1 In a game five dice are rolled together.

1 5
(i) What is the probability that : P (1) = 6 = p ; P (Not 1) = 6 = q
(a) all five show 1
1 5 1
P (All 1) = 55C p5 q0 = 1 x 6 5 x 6 0 = 7776 = 0.000129
(b) exactly three show 1
1 5 250
P (3 ~1) = 53C p3 q2 = 10 x 6 3 x 6 2 = 7776 = 0.0322
(c) none of them shows 1 ?
1 5 250
P (None of the 1) = 50C p0 q5 = 1 x 6 0 x 6 5 = 7776 = 0.402

(ii) What is the most likely number of times for 6 to show ?

1 5 3125
P (0) = 50C p0 q5 = 1 x 6 0 x 6 5 = 7776 = 0.402
11 54 3125
P (1) = 51C p1 q4 = 5 x x = = 0.402
6 6 7776
12 53 1250
P (2) = 52C p2 q3 = 10 x 6 x 6 = 7776 = 0.161
13 52 250
P (3) = 53C p3 q2 = 10 x x = = 0.0322
6 6 7776
14 51 25
P (4) = 54C p4 q1 = 5 x 6 x 6 = 7776 = 0.00322
1 5 1
P (5) = 55C p5 q0 = 1 x 6 5 x 6 0 = 7776 = 0.000129
0 and 1 are equally likely

2 A certain type of sweet comes in eight colours : red, orange, yellow, green, blue, purple, pink and brown and these
normally occur in equal proportions. Veronica’s mother gives each of her children 16 of the sweets. Veronica says
that the blue ones are much nicer than the rest and is very upset when she receives less than her fair share of
𝟏
them.  P (Each Colour) = 𝟖

1
(i) How many blue sweets did Veronica expect to get ? E = np = 16 x 8 = 2
(ii) What was the probability that she would receive fewer blue ones than she expected ?
= P (0) + P (1)  FEWER
= 160C p0 q16 + 161C p1 q15
1 7 1 7
= 1 x 8 0 x 8 16 + 16 x 8 1 x 8 15
= 0.388
(iii) What was the probability that she would receive more blue ones than she expected ?
= 1 – 0.388 – P(2)
= 0.612 – 162C p2 q14
= 0.612 – 0.289
= 0.323

3 Find the :

(i) mean
(ii) variance of the following binomial distributions.
(a) X ~ B(10, 0.25) : n = 10 ; p = 0.25 ; q = 0.75 
mean = np = 10 x 0.25 = 2.5 ; variance = npq = 10 x 0.25 x 0.75 = 1.875
(b) X ~ B(10, 0.50) : n = 10 ; p = 0.50 ; q = 0.50 
mean = np = 10 x 0.50 = 5.0 ; variance = npq = 10 x 0.50 x 0.50 = 2.5
(c) X ~ B(10, 0.75) : n = 10 ; p = 0.75 ; q = 0.25 
mean = np = 10 x 0.75 = 7.5 ; variance = npq = 10 x 0.75 x 0.25 = 1.875
4 In a particular area 30% of men and 20% of women are overweight and there are four men and three women
working in an office there.

Find the probability that there are : P (Men Overweight) = p = 0.3 ; q = 0.7 ; n = 4

(i) 0 = 40C p0 q4 = 1 x 0.30 x 0.74 = 0.240

(ii) 1 = 41C p1 q3 = 4 x 0.31 x 0.73 = 0.412
(iii) 2 = 42C p2 q2 = 6 x 0.32 x 0.72 = 0.265

P (Women Overweight) = p = 0.2 ; q = 0.8 ; n = 3

(iv) 0 = 30C p0 q3 = 1 x 0.20 x 0.83 = 0.512
(V) 1 = 31C p1 q2 = 3 x 0.21 x 0.82 = 0.384
(vi) 2 = 32C p2 q1 = 3 x 0.22 x 0.81 = 0.096

(vii) exactly 2 overweight people in the office. What assumption have you made in answering this question ?
= P (2M 0W) + P (1M 1W) + P (0M 2W)
= 0.265 x 0.512 + 0.412 x 0.384 + 0.240 x 0.096
= 0.317

5 On her drive to work Stella has to go through four sets of traffic lights. She estimates that for each set the
2 1
probability of her finding them red is 3 and green 3 . (She ignores the possibility of them being amber.) Stella also
estimates that when a set of lights is red she is delayed by one minute.
2 1
(i) Find the probability of : P(red) = 3 ; P(green) = 3 ; n = 4
20 14 1
(a) 0 = 40C R0 G4 = 1 x x =
3 3 81
21 13 8
(b) 1 = 41C R1 G3 = 4 x 3 x 3 = 81
2 1 24
(c) 2 = 42C R2 G2 = 6 x 3 2 x 3 2 = 81
2 1 32
(d) 3 = 43C R3 G1 = 4 x 3 3 x 3 1 = 81
sets of lights being against her.

