COUNTING

Some times it is difficult to determine the number of

elements in a sample space by direct calculation. To
avoid this difficulty we use tree diagram.
Tree Diagram:

A tree diagram is a device used to enumerate all the

possible outcomes of a sequence of experiments where
each experiment can occur in a finite numbers of ways.
The tree is constructed from left to right, and the
number of branches at each point correspond to
the number of possible outcomes of the next
experiment.
If you toss a coin three times, what is the
probability of getting 3 heads?
The first step is to figure out your probability of getting a heads by tossing the coin once. The
probability is 0.5 (you have a 50% probability of tossing a heads and 50% probability of tossing a
tails). Those probabilities are represented at the ends of each branch
Next, you add two more branches to each branch to represent the second
coin toss. The probability of getting two heads is shown by the red arrow. To
get the probability, multiply the branches: 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.25 (25%). This makes
sense because your possible results for one head and one tails is HH, HT,
TT, or TH (each combination has a 25% probability).
Finally, add a third row (because we were trying to find the probability of
throwing 3 heads). Multiplying across the branches for HHH we get 0.5 * 0.5
*0.5 = 0.125, or 12.5%
Problem
A bowl contains three balls: one red, one blue and one
green. A child selects two balls at random. What is the
probability that at least one red ball?
Solution:
1st ball 2nd ball Outcomes Probability
1
B RB 6
R P(at least 1 red)
1
G RG 6
= P(RB) + P(BR)+
1
R BR 6 P(RG) + P(GR)
B 1
BG = 4/6
G 6
= 2/3
B GB
1
G 6
1
General Addition rule for probability
Theorem:- If A and B are any events in S,
then 𝐏 𝐀∪𝐁 =𝐏 𝐀 +𝐏 𝐁 −𝐏 𝐀∩𝐁
Proof:

From the figure 𝐴 = (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ) ∪ (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) and 𝐵 = (𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵) ∪ (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

Note that 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 , 𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)are mutually exclusive.
Applying Axiom-(3)

We have
𝑃 𝐴 = 𝑃[ 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ∪ 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ]
P(A) = 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 + 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ……………..(1)

𝑃 𝐵 = 𝑃[ 𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ]
P(B) = 𝑃 𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵 + 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ……………..(2)
Adding equations (1) and (2)
𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 + 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 + 𝑃 𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵 + 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ] ……(3)

From the figure 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ) ∪ (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ∪ 𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵

Then P 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 + 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 + 𝑃 𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵 ……(4)

Sub equation (4) in (3)

𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 +𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 −𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
 Problem
A card is drawn at random from a Well shuffled deck of 52 cards. Find
the probability of getting a spade or a king ?

Sol: Let S is the sample space.

n(S) = 52
Let A denote the event of getting a spade
Let B denote the event of getting a king
13 4
𝑃 𝐴 = ,𝑃 𝐵 =
52 52
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = the event of getting a spade and king
1
P(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) =
52
probability of getting a spade or a king = P 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵

𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 −𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
13 4 1
= + −
52 52 52
4
=
13
Problem
Three students A,B and C are in running race. A and B have the same
probability of winning and each is twice as likely to win as C. Find the
probability that B or C wins.

Sol: Let S is the sample space.

Given that 𝑃 𝐴 = 𝑃(𝐵)
and 𝑃 𝐴 = 2𝑃(𝐶)…………..(1)
We have
𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 +𝑃 𝐶 =1
⇒ 2𝑃 𝐶 + 2𝑃 𝐶 + 𝑃 𝐶 = 1
1 2 2
⇒ 𝑃 𝐶 = ,𝑃 𝐴 = and 𝑃 𝐵 =
5 5 5
Probability that B or C wins = 𝑃(𝐵 ∪ 𝐶)
=𝑃 𝐵 +𝑃 𝐶 −𝑃 𝐵∩𝐶
2 1
= + −0
5 5
3
=
5
Problem
From a city 3 news papers A,B and C are being published. A is
read by 20%, B is read by 16%, C is read by 14%, both A and B
are read by 8%, both A and C are read by 5%, both B and C are
read by 4% and all three A, B, C are read by 2%.
What is the percentage of the probability that read at least
one paper.
Sol: Give that
20 16 14
𝑃 𝐴 = ,𝑃 𝐵 = ,𝑃 𝐶 =
100 100 100
And
8 5 4
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 = ,𝑃 𝐴∩𝐶 = , 𝑃 𝐵∩𝐶 =
100 100 100
2
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵∩𝐶 =
100
𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵∪𝐶 = 𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 +𝑃 𝐶 −𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 −𝑃 𝐵∩𝐶
−𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 + 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶
20 16 14 8 4 5 2
= + + − − − +
100 100 100 100 100 100 100
35
=
100
Conditional Probability
If A and B are two events in a sample space S and 𝑃(𝐴) ≠ 0, then the
probability of B, after the event A has occurred, is called the conditional
probability of the event of B given A and is denoted by 𝑃 𝐵Τ𝐴
𝐵Τ 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
And define 𝑃 𝐴 =
𝑃(𝐴)
 Multiplication Theorem of Probability
St: In a random experiment if A ,B are two events such that 𝑃(𝐴) ≠ 0
and 𝑃(𝐵) ≠ 0 then
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 . 𝑃 𝐵Τ𝐴
𝑃 𝐵 ∩ 𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐵 . 𝑃 𝐴Τ𝐵

