CHAPTER FOUR

PROBABILITY THEORY AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

4.1 PROBABILITY THEORY

We use the concept of probability to deal with uncertainty. Intuitively, the probability of an
event is a number that measures the chance, or likelihood, that the event will occur. For instance,
the probability that your favorite football team will win its next game measures the likelihood of
a victory. The probability of an event is always a number between 0 and 1. The closer an event’s
probability is to 1, the higher is the likelihood that the event will occur; the closer the event’s
probability is to 0, the smaller is the likelihood that the event will occur. For example, if you
believe that the probability that your favorite football team will win its next game is 0.95, then
you are almost sure that your team will win. However, if you believe that the probability of
victory is only 0.10, then you have very little confidence that your team will win.
SOME BASIC CONCEPTS
Probability, in common parlance, refers to the chance of occurrence of an event or happening.
In order that we are able to compute it, a proper understanding of certain basic concepts in
probability theory is required. These concepts are an Experiment, a Sample space, and an Event.
EXPERIMENT
A random experiment is a mechanism that produces a definite outcome that cannot be predicted
with certainty. An outcome of an experiment is some observation or measurement. Any action,
whether it is the drawing a card out of a deck of 52 cards, or reading the temperature, or
measurement of a product's dimension to ascertain quality, or the launching of a new product in
the market, constitute an experiment in the probability theory terminology.
The experiments in probability theory have three things in common:
 there are one or more outcomes of each experiment
 it is possible to specify the outcomes in advance
 there is uncertainty about the outcomes
A single outcome of an experiment is called a basic outcome or an elementary event. Any
particular card drawn from a deck is a basic outcome.
SAMPLE SPACE
The Sample space is the universal set S pertinent to a given experiment. It is the set of all
possible outcomes of an experiment. So each outcome is visualized as a sample point in the
sample space. The sample spaces for the following experiments are:

Experiment Sample Space

Drawing a Card {all 52 cards in the deck}
Reading the Temperature {all numbers in the range of temperatures}
Measurement of a Product's Dimension {undersize, outsize, right size}
Launching of a New Product {success, failure}

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EVENT
An event, in probability theory, constitutes one or more possible outcomes of an experiment. An
Event is a subset of a sample space. It is a set of basic outcomes. We say that the event occurs if
the experiment gives rise to a basic outcome belonging to the event. For the experiment of
drawing a card, we may obtain different events.

APPROACHES TO PROBABILITY THEORY

We often wish to assign probabilities to sample space outcomes. This is usually done by using
one of three methods: the classical method, the relative frequency method, or the subjective
method. Regardless of the method used, probabilities must be assigned to the experimental
outcomes so that two conditions are met:
1. The probability assigned to each sample space outcome must be between 0 and 1. That is,
if E represents a sample space outcome and if P(E) represents the probability of this
outcome, then 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1.
2. The probabilities of all of the sample space outcomes must sum to 1.

THE CLASSICAL APPROACH

The classical method of assigning probabilities can be used when the sample space outcomes
are equally likely. For example, consider the experiment of tossing a fair coin. Here, there are
two equally likely sample space outcomes—head (H) and tail (T). Therefore, logic suggests that
the probability of observing a head, denoted P(H), is 1/2 = 0.5, and that the probability of
observing a tail, denoted P(T), is also 1/2 = 0.5. Notice that each probability is between 0 and 1.
Furthermore, because H and T are all of the sample space outcomes, P(H) + P(T) = 1. In
general, if there are N equally likely sample space outcomes, the probability assigned to each
sample space outcome is 1/N. To illustrate this, consider the experiment of rolling a fair die. It
would seem reasonable to think that the six sample space outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 are
equally likely, and thus each outcome is assigned a probability of 1/6. If P(1) denotes the
probability that one dot appears on the upward face of the die, then P(1) = 1/6. Similarly, P(2) =
1/6, P(3) = 1/6, P(4) = 1/6, P(5) = 1/6, and P(6) = 1/6.
In the Classical Approach, probability of an event is defined as the relative size of the event with
respect to the size of the sample space. The rule we use in computing probabilities, assuming
equal likelihood of all basic outcomes, is as follows:
Probability of the event A:
n( A)
P (A) =
N (S )
Where, n (A) = the number of outcomes favorable to the event A
N (S) = total number of outcomes
Example: 1
A fair coin is tossed twice. Find the probabilities of the following events:
a) A, getting two heads
b) B, getting one head and one tail
c) C, getting at least one head or one tail
d) D, getting four heads

