Ministry of Earth Sciences

STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE (SOP)

Air Quality Monitoring and Forecasting Services
(Air Quality Early Warning System)

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

Ministry of Earth Sciences
Government of India
2021
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE (SOP)

Air Quality Monitoring

and
Forecasting Services

(Air Quality Early Warning System)

ENVIRONMENT MONITORING AND RESEARCH CENTRE,

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, NEW DELHI
2021
 PREFACE
India Meteorological Department (IMD) is perhaps the first institution in India to start
systematic long term environment monitoring of atmospheric aerosol properties, ozone and
precipitation chemistry. The technical coordination and overseeing of the functions of the
operational air quality forecasting services in India has been entrusted to Environment
Monitoring and Research Center (EMRC), a division of IMD. EMRC conducts monitoring and
research related to atmospheric constituents that are capable of forcing change in the
climate of the Earth, and may cause depletion of the global ozone layer, and play key roles
in air quality from local to global scales. EMRC also provides specific services to Ministry of
Environment and Forest & Climate Change and other Government Agencies in the
assessment of air pollution impacts. IMD contributes in the field of atmospheric
environment to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Atmosphere Watch
(GAW) programme. The main objective of GAW is to provide data and other information on
the chemical composition and related physical characteristics of the atmosphere and their
trends, required to improve understanding of the behavior of the atmosphere and its
interactions with the oceans and the biosphere.
India Meteorological Department in collaboration with Indian Institute of Tropical
Meteorology (IITM) and National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting
(NCMRWF) has implemented Air Quality Early Warning System to predict extreme air
pollution events and give alerts to take necessary steps as per Graded Response Action Plan
of the Government of India. The high-level objective of this system is to enable and provide
air quality forecasting and information services in a globally harmonized and standardized
way tailored to the needs of society and policy makers. The warning system consists of (1)
near real-time observations of air quality and visibility and details about natural aerosols like
dust, biomass fire information, satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) and PBL height, (2)
Predictions of air pollutants based on state-of-the-science atmospheric chemistry transport
models, (3) Warning Messages, Alerts and Bulletins issued by IMD and (4) forecast of the
contribution of non-local fire emissions to the air quality in Delhi and other cities.
The warning system also provides an air quality forecast for several non-attainment cities.
IMD has operationalized two air quality forecast models (1) System for Integrated modelLing
of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) for India (2) ENvironmental information FUsion
SERvice (ENFUSER) a very high resolution City Scale air quality model for Delhi. The
operational modelling system provides both real-time and forecasted, high resolution
information on the urban air quality.
The role of air quality forecasts is growing as an Air Quality Management tool. In order to
meet demands of operational forecasters and officials working in field of air quality
management, the first edition of Standard Operational Procedure (SOP) on air quality
monitoring and forecast services is being released. The topics of this SOP are restricted to
procedural aspects of air quality forecast services. It is hoped that the information contained
in SOP will be very useful to the officials working in operational field.
Dr. M. Mohapatra
Director General of Meteorology
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The entire work of the publication has been made by a group of officers and other members
associated with Environment Monitoring and Research Center of IMD. I am thankful to the
authors for their tireless effort towards formulation of the document—Standard operational
procedure of air quality monitoring and forecast services. I would like to place on record the
significant contributions and guidance made by Dr V. K. Soni, Scientist-F & Head, EMRC as
Chairman of the committee towards preparation, compilation and edition of the
publication. I express my sincere thanks to Dr Siddhartha Singh, Scientist-E and Mr Sanjay
Bist, Scientist-E & Member Secretary for their significant contribution as resource persons in
preparation of the SOP. I express my appreciation to Dr Chinmay Jena, Scientist-C and Dr
Anikender Kumar, Scientist-C for editing the SOP. I am also thankful to Dr D. R. Pattanaik,
Scientist-F and Dr Anand Das, Scientist-E, NWP for contributing and reviewing the SOP.

Dr. M. Mohapatra
Director General of Meteorology
LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS

1. Dr. Vijay Kumar Soni, Scientist-F & Head, EMRC

2. Dr Anand Kumar Das, Scientist-E, NWP
3. Dr Siddhartha Singh, Scientist-E, EMRC
4. Mr. Sanjay Bist, Scientist-E, EMRC
5. Dr. Chinmay Jena, Scientist-C, EMRC
6. Dr Anikender Kumar, Scientist-C, EMRC
Table of Content

S. No. Content Page No.

1. Introduction 1

2. Ambient Air Pollutants and their Concentration Measurement 1

3. Air Quality Index 3

4. Air Quality Monitoring 5

5. Relation between weather and pollutant concentration 8

6. Air Quality Early Warning System 10

7. Preparation of Daily Air Quality and Weather Bulletin 24

8. References

9. Annexure 26
1. Introduction
Air Quality Forecasts, if they are reliable and sufficiently accurate, can play an important
role as part of an air quality management system The air quality (AQ) Forecast lets the public
know expected air quality conditions for next 72 hours so that Government authorities can
take action to manage the air quality and issue health advisories. Local air quality affects how
you live and breathe. Like the weather, it can change from day to day or even hour to hour.
The Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) ensures that air pollution control actions are
taken in Delhi-National Capital Region (NCR) based on the different air quality index
categories namely, Moderate & Poor, Very Poor, and Severe as per National Air Quality
Index. A new category of “Severe+ or Emergency” has also been added. The details of
GRAP can be found at http://cpcbenvis.nic.in/pdf/final_graded_table.pdf. The meeting of
task force is convened by CPCB periodically and more frequently during Severe and Severe+
AQI category. The task force, which includes officials from the different pollution control
boards and experts, discusses the current air quality, the prediction ahead and the need for
more proactive measures. The Air Quality forecast is highly important so that pollution
control authorities can initiate action in advance. Head, EMRC attends the meeting as a
representative of Director General of Meteorology. Generally, the meeting starts with the
inputs presented by Head, EMRC and the discussion on weather and air quality prediction is
considered of very high importance.
The Air Quality Early Warning System (AQ-EWS) has been developed under the aegis of
Ministry of Earth Sciences, jointly by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune,
India Meteorological Department, and National Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasting (NCMRWF). The System is designed to predict air pollution events and give
alerts to take necessary steps for air pollution control. India Meteorological Department has
been entrusted with issuing Air Quality and Weather Forecast Bulletin and operationally run
the AQ model SILAM for this purpose.

2. Ambient Air Pollutants and their Concentration Measurement

Under the provisions of the Air (Prevention & Control of Pollution) Act, 1981, the CPCB
has notified fourth version of National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) in 2009.
The national standard aims to provide uniform air quality criteria for all, irrespective of land
use pattern, across the country.

