Afghanistan and Regional Actors

Afghanistan

Brief Introduction:
Afghanistan: The School of militancy & Jihad.
Afghanistan: Poppy Capital of the World.
Afghanistan: The most bombed, crushed, corrupted,
and mined nation of the globe.
Most isolated & barren landscape on earth.
It is difficult to believe that any empire would want to
invade it, yet it has become unlikely target and
obsession of some of the worlds greatest empires
and superpowers.
Afghanistan: An intro
Has a history of resistance to foreign invaders and
occupation and enjoy the status of Graveyard of
Empires.

It has always been the part of all great power

rivalries called great game.

It has been a victim of imperial ambitions and

contestation in recent history.
 Afghanistan: Brief history
Domestically, it has passed through the wrangles
between the forces of modernity and orthodoxy,

From King Amanullah Khans attempts to modernize

Afghan society in 1920s

To Republic of president Daoud in 1973

To theocracy under Taliban rule in 1990s.

 Historical Background of Afghan conflict
No other country has ever faced more blows than
that of Afghanistan.

It has experienced the ire of Alexander the Great,

and Babur in 1504, who took the control of Kabul -
entered into Subcontinent and established Mughal
Dynasty.

In 19th Century - Great Game - between Russian and

British empires.
 Historical Background of Afghan conflict
Afghanistan won its independence on August 8, 1919
under King Amanullah Khan.

During Zahir Shahs rule Afghanistan was politically

stable and prosperous.

1973 coup of Daoud Afghanistan became republic.

Communist coup April 27, 1978 Saur Revolution against

Daud, Tarakai ousted by Hafiz ul Amin in Sep, 14, 1979
Amin was ousted by Soviets in Dec 27, 1979 ill-
conceived reforms.
 Historical Background of Afghan conflict
Soviet invasion December, 1979 Brzezinski stinger.

UN brokered Geneva accords April 1988 USSR

troops withdrawal Najeeb govt. Step down
March 17, 1992 Kabul was taken over by
Mujahedeen under Ahmed Shah Masood.

Infighting among Mujahedeen gave way to the

emergence of Taliban 1994 regarded Rabbani
govt. as anti Pashtoon and corrupt.
 Rise of Taliban
Therefore, during the four years of Civil War (1992-
1996) they earned popular support from the southern
and eastern Afghanistan.

In Nov. 1994 Taliban took over Qandahar, in Sep 1995

Taliban captured Herat and imprisoned its Governor
Ismail Khan.

After a series of territorial victories Taliban eventually

seized the control of Kabul in September 1996 and
ousted the Rabbani Government.
 9/11 and Bonn Process
After 9/11 and subsequent US invasion ousted
Taliban within one month.
UN invited all major Afghan parties other than
Taliban, esp. NA & loyalists of the King Zahir Shah to
Bonn, Germany.
On December 5, 2001, the Afghan participants
signed the Bonn Agreement.
UNSC under 1386 resolution, also established
International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) to
administer the security affairs in Afghanistan.
 9/11 and Bonn Process
In the leadership of Hamid Karzai the Interim
Government was formed on December 22, 2001.

After six months, Loya Jirga comprising 1650 elders

endorsed Hamid Karzai as the head of the
Transitional Authority.
In January 2004 Afghan constitution enacted.

Hamid Karzai became president after securing 55%

votes in 2004 election.
 Regional Dimension from Comp. to Coop.
Afghan neighbours have traditionally competed and
intervened into Afghanistan to promote their national
interests.
No regional country has the leverage to impose its will
in Afghanistan.
But, they surely have capacity to spoil anything they
perceive divergent to their interests.
Now, after exhausting all military options and
competition, they now are ready to cooperate for
security and stability of the region.
 Pak. and Afghan.: troublesome relationship
In contemporary world, there are no two states
shares as much common fate, culture, history and
geo-political dilemmas as Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Historically, relations between two sides have been
combination of optimism and gloom, collaboration
to antagonism since the origin of Pakistan in 1947.
Afghan. Opposed Pakistans entry into UNO,
Afghanistans irredentist claims Pashtoonistan stunt.
In 1950s tumultuous relations diplomatic relations
were severed.
 Afghanistan descends into Chaos.
In 1960s relations were at ease relatively.
1970s premier ZA Bhutto visited Afghanistan that was
reciprocated by Sardar Daud.
Afghanistan in late 1978 descended into chaos
USSR invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.
Mujahedeen resistance supported by US, Muslim
world, and Pakistan in particular, (Operation
Cyclone).
 After 9/11: Taliban ousted
After 9/11, Toppling Taliban regime was a universal
mandate for Int. coalition.

Stable Afghanistan has always been vital to Pakistan,

but after a decade long chaos and construction,
stability in Afghanistan has become more crucial for
Pakistan.

