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The Cost Benefit Analysis of Commercial 100 MW Solar PV: The Plant Quaid-
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 sustainability

Article
The Cost Benefit Analysis of Commercial 100 MW Solar PV:
The Plant Quaid-e-Azam Solar Power Pvt Ltd.
Muhammad Asad 1 , Farrukh Ibne Mahmood 2 , Ilaria Baffo 3 , Alessandro Mauro 1 and Antonella Petrillo 1, *

1 Dipartimento di Ingegneria, Università degli Studi di Napoli “Parthenope”, Isola C4 Centro Direzionale,
80143 Napoli, Italy; muhammad.asad001@studenti.uniparthenope.it (M.A.);
alessandro.mauro@uniparthenope.it (A.M.)
2 Department of Engineering, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281, USA; fmahmoo4@asu.edu
3 Dipartimento di Economia e Impresa, Università degli Studi della Tuscia, Loc. Riello s.n.c.,
01100 Viterbo, Italy; ilaria.baffo@unitus.it
* Correspondence: antonella.petrillo@uniparthenope.it; Tel.: +39-0815476747

Abstract: The energy crisis in Pakistan has crippled the country’s economy with an energy shortfall
reaching up to 6000 MW. Fortunately, Pakistan lies close to the Sun Belt and therefore receives
very high irradiation. To this end, in the beginning of 2014 the Pakistani government sanctioned a
solar photovoltaic project namely Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park which was rated at 1000 MW. In this
study, a cost benefit analysis for the Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park has been developed. The model uses
RETScreen software. In fact, a literature review pointed out that most of the previous research work
with reference to cost benefit analysis for solar projects has been mainly carried out on smaller power
plants. The outcome of the study shows promising results with the simple payback period coming out
at 5.6 years. Furthermore, this analysis can serve as guideline for future solar photovoltaic projects in
Pakistan and can help in the development and utilization of the huge solar potential of the country,
thus aiding in the reduction of energy shortage. In its proposal, our research is unique and innovative





 in the Pakistani context. The results aim to serve as a guideline for decision makers and researchers
Citation: Asad, M.; Mahmood, F.I.; interested in this topic.
Baffo, I.; Mauro, A.; Petrillo, A. The
Cost Benefit Analysis of Commercial Keywords: renewable energy sources; photovoltaic technologies; solar power plant; cost benefit
100 MW Solar PV: The Plant analysis; QASP
Quaid-e-Azam Solar Power Pvt Ltd.
Sustainability 2022, 14, 2895. https://
doi.org/10.3390/su14052895

Academic Editor: Farooq Sher 1. Introduction

Today, modern advancements assume a basic part in the improvement of any nation
Received: 13 January 2022
that have planned to increase their energy trade [1]. In this context, solar photovoltaic
Accepted: 23 February 2022
(PV) technology has gained global importance [2]. However, industry development ad-
Published: 2 March 2022
vancement relies upon an efficient supply of electric power [3]. In any case, Pakistan is
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral going through a power shortage that is negatively influencing the lives of individuals. The
with regard to jurisdictional claims in primary explanation behind the power shortage is the expanding costs of hydrocarbon
published maps and institutional affil- assets and the absence of any desire to predict the expanding energy requirement in the
iations.
nation [4]. The majority of Pakistan relies on conventional sources of power generation.
The share of thermal power was 62.5% trailed by hydroelectric power (33.6%) and atomic
(3.9%). In thermal power, oil had the biggest share (35.1%), trailed by characteristic gas
(27.3%) and coal (0.6%). Except for hydroelectric power generation, no other renewable
Copyright: © 2022 by the authors.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
source is associated with the force framework [5]. Pakistan’s electricity sector is facing the
This article is an open access article
worst crisis in its history. It is saddled with an overloaded infrastructure with sizeable ca-
distributed under the terms and
pacity shortfall and is marred by unprecedented load shedding. The demand far surpasses
conditions of the Creative Commons supply, and henceforth load shedding is becoming a typical common phenomenon through
Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// power shutdown [6]. The shortfall in power generation across the country was more than
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 6000 MW, with demand standing at 14,475 MW and supply at 9465 MW [7]. There are
4.0/). reports that some rural areas have been experiencing load shedding and blackouts for up

Sustainability 2022, 14, 2895. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14052895 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability

