ThinkHazard - Bulacan

ThinkHazard!
Identify natural hazards in your project area

and understand how to reduce their impact
Bulacan
Philippines , Region III (Central Luzon)
     
River flood Urban flood Coastal flood Landslide Volcano Cyclone
    
Wildfire Earthquake Tsunami Extreme heat Water scarcity
Report generated on 2021-05-20

from https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/24221-philippines-region-iii-central-luzon-bulacan
About ThinkHazard!
ThinkHazard! is a new web-based tool enabling non-specialists to consider the impacts of disasters on new development projects.
Users of ThinkHazard! can quickly and robustly assess the level of river flood, earthquake, drought, cyclone, coastal flood, tsunami,
volcano, and landslide hazard within their project area to assist with project planning and design.
ThinkHazard! is a simple flagging system to highlight the hazards present in a project area. As such, a user is only required to enter their
project location – national, provincial or district name. The results interface shows a user whether they require high, medium or low
awareness of each hazard when planning their project.
ThinkHazard! also provides recommendations and guidance on how to reduce the risk from each hazard within the project area, and
provides links to additional resources such as country risk assessments, best practice guidance, additional websites. ThinkHazard! also
highlights how each hazard may change in the future as a result of climate change.
The ThinkHazard! methodology is documented here.
Developed by
In partnership with
The following organizations have contributed data and / or expert input to the development of this tool:
The tool code is open source, to encourage other users to adapt the tool to their needs. The code can be found on Github.
Current instance version is .

Source of Administrative boundaries: The Global Administrative Unit Layers (GAUL) dataset, implemented by FAO within the CountrySTAT
and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) projects.
ThinkHazard! is available under the GNU General Public Licence, Version 3, 29 June 2007. Text content is licenced under CC-BY-SA.
Classified hazard levels are licenced under CC-BY. Original hazard data are licenced under their original terms, which are contained in the
associated layer metadata.
The data was published for the last time on Tue Jun 30 15:57:03 2020.
Disclaimer
The hazard levels and guidance given in ThinkHazard! do not replace the need for detailed natural hazard risk analysis
and/or expert advice. While ThinkHazard! does its best to scientifically determine the hazard level, there are still uncertainties in the
data and analysis. Users of the tool should access more information by contacting relevant national authorities, reviewing the
recommended resources, and through accessing detailed hazard data.
Information in this screening tool is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or scientific advice or
service. The World Bank makes no warranties or representations, express or implied as to the accuracy or reliability of this tool or the
data contained therein. A user of this tool should seek qualified experts for specific diagnosis and analysis of a particular project. Any
use thereof or reliance thereon is at the sole and independent discretion and responsibility of the user. No conclusions or inferences
drawn from the tool or relating to any aspect of any of the maps shown on the tool, should be attributed to the World Bank, its Board
of Executive Directors, its Management, or any of its member countries.
The ThinkHazard! administration team periodically adds, changes, improves, or updates the Materials on this Site without notice. This
Site also contains links to third-party websites. The linked sites are not under the control of the World Bank and it is not responsible
for the contents of any linked site or any link contained in a linked site. These links are provided only as a convenience, and the
inclusion of a link does not imply endorsement of the linked site by The World Bank.
The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in the tool do not imply any judgment or
endorsement on the part of the World Bank or any providers of hazard data, concerning the delimitation or the legal status of any
territory or boundaries. In no event will the World Bank be liable for any form of damage arising from the application or misapplication
of the tool, any maps, or any associated materials.
Administrative boundaries are sourced from The Global Administrative Unit Layers (GAUL) dataset, implemented by FAO within the
CountrySTAT and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) projects, with some amendment to administrative unit names.
ThinkHazard! 2021-05-20 | https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/24221-philippines-region-iii-central-luzon-bulacan/LS
Bulacan
 Philippines , Region III (Central Luzon)
Landslide Hazard level: High
In the area you have selected landslide susceptibility is classified as high according to the information that is currently available. This
means that this area has rainfall patterns, terrain slope, geology, soil, land cover and (potentially) earthquakes that make localized
landslides a frequent hazard phenomenon. Based on this information, planning decisions such as project siting, project design, and
construction methods, must take into account the potential for landslides. Further detailed information should be obtained to better
understand the level of landslide susceptibility in your project area.
Climate change impact: Climate change is likely to alter slope and bedrock stability through changes in precipitation and/or temperature.
It is di icult to determine future locations and timing of large rock avalanches, as these depend on local geological conditions and other
non-climatic factors.
20 km
© Mapbox © OpenStreetMap
High Medium Low Very low
Data source: GFDRR
Further resources
 Country Adaptation Profile: Philippines
 Forum on Safe and Resilient Infrastructure
 Turn Down the Heat : Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience
 Overview of Natural Disasters and their Impacts in Asia and the Pacific 1970 - 2014
 Community Based Landslide Risk Reduction
 Defining disaster resilience: a DFID approach paper
 EMDAT: Country Profile on Historical Disaster Events
 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Country Profiles
 Global Risk Patterns and Trends in Global Assessment Report
 Guidance on Safe School Construction
 Shock Waves : Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty
 Towards Safer School Construction

