PrObabilitY

THeOrY
Istiono, SE., MBA.
 Definition
Probability is a value from 0 to 1, which
describes the relative probability or probability
that an event will occur. If the probability is
equal to zero, that event will definitely not
occur. For example, the probability of the sun
rising from the west. If the probability is equal
to one it means that the event must have
occurred. For example, the chance of rain in
Indonesia this year.
 Approaches in Probability
There are two approaches in determining
probability, namely an objective and subjective
approach. Objective probabilities consist of (1)
classical probabilities and (2) empirical
probabilities.
 Classical Probability
Classical probabilities are also called
mathematical or theoretical probabilities that
all results from an experiment have an equal
chance. The probability of an event is calculated
by the formula:

Number of results expected

Probability 
The total number of possible outcomes
 Example 2.1
A coin is tossed once. There are two possible outcomes of this
experiment, namely the head and tail sides.
a. What is the probability of the side of the head (A) appearing?
b. What is the probability of the tail side (B) appearing?
Answer:
a. The probability of the side of the head appearing (A) is:
P( A)  1 2  0,5  50%

b. The probability of the tail side appearing (B) is:

P( B )  1 2  0,5  50%
 Example 2.2
An experiment throws a six sided dice. There are six possible
outcomes:
- One dot - Three dots - Five dots
- Two dots - Four dots - Six dots
a. What is the probability of the side dot 2 appearing?
b. What is the probability that the side of the even dot appears?
Answer:
a. The probabilities of appearing side dot 2 are:
1
P( 2)   0,1667  16,67%
6
b. The probabilities of appearing on the even dots side are:
3
P( Even)   0,5  50%
6
 Empirical Probability
Empirical probability or relative probability is the
probability of an event based on a number of
similar events that have occurred in the past. This
probability is calculated by the formula:

Number of occurrances of an event

Probability 
The total number of observations
 Example 2.3
A coin is tossed 100 times, this is the same as 100 coins
tossed once, resulting in 46 sides of the head (A) and 54 sides
of the tail (B).
a. Calculate the probability of the side of the head appearing
(A).
b. Calculate the probability of the tail side appearing (B).
Answer:
a. The probability of appearing to the side of the head is 46%
(46/100)

b. The probability of the tail side appearing (B) is 54%

(54/100).
 Subjective Probability
Subjective probability is the value of the
probability of a particular event occurring which is
determined by someone's opinion based on
available information. This probability
determination is done because the data available
to determine the probability is very little or no
experience. Thus, different people can give
different probability values for the possibility of the
occurrence of the same event. For example,
estimating the possibility of the APBN deficit will
be reduced by half in the next year.
 Relationships Between
Events
• Mutual exclusive
Mutually exclusive relationship states that the
appearance of an event closes the appearance
of another event at the same time. For
example, a coin is tossed once. The appearance
of side A closes the appearance of side B, and
vice versa.
Relationships Between Events
• Independent
An independent relationship is a free
relationship which states that the appearance
of one event does not cover the emergence of
another event at the same time. For example,
two coins are tossed once. The appearance of
side A on the first coin does not rule out the
appearance of side B on the second coin.
Relationships Between Events
• Conditional
Conditional relationships state that an event
can occur if another event has occurred. For
example, a person can become an employee
of a company after he passes the recruitment
selection.
Relationships Between Events
• Collectively Exhaustive
The concept of a collectively exhaustive states
that at least one of several events that might
occur when an experiment is carried out. In that
experiment, it was impossible for other events to
appear outside of some of these events. For
example, a dice which has 6 sides if thrown once
will only have one side appearing between the six
sides, and it will not be possible to appear side 7.
 Rules for Calculating Probabilities
• Mutually Exclusive
If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, the two
events cannot occur at the same time. So that what is
obtained is the probability of event A or event B,
which is formulated as follows:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

For three events that are mutually marked with A, B

and C, they are formulated by:
P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)
 Example 2.5
An automatic machine fills plastic bags with sugar weighing 1
kg per bag. The filling results show that most of the weight is
exactly, some are lighter, and some are heavier. An
examination of 1,000 bags filled last month showed:

Number of
Weight Event Probability
Bags
Lighter A 30 0,03
Exactly B 920 0,92
Heavier C 50 0,05
Total 1.000 1,00

