Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 123 views

    PPA 691 - Seminar in Public Policy Analysis: Lecture 5 - Forecasting Policy Futures

    Uploaded by

    kuldip singh
    This document discusses forecasting methods in policy analysis. It defines forecasting as producing information about future policy states based on past information. There are three types of forecasting: projections based on trend extrapolation, predictions based on explicit theories, and conjectures based on expert judgment. The document outlines various forecasting methods like time series analysis, theory mapping, causal modeling, and Delphi techniques. It also discusses the objectives, limitations, and approaches to forecasting for policy analysis.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    PPA 691 - Seminar in Public Policy Analysis: Lecture 5 - Forecasting Policy Futures

    Uploaded by

    kuldip singh
    123 views21 pages
    This document discusses forecasting methods in policy analysis. It defines forecasting as producing information about future policy states based on past information. There are three types of forecasting: projections based on trend extrapolation, predictions based on explicit theories, and conjectures based on expert judgment. The document outlines various forecasting methods like time series analysis, theory mapping, causal modeling, and Delphi techniques. It also discusses the objectives, limitations, and approaches to forecasting for policy analysis.

    Original Description:

    forecasting in policy

    Original Title

    PPA_691_Lecture5-6

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    This document discusses forecasting methods in policy analysis. It defines forecasting as producing information about future policy states based on past information. There are three types of forecasting: projections based on trend extrapolation, predictions based on explicit theories, and conjectures based on expert judgment. The document outlines various forecasting methods like time series analysis, theory mapping, causal modeling, and Delphi techniques. It also discusses the objectives, limitations, and approaches to forecasting for policy analysis.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    123 views21 pages

    PPA 691 - Seminar in Public Policy Analysis: Lecture 5 - Forecasting Policy Futures

    Uploaded by

    kuldip singh
    This document discusses forecasting methods in policy analysis. It defines forecasting as producing information about future policy states based on past information. There are three types of forecasting: projections based on trend extrapolation, predictions based on explicit theories, and conjectures based on expert judgment. The document outlines various forecasting methods like time series analysis, theory mapping, causal modeling, and Delphi techniques. It also discusses the objectives, limitations, and approaches to forecasting for policy analysis.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    You are on page 1of 21

    PPA 691 Seminar in Public

    Policy Analysis
    Lecture 5 Forecasting Policy
    Futures

    Forecasting in Policy Analysis


    Forecasting is a procedure for producing factual

    information about future states of society on the


    basis of prior information about policy problems.
    Forms of forecasting.
    Projection.
    A forecast based on the extrapolation of current and historical
    trends into the future.

    Prediction.
    A forecast based on explicit theoretical assumptions.

    Conjecture.
    A forecast based on informed or expert judgments about future
    states of society.

    Forecasting in Policy Analysis


    Aims of forecasting.
    Forecasts provide information about future
    changes in policies and their consequences.
    Forecasting permits greater control through
    understanding past policies and their
    consequences, implying that the future is
    determined by the past.
    Forecasting also enables us to shape the future
    in an active manner, irrespective of what has
    happened in the past.

    Forecasting in Policy Analysis


    Limitations of forecasting.
    Forecast accuracy.
    Recent simple forecasting models have had huge errors in recent
    years (as much as 50%) in econometric forecasting.

    Comparative yield.
    Both simple and complex theoretical models have been no more
    accurate than simple extrapolative models and informed expert
    judgment.

    Context.
    Institutional (nonprofit more accurate than business and government).
    Temporal (long-term less accurate than short-term).
    Historical (modern complexity reduces accuracy).

    Assumption drag.

    Forecasting in Policy Analysis


    Types of futures.
    Potential futures.
    Future societal states that may occur.

    Plausible futures.
    Future states that, on the basis of assumptions about causation
    in nature and society, are believed to be likely if policymakers
    do not intervene to redirect the course of events.

    Normative futures.
    Potential and plausible futures which are consistent with an
    analysts conception of future needs, values, and opportunities.
    The specification of normative futures narrows the range of
    potential and plausible futures, thus linking forecasts to
    specific goals and objectives.

    Forecasting in Policy Analysis


    Table 1. Contrast between goals and objectives
    CHARACTERISTIC

    GOALS

    OBJECTIVES

    Broadly stated (. . . To
    upgrade the quality of
    health care)

    Concrete (. . . Increase
    the number of physicians
    by 10 percent)

    Definition of terms

    Formal ( . . . The quality


    of health care refers to
    the accessibility of
    medical services)

    Operational ( . . . The
    quality of health care
    refers to the number of
    physicians per 100,000
    persons . . .)

    Time period

    Unspecified ( . . . In the
    future)

    Specified ( . . . In the
    period 2006-2016)

    Nonquantitative
    (adequate health care
    insurance)

    Frequently quantitative
    ( . . . The number persons
    covered per 1,000
    persons)

    Broadly defined ( . . .
    People in need of care)

    Specifically defined ( . . .
    Families with incomes
    below $19,000)

    Specification of purposes

    Measurement procedure

    Treatment of target groups

    Forecasting in Policy Analysis


    Sources of goals, objectives, and alternatives.
    Authority.
    Insight.
    Method.
    Scientific theories.
    Motivation.
    Parallel case.
    Analogy.
    Ethical systems.

