1 NEWS Kantar Public Poll

30 July - 3 August 2022

Attention: Television New Zealand

Contact: (04) 913-3000

Release date: Monday 8 August 2022

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Ph: (04) 913-3000

www.kantarpublic.com/nz
Contents
Contents .......................................................................................................................................................... 1

Methodology summary ................................................................................................................................... 2

Summary of results .......................................................................................................................................... 3

Key political events .......................................................................................................................................... 4

Question order and wording ............................................................................................................................ 5

Party vote ........................................................................................................................................................ 6

Preferred Prime Minister ................................................................................................................................. 8

Parliamentary seat entitlement ..................................................................................................................... 10

Method for calculating parliamentary seat entitlement ................................................................................ 10

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Methodology summary
CLIENT: Television New Zealand.

RELEASED: Monday 8 August 2022

POLL CONDUCTED: Interviewing took place from Saturday 30 July to Wednesday 3 August 2022.

MEDIAN FIELDWORK DAY: Sunday (50% of sample size target was reached on this day).

TARGET POPULATION: Eligible New Zealand voters.

INTERVIEW METHOD: Telephone and online. Conducted by CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone
Interviewing) and CAWI (Computer Assisted Web Interviewing).

SAMPLE SELECTION: Mobile: Random dialling of New Zealand mobile telephones using probability
sampling. Interviewers ask to speak to the main user of the phone who is aged 18
years or over. When required, multiple calls are made to reach that person. Voting
eligibility is determined at the first question.
Online: Interviews are collected by online panels, with quotas (or interviewing
targets) set to ensure the final sample is nationally representative. All respondents
are aged 18 or over. The panels used comply with the ESOMAR guidelines for online
research.

SAMPLE SIZE: n = 1,023 eligible voters, including n=504 polled via mobile phone and n=519 polled
online, using online panels.

SAMPLING ERROR: The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence
level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower
than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5%
have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9%-points and ±1.4%-points, respectively,
at the 95% confidence level.
These sampling errors assume a simple random sample of 1,000 eligible voters.

It should be noted that any demographic sub-group analysis (e.g., by age or gender)
will be based on a smaller set of interviews and so will have a wider sampling error.

WEIGHTING: The data have been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age,
gender, region, ethnic identification and education level.

REPORTED FIGURES: Reported bases are unweighted. For Party Support, percentages have been rounded
up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to
1 decimal place. For all other figures percentages have been rounded up or down to
whole numbers except those less than 1%, which are reported to 1 decimal place.
All sub-group differences listed for supplementary questions are statistically
significant at the 95% confidence level.

METHODOLOGY NOTES: The party vote question has been asked unprompted since February 1997.

Note: Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party
support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
This poll was conducted in accordance with the New Zealand Political Polling Code. Publication or reproduction
of the results must be acknowledged as the “1 NEWS Kantar Public Poll”.

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Summary of results
PARTY SUPPORT – PARTY VOTE
National Party 37% Down 2% points from 21 to 25 May 2022
Labour Party 33% Down 2%-points
ACT 11% Up 4%-points
Green Party 9% Down 1%-point
New Zealand First 3% Up 2%-points
Te Pāti Māori / Māori Party 2% Steady
The Opportunities Party (TOP) 2% Steady
Vision New Zealand 1% Up 1%-point
New Conservative 1% Steady
Democrats for Social Credit 1% Up 1%-point

UNDECIDED VOTERS
Party Vote – Don’t know or refused 11% Steady from 21 to 25 May 2022

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

Jacinda Ardern 30% Down 3%-points from 21 to 25 May 2022
Christopher Luxon 22% Down 3%-points
David Seymour 5% Up 2%-points
Winston Peters 2% Up 1%-point
Chlöe Swarbrick 1% Down 1%-point

The results shown on this page, and the changes identified over time, are reported to the nearest whole
number. More detailed results are provided in the body of this report.

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Key political events
26th May – 3rd August 2022
• On June 1, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern met with President Biden and signed a defence cooperation
agreement centred around the Pacific. Tensions are on the rise in the region as China’s foreign
minister Wang Yi toured several Pacific Islands and signed a security agreement with the Solomon
Islands. National Leader Christopher Luxon criticised the Government for not showing up on
international relations.