Sustainability 2022, 14, 2895 2 of 13

to 20 h, while in cities load shedding of 10 h a day can occur [8]. The upsurge of power
shortages represents one of the most serious adverse domestic developments in Pakistan.
The electricity shortage did not emerge suddenly. It is the direct result of imprudent and
reckless energy policies over the last three decades. Hence, Pakistan’s energy bankruptcy
is ultimately due to massive institutional and governance failure [9]. The energy crisis
in Pakistan has crippled the country’s economy with an energy shortfall reaching up to
6000 MW. Amid this crisis, solar energy provides a way out for meeting the country’s power
demands [10]. Moreover, the government is also seeking to increase the renewable energy
sources within the country [11]. Pakistan, being close to the equator, receives abundant
sunlight and therefore has a huge potential for solar energy [12]. The irradiation in the
majority of the cities in Pakistan is close to 4.5 kWh/day, which is very high and can be
used to produce electricity through solar technologies such as photovoltaic or solar ther-
mal technologies [13]. In this context, in the beginning of 2014 the Pakistani government
sanctioned a solar photovoltaic project (the Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park) which was rated
at 1000 MW. At the end of 2014, the first phase of the project with a capacity of 100 MW
was completed and came into being as the Quaid-e-Azam Solar Power Pvt Ltd. (QASP).
(Bahawalpur, Pakistan). A literature review pointed out that most of the previous research
work with reference to cost benefit analysis for solar projects has been mainly carried out
on smaller power plants. The aim of the present research is to bridge this gap. Thus, our
research develops a cost benefit analysis for the QASP 100 MW solar plant. RETScreen
software was used to make an energy model and perform a cost, financial, and emission
analysis. The results of the analysis showed that the simple payback period of the project is
5.6 years and the equity payback period is 5.8 years. The net present value (NPV) calculated
by the model is $31,661,157 and the benefit to cost ratio is 1.33. Furthermore, the model
shows that the net greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions over the lifecycle of the project (i.e.,
25 years) are 2,264,250 tons of carbon dioxide. These results indicate that large scale solar
PV systems in Pakistan can not only bridge the energy gap but also help in reducing carbon
emissions. These results also reflect a positive outcome for private or foreign investments
as the return on investment (ROI) can be gained in almost 5 to 6 years over the 25-year
lifetime of the project. Moreover, this analysis can assist in increasing the use of solar PV in
the country and act as a reference for other large scale commercial PV projects in Pakistan.
In its proposal, our research is unique and innovative within the Pakistani context. The
results aim to serve as a guideline for decision makers and researchers interested in this
topic. In addition, the proposed analysis helps commercial and future investors evaluate
the economic and financial benefits of investing in Solar PV technology in similar areas to
that of QASP, Pakistan.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 summarizes current develop-
ments on the economic topic under consideration. Section 3 outlines our materials and
methods. In Section 4 and in Section 5, the main results and their discussion are summa-
rized, respectively. Section 6 points out suggested directions for future research that have
emerged from the analysis. Finally, Section 7 summarizes the main conclusions of the study.

2. Literature Review
For an efficient utilization of a solar power plants, a cost benefit and techno economic
analysis is very important for determining the optimum conditions for efficient opera-
tion [14]. In fact, as suggested by Khan et al. [15], the peculiarity of a photovoltaic system is
that it requires a strong commitment of initial capital and low maintenance costs (annually
about 1% of the cost of the system) [16]. The analysis of all of the economic aspects relating
to a photovoltaic system is complex, considering that each installation must be evaluated in
its particular context (local conditions, regulations, solar radiation, available areas, etc.) [17].
In order to make a correct comparison, it is necessary to talk about the value of the energy
produced and not about the cost of energy. This is due to the fact that the quality of the
energy produced by photovoltaic sources is not the same as that of traditional sources (en-
vironmental impact, intermittent energy, etc.). To better understand the reference scenario,
Sustainability 2022, 14, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 13
Sustainability 2022, 14, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 13

