2022 Semester 1 CAT 2: Population Policies

and Wellbeing

The Aging Population of Poland

By Vidu P (9D)

1. Location
a)

b) Situated in Central Europe, Poland is the 9th largest Eastern/cetral European country, at 312,685
km2. Historically, it has formed the geographic crossroads between the vast forests of North-western
European countries and the narrow straits of the Atlantic Ocean. Poland borders a number of
countries, such as Russia, Lithuania, Belarus, and Ukraine, as well as the Baltic Sea to the north. In
relation to Australia, Poland is 7,379,315 km2 smaller, with a distance of 13, 815 km between the 2
countries.
2) Throughout history, Poland can be considered the most politically unstable country in the world. In
the 16th century, Poland was part of the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth, a kingdom spanning
almost a million square kilometres, and was one of the largest and most powerful countries in the
world at the time. However, nowadays, Poland is less than a third of its former size, although in
numerous ways, significantly more advanced, albeit lacking against other European countries. In
comparison with Australia, which has a GDP per capita of 51, 812 USD, Poland only has 15,656 USD
in GDP as of 2020. Meanwhile, Australia ranks 8th on the HDI index, at 0.944, while Poland is not too
far behind, at 0.880. Both countries are therefore classified as very highly developed. Consequently,
Poland and Australia are both in Stage 4 of the demographic transition model, with generally little
change in population and an aging generation of the working class.
3,4,5) Poland Age Pyramids:

Note: The above graphs were left without annotations due to a reduction in quality in any program
used.
The above graphs demonstrate a certain shift in age group dominance of the population of Poland. In
1990, the percentage of children under 18 over the entire population was 32.6%, with kids between 5
and 9 years of age forming the highest contribution. Meanwhile, in 2020, this figure has dropped to
almost half of its former self, at only 19.8%. While people over 24 years of age were most of the
population in 1990, this has shifted upwards. Instead, majority of the population lies in the late 30s
and early 60s, where noticeable bulges can be seen in the Poland 2020 graph.
Since 1800, Poland’s demographics in terms of birth rate have seen dramatic changes and trends. For
example, the period between 1815 and 1948 saw rapid increases and decreases in the birth rate, with
basically no consistency. While this is true for most of Poland’s history, the years before 1815 were
generally stable, albeit having a high birth rate of 43.6 per 1000 people. Eventually, in the mid-20 th
century, the birth rate fluctuated at a consistent speed, dropping significantly after every 20 years.
This will eventually culminate into a relatively smooth trend line.

Compared to Poland’s Crude Birth Rate between 1960 and 2020, the Crude Death Rate is noticeably
similar. The period between 1960 and 2019 saw steady increase and decrease in the number of deaths
per 1000 of the population, with minor ‘hiccups’ of 1 death or less dotted throughout. While this
continues for the first half of the graph, the second half begins to see some consistency, with less
jumps in death rate. However, in 2020, Poland’s death rate saw the greatest increase in a single year,
at 12.6 average deaths.
Since the beginning of the 20th century, Poland’s demographics in its total population have seen
numerous interesting trends. Until 1905, the country’s population stayed below 26 million, with slow
gradual growth. However, in 1906, the population suddenly grew to 29 million, before falling just as
fast. The period between 1920 and 1938 saw steady, substantial growth, although it stopped in 1939.
What came after is unrecorded, but it is believed that the population fell from 35 million people to
only 24 million in 1946. Despite this, Poland’s population experienced much the same growth as
before, although it slowed down approaching the 1990s. From there, the total population began to
gradually fall.

Compared to the population of Poland, the Life Expectancy is considerably more consistent and
smooth, although similar in some areas. Since 1800, most people lived to only 38, but this began to
change in 1900. The Life Expectancy gradually increased, with only one decrease in 1918, and
reached 53.8 at its peak in 1938. However, in a matter of 6 years, the polish citizen’s expected age of
death plummeted down to 15.4, reaching an all time low for the country. Fortunately, in the years
after this event, the Life Expectancy recovered the figures it had lost and continued to increase, albeit
slightly less as consistent, shown by the graph above. Today, the estimated Life expectancy is 81.5
years of age.