    Approaches to Forecasting
    Approaches to forecasting.
    Decide what to forecast, or determine the object
    of the forecast.
    Decide how to make the forecast, or select one
    or more bases for the forecast.
    Choose techniques that are most appropriate for
    the object and base selected.

    Approaches to Forecasting
    Objects.
    The object of a forecast is the point of reference
    of a projection, prediction, or conjecture.
    Objects of forecasting.

    Consequences of existing policies.


    Consequences of new policies.
    Contents of new policies.
    Behavior of policy stakeholders.

    Approaches to Forecasting
    Bases.
    The basis of a forecast is the set of assumptions
    or data used to establish the plausibility of
    estimates of consequences of existing or new
    policies, the content of new policies, or the
    behavior of policy stakeholders.

    Approaches to Forecasting
    Bases (contd.).
    Bases for forecasts.
    Trend extrapolation (projection).
    The extension into the future of trends observed in the past.
    Based on inductive logic.
    Theoretical assumptions (prediction).
    Systematically structured and empirically testable sets of laws
    or propositions that make predictions about the occurrence of
    one event based on another.
    Based on deductive logic.
    Informed judgments (conjecture).
    Knowledge based on experience and insight, rather than
    inductive or deductive reasoning.
    Based on retroductive logic.

    Methods and Techniques of


    Forecasting
    APPROACH
    BASIS
    APPROPRIATE

    PRODUCT

    TECHNIQUES
    Extrapolative
    forecasting

    Trend extrapolation

    Classical time-series analysis


    Linear trend estimation
    Exponential weighting
    Data transformation
    Catastrophe methodology

    Projections

    Theoretical forecasting

    Theory

    Theory mapping
    Causal modeling
    Regression analysis
    Point and interval estimation
    Correlational analysis

    Predictions

    Judgmental forecasting

    Informed judgment

    Conventional Delphi
    Policy Delphi
    Cross-impact analysis
    Feasibility assessment

    Conjectures

    Methods and Techniques of


    Forecasting
    Classical time-series analysis.
    Time series are made up four components.

    Secular trend.
    Seasonal variation.
    Cyclical fluctuations.
    Irregular movements.

    Linear trend estimation.


    Nonlinear time series.

    Oscillations.
    Cycles.
    Growth curves.
    Decline curves.
    Catastrophes.

    Time Series Example

    Methods and Techniques of


    Forecasting
    Linear forecasting example.
    Major disaster data set, 1953-2007.
    Disaster Declarations = 9.851 + .803 * years; R 2 = .592.
    Where 1953 is set to zero.

    1953 1971: Disaster Declarations = 13.516 + 0.340 * years;


    R2 = .103.
    1972 - 1988: Disaster Declarations = 71.419 - 1.551 * years;
    R2 = .497.
    1989 - 2007: Disaster Declarations = -9.368 + 1.281* years; R 2
    = .329.
    Projection for 2008 (55) using whole data set: 54.0.
    Projection for 2008 (55) using post-1988 set: 61.1.

    Methods and Techniques of


    Forecasting
    Theoretical forecasting.
    Theory mapping.

    Types of causal arguments.


    Convergent arguments.
    Divergent arguments.
    Serial arguments.
    Cyclic arguments.
    Procedures for uncovering the structure of an argument.
    Separate and number each assumption.
    Underline the words that indicate claims (therefore, thus,
    hence).
    When specific words are omitted, but implied, supply the appropriate
    logical indicators in brackets.
    Arrange number assumptions and claims in an arrow diagram that
    illustrates the causal argument or theory.

    Methods and Techniques of


    Forecasting
    Example for theory mapping from Daniels

    and Clark-Daniels.
    http://www.csub.edu/~rdaniels/Pages%20from
    %20DanielsClarkDanielsIJMED.pdf
    .

    Methods and Techniques of


    Forecasting

    Causal modeling and regression analysis.


    The creation of theoretical models on the basis
    of previous research and logic.
    The testing of these models with causal analysis
    methods such as path analysis and structural
    equation modeling.
    Example:
    http://www.csub.edu/~rdaniels/Model%20of%20Pre
    sidential%20Disaster%20Decision-Making.xls
    .

    Methods and Techniques of


    Forecasting
    Judgmental forecasting.
    Delphi technique.
    Principles.

    Selective anonymity.
    Iteration.
    Informed multiple advocacy.
    Polarized statistical response.
    Structured conflict.
    Computer conferencing.

    Methods and Techniques of


    Forecasting
    Judgmental forecasting (contd.).
    Delphi technique (contd.).

    Steps.
    Issue specification.
    Selection of advocates.
    Questionnaire design.
    Forecasting items (probability of occurrence).
    Issue items (ranking of importance).
    Goal items (desirability and feasibility).
    Option items (alternatives).
    Analysis of first-round results.
    Development of subsequent questionnaires.
    Organization of group meetings.
    Preparation of final report.

    Methods and Techniques of


    Forecasting
    Delphi article.
    http://www.csub.edu/~rdaniels/ch3b1.pdf.

    You might also like

    pFad - Phonifier reborn

    Pfad - The Proxy pFad of © 2024 Garber Painting. All rights reserved.

    Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.


    Alternative Proxies:

    Alternative Proxy

    pFad Proxy

    pFad v3 Proxy

    pFad v4 Proxy