Probability

Objectives

At the end of this lecture students will

be familiar with some basic concept of
probability.

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 Introduction
People use the term probability many
times each day. For example, physician
says that a patient has a 50-50 chance
of surviving a certain operation.
Another physician may say that she is
95% certain that a patient has a
particular disease

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 Probability
 Probability is a measure of how likely
an event is to occur.
 For example –
 Today there is a 60% chance of
rain.
 The odds of winning the lottery are
a million to one.
 What are some examples you can
think of?
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 Probability
 Probabilities are written as:

 Fractions from 0 to 1

 Decimals from 0 to 1

 Percent from 0% to 100%

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 Probability
 If an event is certain to happen, then
the probability of the event is 1 or
100%.
 If an event will NEVER happen, then
the probability of the event is 0 or
0%.
 If an event is just as likely to happen
as to not happen, then the probability
of the event is ½, 0.5 or 50%.
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 Probability

Impossible Unlikely Equal Chances Likely Certain

0 0.5 1
0% 50% 100%

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 Probability
 When a meteorologist states that the
chance of rain is 50%, the
meteorologist is saying that it is
equally likely to rain or not to rain.
 If the chance of rain rises to 80%, it
is more likely to rain.
 If the chance drops to 20%, then it
may rain, but it probably will not rain.
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 Probability
 What are some events that will never
happen and have a probability of 0%?
 What are some events that are
certain to happen and have a
probability of 100%?
 What are some events that have
equal chances of happening and have a
probability of 50%?

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 Probability
 The probability of an event is written:

P(event) = number of ways event can occur

total number of outcomes

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 Definition
 Experiment ==> is any process that
can be repeated in which the results
are uncertain.

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 Definition
 Sample space: collection of unique, non-
overlapping possible outcomes of a random
circumstance.
 Simple event: one outcome in the sample
space; a possible outcome of a random
circumstance.
 Event: a collection of one or more simple
events in the sample space; often written as
A, B, C, and so on
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 Definition
Complement ==> sometimes, we want to know
the probability that an event will not happen;
an event opposite to the event of interest is
called a complementary event.
If A is an event, its complement is The
probability of the complement is AC or A

Example: The complement of male event is the

female
P(A) + P(AC) = 1
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 Methods for determining the
probability of an event
1-Subjective:
It is an estimate that reflects a person’s
opinion, or best guess about whether an
outcome will occur.
Important in medicine  form the basis of a
physician’s opinion (based on information
gained in the history and physical examination)
about whether a patient has a specific disease.
Such estimate can be changed with the results
of diagnostic procedures.
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 Methods for determining the
probability cont.
2- Classical:
 It is well known that the probability of
flipping a fair coin and getting a “tail” is
0.50.
 If a coin is flipped 10 times, is there a
guarantee, that exactly 5 tails will
be observed

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 Methods for determining
the probability cont.
3- Empirical:
Assuming that an experiment can be repeated
many times and assuming that there are one
or more outcomes that can result from each
repetition. Then, the probability of a given
outcome is the number of times that outcome
occurs divided by the total number of
repetitions.
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Probability theory is based on the
three axioms stated by Kolmogorov:
 1. The probability that each event will occur must
be greater than or equal to 0 and less than or
equal to 1.
 2. The sum of the probabilities of all the mutually
exclusive outcomes of the sample space is equal to
1.
 3. The probability that either of two mutually
exclusive events, A or B, will occur is the sum of
the probabilities of their individual probabilities.

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 Marginal probabilities
 Named so because they appear on the
“margins” of a probability table. It is
probability of single outcome

 Example: P(Male), P(Blood group A)

P(Male) = number of males/total
number of subjects = 50/100 = 0.5

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Problem 1
Blood Males Females Total
Group

O 20 20 40
A 17 18 35
B 8 7 15
AB 5 5 10

Total 50 50 100

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 Conditional probabilities
 It is the probability of an event on
condition that certain criteria is satisfied
 Example: If a subject was selected
randomly and found to be female what is
the probability that she has a blood group
O. Here the total possible outcomes
constitute a subset (females) of the total
number of subjects.
 This probability is termed probability of O
given F P(O\F) = 20/50 = 0.40
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 Joint probability
It is the probability of occurrence of
two or more events together
Example: Probability of being male &
belong to blood group AB
P(M and AB)= P(M∩AB) = 5/100 = 0.05
∩ = intersection

