International Journal of Education and Research Vol. 7 No.

12 December 2019

THE COMPARISON ANALYSIS OF PRECAST AND CONVENTIONAL

METHODS OF THE PROJECT WORKING TIME
(PROJECT OF FLAT X IN JAKARTA CAPITAL REGION)

Arviga Bigwanto, Irawan Tani

Program Studi Magister Teknik Sipil
Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi
Universitas Pelita Harapan
Email: arvigabigwantoo@gmail.com irawan.tani@ec-lyon.f

The Jakarta Capital Region is one of the most populous regions with a population of 10.4
million people as of 2017, so the need of residential is very important. The construction of flats with
more than 10,000 every year is carried out by the government.
This study aims to: Find out and compare the probability of the project work time in the flats X if
the project with the precast method and how if by the conventional methods. The study was
conducted at the high-level flats X in Jakarta Capital Region. The tests conducted in this research
were carried out by Monte Carlo analysis using the crystal ball software through some stages such
as the normal distribution and triangular distribution to get the probability results of the work on
each floor.
The results of this research indicate that the conventional method only has a 10% probability
to approach the project planning time, while the use of the precast method has a 90% probability.
Overall the precast method has the fastest chance or probability in 114 days (10% probability) when
compared with conventional methods in 152 days. The results of the mean probability (50%), the
precast method has a completion time of 120 working days and the conventional method takes 162
days. In order to get the highest probability of the project completion time (90%), the precast
method has a 125 days processing time while the conventional method requires 172 days of
completion.

Keywords: Precast Method, Conventional Method, and Time

1. Introduction
The needs for residential are very important for the residence, for example the Central
Agency on Statistics (BPS) shows that The Jakarta Capital Region (DKI Jakarta) is one of the most
populous regions with a population of 10.4 million people per 2017 and an area of 661.5 km2. Flats
are considered able to meet the needs of the residence of DKI Jakarta which always grow every
year, so that the construction of flats in DKI Jakarta is always above 10,000 units. One of the
contractors in Indonesia, PT BAP, is a contractor trusted by the government to build the high level
flats X. There are the differences between the auction drawings and drawings for information that
have been obtained, caused by the process of adjusting to the regional plan and changes in the use
of some structural components from conventional to precast.

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Figure 1. Construction of a residential in DKI Jakarta 2000-2015

El Razek et al (2008) indicated that the modification of the contract as a result of a design change
by the project owner and the specifications became one of the causes of the slow project. Whereas
the important parameters in the implementation of construction project, which is often used as
project target is project performance consisting of budget efficiency, timeliness, and good quality
(Messah et al., 2013). Tarigan et al (2019) and Putri et al (2014) indicate that the use of precast
method is more beneficial both in terms of the time of the work and the cost of rental of tools
therefore the pre-cast method will be more profitable when it is done in the big project because
Access to Tower Crane mobilization. Another researcher, Wijaksono et al (2018), showed different
things and assumed that precast methods are more efficient in terms of time but cost is not more
efficient than conventional methods. But Assaf and Al Heiji (2006) and Sandyavitri (2008) in the
results of his research argue that the existence of design changes or methods can trigger the impact
of losses in terms of time and also costs.
Project delays can be a domino effect on management, because the impact that can be felt
directly from project delays is the increase in costs (Sambasivan and Soon., 2007 and Kaliba et al.,
2009). Changes in construction methods are acceptable, but the immediate impact of such changes
should be understood the potential consequences of scheduling and costs for each of those changes
(Douglas, 2003). Therefore, a construction management is required to analyse and evaluate the
alteration of a method to another method.
Problem on the Research: (1) How is the result of a comparative duration of project
completion time with the use of conventional methods and precast methods? (2) How is the
probability of the use of precast and conventional methods against the time of project work? (3)
How is the effect of using precast method when compared to conventional methods?
Research Objectives: (1) Looking for the results of schedule comparison of the plan and the
duration of the project using precast and Conventional methods, (2) seeking to know the probability
results from the use of precast and conventional methods against the project time , (3) Knowing the
impact of using precast method when compared to conventional methods.