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THE RELATIVE FREQUENCY APPROACH
The Relative Frequency Approach is used to compute probability in which there is only a past
data. In the absence of past data, we have to undertake an experiment. As per this approach, the
probability of occurrence of an event is given by the observed relative frequency of an event in a
very large number of trials. In other words, the probability of occurrence of an event is the ratio
of the number of times the event occurs to the total number of trials. For example, to estimate the
probability that a randomly selected consumer prefers Coca-Cola to all other soft drinks, we
perform an experiment in which we ask a randomly selected consumer for his or her preference.
There are two possible experimental outcomes: “prefers Coca- Cola” and “does not prefer Coca-
Cola.” However, we have no reason to believe that these experimental outcomes are equally
likely, so we cannot use the classical method. We might perform the experiment, say, 1,000
times by surveying 1,000 randomly selected consumers. Then, if 140 of those surveyed said that
they prefer Coca-Cola, we would estimate the probability that a randomly selected consumer
prefers Coca-Cola to all other soft drinks to be 140/1,000 = 0.14. This is an example of the
relative frequency method of assigning probability. The probability of the event B:

n
P (B) =
N
Where, n = the number of times the event occurs
N = total number of trials
Example: 2
A newspaper boy wants to find out the chances that on any day he will be able to sell more than
90 copies of The Times of Ethiopia. From his dairy where he recorded the daily sales of the last
year, he finds out that out of 365 days, on 75 days he had sold 80 copies, on 144 days he had sold
85 copies, on 62 days he had sold 95 copies and on 84 days he had sold 100 copies of The Times
of Ethiopia. Find out the required probability for the newspaper boy.

THE SUBJECTIVE APPROACH

In this approach, we try to assess the probability from our own experiences. We may bring in any
information to assess this. Therefore the Subjective Approach involves personal judgment,
information, intuition, and other subjective evaluation criteria. The area of subjective probability
- which is relatively new, having been first developed in the 1930s – is somewhat controversial.
One person's subjective probability may very well be different from another person's subjective
probability of the same event. We may note here that since the assessment is a purely subjective
one, it will vary from person to person and, therefore, subjective probability is also called
Personal Probability.
Example: 3
In a certain situation, one might express the confidence that there are 70:30 chances of a
salesman achieving his sales quote.

Some Elementary Probability Rules

We can often calculate probabilities by using formulas called probability rules. We will begin
by presenting the simplest probability rule: the rule of complements. To start, we define the
complement of an event:

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The Rule of Complements defines the probability of the complement of an event in terms of the
probability of the original event. Consider event A defined over the sample space S. The
complement of an event A in a sample space S, denoted by Ac , is the collection of all outcomes
in S that are not elements of the set A. (see Figure 1)

P (Ac) = 1 - P (A)

Figure 1 Complement of an event

As a simple example, if the probability of rain tomorrow is 0.3, then the probability of no rain
tomorrow must be 1 - 0.3 = 0.7. If the probability of drawing a king is 4/52, then the probability
of the drawn card's not being a king is 1 - 4/52 = 48/52.

THE UNION RULE

A very important rule in probability theory, the Rule of Unions (also called Addition Theorem)
allows us to write the probability of the union of two events in terms of the probabilities of the
two events and the probability of their intersection.
Consider two events A and B defined over the sample space S, as shown in the following Figure

Figure 2 Two Overlapping Events A and B

Thus, the rule of unions is:

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)
The probability of the intersection of two events P (A ∩ B) is called their joint probability.