This graph depicts the preference of either immigration or emigration to polish citizens based on their
ages. From the data, it can be seen that most of the group of children under the age of 9 are favourable
of moving into other non-native countries rather than leaving Poland itself. However, this begins to
vary as the age groups get older. From the ages of 15 to 44, there is a noticeable inclination towards
emigration from Poland instead of immigration. There are also more people in this category who were
interviewed than other areas of the graph. The age group between 45 and 64 is quite small, but the
people who were interviewed were generally balanced in their opinions against each other.
Meanwhile, the elderly, as in those above 65 years of age, were more supportive of moving to another
country, although there is not a large difference between them and the group who preferred moving
from away from Poland.
In the second decade of the 21st century, funds in health care have risen substantially compared to the
rest of Poland’s history. The graph ‘Growth in health care spending in Poland from 2014 to 2020’
provides the estimated figures based on the planned amount of spending against the actual amount
spent. Immediately, since the end of 2014, the execution of healthcare spending has risen substantially
above the initial plan. The difference between the 2 statistics has also increased. In 2020 alone, an
extra 8.5 billion dollars was required to fund the health sector. Following 2014, a total of 30.4 billion
dollars have been added to the Plan under the Act, while 43.4 billion dollars have been required in
execution. Despite all this extra funding, 62% of the Polish populace are dissatisfied with the health
care in Poland 2020, as shown by ‘Satisfaction with the health care system in Poland in 2020’.
6. As demonstrated by the graphs, Poland has begun to develop an aging population in the recent
decades, where . Surrounded by neighbours who are facing similar problems, the central European
country has gone through numerous changes in an effort to survive in a rapidly changing world. To
understand the methods implemented by the Polish government to curb the aging of their workforce in
the 21st century, one must look back into their tumultuous, genocidal history.
Until the end of World War 1, the Poland as we know it today was originally recognized as the
Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, an enormous kingdom spanning over 1 million square kilometres
with countless groups of multiethnic minorities. While the kingdom accepted multiple cultures and
usually treated each of them with tolerance and respect, Ukrainian protests for their right as an
independent nation began to wane the influence over the area in the 18 th century. After the Russian
Empire recognized the Ukrainian presence, they proceeded to annex the southern Commonwealth
lands, with little resistance from the Polish-Lithuanians. This was due to the ongoing rebellion of the
Bar Confederation, a group of nobles who opposed the increasing Russian influence by the Russian-
backed Polish-Lithuanian King Stanislaw. Following this civil war and a conflict between Poland and
the Russian Empire, the decision was made by the Prussian Empire, Austrian Habsburg Monarchy
and the Russian Empire to partition the Polish-Lithuanian lands in the pretext that they were ‘saving’
the country’s inhabitants. Eventually, 3 partitions would be made, effectively and literally partitioning
the Commonwealth out of existence until Poland’s independence in 1918.

Figure 1: Timeline of the Partitioning of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth

The fact that the Polish people lost their identity for over 120 years only spurred patriotism.
Following a rapid rise in the population to 31 million in 1910 after Polish communities were relocated
into Russian territory, the European superpowers at the time headed into the First World War, causing
the population to fall to 26 million once again (as demonstrated by the graph Population of Poland).
During this period of conflict, the Polish identity was revitalised under organized armies, leading to
the recognition of Poland as an independent country in 1918 by the Russian Empire. After this event,
the birth rate surged with the population, despite the former declining in the next 2 decades. Until
1939, Poland’s total population would reach 35 million, a staggering amount considering its
reunification only years prior.
While the Polish were living as a nation for the first time in over a century, a sudden invasion by Nazi
Germany on 1st September 1939 brought an end to the relative peace in Europe. Claiming that Poland
was persecuting the German minorities in the remnants of Prussia, Germany quickly overtook
majority of the land, although taking substantial losses. Soon after, the Soviet Union joined in on the
invasion from the east, resulting in Poland’s surrender on the 27 th September and the government’s
ousting from the country. As agreed in the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact earlier, Poland was partitioned
and divided yet again between the 2 invaders, although Germany would come to control both areas in
its invasion of the Soviet Union.
Nazi Germany’s occupation in Poland, also known as the Holocaust, was a period of horrific and
catastrophic war crimes committed against the Polish population, especially the Jews. Numerous
concentration camps were established in Poland with the aim of exterminating those the Germans saw
themselves as superior to or unfit. The Auschwitz-Birkenau death camp was the most infamous
concentration camp, with more than 1.1 million confirmed deaths of men, women and children alone.
Other war crimes perpetrated by the German Army and SS against the Polish population included
mass rape, mistreatments of prisoners, forced labour, civilian murders, and human experiments,
amidst innumerable more charges. During this time, the life expectancy dropped to just 15 years of
age.
By the end of the war, 6 million poles were dead; almost all of the 3 million Jews living in Poland
were exterminated, with another 3 million Polish citizens losing their lives.
The effects of World War 2 on Poland were so consequential that entire generations of people were
wiped out, with more than one fifth of the total population lost. The material loss was immense;
Warsaw appeared more as rubble than a thriving city, while the human loss was insurmountable.
According to Population of Poland, the population dropped from 35 million to 24 million, although
strangely, the birth rate rose. While this may have been an attempt of starting life anew in Poland
despite the tragedies the people had faced, it did not stay for long; the USSR claimed the war-torn
country as a puppet state, and the polish people, were, yet again, stripped of their independence.

