Tutorial 1

Marking Scheme
Grade A – good scope and depth in discussions with application
Grade B – good scope and depth in discussions but with limited application;
Grade C – adequate scope and depth in discussions
Grade D – Basic outline of steps
Grade F – Inadequate discussion and failure to demonstrate understanding

Lesson 1

a) Methods of assuring reliability

Students can choose 5 methods from those listed below.

• Use proven and reliable designs

• Use the simplest possible design – the simpler the design, the fewer the components and the
lower the probability of system failures.
• Use reliable and proven components
Redundancy – use of multiple systems working concurrently
• Switchover – use of standby systems
• Ensure maintainability – readily interchangeable or replaceable parts
• Built-in Test functions – self test
• Burn-in – screen out infant mortality or early failures

b) FMECA

Key steps to include:

• FMECA is a tool for the analysis and determination of potential failures of components,
systems or services and the effect of these failures on them.
• It allows the failures to be assessed on the basis of their criticality or seriousness and rank
ordered so that the more serious ones are addressed first.
• FMECA is a team based approach and involves all functions in an organisation – product
design, process design, engineering, manufacturing, purchasing, marketing, etc.
• FMECA can be applied at any stage of design, development or manufacture. However,
because of its ability to identify potential failures and prevent them from occurring, FMECA
is most useful when applied during the initial design stage.
• Complex systems can be broken down into manageable sub-systems and FMECA applied to
each subsystem for maximum benefit.

The FMECA Process

1. Identify the product or system components
2. List all possible failure modes of each component
3. List the effects of the failure modes
4. List the possible causes of each failure mode

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5. Assess the failure modes on the basis of
P = the probability of each failure mode occurring (1=low probability, 10=high probability)
S = the seriousness or criticality of the failure (1=not serious, 10=very serious)
D = the difficulty of detecting the failure (1 = easy, 10 =difficult)

Value 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
P Low chance of occurrence → Almost certain to occur
S Not serious, minor nuisance → Total Failure, Safety Hazard
D Easily detected → Unlikely to be detected

6. Calculate the criticality index and rank the failure modes in order of criticality.
C=PxSxD
7. Develop and list the corrective actions for each failure mode starting from the most critical.

Limitations
- Can be subjective since assignment of criticality index depends on the experience of the team.
This can be mitigated by using and experienced team with representation from production, R&D,
engineering, purchasing, etc

c) Reliability Measurements

• MTBF = (Total operating hours) / No of units operating

The Reliability function

The reliability, R(t), of a product is the probability that a random product picked from the
population is still functioning at time, t.
It can also be viewed as the proportion of products that are still surviving after continuous
operation for time, t.
R(t) = Number of parts surviving at time, t
Number existing at time, t=0

The Cumulative Failure Distribution

The cumulative failure distribution, F(t), of a product is the probability that a random product
picked from the population will fail before time, t.
It can also be viewed as the proportion of products that fail before time, t.
The cumulative failure distribution function, F(t) is defined as
F(t) = Cumulative number of failures by time, t
Number existing at time, t=0
= 1 – R(t)

Instantaneous Failure Rate or Hazard Rate

The instantaneous failure rate or hazard rate is the probability that a part will fail at time t, given
that it has survived up to that time.
Hazard rate, λ (t) = Number of parts failing in unit time at time, t
Number surviving at time, t

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 • Bathtub Curve
The bathtub curve shows the relationship between the instantaneous failure rate or hazard rate
and the life time of the product. It is divided into three distinct regions.

Infant Mortality region

o Also known as the Early Failure region
o Failure rate rapidly decreases as manufacturing defects fall out.
o Characterised by manufacturing failures or design weakness. These failures, in view of the
severity and prevalence, tend to fall out very early in the use of the product. Hence in
products like electric lamps, then often fall out upon plug-in or very early in the life of the
product.

Useful Life Region

o Also known as “adult’ region, intrinsic failure region, system failure region or constant
failure region.
o Failure rate is constant and low.
o Failure are random and are attributed to intrinsic product defects.
o Typically the longest period in the life of a product.

