The impact of weather on air travel cannot be overstated. During peak times, there can be more than 5,000 airplanes in the sky over the United States, carrying passengers and cargo as part of the more than 16 million flights managed annually by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Many weather-related issues, including storms, ice, turbulence, fog, winds, wildfire smoke, and volcanic ash can cause unsafe flying conditions. Addressing these risks requires advanced technology and timely information, with observations from the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) enhancing forecasting to keep the skies safe.
Left: Weather is by far the largest cause for air traffic delays in the United States. Source: Federal Aviation Administration. Right: This visualization shows rerouted air traffic (depicted as dotted lines) around storms in the Eastern U.S. Green, yellow, orange, and red shading indicate the presence of storms from weather radar. Source: Federal Aviation Administration via X.
Instruments onboard JPSS satellites provide crucial data used by the National Weather Service (NWS) Aviation Weather Services, helping the FAA to anticipate and mitigate weather-related risks. Central to this effort is NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, which assimilates JPSS data from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) and the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS). CrIS and ATMS provide high-resolution three-dimensional atmospheric temperature, pressure, and moisture profiles that enhance the HRRR model’s accuracy. This allows meteorologists to better predict storm formation, guide air traffic controllers in rerouting flights, and help prevent costly delays while maintaining passenger safety.
Left: A 3-hour HRRR forecast for dew point temperature (°F) predicted a dry line occurring through the Southern Plains on May 28, 2024, at 23 UTC. A dry line can trigger thunderstorms, usually on its eastern side, when the dry air behind it collides with the humid air ahead of it. Because dry lines are well studied and forecastable, severe thunderstorm or tornado watches can often be issued before dangerous storms begin. Right: A simplified schematic illustrates the iterative process of numerical weather prediction, where a model is continuously updated with fresh observations from satellite sensors, radar, airborne sources, and in-situ sources at regular intervals.
Wildfire smoke adds another layer of complexity to aviation safety, reducing visibility, impairing equipment, and even affecting air quality in aircraft cabins. The HRRR-Smoke model, an extension of the HRRR model, leverages fire and smoke data derived from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) onboard JPSS satellites to monitor and predict smoke dispersion in three dimensions. This capability supports the FAA in maintaining safe air traffic operations by guiding decisions on ground stops and flight rerouting to steer clear of hazardous smoke conditions.
The HRRR-Smoke model's 16-hour forecast displays vertically integrated smoke (mg/m³) from wildfires across the Western U.S. on September 19, 2021.
With the growth of the aviation industry comes an increasing need for accurate and timely weather data. NOAA’s next generation low Earth orbit (LEO) mission, the Near Earth Orbit Network (NEON), is set to expand upon JPSS’s legacy, introducing even more advanced observational capabilities. For a closer look at these developments, watch for the 2024 LEO Science Digest, set to publish in January. Meanwhile, the 2023 Science Digest offers a wealth of articles showcasing the wide-ranging applications of LEO observations.