FINANCIAL

MODELLING
REPORT
A comprehensive DCF and Comparable Comps Valuation
 Table of
CONTENTS
01 Historical Financial Statements

02 Ratio Analysis

03 Forecasting

04 WACC

05 Relative Valuation

06 Discounted Cash Flow

07 Football Field Analysis

08 DuPont Analysis
 Historical Financial Statement - ASIAN PAINTS LTD
Years Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 LTM

# Income Statement
Sales ₹ 13,615.3 ₹ 14,271.5 ₹ 15,062.0 ₹ 16,824.6 ₹ 19,240.1 ₹ 20,211.3 ₹ 21,712.8 ₹ 29,101.3 ₹ 34,488.6 ₹ 35,494.7 ₹ 35,282.2
Sales Growth - 4.82% 5.54% 11.70% 14.36% 5.05% 7.43% 34.03% 18.51% 2.92% -0.60%

COGS ₹ 9,298.8 ₹ 9,413.8 ₹ 9,732.7 ₹ 11,194.2 ₹ 12,905.8 ₹ 13,158.0 ₹ 14,035.1 ₹ 20,590.6 ₹ 23,766.7 ₹ 23,010.0 ₹ 28,124.7
COGS % Sales 68.30% 65.96% 64.62% 66.53% 67.08% 65.10% 64.64% 70.75% 68.91% 64.83% 79.71%

Gross Profit ₹ 4,316.49 ₹ 4,857.65 ₹ 5,329.33 ₹ 5,630.38 ₹ 6,334.32 ₹ 7,053.23 ₹ 7,677.72 ₹ 8,510.71 ₹ 10,721.89 ₹ 12,484.74 ₹ 7,157.46
Gross Margins 31.70% 34.04% 35.38% 33.47% 32.92% 34.90% 35.36% 29.25% 31.09% 35.17% 20.29%

Selling & General Expenses ₹ 2,073.60 ₹ 2,132.61 ₹ 2,335.57 ₹ 2,426.37 ₹ 2,569.38 ₹ 2,896.41 ₹ 2,822.12 ₹ 3,707.10 ₹ 4,462.05 ₹ 4,899.76 -
S&G Exp % sales 15.23% 14.94% 15.51% 14.42% 13.35% 14.33% 13.00% 12.74% 12.94% 13.80% 0.00%

EBITDA ₹ 2,242.89 ₹ 2,725.04 ₹ 2,993.76 ₹ 3,204.01 ₹ 3,764.94 ₹ 4,156.82 ₹ 4,855.60 ₹ 4,803.61 ₹ 6,259.84 ₹ 7,584.98 ₹ 7,853.81
EBITDA Margins 16.47% 19.09% 19.88% 19.04% 19.57% 20.57% 22.36% 16.51% 18.15% 21.37% 22.26%

Interest ₹ 42.24 ₹ 49.00 ₹ 37.33 ₹ 41.47 ₹ 110.47 ₹ 102.33 ₹ 91.63 ₹ 95.41 ₹ 144.45 ₹ 205.17 ₹ 214.80
Interest % Sales 0.31% 0.34% 0.25% 0.25% 0.57% 0.51% 0.42% 0.33% 0.42% 0.58% 0.61%

Depreciation ₹ 265.92 ₹ 275.58 ₹ 334.79 ₹ 360.47 ₹ 622.14 ₹ 780.50 ₹ 791.27 ₹ 816.36 ₹ 858.02 ₹ 853.00 ₹ 882.38
Depreciation % Sales 1.95% 1.93% 2.22% 2.14% 3.23% 3.86% 3.64% 2.81% 2.49% 2.40% 2.50%

Earnings Before Tax ₹ 1,934.73 ₹ 2,400.46 ₹ 2,621.64 ₹ 2,802.07 ₹ 3,032.33 ₹ 3,273.99 ₹ 3,972.70 ₹ 3,891.84 ₹ 5,257.37 ₹ 6,526.81 ₹ 6,756.63
EBT % sales 14.21% 16.82% 17.41% 16.65% 15.76% 16.20% 18.30% 13.37% 15.24% 18.39% 19.15%

Tax ₹ 649.54 ₹ 844.49 ₹ 943.29 ₹ 1,040.96 ₹ 1,098.06 ₹ 854.85 ₹ 1,097.60 ₹ 1,102.91 ₹ 1,493.50 ₹ 1,790.08 ₹ 1,676.79
Effective Tax Rate 33.57% 35.18% 35.98% 37.15% 36.21% 26.11% 27.63% 28.34% 28.41% 27.43% 24.82%

Net Profit ₹ 1,285.19 ₹ 1,555.97 ₹ 1,678.35 ₹ 1,761.11 ₹ 1,934.27 ₹ 2,419.14 ₹ 2,875.10 ₹ 2,788.93 ₹ 3,763.87 ₹ 4,736.73 ₹ 5,079.84
Net margins 9.44% 10.90% 11.14% 10.47% 10.05% 11.97% 13.24% 9.58% 10.91% 13.34% 14.40%

No of Equity Shares 95.92 95.92 95.92 95.92 95.92 95.92 95.92 95.92 95.92 95.92 95.92

Earnings per Share ₹ 13.40 ₹ 16.22 ₹ 17.50 ₹ 18.36 ₹ 20.17 ₹ 25.22 ₹ 29.97 ₹ 29.08 ₹ 39.24 ₹ 49.38 ₹ 52.96
EPS Growth % 21.07% 7.87% 4.93% 9.83% 25.07% 18.85% -3.00% 34.96% 25.85% 7.24%

