StatTox Testing WiSe2425
StatTox Testing WiSe2425
Testing
Kirsten Schorning
Department of Statistics,
TU Dortmund University
Introduction
1.1 Lecturer
JProf. Dr. Kirsten Schorning (lecture)
Mathematics Building, Room 725
Email: schorning@statistik.tu-dortmund.de
1.1 Organization
Course: Statistics in toxicology (testing)
Lecture dates:
Monday, 10:15 - 11:45 in C/HS 1
Exercise dates:
Wednesday, 8.30-10.00 in M/E 27
Moodle: Statistics in Toxicology II, WiSe 24/25
Website:
https://moodle.tu-dortmund.de/course/view.php?id=48552
1.1 Organization
Admission to exam
For admission to the written exam, 50% of the points of the graded
exercise sheet 4 must be achieved. The submission of sheet 4 is
mandatory, and it will be corrected in detail.
The exercises will consist of theoretical and software exercises.
Further information can be found on the Moodle page.
Admission to exam via BOSS system, deadline TBA via Moodle.
Written exam date
One hour exam
Room and data: TBA in Moodle
Written retry exam date
One hour exam
Room and data: TBA in Moodle
1.1 Organization
Modules
BS 14, BS 15 ”Spezialgebiete”, ”Quantitative Methoden”
MS 6, MS 7 ”Spezialgebiete”
MD E2-12 ”Applications - Elective Courses”
Prerequisites
For BS: Statistik I - III
For MD: MD Req4 Probability, MD Req5 Inference, MD Req6
Linear models
No deep knowledge in genetics and biology, but at least a strong
interest
1.1 Content
The main topic of the lecture is the analysis of data from toxicology,
especially dose-response measurements. Specific topics are:
Proof of hazard using simultaneous comparisons with a negative
control
Multiple testing
Tests for normally distributed endpoints and for proportions
Trend tests
Analysis of long-term effects in cancer studies
Survival analysis, tests for survival endpoint
Analysis of effects in mutagenicity assays
Mixture distributions
EM algorithm
Multiple testing for genomic data
Family-wise error rate
False discovery rate
Clinical trials phase I studies
1.1 Literature
Main book for this course:
Hothorn, L.A.: Statistics in Toxicology Using R, Chapman and
Hall/CRC, 2016 (SiTUR)
1.1 Motivation
1.1 Toxicology
Definitions
a science that deals with poisons and their effect and with the
problems involved (such as clinical, industrial, or legal problems)
(Merriam-Webster, 22.11.2023)
Toxicology is a scientific discipline, overlapping with biology,
chemistry, pharmacology, and medicine, that involves the study of
the adverse effects of chemical substances on living organisms and
the practice of diagnosing and treating exposures to toxins and
toxicants. The relationship between dose and its effects on the
exposed organism is of high significance in toxicology. Factors that
influence chemical toxicity include the dosage, duration of exposure
(whether it is acute or chronic), route of exposure, species, age, sex,
and environment. Toxicologists are experts on poisons and
poisoning. There is a movement for evidence-based toxicology as
part of the larger movement towards evidence-based practices.
(Wikipedia, 05.10.2024)
1.1 Toxicology
Definitions
Toxicology is a field of science that helps us understand the harmful
effects that chemicals, substances, or situations can have on people,
animals, and the environment. Some refer to toxicology as the
”Science of Safety” because, as a field, it has evolved from a science
focused on studying poisons and adverse effects of chemical
exposures to a science devoted to studying safety.
(NIH, https://www.niehs.nih.gov/health/topics/science/toxicology,
05.10.2024)
Measures of variability
Given are data points x1 , .r
. . , xn with mean x̄
n
1
P
Standard deviation: sd = n−1
(xi − x̄ )2 , measures variability of
i=1
individual data points
Standard error: √sdn , measures variability of x̄
MAD: median absolute deviation from median, more robust
alternative for sd
Boxplots
Many different ways to construct boxplots
Box indicates quartiles, with median (second quartile) as line within
the box
Whiskers extended to smallest value within 1.5 IQR of the lower
quartile and to largest value within 1.5 IQR of the upper quartile
More extreme points typically plotted as single points
Attention: For very small sample size (in toxicology, e.g., often 3
values) overinterpretation of five measures, for very large sample size
overinterpretation of extreme values (not necessarily outliers!)
