Public Sector Efficiency - Evidence For Latin America
Public Sector Efficiency - Evidence For Latin America
Public Sector Efficiency - Evidence For Latin America
Department of Economics
WORKING PAPERS
ISSN Nº 0874-4548
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May 2013
Abstract
We compute Public Sector Performance (PSP) and Public Sector Efficiency (PSE) indicators and
Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) efficiency scores for a sample of twenty-three Latin
American and Caribbean Countries (LAC) to measure efficiency of public spending for the
period 2001-2010. Our results show that the PSE is inversely correlated with the size of the
government, while the efficiency frontier is essentially defined by Chile, Guatemala, and Peru.
Moreover, on average, output quantities could theoretically be proportionally increased by 19
percent with the same level of inputs. In addition, the performed Tobit analysis suggests that
more transparency and regulatory quality improve the efficiency scores, while more transparency
and control of corruption increase output-oriented efficiency.
*
The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Inter-
American Development Bank, its Board of Directors, or the countries they represent, nor the views of the ECB or
the Eurosystem.
$
ISEG/TULisbon – Technical University of Lisbon, School of Economics and Management, Department of
Economics; UECE – Research Unit on Complexity and Economics, R. Miguel Lupi 20, 1249-078 Lisbon, Portugal,
email: aafonso@iseg.utl.pt. UECE is supported by Fundacão para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foundation
for Science and Technology) through the project PEst-OE/EGE/UI0436/2011. European Central Bank, Directorate
General Economics, Kaiserstraße 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
#
Inter-American Development Bank, 1300 New York Avenue Northwest Washington, DC 20577, USA, emails:
almar@iadb.org; emmamo@iadb.org.
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Contents
1. Introduction....................................................................................................................... 3
2. Related literature ............................................................................................................... 4
3. Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 5
3.1. Public sector performance ........................................................................................... 5
3.2. Public sector efficiency ............................................................................................... 8
3.3. DEA............................................................................................................................ 9
4. Empirical analysis ........................................................................................................... 12
4.1. Data and stylized facts............................................................................................... 12
4.2. Computing the PSP index .......................................................................................... 14
4.3. Computing PSE ......................................................................................................... 19
4.4. DEA results............................................................................................................... 22
4.5. Non-discretionary factors .......................................................................................... 30
5. Conclusions ..................................................................................................................... 33
Appendix ............................................................................................................................ 38
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1. Introduction
The optimal size of public spending is a difficult issue to address both empirically and
theoretically. In practice, however, policymakers must decide period by period on the level of
public expenditure to be exerted in order to maximize social welfare (assuming governments are
benevolent). Expenditure levels greatly vary from country to country and the effect of additional
spending on marginal welfare gains is still open for debate. Notwithstanding, the literature has
provided over the years evidence in support to the idea that above certain threshold, benefits
from larger public spending, measured by improvements in key social and economic indicators,
tend to decline.
In early works Tanzi and Schuknecht (1997, 2000) used a macro approach to identify a
relationship between higher public spending and higher social welfare in a sample of eighteen
industrialized economies. The authors did not find evidence of higher benefits in countries with
higher public spending given that countries with lower levels of public spending had socio-
economic indicators as good as their counterparts, if not better. In more recent contributions,
Afonso, Schuknecht, and Tanzi (2005, 2010a) assess the outcome of public policies and its
relationship to the resources employed to measure government performance and efficiency
through the concepts of Public Sector Performance (PSP) and Public Sector Efficiency (PSE)
initially applied to a sample of twenty-three industrialized OCDE countries and later on extended
to a group of developed economies. Their overall conclusion is that small governments obtain
better indicators than big governments and that lean public sectors tend to be more efficient.
The renovated interest of academics, policy makers, and international organizations on
the analysis and quantification of the efficiency of public spending at the aggregate level has
been recently motivated by the current challenging global conditions. The adverse position often
faced by governments (increasing budgetary pressures and narrowing margins of action to
significantly raise tax revenue) and the costly consequences of fiscal imbalances prompted by
excessive accumulation of government debt to finance high spending levels, experienced by a
handful of countries in recent past decades, has turned the attention to the ability of governments
to achieve public policy outcomes employing the least possible amount of resources more
relevant in recent times.1 Unfortunately, the literature on aggregate public sector efficiency is not
1
In a numerical exercise with a calibrated model, Afonso and Gaspar (2007) find that indirect costs, associated with
excess burden, amplify the cost of inefficiency by between 20 percent and 30 percent.
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abundant and international comparisons of government performance are largely scarce due to
data unavailability, limiting the analysis of the empirics of the optimality of public spending.
This paper contributes to the literature by extending the analysis of Afonso et al. (2005,
2010a), based on the computation of the Public Sector Performance (PSP) and Public Sector
Efficiency (PSE) indicators and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), applied to a sample of
twenty-three Latin American and Caribbean Countries (LAC) to measure efficiency of public
spending for the period 2001-2010. We also assess the relevance of non-discretionary factors for
public sector efficiency via censored Tobit regressions.