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2. Literature Study
2.1 Precast Concrete
Precast can be interpreted as a production process of building structures/architectural
elements in a location different from the location where the structural/architectural elements will be
used. The superiority of precast concrete is the duration of the project can be faster, continuity of
the construction process can be maintained, mass production of the manufacturer, can reduce the
cost of supervision of supervisor consultants, producing a proven quality of concrete and better. The
weakness of the use of precast concrete is the process of moving the precast concrete elements from
the production site (factory) to the project location requires additional costs, erection process that
also requires a crane tool, to apply the Connect tool or the right level of connection is required a
relatively expensive cost (Ervianto, 2006).

2.2 Conventional Concrete

Conventional concrete can be interpreted as a production process of building/architectural
elements in a location similar to the location where the structural/architectural elements will be
used, conventional concrete in the implementation is planned in advance, all the work of the casting
is done manually (Mulyono, 2004). The advantages of concrete with conventional methods are easy
and common in field work, easily formed in various sections, calculations are relatively easy and
common, the connection of column beams and floor plates is monoliths. The lack of conventional
methods is required by the manpower of more workers, the use of relatively more formwork, the job
in the development is somewhat prolonged because the workmanship sequentially interdependent
with other work, affected by the weather.

2.3 Time Management

The project submission must not exceed the specified time limit, therefore it is necessary to
have time management in order for the project to be in accordance with the planning (Gardjito,
2017). Time management means entering all the processes needed in the project to ensure project
completion time (PMI, 2000). The main process in project time management is the process of
identifying all activities, sorting processes, estimated activity duration, development schedule which
means determining when an activity in the project will start and when to complete, schedule control
is a process to ensure that the performance is done in accordance with the allotted time allocation.
On the implementation of construction projects, project delays often occur. Abedi et al
(2011) shows that delays can cause some negative things, i.e. additional workmanship, additional
costs, disputes (between contractors, owner and others), arbitrage (when delays become a problem
then it must be resolved by the third party), the court process (when the delay becomes a major
problem), and Abandontment. The impact of loss on delays can be shown by Figure 2.1.

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Figure 2.1. Fish bone diagram of six effect of the construction delay

2.4 Time Analysis

Time analysis is important in the implementation of construction work, because the cost that
will be issued at the time of implementation is closely related to the execution time of the work as
well as the execution time that has a close connection with Expenses incurred (Gardjito, 2017).
There are several ways of analyzing the work time of this research project using the Monte Carlo
simulation to determine the probability analysis of project execution time when the project is using
precast method or when the project uses Conventional methods.

2.5 Probability with Monte Carlo Simulation

Uncertainty in the project can be categorized as risk in implementing the project, a solution
that can be done against uncertainty is to implement probabilistic scheduling. Monte Carlo
simulation can be used to integrate the time of a project by using randomly selected values from a
probability distribution of time that may occur with the aim of calculating the distribution of
possible total time from A project. Project Management Institute (2004) explains that in the field of
project management, a Monte Carlo simulation is used to calculate or iterate the time of a project
using randomly selected values of the distribution Probability of time that may occur with the aim
of calculating the possible distribution of total time from a project.
Prior to analysis using the method of Monte Carlo researchers will search for data from some
estimates of the duration of the project activity, such as optimistic estimate is the duration used to
settle something when everything goes Well, the ideal time estimate is the duration of time used to
accomplish something that is most possible, and a pessimistic estimate that is the duration required
to complete an activity when everything is in the condition does not support.

Figure 2.2. Example of Probabilitic Distribution

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3. Research Methodology
This study aims to determine the probability of the use of precast methods and conventional
methods on the contruction of flat X using the Monte Carlo simulation. This research Model is
quantitative descriptive research with survey research used in this research to find out about
estimated project implementation time by writing development method change, in this case research
Survey by observing the state of the project and get the data directly from the contractor that built
the high-level flat X in DKI Jakarta.