1.2 Presentation
Presentation of data using a table
1.2 Presentation
Presentation of data using a barplot
1.2 Presentation
1.2 Presentations
1.2 Presentation
Comparison of two graphical presentations (next slide)
Data represent litter-specific pup weights (of newborn rats)
Litter: a number of young animals born to an animal at one time
Barplot visualizes only means and standard deviations
Boxplot shows individual data (dots, jittered), parametric and
non-parametric summary measures (mean, standard deviation (both
next to boxplot), median, interquartile range), and per-litter
structure (including group-specific number of litters and number of
animals)
1.2 Presentation
Presentation styles
Rejection/non-rejection of H0 , letters indicate non-distinguishable
treatment groups
Rejection of H0 for three α-levels (0.05, 0.01, 0.001), visualized by
stars (∗, ∗∗, ∗∗∗)
p-value (p)
confidence interval
Stars are still common in toxicology, also p-values are frequently used
p-value has philosophical disadvantage
A small value does not prove H1 , but only demonstrates that H0
does not fit well to the data
In other words: a p-value is the probability of observing a sample
statistic that is at least as extreme as the sample statistic when one
assumes that the null hypothesis is true
A p-value refers to P(data|H0 ), not to P(H0 |data) !
πi − π0
πi /(1 − πi )
π0 /(1 − π0 )
upper p-value
comparison
against vehicle C–
lower p-value
comparison
against C+
p-value for
Cycle25
corresponds to
t-test for C–
versus C+
levels(mclin$dose); levels(mclin$variable)
BUN : 62.5 − 0
BUN : 125 − 0
BUN : 250 − 0
BUN : 500 − 0
BUN : 1000 − 0
Creat : 62.5 − 0
Creat : 125 − 0
Creat : 250 − 0
Creat : 500 − 0
Creat : 1000 − 0
TP : 62.5 − 0
TP : 125 − 0
TP : 250 − 0
TP : 500 − 0
TP : 1000 − 0
ALB : 62.5 − 0
ALB : 125 − 0
ALB : 250 − 0
ALB : 500 − 0
ALB : 1000 − 0
SerumGlucose : 62.5 − 0
SerumGlucose : 125 − 0
SerumGlucose : 250 − 0
SerumGlucose : 500 − 0
SerumGlucose : 1000 − 0
CreatKinase : 62.5 − 0
CreatKinase : 125 − 0
CreatKinase : 250 − 0
CreatKinase : 500 − 0
CreatKinase : 1000 − 0
ALT : 62.5 − 0
ALT : 125 − 0
ALT : 250 − 0
ALT : 500 − 0
ALT : 1000 − 0
SDH : 62.5 − 0
SDH : 125 − 0
SDH : 250 − 0
SDH : 500 − 0
SDH : 1000 − 0
ALP : 62.5 − 0
ALP : 125 − 0
ALP : 250 − 0
ALP : 500 − 0
ALP : 1000 − 0
Nuc : 62.5 − 0
Nuc : 125 − 0
Nuc : 250 − 0
Nuc : 500 − 0
Nuc : 1000 − 0
TBA : 62.5 − 0
TBA : 125 − 0
TBA : 250 − 0
TBA : 500 − 0
TBA : 1000 − 0
Cholesterol : 62.5 − 0
Cholesterol : 125 − 0
Cholesterol : 250 − 0
Cholesterol : 500 − 0
Cholesterol : 1000 − 0
Triglyceride : 62.5 − 0