Dividend per Share ₹ 6.1 ₹ 7.5 ₹ 10.3 ₹ 8.7 ₹ 10.5 ₹ 12.0 ₹ 17.8 ₹ 19.2 ₹ 25.7 ₹ 33.3 -
Dividend payout ratio 45.53% 46.23% 58.87% 47.38% 52.07% 47.58% 59.55% 65.86% 65.37% 67.43% 0.00%

Retained Earnings 54.47% 53.77% 41.13% 52.62% 47.93% 52.42% 40.45% 34.14% 34.63% 32.57% 100.00%
# Balance Sheet
Equity Share Capital ₹ 95.9 ₹ 95.9 ₹ 95.9 ₹ 95.9 ₹ 95.9 ₹ 95.9 ₹ 95.9 ₹ 95.9 ₹ 95.9 ₹ 95.9
Reserves ₹ 4,646.4 ₹ 6,428.9 ₹ 7,508.0 ₹ 8,314.3 ₹ 9,374.6 ₹ 10,034.2 ₹ 12,710.4 ₹ 13,715.6 ₹ 15,896.3 ₹ 18,632.4
Borrowings ₹ 418.2 ₹ 323.3 ₹ 560.3 ₹ 533.4 ₹ 1,319.6 ₹ 1,118.5 ₹ 1,093.1 ₹ 1,586.9 ₹ 1,932.6 ₹ 2,474.4
Other Liabilities ₹ 3,754.0 ₹ 3,710.9 ₹ 4,241.0 ₹ 4,819.8 ₹ 5,458.7 ₹ 4,889.3 ₹ 6,455.9 ₹ 7,560.0 ₹ 7,854.5 ₹ 8,698.1
Total Liabilties ₹ 8,914.5 ₹ 10,559.0 ₹ 12,405.2 ₹ 13,763.5 ₹ 16,248.8 ₹ 16,138.0 ₹ 20,355.3 ₹ 22,958.4 ₹ 25,779.3 ₹ 29,900.8

Fixed Assets Net Block ₹ 2,660.0 ₹ 3,416.4 ₹ 3,303.7 ₹ 3,732.2 ₹ 6,496.6 ₹ 6,272.3 ₹ 5,858.5 ₹ 5,519.1 ₹ 5,770.5 ₹ 7,146.6
Capital Work in Progress ₹ 196.0 ₹ 106.6 ₹ 257.5 ₹ 1,405.1 ₹ 209.7 ₹ 140.2 ₹ 183.0 ₹ 426.4 ₹ 1,019.6 ₹ 2,698.4
Investments ₹ 1,587.8 ₹ 2,712.1 ₹ 2,652.0 ₹ 2,140.7 ₹ 2,568.6 ₹ 2,018.9 ₹ 4,736.8 ₹ 3,247.5 ₹ 4,261.7 ₹ 4,587.9
Other Assets ₹ 825.7 ₹ 714.7 ₹ 1,317.2 ₹ 1,691.8 ₹ 1,472.0 ₹ 1,738.7 ₹ 2,565.5 ₹ 2,876.7 ₹ 3,036.2 ₹ 3,571.4
Total Non-Current Assets ₹ 5,269.5 ₹ 6,949.8 ₹ 7,530.4 ₹ 8,969.9 ₹ 10,746.8 ₹ 10,170.1 ₹ 13,343.8 ₹ 12,069.7 ₹ 14,087.9 ₹ 18,004.3

Receivables ₹ 1,182.1 ₹ 1,186.8 ₹ 1,446.6 ₹ 1,730.6 ₹ 1,907.3 ₹ 1,795.2 ₹ 2,602.2 ₹ 3,871.4 ₹ 4,636.9 ₹ 4,889.1
Inventory ₹ 2,258.5 ₹ 1,998.2 ₹ 2,626.9 ₹ 2,658.3 ₹ 3,149.9 ₹ 3,389.8 ₹ 3,798.6 ₹ 6,153.0 ₹ 6,210.6 ₹ 5,923.4
Cash & Bank ₹ 204.4 ₹ 424.2 ₹ 801.2 ₹ 404.7 ₹ 444.9 ₹ 782.8 ₹ 610.8 ₹ 864.3 ₹ 843.8 ₹ 1,084.0
Total Current Assets ₹ 3,645.0 ₹ 3,609.3 ₹ 4,874.8 ₹ 4,793.6 ₹ 5,502.1 ₹ 5,967.9 ₹ 7,011.5 ₹ 10,888.8 ₹ 11,691.4 ₹ 11,896.5

Total Assets ₹ 8,914.5 ₹ 10,559.0 ₹ 12,405.2 ₹ 13,763.5 ₹ 16,248.8 ₹ 16,138.0 ₹ 20,355.3 ₹ 22,958.4 ₹ 25,779.3 ₹ 29,900.8

Check TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE

# Cash Flow Statement

Cash from Operating Activities ₹ 1,188.0 ₹ 2,243.0 ₹ 1,527.0 ₹ 2,113.0 ₹ 2,470.0 ₹ 3,038.0 ₹ 3,683.0 ₹ 986.0 ₹ 4,193.0 ₹ 6,104.0

Cash from Investing Activities (₹ 465.0) (₹ 866.0) (₹ 681.0) (₹ 1,556.0) (₹ 918.0) (₹ 518.0) (₹ 541.0) (₹ 317.0) (₹ 1,282.0) (₹ 2,548.0)

Cash from Financing Activities (₹ 576.0) (₹ 849.0) (₹ 756.0) (₹ 1,379.0) (₹ 1,117.0) (₹ 2,871.0) (₹ 650.0) (₹ 1,808.0) (₹ 2,140.0) (₹ 2,982.0)

