1 NEWS Verian Poll

(Note, the new poll name reflects Kantar Public’s new brand name)

16 - 19 September 2023
Attention: Television New Zealand

Release date: 20 September 2023

Contents
Contents .......................................................................................................................................................... 1

Methodology summary ................................................................................................................................... 2

Summary of results .......................................................................................................................................... 3

Key political events .......................................................................................................................................... 4

Question order and wording ............................................................................................................................ 5

Party vote ........................................................................................................................................................ 6

Preferred Prime Minister ................................................................................................................................. 8

Parliamentary seat entitlement ..................................................................................................................... 10

Method for calculating parliamentary seat entitlement ................................................................................ 10

1 News Verian Poll - 1

Methodology summary
CLIENT: Television New Zealand.

RELEASED: Wednesday 20 September 2023

POLL CONDUCTED: Interviewing took place from Saturday 16 to Tuesday 19 September 2023.

MEDIAN FIELDWORK DAY: Sunday (50% of sample size target was reached on this day).

TARGET POPULATION: Eligible New Zealand voters.

INTERVIEW METHOD: Telephone and online. Conducted by CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone
Interviewing) and CAWI (Computer Assisted Web Interviewing).

SAMPLE SELECTION: Mobile: Random dialling of New Zealand mobile telephones using probability
sampling. Interviewers ask to speak to the main user of the phone who is aged 18
years or over. When required, multiple calls are made to reach that person. Voting
eligibility is determined at the first question.
Online: Interviews are collected by online panels, with quotas (or interviewing
targets) set to ensure the final sample is nationally representative. All respondents
are aged 18 or over. The panels used comply with the ESOMAR guidelines for online
research.

SAMPLE SIZE: n = 1,001 eligible voters, including n=501 polled via mobile phone and n=500 polled
online, using online panels.

SAMPLING ERROR: The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence
level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower
than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5%
have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9%-points and ±1.4%-points, respectively,
at the 95% confidence level.
These sampling errors assume a simple random sample of 1,000 eligible voters.

It should be noted that any demographic sub-group analysis (e.g., by age or gender)
will be based on a smaller set of interviews and so will have a wider sampling error.

WEIGHTING: The data have been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age,
gender, region, ethnic identification and education level.

REPORTED FIGURES: Reported bases are unweighted. For Party Support, percentages have been rounded
up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to
1 decimal place. For all other figures percentages have been rounded up or down to
whole numbers except those less than 1%, which are reported to 1 decimal place.
All sub-group differences listed for supplementary questions are statistically
significant at the 95% confidence level.

METHODOLOGY NOTES: The party vote question has been asked unprompted since February 1997.

Note: Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party
support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
This poll was conducted in accordance with the New Zealand Political Polling Code. Publication or reproduction
of the results must be acknowledged as the “1 NEWS Verian Poll”.

1 News Verian Poll - 2

Summary of results
PARTY SUPPORT – PARTY VOTE
National Party 37% Down 2% -points from 9 to 12 September 2023
Labour Party 27% Down 1% -point
Green Party 12% Up 2% -points
ACT Party 12% Up 2% -points
New Zealand First 5% Steady
Te Pāti Māori 3% Steady
The Opportunities Party (TOP) 1% Steady
New Zealand Loyal 1% Up 1% -point
Freedoms NZ 1% Up 1% -point

UNDECIDED VOTERS
Party Vote – Don’t know or refused 12% Up 2% -points from 9 to 12 September 2023

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

Chris Hipkins 23% Steady from 9 to 12 September 2023

Christopher Luxon 23% Steady

David Seymour 5% Steady

Winston Peters 4% Steady

Nicola Willis 2% Up 1% -point

Chlöe Swarbrick 2% Up 1% -point

Jacinda Ardern 1% Steady

James Shaw 1% Up 1% -point

Rawiri Waititi 1% Up 1% -point

Marama Davidson 1% Up 1% -point

The results shown on this page, and the changes identified over time, are reported to the nearest whole
number. More detailed results are provided in the body of this report.

1 News Verian Poll - 3

Key political events
10th September 2023 – 16th September 2023
• ACT released its housing policy promising to cut red tape. ACT proposed scraping the Natural and Built
Environment Act which replaced the Resource and Management Act a month ago.
• If elected, the Greens promise to create an Ocean Commission. The party plans to protect 30% of the
Pacific Ocean by 2030.
• National Leader, Christopher Luxon would not rule out working with New Zealand First in a coalition
agreement.
• Labour promises free cervical screening for those aged 25 to 69 if re-elected.
• The PREFU ahead of the 2023 election was released, revealing the government books are in better
shape than previously predicted.
• ACT leader, David Seymour, suggested more people should be in prison. The party announced a suite
of policies creating tougher sentences for certain crimes.
• Labour received no significant donations from businesses in the last three years. National, on the
other hand, has received over $1,000,000 in donations from businesses over the same period.
• Some economists have found a $530m hole in National’s foreign buyer’s tax. These economists
analysed National’s tax and said it would not raise the amount that National expected. National’s
finance spokesperson rejected the deficit in their budgeting.
• National accused the Ministry for Pacific Peoples of extravagant spending on a $50,000 breakfast
event in May.
• ACT proposed to cut the benefits given to people addicted to drugs if they refuse treatment.
• The Greens promised five weeks of annual leave if elected.

1 News Verian Poll - 4

Question order and wording

Voting eligibility
“If a general election was held today, would you be eligible to vote?”

