Week 2 Statprob Q4

ESTIMATION OF
PARAMETERS
An estimate is a value, or a range
of values, that approximates the
population value. Estimates are the
sample values computed from the
sample information. Estimation is
the process of determining
parameter values.
Population parameters are usually unknown fixed
values. Based on sample result, a parameter may
be
1. A number that describe
average( point estimate).
2. A range of values that contains the
true population value. (interval
estimate or confidence interval).
POINT ESTIAMTE – specific numerical

value of a population parameter. The

sample mean (
INTERVAL ESTIMATE– range of
values that may contain the parameter of
a population.
From a random selection of ten groups – the weight in kilograms of 80
preschool children in a barangay child care center were obtained. Find
the mean weight of all preschool children in that barangay.
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10
Group A Group B Group C Group D Group E Group F Group G Group H Group I Group J
20 25 19 22 25 21 19 23 25 23
18 21 23 25 19 26 28 20 19 20
25 26 15 14 19 18 20 18 22 24
22 25 18 19 20 23 21 20 23 19
18 17 20 22 23 21 19 15 16 20
23 24 21 20 19 19 20 22 25 20
20 22 23 21 19 26 23 22 25 20
19 20 18 18 20 22 20 19 20 22
INTERVAL ESTIMATE (Confidence Interval)
Three commonly used confidence The general computing formula for
levels: confidence intervals for large sample:
90% Z α/2 is ± 1.65

- zα/2 () < µ < + zα/2 ()
95% Z α/2 is ± 1.96
99% Z α/2 is ± 2.58

± zα/2 ()
- zα/2 () lower confidence boundary
+ zα/2 () upper confidence boundary
E = zα/2 () margin of error
Example 1: Given the information:
n = 50; σ = 0.5 and
Find: 1. the best point of the population mean
2. The 95% confidence interval of the population mean.
SOLUTION:
The confidence interval is 95% confidence, E = zα/2 () = E = 1.96 () = E = 0.14

α =0.05, Critical z values: ± 1.96

Interval Estimate
Test statistics : z test - 1.96 () < µ < + 1.96 ()
The point estimate of the population mean µ is 18 18 – 0.14 to 18 + 0.14
17.86 to 18.14
The point estimate of the population mean µ is 18. With 95% confidence that the interval
between 17.86 and 18.14 contains the population mean µ based on a sample size of 50.
Example 2: Forty Graduating students have been give the following
grades in a Field Study. Assume that they come from a population
that has the shape of a normal distribution and σ = 6. Estimate their
true grades, using 99% confidence.
92 84 93 90 92 93 94 90 90 94
87 83 95 85 87 85 95 84 89 91
89 93 87 83 87 80 90 84 83 82
80 90 83 80 89 88 81 81 93 90
SOLUTION:
The confidence interval is 99% confidence, α =0.01, Critical z values: ± 2.58
The point estimate of the population mean µ is 87.65 Test statistic : t test
E = zα/2 () = E = 2.58 () =

E = 2.45

Interval Estimate
– 2.58 () < µ < 2.58 ()
87.65 – 2.45 to 87.65 + 2.45
85.2 to 90.1
The point estimate of the population mean µ is 87.65. With 99% confidence
that the interval between 85.2 and 90.1 contains the true mean grade µ based
on a sample of 40.

Note:
1. When n is large, the CLT is applicable, & the z-test is also applicable.
2. An interval estimate ( confidence interval) is a range of values that is used to
estimate a parameter. This estimate may or may not contain the true
parameter value.
3. The confidence level of an interval estimate of a parameter is the probability
that the interval estimate contains the parameter. It describes what
percentage of intervals from many different samples contains the unknown
population parameter.
4. The general computing formula for interval estimates
- zα/2 () < µ < + zα/2 ()
where the term E = zα/2 () is called error (E)

Interval Estimates for the Population Mean when σ is Unknown

The general expression for the confidence interval:
& the distribution of values is called t- distribution
In the t-distribution, the concept of the degrees of freedom, (df) is used. The
degrees of freedom are the number of values that are free to vary after a
sample statistic has been computed. It was formulated in 1908 by W. S. Gosset.
Interval Estimates for the population mean when σ is unknown

The formula for computing the confidence interval using the t distribution:
<

Error (E) :
tα/2
Find the critical values of the following:
1. n = 20 , df = 19 95% confidence
2. n= 32 , df = 31 90% confidence
3. n= 11 , df = 10 99% confidence
4. n= 9 , df = 8 90% confidence
5. n= 5 , df = 4 99% confidence
Answer:
1. 2.093
2. 1.697
3. 3.169
4. 1.860
5. 4.604

Example 1: Given n =20, = 82.5 s = 3. The parent population is
normally distributed. Use the 95% confidence level to find 1) the
point estimate, 2)the E, 3) the interval estimate for population µ.
SOLUTION:

Point Estimate: Test statistic: Error (E):
82.5 t-test tα/2 = 2= 1.40
Critical Values:
Interval Estimate:
2.093 <
95% confidence, α = 0.05 <
df = 19 81.1 to 83.9
The error E is 1.40. With 95% confidence that the interval between 81.1 and 83.9 contains
the population mean µ based on a sample size of 20.
Example 2: Christian wants to know the mean of all entering trainees in a boot camp.
The mean age of a random sample of 25 trainees is 18 years and the standard
deviation is 1.3 years. The sample comes from a normally distributed population. Use
α = 0.1 to find the following 1) the point estimate 2) the error (E) 3) interval estimate
of the population mean.
SOLUTION:

Point Estimate: Test statistic: Error (E):
18 t-test tα/2 = 2= 0.73
Critical Values:
Interval Estimate:
2.797 <
99% confidence, α = 0.01 <
df = 24 17.27 to 18.73
The point estimate is 18 & error E is 0.73. With 99% confidence that the interval between
17.27 and 18.73 contains the population mean age of trainees based on a sample size of 25.

Week 2 Statprob Q4

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ESTIMATION OF

value of a population parameter. The

90% Z α/2 is ± 1.65

α =0.05, Critical z values: ± 1.96

- zα/2 () < µ < + zα/2 ()

where the term E = zα/2 () is called error (E)

& the distribution of values is called t- distribution

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