Net Cash Flow ₹ 147.0 ₹ 528.0 ₹ 90.0 (₹ 822.0) ₹ 435.0 (₹ 351.0) ₹ 2,492.0 (₹ 1,139.0) ₹ 771.0 ₹ 574.0
 Common Size Income Statement -ASIAN PAINTS LTD

Particulars Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24

Sales 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Raw Material Cost 50.49% 46.03% 49.48% 48.31% 51.84% 49.39% 48.02% 58.84% 55.05% 49.05%
Change in Inventory 1.09% -1.40% 3.51% -0.84% 1.52% 1.18% 0.43% 4.55% 0.90% -1.02%
Power and Fuel 0.96% 0.80% 0.70% 0.66% 0.62% 0.48% 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% 0.38%
Other Mfr. Exp 11.05% 10.76% 11.04% 10.05% 9.68% 9.63% 9.53% 9.90% 8.46% 7.80%
Employee Cost 6.88% 6.97% 6.90% 6.67% 6.46% 6.78% 7.13% 6.17% 5.90% 6.58%
Selling and admin 24.62% 27.41% 28.97% 13.40% 12.30% 11.44% 10.34% 10.11% 10.15% 10.74%
Other Expenses -9.39% -12.47% -13.47% 1.02% 1.05% 2.89% 2.65% 2.63% 2.79% 3.06%
Other Income 1.04% 1.50% 2.24% 2.00% 1.42% 1.76% 1.53% 1.02% 1.25% 2.31%
Depreciation 1.95% 1.93% 2.22% 2.14% 3.23% 3.86% 3.64% 2.81% 2.49% 2.40%
Interest 0.31% 0.34% 0.25% 0.25% 0.57% 0.51% 0.42% 0.33% 0.42% 0.58%
Profit before tax 15.25% 18.32% 19.65% 18.65% 17.18% 17.96% 19.82% 14.39% 16.49% 20.70%
Tax 4.77% 5.92% 6.26% 6.19% 5.71% 4.23% 5.06% 3.79% 4.33% 5.04%
Net profit 10.25% 12.23% 12.88% 12.12% 11.21% 13.38% 14.46% 10.41% 11.91% 15.38%
Dividend Amount 4.30% 5.04% 6.56% 4.96% 5.23% 5.70% 7.89% 6.31% 7.13% 9.00%
EBITDA 17.28% 20.42% 21.61% 20.69% 20.72% 21.98% 23.58% 17.34% 19.14% 23.41%

Common Size Balance Sheet -ASIAN PAINTS LTD

Particulars Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24

Total Liabilities 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Equity Share Capital 1.08% 0.91% 0.77% 0.70% 0.59% 0.59% 0.47% 0.42% 0.37% 0.32%
Reserves 52.12% 60.89% 60.52% 60.41% 57.69% 62.18% 62.44% 59.74% 61.66% 62.31%
Borrowings 4.69% 3.06% 4.52% 3.88% 8.12% 6.93% 5.37% 6.91% 7.50% 8.28%
Other Liabilities 42.11% 35.14% 34.19% 35.02% 33.59% 30.30% 31.72% 32.93% 30.47% 29.09%

Total Assets 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Net Block 29.84% 32.35% 26.63% 27.12% 39.98% 38.87% 28.78% 24.04% 22.38% 23.90%
Capital Work in Progress 2.20% 1.01% 2.08% 10.21% 1.29% 0.87% 0.90% 1.86% 3.96% 9.02%
Investments 17.81% 25.69% 21.38% 15.55% 15.81% 12.51% 23.27% 14.15% 16.53% 15.34%
Other Assets 9.26% 6.77% 10.62% 12.29% 9.06% 10.77% 12.60% 12.53% 11.78% 11.94%
Receivables 13.26% 11.24% 11.66% 12.57% 11.74% 11.12% 12.78% 16.86% 17.99% 16.35%
Inventory 25.34% 18.92% 21.18% 19.31% 19.39% 21.01% 18.66% 26.80% 24.09% 19.81%
Cash & Bank 2.29% 4.02% 6.46% 2.94% 2.74% 4.85% 3.00% 3.76% 3.27% 3.63%
 Ratio Analysis of - ASIAN PAINTS LTD
Years Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Trend Mean Median

SalesGrowth 4.82% 5.54% 11.70% 14.36% 5.05% 7.43% 34.03% 18.51% 2.92% 11.59% 7.43%
EBITDA Growth 21.50% 9.86% 7.02% 17.51% 10.41% 16.81% -1.07% 30.32% 21.17% 14.84% 16.81%
EBIT Growth 24.07% 9.21% 6.88% 8.22% 7.97% 21.34% -2.04% 35.09% 24.15% 14.99% 9.21%
Net Profit Growth 21.07% 7.87% 4.93% 9.83% 25.07% 18.85% -3.00% 34.96% 25.85% 16.16% 18.85%
Dividend Growth 22.95% 37.33% -15.53% 20.69% 14.29% 48.75% 7.28% 33.94% 29.82% 22.17% 22.95%

Gross Margin 31.70% 34.04% 35.38% 33.47% 32.92% 34.90% 35.36% 29.25% 31.09% 35.17% 33.33% 33.75%
EBITDA Margin 16.47% 19.09% 19.88% 19.04% 19.57% 20.57% 22.36% 16.51% 18.15% 21.37% 19.30% 19.33%
EBIT Margin 14.52% 17.16% 17.65% 16.90% 16.33% 16.71% 18.72% 13.70% 15.66% 18.97% 16.63% 16.80%
EBT Margin 14.21% 16.82% 17.41% 16.65% 15.76% 16.20% 18.30% 13.37% 15.24% 18.39% 16.24% 16.43%
Net Profit Margin 9.44% 10.90% 11.14% 10.47% 10.05% 11.97% 13.24% 9.58% 10.91% 13.34% 11.11% 10.91%