Triglyceride : 125 − 0
Triglyceride : 250 − 0
Triglyceride : 500 − 0
Triglyceride : 1000 − 0
Chloride : 62.5 − 0
Chloride : 125 − 0
Chloride : 250 − 0
Chloride : 500 − 0
Chloride : 1000 − 0
Sodium : 62.5 − 0
Sodium : 125 − 0
Sodium : 250 − 0
Sodium : 500 − 0
Sodium : 1000 − 0
Calc : 62.5 − 0
Calc : 125 − 0
Calc : 250 − 0
Calc : 500 − 0
Calc : 1000 − 0
PHOS : 62.5 − 0
PHOS : 125 − 0
PHOS : 250 − 0
PHOS : 500 − 0
PHOS : 1000 − 0
Potassium : 62.5 − 0
Potassium : 125 − 0
Potassium : 250 − 0
Potassium : 500 − 0
Potassium : 1000 − 0
BUN : 62.5 / 0
BUN : 125 / 0
BUN : 250 / 0
BUN : 500 / 0
BUN : 1000 / 0
Creat : 62.5 / 0
Creat : 125 / 0
Creat : 250 / 0
Creat : 500 / 0
Creat : 1000 / 0
TP : 62.5 / 0
TP : 125 / 0
TP : 250 / 0
TP : 500 / 0
TP : 1000 / 0
ALB : 62.5 / 0
ALB : 125 / 0
ALB : 250 / 0
ALB : 500 / 0
ALB : 1000 / 0
SerumGlucose : 62.5 / 0
SerumGlucose : 125 / 0
SerumGlucose : 250 / 0
SerumGlucose : 500 / 0
SerumGlucose : 1000 / 0
CreatKinase : 62.5 / 0
CreatKinase : 125 / 0
CreatKinase : 250 / 0
CreatKinase : 500 / 0
CreatKinase : 1000 / 0
ALT : 62.5 / 0
ALT : 125 / 0
ALT : 250 / 0
ALT : 500 / 0
ALT : 1000 / 0
SDH : 62.5 / 0
SDH : 125 / 0
SDH : 250 / 0
SDH : 500 / 0
SDH : 1000 / 0
ALP : 62.5 / 0
ALP : 125 / 0
ALP : 250 / 0
ALP : 500 / 0
ALP : 1000 / 0
Nuc : 62.5 / 0
Nuc : 125 / 0
Nuc : 250 / 0
Nuc : 500 / 0
Nuc : 1000 / 0
TBA : 62.5 / 0
TBA : 125 / 0
TBA : 250 / 0
TBA : 500 / 0
TBA : 1000 / 0
Cholesterol : 62.5 / 0
Cholesterol : 125 / 0
Cholesterol : 250 / 0
Cholesterol : 500 / 0
Cholesterol : 1000 / 0
Triglyceride : 62.5 / 0
Triglyceride : 125 / 0
Triglyceride : 250 / 0
Triglyceride : 500 / 0
Triglyceride : 1000 / 0
Chloride : 62.5 / 0
Chloride : 125 / 0
Chloride : 250 / 0
Chloride : 500 / 0
Chloride : 1000 / 0
Sodium : 62.5 / 0
Sodium : 125 / 0
Sodium : 250 / 0
Sodium : 500 / 0
Sodium : 1000 / 0
Calc : 62.5 / 0
Calc : 125 / 0
Calc : 250 / 0
Calc : 500 / 0
Calc : 1000 / 0
PHOS : 62.5 / 0
PHOS : 125 / 0
PHOS : 250 / 0
PHOS : 500 / 0
PHOS : 1000 / 0
Potassium : 62.5 / 0
Potassium : 125 / 0
Potassium : 250 / 0
Potassium : 500 / 0
Potassium : 1000 / 0
0 2 4 6 8
BUN : 62.5 / 0
BUN : 125 / 0
BUN : 250 / 0
BUN : 500 / 0
BUN : 1000 / 0
Creat : 62.5 / 0
Creat : 125 / 0
Creat : 250 / 0
Creat : 500 / 0
Creat : 1000 / 0
TP : 62.5 / 0
TP : 125 / 0
TP : 250 / 0
TP : 500 / 0
TP : 1000 / 0
ALB : 62.5 / 0
ALB : 125 / 0
ALB : 250 / 0
ALB : 500 / 0
ALB : 1000 / 0
SerumGlucose : 62.5 / 0
SerumGlucose : 125 / 0
SerumGlucose : 250 / 0
SerumGlucose : 500 / 0
SerumGlucose : 1000 / 0
CreatKinase : 62.5 / 0
CreatKinase : 125 / 0
CreatKinase : 250 / 0
CreatKinase : 500 / 0
