Capability of AI

This article provides a short introduction on AI, how it has evolved until today and how it will change
the
nature of warfare. Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become a reality in today's world which is considered as
the fourth industrial revolution especially in the military. The significance of AI has been put to the fore
by world top leaders including Obama, Trump, Xi, and Putin, Putin who stated on September 2017:
whoever becomes the leader in AI, will rule the world.
In fact the world military power is compelled by the need for change as it is on the continuous pursuit of
better, faster and stronger weapons or technologies, and this is exactly what AI provides. In the field of
military, [ CITATION alP \l 1033 ]Stated by Peter Svenmarck, in recent years AI has been taken as all
domains i.e. land, sea, air, space and information and all levels of warfare i.e. political strategic,
operational and tactical. Currently, the use of AI in the military is seen on mainly in terms of the
following:
a) Autonomous Weapons and Weapons Targeting
b) Surveillance
c) Cyber security
d) Internal Security
e) Logistics
f) Autonomous Vehicles
Some experts consider it as a positive development as it would replace human on war and reduce human
casualties, AI reaches where human cannot reach and bring out with best results including the high risk
ones. After recognizing the aptitudes of AI, more than 20 countries have announced their national AI
strategies, and more states and non-states organization are taking pivotal steps in AI research and
development (R&D). Yet United States and China are leading actors in the field where the US aiming to
remain the hegemon in the battlefield, while China is aiming to leapfrog the US and become the leader in
AI by 2030.
Since 1956 AI has been developing, but it came into reality late after 2010 due to three enabling
developments, the availability of "big data" sources, improvements to machine learning approaches, and
increases in computer processing power. Generally there are two types of AI, Narrow AI (NAI)and the
General AI (GAI), while NAI refers to functions like playing games or image recognitions, GAI is used to
denote systems capable of human level intelligence which are sufficient to conduct a series of different
tasks. An important issue related to AI, regardless of whether it is narrow or general, is that of the
autonomy.
Human and Machine Relationship

Currently, there are three types of relationships that we can debate about: human in the loop, human on
the loop, and human out of the loop. When you say the human is in the loop it means that the machine is
in the control of the environment; however, it is the human that takes the final decision. This is called as a
semi- autonomous system. When that of the human on the loop, the machine can act and decide on its
own and human observes and acts and intervene if necessary. In the last case here, while the machine acts
and decides by itself, the human does not have any control on the machine, and as a result remains out of
the loop.
AI military applications
Currently, in the military application we can observe the first two machine-human relations case, i.e.
drones and precision guided missiles, while the development has not yet reached the third level of full
autonomy. [ CITATION Ken18 \l 1033 ]It is widely accepted now, that in the future, AI has the capacity to
transform military activities such as logistics, intelligence, surveillance and especially weapons design.
There are verities of uncertainties that encircle AI and its use which has raised a lot of debates among
military strategists which are related to the impact of AI on the way in which warfare is conducted and
how much autonomy should be given to the weapons that are going to use AI. Particularly with regard to
the lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) or "Killer robots" as they are dubbed. These systems
fall within the third case mentioned earlier, where the human is out of the loop.
In terms of military application, AI can be used but not limited to be as follows[ CITATION Fry18 \l 1033 ]:
(i) based on the image-recognition algorithms, AI can be used to assist in processing and interpreting
information. For example, the American Project Maven that is being programmed to process and interpret
the information received from the videos captured by drones. (ii) By using AI, drones, planes, ships,
thanks, etc. will not need a human to control or direct their actions. For example, Israeli Harpy drone that
has passed to a close to full autonomy (still needs to be launched by ground troops), Air force Global
Hawk and Army Gray Eagle drones. For all it is necessary that the operator directs the aircrafts where to
go and then the aircraft flies itself. (iii) Lastly, as algorithms develop further, AI used for command and
control, including battle management, by analyzing large sets of data and making forecasts to direct
human action.
Impact of AI on the character of the warfare