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 Table-2.1: National Ambient Air Quality Standards and Measurement Methods

(1) Pollutant Time Concentration in Ambient Air Methods of Measurement

Weighted
Industrial, Ecologically
Average Residential, Sensitive
Rural and Area
other Areas
1. Sulphur Dioxide (SO2), Annual * 50 20 -Improved West and Gaeke
µg/m3 24 Hours ** 80 80 Method
-Ultraviolet Fluorescence
2. Nitrogendioxide (NO2), Annual * 40 30 -Jacob &Hochheiser modified
µg/m3 24 Hours ** 80 80 (NaOH-NaAsO2) Method
-Gas Phase Chemiluminescence
3. Particulate Matter Annual * 60 60 -Gravimetric
(Size less than 10µm) 24 Hours ** 100 100 -TEOM
or PM10, µg/m3
-Beta attenuation
4. Particulate Matter Annual * 40 40 -Gravimetric
(Size less than 2.5µm) 24 Hours ** 60 60 -TEOM
or PM2.5, µg/m3
-Beta attenuation
5. Ozone (O3) , µg/m3 8 Hours * 100 100 -UV Photometric
1 Hour ** 180 180 -Chemiluminescence
-Chemical Method
6. Lead (Pb) , µg/m3 Annual * 0.50 0.50 -AAS/ICP Method after
24 Hours ** 1.0 1.0 sampling on EPM 2000 or
equivalent filter paper
-ED-XRF using Teflon filter
7. Carbon Monoxide 8 Hours ** 02 02 -Non dispersive Infrared
(CO), mg/m3 1 Hour ** 04 04 (NDIR) Spectroscopy

8. Ammonia (NH3), µg/m3 Annual * 100 100 -Chemiluminescence

24 Hours ** 400 400 -Indophenol blue method
9. Benzene (C6H6), µg/m3 Annual * 05 05 -Gas Chromatography (GC)
based continuous analyzer
-Adsorption and desorption
followed by GC analysis
10. Benzo(a)Pyrene (BaP) Annual * 01 01 -Solvent extraction followed
Particulate phase only, byHPLC/GC analysis
ng/m3
11. Arsenic (As), ng/m3 Annual * 06 06 -AAS/ICP Method after
sampling on EPM 2000 or
equivalent filter paper
12. Nickel (Ni), ng/m3 Annual * 20 20 -AAS/ICP Method after
sampling on EPM 2000 or
equivalent filter paper
* Annual Arithmetic mean of minimum 104 measurements in a year twice a week 24 hourly
at uniform interval. ** 24 hourly/8 hourly values should be met 98% of the time in a year.
However, 2% of the time, it may exceed but not on two consecutive days.

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3. Air Quality Index
Air Quality Index (AQI) is a tool for effective communication of air quality status to
people can easily understand and take action. The AQI is used by agencies to communicate to
the public how polluted the air currently is or how polluted it is forecast to become. Public
health risks increase as the AQI rises. AQI is intended to enhance public awareness and
involvement in efforts to improve air quality. It transforms complex air quality data of
various pollutants into a single number (index value), nomenclature and colour.

(i) There are six AQI categories, namely Good, Satisfactory, Moderate, Poor, Very Poor,
and Severe. Each of these categories is decided based on ambient concentration
values of air pollutants and their likely health impacts (known as health breakpoints).
AQ sub-index and health breakpoints are evolved for eight pollutants (PM10, PM2.5,
NO2, SO2, CO, O3, NH3, and Pb) for which short-term (upto 24-hours) National
Ambient Air Quality Standards are prescribed.

(ii) Based on the measured ambient concentrations of a pollutant, sub-index is calculated,

which is a linear function of concentration. The worst sub-index determines the
overall AQI.

(iii)All the criteria pollutants may not be monitored at all the locations. Overall AQI is
calculated only if data are available for minimum three pollutants out of which one
should necessarily be either PM2.5 or PM10. Else, data are considered insufficient for
calculating AQI. Similarly, a minimum of 16 hours’ data is considered necessary for
calculating subindex.

(iv) Note that AQI is based on 24 hour or 8 hour average pollutant concentration and not
on hourly concentration.

(v) The web-based system designed to provide AQI on real time basis is an automated
system that captures data from monitoring stations on a continuous basis without
human intervention, and displays AQI based on running average values. The near real
time AQI based on monitoring data can be found at https://app.cpcbccr.com.

(vi) AQI categories and health breakpoints for the eight pollutants are as follow:

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 Table-3.1: Breakpoints for AQI Scale 0-500 (units: µg/m3 unless mentioned otherwise)
AQI Category PM10 PM2.5 NO2 O3 CO SO2 NH3 Pb
8-hr
(Range) 24-hr 24-hr 24-hr 8-hr (mg/m3) 24-hr 24-hr 24-hr
Good
0-50 0-30 0-40 0-50 0-1.0 0-40 0-200 0-0.5
(0-50)
Satisfactory
51-100 31-60 41-80 51-100 1.1-2.0 41-80 201-400 0.6 –1.0
(51-100)
Moderate
101-250 61-90 81-180 101-168 2.1- 10 81-380 401-800 1.1-2.0
(101-200)
Poor
251-350 91-120 181-280 169-208 10.1-17 381-800 801-1200 2.1-3.0
(201-300)
Very poor 1201-
351-430 121-250 281-400 209-748* 17.1-34 801-1600 3.1-3.5
(301-400) 1800
Severe
431-500 251-350 400+ 748+* 34+ 1600+ 1800+ 3.5+
(401-500)

Table-3.2: Colour Coding for different AQ Index categories

Table-3.3: AQI and Associated Health Impacts

AQI Associated Health Impacts
Good Minimal Impact
Satisfactory May cause minor breathing discomfort to sensitive people.
Moderate May cause breathing discomfort to people with lung disease such as
asthma, and discomfort to people with heart disease, children and older
adults.
Poor May cause breathing discomfort to people on prolonged exposure
Very Poor May cause respiratory illness to the people on prolonged exposure. Effect
may be more pronounced in people with lung and heart diseases.
Severe May cause respiratory impact even on healthy people, and serious health
impacts on people with lung/heart disease. The health impacts may be
experienced even during light physical activity.
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4. Air Quality Monitoring