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Rules of probability

1- Multiplication rule

Independence and multiplication rule

P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)

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P(A) P(B\A)

P(B)

A and B are independent

P(B\A) = P(B) 23
 Example:
The joint probability of being male and having
blood type O
To know that two events are independent
compute the marginal and conditional
probabilities of one of them if they are equal
the two events are independent. If not equal
the two events are dependent
P(O) = 40/100 = 0.40
P(O\M) = 20/50 = 0.40
Then the two events are independent
P(O∩M)=P(O)P(M)=(40/100)(50/100)= 0.20
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Rules of probability
1- Multiplication rule

Dependence and
the modified multiplication rule

P(A and B) = P(A) P(B\A)

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P(A)
P(B\A)

P(B)

A and B are not independent

P(B\A) ≠ P(B) 26
 Problem 2
An outbreak of food poisoning occurs in a
group of students who attended a party

Ill Not Ill Total

Ate Barbecue 90 30 120

Did Not Eat Barbecue 20 60 80

Total 110 90 200

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 Example:
The joint probability of being ill and eat
barbecue
P(Ill) = 110/200 = 0.55
P(Ill\Eat B) = 90/120 = 0.75
Then the two events are dependent
P(Eat B∩Ill) = P(Eat B)P(Ill\Eat B)
= (120/200)(90/120)
= 0.45
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Rules of probability

2- Addition rule

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A and B are mutually exclusive
The occurrence of one event precludes
the occurrence of the other

Addition
Rule

P(A) P(B)

P(A OR B) = P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B)

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 Example:
The probability of being either blood
type O or blood type A
P(OUA) = P(O) + P(A)
= (40/100)+(35/100)
= 0.75

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 A and B are non mutually exclusive
(Can occur together)
Example: Male and smoker

P(A) P(B)

P(A ∩ B)

P(A OR B) = P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)

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 Example:
Two events are not mutually exclusive
(male gender or blood type O).
P(M OR O)= P(M)+P(O) – P(M∩O)
= 0.50 + 0.40 – 0.20
= 0.70

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 Exercise 1:
If tuberculous meningitis had a case fatality of 20%,
(a) Find the probability that this disease would be
fatal in two randomly selected patients (the two
events are independent)
(b) If two patients are selected randomly what is the
probability that at least one of them will die?
(a) P(first die and second die) = 20%  20% = 0.04
(b) P(first die or second die)
= P(first die) + P(second die) - P(both die)
= 20% + 20% - 4% = 36%
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 Exercise 2:
In a normally distributed population, the probability
that a subject’s blood cholesterol level will be lower
than 1 SD below the mean is 16% and the probability
of being blood cholesterol level higher than 2 SD
above the mean is 2.5%. What is the probability that a
randomly selected subject will have a blood
cholesterol level lower than 1 SD below the mean or
higher than 2 SD above the mean.
P(blood cholesterol level < 1 SD below the mean or 2
SD above the mean) = 16% + 2.5% = 18.5%
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 Exercise 3:
In a study of the optimum dose of lignocaine
required to reduce pain on injection of an
intravenous agent used for induction of
anesthesia, four dosing groups were
considered (group A received no lignocaine,
while groups B, C, and D received 0.1, 0.2, and
0.4 mg/kg, respectively). The following table
shows the patients cross-classified by dose
and pain score:

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 Exercise 3 cont.
Compute the following
probabilities for a
randomly selected Pain Group Total
patient: score

1.being of group D and A B C D

experiencing no pain 0 49 73 58 62 242
2.belonging to group B or 1 16 7 7 8 38
having a pain score of 2 2 8 5 6 6 25
3 4 1 0 0 5
3.having a pain score of 3
Total 77 86 71 76 310
given that he belongs to
group A
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Thanks for …….

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