SalesExpenses%Sales 15.23% 14.94% 15.51% 14.42% 13.35% 14.33% 13.00% 12.74% 12.94% 13.80% 14.03% 14.07%
Depreciation%Sales 1.95% 1.93% 2.22% 2.14% 3.23% 3.86% 3.64% 2.81% 2.49% 2.40% 2.67% 2.45%
OperatingIncome%Sales 14.52% 17.16% 17.65% 16.90% 16.33% 16.71% 18.72% 13.70% 15.66% 18.97% 16.63% 16.80%

Return on Capital Employed 38.31% 35.77% 32.57% 31.79% 29.13% 30.02% 29.24% 25.89% 30.14% 31.75% 31.46% 30.94%
Retained Earnings% 54.47% 53.77% 41.13% 52.62% 47.93% 52.42% 40.45% 34.14% 34.63% 32.57% 44.41% 44.53%
Return on Equity% 27.10% 23.85% 22.07% 20.94% 20.42% 23.88% 22.45% 20.19% 23.54% 25.29% 22.97% 22.99%
Self Sustained Growth Rate 14.76% 12.82% 9.08% 11.02% 9.79% 12.52% 9.08% 6.89% 8.15% 8.24% 10.23% 9.44%
Interest Coverage Ratio 2236.6x 2719.4x 2984.8x 3195.3x 3759.3x 4149.2x 4847.0x 4795.1x 6253.9x 7580.8x 4252.1x 3954.3x

Debtor Turnover Ratio 11.5x 12.0x 10.4x 9.7x 10.1x 11.3x 8.3x 7.5x 7.4x 7.3x 9.6x 9.9x
Creditor Turnover Ratio 3.6x 3.8x 3.6x 3.5x 3.5x 4.1x 3.4x 3.8x 4.4x 4.1x 3.8x 3.7x
Inventory Turnover 6.0x 7.1x 5.7x 6.3x 6.1x 6.0x 5.7x 4.7x 5.6x 6.0x 5.9x 6.0x
Fixed Asset Turnover 5.1x 4.2x 4.6x 4.5x 3.0x 3.2x 3.7x 5.3x 6.0x 5.0x 4.4x 4.5x
Capital Turnover Ratio 2.9x 2.2x 2.0x 2.0x 2.0x 2.0x 1.7x 2.1x 2.2x 1.9x 2.1x 2.0x

Debtor Days 32 30 35 38 36 32 44 49 49 50 39 37
Payable Days 101 95 103 105 104 88 109 95 83 89 97 98
Inventory Days 61 51 64 58 60 61 64 77 66 61 62 61
Cash Conversion Cycle (in days) 92 81 99 95 96 94 108 126 115 111 102 97

CFO/Sales 8.73% 15.72% 10.14% 12.56% 12.84% 15.03% 16.96% 3.39% 12.16% 17.20% 12.47% 12.70%
CFO/Total Assets 13.33% 21.24% 12.31% 15.35% 15.20% 18.83% 18.09% 4.29% 16.26% 20.41% 15.53% 15.81%
CFO/Total Debt 284.1% 693.8% 272.5% 396.1% 187.2% 271.6% 336.9% 62.1% 217.0% 246.7% 296.8% 272.1%
 ASIAN PAINTS LTD - Sales Forecasting ASIAN PAINTS LTD - EBITDA Forecasting ASIAN PAINTS LTD - Earning Per Share Forecasting
Year Weight Year Sales Sales growth Year Weight Year EBITDA EBITDA Growth Year Weight Year EPS EPS Growth
1 2015A 13615.26 1 2015A 2352.85 1 2015A 13.40
2 2016A 14271.49 4.82% 2 2016A 2914.23 23.86% 2 2016A 16.22 21.07%
3 2017A 15061.99 5.54% 3 2017A 3254.84 11.69% 3 2017A 17.50 7.87%
4 2018A 16824.55 11.70% 4 2018A 3481.83 6.97% 4 2018A 18.36 4.93%
5 2019A 19240.13 14.36% 5 2019A 3986.59 14.50% 5 2019A 20.17 9.83%
6 2020A 20211.25 5.05% 6 2020A 4442.85 11.44% 6 2020A 25.22 25.07%
7 2021A 21712.79 7.43% 7 2021A 5119.79 15.24% 7 2021A 29.97 18.85%
8 2022A 29101.28 34.03% 8 2022A 5045.25 -1.46% 8 2022A 29.08 -3.00%
9 2023A 34488.59 18.51% 9 2023A 6602.42 30.86% 9 2023A 39.24 34.96%
10 2024A 35494.73 2.92% 10 2024A 8308.48 25.84% 10 2024A 49.38 25.85%
11 2025E 36144.45 1.83% 11 2025E 7675.59 -7.62% 11 2025F 45.28 -8.31%
12 2026E 38715.76 7.11% 12 2026E 8243.71 7.40% 12 2026F 48.81 7.80%
13 2027E 41287.08 6.64% 13 2027E 8811.83 6.89% 13 2027F 52.34 7.24%
14 2028E 43858.40 6.23% 14 2028E 9379.95 6.45% 14 2028F 55.87 6.75%
15 2029E 46429.71 5.86% 15 2029E 9948.08 6.06% 15 2029F 59.41 6.32%
 Weighted Average Cost of Capital
All figures are in INR unless stated otherwise.