What is the probability of a sugar bag containing lighter or

heavier than 1 kilogram?
 Example 2.5
The probability of a bag lighter or heavier than 1 kg is :

P(A or C) = P(A) + P(C) = 0,03 + 0,05 = 0,08 or 8%

Event Event Event

A B C
The complementary rules show that the sum of the
probabilities of all events that might occur must be
equal to 1 or 100 percent. The probability of the
selected event, for example event A (lighter weight),
P(A) plus the probability of another event (not
selected), P(not A), must be equal to 1. This rule is
written:
P(A) + P(not A) = 1

can be changed to
P(A) = 1 – P(not A)
 Example 2.6
Look again at Example 2.5. The probability of a lighter sugar
bag (A) is 0.03 and a heavier sugar bag (C) is 0.05. What is the
probability of a sugar bag that meets the requirements (exact
weight)?
Answer:
The probability of a sugar bag that meets the requirements
(exact weight) is:
P(B) = 1 – {P(A) + P(C)} = 1 – {0,03 + 0,05} = 0,92

and can be described in the Venn diagram as follows:

A not included C
A or C
0,03 0,05
0,92
 Rules for Calculating Probabilities
• Independent Events
Some events are independent if they can occur only in
one event, occur together, or not all occur. The
probability of the occurrence of events A and B
together is formulated:
P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)

For three independent events, A, B, and C, the

probability of occurring events A, B, and C together is
:
P(A and B and C) = P(A)P(B)P(C)
 Rules for Calculating Probabilities
The probability of several events occurring together is
called a joint probability.
Whereas the probability of the occurrence of one
event (A) or another event (B) in a variety of
independent events is formulated as follows:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

where P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B), which is the probability of

events A and B happening together.
 Example 2.7
The probability that a student at a University buys a new type
of computer is 0.25 or 25 percent. If randomly selected 2
students (M1 and M2), calculate the probability of the two
students buying a computer.

Answer:
The probability of both students will buy a computer is :

P(M1 and M2) = P(M1)P(M2) = 0,25 x 0,25 = 0,0625 or

6,25 percent
 Example 2.8
The results of a tourism survey of 200 foreign tourists,
for example, entering East Java showed that 120
people visited Banyuwangi (A) and 100 people visited
Malang (B). Based on this data it is known that :
P(A) = 120/200 = 0,6 and P(B) = 100/200 = 0,5.
Calculate the probability that foreign tourists will
come to Banyuwangi City and Malang City.
Calculate the probability that foreign tourists will
come to Banyuwangi City or Malang City.
 Example 2.8
Answer:
The probability of foreign tourists coming to Banyuwangi and
Malang is : P(A and B) = 0,6 x 0,5 = 0,3 and
The probability of foreign tourists going to Banyuwangi or to
Malang is : P(A or B) = 0,6 + 0,5 – 0,3 = 0,8
If this example is illustrated in the Venn diagram the
following figure is obtained :
 Rules for Calculating Probabilities
• Conditional Events
Two events (A and B) are conditional if the occurrence
of one event (B) must be preceded by another event
(A). The probability of two conditional events being
formulated as :

P(A and B) = P(A)P(B/A)

where, P(A) is the probability of event A (first) and

P(B/A) is the probability of event B after event A occurs.
 Example 2.9
In a dos package, there are 10 packs of fast food
noodles consisting of 6 packs of soto and 4 packs of
rawon. A packet of noodles was taken from the dos.
The probability of taking soto flavored noodles (S) is
6/10 and the probability of taking rawon flavor (R) is
4/10. Then take another packet of noodles from the
dos, without returning the first selected noodles.
What is the probability of the second selected noodle
is rawon flavor?
 Example 2.9
Answer:
The probability of the second selected noodle is the taste of
rawon depends on the first selected noodle whether it is Soto or
Rawon. The probability that the second noodle is rawon flavor
is:
4/9, if the first noodle is taken is Soto (R / S) flavor, or
3/9, if the first noodle is taken is rawon (R / R) flavor.

Probability of 4/9 or 3/9 is called conditional probability

because the value depends on what flavor noodles are taken
first.