• On June 9, Prime Ministers Jacinda Ardern and Anthony Albanese met after the Australian Labor Party
secured victory in the Australian election. Anthony Albanese stated 501 deportations to New Zealand
will continue but their government will examine how it is implemented.

• The Government reshuffled Cabinet positions on June 13, Speaker of the House Trevor Mallard and
MP Kris Faafoi resigned from their positions while Poto Williams was stripped of her portfolios,
namely the Police portfolio.

• A GIB shortage has stalled building developments and is causing a crisis in the construction sector. On
June 21, Labour MP Megan Woods set up a ministerial taskforce to solve the issue. The National Party
and ACT Party suggested that urgent legislation should be passed to resolve the issue instead.

• On June 24, New Zealand celebrated its newest public holiday: Matariki. The Prime Minister hailed
the day as the first authentically Māori public holiday.

• On the June 26, National MP Simon O’Connor posted on social media celebrating the US Supreme
Court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade and was subsequently asked to remove the post by National
Leader Christopher Luxon. The National party stated it is committed to not changing abortion law in
New Zealand.

• Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern travelled to Europe for the NATO summit and signed an EU trade deal
on 1 July.

• On July 6, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister David Clark introduced a new Grocery
Commissioner for the supermarket sector to ensure food prices are fair on consumers.

• On July 11, after returning from an international trip to Singapore and Ireland, National Leader
Christopher Luxon criticised the traffic light system for being too complex, adding that the rest of the
world has moved on from COVID-19. Comments came as New Zealand entered its second wave of
COVID-19 cases with at least 10,000 new cases per day.

• On July 13, the Government announced a suite of new measures to tackle gang violence including a
new criminal offence to discharge a firearm with intent to intimidate. The National Party previously
proposed stricter measures such as banning gang patches in public (June 11).

• On July 17, the Government announced an extension for the fuel tax cut and half price public
transport to continue to the start of 2023.

• On July 23, Co-leader of the Green Party, James Shaw was ejected from party leadership by an
internal party vote and is now forced to contend for the position for the upcoming election.

• The first of three cost of living payments arrived for just over 1.3 million of the 2.1 million people
eligible on August 1. National calls for investigation into why some payments went to those who
moved overseas.

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Question order and wording

Voting eligibility
“If a general election was held today, would you be eligible to vote?”

NOTE: Those not eligible to vote are excluded from the total sample size for this poll.

Likelihood to vote
“If a general election was held today, how likely would you be to vote?”

NOTE: Those claiming they would be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote have been included in the party
support analysis.

Introduction
“Under MMP you get two votes.

One is for a political party and is called a party vote.

The other is for your local MP and is called an electorate vote.”

Party vote
“Firstly thinking about the Party Vote which is for a political party.

Which political party would you vote for?”

IF DON’T KNOW

“Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”

NOTE: Those who indicated the party they would be most likely to vote for have been included in the party
support analysis, provided they said they would be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote.

Preferred Prime Minister

“Thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister?”

IF NO ONE

“Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”

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Party vote
“Which political party would you vote for?”

IF DON’T KNOW “Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”

9-13 Mar 22-26 22-26 Sep 6-10 Nov 22-26 Jan 5-8 Mar 21-25 30 Jul-3
2021 May 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 May 2022 Aug 2022
Don’t know 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 9% 8%
Refused 4% 2% 3% 2% 4% 2% 2% 3%
TOTAL 8% 8% 9% 9% 11% 10% 11% 11%
Base (n=) 1,006 1,002 1,001 1,001 1,000 1,000 1,002 1,023

9-13 Mar 22-26 22-26 Sep 6-10 Nov 22-26 Jan 5-8 Mar 21-25 May 30 Jul-3
2021 May 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 Aug 2022