Example: 4
A card is drawn from a well-shuffled pack of playing cards. Find the probability that the card
drawn is either a club or a king.

Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if they have no sample space outcomes in common.
In this case, the events A and B cannot occur simultaneously, and thus P(A ∩ B) = 0

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Figure 3 Two Mutually Exclusive Events A and B

This fact gives us a special rule for unions of mutually exclusive events. Since the probability of
the intersection of the two events is zero, there is no need to subtract P (A∩B) when the
probability of the union of the two events is computed. Therefore,
For mutually exclusive events A and B:
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B)
This is not really a new rule since we can always use the rule of unions for the union of two
events: If the events happen to be mutually exclusive, we subtract zero as the probability of the
intersection.
Example: 5
A card is drawn from a well-shuffled pack of playing cards. Find the probability that the card
drawn is either a king or a queen.
We can extend the Rule of Unions to three (or more) events. Let A, B, and C be the three events
defined over the sample space S, as shown in Figure 4
Then, the Rule of Unions is
P (A∪B∪C) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C) − P (A∩B) − P (B∩C) − P (A∩C) + P (A∩B ∩C)

Figure 4 Three Overlapping Events A, B and C

When the three events are mutually exclusive (see Figure 5), the Rule of Unions is
P (A∪B∪C) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C)

Figure 5 Three Mutually Exclusive Events A, B and C

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Example: 6
A card is drawn from a well-shuffled pack of playing cards. Find the probability that the card
drawn is
a) either a heart or an honour or king
b) either an ace or a king or a queen.

THE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY RULE

As a measure of uncertainty, probability depends on information. We often face situations where
the probability of an event A is influenced by the information that another event B has occurred.
Thus, the probability we would give the event "XYZ Company’s stock price will go up
tomorrow" depends on what we know about the company and its performance; the probability is
conditional upon our information set. In this example, event A may be the event that the stock
will go up tomorrow, and event B may be a favorable quarterly report.
Consider two events A and B defined over the sample space S, as shown below in Figure 6

Figure 6 Conditional Probability of Event A

Conditional Probability
1. The conditional probability of the event A given that the event B has occurred is written
P(A |B) and is defined to be
P (A ∩ B)
P (A / B) =
P(B)
Here we assume that P(B) is greater than 0.
2. The conditional probability of the event B given that the event A has occurred is written
P(B | A) and is defined to be
P (A ∩B)
P (B / A) =
P( A)
Here we assume that P(A) is greater than 0.

The vertical line in P (A / B) is read given, or conditional upon.

Example: 7
For an experiment of throwing a die twice, find the probability:
a) of the event of getting a total of 9, given that the die has shown up points between 4 and 6
(both inclusive)
b) of the event of getting points between 4 and 6 (both inclusive), given that a total of 9 has
already been obtained

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THE PRODUCT RULE
The Product Rule (also called Multiplication Theorem) allows us to write the probability of the
simultaneous occurrence of two (or more) events.
In the conditional probability rules

P (A ∩B) P (B ∩ A)
P (A / B) = and P (B / A) =
P( B) P( A)

A ∩ B or B ∩ A is the event A and B occur simultaneously. So rearranging the conditional

probability rules, we have our Product Rule

P (A ∩ B) = P (A / B). P (B) and P (A ∩ B) = P (B / A). P ( A)

Example: 8
A box contains 10 balls out of which 2 are green, 5 are red and 3 are black. If two balls are
drawn at random, one after the other without replacement, from the box. Find the probabilities
that:
(a) both the balls are of green color
(b) both the balls are of black color
(c) both the balls are of red color
(d) the first ball is red and the second one is black
(e) the first ball is green and the second one is red

Independent Events
Two events are said to be independent of each other if the occurrence or non-occurrence of one
event in any trial does not affect the occurrence of the other event in any trial. Events A and B
are independent of each other if and only if the following three conditions hold:
When A and B are independent (and only when they are independent), we can obtain the
probability of the joint occurrence of A and B (i.e. the probability of their intersection) simply by
multiplying the two separate probabilities. This rule is thus called the Product Rule for
Independent Events.

