DHS Afghanistan

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UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

27 AUGUST 2021 IA-53744-21

TERRORISM

(U//FOUO) Violent Extremists Seeking to Exploit US Withdrawal from


Afghanistan

(U//FOUO) We assess domestic and foreign violent extremists probably are attempting
to exploit the US withdrawal from and deteriorating security situation in
Afghanistan to inspire attacks and recruit like-minded extremists online. Taliban
control of Afghanistan provides al-Qa‘ida and other associated terrorists opportunities
to bolster their global appeal by touting its longstanding alliance with the group and
commitment to driving foreign troops from Afghanistan. In recent weeks, violent
extremist messaging has praised the Taliban for its decades-long fight against perceived
US oppression and has called for adopting Taliban-type tactics in the Homeland.
• (U//FOUO) Al-Qa‘ida’s online supporters have framed the US withdrawal in
Afghanistan as a strategic victory, which may contribute to an increase in support
for the group among US-based violent extremists. Foreign-inspired violent
extremists historically have rallied around terrorist control of territory and
battlefield successes, most notably when the Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham
(ISIS) took control of Mosul, Iraq in 2014.
• (U//FOUO) Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) over the last week has praised the
Taliban’s territorial gains and renewed its allegiance to the group following the
Taliban’s release of TTP prisoners previously held by Afghan National Security
Forces. TTP gained international notoriety in May 2010 when it claimed
responsibility for the failed explosives attack in Times Square, New York.
• (U//FOUO) Domestic violent extremists espousing anti-government narratives
encouraged followers to copy the Taliban’s long-term operational strategy, which
was characterized as a driving force behind the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Some racially or ethnically motivated violent extremist-white supremacists
(RMVE-WSs) also have touted the Taliban’s success, claiming that the takeover
serves as inspiration for fighting for their race. Such narratives could drive
attacks against Muslims, foreigners, or individuals who these actors believe to be
refugees to discourage future resettlement in the United States, based on an I&A
review of previous RMVE-WS plotting.

(U) Prepared by the Counterterrorism Mission Center. Coordinated within the DHS Intelligence Enterprise (CBP, CWMD, ICE, TSA, USCG, USSS) and with DIA
and NCTC. For questions, contact DHS-SPS-RFI@hq.dhs.gov.

UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY


UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

These incidents underscore the difficulties associated with anticipating


ideologically inspired violence in the United States. a

a(U//FOUO) Potential indicators of mobilization to violence can be found in the


unclassified booklet, “Homegrown Violent Extremist Mobilization Indicators,” which is
available on NCTC’s website
(https://www.dni.gov/files/NCTC/documents/news_documents/NCTC-
Unclassified-HVE-Mobilization-Indicators-Web.pdf).

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