 Turn Down the Heat : Why a 4 Degree Centrigrade Warmer World Must be Avoided
 Understanding Risk in an Evolving World - Emerging Best Practices in Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
 Climate Change Knowledge Portal
 Building Urban Resilience - Principles, Tools, and Practice

ThinkHazard! 2021-05-20 | https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/24221-philippines-region-iii-central-luzon-bulacan/CF
Bulacan
 Philippines , Region III (Central Luzon)
Coastal flood Hazard level: High
In the area you have selected (Bulacan) coastal flood hazard is classified as high according to the information that is currently available.
This means that potentially-damaging waves are expected to flood the coast at least once in the next 10 years. Based on this
information, the impact of coastal flood must be considered in di erent phases of the project for any activities located near the coast.
Project planning decisions, project design, and construction methods must take into account the level of coastal flood hazard.
Further detailed information should be obtained to adequately account for the level of hazard.
Climate change impact: According to the IPCC (2013), there is high confidence that extremes in sea level will increase with mean sea
level rise yet there is low confidence in region-specific projections in storm surges. Projects in low-lying coastal areas such as deltas, or in
island states should be designed to be robust to projected increases in global sea level.
20 km
Data source: Muis-et-al
Further resources
 FLOPROS: A global database of Flood Protection Standards
 INFORM: Index for Risk Management

ThinkHazard! 2021-05-20 | https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/24221-philippines-region-iii-central-luzon-bulacan/FL
Bulacan
 Philippines , Region III (Central Luzon)
River flood Hazard level: High
In the area you have selected (Bulacan) river flood hazard is classified as high based on modeled flood information currently available to
this tool. This means that potentially damaging and life-threatening river floods are expected to occur at least once in the next 10 years.
Project planning decisions, project design, and construction methods must take into account the level of river flood hazard.
Surface flood hazard in urban and rural areas is not included in this hazard classification, and may also be possible in this location.
Please see 'Urban Flood' for consideration of urban surface and river flooding.The following is a list of recommendations that could be
followed in di erent phases of the project to help reduce the risk to your project. Please note that these recommendations are generic
and not project-specific.
Climate change impacts: Medium confidence in more frequent and intense heavy precipitation days and an increase in the number of
extreme rainfall events. The present hazard level may increase in the future due to the e ects of climate change. It would be prudent to
design projects in this area to be robust to river flood hazard in the long-term.
20 km
Data source: GFDRR
Further resources
 Enhancing Risk Analysis Capacities for Flood, Tropical Cyclone Severe Wind and Earthquake for Greater Metro Manila Area Earthquake for Greater Metro
Manila Area
 Analysis and evaluation of Flood risk management practice in selected megacities