Pakistan Supports Afghan-led Afghan-owned solution

of the Afghanistan issue.
 After 9/11 Pakistan and Afghanistan
Sartaj Aziz when discussed this with Daud Ahmedzai
Karzai accused Pakistan for playing Taliban card
to have a sway in Afghanistan.
Karzai had the history of accusing Pakistan for
interference, but in reality corrupt and incompetent
Karzai with his cronies took the escape route by
charging Pakistan.
Sympathetic policy of Pakistan has been very
antagonistically responded by Afghanistan, it has
done nothing to address Pakistani grievances TTP
leadership in Kunar and Nuristan as fugitives.
 After 9/11 Pakistan and Afghanistan
Pakistan gave 500 US$ Mn in aid to Afghanistan.

Pakistan fears that Talibans rise to full power - they

will support the TTP and strive for the Pashtoonistan
stunt now under the banner of jihad.

Pakistan has never claimed to have strategic

depth in Afghanistan nor does it intend to.

Many believe Pakistan had Strategic Depth Policy

that has now been replaced with strategic shift.
 After 9/11 Pakistan and Afghanistan
Pakistan was compelled to opt for SD India,
Iran, Russia supported Northern Alliance.
We want to have strategic depth in
Afghanistan, but that does not imply controlling
it. If we have a peaceful, stable and friendly
Afghanistan, automatically we will have our
strategic depth because our western border will
be secure, and we will not be looking at two
fronts.
Gen. Kayani, 2010
 After 9/11 Pakistan and Afghanistan
Pakistan support the reconciliation process as a
mediator and facilitator not as guarantor, as
eventually it would be the Afghan responsibility.
The strategic shift of Pakistan has four main goals;
first, good neighbourly relations with India and
Afghanistan;
second, bilateral trade with India;
Third, reaching out energy rich Central Asian;
Finally, bridging Central Asia to South Asia for
energy transportation.
 After 9/11 Pakistan and Afghanistan

Today, Pakistan is concerned about the two

developments that might emerge in Afghanistan;

First, manoeuvring of the TTP by Afghan intelligentsia;

Second, Pakistan does not want collaboration

between TTP and Afghan Taliban.
 After 9/11 Pakistan and Afghanistan
Both outcomes will be devastative for internal
security of Pakistan;

Therefore, Pakistan is in favour of peaceful neighbour

with Taliban mainstreamed as political force.

This is how TTP can be deprived from being energized

by the support of Afghan Taliban.
 After 9/11: old conflict new bitterness
After Karzai
Ashraf Ghani defying all diplomatic norms went
straight to GHQ.

Relations became cordial till August, 2015, when the

news about the death of Mullah Omer Sabotaged
the Murree process of Dialogue started in July 2015.

In fact, Karzai and his aides sitting in NDS were not

happy with growing relations and Pakistani leverage.
 After 9/11: old conflict new bitterness

Ghani, at home, was accused for having an

appeasement policy towards Pakistan.
After Gen Raheel Sharifs visit, it has been
agreed to help revive Afghan reconciliation
process.
Pakistan lost Ghani?
No, because Ghani knows to what extent
Pakistan went in bringing to a table.
Including - be kicked out of Pakistan unless they
obliged.
After 9/11: old conflict new bitterness

Pakistan now feels Ghani was a weak and unreliable

partner.

He would need to guarantee, and prove, greater

control over the process on his side for Pakistani trust.

Then Pakistan-backed reconciliation process then is

wishful.
 India: aspires for CA
Indias sensitivities Pakistan, access to Central Asia
through Afghanistan.
India's immediate interest in post-Taliban 2001
Afghanistan is to prevent the conservative takeover
to avoid violence spill over into India.
Politically stable, secure, sovereign, and democratic
Afghanistan will significantly lessen the likelihood of
such threats.
Indias long term goal in relation to Afghanistan is to
use Afghanistan as land bridge, for access to
energy rich Central Asia.
 India: aspires for CA

