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Demographic Projection Model

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92 views

Demographic Projection Model

Uploaded by

prabhajeswin
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Demographic Projection Model

Demography refers to the study of population variables such as the changing numbers
of births and deaths within a defined population. The major concern for demographers
is to examine population variables in a country over a period of time. They use various
methods to obtain these variables. It include
1. Census: Census is described as the total process of collecting, compiling and
publishing of the demographic, economic and social data at a specified time
concerning all the persons living in a country
2. Partial enumeration; This refers to the type of enumeration carried out for a
specific purpose. For example an enumeration may be conducted to identify the
school age population for a level of education in an area. It may be conducted
to identify the need for vocational education by adult learners in an area. It is
not like census where every head in a country is expected to be counted.
3. Sample survey: This is semi census where by information pertaining to a
fraction of entire population is collected. Sample surveys are mostly used to
cross checking the census figure.
4. Vital Registration: This involves recording vital events in a population like
live births, deaths, marriage, divorces, adoptions, separation and migration.
The population equation is given by
P2=P1+B-D+I-E
P2- Updated population
D- Deaths
P1- Current population
B- Births

Two Factors to be considered in planning the location of educational


institution
Planning school location
Two factors are very crucial and must be seriously considered in planning the
location of educational institution. They are
The population sizes
The catchments area to be served by the institutions
1. The population sizes
There must be a certain number of primary or secondary going age
populations living within an area to justify the establishment of a school.
2. The catchment area
In educational planning catchment area is the area an institution should serve . The
area to be served by an institution should not be far off so that pupils can easily access
the school from their homes.

Relation between education and demography


Education has to do with the transmission of cultural heritage from one generation
to another. On the other hand, demography is the scientific study of certain
characteristics of human population. These include the size growth structure
distribution and occupation.
Demographic study is very important to education especially educational planning.
this is because all quantitative analysis of educational planning depend on the data and
information of people living in a geographical area such as country state local
government area community and so on.

 Demographic development has become a source of planning.


 Estimating the population that future educational system is to serve.
 Useful to take decision on new school permission.
 The estimation of demographic developments has become the source of the
planning criteria in its own right.
 Demographic projection model describes the development of population over a
time period in terms of events.
 The projection process includes development of production and distribution.
 Thus in every approach of planning, the demographic is used, as this provides
essential information about the population for which planning is to be done.
 They provide the most basic parameters for estimating the population that a
future educational system is to be score.
 Estimation of the age size of the age to be served by a certain level of the
educational system as a specific future point in time serves as a criterion for
some kind of educational planning.
 In most societies size of age is rather reliably known at least five or six years
before it enters the first year of formal schooling and many more years before
secondary and tertiary institutions are attended.
Population structure and its effects on education
Educational planners may be concerned with the distribution of the population for
various reasons.
First they may be interested in distribution by age and sex. This enables them to
measure the relative size of the school-age population which is foundation and the
point of departure for any educational policy.
Second, they may be concerned with the distribution of the population by sector of
economic activity.
Without accurate knowledge of the distribution by sector and occupation, it is
impossible to estimate man power requirements and hence to determine targets for
technical, vocational and higher education.
Third planners may be concerned with the geographical distribution of the
population, which affects both the cost of education and the choice of types sizes and
locations of schools.
Our examination of population structure will be confined to the three above
mentioned aspects.
Uses of population projections
It is important to have high quality statistics on the population and projections of the
population, for policy development and for planning and providing public services.
Their uses include,
 Childcare and schools planning
 Housing and land uses planning
 Health care planning
 Modelling and projecting health care indicators

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