Conditions for the independence of two events A and B:

P ( A / B ) = P ( A)
P (B / A) = P (B )
and P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( A). P (B )
Here we assume that P(A) and P(B) are greater than 0.
The first two equations have a clear, intuitive appeal. The top equation says that when A and B
are independent of each other, then the probability of A stays the same even when we know that
B has occurred - it is a simple way of saying that knowledge of B tells us nothing about A when
the two events are independent. Similarly, when A and B are independent, then knowledge that
A has occurred gives us absolutely no information about B and its likelihood of occurring.
The third equation, however, is the most useful in applications. It tells us that when A and B are
independent (and only when they are independent), we can obtain the probability of the joint
occurrence of A and B (i.e. the probability of their intersection) simply by multiplying the two
separate probabilities. This rule is thus called the Product Rule for Independent Events.

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A Counting Rule for Multiple-Step Experiments
If an experiment can be described as a sequence of k steps in which there are n1 possible
outcomes on the first step, n2 possible outcomes on the second step, and so on, then the total
number of experimental outcomes is given by (n1)(n2) . . . (nk).
Example 9: Now suppose the student takes a class quiz consisting of three true–false questions.
Then, there are (n1)(n2)(n3) = (2)(2)(2) = 8 experimental outcomes. If the student is totally
unprepared for the quiz and has to blindly guess the answer to each question, the 8 experimental
outcomes might be considered to be equally likely. Therefore, since only one of these outcomes
corresponds to all three questions being answered correctly, the probability that the student will
answer all three questions correctly is 1/8.

A Counting Rule for Combinations

The number of combinations of n items that can be selected from N items is
n!
nCr =
r ! (n−r )!
where, n! = n(n-1) (n-2).....1
r! = r(r-1) (r-2)........1
Example : 10
Among 15 clocks there are two defectives. In how many ways can an inspector chose three of the
clocks for inspection so that:
a) There is no restriction.
b) None of the defective clock is included.
c) Only one of the defective clocks is included.
d) Two of the defective clock is included.
Solutions:
n=15 of which 2 are defective and 13 are non −defective.
r=3
a) If there is no restriction select three clocks from 15 clocks and this can be done in :
n=15 , r=3

()
n n!
r
= =
15 !
( n−r )!* r ! 12 !* 3 !
=455 ways

b) None of the defective clocks is included.

This is equivalent to zero defective and three non defective, which can be done in:

(20 )∗(133 )=286 ways .

c) Only one of the defective clocks is included.
This is equivalent to one defective and two non defective, which can be done in:

(21 )∗(132 )=156 ways .

d) Two of the defective clock is included.
This is equivalent to two defective and one non defective, which can be done in:

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 (22 )∗(131 )=13 ways .

Exercises:
1. Out of 5 Mathematician and 7 Statistician a committee consisting of 2 Mathematician
and 3 Statistician is to be formed. In how many ways this can be done if
a) There is no restriction
b) One particular Statistician should be included
c) Two particular Mathematicians cannot be included on the committee.
2. If 3 books are picked at random from a shelf containing 5 novels, 3 books of poems, and
a dictionary, in how many ways this can be done if
a) There is no restriction.
b) The dictionary is selected?
c) 2 novels and 1 book of poems are selected?

BAYES’ THEOREM
The Bayes’ theorem is useful in revising the original probability estimates as we gain additional
information about the events or outcomes. The prior probabilities when changed in the light of
new information are called revised or posterior probability. Prior probability is the initial
probability based on the present level of information. Posterior probability is a revised
probability based on additional information.