3.1 Data
There are some data used in this research such as project completion time planning data obtained
directly from the Contracting Party, after which other data is optimistic estimate, ideal time
estimate, and a pessimistic Estimate obtained through the questionnaire after all data obtained next
the researcher will look for probability with a Monte Carlo simulation through the Crystall ball
software which is an add-ins of Microsoft Excel.

3.2 Monte Carlo Simulation project Execution time

The step before performing a Monte Carlo simulation is to determine the number of iterations using
Microsoft Excel by looking up the standard deviation, looking for the average data obtained and
testing it using the 1000 times trial literation.
The Monte Carlo simulation at the time of the project will be conducted several times by using data
derived from the questionnaire data that is spread by researchers, the data to be analyzed is
optimistic estimate, ideal time estimate, and Pessimistic estimate. Data obtained from the
questionnaire is then input by researchers into the software crystal ball using normal distribution
and triangular distribution. Figure 3.1 and 3.2 shows how to choose Normal distribution data and
Triangular distribution in crystal ball software.

Figure 3.1. Choose Asumption Cells (Triangular distribution and Normal Distribution)

At the stage of Figure 3.1 researchers use Asumption cells then choose triangular distribution to get
the mean result and standard deviation from the results of the questionnaire through 1000x iteration.

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Figure 3.2. Input Optimistic Estimate, Ideal Time Estimate, Pessimistic Estimate and Standard
Deviation, Mean Value

In the left image shows triangular distribution where the data used is optimistic estimate, ideal time
estimate, and the pessimistic estimate after which the output result will be obtained is the default
value of deviation and mean that later will be input in normal distribution on the right image that
aims to get the probability results.

4. Finding and Discussion

4.1 Precast
The results showed that the standard value of deviation and mean through triangular
distribution in the use of precast method of each job floor is:
Job Standart Deviation Mean
Floor 1 1.41 9,42
Floor 2 1.25 9,43
Floor 3 1.02 9,33
Floor 4 0.97 9,31
Floor 5 1.18 9,50
Floor 6 0.89 8,66
Floor 7 0.94 9,21
Floor 8 1.11 8,96
Floor 9 1.25 9,42
Floor 10 0.94 9,27
Floor 11 1.16 9,07
Floor 12 1.20 8,89
Erection 1.31 9,44
Table 4.1. Result Triangular Distribution (Standard Deviation and Mean)

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The result of standard deviation and mean is then used in this study to conduct a normal distribution
analysis:
Jobs -1 Standart Deviation Mean 1 Standart Deviation
Floor 1 8,04 9,42 10,80
Floor 2 8,15 9,43 10,70
Floor 3 8,29 9,33 10,36
Floor 4 8,32 9,31 10,31
Floor 5 8,33 9,50 10,68
Floor 6 7,80 8,66 9,52
Floor 7 8,29 9,21 10,14
Floor 8 7,78 8,96 10,13
Floor 9 8,14 9,42 10,69
Floor 10 8,33 9,27 10,21
Floor 11 7,88 9,07 10,25
Floor 12 7,67 8,89 10,11
Erection 8,16 9,44 10,73
Table 4.2. Result Normal Distribution Precast (-1 )

The other result is the probability of normal distribution, the probability graph can be seen from the
graph 4.1 to 4.13

Chart 4.1 Analysis probability of execution time on the 1st floor

Chart 4.2 Analysis probability of execution time on the 2nd floor

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Chart 4.3 Analysis Probability Of Execution Time On The 3rd Floor

Chart 4.4 Analysis probability of execution time on the 4th floor

Chart 4.5 Analysis probability of execution time on the 5th floor

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Chart 4.6 Analysis probability of execution time on the 6th floor

Chart 4.7 Analysis probability of execution time on the 7th floor

Chart 4.8 Analysis probability of execution time on the 8th floor

Chart 4.9 Analysis probability of execution time on the 9th floor

Chart 4.10 Analysis Probability of execution time on the 10th floor

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Chart 4.11 Analysis Probability of execution time on the 11th floor