NOTE: Those not eligible to vote are excluded from the total sample size for this poll.

Likelihood to vote
“If a general election was held today, how likely would you be to vote?”

NOTE: Those claiming they would be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote have been included in the party
support analysis.

Introduction
“Under MMP you get two votes.

One is for a political party and is called a party vote.

The other is for your local MP and is called an electorate vote.”

Party vote
“Firstly thinking about the Party Vote which is for a political party.

Which political party would you vote for?”

IF DON’T KNOW

“Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”

NOTE: Those who indicated the party they would be most likely to vote for have been included in the party
support analysis, provided they said they would be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote.

Preferred Prime Minister

“Thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister?”

IF NO ONE

“Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”

Economic outlook
“And do you think during the next 12 months the economy will be in a better state than at present, or in a
worse state?”

1 News Verian Poll - 5

Party vote
“Which political party would you vote for?”

IF DON’T KNOW “Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”

25-29 Jan 4-8 Mar 20-24 8-12 July 12-16 Aug 9-12 Sep 16-19 Sep
2023 2023 May 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023
Don’t know 9% 10% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Refused 2% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4%
TOTAL 11% 13% 12% 12% 12% 10% 12%
Base (n=) 1,008 1,002 1,002 1,000 1,002 1,002 1,001

25-29 Jan 4-8 Mar 20-24 8-12 July 12-16 Aug 9-12 Sept 16-19 Sep
2023 2023 May 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023

National Party 37% 34% 37% 35% 37% 39% 37%

Labour Party 38% 36% 35% 33% 29% 28% 27%
Green Party 7% 11% 7% 10% 12% 10% 12%
ACT Party 10% 11% 11% 12% 13% 10% 12%
New Zealand First 2.3% 3.1% 3.2% 3.1% 3.7% 5% 5%

Te Pāti Māori 1.4% 2.6% 2.4% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9%

The Opportunities Party
(TOP) 1.1% 1.0% 1.4% 1.7% 0.6% 1.4% 1.4%
New Zealand Loyal - - - - - 0.4% 1.2%
Freedoms NZ nett 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7%
- Freedoms NZ - - - 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4%
/ Freedoms
New Zealand
- NZ Outdoors 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% - 0.3% - 0.2%
and Freedom
Party
- Vision New 0.3% - 0.2% - 0.1% - 0.2%
Zealand
Aotearoa Legalise 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4%
Cannabis Party
Animal Justice Party
Aotearoa New Zealand - - - - - 0.4% 0.3%
New Nation Party - - 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3%
NewZeal 0.1% 0.1% - 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
DemocracyNZ 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% - 0.3% 0.2%
New Conservatives
Party 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1%

Other 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% -

TOTAL 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%*
Base (n=) 822 787 805 803 792 824 807

Based on probed party supporters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.

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 1 NEWS Verian Poll
Party Vote
60%

50%

40% National

30%
Labour

20%

ACT
10% Green

NZ First
Māori
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

National Labour ACT Green Māori NZ First

2
Preferred Prime Minister
“Now thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime
Minister?” IF NO ONE: “Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”

20-24 12-16 16-19

25-29 4-8 Mar 8-12 July 9-12 Sep
May Aug Sep
Jan 2023 2023 2023 2023
2023 2023 2023
Chris Hipkins 23% 27% 25% 24% 21% 23% 23%
Christopher Luxon 22% 17% 18% 20% 20% 23% 23%
David Seymour 6% 6% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5%
Winston Peters 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4%
Nicola Willis 0.4% 0.9% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2%
Chlöe Swarbrick 2% 0.9% 2% 2% 3% 1% 2%
Jacinda Ardern 5% 3% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%
James Shaw 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% 1%
Rawiri Waititi 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8%
Marama Davidson 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 1% 0.4% 0.5%
Liz Gunn - - - - - - 0.5%
Grant Robertson 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%
John Key 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Raf Manji 0.3% - 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2%
Judith Collins 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% - 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Carmel Sepuloni - - 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Shane Reti - - 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Paul Goldsmith - - 0.1% - - - 0.1%
Nanaia Mahuta - 0.1% - - - 0.2% 0.1%
Kelvin Davis - - 0.3% - - - 0.1%

Other 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 3% 2%
Don't know 31% 33% 32% 32% 33% 30% 29%
None 3% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 3%
Refused 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 0.5% 1%
TOTAL 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%*
Base (n=) 1,008 1,002 1,002 1,000 1,002 1,002 1,001
Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.

1 News Verian Poll - 8

70 1 NEWS Verian Poll
Preferred Prime Minister
60

50

40

30

20

10

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
John Key David Shearer David Cunliffe Andrew Little
Jacinda Ardern Bill English Simon Bridges Judith Collins
David Seymour Christopher Luxon Chris Hipkins
Parliamentary seat entitlement
The following table shows the parliamentary seat entitlement based on the party vote results (to one decimal
place) from this poll. The calculation assumes that Rawiri Waititi holds the seat of Waiariki.

Number of seats

National Party 46

Labour Party 34

ACT Party 15

Green Party 15

New Zealand First 6

Te Pāti Māori 4

TOTAL 120

Method for calculating parliamentary seat entitlement

The St Laguë method is used by the Chief Electoral Officer at election time to convert the number of votes for
each party into the number of seats they get in Parliament.

It is applied to all the parties which are eligible, either by exceeding the 5% threshold or by winning at least
one electorate seat. More information about the St Laguë method can be obtained directly from the Electoral
Commission.

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