24 - Practical Poker Math (Pat Dittmar)
24 - Practical Poker Math (Pat Dittmar)
24 - Practical Poker Math (Pat Dittmar)
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BICYCLE®, BEE® and all related brand elements and designs are
registered trademarks of the United States Playing Card Company,
used here with permission.
Dittmar, Pat
Practical poker math / Pat Dittmar.
isbn 978-1-55022-833-5
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Constantin Dinca
Learned Mathematician and Programming Wizard
Peggy Payne
For Bringing Order to the Chaos
Alice Jue
Lady of Art, Letters and Vodka Martinis
Bernadette Castello
For Everything
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Table of Contents
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
1. Introduction to Game Theory in Poker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Game Theory — A Historical Perspective. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Game Theory and Poker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
2. The Basic Calculations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Odds & Probabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Combinations, Permutations & Factorials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Money Odds & Expectation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Total Odds & Real Expectation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Odds in Texas Hold’em . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Odds in Omaha Hi-Lo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
3. Odds in Texas Hold’em . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Starting Hands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Odds & Probabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
The Calculations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
Pocket Pairs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Suited Cards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
2 Big Cards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Rags . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Before the Flop . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
The Calculations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Pocket Pairs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Suited Cards. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
2 Suited in the Hole. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
2 Big Cards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
After the Flop . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
Odds of Improvement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
Money Odds, Overlays & Expectation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
From a Game Theory Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
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vi
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vii
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Preface
ix
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Introduction
xi
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The first aim of this book is simplicity and clarity so that any
player will be able to access the power of odds, probability
and game theory information in support of each poker deci-
sion.
xii
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1. Introduction to
Game Theory in Poker
Some believe that the study of Game Theory began with the
works of Daniel Bernoulli. A mathematician born in 1700,
Bernoulli is probably best known for his work with the prop-
erties and relationships of pressure, density, velocity and fluid
flow. Known as “Bernoulli’s Principle,” this work forms the
basis of jet engine production and operation today. Pressured
by his father to enter the world of commerce, he is also cred-
ited with introducing the concepts of expected utility and
diminishing returns. This work in particular can be of use
when “pricing” bets or bluffs in no-limit poker.
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Yet still others believe that the study of Game Theory began
with the publication of Antoine Augustin Cournot’s The
Recherches in the early 1800s. The work dealt with the opti-
mization of output as a best dynamic response.
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But in poker, while all players at any given table have access to
the same common information, not all of them are smart
enough to do something with it. Players who know more about
odds and probabilities, and whose instincts and keen observa-
tion enable them to better process the common knowledge
around them, will take far better advantage of this information
and will have correspondingly higher positive expectations.
So while all the players at the table have access to the same
common knowledge, some players are able to base their
actions on knowledge that is more complete. That all players
in all games will always act rationally is never a safe assump-
tion in poker.
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Strategy
The players who have dominated the game in the past and
the players who will do so in the future are the few who can
convert the common knowledge available to every player at
the table into more complete knowledge.
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Odds
Odds in poker are expressed as a ratio of the Negatives to the
Positives:
WILLNOTs : WILLs
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WILLNOTs : WILLs
48 : 4
Reduce
48 / 4 : 4 / 4
12 : 1
Probabilities
Probabilities are expressed as either a decimal ratio to 1 or as a
percentage. Here is an easy-to-use formula to calculate either:
10
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4 = .0769
52
4 100 = 7.69%
52 *
6 = .0045249
1,326
11
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4 3 = .0045249
52 * 51
Conversions
Because ALL odds and probability calculations begin with
two of three basic values (Total Possibilities, WILLs and
WILLNOTs), the conversion of odds to probability or vice
versa is straightforward.
4 100 = 7.6923%
52 *
12
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1 = .076923
13
Total Possibilities = 1
– WILLs = .076923
WILLNOTs = .923077
13
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Combinations
The mechanics of the math used to determine the enumera-
tion of combinations is more easily demonstrated than
explained.
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15
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(4 * 3) = 6
(1 * 2)
With 10 great picks for a weekend of sports betting, to find
the number of 4-bet parlays — Comb(10, 4):
(10 * 9 * 8 * 7) = 210
(1 * 2 * 3 * 4)
The Lottery
We can use these same formulae to find the odds or proba-
bility of winning a state lottery. As an example, use a lottery
where, to win, a player must correctly pick 5 numbers in the
range of 1 through 47 and 1 correct “special” number from
1 through 27.
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1,533,939 * 27 = 41,416,353
WILLNOTs : WILLs
41,416,352 : 1
Assume that
1. yours was the only winning ticket
2. you took a cash-settlement for half the amount and
3 you have to pay 1/3 of your win in taxes.
To have a positive expectation from the purchase of a $1.00
ticket, the lottery’s first prize would have to be on the order
of $125,000,000.00.
Permutations
To demonstrate the difference between combinations and
permutations, the two hands below are 2 different permuta-
tions of the same combination.
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52 * 51 = 2,652
8 * 7 * 6 = 336
Factorials
Factorials are seldom, if ever, used in poker and are mostly
about orderings. A deck of 52 cards contains one combina-
tion and many permutations or orderings.
52 * 51 * 50 * 49 * 48 *… through * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1
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Put another way: if the money odds are greater than the overall
odds of winning the pot, you have a positive expectation.
Pot Odds
Pot Odds are an expression of what the pot is offering on a
particular round and doesn’t take into consideration any
action that might come on future rounds.