energy
energyproduced
produced andandnotnotabout the the
about costcost
of energy.
of energy. ThisThisis due
is due to the factfact
to the thatthatthe the
quality
quality
Sustainability 2022, 14, 2895 3 of 13
of the energy produced by photovoltaic sources is not the
of the energy produced by photovoltaic sources is not the same as that of traditional same as that of traditional
sources
sources(environmental
(environmental impact, intermittent
impact, intermittent energy,
energy,etc.). To better
etc.). To better understand
understand the the
refer-
refer-
ence scenario, we have investigated the documents published
ence scenario, we have investigated the documents published on this topic in the litera- on this topic in the litera-
weInhave
ture. investigated the documents published on studies
this topic in analyze
the literature. In the last
ture. the last
In the fewfew
last years,
years,there have
there been
have beeninteresting
interesting studies that that analyze the themost mostcostcost
few analysis
benefit years, there for ahave
PV been interesting
plant. For a studies that
comprehensive analyze
survey of thephenomenon,
the most cost benefit an analysis
inves-
benefit analysis for a PV plant. For a comprehensive survey of the phenomenon, an inves-
for a using
tigation PV plant. SCOPUSFor a database,
comprehensive the the survey
largest of the phenomenon,
abstract andand citation an investigation
database of peer-re- using
tigation using SCOPUS database, largest abstract citation database of peer-re-
SCOPUS
viewed database,
literature, waswasthe
carriedlargest abstract
out.out.
SCOPUS and citation
supports database
a Boolean of peer-reviewed
syntax, which literature,
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viewed literature, carried SCOPUS supports a Boolean syntax, which a type
wasallowing
search carried out. usersSCOPUS
to combine supports
keywords a Boolean
with syntax,
operators whichsuch isasa AND,
type ofNOT, search and allowing
OR
search allowing users to combine keywords with operators such as AND, NOT, and OR
users toproduce
to further combinemore keywords
relevant with operators
results. Thus, such as AND,
search string NOT,
used and
in the OR to further
literature produce
survey
to further produce more relevant results. Thus, search string used in the literature survey
more
waswas“solar relevant
power results.
plant” Thus,“cost
AND search stringanalysis”.
benefit used in the Theliterature
string survey
was was according
defined “solar power
plant”
“solar power
AND “cost
plant”
benefit
AND “cost
analysis”.
benefit
The
analysis”.
string was
The
defined
string was
according
defined according
to thearticles.
standards
to the
to standards
the standards of the SCOPUS
of the SCOPUS database.
database. WeWe applied
applied three main
three main criteria to select
criteria to select articles.
Onlyof the SCOPUS
articles in which database.
the the
stringWe applied
“solar three
power main
plant” criteria
waswas found to select articles.
in “article title”Onlyandandarticles
the the
Only
in whicharticles
the in which
string “solar string
power “solar
plant” power
was plant”
found in found
“article in
title” “article
and the title”
string “cost
string “cost
string benefit
“cost analysis”
benefit analysis” was found
was foundin (1)
in article
(1) in title,
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(2) inabstract,or in
or (3) key
in (3)were
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benefit
words were analysis”
analyzed. was found
TheThe survey in (1)
intointoarticle
SCOPUS title, (2)
highlighted abstract,
179179 documents (3) key
on this wordstopic.
words
analyzed. were analyzed.
The survey survey
into SCOPUS SCOPUS
highlighted highlighted
179 documents on this topic.
TheThefirstfirst
document
document waswaspublished
published in 1987,
in as shown
1987, asFigure
shown in documents
Figure
in Figure 1. Fromon this
1.(17
From 2017 topic.
2017(17 (17The first
docu-
document
ments) to 2021 was
(26 published
documents) in 1987,
there isas
a shown
percentage in increase1. From
in the 2017
number documents)
of publications todocu-
2021
ments) to 2021 (26 documents) there is a percentage increase
(26 documents) there is a percentage increase in the number of publications equal to 53%. in the number of publications
equal to 53%.
equal to 53%. TheThedatadata
highlights the the growing scientific interest on this issue.
The data highlights the highlights
growing scientific growing scientific
interest on thisinterest
issue. on this issue.

Figure 1. Documents
Figure by years
1. Documents (source:
by years Scopus).
(source: Scopus).

Among
Among
Among the the
ten ten
the most
ten productive
most
most countries,
productive
productive it emerges
countries,
countries, thatthat
it emerges
it emerges the the
that most productive
the most
most coun-
productive
productive coun-
coun-
triestries
are the
tries are United
are the States (15%) and India (14%), followed by China (9%) as shown
the United States (15%) and India (14%), followed by China (9%) as shown in
United States (15%) and India (14%), followed by China (9%) as in
shown in
Figure 2.
Figure
Figure 2.2.

Figure
Figure 2. Documents
2. Documents by country
by country (source:
(source: Scopus).
Scopus).
Figure 2. Documents by country (source: Scopus).
The result does not surprise us since, alongside the interest of the scientific community,
the importance of the topic is also demonstrated by the latest Global Market Outlook
Report [18] produced the SolarPower Europe Association. The market analysis showed
Sustainability 2022, 14, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 13
Sustainability 2022, 14, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 13

The result does not surprise us since, alongside the interest of the scientific commu-
Sustainability 2022, 14, 2895 The result does not surprise us since, alongside the interest of the scientific commu- 4 of 13
nity, the importance of the topic is also demonstrated by the latest Global Market Outlook
nity, the importance of the topic is also demonstrated by the latest Global Market Outlook
Report [18] produced the SolarPower Europe Association. The market analysis showed
Report [18] produced the SolarPower Europe Association. The market analysis showed
that in 2020, despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the sector globally recorded
that
thatinin2020,
2020,despite
despitethetheimpact
impactof the
theCOVID-19 pandemic, the sector globally recorded
double-digit growth (+18%) and of
a new COVID-19 pandemic,
annual record of 138.2the
GW sector globally
of solar recorded
technologies
double-digit
double-digit growth
growth (+18%)
(+18%) and
anda anew
new annual
annualrecord
record ofof138.2
138.2GW
GW ofofsolar
solartechnologies
technologies
installed (Figure 3). Furthermore, possible growth is estimated for the period from 2021
installed
installed (Figure 3).
3). Furthermore, possible growth is estimated
estimatedfor forthe
theperiod
periodfrom
from2021
2021to
to 2025. In(Figure Furthermore,
this context, the United possible growth
States and Chinaisare the main players.
to2025.
2025.InInthis
thiscontext,
context,the
theUnited
UnitedStates
Statesand
andChina
Chinaare
arethe
themain
mainplayers.
players.