 Understanding the Economics of Flood Risk Reduction
 Weather and Climate Resilience: E ective Preparedness through National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
 Weather and Climate Resilience: E ective Preparedness through National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
 Cities and Flooding: A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21st Century
 Cities and Flooding: A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21st Century
ThinkHazard! 2021-05-20 | https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/24221-philippines-region-iii-central-luzon-bulacan/VA
Bulacan
 Philippines , Region III (Central Luzon)
Volcano Hazard level: High
In the area you have selected (Bulacan) volcanic hazard is classified as high according to the information that is currently available. This
means that the selected area is located at less than 50 km from a volcano for which a potentially damaging eruption has been recorded
in the past 2,000 years and that future damaging eruptions are possible. Based on this information, the impact of volcanic eruption
must be considered in all phases of the project, in particular during project design, implementation and maintenance. Further
detailed information should be obtained to adequately account for the level of risk posed by individual volcanoes.
20 km
Data source: GFDRR
Further resources
 Earthquake-report.com - Independent Earthquake Reporting Site
 Guidelines on preparedness before, during and a er an ashfall
 Living with volcanoes - The sustainable livelihoods approach for volcano-related opportunities
 The health hazards of volcanic ash - A guide for the public
 Volcanic Ash impacts on critical infrastructure
 Volcanic Ash: What it can do and how to prevent damage

 Volcanic ash fall hazard and risk
 Volcanic gases and aerosols guidelines
 Volcanic hazards and their mitigation - Progress and problems
 Volcano Observatory database - World Organization of Volcano Observatories (WOVO)
 Database of Volcanoes - Global Volansim Program

ThinkHazard! 2021-05-20 | https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/24221-philippines-region-iii-central-luzon-bulacan/UF
Bulacan
 Philippines , Region III (Central Luzon)
Urban flood Hazard level: High
In the area you have selected (Bulacan) urban flood hazard is classified as high based on modeled flood information currently available
to this tool. This means that potentially damaging and life-threatening urban floods are expected to occur at least once in the next 10
years. Project planning decisions, project design, and construction methods must take into account the level of urban flood
hazard. The following is a list of recommendations that could be followed in di erent phases of the project to help reduce the risk to
your project. Please note that these recommendations are generic and not project-specific.
Climate change impacts: Medium confidence in more frequent and intense heavy precipitation days and an increase in the number of
extreme rainfall events. The present hazard level may increase in the future due to the e ects of climate change. It would be prudent to
design projects in this area to be robust to river flood hazard in the long-term.
20 km
Data source: Fathom Global
Further resources
ThinkHazard! 2021-05-20 | https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/24221-philippines-region-iii-central-luzon-bulacan/CY
Bulacan
 Philippines , Region III (Central Luzon)
Cyclone Hazard level: High
In the area you have selected (Bulacan) cyclone (also known as hurricane or typhoon) hazard is classified as high according to the
information that is currently available. This means that there is more than a 20% chance of potentially-damaging wind speeds in your
project area in the next 10 years. Based on this information, the impact of cyclones must be considered in all phases of the project, in
particular during design and construction. Project planning decisions, project design, and construction methods should take into
account the level of cyclone hazard. Note that damages can not only occur due to wind but also cyclone induced heavy rainfall and
subsequent flooding as well as coastal floods in coastal areas. Further detailed information should be obtained to adequately account
for the level of hazard.
Climate change impact: Global average tropical cyclone wind speed and rainfall is likely to increase in the future, and the global average
frequency of tropical cyclones is likely to decrease or remain unchanged. It is possible that the frequency of the most intense tropical
cyclones will increase substantially in some ocean regions (IPCC, 2013). The present hazard level in areas currently a ected by tropical
cyclones may increase in the long-term. Projects located in such areas should be robust to future increases in cyclone hazard.
20 km
Data source: GFDRR
Further resources
 Reconstruction and Recovery in the A ermath of Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda)
Manila Area