Wear-out Region
o Also known as ageing region.
o Failure rate increases as products wear out with age.

d) Burn-in

Manufacturers screen out early failures through a process of burn-in. The process of burn-in
simulates customer operating the product within the manufacturing environment. Burn-in may
take place at higher or more stringent environmental conditions to “accelerate” the occurrence of
early failures.

e) Equipment selection

The question requires a basic description of the factors which should be borne in mind when
deciding upon equipment selection. These fall into 4 main areas:

Availability – timing, delivery, etc.

Technical considerations – capacity, ease of installation, ease of maintenance, compatibility

(with existing equipment, methods, layouts, skills, etc.), operational requirements, back up, etc.

Financial considerations – total life cycles, initial costs (e.g. purchase, installation,
commissioning, training), running costs (fixed and variable), etc.

Capability considerations – ability to do the required job, performance variation and reliability,
range of performance (flexibility, general vs special purpose), etc.

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Good answers will consider these factors in the context of a structured approach to equipment
selection including a strategic perspective, the consideration of alternative choices using
weighted factors, ranking, etc.

Also need to identify those factors involved in decision making in which uncertainty may exist.
Such uncertainties will affect the alternative choices in different ways and can be investigated
partly through the use of a form of sensitivity analysis. Uncertainties may relate to financial data
e.g. running costs, capacity data e.g. predicted levels of future demand, etc.

Lesson 2 and 3

a) Role of SPC

Traditional approaches, like the one employed by Steel Corp, to control quality involve 100%
inspection or testing. These approaches have several setbacks:

• 100% inspection or the process of sorting good parts from bad is a passive form of quality
control
• Focus of 100% inspection is to weed out defects before they reach the customer.
• Inspection by human beings is not 100% effective because of fatigue, distraction during
inspection. Automated inspection may be costly.
• Prevention rather than detection of defects is a more active form of quality control and is
more reliable and economical.

Proactive approaches aim to prevent quality problems from happening in the first place.

Statistical Process Control (SPC) is one of the ways to achieve this.

Statistical process Control (SPC) is concerned with checking / monitoring a product during the
manufacturing process by sampling parts at regular intervals. If there is a statistically valid
reason to believe that there is a problem with the process, then it can be stopped, investigated
and rectified. In essence, SPC aims to control variations in the production process so as to
prevent the generation of defects during a production process. This is achieved by:

(a) Checking to see if the process is capable of building parts to specification

(b) Checking to see if process is meeting the requirements at any point in time. This is done
through the use of control charts that monitor variations in the production process.
(c) Make a correct adjustment to the process when it is not meeting the requirements. The
control charts flag out situations when the process goes out-of-control during to assignable or
abnormal variations.

SPC provides the means of doing all three things, enabling process quality.

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b) Steps in Implementation of SPC

1. Identify process for SPC implementation

- Select the process for SPC implementation
- Several criteria can be used for the selection of process for SPC - examples criticality of the
process, quality problems at the process, customer complaints, etc.

2. Identify the critical parameter for SPC

- Select the parameter that needs to be placed on SPC. Example, diameter of piston,
temperature of a equipment heater block, pressure in a enclosed chamber, length of steel
sheets, etc.
- The parameter selected must be critical and must be able to impact the process. Example
reduce or prevent quality problems or customer problems at the process

3. Perform a short term capability study

- The purpose is to check if the process has the capability in the first place, i.e., Cp and
Cpk>1 and also see if the process is stable in the short term.
- Short- term capability study is carried out using 50-150 measurements of the parameter. Cp,
Cpk are caluculated to see if the process is capable. The data is charted on a SPC chart to see
if it is stable (in-control).
- Out-of-control points (if any) are investigated and corrected. The short term process
capability study is repeated after correction of problems.

4. Perform a long term capability study

- The purpose is to check if the process stability in the longer term. The long term capability
study also serves as a prelude to SPC implementation.
- Long- term capability study is carried out over a period of time (say, 20 days) under actual
production conditions. The data is charted on a SPC chart to see if it is stable (in-control).
- Out-of-control points (if any) are investigated and corrected.

