. Taking a
shortcut that bypasses the social process might be expected to speed
things up. Yet on the other hand – introducing the delay – comes
the hazy recognition: If you make the call privately, you’re already
complicit. A minor formal re-organization of the question transforms
it insidiously. What do you think of atomization, speaking
atomistically? It becomes a strange, or self-referential loop. Modern
history has been like that.
First, though, a few terminological preliminaries. An ‘atom’ is
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813
Reignition
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815
Reignition
816
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817
Reignition
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June 6, 2017
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Against Univ
Universalism
ersalism
There’s a philosophical objection to any refusal of universalism that
will be familiar from other uses (the denunciation of relativism, most
typically). It requires only one step: Isn’t the denial of the universal
itself a universalist claim? It’s a piece of malignant dialectics because
it demands that we agree. We don’t, and won’t ever, agree.
Agreement is the worst thing that could happen. Merely assent to
its necessity, and global communism, or some close analog, is the
implicit conclusion.
If there is a universal truth, it belongs only to Gnon, and Gnon
is a dark (occulted) God. Traditional theists will be at least strongly
inclined to disagree — and that is excellent. We disagree already, and
we have scarcely begun.
There is no ‘good life for man’ (in general) — or if there is we
know nothing of it, or not enough. Even those persuaded that they
do, on the contrary, know what such a life should be, promote its
universality only at the expense of being denied the opportunity to
pursue it. If we need to agree on the broad contours of such a model
for human existence, then reaching agreement will precede it — and
‘reaching agreement’ is politics. Some much wider world acquires a
veto over the way of life you select, or accept, or inherit (the details
need not detain us). We have seen how that works. Global
communism is the inevitable destination.
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Reignition
Against Univ
Universalism
ersalism II
Preliminary throat-clearing (as in part one): In its most rigorous
construction, ‘universalism’ is robust under conditions of rational
argument (i.e. evidence-based logico-mathematical criticism).
Mathematical theorems, in particular [sic], are universal truths. Any
assertions that can be constructed to a comparable level of formal
rigor (and ultimately mechanization) can lay claim to the same status.
However, with the slightest departure from this — rigidly algorithmic
— criterion, controversy rapidly begins. This is not the place and time
to argue the case for transcendental philosophy (within which
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Reignition
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825
Reignition
If the West could still do imperialism, that would be one thing, but
it can’t (and can’t even stop doing the opposite).
Independence
The philosophical antonym to ‘universality‘ is ‘particularity’. Its
broader, ideological antonym is something closer to independence.
This isn’t a word greatly emphasized by NRx up to this point, or
— for that matter — one figuring prominently in contemporary
discussions of any kind. That’s strange, because it orchestrates an
extraordinary set of conceptual connections.
Independence is a rough synonym for sovereignty, to begin with.
The profound association between these terms bears quite extreme
analytical pressure. The sovereign is that instance capable of
independent decision. An independent state is indistinguishable
from a sovereign one, and to impugn its real sovereignty is to
question its effective independence. Secession is a process of
independence. A (Moldbuggian) Patchwork is a network of
independent geopolitical entities. All relevant trends to geopolitical
fragmentation are independence-oriented. Each executed Exit
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827
Reignition
May 3, 2016
828
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Independence Games
North Korea’s nuclear test on September 3 was registered as a rare
literal geopolitical earthquake. Some public uncertainty persists
about the scale and significance of the tremor. It has been reported
in a range of magnitudes from 6.1 to 6.3 (or even higher), on the
logarithmic Richter Scale. An event of this size suggests an explosion
of several hundred kilotons of TNT, and is consistent with the
detonation of a thermonuclear device. North Korean confirmation
of exactly this occurrence has been received with unprecedented
seriousness.
Nuclear non-proliferation is more idea than reality. Its only
substance is a comparative sluggishness when estimated against the
benchmark of some generally unstated nightmare scenario.