Figure 3.3.Annual
Figure3. solar
Annualsolar PV
solarPV installed
PVinstalled capacity
installedcapacity from
capacityfrom 2000
from2000 to
2000to 2020
to2020 (source:
2020(source: Global
(source:Global Market
GlobalMarket Outlook
MarketOutlook For
OutlookFor
For
Figure Annual
Solar Power
SolarPower 2021–2025).
Power2021–2025).
2021–2025).
Solar

Furthermore, possible
Furthermore,possible growth
possiblegrowth isisestimated
growthis for
estimatedfor the
forthe period
theperiod from
periodfrom 2021
from2021 to
2021to 2025.
to2025. In
2025.In this
Inthis
this
Furthermore, estimated
context,
context, the
theUnited
UnitedStates
States and
and China
China are
are the
the main
main players
players (Figure
(Figure 4).
4).
context, the United States and China are the main players (Figure 4).

Evolution
Figure4.4.Evolution
Figure of of global
global annual
annual solar
solar PV PV market
market shares
shares untiluntil
20252025 (source:
(source: Global
Global Market
Market Out-
Figure 4. Evolution of global annual solar PV market shares until 2025 (source: Global Market Out-
look for Solar Power 2021–2025).
Outlook for Solar Power 2021–2025).
look for Solar Power 2021–2025).
Among the
Among the documents
documentsidentified
identifiedononSCOPUS,
SCOPUS, wewe
have more
have carefully
more analyzed
carefully those
analyzed
Among
closest to ourthe documents
research. In identified
detail, Ullah on
et SCOPUS,
al. [19] we have
develop a more carefully
feasibility of a analyzed
solar thermal
those closest to our research. In detail, Ullah et al. [19] develop a feasibility of a solar
those
power closest to Pakistan.
plant in our research.
IrfanIn detail,
et al. [20] Ullah
presentetaal. [19] economic
techno develop aanalysis
feasibility
for of
an aoff-grid
solar
solar PV system. He suggests that their designated area (Punjab) in Pakistan is not only
ideal for solar but will also supply cheap electricity and assist in reducing carbon emissions.
Xu et al. [21] present a similar study for another area (Sindh) in Pakistan, reahcing the
Sustainability 2022, 14, 2895 5 of 13

same conclusion that solar PV can provide cheap and green energy. Moreover, Shah et al.
also presents a techno-economic analysis for use of solar PV in the Balochistan region
of Pakistan, suggesting similar positive outcomes for cheaper and carbon-free sources
electricity [22]. Sadiq et al. also reports similar findings as per his cost benefit analysis for a
solar water heating system in Islamabad, Pakistan [23]. Although there is some research
work highlighting the benefits of solar energy in Pakistan using techno-economic or cost
benefit analysis, most of them have taken into consideration either residential or small-scale
systems and have not performed analysis on larger commercial systems. However, our
literature review pointed out that most of the previous work with reference to cost benefit
analysis for solar projects has been mainly carried out on smaller power plants. The aim
of the present research is to bridge this gap. Thus, our research develops a cost benefit
analysis for the commercial system QASP 100 MW solar plant. RETScreen software was
used to make an energy model and perform a cost, financial, and emission analysis.

3. Materials and Methods

This paper uses RETScreen software for energy modeling, financial analysis and GHG
reduction analysis of QASP [24]. RETScreen has been developed by Canada Excellence
Research Chairs (CERC) to facilitate investors in determining the viability of any clean
energy project all over the world [25]. Extensive databases from various sources allows for
a more accurate calculation of net present value (NPV), cumulative cash flows and simple
payback [26]. The software is widely used by researchers and academics to perform energy
and cost benefit analysis for renewable energy systems, furthermore it is a freeware and
easy to use [27]. In our study, five criterions are selected for analyzing the financial viability
for QASP (Payback Period, NPV, internal rate of return (IRR), benefit-cost ratio (BCR), and
reduction in GHG Emissions). To state our aims briefly, this analysis will ascertain the time
it would require recuperating the initial investment and determine what the yearly cash
inflows will be throughout the life of the project. This analysis helps commercial and future
investors evaluate the economic and financial benefits of investing in solar PV technology
in similar areas to that of QASP, Pakistan. In addition to the benefit of ameliorating the
energy crisis, these plants also help curb the GHG emissions. Each benchmark method is
briefly discussed below. Payback period (Equation (1)) is the time in which the primary
money inflows of a solar project are thought to be recuperated from the money inflows
created by the venture. It is one of the easiest venture evaluation systems [28]. The formula
to calculate payback period can be modeled by the following equation [29]:
y
Payback Period = x + (1)
z
where x is the last period with negative cash flow, y is the absolute value of cash flow at the
end of period x, and z is the total cash flow after the period y.
NPV (Equation (2)) is used to decide the present estimation of a venture by the dis-
counted aggregate of all money in-streams obtained from the solar project. NPV is different
from ROI as the latter does not considers the time value of money. NPV calculations
accounts for the time value of money from the QASP by including inflation, interest, and
opportunity costs [30]. NPV can be calculated using the formula [31]:

T
Ci
NPV = −C0 + ∑ (2)
i =0 (1 + r ) i

where −C0 is the initial investment, C is the cash flow, r is the discount rate, i is the number
of time periods, and T is the maximum time period.
While NPV can demonstrate the project’s net present worth in dollars, the IRR uncov-
ers the rate of return from NPV money cash flows from an investment in solar PV based
project. IRR (Equation (3)) is a useful tool for investors to determine the viability of an
Sustainability 2022, 14, 2895 6 of 13

investment when comparing projects. IRR can be determined as the value of ρ that would
make the following equation zero [32]:

BT − CT
=0 (3)
(1 + ρ ) T

A BCR is a calculation, used in cost-benefit analysis, that endeavors to recapitulate the

cumulative value for money of an investment opportunity. A BCR is the ratio of the benefits
of a project, stated in discounted present values and comparative to its costs. The higher
the BCR, the better the investment. Generally, BCR should be greater than 1. To estimate
annual and project lifetime energy production from the 100 MW solar power plant the
data inputs that are required includes power plant location (co-ordinates), location climate
details, PV module type and specifications, overall system specifications, and aggregate
losses. The location of QASP is in Cholistan, district Bahawalpur (latitude 29.4, Longitude
71.7) in Punjab, Pakistan [33]. Cholistan is a desert and characterized by arid and dry
climate. For local climate values, which include the solar irradiation, RETScreen software
uses SolarGIS and Meteonorm databases [34]. Table 1 represents the relevant data.

Table 1. Cholistan Climate Data [34,35].

Daily Solar Radiation Heating Cooling

Air Rel. Wind
Month n-Horizontal Atmosp. P Earth T ◦ C Days Days
T ◦C Humid% Speed ◦ C-d ◦ C-d
kWh/m2 /Day
January 12.6 42.4 3.61 99.6 3.0 13.5 168 80
February 15.4 35.8 4.47 99.4 3.3 17.1 72 152
March 21.9 27.8 5.25 99.0 3.5 24.9 0 367
April 27.7 26.5 5.99 98.5 3.7 32.1 0 531
May 31.9 28.8 6.53 98.1 3.9 36.5 0 679
June 33.7 40.6 6.67 97.6 4.0 38.0 0 712
July 32.0 59.0 6.21 97.7 3.6 35.8 0 682
August 30.3 65.6 5.67 97.9 3.2 33.1 0 631
September 29.4 52.0 5.31 98.4 3.2 31.9 0 581
October 25.6 30.2 4.65 98.9 3.1 27.5 0 483
November 19.8 29.2 3.84 99.4 3.0 20.7 0 295
December 14.5 36.3 3.34 99.7 2.9 15.1 108 140
Annual 24.6 39.6 5.13 98.7 3.4 27.2 348 5333

Solar irradiation, azimuth, sunshine hours, and ambient temperature have significant
impact on the power output of the plant. QASP employs poly-crystalline JA Solar poly-Si—
JAP6-60-255/MP solar panels with a rated power output of 255 W per unit of PV module
and an efficiency of 15.6%. To produce 100 MW of cumulative output, about 400,000 units
of PV panels have been installed over an area of 500 acres (2.023 million m2 ). This power
plant does not employ any solar tracking equipment due to inhibitive cost. The slope of
the panels has been kept equal to the latitude (i.e., 29.4 degrees). Miscellaneous losses of
the plant are around 23% and include PV loss due to irradiance level, PV loss includes loss
due to temperature, array soiling/dust loss, module quality loss, module array mismatch
loss, ohmic wing loss, inverter loss, external transformation loss and transmission loss. The
specifications for all main equipment, PV modules, inverter, and transformers are shown in
Table 2.
 Sustainability 2022, 14, 2895 7 of 13

Table 2. Summary of all equipment used in QASP solar PV plant [25].