The methods of measurement prescribed by CPCB for respective parameters are the
combination of physical method, wet-chemical method and continuous online method. The
continuous online ambient air quality monitoring systems are equipped with analyzers for
measurement of PM10, PM2.5, SO2, CO, NO2, O3, NH3 and Benzene. The metallic
parameters Pb, Ni, As are measured offline using filter based air samplers. The ambient air
quality monitoring station (AQMS) consists of following systems:
 PM10 & PM2.5: Operates on the principle of Beta Ray Attenuation and measures
Particle Mass concentration ranging from 0 to 5 mg/m3 with Minimum detection limit 1
µg/m3. The equipment includes a PM10 inlet and PM2.5 inlet.
 NOx and NH3: Operates on the principle of Chemiluminescence method, ranging from 0
to 2000µg/m3 with minimum detection limit 0.5µg/m3.
 SO2 Analyser: Operates on the principle of UV Fluorescence method, ranging from 0 to
2000 µg/m3 with minimum detection limit 0.5 µg/m3
 CO Analyser: Operates on the principle of Non-Dispersive Infrared Spectrometry
(NDIR) method, ranging from 0 to 100 mg/m3 with minimum detection limit 0.03 µg/m3
 O3 Analyser: Operates on the principle of UV Photometry method, range : 0 to
2500µg/m3 with minimum detection limit 0.5 µg/m3
 Benzene, Toluene, Ethylbenzene, Xylene (BTEX): GC/PID for automatic monitoring
of BTEX in air with minimum detection level as low as 10 ppt in ambient air
 Multigas Calibrator: to calibrate gas analyzers manually, remotely controlled or
automatically, for quality assurance. Multi Calibration upto 20 points.
 Automatic Weather Station (AWS): Ultrasonic Wind Sensor, Barometric Pressure,
Temperature, Relative Humidity, Rainfall, Solar Radiation etc.
All these instruments except AWS are housed in a room or walk-way shelter with proper
sampling system for gaseous and particulate matter parameters. AQMS should have the
calibration facility for onsite calibration with zero and standard gases. Beta Ray Attenuation
for the measurement of PM10 and PM2.5 should be calibrated with standard filters. The
detailed guideline for site selection, measurement frequency, reporting etc has been notified
by CPCB. Each AQMS should also have a PC for recording and transmission of the data via
internet.

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 Table-4.1: Details of SAFAR Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Stations in Delhi
S. Name of No. & name of monitored Additional parameters monitored
No. monitoring station parameters notified under NAAQS
1. NPL, Delhi (Pusa PM (10 & 2.5), NO, NO2, CO, O3, CO2, BC, Toluene, Ethyl Benzene,
Road) Benzene Xylene
2. IMD, Lodhi Road PM (10 & 2.5), NO, NO2, CO, O3, CO2, BC
3. NCMRWF, NOIDA PM (10 & 2.5), NO, NO2, CO, O3 CO2
4. CRRI, Mathura PM (10 & 2.5), NO, NO2, CO, O3, CO2, BC, Toluene, Ethyl Benzene,
Road Benzene Xylene
5. IMD Ayanagar PM (10 & 2.5), NO, NO2, CO, O3, CO2, BC, Toluene, Ethyl Benzene,
Benzene Xylene
6. CV Raman Institute, PM (10 & 2.5), NO, NO2, CO, O3 CO2
Dheerpur
7. Delhi University PM (10 & 2.5), NO, NO2, CO, O3, CO2, BC, Toluene, Ethyl Benzene,
Benzene Xylene
8. IGI Palam Airport PM (10 & 2.5), NO, NO2, CO, O3 CO2
9. NISE, Gurgaon PM (10 & 2.5), NO, NO2, CO, O3 CO2
10. IIT New Delhi PM (10 & 2.5), NO, NO2, CO, O3 CO2

The Air Quality Monitoring System is under Comprehensive Operation and

Maintenance Contract (COMC). EMRC, IMD monitors the functioning of all the AQMS
daily. If any instrument is found not working, it should be brought to the notice of the COMC
engineer.
Air Quality and Meteorological Data collected from monitoring stations are
transmitted to the control room in each city. From Control rooms, data are transmitted to the
Central Control Room installed at IITM, Pune. Central Control Room, Pune converts the
AQMS data to AQI and transmits AQI with meteorological data and Air Quality forecast to
FTP server of each city. FTP server then transmits the data to control server of DDS system
which further transmits data to Digital Display Boards installed in each city. Entire system
has following three components for all four SAFAR-Cities:
(i) Air Quality Monitoring System (AQMS): This system consists the Air Quality
Walkway Shelters with different air quality analyzers, Calibration System, Zero Air
Generator, Sampling System, UPS, ACs and control computer installed in the Shelter.
The main control room computer receives data from all AQMS control computers in a
particular city, Central Control Room Server at IITM, Pune and FTP server at each
stations control room.
(ii) Digital Display System (DDS): It consists of LED and LCD digital display boards
along with a control computer to receive data from FTP server and to transmit the
same to display boards.
(iii) Automatic Weather Stations (AWS): AWSs have been installed in some cities
adjacent to Air Quality Walkway Shelters with a computer in control room of

6
 respective city to receive data from different stations in a particular city and to
transmit the received data to Central Control Server at IITM, Pune.

4.1 Maintenance and Calibration

 Maintenance of the all the equipment including Air quality Walkway Shelters, ACs,
Furniture, PCs and control rooms is the responsibility of COMC service provider. All
the spares and consumables are to be provided by the COMC service provider.
 Calibration: As per the SOP of instruments / analyser and guidelines provided by
CPCB, a periodic calibration is the responsibility of COMC service provider. The
calibration should be done (i) after any repairs or service or relocation that might
affect its calibration, (ii) when there is prolonged interruption in operation, (iii) at
some routine interval as specified by original manufacturer to identify early evidence
of sensor drift. In addition, as and when IMD demands for calibration of any analyzer,
vendor should provide the same without any extra cost. The method and frequency of
calibration, indicated by CPCB, should be adhered to. Field calibration should be
performed by a qualified calibration engineer on site.

Table-4.2: Details of the AQMS installed in Delhi

Description / Model No Make Quantity
1 NOX Analyzer (Model 42i-B-Z-M-S-D-C-A) ThermoFisher 10
Scientific (TFS)
2 O3 Analyzer (Model49i-B-3-N-C-A) TFS 10
3 CO Analyzer (Model 48i-Z-S-C-A) TFS 10
4 PM 10 Continuous Ambient Particulate Monitor (SPM) TFS 10
with PM 10 Head (Model FH 62 C14 Series)
5 PM 2.5 Continuous Ambient Particulate Monitor (RSPM) TFS 10
with PM2.5 Head (Model FH 62 C14 Series)
6 Multipoint Calibrator for calibration TFS 10
(Model146i-B N-3-B-E-A-A)
7 Thermo Make CO2 Analyzer (Model 410i-B-Z-P-E-C-A) TFS 10
8. BTX-Analyser 05
8 Black Carbon Analyzer Model : AE31 Magee Scientific 05
9 Gas & Dust Sampling System TFS 10
10 Zero Air Unit TFS 10
11 (1) Cal. Gas cylinders with regulators; (2) 10 ltr. Water TFS 10
Capacity Aluminum Cylinder;
(3) 47 ltr. water capacity CS Cylinder 10

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 Description / Model No Make Quantity
12 Rack for Analyzers TFS 10
13 Data Acquisition system for individual AQMS (PC) 10
14 GSM Modem with accessories 10
15 Spilt AC 2 Ton/ Hr Capacity 20
16 UPS 5 KVA Online UPS 4 hours back up for all analyzers 10
17 Central Data Acquisitions System (PC) TFS 01
18 Data Acquisition software for individual AQMS TFS 10
19 Data Acquisition software for central stations TFS 02
18 High –Definition Multimedia Interface Movie Plus, Smart 02
frame plus.
Wide color enhancer software
01
19 Walkway Shelter (Environnement SA) 10

5. Relation between weather and pollutant concentration

The weather is one of the main factors affecting the air quality. Weather can help to clear
away pollutants from atmosphere to improve air quality, or it can make air pollution
extremely worse by helping to form highly polluted regions. The concentration of air
pollutants in ambient air is governed by the meteorological parameters such as atmospheric
wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and temperature.