CreatKinase : 1000 / 0
ALT : 62.5 / 0
ALT : 125 / 0
ALT : 250 / 0
ALT : 500 / 0
ALT : 1000 / 0
SDH : 62.5 / 0
SDH : 125 / 0
SDH : 250 / 0
SDH : 500 / 0
SDH : 1000 / 0
ALP : 62.5 / 0
ALP : 125 / 0
ALP : 250 / 0
ALP : 500 / 0
ALP : 1000 / 0
Nuc : 62.5 / 0
Nuc : 125 / 0
Nuc : 250 / 0
Nuc : 500 / 0
Nuc : 1000 / 0
TBA : 62.5 / 0
TBA : 125 / 0
TBA : 250 / 0
TBA : 500 / 0
TBA : 1000 / 0
Cholesterol : 62.5 / 0
Cholesterol : 125 / 0
Cholesterol : 250 / 0
Cholesterol : 500 / 0
Cholesterol : 1000 / 0
Triglyceride : 62.5 / 0
Triglyceride : 125 / 0
Triglyceride : 250 / 0
Triglyceride : 500 / 0
Triglyceride : 1000 / 0
Chloride : 62.5 / 0
Chloride : 125 / 0
Chloride : 250 / 0
Chloride : 500 / 0
Chloride : 1000 / 0
Sodium : 62.5 / 0
Sodium : 125 / 0
Sodium : 250 / 0
Sodium : 500 / 0
Sodium : 1000 / 0
Calc : 62.5 / 0
Calc : 125 / 0
Calc : 250 / 0
Calc : 500 / 0
Calc : 1000 / 0
PHOS : 62.5 / 0
PHOS : 125 / 0
PHOS : 250 / 0
PHOS : 500 / 0
PHOS : 1000 / 0
Potassium : 62.5 / 0
Potassium : 125 / 0
Potassium : 250 / 0
Potassium : 500 / 0
Potassium : 1000 / 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
BUN : 62.5 / 0
BUN : 125 / 0
BUN : 250 / 0
BUN : 500 / 0
BUN : 1000 / 0
TP : 62.5 / 0
TP : 125 / 0
TP : 250 / 0
TP : 500 / 0
TP : 1000 / 0
ALB : 62.5 / 0
ALB : 125 / 0
ALB : 250 / 0
ALB : 500 / 0
ALB : 1000 / 0
SerumGlucose : 62.5 / 0
SerumGlucose : 125 / 0
SerumGlucose : 250 / 0
SerumGlucose : 500 / 0
SerumGlucose : 1000 / 0
CreatKinase : 62.5 / 0
CreatKinase : 125 / 0
CreatKinase : 250 / 0
CreatKinase : 500 / 0
CreatKinase : 1000 / 0
ALT : 62.5 / 0
ALT : 125 / 0
ALT : 250 / 0
ALT : 500 / 0
ALT : 1000 / 0
SDH : 62.5 / 0
SDH : 125 / 0
SDH : 250 / 0
SDH : 500 / 0
SDH : 1000 / 0
ALP : 62.5 / 0
ALP : 125 / 0
ALP : 250 / 0
ALP : 500 / 0
ALP : 1000 / 0
Nuc : 62.5 / 0
Nuc : 125 / 0
Nuc : 250 / 0
Nuc : 500 / 0
Nuc : 1000 / 0
TBA : 62.5 / 0
TBA : 125 / 0
TBA : 250 / 0
TBA : 500 / 0
TBA : 1000 / 0
Cholesterol : 62.5 / 0
Cholesterol : 125 / 0
Cholesterol : 250 / 0
Cholesterol : 500 / 0
Cholesterol : 1000 / 0
Triglyceride : 62.5 / 0
Triglyceride : 125 / 0
Triglyceride : 250 / 0
Triglyceride : 500 / 0
Triglyceride : 1000 / 0
Chloride : 62.5 / 0
Chloride : 125 / 0
Chloride : 250 / 0
Chloride : 500 / 0
Chloride : 1000 / 0
Sodium : 62.5 / 0
Sodium : 125 / 0
Sodium : 250 / 0
Sodium : 500 / 0
Sodium : 1000 / 0
Calc : 62.5 / 0
Calc : 125 / 0
Calc : 250 / 0
Calc : 500 / 0
Calc : 1000 / 0
PHOS : 62.5 / 0
PHOS : 125 / 0
PHOS : 250 / 0
PHOS : 500 / 0
PHOS : 1000 / 0
Potassium : 62.5 / 0
Potassium : 125 / 0
Potassium : 250 / 0
Potassium : 500 / 0
Potassium : 1000 / 0
0 2 4 6 8 10