Equipment Technical Specifications

Solar PV Module Specifictaions
Total Capacity Solar Plant (MWp) 100 Model JA Solar JAP(BK) 60/225/3BB
Quantity of Arrays 9804 Type Polycrystalline
Quantity of Modules in a string 20 Rated Max. Power at STC 255 W ± 5 W
Quantity of Modules 400,000 Module Efficiency 15.59%
Quantity of Inverters 100 Class of Module A
Quantity of DC Combiner Boxes 1300 Dimensions 1650 × 991 × 40 mm
Quantity of 33 kV Box Type
100 Degradation Gradient 0.7%/year
Transformers
Quantity of 132 kV Transformers
2 Warranty 25 years linear power output
(1000 MVA each)
Inverter Specifications Inverter Specifications
Manufacturer TBEA Model TBEA-TC500KH
Input parameters Output parameters
Rated DC Input Power 618 KW Rated AC Output Power 500 kW
Max. DC Input Voltage 1000 V Max. AC Voltage Power 600 kW
DC Voltage Range 450–1000 V Rated AC Voltage Range 270-350 V
MPP Voltage Range 500–820 V Rated Grid Voltage 315 V
Max. DC Current 1236A Rated Output Current 916 A
132 kV Transformer
33 kV Transformer Specifications
Specifications
Manufacturer TBEA Manufacturer TBEA
Model ZGS11-1000/33 Model SFZ-100,000/132
Rating Power 1000/(500-500) kVA Rated Power 100 MVA
Rated Voltage 33.5/0/315 kV Rated Voltage 33/132 kV

The transformer has a maximum efficiency of 98.7%, dimension of 155 × 2150 ×

850 mm, an ambient operation temperature range of −30 to 60 ◦ C and has a warranty of
5 years. All of the data discussed above is used in the RETScreen model.

4. Results
RETScreen calculated the annual energy output (141,306 MWh) against an8 annual
Sustainability 2022, 14, x FOR PEER REVIEW of 13
average sunshine hours of 8.5 h. The monthly energy output for QASP against an average
sunshine hours per month is plotted in Figure 5.

Figure 5. Bar graph showing monthly energy prodcution for QASP as given by RETScreen.
Figure 5. Bar graph showing monthly energy prodcution for QASP as given by RETScreen.
The cumulative cash flows of the power plant were also calculated over the plant’s life
cycle of 25 years the following graph in Figure 6 shows the cash flows over the period of
the plant’s life cycle.
Sustainability 2022, 14, 2895 8 of 13
Figure 5. Bar graph showing monthly energy prodcution for QASP as given by RETScreen.

Figure 6.
Figure Cash flow
6. Cash flow as
as given
given by
by RETScreen.
RETScreen.

From these cash flows, RETScreen calculated the required financial parameters for
Table 3. Financial viability factor results from RETScreen.
example IRR, NPV and BCR. These are summarized in Table 3.
Financial Viability Parameters Value
Table 3. Financial viabilityIRR—Equity
factor results from RETScreen. 15.1%
IRR—Assets 8.1%
Financial Viability Parameters Value
Simple Payback 5.6 years
IRR—Equity 15.1%
Equity
IRR—Assets
Payback 8.1%
5.8 years
Net Present
Simple Payback Value (NPV) $31,661,157
5.6 years
EquityAnnual
Payback Life Savings $3,488,049/year
5.8 years
Net Present Value (NPV)
Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) $31,661,157 1.33
Annual Life Savings $3,488,049/year
Debt Services Coverage 4.40
Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) 1.33
Debt Services Coverage 4.40
GHG emission reduction for 100 MW solar power plant was also estimated. A very
respectable 95,570 t of CO2 (per annum) emissions has been estimated to be reduced,
GHG emission reduction for 100 MW solar power plant was also estimated. A very
which would have been emitted from a conventional thermal power plant. The annual
respectable 95,570 t of CO2 (per annum) emissions has been estimated to be reduced,
energy output for QA Solar was calculated at around 141,306 MWh which is comparable
which would have been emitted from a conventional thermal power plant. The annual
to the target energy value of 153,300 MWh by the National Electric Power Regulatory Au-
energy output for QA Solar was calculated at around 141,306 MWh which is comparable
thority (NEPRA) and reported in the annual performance report of the solar plant in the
to the target energy value of 153,300 MWh by the National Electric Power Regulatory
2020–2021 period [35]. This energy is the actual electrical energy that has been exported
Authority (NEPRA) and reported in the annual performance report of the solar plant in the
to the main grid. Similarly, the capacity factor of the plant is calculated to be around 15.8%,
2020–2021 period [35]. This energy is the actual electrical energy that has been exported
which is also very close to benchmark value of 17.5% set by NEPRA [36], which represents
to the main grid. Similarly, the capacity factor of the plant is calculated to be around
the percentage of actual power delivered relative to theoretical possible. Energy genera-
15.8%, which is also very close to benchmark value of 17.5% set by NEPRA [36], which
tion from plant varies per month according to the radiation and temperature [37]. In sum-
represents the percentage of actual power delivered relative to theoretical possible. Energy
mers, due to
generation increased
from temperature
plant varies per month(and heat), PV
according to panels have less
the radiation and efficiency so [37].
temperature the
In summers, due to increased temperature (and heat), PV panels have less efficiency so
the maximum power cannot be extracted [38] as depicted in Figure 2, where sunshine
hours increase May through July but overall energy output decreases due to increased
temperatures, which conversely affects the PV performance [39]. An important point here
is to highlight that electricity export price has been taken as mentioned by National Electric
Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA), i.e., $18.43/MWh. The first step in calculating NPV
and IRR is performing cost analysis of the plant. PV panels make up the bulk of the cost and
engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) is another major contributor. Moreover,
technical and other services also require substantial costs. As this is a grid tied power plant,
there is no need for storage [40]. Power systems’ cost have the lion’s share in total initial
costs [40]. These include cost of PV ($66,299,999), transmission line, substation equipment
(transformers, circuit breakers etc.), cables, and inverters ($33,000,000) [41]. These costs
amount to about 80.2% of the total initial investment. Power system costs are part of the
EPC costs, which themselves constitute the greatest portion of initial capital expenditure.
Other costs include the investment for feasibility study ($1,000,000) about 0.7% of total cost,
Sustainability 2022, 14, 2895 9 of 13

