1 NEWS Verian Poll

(Note, the new poll name reflects Kantar Public’s new brand name)

7 – 10 October 2023
Attention: Television New Zealand

Release date: 11 October 2023

Contents
Contents .......................................................................................................................................................... 1

Methodology summary ................................................................................................................................... 2

Summary of results .......................................................................................................................................... 3

Key political events .......................................................................................................................................... 4

Question order and wording ............................................................................................................................ 5

Party vote ........................................................................................................................................................ 6

Preferred Prime Minister ................................................................................................................................. 3

Parliamentary seat entitlement ....................................................................................................................... 4

Method for calculating parliamentary seat entitlement .................................................................................. 4

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Methodology summary
CLIENT: Television New Zealand.

RELEASED: Wednesday 11 October 2023

POLL CONDUCTED: Interviewing took place from Saturday 7 October to Tuesday 10 October 2023.

MEDIAN FIELDWORK DAY: Sunday (50% of sample size target was reached on this day).

TARGET POPULATION: Eligible New Zealand voters.

INTERVIEW METHOD: Telephone and online. Conducted by CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone
Interviewing) and CAWI (Computer Assisted Web Interviewing).

SAMPLE SELECTION: Mobile: Random dialling of New Zealand mobile telephones using probability
sampling. Interviewers ask to speak to the main user of the phone who is aged 18
years or over. When required, multiple calls are made to reach that person. Voting
eligibility is determined at the first question.
Online: Interviews are collected by online panels, with quotas (or interviewing
targets) set to ensure the final sample is nationally representative. All respondents
are aged 18 or over. The panels used comply with the ESOMAR guidelines for online
research.

SAMPLE SIZE: n = 1,001 eligible voters, including n=501 polled via mobile phone and n=500 polled
online, using online panels.

SAMPLING ERROR: The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence
level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower
than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5%
have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9%-points and ±1.4%-points, respectively,
at the 95% confidence level.
These sampling errors assume a simple random sample of 1,001 eligible voters.

It should be noted that any demographic sub-group analysis (e.g., by age or gender)
will be based on a smaller set of interviews and so will have a wider sampling error.

WEIGHTING: The data have been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age,
gender, region, ethnic identification and education level.

REPORTED FIGURES: Reported bases are unweighted. For Party Support, percentages have been rounded
up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to
1 decimal place. For all other figures percentages have been rounded up or down to
whole numbers except those less than 1%, which are reported to 1 decimal place.
All sub-group differences listed for supplementary questions are statistically
significant at the 95% confidence level.

METHODOLOGY NOTES: The party vote question has been asked unprompted since February 1997.

Note: Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party
support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
This poll was conducted in accordance with the New Zealand Political Polling Code. Publication or reproduction
of the results must be acknowledged as the “1 NEWS Verian Poll”.

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Summary of results
PARTY SUPPORT – PARTY VOTE
National Party 37% Up 1% -point from 30 September to 3 October 2023
Labour Party 28% Up 2% -points
Green Party 14% Up 1% -point
ACT Party 9% Down 1% -point
New Zealand First 6% Steady
The Opportunities Party (TOP) 2% Steady
Te Pāti Māori 2% Steady
New Zealand Loyal 1% Steady
Freedoms New Zealand 1% Steady
NewZeal 1% Steady
DemocracyNZ 1% Up 1% -point

UNDECIDED VOTERS
Party Vote – Don’t know or refused 9% Down 1% -point from 30 September to 3 October 2023

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

Christopher Luxon 25% Down 1% -point from 30 September to 3 October 2023

Chris Hipkins 25% Steady

Winston Peters 5% Up 1%-point

David Seymour 4% Up 1% -point

Chlöe Swarbrick 2% Steady

James Shaw 2% Steady

Marama Davidson 2% Up 1% -point

Jacinda Ardern 1% Up 1% -point

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Optimism 41% Down 3% -points from 30 September to 3 October 2023
Pessimism 22% Steady

The results shown on this page, and the changes identified over time, are reported to the nearest whole
number. More detailed results are provided in the body of this report.

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Key political events
30th September – 7th October 2023
• Hipkins accused Luxon of putting up roadblocks to finding a new time for the final leaders
debate after Chris Hipkins tested positive for Covid and cancelled on the originally scheduled
debate.
• The government pledged to support the aerospace industry with $5.4 million to help build
hangar and runway on the Banks Peninsula.
• ACT unveiled medicines policy including one-week approvals if two similar countries have
approved the medication.
• Luxon disputed the findings by Goldman Sachs that indicated National’s policies to cut taxes
will increase inflation and suggested beneficiaries will be left worse off.
• National promised to introduce a minister for space, a prime minister's space prize for school
students, and two new sites for aerospace and space testing, if elected.
• National admitted only 3000 households will get the full $252 a fortnight tax. Labour claimed
that National has lied to the public with this claim based on their tax cut policy.
• Leaders of the Greens, ACT, New Zealand First and Te Pāti Māori went head-to-head on
October 5.
• The government announced six new marine reserves in the South Island
• National proposed to process offshore wind permits within a year.
• National raised the prospect of a hung parliament if ACT and National did not have the seats
to govern alone. Luxon said it would work with New Zealand First in a coalition, but it would
not be the party’s preference to do so.
• Minister of foreign affairs, Nania Mahuta criticised for a delay of condemnation of the deadly
attacks by Hamas on Israel.