Peer Comps
Debt/ Debt/ Levered Unlevered
1
Name Country Total Debt Total Equity Tax Rate Equity Capital Beta2 Beta3

Asian Paints India 2474.4 291328.2 30.00% 0.85% 0.84% 0.80 0.80
Berger Paints India 753.3 66631.3 30.00% 1.13% 1.12% 0.93 0.92
Kansai Nerolac India 276.4 23342.6 30.00% 1.18% 1.17% 0.57 0.57
Akzo Nobel India 60.4 18759.2 30.00% 0.32% 0.32% 0.04 0.04
Indigo Paints India 16.8 7053.8 30.00% 0.24% 0.24% 0.56 0.56

Average 30.00% 0.74% 0.74% 0.58 0.58

Median 30.00% 0.85% 0.84% 0.57 0.57

Cost of Debt Cost of Equity

Pre tax Cost of Debt 8.28% Risk Free Rate 6.90%

Tax Rate 30.00% Equity Risk Premium 9.87%
After Tax Cost of debt 5.80% Levered Beta4 0.73
Cost of Equity 14.14%

Capital Strucuture Levered Beta

Current Target
Total Debt 2474.4 0.84% 0.74% Comps Median unlevered Beta 0.57
Market Capitalization 291328.2 99.16% 99.26% Target Debt/Equity 0.74%
Total Capitalization 293802.6 100.00% 100.00% Tax Rate 30.00%
Levered Beta 0.73
Debt/Equity 0.85% 0.74%
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
1. Tax Rate considered as Marginal Tax Rate for the country
2. Levered Beta is based on 5 year monthly data Cost of Equity 14.14%
3. Unlevered Beta = Levered Beta/(1+(1-Tax Rate) x Debt/Equity) Equity weight 99.26%
4. Levered Beta = Unlevered Beta/(1+(1-Tax Rate) x Debt/Equity)
Cost of Debt 5.80%
Debt Weight 0.74%