With $600 in the pot plus a $100 bet to you and $100 to call,
the pot is offering Pot Odds of 7 : 1.
Implied Odds
Implied odds are the money odds offered by the current pot
plus a best estimate of the money that will be added to the
pot on future rounds of betting.
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Expectation
Expectation is the return that can be anticipated from any
given wager or proposition after enough bets have been
made to normalize the result.
We know that the odds against drawing an Ace from the top
of a well and fairly shuffled deck are 12 : 1 against.
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Fluctuation is short-term.
Expectation is long-term.
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For example, assume you are in a game where you have good
knowledge of your opponents, you are on the button before
the last card, and you have a 25% or 1 in 4 chance of com-
pleting a draw to what will surely be the best hand.
22
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23
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Starting Hands
Calculating the odds or probability that you will receive any
given starting hand involves knowing
♦ the number of 2-card combinations that WILL be
the hand
24
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(4 * 3) = 6
(1 * 2)
25
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4 3 = .0045249
52 * 51
To calculate the odds that you will find ANY pair in the
pocket:
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27
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1,128 * 2 = 2,256
From the 12 ranks that do not include the rank of the pocket
pair, there are 48 different 3-card combinations that are Sets
— Comb(4, 3) * 12:
(4 * 3 * 2) 12 = 48
(1 * 2 * 3) *
You now have all the numbers needed to calculate the odds
of flopping a Set or a Full House:
28
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17,296 : 2,304 .
Reduce
17,296 / 2,304 : 2,304 / 2,304 .
7.5 : 1 .
After the Flop and before the Turn, counting your 2 hole
cards and the 3 Flop cards, there are 47 unseen cards.
29
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Total Possibilities = 47
– WILLs = 8
WILLNOTs = 39
30
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8 * 39 = 312
(8 * 7) = 28
(1 * 2)
31
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Runner — Runner
After the Flop and with 2 cards to come, you will need help
on both of them. No one card will do it.
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33
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After the Turn card has hit the board, there are 2 cards in
your pocket, 4 on the board and 46 unseen cards.
Total Possibilities = 46
There are 8 cards (4 on each end) that will make the Straight:
Total Possibilities = 46
– WILLs = 8
WILLNOTs = 38
34
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35
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(4 * 3) = 6
(1 * 2)
36
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6 * 1,128 = 6,768
37
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To flop a Nut Low with this hand, the board must contain 3
unpaired cards ranked 3 through 8. There are 6 ranks of 4
suits, making Comb(24, 2) 2-card combinations:
240 * 16 = 3,840
To flop Aces Full the board must contain an Ace and any
pair. With this hand there are 66 unseen pairs ranked 3
through K, plus 1 pair of Aces and 3 pairs of Deuces, for a
38
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70 * 2 = 140
39
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After the Flop and before the Turn, counting your 4 hole
cards, there are 45 unseen cards.
Total Possibilities = 45
– WILLs = 21
WILLNOTs = 24
40
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41
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42
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With 2 low cards in the hole and 1 usable low card on the
board, even if the board low card is paired, there are 20 cards
of 5 ranks, any unpaired 2 of which will make the runner
Low — Comb(20, 2), minus the 30 pairs possible among the
cards from these 5 ranks. Therefore:
43
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After the Turn card has hit the board, there are 4 cards in
your pocket, 4 on the board and 44 unseen cards.
Total Possibilities = 44
– WILLs = 16
WILLNOTs = 28
16 100 = 36%
44 *
44
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Over time a player will receive the same cards and opportu-
nities as any other player. Each player at the table has access
to the same information as all other players at the table. The
degree to which a player will triumph over the table depends
on his ability to
1. Process and weigh available information as inputs
into his decision support system
2. Devise and implement strategies based on that
information.
Hold’em is the one poker variation that
rewards skill and understanding above all others.
45
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The best poker decisions are those based on the best strategy
and the best strategy is based on the best information.
Basic odds and probabilities tell a player much about his own
hand and its likelihood of success. Those same odds apply
individually and collectively to all other players at the table.
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All players get the same number of good hands. It is the rare
and, oftentimes, extremely successful player who can win
pots with very strong hands and very weak hands alike.
Basic calculations will explain how often the player will see
certain starting hands, how often those starting hands will
complete into winning hands and whether certain hands are
worth drawing to from a money/expectation perspective.
47
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48
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Starting Hands
Starting Hands
Your first chance to gain an edge over your opponents is with
your starting hands. Some hands, like suited connectors,
have longer odds of improving and thus do better when you
have more money/players in the pot. Other hands, like big
Pocket Pairs such as AA or KK, are already “made” hands
and do better with fewer players drawing against them.
This section will give you a good idea of what to expect from
starting hands and how often to expect them.
While it is true that you will find rags in the hole four out of
five times — it is also true that four out of five of your oppo-
nents will also find rags in the hole.
49
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50
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Starting Hands
51
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The table below displays both the odds and the probability
that any given player will receive certain hands as his first
two cards. The calculations to determine these odds and
probabilities are demonstrated below the table.