 The stubble burning is common across northwestern India and neighbouring Pakistan
during the October and November. The stubble burning also takes place during
summer months of May and June but comparatively very small extent. The number of
fire counts and prevailing wind direction influence the air quality over Delhi NCR.
 The mixing height and ventilation coefficient are important parameters to assess the
dispersion of pollutant. Ventilation coefficient defined as the product of the mixing
height (m) and the transport wind speed (m/s) is used as a tool for air quality
forecasters to determine the potential of the atmosphere to disperse pollutants. There
exist a negative correlation between PM concentrations and mixing boundary layer
depth. The ventilation index lower than 6000 m2/s with average wind speed less than
10 kmph is unfavourable for dispersion of pollutants.
 In summer, with an average PM2.5 of 40–100 μg/m3, in addition to the road dust
already present on Delhi roads, dust storms from the Thar Desert, to the southwest,
contribute to increased fugitive dust. This is aggravated by the low moisture content
8
 in the air, leading to higher resuspension (40-50% of PM in summer, compared to less
than 10% in winter).
 In the winter months, with an average PM2.5 of ∼100 - 200 μg/m3, the use of biomass
primarily for heating contributes to ∼10-30% with most of the burning taking place at
night, when the “mixing layer height” is low and further worsening the ambient
concentrations. This emission source is difficult to incorporate in inventories which
lead to under-estimation of model forecast concentration. When night temperature is
low this should be taken into account while preparing bulletin.
 Stagnant weather conditions (eg, low wind speeds, descending air, and low boundary
layer) favour accumulation of pollutants. On the other hand, in the presence of a
strong pressure gradient, prevailing wind speeds increase and, as a result, dust
resuspension occurs and PM10 concentration increases.
 Higher air pollution is known to be associated with anticyclonic conditions, and
conversely, cyclonic conditions are associated with lower air pollution. Anticyclones
are characterized by surface‐air flow outward from the high‐pressure center and
subsiding air from an overlying atmosphere. Due to this subsidence, the skies are
typically clear, with minimal precipitation and increased stability. These factors
inhibit dispersion and promote accumulation of air pollutants. Stagnation episodes,
often associated with anticyclones, tend to favour pollutant accumulation.
 On the other hand, low‐pressure cyclonic systems exhibit ascending air flows,
frequently accompanied by cloudy skies and precipitation, associated with strong
winds and are fast moving. All these weather conditions result in lower concentration
of pollutants.
 Rainfall can effectively remove atmospheric particulate pollutants, and the removal
rate of PM10 is greater than the removal rate of PM2.5.
 The reactions that create harmful ozone in our atmosphere require sunlight. In the
summers and especially during extreme heat waves, ozone often reaches dangerous
levels in cities or nearby rural areas. The photochemical reactions for ozone formation
or destruction decline rapidly at night-time resulting in lower levels of ozone at
night. Ozone can accumulate when there are high temperatures, which enhance the
rate of ozone formation and stagnant air. The often cloudless and warm conditions
associated with large high-pressure systems also are favorable for the photochemical
production of ozone. Heat waves often lead to poor air quality. The extreme heat and

9
 stagnant air during a heat wave increases the amount of ozone pollution and
particulate pollution.
 Western disturbance particularly in winter season significantly impact the air quality.
The approach of WD is characterized by rise in minimum temperature and occurrence
of rainfall. Once the WD crosses a place then minimum temperature starts
dropping.The formation of fog starts and slowly the cold wave occurs spreading to
southwards in the country.
 Wind-blown dust: In general windspeed more than 7 m/s can lift dust. Heavier
particles will settle near the source area, with the smaller ones settling farther away.

6. Air Quality Early Warning System

Short-term air quality forecasts can provide timely information about forthcoming air
pollution episodes that the decision-makers can use to reduce public exposure to extreme air
pollution events. In this perspective, the Air Quality Early Warning System (AQ-EWS) has
been developed under the aegis of Ministry of Earth Sciences, jointly by Indian Institute of
Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India Meteorological Department, and National Centre
for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). The System is designed to predict air
pollution events and give alerts to take necessary steps for air pollution control. The Early
Warning System consists of:
a) Air Quality forecast for Delhi region for 3-days and outlook for next 7-days from
different air quality prediction systems based on state-of-the-art atmospheric
chemistry transport models
b) Air Quality Forecast for entire India and specifically for several non-attainment cities
c) Real time observations of air quality over Delhi region, fire counts, AOD
d) Details about natural aerosols like dust (from satellite and model forecast)
e) Near real-time fire information over India
f) Generation of Warning Messages, Alerts and Bulletins for Air Quality and Weather.
g) Forecast of the contribution of non-local fire emissions,
h) Weather Information
i) Day to day verification of forecast product.
j) The Air Quality information is disseminated through website
https://ews.tropmet.res.in. The link of the website is provided on IMD website also.

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6.1 Air Quality Prediction Models
There are different Air Quality Prediction Models operationally run under the air
quality early warning system (AQ-EWS)

(i) Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem)

(ii) System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric composition (SILAM)

(iii) High resolution model ENvironmental information FUsion SERvice (ENFUSER)

