Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
WEST TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF BATESVILLE ARKANSAS TO 25 MILES EAST OF CLARKSVILLE
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 230...WW 231...WW
232...WW 233...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX OVER NORTHWEST AR.
INITIAL THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA OVER KY/TN WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO TORNADO WATCH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS RAPID SURFACE DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 234 SEVERE TSTM AR IL KY MO TN 271745Z - 280000Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45WNW BVX/BATESVILLE AR/ - 25E CKV/CLARKSVILLE TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM N/S /71W ARG - 31NNW BNA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 37069238 37688697 35528697 34889238
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 234 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 234
VALID 272145Z - 272240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW LIT TO
10 NE BVX TO 45 SW FAM.
..BROYLES..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 234
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-031-035-037-045-055-067-075-111-121-123-145-147-272240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS FAULKNER GREENE
JACKSON LAWRENCE POINSETT
RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS WHITE
WOODRUFF
$$
MOC017-023-035-181-223-272240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CARTER
RIPLEY WAYNE
$$
TNC157-272240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 234
VALID 272045Z - 272140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 234
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-021-023-029-031-035-037-045-049-055-063-065-067-075-089-
111-121-123-129-135-137-141-145-147-272140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER CLAY CLEBURNE
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS FAULKNER FULTON
GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON LAWRENCE MARION
POINSETT RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
SEARCY SHARP STONE
VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
MOC017-023-035-181-223-272140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CARTER
RIPLEY WAYNE
$$
TNC157-272140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 234
VALID 271945Z - 272040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 234
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-021-023-029-031-035-037-045-049-055-063-065-067-075-089-
093-111-121-123-129-135-137-141-145-147-272040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER CLAY CLEBURNE
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS FAULKNER FULTON
GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON LAWRENCE MARION
MISSISSIPPI POINSETT RANDOLPH
ST. FRANCIS SEARCY SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF
$$
ILC003-069-087-127-151-153-181-272040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER HARDIN JOHNSON
MASSAC POPE PULASKI
UNION
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-
149-157-177-219-221-225-233-272040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN
DAVIESS FULTON GRAVES
HENDERSON HICKMAN HOPKINS
LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN
MCLEAN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG
TODD TRIGG UNION
WEBSTER
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-069-133-143-155-181-201-207-223-272040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PEMISCOT RIPLEY
SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE
$$
TNC005-017-021-023-033-037-039-043-045-047-053-069-075-077-079-
081-083-085-095-097-101-113-125-131-135-147-157-161-167-183-187-
272040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CHEATHAM
CHESTER CROCKETT DAVIDSON
DECATUR DICKSON DYER
FAYETTE GIBSON HARDEMAN
HAYWOOD HENDERSON HENRY
HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS
LAKE LAUDERDALE LEWIS
MADISON MONTGOMERY OBION
PERRY ROBERTSON SHELBY
STEWART TIPTON WEAKLEY
WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 234
VALID 271835Z - 271940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..04/27/11
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 234
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-021-023-029-031-035-037-045-049-055-063-065-067-075-089-
093-111-121-123-129-135-137-141-145-147-271940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER CLAY CLEBURNE
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS FAULKNER FULTON
GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON LAWRENCE MARION
MISSISSIPPI POINSETT RANDOLPH
ST. FRANCIS SEARCY SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF
$$
ILC003-069-087-127-151-153-181-271940-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER HARDIN JOHNSON
MASSAC POPE PULASKI
UNION
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-
149-157-177-219-221-225-233-271940-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN
DAVIESS FULTON GRAVES
HENDERSON HICKMAN HOPKINS
LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN
MCLEAN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG
TODD TRIGG UNION
WEBSTER
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-069-133-143-155-181-201-207-223-271940-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PEMISCOT RIPLEY
SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE
$$
TNC005-017-021-023-033-037-039-043-045-047-053-069-071-075-077-
079-081-083-085-095-097-101-109-113-125-131-135-147-157-161-167-
183-187-271940-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CHEATHAM
CHESTER CROCKETT DAVIDSON
DECATUR DICKSON DYER
FAYETTE GIBSON HARDEMAN
HARDIN HAYWOOD HENDERSON
HENRY HICKMAN HOUSTON
HUMPHREYS LAKE LAUDERDALE
LEWIS MCNAIRY MADISON
MONTGOMERY OBION PERRY
ROBERTSON SHELBY STEWART
TIPTON WEAKLEY WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.