The Calculations
52
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Starting Hands
Pocket Pairs
(4 * 3) = 6
(1 * 2)
The odds and probability that any given player will receive
the Pairs listed below as his hole cards are:
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Pocket Aces
The odds against being dealt Aces in the hole in Hold’em are:
54
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Starting Hands
4 3 = .0045249
52 * 51
Total Possibilities = 1
– WILLs = .0045249
WILLNOTs = .9954751
WILLNOTs : WILLs
.9954751 : .0045249
Reduce
.9954751 / .0045249 : .0045249 / .0045249
220 : 1
The likelihood of any Pair in the hole for any given player
expressed as odds is:
55
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78 100 = 5.9%
1,326 *
Pocket JJ or Better
56
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Starting Hands
24 100 = 1.8%
1,326 *
Pocket 22 through TT
Percentage calculation:
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54 100 = 4.1%
1,326 *
Combination of Probabilities:
36 3 = .0407
52 * 51
Suited Cards
The table below reflects the likelihood that any given player
will hold any two suited cards, suited connectors or a suited
Ace (Ax).
58
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Starting Hands
Suited Connectors
28 100 = 2.1%
1,326 *
59
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48 100 = 3.6%
1,326 *
Any 2 Suited
Because the first card can be any card in the deck, the prob-
ability that you will be dealt 2 suited cards is equal to the
probability that the suit of the second card will match the
suit of the first:
12 100 = 2.1%
51 *
60
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Starting Hands
Total Possibilities = 51
– WILLs = 12
WILLNOTs = 39
To find the odds against 2 suited cards in the hole, first find
the number of possible 2-card combinations for each suit —
Comb(13, 2), then multiply by 4:
WILLs = 312
61
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2 Big Cards
This table shows the odds that any given player’s hole cards
will be certain Big Card combinations.
16 100 = 1.2%
1,326 *
62
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Starting Hands
4 100 = .3%
1,326 *
63
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96 100 = 7.2%
1,326 *
64
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Starting Hands
Any Ace
Rags
Rags are all the hands not mentioned above. Rags are the
hands that are left over after all the good hands have been
taken out. Rags are usually not playable except in special sit-
uations or for free from the blind.
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Non-Rag Hands
78 – Pair Hands
28 – Suited Connectors
48 – Suited Ace
96 – 2 Unpaired Big Cards
250 – Non-Rag Hands (WILLNOTs)
66
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Starting Hands
67
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68
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will flop this same hidden Set once every 12–18 minutes
online and once every 25–40 minutes in the casino.
WILLNOTs : WILLs
8.28 : 1
WILLs = 1
+ WILLNOTs = 8.28
Total Possibilities = 9.28
69
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1 100 = 10.8%
9.28 *
70
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The Calculations
Pocket Pairs
71
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1,128 – 72 = 1,056
1,056 * 2 = 2,112
72
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1,128 * 2 = 2,256
73
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the pocket. From the 12 ranks that do not include the rank
of the Pocket Pair there are 48 different 3-card combinations
that are Sets — Comb(4, 3):
(4 * 3 * 2) 12 = 48
(1 * 2 * 3) *
To flop a Full House with a Pair in the hole, the 3-card board
must contain 1 of the remaining 2 cards that make the Set
and any of the remaining 72 Pairs; or the Flop itself must be
a Set. Any of the 72 Pairs may combine with either of the 2
cards that will make the Set to make the Full House, which
means that there are:
72 * 2 = 144
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plus the 48 possible Sets that can come on the Flop to make
144 + 48 = 192 possible 3-card Flops that will make a Full
House when holding a Pocket Pair.
1 * 48 = 48
75
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76
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To flop 2 Pair with a Pair in the hole, the Flop must contain
a Pair and a third card that doesn’t match the Pocket Pair or
the other cards on the board.
To find the number of Flops that will make 2 Pair with a Pair
in the pocket, multiply the number of possible Pairs (72) by
the number of remaining unseen cards that will not match
either the Pair in the hole or the Pair on the board, and that
will not be the pair on the board (50 – 2 – 2 – 2 = 44):
72 * 44 = 3,168
Suited Cards
While any 2 suited cards can make a Flush, the most valuable
suited cards are the suited connectors, and the higher the
77
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The calculation of the odds that you will pair either or both
of your two suited cards are contained in the section below
on “2 Big Cards.”
78
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Suited Connectors
(11 * 10) = 55
(1 * 2)
79
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39 * 55 = 2,145
80
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Reduce
19,435 / 165 : 165 / 165
117.8 : 1
81
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After you subtract the 2 hole cards, the 2 cards that make the
draw, and the 8 cards that would complete the Straight, there
are 40 unseen cards left.
With the possibility that the Flop will pair either a hole card
or a board card, the number of possible 3-card Flops that
WILL make an open ended Straight draw to one of the suited
connectors is
40 * 48 = 1,920
82
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4 * 64 = 256
83
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Minus the 2 hole cards and the 2 cards that make the draw
and minus the 2 cards that would complete the Straight
Flush, there are 46 unseen cards.
With the possibility that the Flop will pair either a hole card
or a board card, the number of possible 3-card Flops that
WILL make an open ended Straight Flush draw to one of the
above-mentioned suited connectors is:
3 * 46 = 138
84
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85
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For example, with J♥Q♥ in the hole these are the only 3 2-
card combinations that can come on the Flop to yield a
Royal Flush draw:
86
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Minus the 2 hole cards and the 2 cards that make the draw,
and minus the 1 card that would complete the Royal Flush,
there are 47 unseen cards.
With the possibility that the Flop will pair either a hole card
or a board card, the number of possible 3-card Flops that
WILL make a Royal Flush draw is:
3 * 47 = 141
87
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2 Big Cards
Big Cards are any 2 cards Jack or higher. If the cards are
paired then their odds of improvement are noted above. The
same holds true if the 2 cards are either connected or suited.