According to such counter-factual consideration, nuclear weapons
might have been more widespread than they are by now. But
exponential processes look like this. They start small, and don’t seem
to be going anywhere dramatic for a while. As the celebrated fable
of exponentiation shows, a modest bowl of rice gets you quite a long
way into the chess board. The supposedly common-sense
assumption that uncontrollable nuclear proliferation isn’t yet
happening requires an argument. (This short essay makes the other
argument.)
The nuclear ‘club’ is too unwieldy to share any kind of seriously
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830
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831
Reignition
832
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833
Reignition
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Reignition
since the Korean War, and are now frankly hostile. The Kim Jong-un
regime has sought to extirpate Chinese influence from its leadership,
with spectacular ruthlessness. Targeting of Chinese urban centers
by the North Korean arsenal is no longer unimaginable, or, in China,
unimagined. After all, the natural target of a deterrent is the greatest
threat to the wielding nation’s sovereignty. It is near-inevitable that
China will occupy this role in the North Korean case. Chinese
impotence in respect to North Korea is what the North Korean
nuclear arsenal is largely – and perhaps even primarily – about.
Tyler Cowen describes Robert Heinlein’s (1966) The Moon is a
Harsh Mistress as “perhaps the best novel for understanding the
logic of a future conflict with North Korea.” He then adds:
“furthermore Catalonians should read it too. Most of all, I recall upon
my reread that this book was my very first exposure to game-
theoretic reasoning.” Not only exotic bombardment (by “electronic
catapult”), independence struggle, and games, but also a world order
reconstructed by the rise of China, and even a “malicious AI” who
acquires strategic agency. Evidently, already half a century ago,
Heinlein is exploring a durable cluster of concerns. At the very core:
There can be no question of achieving or maintaining independence
without the capacity to inflict serious harm upon those who might
seek to prevent it.
Independence, in its geopolitical sense, fuses liberty and security
indissociably. Autonomy – which is exactly sovereignty – requires
836
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837
Reignition
838
BLOCK 3 - POLITICAL THEORY
839
Reignition
840
BLOCK 3 - POLITICAL THEORY
841
Reignition
842
BLOCK 3 - POLITICAL THEORY
change phase.
Toothpaste doesn’t return to the tube just because it makes a
mess. Once it is out, inconvenience has ceased to be any kind of
argument against it. The dangers of a world in which ubiquitous
deterrence capacity reigns are both obvious and immense. This is
nevertheless the world we are entering. The trends driving it, from
both the geopolitical and the techno-economic sides, are by any
realistic estimation irresistible. Cheaper and more diverse
nightmare weaponry is becoming available within an increasingly
disintegrated international order. A variety of self-reinforcing
dynamics – including but not restricted to those of the arms-race
type – are further stimulating the process. Cascading acceleration is
all but inevitable.
When conceived with maximal cynicism (i.e. realism), geostrategic
independence is a direct function of deterrence capability. Don’t
tread on me is the colloquial statement, whose perfect applicability
is commonly under-estimated. The rattlesnake, combining fearsome
weaponry with signaling, makes for a natural totem of deterrence.
Neither venom, nor rattle, is dispensable. “Diplomacy without arms
is like music without instruments,” runs the famous analogy,
attributed to Frederick the Great. Game theory recognizes military
capability as a communication medium.
It is not only that robust independence depends upon deterrence.
Reciprocally, geostrategic liberty necessarily tends to the production
843
Reignition
844
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by it.
What does explosive proliferation mean? Potentially, many
things. For instance, vectors of technological – and thus economic –
development are certain to be, to some significant degree, oriented
by it. As artificial intelligence is factored into policy decision-making
not only as an essential contributor to command, control,
communications and intelligence (C3I), but as an intrinsic weapon of
mass destruction, its prominence will be still further elevated.
WMD proliferation implies a multiplication of real geopolitical
agencies. It is rigorously indistinguishable – in both directions – from
a disintegrated world. Established relations of dependency are
broken, releasing unanticipated – and evidently hazardous –
freedoms. Whether or not this is the world we want, it looks
increasingly inevitable that it is the world we are to have.
845