National Party 27% 29% 26% 28% 32% 39% 39% 37%
Labour Party 49% 46% 43% 41% 40% 37% 35% 33%
ACT Party 8% 9% 14% 14% 11% 8% 7% 11%
Green Party 9% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 10% 9%
New Zealand
1.8% 1.2% 2.5% 3.3% 1.8% 2.2% 1.3% 2.6%
First
Māori Party 1.5% 1.8% 2.1% 0.9% 1.6% 2.3% 1.9% 2.3%
The
Opportunities 1.2% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.6% 1.3% 1.7% 1.9%
Party
Vision New
0.1% - 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% - 0.4% 0.8%
Zealand
New
1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 1.2% 0.7%
Conservative
Social Credit - 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% - - 0.5% 0.5%
Aotearoa
Legalise
0.4% - 0.3% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
Cannabis
Party
Heartland NZ - - 0.1% 0.4% - 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
NZ Outdoors
0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% -
Party

TEA Party - 0.2% - - - 0.1% 0.2% -

ONE Party 0.1% - - - 0.1% - 0.2% -

Other - 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.9% 0.7%

TOTAL 100%* 100% 100%* 100% 100% 100%* 100%* 100%*
Base (n=) 834 857 844 847 817 832 826 837
Based on probed party supporters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.

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 1 NEWS Kantar Public Poll

abour

Na onal

T
reen

Māori
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 22

Na onal abour CT reen Māori

Preferred Prime Minister
“Now thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime
Minister?” IF NO ONE: “Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”
22-26
9-13 Mar 22-26 6-10 Nov 22-26 Jan 5-8 Mar 21-25 30 Jul-3
May
2021 Sep 2021 2021 2022 2022 May 2022 Aug 2022
2021
Jacinda Ardern 43% 48% 44% 39% 35% 34% 33% 30%
Christopher Luxon 2% 3% 3% 4% 17% 25% 25% 22%
David Seymour 4% 6% 11% 11% 6% 5% 3% 5%
Winston Peters 0.7% 1% 0.7% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2%
Chlöe Swarbrick 0.8% 2% 0.8% 2% 1% 0.8% 2% 1%
Nicola Willis - - - - - - 0.4% 0.9%
John Key 0.7% 1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4%
Marama Davidson 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
Judith Collins 8% 9% 5% 5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2%
Grant Robertson 0.5% - 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Chris Bishop - 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% - 0.1% 0.2%
Rawiri Waititi - 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
James Shaw 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Nanaia Mahuta 0.1% 0.1% - 0..1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Chris Hipkins - - 0.1% - 0.1% 0.3% - 0.2%
Mark Mitchell 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% - 0.2% 0.1%
David Shearer - - - - - - - 0.1%
Phil Twyford - 0.1% 0.3% - - 0.4% - 0.1%
Gareth Morgan - - - - - - - 0.1%
Helen Clark 0.1% - 0.1% 0.1% - 0.1% - 0.1%
Phil Goff - - - - - - - 0.1%
Raf Manji - - - - - - 0.3% -
Andrew Bayley - - - - - - 0.3% -
Leighton Baker - 0.1% - - 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% -
Andrew Little - - - - - - 0.2% -
Simon Bridges 1% 2% 2% 1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% -
Pita Sharples - - - - - - 0.1% -
Shane Reti 0.1% - 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% -
Stuart Nash - - - - 0.1% - 0.1% -
Steven Joyce - - 0.1% - 0.1% - 0.1% -

Other 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2%
Don’t know 27% 19% 21% 26% 28% 27% 28% 31%
None 2% 3% 4% 3% 3% 1% 1% 3%
Refused 6% 1% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
TOTAL 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%*
Base (n=) 1,006 1,002 1,001 1,001 1,000 1,000 1002 1,023
Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.

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 1 NEWS Kantar Public Poll

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 22

John ey David Shearer David Cunli e ndrew i le Jacinda rdern

ill nglish Simon ridges Judith Collins David Seymour Christopher u on

Parliamentary seat entitlement
The following table shows the parliamentary seat entitlement according to the results reported in this poll. The
calculation assumes that Rawiri Waititi holds the seat of Waiariki.

Number of seats

National Party 48

Labour Party 44

ACT Party 14

Green Party 11

Māori Party 3

TOTAL 120

Method for calculating parliamentary seat entitlement

The St Laguë method is used by the Chief Electoral Officer at election time to convert the number of votes for
each party into the number of seats they get in Parliament.

It is applied to all the parties which are eligible, either by exceeding the 5% threshold or by winning at least
one electorate seat. More information about the St Laguë method can be obtained directly from the Electoral
Commission.

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