Figure 2: An Aerial view of Warsaw after WW2

While the Soviet influence in the renamed Polish People’s Republic was drastically better than in
World War 2, there were many problems that plagued the country. Mass arrests from the Secret
Service were made against those who opposed or were believed to have been against communism,
and were either killed or deported to Siberia. Furthermore, when the USA announced its Marshall
Plan, Poland, under pressure from Moscow, was forced to refuse the economic aid. There were also
500,000 Soviet troops stationed in the country, serving as a present threat if Poland ever decided to
shift towards capitalist ideals. While these policies were highly prominent during Stalin’s rule, they
began to change after his death.
As a part of the de-Stalinisation program and the low liveability standards, many authoritarian rules
were lifted in an effort to give more rights to the people. Władysław Gomułka, the Prime Minister at
the time, promised an end to police brutality, centralisation of goods, and the promotion of religion
and education. However, certain policies were still in effect; freedom of religion and criticism of the
government were strictly forbidden. Gomułka also failed to build up on the second wave of reforms
during the second de-Stalinisation program. Soon after, Gomułka’s government began to turn back on
their promises and crack down on the current freedoms the people had, which enraged them.
On the 12th December 1970, Poland began falling into an economic crisis, as did most other East
Soviet Bloc states at the time. In response, the Gomułka government raised prices to a consumer level,
but due to inflation, the working class could not afford to buy them. As a result, protests erupted all
around the country, with violent clashes with the police often taking place. What came of these
conflicts was the rise of a new, relatively genuine government lead by Edward Geriek, as well as the
establishment of worker’s unions to allow some form of public say in matters. Despite this obvious
advancement towards independence, Poland was still a satellite state of the USSR, and was beginning
to rise in death rate without access to important health care that was always denied. However, this
began to change when Mikhail Gorbachev, the Soviet leader at the time, permitted the introduction of
non-communist parties into politics in an effort to promote more freedom for the people. The leading
union in Poland, Solidarity, began negotiating with the Polish government to form their own party in
the upcoming elections. As they promised freedom from the authoritarian rule of the USSR, Solidarity
easily won the vote, achieving independence for Poland and becoming the first Soviet satellite state to
do so.