a development ($2,500,000) close to 1.7% of overall cost. Furthermore, the cost of other
engineering services is $20,000,000 about 13.8% of total cost and balance of system and
miscellaneous costs add approximately $5,172,446 or 3.6% of overall expenditure. Another
aspect of these costs are operation and maintenance costs which amount to $3,037,000
per annum for the life of project (25 years). Other annual costs include debt payments
for 10 years which are calculated as about $5,154,666 per annum. Primary income of this
plant is from selling electricity to the national grid. NEPRA has kept the levelized cost of
electricity at $18.4/MWh. Per annum income amounts to $26,042,728. As a way of attracting
investment in solar PV, the government kept the income tax to 0% during the time of plant
commissioning. To calculate the yearly cash flows and hence other parameters for the
100 MW plant, financial parameters such as discount rate (10%), inflation rate (10%), debt
ratio (33%), debt interest rate (1.38%), and debt term (10 years) are important. At the time of
tariff determination, values of these rates were taken from State Bank of Pakistan’s archive.
Figure 2 show these results. Note that after year five, the project has recovered its initial
investment and returns from the project are enough to consider the project to be profitable.
The trend for increased cash flows continues till year 24, after which a decline is observed.
This represents both the decreased efficiency of the plant and cost of replacing the defected
panels in year 25. It is quite evident that this project is quite attractive to the investors.
With discount and inflation rates of 10% each, NPV amounts to a very high $31,661,157
and initial investment will be recovered in less than six years. As QASP is part of a larger
1000 MW solar park, these values also act as a guide for future investors. Moreover, as
the project has a BCR of 1.33, this solar plant is a very valuable investment opportunity.
The reason for this project being so financially viable is mainly due to the reduction in
per watt cost of the PV modules over time [42]. As the PV modules are becoming cheaper
it is more economical to produce power through solar PV on a large scale, moreover the
solar plants also need minimal operation and maintenance during their lifetime, hence
once the initial investment recovers in 5 to 6 years, then throughout the module lifetime
of around 25 years, the plant owner can expect a good profit margin [43]. Furthermore,
this is an environmentally friendly technology and does not produce any harmful gases
to the atmosphere [44]. RETScreen was also used to estimate GHG emission reduction for
100 MW solar power plant. To put this into perspective, this same amount of CO2 reduction
means that about 15,000 cars and light trucks are not used for a year [45]. As this project
relies on clean and renewable solar energy, no CO2 , CH4, and N2 O will be emitted during
the plant operation. Furthermore, this project is eligible for carbon credits under the clean
development mechanism (CDM), which can be traded in future for increased revenue.

5. Discussion
Pakistan is a country where there is a high solar potential. In Bahawalpur, with very
little rain and lots of sun, the project is not only feasible but also economical despite the
installation of a power plant requires a heavy investment (i.e., equipment, labor, services,
etc.). In addition, the developed analysis shows that providing the green energy produced
reduces gas consumption and avoids the emission of more than CO2 into the atmosphere
throughout the life cycle of the plant. In other words, renewable energy plays a fundamental
role in a country such as Pakistan. Renewable energy technologies offer, in fact, clean
sources of energy that have a much lower environmental impact than conventional energy
technologies. The importance of the issue is demonstrated by the fact that major global
players such as the multinational Eni S.p.A. are committed to promoting sustainable
development in the countries in which they operate (as part of the energy transition
strategy in which renewable sources play a central role). Eni, through its company Eni New
Energy Pakistan, has started the construction of a new photovoltaic plants in the vicinity of
the Bhit gas field (Eni op. 40%) in Pakistan. This trend obviously derives from the Pakistani
state’s intent not only to be able to stop the vast economic crisis that is gripping the country
but also to cope with the continuous and unbearable blackouts that occur day after day
(an economic crisis that encompasses both energy shortages, political difficulties and fear
Sustainability 2022, 14, 2895 10 of 13

of terrorism, and scarce foreign investment). In addition, it is important to note that the
State Bank of Pakistan and the Council for Alternative Energy Development have decided
to finance (it is said up to five million rupees, about 50 thousand dollars) the installation
of domestic photovoltaic systems. These loans bear the name of “green market” and are
aimed at “solar roofs”. It will take time, but we are convinced that only the use of renewable
or alternative energy. Solar energy will be able to solve the problem of a chronic lack of
electricity in countries such as Pakistan.

