MODULE 5 - Probability PART 2
MODULE 5 - Probability PART 2
MODULE 5 - Probability PART 2
MODULE 5:
PROBABILITY
(Part 2: Conditional Probability,
Independence and Product Rule)
5.1Introduction
The probabilities assigned to various events depend on what is known about the
experimental situation when the assignment is made. Subsequent to the initial assignment, partial
information relevant to the outcome of the experiment may become available. Such information
may cause us to revise some of our probability assignments. For a particular event A, we have used
P(A) to represent the probability, assigned to A; we now think of P(A) as the original, or
unconditional probability, of the event A. In this section, we examine how the information “an event
B has occurred” affects the probability assigned to A. For example, A might refer to an individual
having a particular disease in the presence of certain symptoms. If a blood test is performed on the
individual and the result is negative, then the probability of having the disease will change (it
should decrease, but not usually to zero, since blood tests are not infallible). We will use the P(A|B)
notation to represent the conditional probability of A given that the event B has occurred. B is the
“conditioning event.”
As an example, consider the event A that a randomly selected student at your university
obtained all desired classes during the previous term’s registration cycle. Presumably P(A) is not
very large. However, suppose the selected student is an athlete who gets special registration
priority (the event B). Then P(A|B) should be substantially larger than P(A), although perhaps still
not close to 1.
Example 1: Suppose that our sample space S is the population of adults in a small town who
have completed the requirements for a college degree. We shall categorize them according
to gender and employment status. The data are given below:
One of these individuals is to be selected at random for a tour throughout the country to
publicize the advantages of establishing new industries in the town. What is the probability
that concerns the following events - M: a man is chosen given that E: the one chosen is
employed?
Example 2: The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is P(D) = 0.83;
the probability that it arrives on time is P(A) = 0.82; and the probability that it departs and
arrives on time is P(D ∩A) = 0.78. Find the probability that a plane:
(a) arrives on time, given that it departed on time
(b) departed on time, given that it has arrived on time.
Solution:
Solution:
Independent events are those events whose occurrence is not dependent on any
other event. For example, if we flip a coin in the air and get the outcome as Head, then again
if we flip the coin but this time we get the outcome as Tail. In both cases, the occurrence of
both events is independent of each other. If the probability of occurrence of an event A is
not affected by the occurrence of another event B, then A and B are said to be independent
events.
Example 4: Consider an example of rolling a die. If A is the event ‘the number appearing is odd’ and
B be the event ‘the number appearing is a multiple of 3’, then
Also A and B is the event ‘the number appearing is odd and a multiple of 3’ so that
P(A ∩ B) = 1/6
P (A) = P(A│B) = 1/2 , which implies that the occurrence of event B has not affected the
probability of occurrence of the event A .
5.3.1 Theorem 1
The probability that both A and B occur is equal to the probability that A occurs multiplied
by the conditional probability that B occurs, given that A occurs. Since the events A ∩ B and
B ∩ A are equivalent, it follows that
In other words, it does not matter which event is referred to as A and which event is
referred to as B.
Example 5: Suppose that we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses, of which 5 are defective.
If 2 fuses are selected at random and removed from the box in succession without replacing
the first, what is the probability that both fuses are defective?
Solution: We shall let A be the event that the first fuse is defective and B the event that the
second fuse is defective; then we interpret A ∩ B as the event that A occurs and then B
occurs after A has occurred. The probability of first removing a defective fuse is 1/4; then
the probability of removing a second defective fuse from the remaining 4 is 4/19. Hence,
Example 6: One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black balls, and a second bag contains 3
white balls and 5 black balls. One ball is drawn from the first bag and placed unseen in the
second bag. What is the probability that a ball now drawn from the second bag is black?
Solution: Let B1, B2, and W1 represent, respectively, the drawing of a black ball from bag 1,
a black ball from bag 2, and a white ball from bag 1. We are interested in the union of the
mutually exclusive events B1 ∩ B2 and W1 ∩ B2. The various possibilities and their
probabilities are illustrated in the tree diagram below:
5.3.2 Theorem 2
Example 7: A small town has one fire engine and one ambulance available for emergencies.
The probability that the fire engine is available when needed is 0.98, and the probability
that the ambulance is available when called is 0.92. In the event of an injury resulting from
a burning building, find the probability that both the ambulance and the fire engine will be
available, assuming they operate independently.
Solution: Let A and B represent the respective events that the fire engine and the
ambulance are available. Then,
Example 8: It is known that 30% of a certain company’s washing machines require service
while under warranty, whereas only 10% of its dryers need such service. If someone
purchases both a washer and a dryer made by this company, what is the probability that
both machines will need warranty service?
Solution: Let A denote the event that the washer needs service while under warranty, and
let B be defined analogously for the dryer. Then P(A) =0.30 and P(B) = 0.10 .Assuming that
the two machines will function independently of one another, the desired probability is
Example 9: Each day, Monday through Friday, a batch of components sent by a first
supplier arrives at a certain inspection facility. Two days a week, a batch also arrives from a
second supplier. 80% of all Supplier 1’s batches pass inspection, and 90% of Supplier 2’s do
likewise. What is the probability that, on a randomly selected day, two batches pass
inspection?
Solution: We will answer this assuming that on days when two batches are tested, whether
the first batch passes is independent of whether the second batch does so. The figure below
represents the tree diagram of the scenario.
References:
• Fundamentals of Probability and Statistics for Engineers (8th Ed) by T.T. Soong
• Probability and Statistics: A Course for Physicists and Scientists by A. Mathai and
H. Haubold
• Probability and Statistics For Engineers and Scientists (9e) by Walpole and
Myers
• Schaum’s Outlines of Probability and Statistics (4th Ed.) by M. Spiegel, J. Schiler,
and A. Srinivasan
• Statistics and Probability for Engineering Application by W.J. DeCoursey
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