(iv) NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM) Dust-Forecast

(v) HYSPLIT Backward and Forward Trajectories

Figure-6.1: General Schematic of the Air Quality Early Warning System

6.1.1 System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (IMD SILAM)

System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) is a global-
to-meso-scale dispersion model developed for atmospheric composition, air quality, and
emergency decision support applications, as well as for inverse dispersion problem solution.
The model incorporates both Eulerian and Lagrangian transport routines, 8 chemico-
physical transformation modules (basic acid chemistry and secondary aerosol formation,
ozone formation in the troposphere and the stratosphere, radioactive decay, aerosol dynamics
11
in the air, pollen transformations), 3- and 4-dimensional variational data assimilation
modules. SILAM source terms include point- and area- source inventories, sea salt, wind-
blown dust, natural pollen, natural volatile organic compounds, nuclear explosion, as well as
interfaces to ship emission system STEAM and fire information system IS4FRIES.
The regional SILAM model generates 3 days forecasts over a domain covering whole
India at 3 km horizontal resolution. The meteorological forcing is provided from the
operational 3 km WRF model. The initial condition is derived from the forecast of the
previous cycle of regional SILAM model and boundary condition is supplied from global
version of the model. The SILAM model setup for India is as follows:
Running:
• Hourly AQ Forecast of all criteria pollutants (PM10, PM2.5, O3, CO, NOx, SO2 and
other species) for 72 hours.
• Domain: 60-100E, 0-40N, 3km x3km grid, 15 hybrid layers up to ~10km (~270hpa).
Driving Meteorology:
 Hourly 3-km WRF forecasts (IMD)
AQ Boundary conditions:
• 3 hourly SILAM Global Suit forecasts
Emissions:
• CAMS-GLOB v2.1 0.1-deg supplemented with EDGAR v4.3.2 for coarse
and mineral-fine anthropogenic PM.
• GEIA v1 lightning climatology
• MEGAN-MACC biogenic climatology for isoprene and mono-terpene.
• Natural (dynamic): Silam desert dust, Silam sea salt, Silam marine DMS.
• Delhi 400m emissions
Aerosol Process:
• Simple equilibrium scheme for secondary inorganic aerosols, Volatile Basis-Set
(VBS) for secondary organic aerosol module
• CBM5 chemistry supplemented with secondary organics, DMAT_SULPHUR sulphur
oxidation.
Validation
• In-situ air quality data from SAFAR, CPCB, DPCC and SPCBs

12
 Figure-6.2: Schematic diagram of IMD SILAM

6.1.2 WRF-Chem (MoES-UCAR joint activity)

This modeling framework consists of a high-resolution fully coupled state-of-the-
science Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem)
and three-dimensional Variational (3DVAR) framework of the community Gridpoint
Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system, which assimilate data from satellites at 3 km
resolution on aerosol optical depth, surface data from more than 260 air quality monitoring
stations in India and high-resolution emissions from various anthropogenic and natural
sources including dust and stubble burning. Forecast of the contribution of non-local fire
emissions to the air quality in Delhi is also generated. The warning system also provides
an air quality forecast for a few more cities in the northern region of India at 10 km
resolution. The website also shows forecast verification for Delhi on a daily basis.
 The model is being run by IITM
 The chemical data assimilation system is based on Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation
(GSI) system.
 Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) retrieved from Moderate Resolution Imaging
Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard Tera and Aqua are assimilated.

13
  Terra AOD is assimilated at 06 UTC and Aqua AOD is assimilated at 09 UTC.

Figure-6.3: Schematic diagram of WRF-Chem

 Surface PM2.5 data assimilation from dense monitoring network
 Near-real time stubble fire emission from MODIS fire count at assimilation cycle,
Fires data from MODIS (1km) +VIRS (370 m)
 High resolution land surface data assimilation (HRDAS)
 A background error covariance matrix incorporating uncertainties in both
anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions is generated.
 100% uncertainty is assumed in anthropogenic and biomass burning emission sources
following the literature.
 An observations preprocessor for MODIS collection 6.1 is developed.
 System is driven by analysis and forecast product (Ensemble-Kalman filtering)
produced by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology-Global Forecasting System
(IITM-GFS, T1534) spectral model initial and boundary conditions at 12.5 km grid
resolution available at every three hours

6.1.3 Description of FMI-IMD ENFUSER

ENvironmental information FUsion SERvice (ENFUSER) is an operational,
adaptive local-scale dispersion model. Technically, the model is a combination of Gaussian
Puff and Gaussian Plume –style of dispersion modelling that utilizes measurement data to
perform data fusion. The long-range transportation of pollutants are handled in the model
by nesting the local-scale modelling on a regional-scale mode concentration fields. The aim
of the data fusion is to adapt the dispersion modelling on an hourly basis to gain higher

14
level of agreement with measurements; technically this is done by modifying emission
factors for known sources and adjusting background concentrations, while simultaneously
benchmarking measurement reliability. Further, on a longer term analysis period more
realistic parametrization for emission sources can be obtained via the data fusion process,
which after a while begins to show distinguishable trends and patterns for emission factors.

In addition to traditional dispersion model inputs, the ENFUSER uses and

assimilates a large amount of Geographic Information System data (GIS) to describe the
modelling area on a high resolution. This includes detailed description of the road network,
buildings, land-use information, high-resolution satellite images, ground elevation and
population data.

6.1.3.1 ENFUSER setup at IMD

FMI-IMD ENFUSER is set to model the Delhi as defined in Table-6.1 below and the overall
configuration has been illustrated in the Figure-6.4 below.

Figure-6.4: The ENFUSER modelling concept

15
 Table-6.1: The main details of the installed ENFUSER configuration at IMD.
Domain range, Latitude 28.362N - 28.86N
Domain range, Longitude 76.901E - 77.56E
Spatial resolution 27m (inner areas with higher resolution can be added)
Temporal resolution 1h averages
Modelled species NO2, PM2.5, PM10, O3, coarse PM, SO2, CO
Modelling time span >48h per model run, updated several times a day
Main output formats netCDF, statistics as CSV
Secondary output formats animations (avi), gif, Figures (PNG)
Output storage Local (compressed) and optionally AWS S3 cloud storing

6.1.3.2 Static Data - GIS

ENFUSER operates with a static model of the area as a basis for the modelling, i.e.
data from various sources about terrain, population, infrastructure and land-use. For
automatic processing and extraction of such information ENFUSER uses a built-in tool
called the “mapFUSER” shown in Figure-6.5. The basic principle of the mapFUSER is to
collect core (“Level 1”) GIS data for the target area (Delhi) and combine the information to
create derivative datasets (Level 2 and 3) also to be used in the modelling. Examples of
these datasets and their processing levels are presented in Table-6.2.