To the best of our knowledge this is the first attempt in the literature to quantify
government performance and efficiency in the Latin American region. Our results show that the
size of the government is inversely correlated with efficiency scores, while the efficiency frontier
is essentially defined by Chile, Guatemala, and Peru. Moreover, on average, output quantities
could theoretically be proportionally increased by 19 percent with the same level of inputs.
Additionally, a Tobit analysis shows that more transparency and regulatory quality improve the
efficiency scores, while further transparency and control of corruption increase output-oriented
efficiency.
The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section two reviews the related
literature. Section three presents the methodology. Section four reports and discusses our dataset,
and empirical results. Section five concludes.
2. Related literature
Public sector efficiency analysis has its precedent on the literature quantifying productive
efficiency of firms or decision making units of diverse nature. For instance, Cherchye and Post
(2001) address efficiency of electricity generating plants, Burgess and Wilson (1998) of
hospitals, and Wheelock and Wilson (2003) of banking institutions. Afonso and Santos (2008)
assess efficiency of Portuguese Universities and St. Aubyn et al. (2009) of Universities in the
European Union. Other examples are Eugène (2008) for the relative efficiency of Belgian
general government as provider of public order and safety, in addition to health care and
education services, while St. Aubyn (2008) offers a review of the literature on law and order
(police, prison and judicial systems) efficiency measurement and Afonso et al. (201b) assess the
efficiency of public spending in redistributing income.
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In the case of public sector performance, the vast majority of the related literature has
centered the analysis of public spending efficiency in health and education across countries.
Gupta and Verhoeven (2001) measure the efficiency of government expenditure on education
and health in a group of African countries employing the Free Disposable Hull (FDH) method.
Herrera and Pang (2005) quantify efficiency in both sectors using a panel of 160 countries
employing the FDH and the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Afonso and Aubyn (2005,
2006) assess efficiency of spending in education and health in OCDE countries utilizing both
FDH and DEA and extend their analysis by using bootstrap methods in subsequent works
(Afonso, and St. Aubyn, 2006a, b, 2011). Other contributions to the assessment of education
spending efficiency are provided by Clements (2002) for the European Union, and St. Aubyn
(2003) and Sutherland, Price, Joumard, and Nicq (2007) for OCDE countries. Efficiency of the
health sector is addressed by Evans, Tandon, Murray and Lauer (2000), and Joumard, Hoeller,
André, Nicq (2010).
A smaller strand of the literature has focused on the analysis of efficiency of public
expenditure at the subnational or aggregate level. Notable examples are Van den Eeckhaut,
Tulkens and Jamar (1993) for the assessment of efficiency of public spending in Belgian
municipalities, De Borger and Kerstens (1996) for Belgian local governments, Afonso and
Fernandes (2006, 2008) for Portuguese municipalities, Afonso and Scaglioni (2007) for Italian
regions, and Geys, Heinemann, and Kalb (2010) for German municipalities. There are, however,
fewer contributions to the analysis of aggregate public sector spending efficiency, with the
notable exception of Afonso et al. (2005, 2010a).
3. Methodology
3.1. Public sector performance
Nonparametric methods, particularly the Data Envelopment Analysis, and the Free
Disposal Hull in earlier works, have become the predominant approach to assess relative
efficiency of public spending across countries and within sectors. The DEA methodology
developed by Farrell (1957) can be used to determine efficiency by comparing actual spending
with the minimum necessary spending to produce the same outcome (input approach). Such a
minimum is defined by the efficiency frontier computed from sample data using linear
programming methods assuming convexity of the production set. Alternatively, relative
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efficiency can be defined by determining the highest possible level of output to be produced for a
given level of spending (output-oriented approach). A similar analysis can be conducted
employing the Free Disposable Hull (FDH) methodology proposed by Deprins, Simar, and
Tulkens (1984) which assumes free-disposability of resources in the production process.
Limitations of both methods, sensitivity to sample variability, presence of outliers, and the
quality of data in the case of the DEA, and the overestimation of efficient decision making units
in the case of the FDH (Herrera and Pang, 2005) make desirable a complementary approach. Due
to that, we employ the concept of PSP to measure government performance in LAC for 2001-
2010 and quantify the efficiency of such public sector activities computing PSE and DEA scores
using total public spending-to-GDP ratios as input and PSP scores as output.
Public sector performance as defined by Afonso, Schuknecht, and Tanzi (AST from now
on) is assessed by constructing composite indicators based on observable socio-economic
variables that are assumed to be the output of pursued public policies. Specifically, the PSP for
country with areas of government activity is determined by:
∑ ∑ ( ) ( )
where is the weight applied to the jth government activity and ( ) is a function of k
observable socio-economic indicators. Following AST seminal work we use two groups of
indicators to define the PSP composite indicator as Figure 1 shows.