(ii) Find the expected extra journey time due to waiting at lights.
1 8 24 32 16
=0x +1x +2x +3x +4x
81 81 81 81 81
216
= = 2 menit 40 detik
81

6 Pepper moths are found in two varieties, light and dark. The proportion of dark moths increases with certain types
of atmospheric pollution. At the time of the question 30% of the moths in a particular town are dark. A research
student sets a moth trap and catches nine moths, four light and five dark. P(Dark) = 0.3 ; P (Light) = 0.7 ; n = 9

(i) What is the probability of that result for a sample of nine moths ?
= 49C D5 L4
= 126 x 0.35 x 0.74
= 0.0735
(ii) Find the mean and variance of dark moths in samples of nine moths.
Mean = np = 9 x 0.3 = 2.7
Variance = npq = 9 x 0.3 x 0.7 = 1.89

The next night the student’s trap catches ten pepper moths.
(iii) What is the expected number of dark moths in this sample ? E = np = 10 x 0.3 = 3
(iv) Find the probability that the actual number of dark moths in the sample is the same as the expected number.
= 103C D3 L7 = 120 x 0.33 x 0.77 = 0.267
7 (i) State three conditions which must be satisfied for a situation to be modelled by a binomial distribution.
George wants to invest some of his monthly salary. He invests a certain amount of this every month for 18
months. For each month there is a probability of 0.25 that he will buy shares in a large company, a probability
of 0.15 that he will buy shares in a small company and a probability of 0.6 that he will invest in a savings
account.

constant/given p, independent trials, fixed/given number of trials, only two outcomes

P (Share Large Comp) = 0.25 ; P (Share Small Comp) = 0.15 ; P (Invest SA) = 0.6 ; n = 18 months

(ii) Find the probability that George will buy shares in a small company in at least 3 of these 18 months.

= 1 – P (0) – P (1) – P(2)

= 1 – 180C S0 NS18 – 181C S1 NS17 – 182C S2 NS16

= 1 – 1 x 0.150 x 0.8518 – 18 x 0.151 x 0.8517 – 153 x 0.152 x 0.8516

= 1 – 0.0536 – 0.170 – 0.256

= 0.520

8 Biscuits are sold in packets of 18. There is a constant probability that any biscuit is broken, independently of other
biscuits. The mean number of broken biscuits in a packet has been found to be 2.7. Find the probability that a
packet contains between 2 and 4 (inclusive) broken biscuits.

n = 18 ; mean = np = 2.7

P (Broken) = 2.7 / 18 = 0.15

P (Good) = 1 – 0.15 = 0.85

P(2 – 4) = 182C B2 G16 + 183C B3 G15 + 184C B4 G14

= 153 x 0.152 x 0.8516 + 816 x 0.153 x 0.8515 + 3060 x 0.154 x 0.8514

= 0.256 + 0.241 + 0.159

= 0.656

9 In a certain mountainous region in winter, the probability of more than 20 cm of snow falling on any particular day
is 0.21.

P (> 20 cm) = 0.21 = p ; P (≤ 20 cm) = 0.79 = q

(i) Find the probability that, in any 7 – day period in winter, fewer than 5 days have more than 20 cm of snow
falling.
P (< 5day) = 1 – P (5) – P (6) – P (7)
= 1 – 75C p5 q2 – 76C p6 q1 – 77C p7 q0
= 1 – 21 x 0.215 x 0.792 – 7 x 0.216 x 0.791 – 1 x 0.217 x 0.790
= 1 – 0.00535 – 0.000474 – 0.0000180
= 0.994
(ii) For 4 randomly chosen 7 – day periods in winter, find the probability that exactly 3 of these periods will have
at least 1 day with more than 20 cm of snow falling.
P (at least 1) = 1 – P (0) = 1 – 70C p0 q7 = 1 – 1 x 0.210 x 0.797 = 0.808
P (Exactly 3Weeks) = 43C (0.808)3 (0.192)1 = 4 x 0.8083 x 0.192 = 0.405
10 A box contains 300 discs of different colours. There are 100 pink discs, 100 blue discs and 100 orange discs. The
discs of each colour are numbered from 0 to 99. Five discs are selected at random, one at a time, with replacement.
Find :

(i) the probability that no orange discs are selected

2 32
P (No Orange) = 3 5 = 243 = 0.132
(ii) the probability that exactly 2 discs with numbers ending in a 6 are selected
1
P (end in 6) = 10  6 , 16 , 26 , 36 , 46 , 56 , 66 , 76 , 86 , 96 = 10 / 100 each colour
1 9 729
P (2 Discs end in 6) = 52C (10 )2 (10 )3 = 10 x 100000 = 0.0729
(iii) the probability that exactly 2 orange discs with numbers ending in a 6 are selected
1 1
P (Disc Orange end in 6) = 10 / 3 = 30
1 29 24389
P (2 Discs Orange end in 6) = 52C (30 )2 (30 )3 = 10 x 2430000 0 = 0.0100
(iv) the mean and variance of the number of pink discs selected.
1 2
n = 5 ; p (pink) = 3 ; q = 3
1 𝟓
Mean = np = 5 x =
3 𝟑
1 2 𝟏𝟎
Variance – npq = 5 x 3 x 3 = 𝟗

11 The mean number of defective batteries in packs of 20 is 1.6. Use a binomial distribution to calculate the
probability that a randomly chosen pack of 20 will have more than 2 defective batteries
Mean = np = 1.6
n = 20
p = 1.6 / 20 = 0.08
q = 1 – 0.08 = 0.92
P (more than 2) = 1 – P(2) – P(1) – P(0)
= 1 – 202C p2 q18 – 201C p1 q19 – 200C p0 q20
= 1 – 190 x 0.082 x 0.9218 – 20 x 0.081 x 0.9219 – 1x 0.080 x 0.9220
= 1 – 0.271 – 0.328 – 0.189
= 0.212