P ( A /Bi ) . P( Bi)
n
P ( Bi /A ) =
∑ ❑ P ( A /Bi ) . P ( Bi )
i=1

Suppose there are two urns, marked I and II. Urn I contains 4 red balls and 6 black balls, and Urn
II has 3 red balls and 2 black balls. Since one of the Urns is to be selected at random for drawing
a ball both Urns have equal probability of being selected that is
P(x1) = p(x2) = ½ where, Urn I be denoted x1 and Urn II be denoted x2
There are four conditional probabilities from the two outcomes.

Red ball (y1) Black ball (y2)

p (y1/x1) = 4/10 p (y2/x1) = 6/10
p (y1/x2) = 3/5 p (y2/x2) = 2/5
From the conditional probability p (x1/y2) that the ball is selected belongs to Urn I (x 1); given that
it is a black ball (y2)
Exercise:
Suppose Urn I contains 4 red, 6 black, 2 white balls; Urn II contains 2 red, 8 black, 4 white balls;
and Urn III contains 6 red, 4 black, and 6 white balls. Further assume that two dies are thrown
together. Let Urn selection be based on the sum of die face points as bellow.
 Urn I is selected for drawing a ball if the sum is equal to 5 or less.
 Urn II is selected for drawing a ball if the sum is equal to 8 or more.

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  Urn III is selected for drawing a ball if the sum is equal to 6 or 7.
a) Find the probability that the ball drawn belongs to Urn I when it is known that it is a
white ball.
b) Find the probability that the ball drawn belongs to Urn II when it is known that it is a
black ball.
c) Find the probability that the ball drawn belongs to Urn III when it is known that it is a red
ball.
4.2 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

INTRODUCTION
In many situations, our interest does not lie in the outcomes of an experiment as such; we may
find it more useful to describe a particular property or attribute of the outcomes of an experiment
in numerical terms. For example, out of three births; our interest may be in the matter of the
probabilities of the number of boys. Consider the sample space of 8 equally likely sample points.
GGG GGB GBG BGG
GBB BGB BBG BBB
Now look at the variable “the number of boys out of three births”. This number varies among
sample points in the sample space and can take values 0,1,2,3, and it is random –given to chance.

“A random variable is an uncertain quantity whose value depends on chance.”

A random variable may be…
 Discrete if it takes only a countable number of values. For example, number of dots on
two dice, number of heads in three coin tossing, number of defective items, number of
boys in three births and so on.
 Continuous if it can take on any value in an interval of numbers (i.e. its possible values
are unaccountably infinite). For example, measured data on heights, weights,
temperature, and time and so on.
A random variable has a probability law - a rule that assigns probabilities to different values of
the random variable. This probability law - the probability assignment is called the probability
distribution of the random variable. We usually denote the random variable by X.

4.2.1 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

The random variable X denoting “the number of boys out of three births”, we introduced in the
introduction of the lesson, is a discrete random variable; so it will have a discrete probability
distribution. It is easy to visualize that the random variable X is a function of sample space. We
can see the correspondence of sample points with the values of the random variable as follows:

GGG GGB GBG BGG

(X=0) (X=1)
GBB BGB BBG BBB
(X=2) (X=3)

The correspondence between sample points and the value of the random variable allows us to
determine the probability distribution of X as follows:
P(X=0) = 1/8 since one out of 8 equally likely points leads to X = 0

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P(X=1) = 3/8 since three out of 8 equally likely points leads to X = 1
P(X=2) = 3/8 since three out of 8 equally likely points leads to X = 2
P(X=3) = 1/8 since one out of 8 equally likely points leads to X = 3
The above probability statement constitute the probability distribution of the random variable X
= number of boys in three births. We may appreciate how this probability law is obtained simply
by associating values of X with sets in the sample space. (For example, the set GGB, GBG, BGG
leads to X = 1). We may write down the probability distribution of X in table format (see Table
4-1)
Table 4-1 Probability Distribution of the Number of Boys out of Three Births
No. of Boys X Probability P(X)
0 1/8
1 3/8
2 3/8
3 1/8
The probability distribution of a discrete random variable X must satisfy the following two
conditions:

1. P(X = x) ≥ 0 for all values x

2. ∑ P ( X=x )=1
all x

These conditions must hold because the P(X = x) values are probabilities. The first condition
specifies that all probabilities must be greater than or equal to zero, as we know from Lesson 4.1
For the second condition, we note that for each value x, P(x) = P(X = x) is the probability of the
event that the random variable equals x. Since by definition all x means all the values the random
variable X may take, and since X may take on only one value at a time, the occurrences of these
values are mutually exclusive events, and one of them must take place.
Therefore, the sum of all the probabilities P(X = x) must be 1.00.