Below are the calculations that the Flop will pair one partic-
ular card in the hole, will pair either card in the hole, will
pair both cards in the hole, or will make a Set to either hole
card.
88
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3 * 1,081 = 3,243
89
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6 * 946 = 5,676
Odds of Flopping AA or JJ
WILLNOTs : WILLs
13,924 : 5,676
Reduce
13,924 / 5,676 : 5,676 / 5,676
2.45 : 1
90
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To find the odds of a Flop that will pair both hole cards with
AJ in the hole, we know that 2 of the 3 Flop cards must be
AJ. Find the number of possible AJ 2-card combinations
from the remaining 3 Jacks and 3 Aces:
3*3=9
Minus the 2 cards in the hole and the 6 remaining Aces and
Jacks there are 44 unseen cards, none of which are Aces or Jacks.
9 * 44 = 396
91
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(3 * 2) = 3
(1 * 2)
Minus the 2 cards in the hole and the 6 remaining Aces and
Jacks there are 44 unseen cards, none of which are Aces or Jacks.
With 6 possible Pairs and 44 unseen cards that are not either
an Ace or a Jack, the number of possible 3-card Flops that
WILL flop a not-too-hidden Set of either hole card is:
6 * 44 = 264
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Once the Flop has hit the board, you have 5 of the 7 cards
that will make your best and final hand. After the Flop and
with 2 cards to come, regardless of the hand, any player still
involved will want to know:
♦ The odds of improvement on the next card (the
Turn)
♦ The odds of improvement over the next two cards
(the Turn and the River)
♦ The odds of hitting certain Runner-Runner hands.
The tables and calculations below demonstrate these odds.
After the betting on the Flop in limit games, the stakes usu-
ally double and the cost to continue in the hand increases. As
each card is placed on the board, the likelihood of improve-
ment decreases. As each bet or raise is made or called, the
money odds get better.
93
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94
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95
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96
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With certain 5-card holdings after the Flop and with their
calculations demonstrated below, here are the odds that
these holdings will improve with the laying of the Turn card:
With one card to come, the odds calculation for the various
hands is quite straightforward and the only number that
changes is the number of outs.
After the Flop and before the Turn, counting your two hole
cards, there are 47 unseen cards.
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Whether the Pair is in the pocket or the player has paired one
of his hole cards, there are still only 2 cards that will make
the Set among the remaining 47. The odds of making a Set
from a Pair on the Turn are:
Total Possibilities = 47
– WILLs = 2
WILLNOTs = 45
Total Possibilities = 47
– WILLs = 9
WILLNOTs = 38
98
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Total Possibilities = 47
– WILLs = 8
WILLNOTs = 39
Total Possibilities = 47
– WILLs = 4
WILLNOTs = 43
99
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Total Possibilities = 47
– WILLs = 15
WILLNOTs = 32
Total Possibilities = 47
– WILLs = 10
WILLNOTs = 37
100
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Reduce
37 / 10 : 10 / 10
3.7 : 1
With a Pair and a Flush draw there are 11 cards that will
make either a Flush or a Set:
Total Possibilities = 47
– WILLs = 11
WILLNOTs = 36
There are 4 cards among the remaining 47 that will make the
Boat:
Total Possibilities = 47
– WILLs = 4
WILLNOTs = 43
101
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With a Set there is 1 card that will make Quads and 6 cards
that will make a Boat:
Total Possibilities = 47
– WILLs = 7
WILLNOTs = 40
With 2 unpaired hole cards after the Flop there are 6 cards
among the remaining unseen 47 cards that will make a Pair:
Total Possibilities = 47
– WILLs = 6
WILLNOTs = 41
102
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After the Flop and before the Turn card has been dealt there
are 47 unseen cards. When calculating the odds with 2 cards
to come, one important number is the total number of pos-
sible 2-card combinations that can be made from the
remaining unseen 47 cards — Comb(47, 2):
103
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104
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9 * 38 = 342
(9 * 8) = 36
(1 * 2)
105
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8 * 39 = 312
(8 * 7) = 28
(1 * 2)
106
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4 * 43 = 172
(4 * 3) = 6
(1 * 2)
107
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15 * 32 = 480
108
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1 100 = 54%
1.85 *
The odds of .85 : 1 and the probability of 54% are two dif-
ferent ways of saying the same thing.
10 * 37 = 370
109
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(10 * 9) = 45
(1 * 2)
11 * 36 = 396
(11 * 10) = 55
(1 * 2)
110
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4 * 43 = 172
111
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7 * 40 = 280
(7 * 6) = 21
(1 * 2)
Also among the unseen cards there are 66 possible Pairs that
will make a Full House to the Set.
112
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6 * 41 = 246
113
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WILLNOTs = 820
Runner – Runner
After the Flop and with 2 cards to come, you will need help
on both of them. No one card will do it.
