BASIC STATISTICS

PROBABILITY, RANDOM VARIABLE AND

MATHEMATICAL EXPECTATION

WEEK-8
PROBABILITY
The term ‘probability’ is an estimate of the proportion of one or more
uncertain experimental outcomes when the experiment is performed at
random. Here are some examples that involve uncertainty:

• What is the chance that the country will experience severe flood this
year if dredging of the major rivers is not undertaken?

• What is the likelihood that the new vaccine will be more effective than
the old one in controlling tuberculosis?

• How likely is that the proposed Padma Bridge will be completed by the
end of the year 2020?

• How likely it is that tomorrow will be a sunny day?

• What is the probability that the stock market will show an abrupt rise
soon after the forthcoming budget announcement?
RANDOM EXPERIMENT
Definition: A random experiment is an experiment in which

(a) All possible outcomes of the experiment are known in advance.

(b) Any performance of the experiment results in an outcome that is not exactly known
in advance;

(c) The experiment can be repeated under identical conditions.

Example: A fair die with six faces marked 1, 2, …,6 is tossed once. This is an
experiment with six possible outcomes {1, 2, …,6}. But we are uncertain about whether
a 2 or a 6 will land when tossed. This makes the experiment a random experiment.

Example: We record the time in hours that an electric bulb takes before it burns out.
Any non- negative number is a conceivable outcome of this experiment. Since the
exact hours that the bulb will take to burn out is unknown, the experiment is a random
experiment.
SAMPLE SPACE
Definition: A sample space of an experiment is a set or collection of all possible
outcomes of the same experiment such that any outcome of the experiment corresponds
to exactly one element in the set. A sample space is usually denoted by the symbol S.

Discrete and Continuous Sample Space

Definition: If a sample space contains a finite number of possibilities or an unending
sequence with as many elements as there are whole numbers, it is called a discrete
sample space.
Example: A fair die with six faces marked 1, 2, …,6 is tossed once. This is an experiment
with six possible outcomes {1, 2, …,6}. But we are uncertain about whether a 2 or a 6 will
land when tossed. This makes the experiment a random experiment.

Definition: If a sample space contains an infinite number of possibilities equal to the

number of points on a line segment, it is called a continuous sample space.
Example: We record the time in hours that an electric bulb takes before it burns out. Any
non- negative number is a conceivable outcome of this experiment. Since the exact hours
that the bulb will take to burn out is unknown, the experiment is a random experiment.
EVENT
Definition: An event in a discrete sample space S is a collection of
sample points. That is, any subset of S is known as an event.
Example: A businessman may make a profit, encounter a loss or may
have on a break-even point while running his business. With these
possible outcomes, the possible sample space is

S  Profit, Loss, Break - even

If , then A is an event that the businessman will incur a loss while

running his business.

Example: An experiment consists in recording the number of traffic

deaths in Dhaka city next year. Any non-negative integer is a
conceivable outcome of this experiment; so that S = {0,1,2,....}
We can define an event A with fewer than 200 traffic deaths so that A =
{0,1,2, …199}
EVENT
Sure Event and Impossible Event

An event is called a sure event if it is certain to happen, while an event is

an impossible event, which is impossible to happen. Occurrence of any of
the outcomes from 1 to 6 inclusive when a six-sided die is tossed, is a
sure event, while occurrence of 7 is an impossible event. In set notation, 
is sometimes is used to represent an impossible event and S the certain or
sure event.

Equally Likely Events

Two or more vents are said to be equally likely if they have the same
chance of occurrence. Examples of equally likely events will be evident
once we define probability of an event.
EVENT
Mutually Exclusive Events

If AB=, it is impossible to observe an elementary event that is in both

A and B. This means that events A and B cannot both happen
simultaneously. Two such events are said to be mutually exclusive or
disjoint. It follows that the events A and B are disjoint or mutually
exclusive if and only if AB =.

Exhaustive Events

On the other hand, if the union of A and B form the sample space i.e.
AB=S, we say that the events are exhaustive. If both AB =  and
AB =S are true, we say that S is partitioned into the events A and B.
 
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
The probability of an event A when it is known that some other event B
has occurred is called a conditional probability and is denoted by P(A|
B). The symbol P(A|B) is usually read as ‘the probability that A occurs
given that B occurs or simply probability of A given B, where the slash
‘|’ stands for ‘given that’.
With two events A and B, the most fundamental formula to compute
conditional probability for A given B is

P( A  B) , P(B) 0
P( A | B) 
P( B)

and that for B given A is … (a)

P ( A  B ) , P(A)0
P ( B | A) 
P ( A)
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
It thus follows from the above equations that for two dependent events A and B,

PA  B   PA P B A

 PB  P A B 

since A  B  B  A

This rule is frequently referred to as the multiplication law, multiplication theorem or law of
compound probability. The law may be stated more precisely as follows:

Definition: For two events A and B, the probability of their simultaneous occurrence is
equal to the product of the unconditional probability of A and the conditional probability of
B, given that A has actually occurred. Symbolically

P(AB)=P(A) P(B|A)
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Example: A pair of dice is thrown. Find the probability that sum of the
points on the two dice is 10 or greater if a 5 appears on the first die.