Figure 3: Protests for Solidarity, Poland 1989

At this point in time, the population of Poland was at 37.9 million, although growth was rapidly
slowing down. As the generation during Soviet Rule were barred from leaving their country, the
arrival of independence and democracy convinced a large amount of Polish to move overseas to more
financially stable countries such as the UK, Germany and France, with more than 3 million settled as
of 2022. Unfortunately, this was the majority of the young and the working class, who sought better
conditions than the ones they had faced for decades, which left Poland with a shortage of suitable
workers. Meanwhile, with access to advanced health care, Poland’s life expectancy increased to over
80, with little need for families to bear over 3 children, as they did under communism. As of 2020, the
birth rate has fallen to 1.32, which is well below the Replacement rate of 2. As a result, the death rate
fell below 10 at a substantially more consistent rate than before. In 1990, most of Poland’s age group
were under 18 or approaching middle age, whereas in 2020, the highest concentration of people were
now in their 40s or 60s, forming 15.4% of the total population of 37.8 million. It was these factors,
once combined, that lead to Poland developing a quickly ageing population.
In contrast to Poland’s severely unstable history, the government finally found themselves in relative
peace, and had the power to instate policies to curb the rapid ageing, although they had to acquire the
approval of the public. After examining the Madrid Plan of Action in Spain, where focus was shifted
towards development of older people, increased health and health care into old age, and creating
efficient, supportive environments, the Polish government decided to follow a similar plan. In 2014,
Poland introduced the Old age, Invalidity and Survivors Act, which aimed to readjust retirement ages
and funding towards healthcare. They believed that by providing better healthcare, people will be
motivated to work for longer and bring awareness into the aging population. Politicians in Poland
have also promised more health security and a return of the elderly to the labour market, as well as
incentives for them to stay in it despite illnesses. In 2008, policies increasing financial support for
families and longer maternity leaves persuaded many people to have children, but support died down
after the amount funded was not enough, considering the economic crisis at the time. Later, in 2012,
the retirement age was increased to 67, but was scrapped after future pensioners protested against it.
This change meant that the country’s labour force in the future would shrink more than ever before.
Meanwhile, the funding that has gone into healthcare has increased far beyond what was laid down in
the Act. In 2014, execution was below the planned amount, but in every year that followed, it
surpassed it in billions. The increase in funding between 2020 and 2014 was estimated at 44 billion
zloty, or 14.4 billion Aud. Despite the extra financial support, a survey of satisfaction with the health
care system was undertaken in Poland, depicting that 62% of Poles were unsatisfied with it.
Furthermore, during the Covid Pandemic since 2020, the death rate has risen to almost 12.7, despite
increased funding. Combined with the current working class’s favour of emigrating/immigrating from
Poland and the authoritarian rule of PiS, the leading right-wing party, it is unclear whether Poland will
ever solve its aging crisis.
Figure 4: The Demographics of Poland in the 21st century strongly hint towards a highly concentrated aging population in
the future.

7. Poland in the 21st century, after taking notice of its aging population problem, has introduced
several policies aimed at relieving financial stress and the funding of healthcare. The most notable of
these is the Old age, Invalidity and Survivors Act issued in 2014. Based off the Madrid Plan in 2002,
this focused on improving the healthcare, raising the retirement age, and persuading more people to
join the labour market. However, on the grounds of these policies, there has been little to no
significant increase in the younger population, and current estimates paint a darkening image of the
future. Therefore, I would say that Poland’s attempts at combating the aging population crisis are
simply not enough.
In recent years, Poland’s politics have been dominated by a right wing political party known as PiS, or
Law and Justice. Established in 2000 in fear of the extreme progressive groups that came with
Solidarity, PiS was initially unpopular with the masses, due to its conservative ideology in a time of
advancement. However, ever since Poland was accepted into the European Union in 2004, PiS has
gained popular vote, especially in Southern Poland, where the traditional rural population agrees with
its conservative ideas. Many of the rural folks are also grateful towards PiS for its 500+ program, a
series of financial payouts to poorer families who missed out on the economic boom in the early 21 st
century. As more and more people living in rural areas joined its cause, PiS won the 2005 elections,
2015 election, and the 2019 elections, followed by 2020 as well.

Figure 5: PiS, or Law and Peace, the leading party of Poland

While PiS is inherently conservative, I feel it has failed to recognize the significance of Poland’s
aging population. After raising the retirement age, some pensioners called for a reduction in it, and
despite the knowledge that it was detrimental towards reducing the effects of the ageing population,
the government agreed and set it down. Following that, the expenditure on health care, which reached
116.3 billion zloty in 2020, was met by dissatisfaction by almost 62% of the participants in a recent
poll. To me, this means that while more and more money is thrown at health care, the health problems
troubling the population are still not being cared for. Instead, I believe a far more efficient alternative
towards increasing the population growth with an ageing population would be to provide a better
pensioner system to increase the retirement age. It is obvious that PiS raised it without giving any
incentive for the people to work longer, resulting in them having to turn back on their decision.
Another potential solution is to increase the liveability standards in Poland so people are motivated to
stay, although that would be a long-term pursuit and require immense amounts of funding. Therefore,
I think the best option would be attend to the needs of the young Ukrainian populace currently
residing in the country. Following the Russian Invasion of Ukraine early this year, approximately 3.5
million people have fled to Poland, mainly consisting of women and the youth. As these people
cannot return to their own country, many have opted to settle in Poland permanently, which has
caused a revival in population growth and general activity. Therefore, while Poland is facing the
looming threat of an aging population, the arrival of young families in the country during these times
of conflict may just be enough to assure the people that their future may still be youthful and bustling
at heart.

Figure 6: Poland and Ukraine: In Unwavering Solidarity They Stand

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