The table reflects the odds and the work below demonstrates
the calculations:
With
After the Flop Runner – Runner Odds
114
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With
After the Flop Runner – Runner Odds
The Calculations
115
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2 * 9 = 18
116
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117
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Odds of a RR Straight
WILLNOTs : WILLs
1,033 : 48
Reduce
1,033 / 48 : 48 / 48
21.52 : 1
118
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Odds of a RR Straight
WILLNOTs : WILLs
1,049 : 32
Reduce
1,049 / 32 : 32 / 32
32.8 : 1
119
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Odds of a RR Straight
WILLNOTs : WILLs
1,065 : 16
Reduce
1,065 / 16 : 16 / 16
66.56 : 1
With a 3-card Flush draw there are 10 cards of the right suit
that remain among the 47 unseen cards. From those 10
suited cards there are Comb(10, 2):
120
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(10 * 9) = 45
(1 * 2)
Odds of a RR Flush
WILLNOTs : WILLs
1,036 : 45
Reduce
1,036 / 45 : 45 / 45
23 : 1
121
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6
47
3
46
6 3 = 18
47 * 46 2,162
18 = .0083
2,162
122
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Total Possibilities = 1
– WILLs = .0083
WILLNOTs = .9917
123
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Odds of a RR Straight
WILLNOTs : WILLs
1,078 : 3
Reduce
1,078 / 3 : 3 / 3
359.3 : 1
124
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With the higher cost to continue and the hand mostly made,
players should have a precise strategy in order to remain
involved.
At this juncture there are 3 ways you can win the pot:
1. Have the best hand and show it down on the River
2. Improve to the best hand on the last card and show
it down on the River
3. Make a Bet, Raise or Check-Raise now and/or on
the River that causes your opponent(s) to fold.
Knowing the likelihood that you can manipulate your oppo-
nent(s) into giving up the hand is a very important part of
knowing your Total Odds of winning the pot. This makes
knowing your opponents and their behavior an essential ele-
ment to combine with the basic mathematical odds of
improvement.
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Odds of Improvement
This table shows the odds of improving certain common
drawing hands on the last card.
The Calculations
With one card to come, the odds calculation for the various
hands is straightforward. The only number that changes is
the number of outs.
After the Turn card has hit the board there are 2 cards in
your pocket, 4 on the board and 46 unseen cards:
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Total Possibilities = 46
Total Possibilities = 46
– WILLs = 12
WILLNOTs = 34
Whether the Pair is in the pocket or the player has paired one
of his hole cards, there are still only 2 cards that will make
the Set among the remaining 46. The odds of making a Set
from a Pair on the Turn are
Total Possibilities = 46
– WILLs = 2
WILLNOTs = 44
127
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Reduce
44 / 2 : 2 / 2
22 : 1
There are 4 cards among the remaining 46 that will make the
Boat:
Total Possibilities = 46
– WILLs = 4
WILLNOTs = 42
Total Possibilities = 46
– WILLs = 1
WILLNOTs = 45
128
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There are 8 cards, 4 on each end, that will make the Straight:
Total Possibilities = 46
– WILLs = 8
WILLNOTs = 38
Total Possibilities = 46
– WILLs = 4
WILLNOTs = 42
129
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Total Possibilities = 46
– WILLs = 9
WILLNOTs = 37
Total Possibilities = 46
– WILLs = 15
WILLNOTs = 31
130
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Total Possibilities = 46
– WILLs = 10
WILLNOTs = 36
With a Pair and a Flush draw there are 11 cards that will
make either a Flush or a Set:
Total Possibilities = 46
– WILLs = 11
WILLNOTs = 35
131
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There are only 2 cards, either one of which will complete the
Straight Flush draw:
Total Possibilities = 46
– WILLs = 2
WILLNOTs = 44
Total Possibilities = 46
– WILLs = 6
WILLNOTs = 40
132
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133
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With many bets in the pot and good knowledge of your oppo-
nent(s), a bet, a raise or even a check-raise with a busted draw
can often pay as well as a completed draw.
All players get the same number of good hands. It is the rare
and often extremely successful player who can win pots with
very strong hands and very weak hands alike.
134
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135
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This table displays the odds and the probabilities that you or
any other specific player will find these starting hands in the
hole on any specific hand.
136
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137
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After the flop and with 2 cards to come, this table shows the
odds that certain hands will improve on the Turn or on the
River or on both the Turn and the River.
138
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Runner – Runner
139
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Below are the odds that these draws will improve on the River.
140
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Starting Hands
The table below shows the odds and probabilities that you or
any other specific player will find these certain starting cards
in the hole on any particular hand.
AAXX 2.5% 39 : 1
A2XX 7.2% 12.8 : 1
A2 Suited to A 2.7% 36.1 : 1
A23X 1.2% 85.3 : 1
A23X Suited to A .28% 351.5 : 1
AA2X .42% 239 : 1
AA2X Single Suited to A .21% 469 : 1
AA2X Double Suited .05% 1879 : 1
AA23 .035% 2,819.1 : 1
AA23 Single Suited .018% 5,639.1 : 1
AA23 Double Suited .0044% 22,559.4 : 1
2 Pair 2.1% 47.2 : 1
Probably Not Playable 83.3% .2 : 1
141
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142
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143
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Hand After
After The Flop River Card Odds
144
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145
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This means that in many cases, any nut hand that is possible
has a very good chance of happening. For example, in
Hold’em the odds of any player getting a pair of Aces in the
hole is 220 : 1 but in Omaha it is 39 : 1.
One pitfall of Hi-Lo is that you can have the nut Low hand and
still lose money. Consider a pot that is contested heads-up.
Each of you has invested $500 in a $1000 pot. You have the nut
Low, but your opponent has a hand that matches your Low
and beats your High. You win $250 and your opponent takes
$750. You end the hand with a $250 loss. Being “quartered” or
worse in Hi-Lo sends many naive players to the rail.
