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    ChE 510 Lec 6

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    Gian Banares
    This document discusses project scheduling when activity durations are uncertain. It introduces the PERT three-estimate approach which uses optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates to model activity durations as random variables. It describes calculating the mean and variance of activity durations and making simplifying approximations that the critical path will be the longest, activity durations are independent, and project duration follows a normal distribution to facilitate PERT analysis.

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    ChE 510 Lec 6

    Uploaded by

    Gian Banares
    27 views5 pages
    This document discusses project scheduling when activity durations are uncertain. It introduces the PERT three-estimate approach which uses optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates to model activity durations as random variables. It describes calculating the mean and variance of activity durations and making simplifying approximations that the critical path will be the longest, activity durations are independent, and project duration follows a normal distribution to facilitate PERT analysis.

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    This document discusses project scheduling when activity durations are uncertain. It introduces the PERT three-estimate approach which uses optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates to model activity durations as random variables. It describes calculating the mean and variance of activity durations and making simplifying approximations that the critical path will be the longest, activity durations are independent, and project duration follows a normal distribution to facilitate PERT analysis.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    27 views5 pages

    ChE 510 Lec 6

    Uploaded by

    Gian Banares
    This document discusses project scheduling when activity durations are uncertain. It introduces the PERT three-estimate approach which uses optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates to model activity durations as random variables. It describes calculating the mean and variance of activity durations and making simplifying approximations that the critical path will be the longest, activity durations are independent, and project duration follows a normal distribution to facilitate PERT analysis.

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    8/4/12

    Project Scheduling:
    Dealing with Uncertain Durations
    Lecture 6

    •  To know the concept of project management


    •  To know the concept of PERT/CPM
    •  To be able to construct a PERT/CPM Diagram
    through a problem application

    Objective

    •  there is considerable uncertainty about how much


    time actually will be needed for each activity

    •  In reality, the duration of each activity is a


    random variable having some probability
    distribution.

    Uncertain Activity
    Durations

    1  
    8/4/12  

    •  Most likely estimate (m) = estimate of the most


    likely value of the duration,
    •  Optimistic estimate (o) = estimate of the
    duration under the most favorable conditions,
    •  Pessimistic estimate (p) = estimate of the
    duration under the most unfavorable conditions.

    PERT Three-Estimate
    Approach

    •  Project Calendars

    •  Description of the Project Scope

    •  Project Risks

    •  List of Activities

    •  List of Resources

    PERT Three-Estimate
    Approach

    Variance

    Mean

    Mean and the Variance

    2  
    8/4/12  

    •  durations fluctuate around their means

    •  inevitable that the duration of some activities


    will be larger than the mean, perhaps even nearly
    as large as the pessimistic estimate, which could
    greatly delay the project

    Mean and the Variance

    •  1. What is the mean (denoted by µp) of this distribution?


    •  2. What is the variance (denoted by σ2p) of this
    distribution?
    •  3. What is the form of this distribution?

    Three Simplifying
    Approximations

    •  Simplifying Approximation 1: Assume that the


    mean critical path will turn out to be the longest
    path through the project network.
    •  Calculate the µp

    Three Simplifying
    Approximations

    3  
    8/4/12  

    •  Simplifying Approximation 2: Assume that


    the durations of the activities on the mean
    critical path are statistically independent.
    This assumption should hold if the activities
    are performed truly independently of each
    other.
    •  Calculate the σ2p

    Three Simplifying
    Approximations

    •  Calculation of µp and σ2p

    •  µp sum of the means of the durations for the


    activities on the mean critical path

    •  σ2p sum of the variances of the durations for the
    activities on the mean critical path

    Three Simplifying
    Approximations

    •  Simplifying Approximation 3: Assume that the


    form of the probability distribution of project
    duration is a normal distribution

    Three Simplifying
    Approximations

    4  
    8/4/12  

    Three Simplifying
    Approximations

    5  

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