Figure-6.5: The mapFUSER program for the creation and editing of GIS-data

16
 Table-6.2: mapFUSER datasets, default resolutions, sources of information and
processing levels. A higher processing level means that the creation of the dataset relies
on lower level datasets.
Name Resolution [m] Source
OSM land-use, surface* 5 OpenStreetMap
OSM land-use, functional 10 OpenStreetMap
Satellite image 10 Sentinel 2 MSI (TCI)
Satellite image, near-infrared 10 Sentinel 2 MSI (B08 band)
Elevation 30 NASA SRTM
Population 300 Global Human Settlement
Built land-use 30 Global Human Settlement
Road network 5 Several
Elevation gradient 30 Several
Vegetation index 10 Several
Enhanced population 50 Several
Building height 5 Several
Population density at radius X 200
Property X density at radius Y 200
Household emission inventory proxy 20 Many
Traffic flow estimates for roads 5 Many

6.1.3.3 Static Data – Emissions

The key emission inventory used in the modelling is the SAFAR emission inventory
provided by IMD as a text file (400x400m data). For ENFUSER this information has been
converted into netCDF format. However, since the model requires some specific emission
sources to be presented in greater detail than can be derived from the inventory, there are
some exceptions:

(i) ENFUSER has its own traffic emission model that uses OpenStreetMap road network
for Delhi and an associated traffic flow model to the roads
(ii) Thermal power plants are treated as elevated point sources (and not as gridded
inventory) and the base source for information is the Global Energy Observatory.
(iii) Brick kiln –industry has been preliminarily mapped in higher detail1 than it is
available in the SAFAR-inventory and is modelled as a separate source of interest.
(iv) Aviation, based on OpenSky-activity data, processed into line-sources.
(v) Some notable dump-yards in Delhi are modelled as point sources.
17
6.1.3.4 Dynamic Data
To facilitate the modelling, a separate instance of ENFUSER is running in the background,
continuously extracting online information (i.e, “DataMiner”). The DataMiner has a
number of data “feeds” which download dynamic data for the model from different online
sources and stores local files for the model to access.

Figure-6.6: The basic principle of mining dynamic input data for the mode

The precise setup of the DataMiner varies from installation to installation, depending on the
geographical area. Most ENFUSER installations still share many of the information feeds
regardless of the modelling area, however.

Currently the feeds in the ENFUSER installation at IMD are as follows:

• WRF/GFS:
At the moment this feed with WRF data (3km x 3km resolution) is in use but can also be
substituted with GFS data of IMD.
• SILAM:
ENFUSER natively tap in to the operative IMD regional SILAM access point.
• Traffic Congestion Data
This feed obtains real-time traffic congestion data from https://www.here.com for Delhi.
These data can be used to modify traffic flow speeds in Delhi in real time, thereby affecting
the modelled traffic emissions. It can also be used to characterize traffic patterns in Delhi
when properly analysed over a longer period of time.

18
Figure-6.7: HERE-congestion profile (visualized by mapFUSER) for a selected road in Delhi
(Mahatma Gandi Marg). Traffic congestion data such as this can be used for a) emission
factor adjustments and b) as input for deep learning –estimated traffic flow patterns.

• TROPOMI:
This feed downloads data from Copernicus ESA SENTINEL 5P Tropomi satellite pollutant
total column concentration data: https://sentinel.esa.int/web/sentinel/missions/sentinel-
5p/data-products/. TROPOMI-data does not currently contribute to the operational use of
the model due to it nature (total column concentration), resolution (7x4km) and data
availability (once per day). However, it makes setting up the model easier since it is possible
to see the pollution hotspots in the area.
• OPENSKY: This feed downloads air traffic data from https://opensky-network.org/
• DELHIAQ: This is a custom feed for downloading data from AQMSs in Delhi via EMRC
FTP server. For Delhi, this source of information is able to provide measurements from
approx. 40 reference stations.
• OPENAQ: This feed extracts measurement data from a global, open access source of
information. This is to be used only when DELHIAQ are unable to provide measurement
data.
• BLview/Ceilometer: Boundary layer height (BLH) information can be optionally fed to the
modelling system, however, the local access for this kind of data needs to be provided in
proper format.

19
Figure-6.8: Assimilated S5P TROPOMI total column -concentrations for a) Aerosol index
(up, left), NO2 (up, right), HCHO (down, left) and CO (down, right).
ENFUSER was used to assimilate the data, using 300 to 400 daily S5P
snapshots.

6.1.3.5 Technical details

An AOT (ahead-of-time) compiled binary of the Java application has been installed on a
Workstation PC at EMRC, IMD. The system uses Linux OS, has a twelve core Intel(R)
Xeon(R) Silver 4214 CPU @ 2.20GHz and 96 GB of RAM.
The installation has been set for several modelling runs per day (run as “cron jobs”),
currently three times, however, the frequency of model runs can be easily modified by
system manager as well as the overall modelling time span can be modified freely.
Currently, each modelling task run has been seen to take approx. 2 hours (including the
creation of visualizations). Each model run creates a log-file that describes detailed
information on the health and events occurred during the modelling run task. Each model
run will archive the modelling output on an hourly basis in a compact and permanent local
file storage. In addition, each model run optionally creates larger netCDF-files (whole
modelling time span), animation videos and figures for all pollutant species modelled.
Regarding the measurements that were used during the modelling task (data fusion) a
thorough statistical summary (as CSV) is also stored in a permanent archive for later
reference and longer-term statistical analysis works.
20
6.1.3.6 Backward and Forward Trajectories
HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) transport
model can be used to estimate the forward or backward trajectory of an air mass. The
model has been developed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),
Air Resources Laboratory (ARL). Back trajectory analysis is helpful for ascertaining the
origins and sources of pollutants, which makes is most useful for air quality forecasting.
Forward trajectory analysis is helpful for determining the dispersion of pollutants.
Trajectories are applied in various fields such as climatology, meteorology, transport of
pollutants, residence time analysis, air quality, source apportionment, aerosol
measurements, precipitation chemistry etc.
In meteorological terms, a trajectory is the time-integration of the change in position
of an air parcel as it is transported by the wind. Air mass trajectories are typically
calculated in a backward mode (path of air movement arriving at a receptor location) or
forward mode (path of air movement leaving from a source location). Backward
trajectories have been used to explore predominant source regions of particulate matter and
regional haze for various receptor locations and time periods and to establish typical flow
patterns and transportation ranges. When calculating trajectories, computational methods
use (1) IMD WRF model-derived wind data to compute horizontal components, and (2)
either isobaric, kinematic or isentropic methods to determine the vertical components of
the trajectory. The isobaric and isentropic approaches assume that the trajectory remains on
surfaces of constant pressure and constant potential temperature, respectively, whereas the
kinematic approach assumes that the trajectory moves with the vertical wind fields
generated by a diagnostic or prognostic meteorological model. The kinematic approach has
been found to be preferable for trajectory modelling over Asian region. The model
calculation method is a hybrid methodology between the Lagrangian approach (using a
moving frame of reference as the air parcels move from their initial location) and the
Eulerian approach (using a fixed three-dimensional grid as a reference frame). In the
model, advection and diffusion calculations are made on a Lagrangian framework to
describe the transport of the air parcel and trajectories, while a fixed grid is used to
calculate pollutant concentrations.
The model uses previously gridded meteorological data. The meteorological data
used by HYSPLIT is gridded four-dimensional (x, y, z, t) meteorological fields output as
analysis or forecast wind fields from the IMD WRF (3 km resolution). The HYSPLIT
model has been installed on a computer and run locally. HYSPLIT backtrajectories from
21
 multiple heights are often run to capture the effects of vertical variation of horizontal winds
within the mixed layer depth. Sample backward trajectories of New Delhi station with
multiple start height obtained from HYSPLIT system are shown in Figure-6.9.