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Question order and wording

Voting eligibility
“If a general election was held today, would you be eligible to vote?”

NOTE: Those not eligible to vote are excluded from the total sample size for this poll.

Likelihood to vote
“If a general election was held today, how likely would you be to vote?”

NOTE: Those claiming they would be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote have been included in the party
support analysis.

Introduction
“Under MMP you get two votes.

One is for a political party and is called a party vote.

The other is for your local MP and is called an electorate vote.”

Party vote
“Firstly thinking about the Party Vote which is for a political party.

Which political party would you vote for?”

IF DON’T KNOW

“Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”

NOTE: Those who indicated the party they would be most likely to vote for have been included in the party
support analysis, provided they said they would be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote.

Preferred Prime Minister

“Thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister?”

IF NO ONE

“Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”

Economic outlook
“And do you think during the next 12 months the economy will be in a better state than at present, or in a
worse state?”

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Party vote
“Which political party would you vote for?”

IF DON’T KNOW “Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”

8-12 July 12-16 Aug 9-12 Sep 16-19 Sep 23-26 Sep 30 Sep – 3 7 – 10 Oct
2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 Oct 2023 2023
Don’t know 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 5%

Refused 3% 4% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4%

TOTAL 12% 12% 10% 12% 11% 10% 9%

Base (n=) 1,000 1,002 1,002 1,001 1,002 1,000 1,001

8-12 July 12-16 Aug 9-12 Sept 16-19 Sep 23-26 Sep 30 Sep – 3 7 – 10 Oct
2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 Oct 2023 2023

National Party 35% 37% 39% 37% 36% 36% 37%

Labour Party 33% 29% 28% 27% 26% 26% 28%
Green Party 10% 12% 10% 12% 13% 13% 14%
ACT Party 12% 13% 10% 12% 12% 10% 9%
New Zealand First 3.1% 3.7% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6%
The Opportunities 1.7% 0.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% 2.3%
Party (TOP)
Te Pāti Māori 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% 1.9% 2.2% 1.7%
New Zealand Loyal - - 0.4% 1.2% 0.5% 1.2% 1.2%
Freedoms New 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 1.0% 0.6%
Zealand nett
− Freedoms 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% - 0.6% 0.4%
New Zealand
− Vision New - 0.1% - 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Zealand
− NZ Outdoors - 0.3% - 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Party
NewZeal 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5%
DemocracyNZ 0.6% - 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
Aotearoa Legalise 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 1.1% 0.3%
Cannabis Party
Women's Rights Party - - 0.2% - 0.5% 0.1% 0.2%

Other 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% - - - 0.1%

TOTAL 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%*
Base (n=) 803 792 824 807 813 819

Based on probed party supporters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.

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 1 NEWS Verian Poll
Party Vote
60%

50%

40%
National

30%
Labour

20%

Green
10% ACT
NZ First
Māori
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

National Labour ACT Green Māori NZ First

2
Preferred Prime Minister
“Now thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister?” IF NO
ONE: “Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”

30 Sep –
8-12 July 12-16 Aug 9-12 Sep 16-19 Sep 23-26 Sep 7 – 10 Oct
3 Oct
2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023
2023
Christopher Luxon 20% 20% 23% 23% 23% 26% 25%
Chris Hipkins 24% 21% 23% 23% 23% 25% 25%
Winston Peters 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5%
David Seymour 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 3% 4%
Chlöe Swarbrick 2% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2%
James Shaw 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% 1% 1% 2% 2%
Marama Davidson 0.6% 1% 0.4% 0.5% 2% 0.8% 2%
Jacinda Ardern 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0.4% 0.5%
Rawiri Waititi 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4%
Nicola Willis 2% 2% 1% 2% 0.8% 1% 0.4%
Grant Robertson 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4%
Liz Gunn - - - 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
John Key 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Erica Stanford - - - - 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Chris Bishop 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% - 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Judith Collins - 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% - - 0.2%
Shane Reti 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% - 0.1% 0.2%
Leighton Baker 0.1% - - - 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Matt King - - 0.1% - - 0.1% 0.1%
Carmel Sepuloni 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% - 0.2% 0.1%
Hamish Walker - - - - - - 0.1%
Raf Manji 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%

Other 1% 1% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1%
Don't know 32% 33% 30% 29% 28% 26% 32%
None 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4%
Refused 2% 1% 0.5% 1% 2% 1% 2%
TOTAL 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%*
Base (n=) 1,000 1,002 1,002 1,001 1,002 1,000
Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.
Parliamentary seat entitlement
The following table shows the parliamentary seat entitlement based on the party vote results (to one decimal
place) from this poll. The calculation assumes that Rawiri Waititi holds the seat of Waiariki.

Number of seats

National Party 47

Labour Party 35

Green Party 17

ACT Party 11

New Zealand First 8

Te Pāti Māori 2

TOTAL 120

Method for calculating parliamentary seat entitlement

The St Laguë method is used by the Chief Electoral Officer at election time to convert the number of votes for
each party into the number of seats they get in Parliament.

It is applied to all the parties which are eligible, either by exceeding the 5% threshold or by winning at least
one electorate seat. More information about the St Laguë method can be obtained directly from the Electoral
Commission.

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