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PSP
Corruption
Red Tape
Distribution Gini Index
Quality of
Administration
Judiciary
Stability of GDP
Shadow Growth (coefficient of
Economy Stability variation)
The first group comprises outcomes derived from government activities as public
administrator as well as provider of public services such as education, health and infrastructure.
AST refer to this subset of indicators as “opportunity” indicators alluding to the role of the
government as promoter of equal opportunities in the market place.
The second group is composed of outcome indicators of government activities in terms of
allocation, distribution, and stabilization functions as defined by Musgrave. Each group of
indicators includes sub-indicators determined by the average value of the corresponding output
variables. For instance, government performance as public administrator is defined by the
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average value of outcome indicators for corruption, burden of regulation (red tape),
independence of the judiciary system, and the size of the informal economy. The rationale
behind these indicators is the application of the rule of law, enforcement of contracts, defense of
property rights and operability of well-functioning markets promoted by the state.
The performance of the government as supplier of public goods and services is limited to
the provision of education, health, and public infrastructure. As for education we focus on
indicators of the quality of education (specifically on math and science) and secondary school
enrolment rates. For health we consider the traditional output indicators of infant mortality and
life expectancy. As for the provision of infrastructure we center our attention on the overall
quality of public infrastructure.
Musgravian sub-indicators are defined in a similar fashion. We use Gini coefficients as
the output indicator for income distribution; price stability (inflation rates) and variability of
GDP growth rates for the stability sub-indicator; and GDP per capita, unemployment, and GDP
growth rates for economic performance. In the case of the economic variables we use 10-year
averages to focus on structural changes instead of yearly fluctuations. The rest of the variables
employed correspond to 2010 or the closest available year.
To obtain composite PSP indicators for each country we initially assign equal weights to
each sub-indicator (in section 4 we also present results for PSP indicators employing different
weights). PSP scores for each sub-indicator are computed as the average of the corresponding
outcome variables, each one of them previously normalized by its sample mean. The total PSP
indicator for each country is then obtained by averaging the values of all PSP scores for each
sub-indicator. To interpret results, PSP scores for each country are then compared to the sample
average PSP score, which by constructions has a value of one. Hence, countries with PSP scores
in excess of one are seen as good performers, as opposed to countries with PSP values below the
mean.
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performance. This is, for each country with areas of government activity
and weight applied to the jth activity the PSE is defined by:
∑ ∑ ( )
3.3. DEA
Furthermore, we also compute DEA efficiency scores, using notably our PSP composite
indicator as an output measure. The DEA methodology, due to Farrell’s (1957) and Charnes,
Cooper and Rhodes (1978), assumes the existence of a convex production frontier. The
production frontier in the DEA approach is constructed using linear programming methods. The
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term “envelopment” stems from the fact that the production frontier envelops the set of
observations.2
The general relationship that we consider is given by the following function for each
country i:
Yi f ( X i ) , i=1,…,n. (3)
where we have Yi – PSP, our output measure; Xi – the relevant input in country i (government
spending as a ratio of GDP). If Yi f ( X i ) , then country i exhibits inefficiency. For the observed
input levels, the actual output is smaller than the best attainable one and inefficiency can be
measured by computing the distance to the theoretical efficiency frontier.
For an output-oriented specification, suppose there are k inputs and m outputs for n
Decision Management Units (DMUs). For the i-th DMU, yi is the column vector of the outputs
and xi is the column vector of the inputs. We can define X as the (k n) input matrix and Y as the
(m n) output matrix. For a given i-th DMU the DEA model is: 3
Max ,
s. to yi Y 0
xi X 0 (4)
n1' 1
0
In (4), is a scalar (that satisfies 1/ 1), more specifically it is the efficiency score that
measures technical efficiency. It measures the distance between a country and the efficiency
frontier, defined as a linear combination of the best practice observations. With 1/ <1, the
country is inside the frontier (i.e. it is inefficient), while 1 implies that the country is on the
frontier (i.e. it is efficient).
The vector of constants (n 1) measures the weights used to compute the location of an
inefficient DMU if it were to become efficient, and n1 is an n-dimensional vector of ones. The
2
See Coelli et al. (1998) and Thanassoulis (2001).
3
We simply present here the equivalent envelopment form, derived by Charnes et al. (1978), using the duality
property of the multiplier form of the original programming model.
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restriction n1' 1 imposes convexity of the frontier, accounting for variable returns to scale.
Problem (4) has to be solved for each of the n DMUs in order to obtain the n efficiency scores.
We illustrate in Figure 2 a DEA production possibility frontier in the one input-one
output case. For instance, countries A, B and C are efficient with output scores equal to 1. On the
other hand, country D is not efficient, since its score [d2/(d1+d2)] is below unity.
Output
A d2
Production D
Possibility
Frontier
d1
Input
The purpose of an input-oriented study is to evaluate by how much input quantity can be
proportionally reduced without changing the output quantities. Alternatively, and by computing
output-oriented measures, one could also try to assess how much output quantities can be
proportionally increased without changing the input quantities used. The two measures provide
the same results under constant returns to scale but give different values under variable returns to
scale. Nevertheless, both output and input-oriented models will identify the same set of
efficient/inefficient countries.