Figure-6.9: IMD HYSPLIT Backward Trajectories at 100m, 500m and 1000m above
ground level based on WRF Forecast

6.1.4 System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting and Research (SAFAR)
System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting and Research (SAFAR) was
introduced by MoES to provide location specific information on air quality in near real time
and its forecast upto 3 days in India. The SAFAR system is developed by Indian Institute of
Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, along with India Meteorological Department (IMD) and
National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). The implementation
of SAFAR is made possible with an active collaboration with local municipal corporations
and various local educational institutions and governmental agencies in Delhi, Pune, Mumbai
and Ahmedabad. The objective of the project is to increase awareness among general public
regarding the air quality changes in their city well in advance so that appropriate mitigation
measures and systematic action can be taken up for betterment of air quality and related
health issues.
The SAFAR project involves four components to facilitate the current and advance
forecasting, namely:

(i) Development of the high-resolution emission inventory of air pollutants for NCT and
in cities of Pune, Mumbai and Ahmedabad.

(ii) Establishment of a network of Air Quality Monitoring Stations (AQMS) equipped

with Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) to monitor and provide air pollutant
information and weather parameters 24x7 over Delhi. The continuous data monitoring
has a vital role in validation of model output and its incorporation in forecast model.
22
 (iii)The 3-D atmospheric chemistry transport forecasting model coupled with weather
forecasting model to provide air quality forecasts. Weather plays a major role in the
transport of pollutants from the sources and to the ambient concentrations.

(iv) Dissemination of the information and reaching the general public. The data are
translated into a public friendly format in the form of AQI for India and then
displayed via LED and LCD screens located at different locations in Delhi.

The data collected from the monitoring network is a major input for the forecasting model
along with the emission inventory. After running the 3D atmospheric chemistry transport
model, results are transferred to the IITM Data server. Once the near real-time and forecasted
data are checked for quality assurance, it is transferred to the display server after converting
to AQI.

Figure-6.10: System of Air Quality Forecasting And Research (SAFAR) setup

23
7. Preparation of Daily Air Quality and Weather Bulletin
The daily Air Quality and Weather Bulletin is prepared, once in the morning and
another in afternoon.
a) Air Quality and Weather Prediction for 3 Days and outlook for weather and air quality
event for next seven days.
b) Meteorological Forecast for next 7 days: Wind direction and windspeed, Temperature,
Relative Humidity, Rainfall and Weather events
c) Diagnostic Products:
(i) Mixing Height and Ventilation Forecast from GFS model (10 Days)
(ii) Airmass Trajectories: Forward and Backward using HYSPLIT model
d) Satellite Images:
(i) Dust Transport (During summer or when dust transport is expected)
e) Meteogram/EPSgram (10 Days) Wind, RH, Rainfall
f) Fire Counts during Post-monsoon, Winter and Summer

7.1 Source of Forecasting Products and Information

a) Weather Forecast (Wind direction and windspeed, Temperature, Relative Humidity,

Rainfall and Weather events):
The forecast is available on http://rmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in

b) The current AQ information is available at CPCB website

https://app.cpcbccr.com/ccr/#/dashboard-emergency-stats
The current AQ is also available on https://ews.tropmet.res.in. The near real time air
quality data are being received at EMRC ftp server for use in AQ models.

c) Following products are available on https://ews.tropmet.res.in under the Tab 10 Days

Forecast

(i) Mixing Height and Ventilation Forecast from GFS model (10 Days)

(ii) Air Quality Forecast:- Under the Tab Analysis, see AQI for PM2.5 and PM10

(iii) Meteogram/EPSgram (10 Days)

24
 d) The Backward and Forward Trajectories are available at
http://nwp.imd.gov.in/hysplitproducts.php

e) Fire Counts from MODIS and VIIRS https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/

Fire counts are also available on EWS website.

7.2 Air Quality Forecast Dissemination

The Air Quality information is disseminated through website https://ews.tropmet.res.in

The link of the website is provided on IMD website also.
The Air Quality Bulletin is sent to following officials daily:
(i) Commission for Air Quality Management (C-AQM)
(ii) Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB)
(iii) Ministry of Environment, Forest & Climate Change (MoEFCC)
(iv) Delhi Pollution Control Committee (DPCC)
(v) State Pollution Control Board in Delhi NCR region (Regional Office: Noida,
Ghaziabad, Faridabad, Gurugram, Ajmer, Jaipur, Punjab)
(vi) NWFC, RMC, New Delhi
(vii) Registered Users
Also, the forecast bulletin is sent to PMO and other higher officials only on instruction of
Secretary, MoES and DGM.

8. Contact Details of EMRC/NWP Officers:

Dr. Vijay Kumar Soni,

Head, Environment Monitoring and Research Center vijay.soni@imd.gov.in
(EMRC), soni_vk@yahoo.com
Room No. 609, SatMet Building 01143824440 (O)
India Meteorological Department 01124646339 (O)
Ministry of Earth Sciences, Mausam Bhawan,
Lodi Road, New Delhi-110003
Dr Anand Kumar Das akuda.imd@gmail.com
Scientist-E, NWP 01143824266(O)
Dr. Chinmay Jena Chinmay.jena@imd.gov.in
Scientist-C, EMRC
Mr. Sanjay Bist sanjay.bist@imd.gov.in
Scientist-E, EMRC

25
9. References

FMI User guide for SILAM chemical transport model.