Chart 4.12 Analysis Probability of execution time on the 12th floor

Chart 4.13 Analysis of probability of execution time on Erection work

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From the chart results can be concluded in table 4.3

Probability 10% 50% 90%
Floor 1 7,82 9,61 11,56
Floor 2 7,58 9,42 11,01
Floor 3 7,73 9,26 10,61
Floor 4 7,95 9,25 10,43
Floor 5 7,89 9,55 11,08
Floor 6 7,36 8,65 9,56
Floor 7 7,90 9,22 10,48
Floor 8 7,52 9,01 10,36
Floor 9 7,244 9,528 11,358
Floor 10 7,97 9,31 10,54
Floor 11 7,54 8,97 10,38
Floor 12 7,25 8,90 10,33
Erection 7,48 9,47 11,02
Table 4.3. Results of a simulation of Monte Carlo Precast method

Probability analysis results indicate that precast method is likely to be faster than the planned
work time. Subsequent researchers conducted a probability analysis on conventional methods
for the end result compared to the time of the project plan.

4.1 Conventional Method

Table 4.4 shows the results of triangular distribution (standard deviation and mean) of the
use of precast method in the project Stacking House X.
Jobs Standard Deviation Mean
Floor 1 2.36 17,67
Floor 2 2.06 15,41
Floor 3 2.12 15,40
Floor 4 2.96 17,96
Floor 5 1.94 15,00
Floor 6 1.91 14,79
Floor 7 1.93 15,19
Floor 8 1.88 14,81
Floor 9 2.69 16,23
Floor 10 4.57 15,44
Floor 11 1.92 15,06
Floor 12 1.98 14,74
Table 4.4. Result Triangular Distribution (Standard Deviation and Mean)

The result of standard deviation and mean is then used in this study to conduct a normal distribution
analysis,
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Jobs -1 Standart Deviasi Mean 1 Standart Deviasi

Floor 1 12,90 15,29 17,67
Floor 2 11,21 13,31 15,41
Floor 3 11,13 13,27 15,40
Floor 4 12,02 14,99 17,96
Floor 5 11,10 13,05 15,00
Floor 6 10,89 12,84 14,79
Floor 7 11,13 13,16 15,19
Floor 8 11,12 12,97 14,81
Floor 9 10,85 13,54 16,23
Floor 10 10,96 13,20 15,44
Floor 11 11,23 13,15 15,06
Floor 12 10,71 12,72 14,74
Table 4.5 Result Normal Distribution Conventional Method (-1 )

The Output obtained from this result is the probability of 1000x iteration, the probability can be
seen in the 4.14 chart up to 4.24,

Graph 4.14 Probability analysis on Floor 1st work

Graph 4.15 Probability analysis on Floor 2nd work

Chart 4.16 Probability Analysis On Floor 3th Work

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Chart 4.17 Probability Analysis On Floor 4th Work

Chart 4.18 Probability Analysis On Floor 5th Work

Chart 4.19 Probability Analysis On Floor 6th Work

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Chart 4.20 Probability Analysis On Floor 7th Work

Chart 4.21 Probability Analysis On Floor 8th Work

Chart 4.22 Probability Analysis On Floor 9th Work

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Chart 4.23 Probability Analysis On Floor 10th Work

Chart 4.24 Probability Analysis On Floor 11th Work

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Chart 4.25 Probability Analysis On Floor 12th Work

Probability 10% 50% 90%

Floor 1 11,94 15,26 18,04
Floor 2 10,25 13,39 15,82
Floor 3 10,23 13,36 15,83
Floor 4 11,19 14,93 18,58
Floor 5 9,94 12,98 15,36
Floor 6 9,97 12,81 15,12
Floor 7 10,30 13,18 15,47
Floor 8 10,36 13,05 15,24
Floor 9 9,61 13,52 16,62
Floor 10 10,28 13,36 15,81
Floor 11 10,16 13,03 15,35
Floor 12 9,78 12,82 15,17
Table 4.6 Results of Monte Carlo conventional method simulation

Table 4.6 shows the probability of each job using conventional methods, while the black line on the
chart of the probability of conventional methods represents the project planning percentage of
projects using conventional methods. Table 4.7 shows the probability on the overall total work on
the use of precast and conventional methods.