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4. Empirical analysis
4.1. Data and stylized facts
The data set compiled for this study includes twenty Latin American and three Caribbean
countries. 4 We use averages for the period 2001-2010, and some descriptive statistics are
provided in Tables A1 and A2 in the Appendix, for the variables used in the construction of the
Public Sector Performance index, in the next section.
The composition and size of the sample was determined by availability of data needed to
compute the PSP and PSE indicators. Table 1 shows the 2001-2010 average (or within this
period according to data availability) for different expenditure categories as shares of GDP for
the general government level when available and for the central government otherwise. Total
expenditure ranges from 14 to 35 percent of GDP, in line with levels typically spent by
developing countries (Herrera and Pang, 2005). Roughly nine out of the twenty-three countries
spend under 25 percent of GDP (Guatemala, Dominican Republic, Peru, El Salvador, Paraguay,
Chile, Mexico, Costa Rica, and Panama), six between 26 and 30 percent of GDP (Ecuador,
Honduras, Colombia, Nicaragua, Trinidad and Tobago, and Suriname), and eight over 30 percent
of GDP (Belize, Guyana, Uruguay, Bolivia, Jamaica, Argentina, Venezuela, and Brazil). We will
refer to countries in the first group as small governments, countries in the second group as
medium-size governments, and countries in the third group as large governments.
Interestingly, on average, small governments have total expenditure ratios of 20 percent
of GDP, medium governments of 28 percent of GDP, while large governments spend 33 percent
of GDP (sixty percent more than small governments and seventeen percent more than medium-
size governments).
4
Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador,
Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Trinidad and
Tobago, Uruguay, Venezuela RB.
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Transfers
Total Government Interest Public
and
Spending Consumption Subsidies Payments Investment Health Education
Argentina 33.68 12.97 11.39 6.37 2.94 4.91 4.63
Belize 30.32 14.95 3.43 5.03 7.47 2.49 5.62
Bolivia 32.58 11.85 7.58 2.4 7.53 3.48 6.21
Brazil 34.54 20.18 6.86 3.46 1.88 3.44 4.67
Chile 21.84 7.62 10.78 0.78 2.34 3.18 3.81
Colombia 27.6 9.81 8.23 3.68 5.87 5.31 4.17
Costa Rica 24.66 12.54 6.56 3.86 1.54 5.79 5.06
Dominican
17.03 5.97 4.82 1.47 3.02 1.97 2.01
Republic
Ecuador 27.37 11.29 7 2.23 7.61 2.15 0.98
El Salvador 19.23 9.98 4.61 2.11 2.53 3.68 3
Guatemala 14.2 5.07 3.14 1.42 1.52 2.3 3.07
Guyana 30.77 12.33 5.23 2.91 10.2 5.89 5.95
Honduras 27.4 16.05 3.04 1.26 4.41 3.62
Jamaica 32.84 14.71 13.62 2.57 2.46 5.26
Mexico 23.5 11.1 4.68 2.98 2.54 2.66 5.04
Nicaragua 27.62 11.18 8.69 1.88 4.57 4.55 3.12
Panama 24.91 12.98 4.64 3.8 4.08 5.18 4.16
Paraguay 18.04 9.93 3.96 0.88 2.92 2.7 4.52
Peru 19.11 9.89 4.97 1.79 1.93 2.64 2.76
Suriname 28.58 17.61 5.52 1.35 3.96 3.59
Trinidad and
27.75 9.01 12.23 2.83 3.9 2.48 4.2
Tobago
Uruguay 32.34 12.01 12.43 3.88 4.02 4.81 2.55
Venezuela 33.88 12.41 7.69 3.05 10.73 2.38 3.68
Average 26.51 11.8 6.7 3.18 4.35 3.55 4.02
Maximum 34.54 20.18 12.43 13.62 10.73 5.89 6.21
Minimum 14.2 5.07 3.04 0.78 1.52 1.97 0.98
Total Spending, % of GDP, Averages
<=25% 20.28 9.45 5.35 2.12 2.49 3.34 3.71
>=26% and <=30% 27.72 12.49 7.45 2.21 5.05 3.62 3.12
>30% 32.62 13.92 7.8 5.09 6.4 3.73 4.82
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), WB World Development Indicators (WDI), and CEPAL.
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large governments spend on average forty-five percent more than the smallest governments, but
only five percent more than medium governments. On the other hand, average interest payments
are virtually identical between small and medium size governments, while countries with large
governments spend 1.4 times more than their counterparts. Public investment is also increasing
in the size of the government. On average, large governments spend twenty-six percent more on
investment than medium governments and 1.5 times more than small governments.