Thus, the probability of taking rawon noodles on the first take

(R1) and the rawon flavor on the second take (R2) are:
P(R1 and R2) = P(R1)P(R2/R1) = (4/10)(3/9) = 2/15 = 0,1333 = 13,33%
 Example 2.10
A survey of loyalty was conducted on 100 managers in
several publicly listed companies (went public) during the
last January. The question asked is whether they will move if
there is an offer from another company for the same or
slightly higher position. The results of this survey are
summarized in the following table.
Number of Years as Manager
Less than 1–5 6 – 10 More than
Loyalty Total
1 year, years, years, 10 years,
B1 B2 B3 B4
Loyal, A1 5 15 10 30 60
Move, A2 13 7 5 15 40
Total 18 22 15 45 100
 Example 2.10
a. What is the probability that a randomly chosen manager is
loyal (not moved) and has worked for more than 10 years?
b. What is the probability that a selected manager is loyal or
has worked for more than 10 years?
 Example 2.10
Answer:
a. The probability that a randomly chosen manager is loyal
and has worked for more than 10 years is calculated as
follows:
The probability of a manager still working in his company
(loyal),
P(A1) = 60/100 = 0,6
The probability that managers have worked for more than 10
years will remain loyal despite offers from other companies,
P(B4/A1) = 30/60 = 0,5
Thus, the probability of a randomly selected manager
not moving to another company and having worked for more
than 10 years is :
P(A1 and B4) = P(A1)P(B4/A1) = (60/100)(30/60) = (30/100) = 0,3
 Example 2.10
b. Meanwhile, the probability of a manager chosen to be
loyal or having worked for more than 10 years is
calculated as follows :
P(A1 or B4) = P(A1) + P(B4)  P(A1 and B4)
= (60/100) + (45/100) – (30/100)
= 0,6 + 0,45 – 0,3 = 0,75
 Three Diagram
Tree diagrams are graphs used in compiling
calculations that take place in several stages.
Each part in the diagram is one level of the
problem. Each branch of the tree diagram is
weighted based on probability.
Figure Tree Diagram
 Principle of Counting
• Multiplication
If there are f ways to do one thing and g ways to do
another, then:

Total number of arrays = (f)(g)

For the three events f, g, and h, then:

Total number of arrays = (f)(g)(h)

The formula can be extended to more than three events.

 Example 2.14
A shop promotes three types of watches: manual, automatic,
and digital. Each buyer can choose three color watchband:
green, yellow and red. So, what is the number of types and
types of wristwatches?

Answer:
The number of types and types of wristbands can be
calculated as follows:

Total number of arrays = (f)(g) = (3)(3) = 9

 Principle of Counting
• Permutation
Permutation is any arrangement of r objects chosen from
a single group with n objects with respect to the order of
r objects. For r the same object but have a different
arrangement is a different permutation.

n!
n Pr 
n  r .!
where, n is the sum of all objects and r is the number of
objects selected. Notation n! is read n factorial.
 Example 2.15
There are three cars in blue (B), white (W), and yellow (Y)
which will be arranged in sequence. How many
permutations are there from the 3 cars?
Answer:
Because all three will be arranged together, n = 3 and r = 3
and the results of the permutation are:

n! 3!
3 P3   6
n  r .! 3  3.!
So there are 6 permutations, which means there are 6
possible choices for putting together the three cars, i.e. :
BWY BYW WBY WYB YBW YWB
 Principle of Counting
• Combination
• A combination is any arrangement of r objects
chosen from n objects without regard to the
arrangement of r objects.

n!
n Cr
r!(n  r )!
 Example 2.17
The president director of a company has chosen 5
employees (A, B, C, D, and E) to form a market research
team. This team consists of 3 employees with the same
duties and responsibilities in that team. How many
combinations of team members might be formed?
Answer:
Possible combinations of team members are:
n! 5!
n Cr   10
r!(n  r )! 3!(5  3)!

those are: ABC; ABD; ABE; ACD; ACE; ADE; BCD; BCE; BDE;
and CDE.
If from n objects can be separated into m
groups and each group consists of r1, r2, …… rm,
then the combination formula becomes :

n!
n Cr1 , r2 ,...,rm  
r1!r2!  rm!
 Example 2.18
There are 9 new employees in an agency. They will be placed
in 3 different rooms with the capacity of room A for 4
employees, room B for 3 employees, and room C for 2
employees. Based on this data, how many combinations are
there to place the employee?

Answer:
Possible combinations for placing employees are:

9!
9 C( 4,3, 2)   1.260
4! 3! 2!