WACC 14.08%
Regression Beta- 2 years Weekly

Asian Paints weekly Returns Nifty Returns Beta Drifting

Beta 1 0.74
Date Closing Price Return Closing Price Return Levered Raw Beta 0.74 Beta 2 0.74
16-10-2022 3,092.40 17,576.30 Raw Beta weight 75.00%
23-10-2022 3,053.40 -1.3% 17,786.80 1.2% Beta 3 0.74
30-10-2022 3,181.35 4.2% 18,117.15 1.9% Market Beta 1.00
06-11-2022 3,055.40 -4.0% 18,349.70 1.3% Market Beta Weight 25.00%
13-11-2022 3,095.50 1.3% 18,307.65 -0.2%
20-11-2022 3,108.15 0.4% 18,512.75 1.1% Adjusted Beta 0.80
27-11-2022 3,143.45 1.1% 18,696.10 1.0%
04-12-2022 3,226.95 2.7% 18,496.60 -1.1% SUMMARY OUTPUT
11-12-2022 3,055.90 -5.3% 18,269.00 -1.2%
18-12-2022 3,057.90 0.1% 17,806.80 -2.5% Regression Statistics
25-12-2022 3,087.90 1.0% 18,105.30 1.7% Multiple R 0.419539805
01-01-2023 2,978.40 -3.5% 17,859.45 -1.4% R Square 0.176013648
08-01-2023 2,909.15 -2.3% 17,956.60 0.5% Adjusted R Square 0.167855367
15-01-2023 2,787.80 -4.2% 18,027.65 0.4% Standard Error 0.023437123
22-01-2023 2,722.65 -2.3% 17,604.35 -2.3% Observations 103
29-01-2023 2,760.40 1.4% 17,854.05 1.4%
05-02-2023 2,804.60 1.6% 17,856.50 0.0% ANOVA
12-02-2023 2,833.60 1.0% 17,944.20 0.5% df SS MS F Significance F
19-02-2023 2,738.50 -3.4% 17,465.80 -2.7% Regression 1 0.011851 0.011851 21.57485 1.03E-05
26-02-2023 2,828.85 3.3% 17,594.35 0.7% Residual 101 0.055479 0.000549
05-03-2023 2,830.20 0.0% 17,412.90 -1.0% Total 102 0.06733
12-03-2023 2,862.65 1.1% 17,100.05 -1.8%
19-03-2023 2,798.50 -2.2% 16,945.05 -0.9% Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
26-03-2023 2,761.65 -1.3% 17,359.75 2.4% Intercept -0.002438852 0.002376 -1.0265 0.307108 -0.00715 0.002274 -0.00715 0.002274
02-04-2023 2,809.85 1.7% 17,599.15 1.4% X Variable 1 0.737195351 0.158712 4.644873 1.03E-05 0.422354 1.052037 0.422354 1.052037
09-04-2023 2,809.75 0.0% 17,828.00 1.3%
16-04-2023 2,882.10 2.6% 17,624.05 -1.1%
23-04-2023 2,902.35 0.7% 18,065.00 2.5%
30-04-2023 3,012.95 3.8% 18,069.00 0.0%
07-05-2023 3,131.10 3.9% 18,314.80 1.4%
14-05-2023 3,084.45 -1.5% 18,203.40 -0.6%
21-05-2023 3,128.40 1.4% 18,499.35 1.6%
28-05-2023 3,237.25 3.5% 18,534.10 0.2%
04-06-2023 3,180.55 -1.8% 18,563.40 0.2%
11-06-2023 3,316.85 4.3% 18,826.00 1.4%
18-06-2023 3,297.70 -0.6% 18,665.50 -0.9%
25-06-2023 3,362.05 2.0% 19,189.05 2.8%
02-07-2023 3,343.70 -0.5% 19,331.80 0.7%
09-07-2023 3,429.75 2.6% 19,564.50 1.2%
16-07-2023 3,517.70 2.6% 19,745.00 0.9%
23-07-2023 3,390.70 -3.6% 19,646.05 -0.5%
30-07-2023 3,339.65 -1.5% 19,517.00 -0.7%
06-08-2023 3,185.35 -4.6% 19,428.30 -0.5%
13-08-2023 3,163.55 -0.7% 19,310.15 -0.6%
20-08-2023 3,259.30 3.0% 19,265.80 -0.2%
27-08-2023 3,259.55 0.0% 19,435.30 0.9%
03-09-2023 3,238.05 -0.7% 19,819.95 2.0%
10-09-2023 3,196.65 -1.3% 20,192.35 1.9%
17-09-2023 3,274.85 2.4% 19,674.25 -2.6%
24-09-2023 3,161.05 -3.5% 19,638.30 -0.2%
01-10-2023 3,195.75 1.1% 19,653.50 0.1%
08-10-2023 3,148.80 -1.5% 19,751.05 0.5%
15-10-2023 3,105.85 -1.4% 19,542.65 -1.1%
22-10-2023 2,955.15 -4.9% 19,047.25 -2.5%
29-10-2023 2,977.85 0.8% 19,230.60 1.0%
05-11-2023 3,076.45 3.3% 19,425.35 1.0%
12-11-2023 3,168.90 3.0% 19,731.80 1.6%
19-11-2023 3,136.15 -1.0% 19,794.70 0.3%
26-11-2023 3,173.40 1.2% 20,267.90 2.4%
03-12-2023 3,232.00 1.8% 20,969.40 3.5%
10-12-2023 3,313.90 2.5% 21,456.65 2.3%
17-12-2023 3,341.30 0.8% 21,349.40 -0.5%
24-12-2023 3,402.40 1.8% 21,731.40 1.8%
31-12-2023 3,355.55 -1.4% 21,710.80 -0.1%
07-01-2024 3,277.80 -2.3% 21,894.55 0.8%
14-01-2024 3,165.85 -3.4% 21,622.40 -1.2%
21-01-2024 2,949.20 -6.8% 21,352.60 -1.2%
28-01-2024 2,936.30 -0.4% 21,853.80 2.3%
04-02-2024 2,951.65 0.5% 21,782.50 -0.3%
11-02-2024 3,007.90 1.9% 22,040.70 1.2%
18-02-2024 2,985.95 -0.7% 22,212.70 0.8%
25-02-2024 2,831.75 -5.2% 22,338.75 0.6%
03-03-2024 2,870.55 1.4% 22,493.55 0.7%
10-03-2024 2,867.55 -0.1% 22,023.35 -2.1%
17-03-2024 2,841.50 -0.9% 22,096.75 0.3%
24-03-2024 2,846.75 0.2% 22,326.90 1.0%
31-03-2024 2,883.45 1.3% 22,513.70 0.8%
07-04-2024 2,854.50 -1.0% 22,519.40 0.0%
14-04-2024 2,808.55 -1.6% 22,147.00 -1.7%
21-04-2024 2,844.15 1.3% 22,419.95 1.2%
28-04-2024 2,929.75 3.0% 22,475.85 0.2%
05-05-2024 2,771.25 -5.4% 22,055.20 -1.9%
12-05-2024 2,809.90 1.4% 22,466.10 1.9%
19-05-2024 2,874.75 2.3% 22,957.10 2.2%
26-05-2024 2,881.20 0.2% 22,530.70 -1.9%
02-06-2024 2,927.70 1.6% 23,290.15 3.4%
09-06-2024 2,921.60 -0.2% 23,465.60 0.8%
16-06-2024 2,890.85 -1.1% 23,501.10 0.2%
23-06-2024 2,917.05 0.9% 24,010.60 2.2%
30-06-2024 2,935.90 0.6% 24,323.85 1.3%
07-07-2024 2,999.15 2.2% 24,502.15 0.7%
14-07-2024 2,946.05 -1.8% 24,530.90 0.1%
21-07-2024 2,950.15 0.1% 24,834.85 1.2%
28-07-2024 3,106.70 5.3% 24,717.70 -0.5%
04-08-2024 3,040.60 -2.1% 24,367.50 -1.4%
11-08-2024 3,048.15 0.2% 24,541.15 0.7%
18-08-2024 3,154.65 3.5% 24,823.15 1.1%
25-08-2024 3,126.80 -0.9% 25,235.90 1.7%
01-09-2024 3,273.70 4.7% 24,852.15 -1.5%
08-09-2024 3,358.05 2.6% 25,356.50 2.0%
15-09-2024 3,306.95 -1.5% 25,790.95 1.7%
22-09-2024 3,310.75 0.1% 26,178.95 1.5%
29-09-2024 3,072.50 -7.2% 25,014.60 -4.4%
06-10-2024 3,037.20 -1.1% 24,964.25 -0.2%
Return On Markets

Year Annual
2000 -14.65%
2001 -16.18% Average Return 15.61%
2002 3.25% Dividend Yield 1.16%
2003 71.90% Total Market Returns 16.77%
2004 10.68%
2005 36.34%
2006 39.83%
2007 54.77%
2008 -51.79%
2009 75.76%
2010 17.95%
2011 -24.62%
2012 27.70%
2013 6.76%
2014 31.39%
2015 -4.06%
2016 3.01%
2017 28.65%
2018 3.15%
2019 12.02%
2020 14.90%
2021 24.12%
2022 4.32%
2023 19.42%
 Intrinsic Growth
Calculation of ROIC Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24

Current Assets
Inventories 3,390 3,799 6,153 6,211 5,923
Trade receivables 1,795 2,602 3,871 4,637 4,889
Cash Equivalents 783 611 864 844 1,084
Short term loans 12 11 8 12 17
Other asset items 1,727 2,555 2,869 3,024 3,555
Total Current Assets 7,707 9,578 13,766 14,727 15,468