147
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148
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Starting Hands
Starting Hands
Your first chance to gain an edge over your opponents is with
your starting hands. The two keys to this edge are:
1. Play a higher quality starting hand than your
opponents
2. Play the hand better than your opponents.
The strength of a hand matters more in split games than in
non-split games. With both Low and High possibilities, calls
are more likely and moves don’t work as often.
AAXX 2.5% 39 : 1
A2XX 7.2% 12.8 : 1
149
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The Calculations
150
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Starting Hands
AA
151
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for 2 or more Aces in the hole. The calculation that will serve
you best is for exactly 2 Aces in the hole, because in Omaha
Hi-Lo, 3 or more cards of the same rank in the hole is NOT
a good thing. Omaha Hi-Lo is one of the very few places in
all of poker where a hand containing 4 hidden Aces is a huge
disappointment.
(4 * 3) = 6
(1 * 2)
The last number we need is the number of 2-card combina-
tions that contain no Aces — Comb(48, 2):
6 * 1,128 = 6,768
152
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Starting Hands
Any A2/AK
153
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4 * 4 = 16
16 * 1,225 = 19,600
154
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Starting Hands
4 * 4 = 16
12 * 38 = 456
155
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16 * 456 = 7,296
Any A23
156
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Starting Hands
16 * 196 = 3,136
157
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4 * 4 * 4 = 64
64 * 12 = 768
158
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Starting Hands
The probability of A23 with the Ace suited to the Deuce, the
Trey or the other card in the hole expressed as a percentage is
WILLs 100 = Probability as %
Total Possibilities *
The odds of A23 with the Ace suited to the Deuce, the Trey
or the other card in the hole are:
Any AA2X
159
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6 * 188 = 1,128
160
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Starting Hands
This includes the possibility that more than one of the hole
cards will be suited to either Ace.
6 * 96 = 576
161
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162
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Starting Hands
6 * 24 = 144
163
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Any AA23/AA2K
6 * 16 = 96
96 100 = .035%
270,725 *
164
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Starting Hands
6 * 8 = 48
165
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48 100 = .018%
270,725 *
166
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Starting Hands
6 * 2 = 12
12 100 = .0044%
270,725 *
2 Pair
167
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78 * 72 = 5,616
168
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Starting Hands
AAXX 6,768
A2XX 19,600
A2 Suited to A 7,104
A23X 3,136
A23X Suited to A 768
AA2X 1,128
AA2X Single Suited to A 576
AA2X Double Suited 144
AA23 96
AA23 Single Suited 48
AA23 Double Suited 12
2 Pair 5,616
Total Playable Hands 44,996
169
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170
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171
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172
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The Calculations
AA23
173
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than for almost any other hand. You will flop a nut Low draw
over 74% of the time with this hand.
To flop a nut Low draw with this hand, the Flop needs to
contain any 2-card combination that has 2 unpaired low
cards, exactly one of which may be of the same rank as any
one of the hole cards.
341 – 21 = 320
174
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Low hand (2), minus the 6 cards that will pair either of the
first 2 Flop cards (48 – 2 – 6 = 40):
320 * 40 = 12,800
There are 12,800 3-card Flops the WILL make a nut Low
draw or better:
To flop a nut Low with this hand, the Flop must contain 2
unpaired low cards that do not match any of the hole cards,
plus a third low card that may match any of the hole cards,
but may not match either of the first two cards flopped.
175
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190 – 30 = 160
While the third card may counterfeit one of the hole cards
and still produce a nut Low, it must not be a card above the
rank of 8 and it must not pair one of the other 2 board cards.
Thus there are 46 – 20 (number of cards 9 through K) — 6
(number of cards that will pair either of the board cards) =
20 possibilities for the third card. The number of 3-card
Flops that WILL make a nut Low to this hand:
160 * 20 = 3,200
176
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16 * 8 = 128
To flop Aces Full with this hand, one of the Flop cards must
be an Ace and the other 2 must be paired. Remaining unseen
are 1 pair of Aces, 3 pairs of Deuces, 3 pairs of Treys, and 60
pairs from the ten ranks 4 through K. With 2 unseen Aces, the
number of 3-card Flops that will make Aces Full is:
67 * 2 = 134
177
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To flop a nut Flush draw, the Flop need only contain 2 cards
of either of the 2 suits that match the hole cards. With 11
unseen cards of each of 2 suits, the number of possible 2-
card combinations that will flop the nut Flush draw is
Comb(11, 2) * 2:
With the caveat that there is some small overlap, we will find
the number of Flops that will fill each of these hands sepa-
rately, then add them to find the odds of making any of these
three very strong hands.
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(11 * 10 * 9) 2 = 330
(1 * 2 * 3) *
Also from the work above, we know that there are 134 Flops
that will make Aces Full.
There are 3,664 Flops that will make a nut Low, Ace High
Flush or Aces Full to this hand:
179
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To flop a nut Low draw with this hand, the Flop needs to
contain 2 unpaired cards of the ranks 3 through 8 (no card
may counterfeit either the Ace or the Deuce in the hole).