6. Directions for Further Research

The analysis of all of the economic aspects related to a photovoltaic system is complex,
considering that each installation must be evaluated considering many aspects (local
conditions, regulations, solar radiation, available areas, etc.). For years, the solution
approach adopted for management decision-making problems has been that provided by
single-criterion linear optimization [46]. The use of this methodological approach allows the
objective to be made explicit and quantified. However, cost-benefit analysis is also usually a
complex decision-making problem in the presence of multiple objectives and the constraints
are often not explicit. In these cases, the use of multicriteria analysis models (MCDM)
allows one to compare and order the alternatives present in the problem on the basis of
data referring to objectives that are often in contrast with each other [47]. The multi-criteria
analysis aims to provide support to the decision maker to achieve an acceptable compromise
between the various objectives pursued. There are different decision-making methods
such as ELECTRE (elimination et choix traduisant la realitè) proposed by Bernard Roy [48],
DEMATEL (decision making trial and evaluation laboratory) proposed by the Geneva
Research Centre of the Battelle Memorial Institute of Geneva [49], VIKOR (vlsekriterijumska
optimizacija i kompromisno resenje) developed by Serafim Opricovic [50], or TOPSIS
(technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution) proposed by Ching-Lai
Hwang and Yoon in 1981 [51]. However, one of the most recognized techniques is AHP
(analytic hierarchy process) which is a multi-criteria decision support technique developed
in the 1970s by the naturalized Iraqi American mathematician Thomas L. Saaty [52]. AHP
is used for a large variety of applications such as allocation of resources; human resources
management; evaluation of employee performance; selection of alternatives; cost/benefit
analysis; and innovation management. Thus, the aim of future research will be to develop
an integrated cost-benefit analysis model enhanced with AHP. In fact, the methodology
allows one to compare several alternatives in relation to a plurality of criteria, quantitative
or qualitative, and to obtain an overall evaluation for each of them. In this way it is
possible to order the alternatives according to an axis of preference; select the globally best
alternative; and assign alternatives to predefined subsets. The main strengths are the paired
comparison of the decision alternatives and the separation between the importance of the
criterion and the impact on the decision [53].

7. Conclusions
In this study a cost benefit analysis for the Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park has been devel-
oped. The model uses the RETScreen software. From the cost benefit analysis of the power
plant, some important conclusions can be drawn:
• The installation of the 100 MW solar PV power plant for Bahawalpur is an example of
decentralization of the power sector.
• A high potential for solar energy can help ameliorate the energy crisis in Pakistan and
substantially decrease GHG emissions.
• QA Solar Power is a lucrative project established by the government aimed at a rated
capacity of 1000 MW of which the first 100 MW QASP is running and supplying
energy to the grid.
• Through RETScreen software, a cost benefit analysis of the project shows that it has a
simple payback of 5.6 years and BCR of 1.33. This project will generate 141,306 MWh
per year and prevent about 90,570t CO2 emissions. This high return shows that such a
Sustainability 2022, 14, 2895 11 of 13

solar PV based projects can be very successful in Pakistan and can help the country to
not only eliminate its energy issues but also strengthen its economy in the long run.
Consequently, the model established in this work can serve as guideline for future
solar photovoltaic projects in Pakistan and can help in the development and utilization
of the huge solar potential of the country, thus aiding in the reduction of energy shortage.
In addition, from the investors’ and a regulation point of view, this model can provide an
overview of cost analysis.

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, M.A. and F.I.M.; methodology, M.A. and F.I.M.; software,
M.A. and F.I.M.; validation, A.P., I.B.; investigation, A.P., I.B., and A.M.; resources, M.A., F.I.M., and
A:P.; writing—original draft preparation, M.A., F.I.M., A.P., I.B., and A.M.; writing—review and
editing, M.A., F.I.M., A.P., I.B., and A.M.; visualization, M.A., F.I.M., A.P., I.B., and A.M.; supervision,
M.A., F.I.M., A.P., I.B., and A.M. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the
manuscript.
Funding: This research received no external funding.
Institutional Review Board Statement: Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement: Not applicable.
Data Availability Statement: Not applicable.
Acknowledgments: The QASP team especially, Engineer Jahanzaib Jamshed and Engineer Kamran
Iqbal for providing relevant data and help for this article.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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