Current Liabilities
Trade Payables 2,137 3,379 4,164 3,635 3,831
Advance from Customers 29 41 76 108 154
Other liability items 2,320 2,613 2,932 3,657 4,017
Total Current Liabilities 4,486 6,033 7,172 7,400 8,002

Net Working Capital 3,221 3,545 6,594 7,327 7,466

Non Current Assets

Land 640 644 644 804 1,126
Building 2,257 2,249 2,325 2,883 3,390
Plant Machinery 4,208 4,340 4,531 4,825 5,422
Equipments 241 243 253 270 298
Furniture n fittings 94 99 113 146 175
Vehicles 43 38 32 36 40
Intangible Assets 505 476 345 422 850
Other fixed assets 293 302 294 289 321
Gross Block 8,281 8,391 8,537 9,675 11,622
Accumulated Depreciation (2,010) (2,533) (3,019) (3,814) (4,381)
Net Non-Current Assets 6,271 5,858 5,518 5,861 7,241

Invested Capital 9,492 9,403 12,112 13,188 14,707

EBIT 3376.32 4064.33 3987.25 5401.82 6731.98

ROIC 35.6% 43.2% 32.9% 41.0% 45.8%

Calculation of Reinvestment rate Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24

Net Capex 441 310 591 1,472 2,501

Change in working Capital 324 3,049 734 139

EBIT 3,376 4,064 3,987 5,402 6,732

Marginal Tax Rate 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00%
EBIT(1-T) 2,532 3,048 2,990 4,051 5,049

Reinvestment 634 3,640 2,206 2,640

Reinvestment Rate 20.79% 121.73% 54.44% 52.29%

4 year Average 62.31%

4 year Median 53.37%

Calculation of Growth Rate Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24

Reinvestment Rate 20.79% 121.73% 54.44% 52.29%

ROIC 43.2% 32.9% 41.0% 45.8%

Intrinsic Growth 9.0% 40.1% 22.3% 23.9%

4 year Average 23.8%

4 year Median 23.1%
 Comparable Valuation
Market Data Financials Valuation

Share Shares Equity Enterprise

Company Ticker Price Outstanding Value Net Debt Value Revenue EBITDA Net Income EV/Revenue EV/EBITDA P/E
Asian Paints 3,037.2 95.9 2,91,328.2 1,390.4 2,91,634.6 35,282.2 7,943.6 5,169.6 8.3x 36.7x 56.4x
Berger Paints 571.6 116.6 66,631.3 302.6 66,483.3 11,260.4 1,960.3 1,168.9 5.9x 33.9x 56.9x
Kansai Nerolac 288.8 80.8 23,342.6 16.5 23,099.1 7,777.7 1,134.4 666.7 3.0x 20.4x 34.6x
Akzo Nobel 4,122.9 4.6 18,759.2 (462.8) 17,773.2 3,998.7 676.2 431.4 4.4x 26.3x 41.2x
Indigo Paints 1,481.9 4.8 7,053.8 (15.8) 7,005.3 1,271.8 244.7 143.8 5.5x 28.6x 48.7x

High 8.3x 36.7x 56.9x

75th Percentile 5.9x 33.9x 56.4x
Average 5.4x 29.2x 47.6x
Median 5.5x 28.6x 48.7x
25th Median 4.4x 26.3x 41.2x
Low 3.0x 20.4x 34.6x

Asian Paints Comparable EV/Revenue EV/EBITDA P/E

Implied Enterprise Value 1,94,342 2,27,393 2,53,199
Net Debt 1,390.4 1,390.4 1,390.4
Implied Market Value 1,92,951 2,26,003 2,51,809
Shares Outstanding 95.92 95.92 95.92
Implied Value per Share 2011.6 2356.2 2625.2

overvalued overvalued overvalued

 Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Calculation of PV of FCFF Mar-24A Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F Mar-28F Mar-29F

EBIT 7,455.48 9,178.92 11,300.77 13,913.11 17,129.32 21,089.02

Tax Rate 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00%
EBIT(1-T) 5,591.61 6,884.19 8,475.58 10,434.83 12,846.99 15,816.76
Less: Reinvestment Rate 53.37% 52.52% 51.68% 50.84% 50.00% 50.00%
Free Cash Flow to Firm 2,607.61 3,268.32 4,095.16 5,129.61 6,423.50 7,908.38
Mid Year Convention 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5
Discounting Factor 0.94 0.82 0.72 0.63 0.55
PV of FCFF 3,060.01 3,360.95 3,690.38 4,050.91 4,371.83

Expected Growth Rate 23.12%

Terminal Growth 6.80%
WACC 14.08%

Calculation of Terminal Value Sensitivity Analysis

963.9 13% 14.08% 15% 16%
FCFF(n+1) 9,736.52 5% 894.4 811.0 754.1 703.1
WACC 14.08% 6.8% 1098.0 963.8 877.3 802.9
Terminal Growth Rate 6.80% 7% 1128.2 985.6 894.4 816.5
8% 1315.3 1115.9 994.6 894.4
Terminal Value 1,33,762.92

Calculation of Equity Value Per Share

PV of FCFF 18,534.08
PV of Terminal Value 73,945.39
Value of Operating Assets 92,479.46

Add: Cash 1084.01

Less : Debt 1107
Value of Equity 92,456.47
No. of Shares 95.92

Equity Value per Share 963.89

Share Price 3037.2

Discount/Premium 3.2x
 Football Field Analysis- Data
OpenLow Low OpenHigh High
Comps 2011.6 2011.6 2625.2 2625.2
Football Field Analysis- Valuation Summary (Rs)
DCF Bear 703.1 703.1 894.4 894.4
4000.0 DCF Base 811.0 811.0 1115.9 1115.9
3,422.9
3500.0 DCF Bull 894.4 894.4 1315.3 1315.3
52W H/L 2670.1 2,670.1 3422.9 3,422.9
3000.0 2625.2
2500.0
2,670.1
2000.0
2011.6 1315.3
1500.0 1115.9
894.4
1000.0