 Past Tropical Cyclones

ThinkHazard! 2021-05-20 | https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/24221-philippines-region-iii-central-luzon-bulacan/WF
Bulacan
 Philippines , Region III (Central Luzon)
Wildfire Hazard level: High
In the area you have selected (Bulacan) the wildfire hazard is classified as high according to the information that is currently available to
this tool. This means that there is greater than a 50% chance of encountering weather that could support a significant wildfire that is
likely to result in both life and property loss in any given year. Based on this information, the impact of wildfire must be considered in all
phases of the project, in particular during design and construction. Project planning decisions, project design, construction and
emergency response planning methods should take into account the high level of wildfire hazard. Note that damage can not only
occur due to direct flame and radiation exposure but may also include ember storm and low level surface fire. In extreme fire weather
events, strong winds and wind born debris may weaken the integrity of infrastructure. It would be prudent to consider this e ect in the
design and construction phase of the project. Further detailed information specific to the location and planned project should be
obtained to adequately understand the level of hazard.
Climate change impacts: Modeled projections of future climate identify a likely increase in the frequency of fire weather occurrence in
this region, including an increase in temperature and greater variance in rainfall. In areas already a ected by wildfire hazard, the fire
season is likely to increase in duration, and include a greater number of days with weather that could support fire spread because of
longer periods without rain during fire seasons. Climate projections indicate that there could also be an increase in the severity of fire. It
would be prudent to design projects in this area to be robust to increases in the severity and frequency of wildfire hazard. Areas of very
low or low wildfire hazard could see an increase in hazard, as climate projections indicate an expansion of the wildfire hazard zone.
Consider local studies on the impacts of climate change on wildfire trends, before deciding whether to design projects to withstand fire
of greater intensity than those previously experienced in this region.
20 km
Data source: World Bank
Further resources
ThinkHazard! 2021-05-20 | https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/24221-philippines-region-iii-central-luzon-bulacan/TS
Bulacan
 Philippines , Region III (Central Luzon)
Tsunami Hazard level: Medium
In the area you have selected (Bulacan) tsunami hazard is classified as medium according to the information that is currently available.
This means that there is more than a 10% chance of a potentially-damaging tsunami occurring in the next 50 years. Based on this
information, the impact of tsunami should be considered in di erent phases of the project for any activities located near the coast.
Project planning decisions, project design, and construction methods should take into account the level tsunami hazard.
Further detailed information should be obtained to adequately account for the level of hazard.
Climate change impact: The areas at risk of tsunami will increase as global mean sea level rises. According to the IPCC (2013), global
mean sea level rise depends on a variety of factors, and estimates for 2100 range from ~20 cm to nearly 1 m. However, regional changes
in sea level are di icult to predict. Projects in low-lying coastal areas such as deltas, or in island states should be designed to be robust
to projected increases in global sea level.
20 km
Data source: GFDRR
Further resources
 A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment of the Indian Ocean Nations
 The Indian Ocean Tsunami of 26 December 2004
 The Indian Ocean Tsunami of 26 December 2004
 Learning from Megadisasters: Lessons from the Great Japan Earthquake
 Learning from Megadisasters: Lessons from the Great Japan Earthquake

 Preparing your community for tsunamis
 Tsunami Runup Database

ThinkHazard! 2021-05-20 | https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/24221-philippines-region-iii-central-luzon-bulacan/EH
Bulacan
 Philippines , Region III (Central Luzon)
Extreme heat Hazard level: Medium
In the area you have selected (Bulacan) extreme heat hazard is classified as medium based on modeled heat information currently
available to this tool. This means that there is more than a 25% chance that at least one period of prolonged exposure to extreme heat,
resulting in heat stress, will occur in the next five years. Project planning decisions, project design, and construction methods
should take into account the level of extreme hazard. The following is a list of recommendations that could be followed in di erent
phases of the project to help reduce the risk to your project. Please note that these recommendations are generic and not project-
specific.
According to the most recent assessment report of the Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013), continued emissions of
greenhouse gases will cause further warming, and it is virtually certain that there will be more frequent hot temperature extremes over
most land areas during the next fi y years. Warming will not be regionally uniform. In the area you have selected, the temperature
increase in the next fi y years will be much lower than the worldwide average, but still significant. It would be prudent to design projects
in this area to be robust to global warming in the long-term.
20 km
Data source: World Bank
Further resources
 Excessive Heat Events Guidebook
 Heatwaves and Health: Guidance on Warning-System Development