240 * 41 = 9,840
With 9,840 3-card combinations that will flop the nut Low
draw to this hand, the odds are
180
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To flop a nut Low with this hand, the board must contain 3
unpaired cards ranked 3 through 8. There are 6 ranks and
thus Comb(24, 2) 2-card combinations minus the 36 pos-
sible pairs among these ranks:
240 * 16 = 3,840
To flop Aces Full, the board must contain an Ace and any
pair. With this hand there are 66 unseen pairs ranked 3
through K, plus 1 pair of Aces and 3 pairs of Deuces = 70
possible pairs that might appear on the board. This is multi-
plied by the number of unseen Aces (2), to produce the
number of possible 3-card flops that will make Aces Full or
better to this hand:
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70 * 2 = 140
There are 3,980 + 165 = 4,145 3-card Flops that will make
an Ace High Flush, a nut Low or Aces Full to this hand. The
odds against one of these flops are:
Total Possibilities = 17,296
– WILLs = 4,145
WILLNOTs = 13,151
182
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160 * 40 = 6,400
With 6,400 3-card combinations that will flop the nut Low
draw to this hand, the odds are:
183
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To flop a nut Low with this hand the Flop needs to contain 3
unpaired cards below the rank of 9 with one and only one
that may pair the A, 2 or 3 in the hole.
160 * 21 = 3,360
With 3,360 3-card combinations that will flop the nut Low
to this hand, the odds are
184
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Reduce
13,936 / 3,360 : 3,360/ 3,360
4.1 : 1
(11 * 10 * 9) = 165
(1 * 2 * 3)
To flop a nut Low draw with this hand, the Flop must con-
tain 2 unpaired cards of the ranks 3 through 8 with no card
that counterfeits either the Ace or the Deuce in the hole.
185
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240 * 40 = 9,600
With 9,600 3-card combinations that will flop the nut Low
draw to this hand, the odds are
To flop a nut Low with this hand, the board must contain 3
unpaired cards ranked 3 through 8. There are six ranks and
thus Comb(24, 2) 2-card combinations minus the 36 pos-
sible pairs among these ranks:
186
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240 * 16 = 3,840
To flop a Wheel with this hand, the board will need to show
345.
187
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Reduce
17,232 / 64 : 64 / 64
269.3 : 1
There are 3,840 Flops that will make a nut Low to this hand.
(11 * 10 * 9) = 165
(1 * 2 * 3)
188
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Odds of Counterfeiting A or 2
WILLNOTs : WILLs
10,528 : 6,768
Reduce
10,528 / 6,768 : 6,768 / 6,768
1.6 : 1
189
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Reduce
14,096 / 3,200 : 3,200 / 3,200
4.4 : 1
To flop the Nut Low with this hand, the board must contain
2 unpaired cards ranked 4 through 8 plus one Deuce.
190
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Once the Flop has hit the board, you have 7 of the 9 cards
that will make your best and final hand for both Low and
High. Money expectation aside, as a general rule only con-
tinue to invest in the hand with the nuts or a reasonable
draw to the nuts in either direction, preferably both. If you
don’t have them, the nuts that is, there are many chances that
at least one of your opponents does.
After the betting on the Flop in limit games, the stakes usu-
ally double and the cost to continue in the hand increases. As
191
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In Omaha Hi-Lo the pot is often split, and many times will
be split among more than 2 players.
With a nut Low draw or made nut Low hand, primary con-
siderations are:
1. Whether there will be 3 low cards on the board on
the Flop or by the River
2. Whether the hand is the draw or the nuts
3. The likelihood the low will be quartered or worse
4. The chance the low will be counterfeited
5. The presence of a backup or extra low card in the
hole in case of a counterfeit on the Turn or River.
With a made nut High hand or nut High draw, consider:
192
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Odds of Improvement
Once the Flop has hit the board, you have 7 of the 9 cards
that will make your best and final hand. After the Flop and
with 2 cards to come, regardless of the hand, any player still
involved must know
♦ The odds of improvement on the next card (the
Turn)
193
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Having just one backup low card in the hole increases the
probability of turning a nut Low hand from a nut Low draw
from 35.6% to 55.6%.
With both a Low draw and a Flush draw, the player has
almost a 50-50 (47%) chance of making either the Low or
the Flush and still has another card to come. A player does
not need big money odds to make this hand very playable
after the Flop.
With certain 5-card holdings after the Flop, the odds that these
holdings will improve with the laying of the Turn card are
194
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The Calculations
With the Turn card to come, the odds calculation for the var-
ious hands is straightforward. The only number that
changes is the number of outs.
After the Flop and before the Turn, counting your 4 hole
cards, there are 45 unseen cards:
Total Possibilities = 45
Total Possibilities = 45
– WILLs = 16
195
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WILLNOTs = 29
16 100 = 35.6%
45 *
Total Possibilities = 45
– WILLs = 21
WILLNOTs = 24
196
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21 100 = 46.7%
45 *
With a Wheel draw, there are only 4 cards that will make the
Wheel:
Total Possibilities = 45
– WILLs = 4
WILLNOTs = 41
Total Possibilities = 45
– WILLs = 6
WILLNOTs = 39
197
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There are 16 cards that will complete the Low plus 9 cards
that will make the flush, minus 4 cards that are already
counted among those that will make the low, 16 + 9 – 4 = 21:
Total Possibilities = 45
– WILLs = 21
WILLNOTs = 24
There are 9 cards that will make the Flush on the Turn:
Total Possibilities = 45
– WILLs = 9
WILLNOTs = 36
198
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Total Possibilities = 45
– WILLs = 8
WILLNOTs = 37
Total Possibilities = 45
– WILLs = 4
WILLNOTs = 41
Total Possibilities = 45
– WILLs = 27
WILLNOTs = 18
199
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27 100 = 60%
45 *
There are 4 cards that will make a Full House with 2 Pair:
Total Possibilities = 45
– WILLs = 4
WILLNOTs = 41
There are 7 cards that will turn a Boat or Quads with a Set
involving a pair in the hole:
Total Possibilities = 45
– WILLs = 7
WILLNOTs = 38
200
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There are 9 cards that will pair one of the 3 board cards:
Total Possibilities = 45
– WILLs = 9
WILLNOTs = 36
201
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202
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The Calculations
After the Flop and before the Turn card has been dealt, there
are 45 unseen cards. When calculating the odds with 2 cards
to come, an important number is the total possible 2-card
combinations that can be made from the remaining unseen
45 cards — Comb(45, 2):
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the low cards in the hole. Of the 45 unseen cards there are 16
that will make the Low and 23 that can combine with one of
those 16 to make the Low without counterfeiting one of the
low cards in the hole.
