Probability

We will discuss
• This video
• random experiment,
• sample space,
• Simple event,
• event,
• Different approached to assigning probabilities
• Next videos
• union of events,
• intersection of events,
• complement of an event, and
• mutually exclusive events
 Probabilities: Key concepts

• a process that results in one of a number of possible outcomes, which

Random experiment cannot be predicted with certainty.

Examples

Experiment Outcomes

Flip a coin Heads and tails

Record the quality of service at the customer service Very poor, poor, unsure, reasonable, good, very

desk of a Supermarket good

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 Sample Space
A list of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is
called a sample space.

Sample Space: S = { Outcome1, Outcome2, …, Outcomek}

• { } Read as “the set consisting of ” sample space contains

Example:
• Flip a coin: S = {Head, Tail}
• Quality of service: S = {Very poor, poor, unsure, reasonable, good, very

good}

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 Simple events
• The individual outcomes are called simple events.

Sample Space: S = { Outcome1, Outcome2, …, Outcomek}

simple event simple event simple event

• Simple events cannot be further decomposed into constituent outcomes.

Events
An event is any collection of one or more possible outcomes.

Example

Event A = { Outcome1, Outcome2,}

Our objective is to determine P(A), the probability that event A will occur.
Our objective is to determine P(A), the probability that event A will occur.
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 Approaches to Assigning Probabilities…

There are three ways to assign a probability, P(Oi), to an

outcome, Oi, namely:

1. Classical approach: based on equally likely events.

2. Relative frequency: assigning probabilities based on

experimentation or historical data.

3. Subjective approach: Assigning probabilities based on the

assignor’s (subjective) judgment. (We will ignore this one)

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 Classical Approach…
If an experiment has n possible outcomes, this method would
assign a probability of 1/n to each outcome.

Experiment 1: Flipping a coin

• S = {Head, Tail}
• No of outcomes = 2
• Probability of each outcome = 1/2
• i.e. P(Head) =1/2, P(Tail)=1/2

Experiment 2: Quality of service example

• S = {Very poor, poor, unsure, reasonable, good, very good}

• No of outcomes = 6
• Probability of each outcome = 1/6
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 Relative frequency approach

• Expresses the probability of an outcome as the

relative frequency of its occurrence based on past
experience.

• Probability = Relative frequency of an event

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 Relative Frequency Approach…

The number of cars a dealer is selling daily was recorded

over the last 200 days. The data are summarised as follows:
# of cars sold
Daily sales
For example, (frequency)
50 days out of 200 days 0 10
3 cars were sold. 1 30
2 70
3 50
4 40
From this we can construct

the probabilities of an event

(i.e. the number of cars sold on a given day)

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simply by calculating relative frequencies.

 Relative Frequency Approach…

calculating the relative frequencies

P(cars sold)
Daily Number
sales of Days = relative
frequencies 0.35

0 10 10/200 = 0.05 0.25

0.20
1 30 30/200 = 0.15 0.15

2 70 70/200 = 0.35 0.05

3 50 50/200 = 0.25
4 40 40/200 = 0.20 0 1 2 3 4 X

∑ =200 ∑ = 1.00

‘There is a 25% chance that 3 cars will be sold on any given

day.’ i.e. P(3)=0.25
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 Relative Frequency Approach…

Let A= the shop sells 3 or more cars i.e. A= {3,4}

P(A)=?

P(cars sold)
Daily Number
sales of Days = relative 0.35
frequencies
0.25
0 10 10/200 = 0.05 0.20
0.15
1 30 30/200 = 0.15
0.05
2 70 70/200 = 0.35
3 50 50/200 = 0.25
0 1 2 3 4 X
4 40 40/200 = 0.20
∑ =200 ∑ = 1.00

P(A) = P(3) +(P4) = 0.25 + 0.20 = 0.45

There is a 45% chance that the shop will sell 3 or more cars on a given day 10
Important to remember

Given a sample space S = {O1, O2, …, On}, the following

characteristics for the probability P(Oi) of the simple
event Oi must hold:

1. 0  P  Oi   1 for each i The probability of an outcome must

n lie between 0 and 1

2.  P  Oi   1
i 1 The sum of the probabilities of all possible

outcomes in a sample space must equal 1

Example:
• P(Head) =0.5, P(Tail) = 0.5
• P(Head) +P(Tail) = 1
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