500.0 811.0 894.4

703.1
0.0
Comps DCF Bear DCF Base DCF Bull 52W H/L
 ASIAN PAINTS LTD
(ASIANPAINT | BSE Code: 500820)
INR 3037.2
52 Week (High - INR 3422 & Low- INR 2670 )

About the Company

Asian Paints is the largest home decor company in India. The 80+ year old company has major brands like Asian Paints, Berger, Apco,
etc under its umbrella. The co. is into wall paints, wall coverings, waterproofing, texture painting, wall stickers, mechanized tools,
adhesives, modular kitchens, sanitaryware, lightings, soft furnishings, and uPVC windows.

Financial Summary
Revenues (INR Crs.) Net Profit (INR Crs.) Average Total Assets (INR Crs.)
35,495 5,460 27,840
34,489
24,369
29,101 21,657
4,106
18,247
21,713 3,139 3,031

2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024

Return on Equity (%) Return On Asset (%) Financial Leverage

1.64
31.5% 19.6% 1.63
27.4% 27.6% 17.2% 16.9%
22.8% 14.0% 1.60

1.59

2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024

2021 2022 2023 2024

Recent Updates
• The company’s consolidated revenue from sales decreased by 2.3% to ₹8,943.2 crore from ₹9,153.8 crore.
• The company’s profit after tax (PAT) also dropped over 8% quarter-on-quarter from ₹1,275.3 crore in the quarter that
ended March 31, 2024.
• The paints manufacturer said its installed capacity at the Mysuru plant increased from 3,00,000 KL per annum to
6,00,000 KL per annum in the June quarter.
• The total revenue of the company stood at Rs 8,730.76 crore, down 0.64 percent from Rs 8,787.34 crore last year.
• Profit after tax was expected around Rs 1,313 crore for the March quarter, up 4.4 percent from Rs 1,258 crore last year.
• Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBIDTA) for the quarter was at Rs 1,692 crore down 9.3
percent
 Dupont Analysis - Return on Equity & Return on Assets
Return on Equity ( ROE )
Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Net Profit 2,038.9 2,155.9 2,705.2 3,139.3 3,030.6 4,106.5 5,460.2
Average Shareholder Equity 8,007.1 8,940.4 9,800.4 11,468.2 13,308.9 14,901.9 17,360.3
Return on Equity 25.46% 24.11% 27.60% 27.37% 22.77% 27.56% 31.45%

ROE- Dupont Analysis

Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Net Profit 2,038.9 2,155.9 2,705.2 3,139.3 3,030.6 4,106.5 5,460.2
Revenue 16,824.6 19,240.1 20,211.3 21,712.8 29,101.3 34,488.6 35,494.7
Net Profit Margin (A) 12.12% 11.21% 13.38% 14.46% 10.41% 11.91% 15.38%

Revenue 16,824.6 19,240.1 20,211.3 21,712.8 29,101.3 34,488.6 35,494.7

Average Total Asset 13,084.3 15,006.2 16,193.4 18,246.7 21,656.9 24,368.9 27,840.1
Asset Turnover Ratio (B) 1.3x 1.3x 1.2x 1.2x 1.3x 1.4x 1.3x

Average Total Asset 13,084.3 15,006.2 16,193.4 18,246.7 21,656.9 24,368.9 27,840.1
Average Shareholder Equity 8,007.1 8,940.4 9,800.4 11,468.2 13,308.9 14,901.9 17,360.3
Equity Multiplier (C) 1.6x 1.7x 1.7x 1.6x 1.6x 1.6x 1.6x

Return on Equity (A*B*C) 25.46% 24.11% 27.60% 27.37% 22.77% 27.56% 31.45%

Return on Assets
Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Net Profit 2,038.9 2,155.9 2,705.2 3,139.3 3,030.6 4,106.5 5,460.2
Average Total Asset 13,084.3 15,006.2 16,193.4 18,246.7 21,656.9 24,368.9 27,840.1
Return on Asset 15.58% 14.37% 16.71% 17.20% 13.99% 16.85% 19.61%

ROA- Dupont Equation

Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Net Profit 2,038.9 2,155.9 2,705.2 3,139.3 3,030.6 4,106.5 5,460.2
Revenue 16,824.6 19,240.1 20,211.3 21,712.8 29,101.3 34,488.6 35,494.7
Net Profit Margin (A) 12.12% 11.21% 13.38% 14.46% 10.41% 11.91% 15.38%

Revenue 16,824.6 19,240.1 20,211.3 21,712.8 29,101.3 34,488.6 35,494.7

Average Total Asset 13,084.3 15,006.2 16,193.4 18,246.7 21,656.9 24,368.9 27,840.1
Asset Turnover Ratio (B) 1.3x 1.3x 1.2x 1.2x 1.3x 1.4x 1.3x

Return on Asset (A*B) 15.58% 14.37% 16.71% 17.20% 13.99% 16.85% 19.61%

Dupont Summary
• The ROE of the company increased from 25.46% in FY18 to 31.45% in FY24
• Asset turnover ratio has remained relatively stable around 1.2x–1.3x, with a slight improvement to
1.4x in Mar-23.
• The margin has fluctuated, peaking at 15.38% in Mar-24 from a low of 10.41% in Mar-22. This
indicates improved profitability in recent years

Disclaimer : This report is made as part of educational assignment and is meant for educational purpose only. The author of the report is not liable for
any losses due to actions taken basis this report. It is advisable to consult SEBI registered reasearch analyst before making any investments