Cumulative Distribution Function

The probability distribution of a discrete random variable lists the probabilities of occurrence of
different values of the random variable. We may be interested in cumulative probabilities of the
random variable. That is, we may be interested in the probability that the value of the random
variable is at most some value x. This is the sum of all the probabilities of the values i of X that
are less than or equal to x.
The cumulative distribution function (also called cumulative probability function) F(X = x) of a
discrete random variable X is
F ( X =x )= p ( X ≤ x )= ∑ p (i)
alli ≤ x

For example, to find the probability of at most two boys out of three births, we have

F ( X =2 )=P ( X ≤ 2 )= ∑ p (i)
all i≤ 2

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 = P(x=0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2)
= 1/3 + 3/8 + 3/8
= 7/8
Discrete probability has three main classifications.
1. Binomial distribution
2. Hyper geometric distribution
3. Poisson distribution

1. Binomial Distribution
Binomial Distribution: It deals with populations whose elements or outcomes can be divided
into two categories with reference to the presence or absence of a particular attribute or
characteristic. for example answers to an exercise may be correct or incorrect, a product may be
defective or non defective etc...
Characteristics of a binomial distribution
 It consist of n trials and each trial has only two outcomes, either of which may be
designated as a success or failures.
 The probability of a success p remains the same in all trials. Consequently, the
probability of a failure q = (1- p) also remains the same in all trials.
 The number of successes in n trials can be expressed by the random variable X that
assumes discrete values from 0 to n.
 Repeated trials are independent since no definite pattern is involved in the occurrence of
either of the two outcomes in successive trials.

Binomial Distribution(b): b (x; n, p) = nCx . px . qn-x or nCx . px . (1-p)n-x

n!
Where: nCx =
x !(n−x )!
μ=np
δ ¿ √ npq
δ = npq
2

n! = is read as n factorial = n(n-1) (n-2) (n-3)......1

n = number of trials
p = probability of success
q = probability of failures
x = exact number of success in a trials (0, 1, 2, 3......n)
C = is the symbol for combination
μ=¿mean of binomial distribution
δ=¿ Standard deviation of binomial distribution
2
δ =¿ Variance of binomial distribution

Example 11: toss a coin 4 times; what is the probability of getting:

a) exactly two heads
b) exactly four heads
c) at most three heads

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Example 12: In the throw of a fair die, point 5 coming up is considered a success with
probability = 1/6. The probability of not getting point 5, a failure is q (1-p) = 5/6. If the die is
throw 4 times. Find all the binomial probability?
Example 13: Suppose 60% of Management students pass Statistics for Management I final
examination and there were a total of 50 students, find
a) the expected value of the number of success
b) standard deviation and variance

2. Hyper geometric Distribution

Hyper geometric Distribution: deals with situations where a random sample of size n drawn
without replacement from a finite population, and the resultant outcomes are classified into two
categories (successes and failures) according to some characteristics or attributes.

Characteristics of hyper geometric distribution

i. A random sample of size n is selected from the finite population of N items without
replacement; so that the probability of getting a success is not the same in each trials.
ii. K out of N items comprising the population are classified as success and (N-K) items as
failures.
Hyper geometric Distribution(h): h(x; N, n, k) = h(x) = (kCx) (N-k)Cn-x
NCn
K
μ = n( ¿
N

K N −K N −n
δ = n( ¿( ¿( ¿
2
N N N−1
Where; N = the size of the population
K = the number of successes in the population
n = the size of the sample or the number of trials
x = the number of success of interest, it may be 0, 1, 2, 3,..........n
Example 14: Assume that an Urn contains 6 red balls and 4 black balls. If a sample of 4 balls is
drawn from the Urn without replacement. find:
a) the probability of getting 2 successes out of 6 balls
b) the probability of all values of hyper geometric variables
c) the mean and the variance of hyper geometric distribution
Example 15: Suppose 50 play stations were manufactured during the week. Forty operated
perfectly and ten had at least one defect. A sample of 5 is selected at random without
replacement. What is the probability that 4 of the 5 will operate perfectly?