Differences in health and education spending are much less stressed by the size of
governments, as opposed to current expenditures. We found striking similar levels of public
spending in health between the three sizes of governments. On average large and medium
governments spend 3.6 percent of GDP, while small governments spend 3.3 percent of GDP. In
education, large governments spend on average 4.8 percent of GDP, followed by small
governments with 3.7 percent of GDP and medium-sized governments with 3.1 percent of GDP.
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Moreover, we can also see that PSP is inversely correlated with the size of the
government, and the same applies to the sub-indicator so-called Musgravian PSP. Recall that we
are labeling countries in terms of the size of the government, as small, medium-size, or large
governments, depending respectively on the ratio of government spending-to-GDP being under
25 percent, between 26 and 30 percent, or over 30 percent.
In addition, we also computed the PSP indicators replacing the variable “Quality of Math
and Science” by the variable “Literacy Rate”, since such indicator is more relevant for this
sample country, than, for instance, for OECD countries. Still, such results, as reported in Table 3
show a rather similar picture.
We also computed PSP scores for each model assigning different weights to different
sub-indicators. In particular, we assigned the least possible equal weight to administrative sub-
indicators whose output indicators are mostly derived from surveys (Eugène, 2008) and placing a
higher weight on economic variables. Therefore, we assigned ¾ of the weight to Musgravian
sub-indicators and ¼ to opportunity sub-indicators (1/16 each). Results are very similar to the
ones obtained applying equal weights. Most countries that obtained PSP scores above the
average score of one the first time are also seen as good performers in the second exercise with
the exception of Uruguay and El Salvador whose scores were close to the cut-off value of one.
Otherwise, the list of countries with PSP scores below one stayed the same as can be observed in
tables 2 and 3.
Finally, in an effort to measure public sector performance across time we complement
our analysis by computing PSP indicators for 2000. A word of caution is in order when making
the comparative analysis. Changes in public sector performance experienced by countries over
time are measured relative to that of other countries. Hence, a given country could have
improved its PSP score over time either because of the improvement of its output indicators or
because other countries in the sample obtained weaker results. Another limitation of the analysis
is that when comparing PSP scores over time there is no differentiation of initial conditions
among countries. Hence, more advanced countries (in terms of achievement of output indicators)
may obtain marginal improvements in some of the output indicators simply because there is little
room for them to do so, while less advanced countries may experience the opposite situation.
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Although the comparison of PSP indicators do not offer a dynamic framework, the
contrast of two different time periods could still be useful to identify significant changes in
performance among groups of countries. Figure 3 shows PSP indicators in 2000 and 2010.
Figure 3 – PSP Indicators in 2000 and 2010 (Equal Weights Using Quality of Math and Science)
Large gov.
Medium gov.
Small gov.
Argentina
Belize
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador 2010
Guatemala
Guyana 2000
Honduras
Jamaica
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
Trinidad and Tobago
Uruguay
Venezuela, RB
0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00
Source: Authors’ calculations.
It is worth noting that on average, countries with small governments obtain better PSP
scores both in 2000 and 2010 than medium and large governments (notwithstanding the slight
decline in public sector performance). Medium-sized governments, on the other hand, seem to
have improved their PSP scores from 2000 to 2010, although in 2000 they reported the lowest
average scores of the three groups. There was little change in performance in the large-
government group with marginally lower average scores in 2010 (0.96) when compared with
those in 2000 (0.97).
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Figure 4 further illustrates this efficiency and performance assessment by placing the
countries into four quadrants taking into account those two dimensions. Therefore, we see that
some countries have a good performance (the two right-hand side quadrants), such as Chile,
Peru, Bolivia and Colombia, but these can then be split into more efficient (upper quadrant) and
less efficient (lower quadrant). On the other hand, the two left-hand side quadrants depict cases
of lower performance, and particularly the lower left-hand side quadrant, where we can see a
sub-sample of less effective and less efficient countries.
Figure 4 - PSP and PSE in 2010 (Using Quality of Math and Science)
2,15
Guatemala
2,00
1,85
1,70
Dominica Peru Chil
e
Public Sector Efficiency
1,55 n
Republic
1,40 Ecuador
Cost
El
1,25 Salvador Mexic a Trinidad and
o Rica Tobago
1,10 Hondur Panam
Paragua Belize
as Urugua a
y Jamaic Braz Surina
0,95 a y
il Colombi
me
Nicaragu Argenti
0,80 na aBolivia
a
Venezue
Guyan
0,65 la
a
0,50
0,70 0,80 0,90 1,00 1,10 1,20 1,30
Public Sector Performance
Finally, we also computed the PSE scores for the year 2000 (see illustration in Figure 5).
It is worth noting that results were very similar to the ones obtained with 2010 data: countries
that were efficient/inefficient in 2010 were also efficient/inefficient in 2000, with the exception
of four cases. Ecuador and Peru had PSE scores below the sample average in the year 2000 and
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above the average in 2010, implying an improvement in their relative efficiency during the
decade. On the contrary, Belize and Panama experienced the opposite situation.