ThinkHazard! 2021-05-20 | https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/24221-philippines-region-iii-central-luzon-bulacan/EQ
Bulacan
 Philippines , Region III (Central Luzon)
Earthquake Hazard level: Medium
In the area you have selected (Bulacan) earthquake hazard is classified as medium according to the information that is currently
available. This means that there is a 10% chance of potentially-damaging earthquake shaking in your project area in the next 50 years.
Based on this information, the impact of earthquake should be considered in all phases of the project, in particular during design and
construction. Project planning decisions, project design, and construction methods should take into account the level of
earthquake hazard. Further detailed information should be obtained to adequately account for the level of hazard.
20 km
Data source: GFDRR
Further resources
Manila Area
 Strengthening natural hazard risk assessment capacity in the Philippines: An earthquake impact pilot study for Iloilo City, Western Visayas
 Global Earthquake Model - GEM Foundation
 Reducing Earthquake Risk in Hospitals
 Temblor
 Hospital Safety Index Guide
 E-learning course: Understanding Risk (World Bank)
 Comprehensive Safe Hospital Framework

ThinkHazard! 2021-05-20 | https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/24221-philippines-region-iii-central-luzon-bulacan/DG
Bulacan
 Philippines , Region III (Central Luzon)
Water scarcity Hazard level: Low
In the area you have selected (Bulacan) water scarcity is classified as low according to the information that is currently available to this
tool. This means that there is a 1% chance drought will occur in the coming 10 years. Based on this information, the impact of drought
should be considered in all phases of the project, in particular its e ect on personnel and stakeholders, and during design of buildings
and infrastructure. Project planning decisions, project design, and construction methods may take into account the level of
drought hazard. Further detailed information should be obtained to adequately account for the level of hazard.
Climate change impact: Model projections are inconsistent in their estimates of change in drought hazard, which influences water
scarcity. The present hazard level may increase in the future due to the e ects of climate change. It would be prudent to design projects
in this area to be robust to increased drought hazard and water scarcity in the long-term.
20 km
Data source: IVM / VU University Amsterdam
Further resources
 Drought Risk Reduction: Framework and Practices
 National Drought Management Policy Guidelines: A Template for Action


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ThinkHazard!

Identify natural hazards in your project area

Report generated on 2021-05-20

The ThinkHazard! methodology is documented here.

Current instance version is .

Landslide Hazard level: High

High Medium Low Very low

Data source: GFDRR

 Forum on Safe and Resilient Infrastructure

 Community Based Landslide Risk Reduction

 Defining disaster resilience: a DFID approach paper

 EMDAT: Country Profile on Historical Disaster Events

 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Country Profiles

 Global Risk Patterns and Trends in Global Assessment Report

 Guidance on Safe School Construction

 Shock Waves : Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty

 Towards Safer School Construction

 Climate Change Knowledge Portal

 Building Urban Resilience - Principles, Tools, and Practice

Coastal flood Hazard level: High

High Medium Low Very low

Data source: Muis-et-al

 Climate Change Knowledge Portal

 EMDAT: Country Profile on Historical Disaster Events

 FLOPROS: A global database of Flood Protection Standards

 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Country Profiles

 INFORM: Index for Risk Management

 Shock Waves : Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty

 Building Urban Resilience - Principles, Tools, and Practice

River flood Hazard level: High

High Medium Low Very low

Data source: GFDRR

 Country Adaptation Profile: Philippines

 Forum on Safe and Resilient Infrastructure

 Analysis and evaluation of Flood risk management practice in selected megacities

 Climate Change Knowledge Portal

 Defining disaster resilience: a DFID approach paper

 EMDAT: Country Profile on Historical Disaster Events

 FLOPROS: A global database of Flood Protection Standards

 Global Risk Patterns and Trends in Global Assessment Report

 Guidance on Safe School Construction

 INFORM: Index for Risk Management

 Shock Waves : Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty

 Towards Safer School Construction

 Understanding the Economics of Flood Risk Reduction

 Building Urban Resilience - Principles, Tools, and Practice

Volcano Hazard level: High

High Medium Low Very low

Data source: GFDRR

 Defining disaster resilience: a DFID approach paper

 EMDAT: Country Profile on Historical Disaster Events

 Earthquake-report.com - Independent Earthquake Reporting Site

 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Country Profiles

 Guidance on Safe School Construction

 Guidelines on preparedness before, during and a er an ashfall

 The health hazards of volcanic ash - A guide for the public

 Towards Safer School Construction

 Volcanic Ash impacts on critical infrastructure

 Volcanic Ash: What it can do and how to prevent damage

 Volcanic gases and aerosols guidelines