NOTE: if A and B are independent events then

𝑃 𝐵Τ𝐴 = 𝑃(𝐵) and 𝑃 𝐴Τ𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐴)
Problem
Find the probability of drawing 2 red balls in succession from a bag
containing 4 red and 5 black balls when the ball is drawn first is
(i) Not replaced
(ii) Replaced
Solution:

Let A denote the event of drawing a red ball in the first draw
Let B denote the event of drawing a red ball in second draw
(i) After the first draw the ball is not replaced.
the first balls can be drawn in 9-ways and the second in 8-ways.
Then both the balls can be drawn in 9 X 8 ways
There are 4 ways in which A can occur
And 3 ways in which B can occur
So A and B occur in 4 x 3 ways.
 𝐵Τ 3
𝑃 𝐴 =
8
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 . 𝑃 𝐵Τ𝐴
4 3 1
= . =
9 8 6
(ii) The first ball is replaced after the first draw

4 4 16
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 = . =
9 9 81
Problem
A class has 10 boys and 5 girls. Three students are selected at random
one after another. Find the probability that
(i) First two are boys and third is girl
(ii) First and third are same gender and second is of opposite gender.
Solution:
The no.of students = 15
(i) The probability that first two are boys and the third is girl is
10 9 5 15
𝑃 𝐵1 ∩ 𝐵2 ∩ 𝐺1 = . . =
15 14 13 91

(ii) The probability that first and third are boys and second is a girl
10 5 9 15
P(𝐸1 ) = . . =
15 14 13 91
The probability that first and third are girls and second is a boy
5 10 4 20
P(𝐸2 ) = . . =
15 14 13 273

Required probability is = P 𝐸1 + P(𝐸2 )

15 20 65
= + = = 0.238
91 273 273
Problem
Determine (i) 𝑃 𝐵Τ𝐴 (ii) 𝑃 𝐴Τ𝐵𝑐 if A and b are events with
1 1 1
𝑃 𝐴 = ,𝑃 𝐵 = and 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 =
3 4 2
Solution:
Given that
1 1 1
𝑃 𝐴 = ,𝑃 𝐵 = and 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 =
3 4 2
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 −𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵
1 1 1 1
= + - =
3 4 2 12
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 1Τ 1
(i) 𝑃 𝐵Τ𝐴 = 12
= 1Τ =
𝑃(𝐴) 3 4
 𝑐 1 3
𝑃 𝐵 =1−𝑃 𝐵 =1 − =
4 4
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 = 𝑃 𝐴 − 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵
1 1 1
= − =
3 12 4
𝐴Τ 𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵𝑐 1Τ
4 1
𝑃 𝐵𝑐 = = 3Τ =
𝑃 𝐵𝑐 4 3
Problem
Box A contains 5 red and 3 white marbles and box B contains 2 red and
6 white marbles. If a marble is drawn from each box, what is the
probability that they are both of same colour.
Solution:
Let A = The event that the marble is drawn from box A and is red.
1 5 5
𝑃 𝐴 = . =
2 8 16
Let B = The event that the marble is drawn from box B and is red.
1 2 1
𝑃 𝐵 = . =
2 8 8
Probability that both the marbles are red is
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 . 𝑃(𝐵)
5 1 5
= . =
16 8 128
Let C = The event that the marble is drawn from box A and is white.
1 3 3
𝑃 𝐶 = . =
2 8 16
Let D = The event that the marble is drawn from box B and is white.
1 6 3
𝑃 𝐷 = . =
2 8 8
Probability that both the marbles are white is
𝑃 𝐶 ∩ 𝐷 = 𝑃 𝐶 . 𝑃(𝐷)
3 3 9
= . =
16 8 128
The Probability that the marbles are of same colour

=𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 +𝑃 𝐶∩𝐷
5 9 14
= + =
128 128 128
Problem
Three machines I ,II, III produce 40% , 30%, 30% of the total number of
items of factory. The percentage of defective items of these machines
are 4%, 2%, 3%. If an item is selected at random, find the probability
that the item is defective.
 Solution:
Let A, B and C be the events that the machines I, II and III be chosen
respectively.
And
Let D be the event which denotes the defective item.
Given that
40 30 30
𝑃 𝐴 = ,𝑃 𝐵 = , 𝑃 𝐶 =
100 100 100
And
𝐷Τ 4 𝐷Τ 2 𝐷Τ 3
𝑃 𝐴 = ,𝑃 𝐵 = , 𝑃 𝐶 =
100 100 100
The probability that the selected item is defective is
𝑃 𝐷 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐷Τ𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 𝑃 𝐷Τ𝐵 + 𝑃(𝐶)𝑃 𝐷Τ𝐶
40 4 30 2 30 3
= . + . + .
100 100 100 100 100 100
41
=
1000
Bayes’ Theorem
Suppose that E1, E2 , ---------En are mutually exclusive events of a
sample space “ S ” such that P 𝐸𝑖 > 0 for i = 1,2,3, ---------n and A is
any arbitrary event of “ S ” such that P (A) > 0
and 𝐴 ⊆ ‫=𝑖𝑛ڂ‬1 𝐸𝑖 then the conditional probability of 𝐸𝑖 given A is