Results for country groups in terms of the size of the government are as follows. On
average, only small governments obtained efficiency scores above the sample mean in both
periods. The medium-sized country group obtained average PSE scores below the sample mean
in both years, although with a slight improvement in relative efficiency from period to period.
The large-size country group, on the contrary, not only posted lower PSE scores than the sample
average in both periods, but saw their efficiency scores worsen from 2000 to 2010.
Figure 5 - PSP and PSE in 2000 (Using Quality of Math and Science)
3,00
Guatemala
2,70
2,40
2,10
Dominica
Public Sector Efficiency
n Republic
1,80
Costa Panama
El
Rica Chile
1,50 Salvado Trinida
r d and
Mexico TobagoBeliz
1,20 e
Paraguay Per Argentin
Urugua
a
Ecuador uGuyana
0,90 Nicaragua Brazily
Jamaica
Honduras Bolivi
Venezuela Colombia
a
0,60
Surinam
0,30 e
0,40 0,60 0,80 1,00 1,20 1,40 1,60
Public Sector Performance
When placing countries in the efficiency and performance dimensions employing the PSP
and PSE scores for the year 2000 we observe that they are mainly clustered into two quadrants,
the effective and efficient group and the less effective and less efficient group, with majority of
countries laying in the latter group. The higher country dispersion observed in Figure 4 when
contrasted to figure 5 illustrates improvement in scores over the decade, particularly in PSP.
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1,4
1,3 Chile
0,7
0,6
0,5
5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0
Spending-to-GDP Ratio
For comparative purposes we computed DEA scores, still with one input and one output,
for the case where the PSP is computed using the literacy rate instead of the quality of math and
science. Results are very similar (Table 6).
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In addition, we redid the analysis using instead of the overall PSP indicator, two inputs,
which are the so-called opportunity PSP and Musgravian PSP sub-indicators. The results in
Table 7 show that in this case, and besides Chile and Guatemala, also now Peru shows up in the
efficiency frontier. In fact, Peru was rather close the frontier in the one input and one output set
of results. Finally, Table 8 summarizes the set of DEA results.
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Table 8 – Descriptive Statistics of DEA Efficiency Scores and Model Specification, 2010
As in the previous sections, we extended the DEA methodology to our 2000 data. Results
from the one input-one output exercise place Guatemala and Panama in the efficiency frontier
with Chile ranking 5th. This would imply a loss in relative efficiency from 2000 to 2010
experienced by Panama, and a relative efficiency gain for Chile over the same period (Table 9).
The average input efficiency score in 2000 for the whole sample is 56 percent while the output
efficiency score is 67 percent, implying that in the year 2000, countries could achieve the same
level of outcome using 44 percent less spending or could increase their performance by 33
percent using the same level of spending. On average, both scores improved in the year 2010 for
the group as a whole, suggesting an improvement in efficiency in the region from 2000 to 2010.
28
.
In the one input-two outputs exercise, Chile joins Guatemala and Panama in the
efficiency frontier and so does the Dominican Republic (Table 10).5
5
Similar results are obtained when employing the literacy rate variable in the computation of PSP scores.
29
.
30
.
constraints, household wealth, parental education, and more institutional related characteristics
such as the level and quality of property rights, the degree of transparency, the rule of law or the
ability to control corruption. The literature proposes several ways of tackling this question,
usually via an additional assessment, trying to explain efficiency scores.6 This is our approach
here as well, briefly sketched below.
Let zi be a (1 r) vector of non-discretionary outputs. In a typical two-stage approach, the
following regression is estimated:
ˆi zi i , (5)
where ˆi is the efficiency score from solving (4), step one. is a (r 1) vector of parameters to
be estimated in step two associated with each considered non-discretionary input. Since we know
that ˆi 1 one can estimate (5) using censored regression techniques (Tobit).
For the purpose of illustration, we can see in Figure 6 that countries A, B and C are
efficient, while country D is inefficient. The output score for country D is d1/(d1+d2) and is lower
than one. Nevertheless, country D’s inefficiency may be partly due to a number of non-
discretionary factors forcing country D to produces less than the theoretical maximum, even if
discretionary inputs are efficiently used. If the exogenous environment for country D were more
favourable, then we could have observed Dc. In other words, country D would have produced
more and would be nearer the production possibility. The environment corrected output score
would be d1c/(d1c+d2c), higher than d1/(d1+d2), and closer to unity.
6
See Ruggiero (2004) and Simar and Wilson (2007) for an overview.
31
.
Therefore, we also use a Tobit estimation, to explain the efficiency scores obtained
before in the three DEA specifications for 2010 (tables 5 to 7, respectively Model 1, Model 2 and
Model 3 and we present in Table 11 those two step results (non-discretionary input data and
source are provided in table A4 in the Appendix), using average data for the period 2000-2010
for the non-discretionary factors. It is possible to observe that more transparency and regulatory
quality improve the efficiency scores, both from an output and from an input-oriented
perspective. On the other hand, property rights and the control of corruption improve the output
efficiency scores. In addition, the fit of the estimations is overall always better in explaining the
output efficiency scores.
