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There are about 6.8 billion of us.

Each year, we add about 83 million more people


to the word’s population. This growth is expected to continue, reaching 9.5 billion
by 2050, with most of this growth occurring in the world’s middle-and low-income
countries . This raises an important question: Can we provide an adequate
standard of living for a projected 2.7 billion more people by 2050 without causing
wide-spread environmental damage? There is disagreement over the answer to
this question. According to one view, the planet already has too many people
collectively degrading the earth’s life-support system. To some analysts, the key
problem is overpopulation because ofthe sheer number of people in developing
countries, which have 82% of the world’s population. To others, the key factor is
overconsumption in affluent developed countries because of their high rates of
resource use per person. Excessive and wasteful resource consumption per
person in developed countries—and to an increasing extent in rapidly developing
countries such as China and India. People who hold the general view that
overpopulation or overconsump-tion are causing major environmental problems
argue that slow-ing human population growth is an important priority.Another
view is that technological advances have allowed us to overcome the
environmental resistance that all popula-tions face and to increase the earth’s
carrying capacity for our species. Some analysts believe that because of our
technological ingenuity, there are few, if any, limits to human population growth
and resource use per person. They also con-tend that population growth
stimulates economic growth by increasing the number of resource consumers. As
a result, they see no need to slow the world’s population growth. Some people
view efforts to slow population growth as a violation of their religious or moral
beliefs. Others see it as an intrusion into their privacy and personal freedom to
have as many children as they want. These people also tend to oppose efforts to
slow human population growth.Proponents of slowing and eventually stopping
population growth point out that we are not providing the basic necessities for
about one of every five people—who struggle to survive on the equivalent of
$1.25 per day. The number of people living in extreme poverty today—1.4 billion
—is larger than China’s entire population and 4.6 times the population of the
United States. This raises a serious question: If we fail to meet the basic needs for
1.4 billion people today, what will hap-pen in 2050 when there may be 2.7 billion
more of us?

They also warn of two serious consequences if we do not sharply lower birth
rates. First, death rates may increase because of declining health and
environmental conditions in some areas, as is already happening in parts of Africa.
Second, resource use and degradation of normally renewable resources may
intensify as more consumers increase their already large ecological footprints in
developed countries and in rapidly developing countries. This debate over
whether there are limits on human popula-tion growth and resource consumption
is one of the most impor-tant and controversial issues in environmental science.

Key Questions and Concepts

6-1 How many people can the earth support?

CONCEPT 6-1 We do not know how long we can continue increasing the earth’s
carrying capacity for humans without seriously degrading the life support system
that keeps us and many other species alive.

6-2 What factors influence the size of the human

population?

CONCEPT 6-2A Population size increases through births and immigration and
decreases through deaths and emigration.

CONCEPT 6-2B The average number of children born to women in a population


(total fertility rate) is the key factor that determines population size.

6-3 How does a population’s age structure affect its

growth or decline?
CONCEPT 6-3 The numbers of males and females in young, middle, and older
age groups determine how fast a population grows or declines.

6-4 How can we slow human population growth?

CONCEPT 6-4 We can slow human population growth by reducing poverty,


encouraging family planning, and elevating the status of women.

6-5 What are the major urban resource and environmental problems?

CONCEPT 6-5 Most cities are unsustainable because of high levels of resource use,
waste, pollution, and poverty.

6-6 How does transportation affect urban

environmental impacts?

CONCEPT 6-6 In some countries, most people live in dispersed urban areas and
depend mostly on motor vehicles for their transportation.

6-7 How can cities become more sustainable and livable?

CONCEPT 6-7 An ecocity allows people to choose walking, biking, or mass transit
for most transportation needs; recycle or reuse most of their wastes; grow much
of their food; and protect biodiversity by preserving surrounding land.

6-1. How Many People Can the Earth Support?

Human Population Growth Continues but It Is Unevenly Distributed Over the


course of history, human population growth was slow, as depicted on the left side
of Figure 1-10. However, in the past 200 years, there has been a rapid and
exponential growth in the human population, leading to the characteristic J-
shaped curve This population increase can be attributed to three major factors:

First, humans developed the ability to expand into almost all of the planet’s
climate zones and habi-tats. Second, the emergence of early and modern agri-
culture allowed us to grow more food for each unit of land area farmed. Third,
death rates dropped sharply because of improved sanitation and health care and
development of antibiotics and vaccines to help control infectious diseases. Thus,
most of the increase in the world’s population during the last 100 years took
place because of a sharp drop in death rates—not a sharp rise in birth rates.

We Do Not Know How Long the Human Population Can Keep Growing

To survive and provide resources for growing num-bers of people, humans have
modified, cultivated, built on, and degraded a large and increasing portion of the
earth’s natural systems. Our activities have directly affected, to some degree,
about 83% of the earth’s land surface, excluding Antarctica, as our ecological
footprints have spread across the globe. We have used technology to alter natural
systems to meet our growing needs and wants in eight major ways. Scientific
studies of populations of other species tell us that no population can continue
growing indefinitely. How long can we continue to increase the earth’s carrying
capacity for our species by sidestepping many of the factors that sooner or later
limit thegrowth of any population?No one knows how close we are to
environmental limits that will control the size of the human population, but
mounting evidence indicates that we are steadily degrading the natural capital
that keeps us and other species alive and supports our economies . How many
people can the earth support indefi-nitely? Some say about 2 billion. Others say
as many as 50 billion. Some analysts believe this is the wrong question. Instead,
they believe,we should ask what is the planet’s cultural carrying capacity. This
would be the max-imum number of people that the earth could support at a
reasonable level of comfort and freedom without impairing the planet’s ability to
sustain future genera-tions in the same way. (See the Guest Essay by Gar-rett
Hardin at CengageNOW™.) Choosing whether or not and how to reach such a goal
is primarily an ethical decision based on values that differ widely.

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