P( Ei ) P( A | Ei )
P( Ei | A) =
P( A1 ) P( A | E1 ) + P( A2 ) P( A | E2 ) + ... + P( An ) P( A | En )
Problem
Suppose 5 men out of 100 and 25 women out of 10,000 are colour
blind. A colour blind person is chosen at random, what is the
probability of the person being a male ( Assume male and female to be
in equal numbers) ?
Solution:
Given that
5 men out of 100 and 25 women out of 10,000 are colour blind
A colour blind person is chosen at random
1
The probability that the chosen person is male = 𝑃 𝑀 =
2
And
1
The probability that the chosen person is female = 𝑃 𝑊 =
2
Let B represent a blind person. Then
𝐵Τ 5
𝑃 𝑀 = = 0.05
100
𝑃 𝐵Τ = 25 = 0.0025
𝐹 10000
The probability that the chosen person is male is given by

P(M) P(𝑩ൗ𝑴)
𝐏 𝐌Τ𝐁 =
P(M) P(𝑩ൗ𝑴) + P(W) P(𝑩ൗ𝑾)

0.05 𝑋 0.5
= = 0.95
0.05 𝑋 0.5+0.0025 𝑋 0.5
Problem
Of the three men , the chances that a politician, a business man or an
academician will be appointed as a vice-chancellor (V.C) of a university
are 0.5,0.3,0.2 respectively. Probability that research is promoted by
these persons if they are appointed as V.C are 0.3, 0.7, 0.8 respectively.

(i) Determine the Probability that research is promoted

(ii) If research is promoted , what is the Probability that V.C is an
academician?
Solution:
Let A, B, C be the events that a politician, businessmen or an
academician will be appointed as V.C of the three men.
Then
𝑃 𝐴 = 0.5 , 𝑃 𝐵 = 0.3, 𝑃 𝐶 = 0.2

Probability that research is promoted by these persons if they are

appointed as V.C are
𝑃 𝑅Τ𝐴 = 0.3 , 𝑃 𝑅Τ𝐵 = 0.7 , 𝑃 𝑅Τ𝐶 = 0.8
(i) Probability that research is promoted
= 𝐏 𝐀 𝐏 𝑹Τ𝑨 + 𝐏 𝑩 𝐏 𝑹Τ𝑩 + 𝐏(𝐂)𝐏 𝑹Τ𝑪
= 0.5 . 0.3 + 0.3 . 0.7 + 0.2 . (0.8)
= 0.52
(ii) The Probability that research is promoted when the V.C is an
academician
𝐏(𝐂)𝐏 𝑹ൗ
𝑃 𝐶Τ = 𝑪
𝑅 𝐏 𝐀 𝐏 𝑹ൗ𝑨 +𝐏 𝑩 𝐏 𝑹ൗ𝑩 +𝐏(𝐂)𝐏 𝑹ൗ𝑪
0.16
=
0.15+0.21+0.16
= 0.30769
Problem
A businessman goes to hotels X, Y, Z, 20%, 50%, 30% of the time
respectively. It is known that 5%, 4%, 8% of the rooms in X, Y, Z hotels
have faulty plumbing. What is the probability that businessman’s room
having faulty plumbing is assigned to hotel Z?
Solution:
Let the probabilities of business man going to hotels X, Y and Z
respectively P(X) ,P(Y),P(Z).
Then
20 2 50 5 30 3
𝑃 𝑋 = = ,𝑃 𝑌 = = ,𝑃 𝑍 = =
100 10 100 10 100 10

Let F be the event of the room having faulty plumbing then

𝐹Τ 5 1 𝐹Τ 4 1 𝐹Τ 8 2
𝑃 𝑋 = = ,𝑃 𝑌 = = ,𝑃 𝑍 = =
100 20 100 25 100 25
The probability that businessman’s room having faulty plumbing is
assigned to hotel Z
𝑍Τ 𝐏(𝐙)𝐏 𝑭ൗ𝒁
𝑃 𝐹 =
𝐏 𝑿 𝐏 𝑭ൗ𝑿 +𝐏 𝒀 𝐏 𝑭ൗ𝒀 +𝐏(𝐙)𝐏 𝑭ൗ𝒁

3 2
.
10 25 4
= 2 1 5 1 3 2 =
. + . + . 9
10 20 10 25 10 25