Therefore, better quality indicators, regarding how easy and transparent is for
businesses in a given country to obtain information about changes in government policies and
regulation affecting their activities, as well as the perceptions of the ability of the government to
formulate and implement policies and regulations that permit and promote private activities,
seem to constrain the efficiency of the government itself. 7
7
We assessed also other non-discretionary institutional factors such as voice and accountability, public trust in
politicians, or the rule of law, but they were not as relevant or even statistically significant in explaining the
efficiency scores.
32
.
5. Conclusions
We assess government performance, defined as the outcome of public sector activities,
for a sample of twenty-three Latin American and Caribbean Countries for the period 2001-2010,
by computing Public Sector Performance (PSP) scores. We also quantify the efficiency of public
sectors in achieving such performance by relating PSP scores to public spending by means of
Public Sector Efficiency (PSE) and DEA scores. We find that majority of countries with total
expenditure-to-GDP ratios below 25 percent perform the best, followed by countries with total
spending between 26 and 30 percent and large governments with total spending-to-GDP ratios
over 30 percent.
We find similar results applying the DEA methodology where Guatemala and Chile are
placed on the efficiency frontier in the one input (total spending)-one output version (PSP
scores), joined by Peru in the one input (total spending)-two outputs (PSP-administrative and
33
.
PSP-Musgravian) model. In both cases, nine out of the top ten most efficient countries (input-
oriented approach) are countries with small public sectors. According to the DEA, the sample
countries could use on average 40 percent less of the employed resources to attain the same
output level, or alternatively increase their output production by 19 percent with the same level
of total spending if they were technically efficient.
Employing a Tobit analysis to explain efficiency scores in a second step, we find that
notably more transparency and regulatory quality improve the efficiency scores, both from an
output and from an input-oriented perspective. On the other hand, more transparency and control
of corruption, and better regulatory quality and property rights increase output-oriented
efficiency.
In summary, our analysis finds evidence that public sector efficiency is inversely
correlated with the size of the government. This result is in line with previous findings for
industrialized countries and emerging markets (Afonso et al. (2005, 2010a)).
A final word of caution on the interpretation of results, particularly at the country level, is in
order. Public sector performance and efficiency are measured in relative terms only. Hence,
country comparisons must be handling carefully and not being taken out of context. According to
the employed methodology, improvements in country performance are linked to the achievement
of higher output indicators or the worsening of results obtained by its peers. By the same token,
efficiency scores are affected by the cost incurred by a country in obtaining such output
indicators (public spending), relative to the input-output ratio used by its peers. Finally, even if a
country is placed on the efficient DEA frontier, this does not imply that there is no room for
improvement either in the achievement of better outcome indicators (directly linked to
performance) or the current input/output ratio.
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37
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Appendix
Qual
School ity
Shado
Red Judicial enrolm of Liter Infant Life Infrastru
Corrup w
Tap Indepe ent Math acy Morta Expect cture
tion Econo
e ndence Secon and Rate lity ancy Quality
my
dary Scie
Country net nce
Argentina 2.90 2.50 2.60 27.80 82.19 3.20 97.73 12.30 75.63 3.50
Belize 2.90 2.90 3.10 45.60 64.99 3.30 94.10 14.20 75.84 3.50
Bolivia 2.80 3.20 3.00 70.70 68.10 3.00 90.70 41.70 66.27 3.40