Around US$2 billion of aid to Afghanistan has been

pledged by India till date.
India has been projecting its soft power to the detriment of
Pakistan by building, universities, hospitals and building of
the parliament, that has earned a very high status for India
among Afghans.
An Indian steel consortium has won the iron ore mining
rights of Hajigak in Bamyan, a project of worth US$11 billion.
India has enduring strategic and economic interests in
Afghanistan; with the NATOs security cover India has
pursued its security and economic objectives in
Afghanistan.
 India: aspires for CA
Strategic agreement with Afghanistan in 2011 for
capacity building of ANSF.
India is empowering ANA, arming it, so after
withdrawal of US/NATO troops it does not descend
into chaos again.
India has been using Afghan soil as staging ground
for her clandestine operations inside Pakistan.
Economic growth has enabled India to play a
decisive role in regional security affairs.
Indias Afghan policy is Pakistan centric
 Iran: A concerned neighbour
In 1990s, Iran backed the anti-Taliban Persian
speaking NA.
Therefore, was a staunch supporter of US-led
invasion of Afghanistan to over throw the Taliban
regime.
Iran wants to maintain status quo in Afghanistan
so no other power can threaten Iran from
Afghanistan.
Although U.S. presence in Afghanistan is ominous
to Iran, but on the question of Taliban and stability
in Afghanistan both U.S. and Iran seem to be on the
same page.
 Iran: A concerned neighbour
Immediate goal of Iran is to prevent its people from
any attack by U.S. from its bases in Afghanistan was
against SPA and wanted to sabotage BSA.
On strategic fronts, Iran has three strategic objectives;
First, Tehran neither want a regime closer to U.S. nor
Saudi backed conservative like Taliban.
Second; Iran will support Afghan govt. with
appropriate representation of persian speaking Shiite
Hazara and Tajik in the political system.
Third; protection of investments and personnel in
Western Afghanistan.
 China: ambitious power
Chinas policies have been very careful and
restrained and Xinjiang province centric.
China is committed to stabilize Afghanistan with
International Community.
After US withdrawal instable Afghanistan will be a
threat to China, Russia, Iran and the region.
It support Afghan-led Afghan-owned peace
process.
There is also a trilateral mechanism china Pakistan
Afghanistan, Keeping India away given the
sensitivities of Pakistan.
 China: ambitious power
China wants stabilized Afghanistan because of
possible radicalism to Xing Xian and it investments in
Afghanistan.
In 2008, a Chinese group acquired Aynak copper
deposit worth of US$ 3.5 billion for 30 years.
Estimated deposits of copper is potentially US$ 100
billion worth and five times more of Afghan GDP.
Conclusively, Afghanistan has very high place in
develop the West and One Belt One Road
projects.
 Russia: an afghan victim

Afghanistan is observed by Russia through

the lenses of security threats to Russia and its
backyard CARs.
First, Russia worries that intensification of
Islamist extremism will energize militant
movements in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Secondly, drug trafficking from Afghanistan
to CA and Russia.
Russia: an afghan victim
Therefore, Russia offered Northern supply
route to Afghanistan when Pakistan blocked
NATO supplies.
Threat of Islamization is a myth says many
security analysts justification for ruthless
policing.
Recent Qunduz fall Russians viewed it as a
warning to CA/Russia, even ISIS is also seen
by China and Russia as a threat more to
them than Afghanistan.
 USA/NATO Allies: tired and fatigued
USA invaded Afghanistan after 9/11 in pursuit of Al-Qaeda and
their Taliban affiliates.
USA toppled Taliban established Bone Process and resultant
Karzai government.
They failed in democratization, state building, and nation building
of Afghanistan they now have assumed the role train, advice,
and assist.
Intra-Afghan Dialogue, Help Afghan Talk to Afghans.
US/NATO now insist to stay in Afghanistan by keeping 9,800, later
on 12,000 troops for coming years.
USA by living in Afghanistan intends to keep an eye on nuclear
ambitious Iran, put pressure on China and resurgent Russia,
Nuclear Pakistan, and ensure smooth energy flow through Persian
Gulf.
 Towards a sustainable political settlement
Opening up the political Space.
Talks with the Taliban.
Agenda for Talks.
Capacity to negotiate.
Regional Talks.
International Role in Talks.
 Afghan Conflict and Stakeholders
International Players

Regional Players

Afghan Government

Political Opposition Parties

Armed Opposition Groups

Central theme for Afghan Peace Process

Political
Governme
Settlement
nt
B/W Armed
Legitimacy
Groups

National Public
Consensus
Negotiation Framework

1- Externally Generated Incentives;

Required economic, military, technical assistance, to
implement agreements.

2- Internally Generated Incentives;

When stakeholders themselves develop mechanisms
they are more peaceful DDR (Disarmament,
Demobilization, Reintegration)
Negotiating Framework

3- Security Incentives;
Will not be targeted by others
4- Amnesty Incentives;
5- Political Incentives (Power Sharing)
6- Identity Incentives;
Dignity, Self-Determination, Autonomy
 Conclusion

Afghanistan is still far from a functioning state

despite 15 years long expensive campaign by
international coalition.

Afghanistan has regional solution with a power

sharing mechanism.

Any solution imposed by others will be short-lived.

 Conclusion

Taliban must be mainstreamed as political entity.

Pakistan sensitivities must be dealt in relation to

Indian footprints on Afghan soil.

China should play a larger role for cherished peace

and security.