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Percentile Forecast values Precast Forecast values Conventional

10% 114.78 151.66
20% 116.47 155.91
30% 117.98 158.15
40% 119.08 160.27
50% 120.12 162.49
60% 121.38 164.40
70% 122.47 166.45
80% 123.69 169.06
90% 125.35 172.03
Table 4.7 Total probability work Precast and conventional methods
Precast method has the most fast time probability of 115 days (10%) and has a mean of 120
days (50%) and has the biggest possibility of completion of 125 days (90%), while the conventional
method has the lowest probability of 151 days (5%) and has a mean of 162 days (50%) and has the
biggest possibility of completion which is 172 days with probability 90%.
From comparative analysis results can be concluded that precast method has a faster
working time when compared with conventional methods. Almost all precast work methods have a
day efficiency when compared to project planning while the use of conventional methods has a time
difference of 3 days from the planning of the work time. Meanwhile, in the first stage work is the
first floor, the contractor has a plan longer than the other work because in its work on the first floor
there are advanced foundation and landfill work and has a volume of work Larger than other floors,
and at this stage the use of precast method has a time efficiency of up to 5 days while the
conventional methods have the possibility of time to match the project plan can occur because
There is an acceleration on the work of floor plates, beams and columns. Jobs using conventional
methods have the possibility to approach project completion planning but only have a probability of
approaching 10%, while the use of precast methods can approach a probability of 80% untill 90% it
can Viewed in table 4.8.
Probability when using Probability when using
Jobs Time Plan conventional methods Precast Methods
Floor 1 15 42% 117%
Floor 2 10 9,76% 81,74%
Floor 3 10 9,78% 84,83%
Floor 4 10 8,94% 86,29%
Floor 5 10 10,06% 81,23%
Floor 6 10 10,03% 94,14%
Floor 7 10 9,71% 85,88%
Floor 8 10 9,65% 86,87%
Floor 9 10 10,41% 79,24%
Floor 10 10 9,73% 85,39%
Floor 11 10 9,84% 86,71%
Floor 12 10 10,22% 87,12%
Erection 10 81,67%
Table 4.8 Time plan with conventional method probability
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5. Conclusion and Recomendation

The analysis results of the comparison of precast methods and conventional methods based
on the time of the project is, on the work of the 2nd floor until Floor 12 use precast method has a
more efficient work one day from the project planning time while the use of conventional methods
on average has a difference of three days longer than the project planning time. The use of
conventional methods only has a probability of 10% when wanting to approach the project planning
time while the use of precast method has a probability of 80% untill 90%. Overall the use of precast
method has the most immediate odds or probability 114 days (probability 10%) When compared to
conventional methods 152 days. If you see the mean result probability (50%) Precast methods have
a completion time of 120 working days and conventional methods require a time of 162 days. And
when it is likely to be the highest probability in project completion time (90%) Precast method has a
working time of 125 days while conventional methods require a 172 day completion.
Recommendation for PT BAP, the use of precast method will be ideal in terms of the time of
the work Rusun X. With the completion of the time in accordance with the plan or even faster
expected to affect other things, such as costs incurred more efficiently than that quality with the use
of precast method can also be better because the concrete production process is carried out using the
machine in a mass and according to the procedure Careful supervision. Recommendations for the
next researcher should not only do comparisons in terms of time but the quality of the project
should also be taken into account. In terms of cost would be more expensive to use precast therefore
in this study is not examined in terms of costs, other than that the use of comparisons using other
parametric statistical methods are worth trying to have comparisons when in analysis using different
methods with Monte Carlo mode.

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