Brazil 3.70 2.00 3.70 43.00 2.70 90.04 17.30 73.10 3.60
Chile 7.20 3.60 5.50 21.10 82.56 2.80 98.65 7.70 78.89 5.50
Colombia 3.50 2.90 3.50 45.10 74.39 3.70 93.24 18.10 73.43 3.60
Costa Rica 5.30 3.10 4.90 28.30 4.40 96.06 8.70 79.19 3.60
Dominican
Republic 3.00 2.90 2.70 33.60 62.33 1.90 88.24 22.30 73.20 3.50
Ecuador 2.50 2.90 2.30 38.80 58.67 3.30 84.21 17.60 75.46 3.70
El Salvador 3.60 3.40 2.90 49.50 57.58 2.60 84.10 13.90 71.73 4.60
Guatemala 3.20 3.60 2.60 55.00 41.78 2.60 74.47 24.80 70.83 4.70
Guyana 2.70 3.60 3.30 33.30 80.54 3.80 98.80 25.30 69.55 3.80
Honduras 2.40 3.50 3.60 54.20 2.40 83.59 20.30 72.83 3.70
Jamaica 3.30 2.60 4.40 40.50 83.59 2.90 86.36 20.20 72.85 4.20
Mexico 3.10 2.90 3.20 31.30 71.46 2.80 93.44 14.10 76.68 4.20
Nicaragua 2.50 3.20 1.80 47.20 45.77 2.20 78.00 22.60 73.73 3.10
Panama 3.60 3.40 2.10 68.10 68.73 2.40 93.61 17.20 75.97 4.60
Paraguay 2.20 3.50 1.80 42.50 60.04 2.20 94.56 20.80 72.28 2.50
Peru 3.50 2.60 2.60 66.30 77.64 2.40 89.59 14.90 73.76 3.50
Suriname 3.60 2.80 4.40 44.70 50.31 3.60 94.62 26.90 70.34 4.20
Trinidad and
Tobago 3.60 3.40 4.40 37.30 68.23 4.60 98.74 24.00 69.76 4.40
Uruguay 6.90 3.10 5.30 56.00 69.56 3.30 98.27 9.20 76.24 4.30
Venezuela,
RB 2.00 2.20 1.60 36.30 71.78 2.90 95.15 15.70 74.13 2.90
Average 3.48 3.03 3.27 44.18 67.01 3.00 91.14 18.69 73.55 3.85
Maximum 7.20 3.60 5.50 70.70 83.59 4.60 98.80 41.70 79.19 5.50
Minimum 2.00 2.00 1.60 21.10 41.78 1.90 74.47 7.70 66.27 2.50
Total Spending, % of GDP, Averages
<= 25% 3.86 3.22 3.14 43.97 65.27 2.68 90.30 16.04 74.73 4.08
>= 26% and
<= 30% 3.02 3.12 3.33 44.55 59.47 3.30 88.73 21.58 72.59 3.78
> 30% 3.41 2.84 3.35 44.17 71.72 3.11 93.02 19.35 73.09 3.71
Source: Authors’ calculations.
38
.
Coefficient
of
Gini Variation Average GDP per
Country Coefficient of Growth Inflation Capita GDP Growth Unemployment
Argentina 44.49 1.55 10.57 11,353.08 4.56 12.71
Belize 42.00 0.64 2.48 6,103.72 3.94 11.07
Bolivia 56.29 0.34 5.28 3,881.97 3.85 5.17
Brazil 54.69 0.71 6.65 8,784.19 3.60 9.85
Chile 52.06 0.59 3.19 12,880.74 3.76 8.89
Colombia 55.91 0.46 5.45 7,527.67 4.10 12.84
Costa Rica 50.73 0.72 10.17 9,331.38 4.28 6.31
Dominican Republic 47.20 0.69 12.41 6,848.98 5.35 15.93
Ecuador 49.26 0.56 6.56 6,479.20 4.40 9.24
El Salvador 48.33 1.06 3.37 5,730.83 1.91 6.68
Guatemala 55.89 0.48 6.79 4,151.47 3.35 2.42
Guyana 44.54 1.10 5.90 2,722.43 2.42 10.45
Honduras 56.95 0.64 7.51 3,295.64 4.09 4.38
Jamaica 45.51 2.60 11.72 7,127.53 0.76 11.83
Mexico 48.28 2.08 4.49 12,191.34 1.66 3.88
Nicaragua 40.47 0.68 8.43 2,338.78 2.94 8.28
Panama 51.92 0.58 2.86 9,891.56 6.32 9.64
Paraguay 52.42 1.20 8.00 4,035.80 4.10 6.97
Peru 48.14 0.58 2.29 6,803.35 5.72 8.87
Suriname 0.34 10.54 6,159.67 4.77 10.25
Trinidad and Tobago 40.3 0.98 6.92 20,354.88 5.69 7.52
Uruguay 45.32 1.49 8.91 10,145.20 3.46 11.62
Venezuela, RB 44.77 2.52 22.67 10,170.00 3.46 11.70
Average 48.89 0.98 7.53 7,752.58 3.85 8.98
Minimum 40.3 0.34 2.29 2,338.78 0.76 2.42
Maximum 56.95 2.6 22.67 2,0354.88 6.32 15.93
Total Spending, % of GDP, Averages
<=25% 50.55 0.89 5.95 7985.05 4.05 7.73
>=26% and <=30% 48.58 0.61 7.57 7692.64 4.33 8.75
>30% 46.36 1.29 7.48 6888.99 3.17 10.48
Source: Authors’ calculations.
39
.
40
.
Sources:
1/, 2/ - World Economic Forum 2011-2012.
3/, 4/ - Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI).
Notes:
Data are 2000-2010 averages.
1/ Property rights: 1= are poorly defined and not protected by law, 7 = are clearly defined and well protected by law.
2/ Transparency: How easy is for businesses in your country to obtain information about changes in government policies and
regulation affecting their activities? 1 = impossible; 7 = extremely easy
3/ Regulatory Quality: Reflects perceptions of the ability of the government to formulate and implement sound policies and
regulations that permit and promote private sector development. -2.5 (weak) to 2.5 (strong) governance performance.
4/ Control of Corruption: Reflects perceptions of the extent to which public power is exercised for private gain, including both
petty and grand forms of corruption, as well as "capture" of the state by elites and private interests.
41