3. Poisson Distribution
Poisson Distribution: refers to the problem situation in which occurrence an event and counting
the number of times the event occurs during the specified time intervals.
 It is the number of occurrences of an event and not the non- occurrences in a given
situations that is of interest.
 the events must be random and independent of each other.

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 x −μ
μ e
Poisson Distribution = p(x) =
x!
Where, μ=¿is the average number of occurrence(successes) per unit of time
e = is the base of natural logarithms and is equal to 2.718282
x = is the number of occurrence (success)
Example 16: Assume that on an average 3 persons enter the bank for service every 10 minutes.
What is the probability that exactly 5 customers will enter the bank in a given 10 minutes period,
assuming that the process can be described by the Poisson distribution.
Example 17: Customers arrive at a photocopying machine at an average rate of two every 10
minutes. the number of arrival is distributed according to a Poisson distribution. What is the
probability that:
a) there will be no arrivals during any period of 10 minutes.
b) there will be exactly one arrival during this time period.
c) there will be more than two arrivals during this period

4.2.2 Continuous probability Distribution (Normal Distribution)

The normal distribution is a continuous distribution and plays a very important role in statistical
theory and practice particularly in the areas of statistical quality control.

Characteristics of the normal curve

1. the normal curve is not a single curve representing only one continuous distribution. It
represents a family of normal curve.
2. the normal curve is completely determine by the values of mean and standard deviation
which are its two parameters.
3. the curve has a single peak at the center of the distribution. It has the same value for
mean, median and mode.
4. the height of the curve declines as we go in either directions from the mean, but never
touches the base so that, the tails of the curve on both sides of the mean extend
indefinitely.
5. being bell-shaped, the normal curve is perfectly symmetrical about the vertical axis
through the mean. As a result 50% of the area lies to the rights of the mean and the other
50% to its left.
6. no matter what values of mean and standard deviation are for a normal probability
distribution, the total area under the normal curve is 1.
The resultant Z values express the distance between mean and the x values measured interms of
standard deviation.

x−μ
Z= δ or x = μ ± zδ
Z score is positive for values which are to the right of the mean and negative to the left of the
mean.

Three different ways of measuring the area under the normal curve
1. About 68% of the area under the normal curve is within ±1 standard deviation from the
mean.

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 2. About 95.45% of the area under the normal curve is within ±2 standard deviation from
the mean.
3. About 99.75% of the area under the normal curve is within ±3 standard deviation from
the mean.

Finding the areas when the score is known

Example 18: The IQ scores of students is normally distributed with mean of 120 and standard
deviation of 20. What proportion of students have:
a) An IQ between 100 and 130
b) An IQ above 140
c) An IQ below 150
d) An IQ between 140 and 150

Finding the score when the area is known

Example 19: Taking the above mean = 120 and standard deviation = 20 and answer the
following questions:
a) find the score so that 20% of the students have an IQ above this score
b) What are the limits within the central 50% of the score lies?
c) find the score so that 70% of the students have an IQ below this score.

Exercise: The final examination scores in Statistics are normally distributed with an average
score of 70 and variance of 25.
a) If the lowest passing grade is 58, what percentage of the class is failing?
b) If the professor gives the grades on a curve and everybody getting 82 or above gets a
grade of A, then what percentage of students get A grade?
c) If the highest 80% of the class are to pass the course, what is the lowest passing score?
d) What should the score be so that only 15% of the students get a score higher than this?

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