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    Role of The Indian and Atlantic Oceans On The Climate Variability of Eastern Africa

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    Dedy Suryawan
    1) The climate variability of Eastern Africa is influenced by sea surface temperatures in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans through complex interactions. 2) General circulation model simulations indicate a strong role for Indian Ocean SSTs in East African rainfall variability. 3) Understanding the mechanisms driving SST variability in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans is important for improving understanding and prediction of East Africa's climate.

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    Role of The Indian and Atlantic Oceans On The Climate Variability of Eastern Africa

    Uploaded by

    Dedy Suryawan
    9 views20 pages
    1) The climate variability of Eastern Africa is influenced by sea surface temperatures in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans through complex interactions. 2) General circulation model simulations indicate a strong role for Indian Ocean SSTs in East African rainfall variability. 3) Understanding the mechanisms driving SST variability in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans is important for improving understanding and prediction of East Africa's climate.

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    1) The climate variability of Eastern Africa is influenced by sea surface temperatures in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans through complex interactions. 2) General circulation model simulations indicate a strong role for Indian Ocean SSTs in East African rainfall variability. 3) Understanding the mechanisms driving SST variability in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans is important for improving understanding and prediction of East Africa's climate.

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    9 views20 pages

    Role of The Indian and Atlantic Oceans On The Climate Variability of Eastern Africa

    Uploaded by

    Dedy Suryawan
    1) The climate variability of Eastern Africa is influenced by sea surface temperatures in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans through complex interactions. 2) General circulation model simulations indicate a strong role for Indian Ocean SSTs in East African rainfall variability. 3) Understanding the mechanisms driving SST variability in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans is important for improving understanding and prediction of East Africa's climate.

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    ROLE OF THE INDIAN AND

    ATLANTIC OCEANS ON THE


    CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF
    EASTERN AFRICA
    Charles C. Mutai
    Kenya Meteorological Department
    P. O. Box 30259, Nairobi Kenya
    CURRENT UNDERSTANDING
    OF EAST AFRICAN CLIMATE
    Rainfall is the climatic factor of maximum significance
    Seasonal rainfall patterns related to migration of ITCZ:
    long rains (MAM), short rains (S/OND)
    Interannual variability of seasonal rains results from
    complex interactions of forced and free atmospheric
    variations (OND variability stronger than MAM):
    SST forcing in Pacific, Atlantic and Indian (Ogallo et al.
    1988; Nyenzi 1992; Ininda 1994; Mutai et al. 1988; among others)
    OND rainfall positively related to ENSO
    Large/synoptic/meso - scale circulations; Anticyclones
    cyclones, easterly/westerly perturbations (Nakamura 1969;
    Anyamba 1984; Hastenrath et al. 1993; Okoola 1999; Mutai and
    Ward 2000; etc).
    CURRENT UNDERSTANDING
    OF EAST AFRICAN CLIMATE (2)
    Predictive schemes based solely on ENSO showed
    skill (Farmer 1988; Hutchinson 1988; KMD/DMCN; etc.)
    Anomalous SST in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans -
    associated with rainfall fluctuations (Reverdin et al.
    1986; Flohn 1987; Nicholson and Entekhabi 1987; Webster et
    al. 1999; Saji et al. 1999; Black et al. 2002; among others)
    Two SSTs (of the three) predictors used by Mutai et
    al. (1998) largely independent ENSO ~ SST
    variability in the northwestern tropical Pacific - Indian
    Ocean and in the equatorial - tropical South Atlantic.
    GCM simulations (Goddard and Graham 1999; Latif et al.
    1999) indicated strong role for the Indian Ocean SSTs
    in East African rainfall variability
    SST gradients in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean are
    currently used in monthly / seasonal climate
    monitoring and forecasting (KMD and DMCN)
    MEAN MONTHLY RAINFALL (mm)
    OVER EAST AFRICA, 1931-1985

    Long Rains

    Short Rains

    0-25 25-50 50-100 100-200 > 200 mm

    Nyenzi (1992)
    REGIONALIZATION OF E.A. RAINFALL

    Indeje et al. (2000)


    OND SST / OLR TELECONNECTIONS

    X -1
    MAM SST/OLR TELECONNECTIONS
    1951-96

    1974-96
    OND RAINFALL-WIND TELECONNECTIONS

    1974-96
    OND RAINFALL-WIND TELECONNECTIONS

    E
    N
    S
    O

    v
    a
    r
    i
    a
    n
    c
    e

    -
    r
    CONTRIBUTION OF ATLANTIC OCEAN IN
    CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF EAST AFRICA
    Mutai et al. (1998) developed an empirical
    prediction for East Africa OND rainfall based
    on three precursor global SST REOFs:
    SST REOF4 closely reflect the ENSO signal
    SST REOF5 - SST variance in northwestern
    tropical Pacific - Indian Ocean
    SST REOF2 - variability in the equatorial and
    tropical South Atlantic
    ROTATED SST PREDICTORS (Mutai et al. 1998)
    SST REOF5

    SST REOF4

    SST REOF2
    OND TELECONNECTIONS WITH
    SEPTEMBER SST REOF2, 1974-
    96
    PENTAD 850-hPa WIND TELECONNECTIONS

    Oct-Nov 1979-96
    PENTAD 200-hPa WIND TELECONNECTIONS

    Oct-Nov 1979-96
    CONTRIBUTION OF INDIAN
    OCEAN IN CLIMATE VARIABILITY
    OF EAST AFRICA
    Equatorial Indian Ocean variability can be simply
    be computed as a multivariate measure of key
    variables over the west (W), East (E) and central (C)
    Indian Ocean basin:

    IOD = (TW - TE) - (PW - PE) - UC

    where T, P and U represents the SST, sea-level


    pressure (SLP) and near-surface zonal wind index,
    respectively.
    PENTAD COMPOSITE 850-hPa WINDS

    Cold Phase ~
    Warm Phase ~
    W. Indian Ocean
    W. Indian Ocean
    SURFACE WIND FIELDS - Reverdin et al. 1986

    Cf. 1997
    NOV 1961

    Climatology
    GCM CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
    Goddard and Graham (1999) used observed SSTs
    1970-92
    Latif et al. (1999) considered case of heavy rains
    of Dec-Jan 1997/98

    Isolated the primary control of SST anomalies


    in the Indian Ocean only, then in the Pacific
    and then in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans
    Role of Indian Ocean in climate variability over
    East Africa
    GCM CLIMATE SIMULATIONS - Goddard and Graham 1999

    1970-92
    SUMMARY
    Understanding mechanisms for Indian /
    Atlantic Ocean dynamics is important for
    East African climate

    Observational network in Indian Ocean?


    Utility of satellite-derived and reanalysis
    data

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