http://silam.fmi.fi/doc/SILAM_v5_userGuide_general.pdf
Sofiev M., Vira J., Prank M., Soares J., Kouznetsov R. (2014) An outlook of System for
Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition SILAM v.5. In: Steyn D., Builtjes P.,
Timmermans R. (eds) Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXII. NATO Science for
Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security. Springer, Dordrecht.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5577-2_67
Sofiev, M., Siljamo, P.; Valkama, I., Ilvonen, M., Kukkonen, J. (2006). "A dispersion
modelling system SILAM and its evaluation against ETEX data". Atmospheric
Environment. 40 (4): 674–685. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2005.09.069
Sofiev, M., Vira, J., Kouznetsov, R., Prank, M., Soares, J., Genikhovich, E. (2015).
Construction of the SILAM Eulerian atmospheric dispersion model based on the advection
algorithm of Michael Galperin, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3497–
3522, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3497-2015
Jena, C., Ghude, S.D., Kumar, R., Debnath, S., Govardhan, G., Soni, V. K., Kulkarni, S. H.,
Beig, G., Nanjundiah, R. S., Rajeevan, M. (2021) Performance of high resolution (400 m)
PM2.5 forecast over Delhi. Scientific Reports, 11, 4104. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-
83467-8.
Kumar, R., Ghude, S.D., Biswas, M., Jena, C., Alessandrini, S., Debnath, S., Santosh
Kulkarni, S., Sperati, S., Soni, V.K., Nanjundiah, R.S., Rajeevan, M. (2020). Enhancing
accuracy of air quality and temperature forecasts during paddy crop residue burning season in
Delhi via chemical data assimilation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125,
e2020JD033019. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033019.
Jena, C., Ghude, S., Kumar, R., Debnath, S., Soni, V. K., Nanjundiah, R.S., Rajeevan, M.
(2020) High-resolution (400 m) operational air quality early warning system for Delhi, India.
IGAC News, issue no. 66, pp 25-26.
Kulkarni, S., Ghude, S., Jena, C., Karumuri, R.K., Sinha, B., Sinha, V., Kumar, R., Soni, V.
K., Khare, M. (2020) How much large scale crop residue burning affect the air quality in
Delhi?. Environmental Science & Technology, 54, 8, 4790-4799.
https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.0c00329.
Ghude, S. D., Soni, V. K. et al. (2020) Evaluation of PM2.5 forecast using chemical data
assimilation in the WRF-Chem model: a new initiative under the Ministry of Earth Sciences
(MoES) air quality early warning system (AQEWS) for Delhi. Current Science, 118, 11,
1803-1815. doi:10.18520/cs/v118/i11/1803-1815

26
 Annexure-I
Example

Air Quality and Weather Bulletin for Delhi NCR (Date DD.MM.YYYY
Morning/Afternoon)

1. As per AQ-EWS models the air quality over Delhi NCR is likely to remain in Poor
category on 29.06.2020. The PM10 is the predominant pollutant due to dust raising
winds. The air quality is likely to improve marginally but remain in Moderate
category on 30.06.2020. The air quality is likely to improve further but remain in
Moderate to Satisfactory category on 01.07.2020.

2. The predominant surface wind is likely to be coming from Northwest direction of

Delhi having wind speed up to 15 kmph with partly cloudy sky and light
rain/thundershowers towards evening/night on 29.06.2020. The predominant surface
wind is likely to be coming from East direction of Delhi having wind speed up to 15
kmph with partly cloudy sky and very light rain/thundershowers on 30.06.2020. The
predominant surface wind is likely to be coming from Southeast direction of Delhi
having wind speed up to 15 kmph with partly cloudy sky and possibility of thundery
development on 01.07.2020.

3. Predicted maximum mixing depth is likely to remain from 3900 m on 29.06.2020,

3800 m on 30.06.2020 and 4300 m on 01.07.2020 over Delhi. Ventilation index is
likely to be 23000 m2/s on 29.06.2020, 17000 m2/s on 30.06.2020 & 29000 m2/s on
01.07.2020. The ventilation index lower than 6000 m2/s with average wind speed less
than 10 kmph is unfavourable for dispersion of pollutants.

4. Strong surface winds are likely to impact dust concentration over Delhi NCR. Dust
transport from Rajasthan and adjoining Pakistan is also likely to impact air quality on
29.06.2020.

5. Location specific AQ forecast can be seen at safar.tropmet.res.in. Detailed forecast

analysis and verification can be seen at https://ews.tropmet.res.in.

6. Air mass inflow in Delhi along with ventilation index is attached.

27
Dated: 17 November 2019 Time of Issue 1100 IST
DELHI WEATHER FORECAST FOR NEXT SEVEN DAYS
Temp (℃ ) Direction/ Wind Speed (Kmph)
DATE WEATHER FORECAST
0530-1130 1130-1730 1730-2330
MAX MIN
(IST) (IST) (IST)
Mainly clear sky. Strong surface
17.11.2019 28 16.2 NW/12 NW/25 WNW/15 winds during the day (speed 25-30
kmph).
Partly cloudy sky. Strong surface
18.11.2019 27 15 WNW/12 WNW/20 W/10 winds during the day (speed 15-20
kmph).
Mainly clear sky. Shallow fog in
19.11.2019 27 13
WNW/10 NW/12 NNE/08 the morning.
Partly cloudy sky. Moderate fog in
20.11.2019 27 12
CALM/00 NE/06 E/10 the morning.
Partly cloudy sky. Shallow to
21.11.2019 28 13 E/08 ESE/10 E/10 moderate fog in the morning.
Partly cloudy sky. Shallow fog in
22.11.2019 28 14 E/08 WNW/08 CALM/00 the morning.
NW/08 NW/10 NW/12 Partly cloudy sky. Shallow fog in
23.11.2019 27 15
the morning.

TEMPERATURE NORMALS
DATE MAX MIN
17TH NOV TO 21ST NOV 27.8 12.4
22ND NOV TO 26TH NOV 26.5 12.4
LEGEND
RAINFALL INTENSITY
Terminology Rainfall Range in mm Terminology Rainfall Range in mm
Very Light Rainfall Trace – 2.4 Heavy Rainfall 64.5 – 115.5
Light rainfall 2.5 – 15.5 Very Heavy Rainfall 115.6 – 204.4
Extremely Heavy
Moderate Rainfall 15.6 – 64.4 >= 204.5
Rainfall

CLOUD AMOUNT PROBABILISTIC FORECAST

Terminology Amount of Cloud in Octa Terms Probability of Occurrence (%)
Clear Sky 0 Unlikely <25
Mainly clear sky 1-2 Likely 25 - 50
Partly cloudy sky 3-4 Very Likely 50 – 75
Generally cloudy
5-7 Most Likely >75
sky
Overcast 8
WIND DIRECTION (WIND COMING FROM)
CALM No Wind is Blowing VRB Variable wind (direction cannot be
determined)
NNE North-North Easterly wind SSW South-South Westerly Wind
NE North Easterly wind SW South Westerly Wind
ENE East-North Easterly wind WSW West-South Westerly Wind
E Easterly wind W Westerly Wind
ESE East-South Easterly wind WNW West-North Westerly Wind
SE South Easterly wind NW North Westerly Wind
SSE South-South Easterly wind NNW North-North Westerly Wind
S Southerly wind N Northerly wind
28
10 Days Forecast of Wind, RH and Rainfall for Delhi

29
10 Days Forecast of Ventilation Index

10 Days Forecast of Mixing Height

30
 Airmass Trajectories
1. Backward Trajectories Ending at 100 m (above Ground Level)

2. Backward Trajectories Ending at 500 m (above Ground Level)

31
3. Backward Trajectories Ending at 1000 m (above Ground Level)

32
Environment Monitoring and Research Centre,
India Meteorological Department
(Ministry of Earth Sciences)
6TH Floor, SatMet Building
Lodhi Road, New Delhi - 110003