Papers by Nilanthi Samaranayake
Cross Currents: The New Geopolitics of the Indian Ocean (Eds: David Brewster, Samuel Bashfield, and Justin Burke), 2025
Chapter 1 Intro: As China continues its rise on the global stage, observers are increasingly rais... more Chapter 1 Intro: As China continues its rise on the global stage, observers are increasingly raising questions about the implications for the United States’ presence in the Indian Ocean. This chapter concludes that the US naval strategy in the Indian Ocean reflects a combination of longstanding requirements and evolving priorities for US national strategy in an era of great power strategic competition between the US and both China and Russia. This chapter identifies three US objectives. The first two objectives – upholding the free flow of commerce and norms, and maintaining continued military access in the Indian Ocean – will continue to be unchanged given economic interests, operational requirements, and the geographic reality for the US as an extra-regional stakeholder without Indian Ocean territories. The third objective is less intuitive but still critical for US strategy. Due to the increased importance of the combined Pacific-Arctic-Atlantic theatre in the era of great power competition, US policymakers will need to ensure that the Indian Ocean does not assume greater priority than it does at present. The chapter will then analyse how the US understands and implements each objective. There are wildcards, however, that could upset US implementation of these three objectives. This chapter will close by exploring four specific risks: additional Chinese basing in the Indian Ocean, Chinese grey-zone activity, the US or its allies and partners elevating China’s threat perceptions in the region, and reduced allied and partner presence in Indian Ocean institutions and frameworks. Ultimately, Washington does not aim to reduce its Indian Ocean presence and will need to manage the potential for wildcards to disrupt ongoing efforts to achieve its goals. Nevertheless, US defence planners have requirements to meet in preparation for warfighting scenarios in higher priority regions in the coming decades.
US Institute of Peace, 2025
While much attention has been given to competition in the Indo-Pacific, the Himalayan landlocked ... more While much attention has been given to competition in the Indo-Pacific, the Himalayan landlocked countries of Nepal and Bhutan have been navigating their foreign policy and domestic priorities amid heightened global competition — especially between their regional neighbors India and China — while also pursuing critical economic and development needs. USIP’s Nilanthi Samaranayake, the Centre for Research on Bhutanese Society’s Achyut Bhandari and Sonam Rabgye, journalists Biswas Baral and Bhrikuti Rai, and the Nepal Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement’s Dr. Pramod Jaiswal look at the critical security and development challenges in the Himalayas from within their respective countries.
Stimson Center's South Asian Voices (SAV), 2024
To celebrate the release of Naval Competition in the Indian Ocean Region, a new online course fro... more To celebrate the release of Naval Competition in the Indian Ocean Region, a new online course from the Stimson Center South Asia program’s Strategic Learning initiative, the South Asian Voices (SAV) editorial team collaborated with the Strategic Learning team on a wide-ranging SAV Q&A that explores the importance of naval competition in the region, recent and ongoing developments in the naval domain, and opportunities for future cooperation. We interviewed experts Nilanthi Samaranayake (Visiting Expert at the United States Institute of Peace), Tanzeela Khalil (Research Fellow at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute), and Viraj Solanki (Research Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies).
Blue Security in the Indo-Pacific, 2024
My book chapter analyzes Sri Lanka’s maritime security challenges and priorities in a wide-rangin... more My book chapter analyzes Sri Lanka’s maritime security challenges and priorities in a wide-ranging volume featuring roughly 20 scholars, edited by Ian Hall, Troy Lee-Brown, and Rebecca Strating.
East West Center in Washington's Asia Pacific Bulletin, 2024
Ms. Nilanthi Samaranayake, Adjunct Fellow at the East-West Center in Washington and a Visiting Ex... more Ms. Nilanthi Samaranayake, Adjunct Fellow at the East-West Center in Washington and a Visiting Expert at the US Institute of Peace, demonstrates that the US strategy toward the Indian Ocean has three persistent priorities "1) ensure the free flow of commerce, 2) maintain US military access, including at Diego Garcia, and 3) prevent the Indian Ocean from becoming a priority given increasing requirements in the Pacific, Arctic, and Atlantic theaters."
