ii) Trial and Events: To conduct an experiment once is termed as trial, while Probability and

possible outcomes or combination of outcomes is termed as events. For Probability Rules

example, toss of a coin is a trial, and the occurence of either head or a tail
is an event.

iii) Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is called
the sample space for that experiment. For example, in a single throw of a
dice, the sample space is (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).

iv) Collectively Exhaustive Events: It is the set of all possible events that can
result from an experiment. It is obvious that the sum total of probability
value of each of these events will always be one. For example, in a single
toss of a fair coin, the collectively exhaustive events are either head or tail.
Since

P(H) = 0.5 and P(T) = 0.5

 P(H) + P(T) = 0.5 + 0.5 = 1.0

v) Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events are said to be mutually

exclusive events if the occurence of one event implies no possibility of
occurence of the other event. For example, in throwing an unbiased dice,
the occurence of the number at the top prevents the occurence of other
numbers on it.

vi) Equally Likely Events: When all the possible outcomes of an

experiment have an equal probability of occurance, such events are called
equally likely events. For example, in case of throwing of a fair coin, we
have already seen that
P(Head) = P (Tail) = 0.5

Many common experiments in real life also can have events, which have all of
the above properties. The best example is that of a single toss of a coin, where
both the possible outcomes or events of either head or tail coming on top are
collectively exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely events.

13.4 FUNDAMENTAL CONCEPTS

AND APPROACHES TO
PROBABILITY
Let us, now, discuss the concepts and approaches to determine and interpret
probability. There are two fundamental concepts of probability. They are:

(i) The value of probability of any event lies between 0 to 1. This

may be expressed as follows:
0  P (Event)  1
If the value of probability of an event is equal to zero, then the event is
never expected to occur and if the probability value is equal to one, the
event is always expected to occur.
(ii) The sum of the simple probabilities for all possible outcomes of an activity
must be equal to one.
Before proceeding further, first of all, let us discuss different approaches to
defining probability concept.

Approaches to Probability
There are three approaches to determine probability. These are :
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Probability and Hypothesis
Testing
a) Classical Approach: The classical approach to defining probability is based
on the premise that all possible outcomes or elementary events of experiment
are mutually exclusive and equally likely. The term equally likely means that
each of all the possible outcomes has an equal chance of occurance. Hence,
as per this approach, the probability of occuring of any event ‘E’ is given as:

P(E) 
No. of outcomes where the event occurs [n(E)]
Total no. of all possible outcomes (n(S)]

This approach is also known as ‘A Priori’ probability as when we are

performing the event using a fair coin, standard card, unbiased dice, then we
can tell in advance the probability of happening of some event. We need not
perform the actual experiment to find the required probability.

Example: When we toss a fair coin, the probability of getting a head would
be:

Total number of favourable outcomes 1 1

P(Head)  Total no. of all possible outcomes  11 2

3
Similarly, when a dice is thrown, the probability of getting an odd number is
6
1
or .
2

The premise that all outcomes are equally likely assumes that the outcomes
are symmetrical. Symmetrical outcomes are possible when a coin or a die
being tossed are fair. This requirement restricts the application of probability
only to such experiments which give rise to symmetrical outcomes. The
classical approach, therefore, provides no answer to problems involving
asymmetrical outcomes. And we do come across such situations more often
in real life.

Thus, the classical approach to probability suffers from the following limitations:
i) The approach cannot be useful in such a case, when it is not possible in
the events to be considered “equally likely”. ii) It fails to deal with questions
like, what is the probability that a bulb will burn out within 2,000 hours?
What is the probability that a female will die before the age of 50 years?
etc.

b) Relative Frequency of Occurrence: The classical approach offers no

answer to probability in situations where outcomes of an experiment lack of
syummetry. Experiments of throwing a die which is loaded, or of tossing a
coin which is biased, fall beyond the purview of classial approach since these
experiments do not generate equally likely or symmetrical outcomes. In such
cases the probability remains undefined. Failure of the classical approach on
this count has made way for the relative frequency approach. It was in
early 1800s, when several British statisticians started defining probability from
statistical data collected on births and deaths. This concept was then widely
used for calculating risk of loss of life as well as commercial insurance.
According to this approach, the probability is the observed relative frequency
of an event in a very large number of trials, when the conditions are
stable.This method is utilised by taking relative frequencies of past
occurrences as their probabilities.
 Example: Supose an insurance company knows from available actuarial data,
that for all males 50 years old, 30 out of 10,000 die within a one-year period.
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From this available data the company can estimate the probability of death Probability and
for that age group as ‘P’ where, Probability Rules

30
P  10,000  0.003

Similarly, if the availability of fair complexioned girls is 1 in 20, then the

probability for that group is : P 1

  0.05 .
20

This approach too has limited practical utility because the computation of
probability requires repetition of an experiment a large number of times. This
is practically true where an event occurs only once so that repetitive
occurrences under precisely the same conditions is neither possible nor
desirable.

c) Subjective Probability: The subjective approach to define probability was

introduced by Frank Ramehs in 1926 in his book “The Foundation of
Mathematics and Other Logical Essays”. The subjective approach makes
up for determining the probability of events where experiments cannot be
performed repeatedly under the same conditions. According to this approach
probability is based on the experience and the judgement of the person
making this estimate. This may differ from person to person, depending on
one’s perception of the situation and the past experience. Subjective
probability can be defined as based on the available evidence. Sometimes
logic and past data are not so useful in determining the probability value, in
those cases the subjective approach of the assesser is being used to find that
probability. This approach is so flexible that it may be applied in a number
of situations where the earlier two approaches fail to offer a satisfactory
answer.

Example: Suppose a commitee of experts constituted by the Government of

India is faced with the decision, whether to allow construction of a nuclear
power plant on a site which is close to a densely populated area. They will
have to assign subjective probability to answer the question. “What is the
probability of a nuclear accident at the site?” Obviously, neither of the
previously discussed approaches can be applied in this case.

Impartantly, these three approaches compliment one another because where one
fails, the other takes over. However, all are identical in as much as probability
is defined as a ratio or a weight assigned to the likelylihood of occurrence of
an event.

Self Assessment Exercise A

1) What does it mean when:

i) the probability of an event is zero.

ii) the probability of an event is one.
iii) all the possible outcomes of an experiment have an equal
chance of occurance.
iv) the two events not occurring simultaneously, have some elements
common to both.
2) You are being asked to draw one card from a deck of 52 cards. In these 52
cards, 4 categories exist namely: spade, club, diamond, and heart (i.e. 13
each). So you can test your understanding of the concept by going through
the
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