Binomial Distribution A binomial experiment possesses the following characteristics: • The experiment consists of n repeated trials • Each trial results in one of two mutually exclusive outcomes that may be classified as either a “success” or a “failure” • The probability of a success in one trial, denoted by p, remains constant from trial to trial • The repeated trials are independent Example:
• Tossing a coin 100 times
• Tossing a die 5 times Binomial - Examples In each situation below, is it reasonable to use a binomial distribution for the random variable X? Give reasons for your answer in each case.
The pool of potential jurors for a murder case contains 100
persons chosen at random from the adult residents of a large city. Each person in the pool is asked whether he or she opposes the death penalty; X is the number who say “Yes.” Yes ▪ Only two choices, yes or no ▪ It is reasonable to believe that all responses are independent since they are randomly chosen from the population and they are interviewed separately from each other ▪ Is the probability of responding “yes” the same for every respondent?
▪ All have approximately the same probability of saying “yes” since n = 100 is quite small if taken from a very large population. Let us say that 50% of the population of 5000 are in favour. The prob. that the first person drawn will favour is 2500/5000=0.5. The second will favour is 2499/4999=0.4998998… The100th will favour is 2401/4901=0.489901. Thus, the probability of a success remains almost the same from trial to trial. In each situation below, is it reasonable to use a binomial distribution for the random variable X? Give reasons for your answer in each case.
Joe buys a ticket in LOTTO every week; X is the
number of times in a year that he wins a prize. (n = 52) Yes ❖Only two choices, win or lose ❖All responses are independent ❖In LOTTO, Joe’s chance of winning the lottery is the same every week The binomial distribution
Example 1. Find the probability of obtaining
exactly four 2's if an ordinary die is tossed 5 times. Example 2. A survey showed that 20% preferred a white cellphone over any other color. What is the probability that 4 of the next 6 customers will buy white cellphones? The binomial distribution
Example 3. If 15% of the bolts produced by a
machine are defective, determine the probability that out of 4 bolts chosen at random, a.) exactly 3 are defective. b.) 2 or 3 are defective. c.) 1 is non-defective. The binomial distribution
The mean, variance, and standard deviation of a
binomially distributed random variable are given by: = np = np(1 − p) 2
= np(1 − p) The mean of a random variable X is also called the expected value of the random variable X. The binomial distribution
Example 4. The probability that a patient recovers
from a rare blood disease is 0.4. If 15 people are known to have contracted this disease, find the expected number of patients to recover and standard deviation on the number of recoveries in every 15 patients.