204
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210 – 27 = 183
205
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(4 * 3) = 6
(1 * 2)
206
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With a Low draw there are 6 cards that can counterfeit either
or both low cards in the hole. 6 of the unseen 45 cards will
counterfeit the Low and 39 will not.
(6 * 5) = 15
(1 * 2)
207
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Odds of Counterfeiting
At Least 1 of 2 Low Cards in the Hole
WILLNOTs : WILLs
741 : 249
Reduce
741 / 249 : 249 / 249
3:1
(9 * 8) = 36
(1 * 2)
208
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With a Flush draw and a Low draw there are 16 low cards
that will complete the Low. 4 of these are of the same suit as
the draw, so there are 16 + 5 = 21 cards that will make either
the Flush or the Low. 21 of the unseen 45 cards will make the
Flush or the low and 24 will not.
209
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With a Flush draw and a Low draw, there are 12 cards that
will make the Low without making the Flush, and 9 cards
that will make the Flush without making the Low.
(8 * 7) = 28
(1 * 2)
210
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(4 * 3) = 6
(1 * 2)
211
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(4 * 3) = 6
(1 * 2)
In addition there are 8 pairs that can also make the Boat.
212
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Reduce
812 / 178 : 178 / 178
4.6 : 1
(7 * 6) = 21
(1 * 2)
213
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There are 9 cards than can pair one of the three board cards
and 36 will not.
(9 * 8) = 36
(1 * 2)
214
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Runner — Runner
The Calculations
215
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With 2 low cards in the hole and 1 usable low card on the
board, even if the board low card is paired, there are 20 cards
of 5 ranks, any unpaired 2 of which will make the runner-
runner Low. Comb(20, 2) minus the 30 pairs possible
among the cards from these 5 ranks is the number of 2-card
combinations that will make the runner-runner Low:
216
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With 2 wheel cards in the hole and 1 usable wheel card on the
board, even if the board wheel card is paired, there are 8 cards
of 2 ranks, any unpaired 2 of which will make the runner-
runner Wheel. Comb(8, 2) minus the 12 pairs possible
among the cards from these 2 ranks, is the number of 2-card
combinations that will make the runner-runner Wheel
(8 * 7) = 28
(1 * 2)
217
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(9 * 8) = 36
(1 * 2)
218
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219
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(12 * 11) = 66
(1 * 2)
220
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221
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222
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With the higher cost to continue and the hand mostly made,
players should have a precise strategy in order to remain
involved.
223
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224
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The Calculations
With one card to come, the odds calculation for the various
hands is straightforward. The only number that changes is
the number of outs.
After the Turn card has hit the board, there are 4 cards in the
hole, 4 on the board and 44 unseen cards.
Total Possibilities = 44
With a Low draw there are 16 cards from 4 ranks that can
come on the River to make the Low:
Total Possibilities = 44
– WILLs = 16
WILLNOTs = 28
16 100 = 36%
44 *
225
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With a Low draw and a backup low card in the hole, there are
21 cards that can come on the River to make the Low:
Total Possibilities = 44
– WILLs = 21
WILLNOTs = 23
21 100 = 48%
44 *
With a Low draw and a Flush draw, there are 21 cards that
can come on the River to make the Flush or the Low:
Total Possibilities = 44
– WILLs = 21
WILLNOTs = 23
226
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Reduce
23 / 21 : 21 / 21
1.1 : 1
With 2 pair there are only 4 cards that can come on the River
to make the Full House:
Total Possibilities = 44
– WILLs = 4
WILLNOTs = 40
With an open ended Straight draw there are 8 cards that can
come on the River to make the Straight:
Total Possibilities = 44
– WILLs = 8
WILLNOTs = 36
227
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With a gut-shot Straight draw there are only 4 cards that can
come on the River to make the Straight:
Total Possibilities = 44
– WILLs = 4
WILLNOTs = 40
With a Flush draw there are 9 cards that can come on the
River to make the Flush:
Total Possibilities = 44
– WILLs = 9
WILLNOTs = 35
228
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Total Possibilities = 44
– WILLs = 15
WILLNOTs = 29
With a Pair and a Flush draw there are 11 cards that can
come on the River to make the Flush or a Set on the River:
Total Possibilities = 44
– WILLs = 11
WILLNOTs = 33
229
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Total Possibilities = 44
– WILLs = 2
WILLNOTs = 42
With 4 unpaired hole cards there are 12 cards that will pair
one of them on the River:
Total Possibilities = 44
– WILLs = 12
WILLNOTs = 32
230
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Before The
the Last
RiverCard
Bet
231
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