United States Institute of Peace, 2024
Q&A co-authored with Tamanna Salikuddin
United States Institute of Peace, 2024
Q&A co-authored with Humayun Kabir, Geoffrey Macdonald, and Asfandyar Mir
United States Institute of Peace, 2024
In the wake of the safe release of the MV Abdullah ship and crew, it’s a good time to analyze Ban... more In the wake of the safe release of the MV Abdullah ship and crew, it’s a good time to analyze Bangladesh’s contributions to maritime security and consider where the country might go from here.
: CNA designed and conducted a table-top exercise (TTX) at the U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) Amphi... more : CNA designed and conducted a table-top exercise (TTX) at the U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) Amphibious Leaders Symposium (PALS) in July 2016 that explored seabasing operations and interoperability during future contingency operations. Using a scenario that revolved around a massive natural disaster striking a fictitious country in the southern Indian Ocean, theTTX strengthened relationships and improved mutual understanding among participating militaries. Military leaders from the 22 Asian, Latin American, and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries participating in PALS formed coalitions, planned how they would operate within these coalitions to provide relief, and assembled their forces to conduct humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR) operations. PALS participants contributed a broad range of sea-based capabilities and employed them in creative ways. This revealed areas of opportunity and friction that could benefit from discussion at future PALS, dialogu...
Center for a New American Security (CNAS), 2024
Washington, March 29, 2024 — Today, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) released a new ... more Washington, March 29, 2024 — Today, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) released a new report, Countering Coercion: Managing Chinese Gray Zone Activity in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean Region, by authors Lisa Curtis and Nilanthi Samaranayake.
United States Institute of Peace, 2024
USIP experts Dean Cheng, Sameer Lalwani, Daniel Markey and Nilanthi Samaranayake examine what has... more USIP experts Dean Cheng, Sameer Lalwani, Daniel Markey and Nilanthi Samaranayake examine what has changed on the border in the past four years, new domains where India-China competition has intensified, what role India’s general elections this spring could play in shaping these dynamics and the implications for US-India relations.
Bloomsbury India, 2024
Book chapter on "Bangladesh–US Bilateral Relations" in "Bangladesh on a New Journey: Moving beyon... more Book chapter on "Bangladesh–US Bilateral Relations" in "Bangladesh on a New Journey: Moving beyond the Regional Identity" edited by Sreeradha Datta (Bloomsbury India)
United States Institute of Peace, 2024
United States Institute of Peace, 2023
The Daily Morning (Sri Lanka), 2023
Keynote address for RCSS conference, Ocean Security: South Asia and the Indian Ocean
Centre for Strategic Studies - Trincomalee (CSST) , 2023
The Annapurna Express, 2023
United States Institute of Peace, Aug 10, 2023
In late July, Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe traveled to New Delhi to meet with Indian... more In late July, Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe traveled to New Delhi to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The trip addressed several important issues, such as greater connectivity. However, there was one item on the agenda that did not receive much media attention despite its potential impact on Indian Ocean regional security: Sri Lanka’s new standard operating procedure (SOP) to determine which military and non-military ships and aircraft may visit the country.
United States Institute of Peace, Jul 20, 2023
United States Institute of Peace, 2023
Earlier this month, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Afreen Akhter led a U.S. delegation to th... more Earlier this month, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Afreen Akhter led a U.S. delegation to the sixth Indian Ocean Conference. Since its inception in 2016, the Indian Ocean Conference has become a prominent gathering for regional stakeholders to discuss collective issues — from trade and economic cooperation to security considerations. This year’s proceedings in Dhaka, Bangladesh, featured representatives from 25 countries amid a backdrop of geopolitical concerns that have thrust the Indian Ocean into a prominent role in global affairs. With so much U.S. attention paid toward neighboring regions like the Pacific and the Middle East, the conference was a chance for the U.S. delegation to articulate a discrete approach for its engagement in the Indian Ocean. USIP’s Nilanthi Samaranayake examines the speeches made by U.S. officials at the conference and offers four key takeaways for understanding U.S. policy toward the region.
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Papers by Nilanthi Samaranayake
Originating in China and traveling through India and Bangladesh, the Brahmaputra is an underexamined river basin whose management raises serious concerns for regional stability. China and India are actively constructing dams and considering water diversion plans, while Bangladesh faces human security pressures that will be magnified by upstream river practices. Unlike the Indus or Ganges Rivers, there is no bilateral or multilateral accord for management of the Brahmaputra River. Moreover, the basin is home to three of the most populous nations in the world—two of which (China and India) fought a war in 1962 over still-contested territory through which the Brahmaputra flows.