Scholars that approach the application of AI skeptically, [ CITATION Sch16 \l 1033 ] as they bring to the
fore the fact that humans can lose control over the machines which would wreak havoc stand on one
hand. [ CITATION Tho \l 1033 ] Furthermore, the possibility that not only states, but also the non-states
actors frankly speaking the terrorist organizations, will be able to use the AI systems further deepening
the irregularity of warfare. On the other hand, AI are being observed as a positive development as they
would replace the human soldiers in dangerous combat and as a result the human loses will be less.
Moreover, these kinds of development in machines may prove more beneficial in long duration combat
operations where soldiers cannot endure. However, despite the advantages and disadvantages debate on
AI warfare applications, there are various predictions regarding the impact scale of AI on the future of the
character of warfare. In this respect, there are three possible positions: (i) minimal impact, (ii)
evolutionary impact, and (iii) revolutionary impact [ CITATION Say \l 1033 ]. Minimal impact are mainly
concerned with the technical aspect of AI and the military organizations' willingness to use this
technology. Evolutionary Impact accepts the fact that AI will play a crucial role in warfare even though
GAI is unlikely to develop in the near future yet they call for the importance of the human presence as
this would keep AI from taking control over the warfare[ CITATION Wor15 \l 1033 ]. Revolutionary
Impact on warfare contend that AI's application in the military has the capability to change the nature and
principles of warfare.
Why Countries invest in Artificial Intelligence?

According to the European Commission, in 2016 there were investments in AI of approximately 10
billion euro in Asia and 18 billion in the US. In military robotics alone the global spending in 2018 is
expected to be 7.5 billion dollar per year [ CITATION Sch \l 1033 ]. The advent of AI and its use would
create great opportunities for the states that use it at first, i.e. US and China, which will particularly help
these two states to gain bot economic and military advantages over their competitors. Furthermore, it can
be expected that it will redefine the current balances of power. Recently, Turkey is among the states that
have not taken considerable steps in the area of AI R&D. Yet, considering the recent regional dynamics
and the fact that states like UAE and Israel have started to focus on AI, it is important that Turkey creates
its own AI national strategy and allocates considerable funding to this area. The prime reason behind the
significance of AI to shift the recent balances of power relies on the fact the application of AI in the
military will give the states the upper hand in the battlefield, as the machines will be more accurate and
faster than humans in logistics, battlefield and decision making. Furthermore, with the help of AI, the
military can perform high risk missions for a long period of time, something that cannot be done by
humans.
Conclusion
The capability of AI to alter the landscape of security and change the recent balance of power is apparent
and accepted by both states/bureaucrats and academicians. For this cause, the rise in the growth of AI,
and its application in the military, has been accompanied by a competition between states, most
remarkably the U.S. and China. Many other states/organizations at the same time are trying not to lag
behind and advance their own AI applications.
References
al, P. S. (n.d.). Possibilities and challenges for Artificial Intelligence in Military Applications. Retrieved
from http://www.sto.nato.int/publications/ .../STO-MP-IST-160/MP-IST-160-S1-5.pdf.
Brimley, W. a. (2015). 20YY Preparing for War in the Robotic Age, .
Fryer-Biggs, Z. (2018, December 21). Retrieved from Wired: https://www.wired.com/story/inside-the-

pentagons-plan-to-win-over-silicon-valleys-ai-experts/.
Hammes, T. X. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.hoover.org/research/technology-converges-non-

state-actors-benefit.
Payne, K. (2018). Atificial Intelligence: ARevolution in Strategic Affairs? Survival: Global Politics and
Strategy 60.
Sayler. (n.d.). Artificial Intelligence and National Security.
Scharre. (n.d.). Army of None, Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War.
Scharre, P. (2016). Centre for New American Security. Retrieved from

https://s3.amazonaws.com/files.cnas..org/documents/CNAS_Autonomous-weapons-
operationsl-risk.pdf?mtime=20160906080515.

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This article provides a short introduction on AI, how it has evolved until today and how it will change

Human and Machine Relationship

Impact of AI on the character of the warfare

Why Countries invest in Artificial Intelligence?

Brimley, W. a. (2015). 20YY Preparing for War in the Robotic Age, .

Fryer-Biggs, Z. (2018, December 21). Retrieved from Wired: https://www.wired.com/story/inside-the-

Hammes, T. X. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.hoover.org/research/technology-converges-non-

Sayler. (n.d.). Artificial Intelligence and National Security.

Scharre, P. (2016). Centre for New American Security. Retrieved from

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