5. Implement SPC chart

- Using data from the long term process capability create the SPC chart.
- Calculate the upper and lower warning and action limits.
- Define the sampling frequency for the SPC chart. Example sample 20 units every
production shift or every hour depending on the stability of the process.
- Write procedures for sampling, taking measurements and updating the SPC chart.
- Define a reaction plan for out-of-control situations. Example, Upon encountering O-O-C
situations, shut down process and inform the engineer for corrective action.

6. Monitor the process using the SPC chart

- Take measurements of the critical parameter at the specified frequency and update the SPC
chart.
- Investigate O-O-C situations and implement corrective actions.
- On a regular basis, say every 3 months or 6 months, recalculate the warning limits and
action limits and adjust the limits. This is to make sure the warning and action limits are
adjusted to reflect improvements to variability of the parameter.

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c) SPC worked problem

Lesson 4 and 5

a) Steps in Capacity Planning

Capacity Planning involves the following steps:

1. The study of likely demands patterns for the medium to the long term (often in aggregated
form) to develop a comprehensive demand forecast.
2. The determination of the capacity required to meet such demand, i.e., developing a capacity
forecast.
3. Developing alternative ways to acquire the capacity.
4. Selecting a capacity expansion method most suited to achieving the organisation’s strategic
mission.
5. The development of strategies for the deployment of resources, in particular, for
accommodating temporary in demand levels.

b) Level, Chase, Demand management

1. Level Capacity Plan

Ignore fluctuations in demand and keep activity plan (capacity) constant
2. Chase Demand Plan
Adjust capacity to reflect fluctuations in demand
3. Demand management
attempt to change demand to match the available capacity

Demand Demand Demand

Capacity Capacity Capacity

Level capacity Chase demand Demand

Management
(modifying)

Chase Demand Plan

• In chase demand plan, the organization, the organization tries to match capacity closely to
varying levels of forecasted demand.

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• Resource levels would need to be adjusted continuously to meet fluctuating demand.
• Organizations operating chase strategy would need to have a high level of volume flexibility.
• Methods of adjusting capacity include:
(a) Overtime and Idle time
Varying the number of productive hours worked by staff. When demand is high, overtime is
scheduled; when demand is low, absorb idle time through training, shortened work hours,
forced leave, etc
• (b) Varying the size of the workforce
Hire extra staff during peak demands; laying off workers when demand falls.
(c) Use of part-time staff
(d) Subcontracting
Buying capacity from other companies. Increase subcontracted work when demand goes up
and reduce subcontracted work when demand is poor.

Level Capacity Plan

• Capacity is set at a uniform level throughout the planning period, regardless of demand
fluctuations. Resource level stays the same.
• Level capacity plans can achieve stable employment patterns, high process utilization, high
production output and low costs.
• Options include building up inventory as buffer during low demand period to upsides in
demand, finding alternative work for employees when demand is down, etc.
• Advantages are stable workforce, better quality products, improved morale, easier production
scheduling and supervision, less dramatic start-up and shut-down of production.
• Works well when demand is reasonably stable.
• Level capacity strategies in services can have some disadvantages:
(a) Resource utilisation goals achieved at the extent of service quality.
(b) Customer may receive inconsistent service levels.
(c) Customers may suffer if not alternative available.
(d) Potential for providers to become ambivalent to customer dissatisfaction and competition
being approached (e.g. private healthcare).
• Examples of organisations using LC strategy:
(a) Airlines who need to maximise revenue from most expensive resource.
(b) Professional service with ‘experts’ in specialised field.
(c) Popular restaurants may not expand capacity in an attempt to maintain exclusivity –
having to book months in advance may enhance service concept?
E.g of approaches adopted – promoting off-peak demand, Q-management, booking systems.

Demand Input or Demand Management

• Some organizations attempt to change demand to meet their capacity. The objective is to
transfer customer demand from peak period to quiet periods.
• Two strategies can be employed – change demand or use alternative products.
• Change in demand can be effected by price reduction, promotion to increase demand and
price increases to curb demand.
• Second strategy is to build complementary products. Examples – manufacture heaters in
winter and air-conditioners in summer.

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