Solution: Let A be the event that sum of the points on the two dice is
10 or greater and B be the event that a 5 appears on the first toss.
Symbolically, we want to evaluate the conditional probability P(A|B).

Now

A = {(4, 6) (5, 5), {5, 6), (6, 4) (6, 5), (6, 6)},
B = {(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5) (5, 6)}

AB ={(5, 5), (5, 6)}

Hence

P ( A  B ) 2 / 36 1
PA | B   = =
P( B) 6 / 36 3
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Example: The probability that a married man watches a certain TV show is 0.4 and that
his wife watches the show is 0.5. The probability that a man watches the show, given that
his wife does, is 0.7. Find

(a) The probability that a married couple watches the show.

(b) The probability that a wife watches the show given that her husband does.

(c) The probability that at least one of the partners will watch the show.

Solution: Let us define two events H and W as follows:

H: Husband watches the show
W: Wife watches the show
We are given that
P(H)=0.4, P(W)=0.5 and P(H|W)=0.7.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
The probability that the couple watches the show is

PW  H   PW  PH | W   0.5  0.7  0.35

The conditional probability that a wife watches the show given that her
husband also watches

PW  H  0.35
PW | H     0.875
PH  0.40

The probability that at least one (either H or W or both) watches

P W  H   P W   pH   P W  H 

 0.40  0.50  0.35  0.55

INDEPENDENCE OF EVENTS
Definition: If A and B are two events and if the occurrence of A does not affect, and is not
affected by the occurrence of B, then A and B are said to be independent. In other words,
two events are said to be independent if and only if P (AB) =P (A) P (B).

Example: In a community, 36% of the families own a dog and 22% of the families own
both a dog and a cat. If a randomly selected family owns a dog, what is the probability
that it owns a cat too?
Solution: Let us define the events of interest as follows:
D: Family owns a dog
C: Family owns a cat
Then
P(D) = 0.36 and P(D∩C) =0.22
Since being owner of a dog and owner of cat are independent,

P D  C   .P D PC   0.22

Hence
.22 .22
PC     0.61
PD  .36
RANDOM VARIABLE
Definition: A variable, whose values are any definite numbers or quantities that arise as
a result of chance factors such that they cannot exactly be predicted in advance, is called
a random variable.

Example: A school consists of 7 teachers of whom 4 are males and 3 are females. A
committee of 2 teachers is to be formed. If Y stands for the number of male teachers
selected, then Y is a random variable assuming the values 0, 1 and 2. The possible
outcomes and the values of the random variable Y are:

Events Sequence of events Y=y

e1 Male, male 2
e2 Male, female 1
e3 Female, female 0
TYPES OF RANDOM VARIABLE
A random variable may be classified as either discrete or continuous depending upon the
specific numerical values it can take on.

Definition: A random variable defined over a discrete sample space (i.e. that may only
take on a finite or countable number of different isolated values) is referred to as a
discrete random variable.

Some of the examples are:

a) Number of telephone calls received in a telephone booth;

b) Number of correct answers in 100-MCQ type examination;

c) Number of defective bulbs produced during a day’s run;

d) Number of bubbles in a glass;

e) Number of under-five children in a family;

 
TYPES OF RANDOM VARIABLE
Definition: A random variable defined over a continuous sample space (i.e. which may
take on any value in a certain interval or collection of intervals), is referred to as a
continuous random variable.

Examples of continuous random variable include, among others are:

a) Time taken to serve a customer in a bank counter;

b) Weight of a six-month-old baby;

c) Rate of interest offered by a commercial bank;

d) Longevity of an electric bulb;

e) Temperature recorded by the meteorological office.

 
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Definition: Any statement of a function associating each of a set of mutually exclusive
and exhaustive classes or class intervals with its probability is a probability distribution

A probability distribution will be either discrete or continuous according as the random

variable is discrete or continuous.

Definition: If a random variable X has a discrete distribution, the probability distribution of

X is defined as the function f such that for any real number x, f(x)=P(X=x)

The function f(x) defined above must satisfy the following conditions in order to be a
probability mass function:

1. f ( x)  0
2.  f ( x)  1
x

3. P( X  x)  f ( x)
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Example: A bag contains 10 balls of which 4 are black. If 3 balls are drawn at random
without replacement, obtain the probability distribution for the number of black balls
drawn.

Solution: If X denotes the number of black balls drawn, then clearly X can assume
values 0, 1, 2 and 3. To obtain the probability distribution of X, we need to compute the
probabilities associated with 0, 1 2 and 3. Since 3 balls are to be chosen, the number of
ways in which this choice can be made is 10C3.
Thus
4
C0 6 C3 20
f (0)  P ( X  0)  10

C3 120
4 6
C1  C 2 60
f (1)  P ( X  1)  10

C3 120
4
C 2  6 C1 36
f (2)  P ( X  2)  10

C3 120
4 6
C3  C0 4
f (3)  P ( X  3)  10

C3 120

Hence the tabular form of the probability distribution of X will be as follows:

X: 0 1 2 3
f(x): 20/120 60/120 36/120 4/120
CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Definition: A probability density function is a non-negative function and is constructed so
that the area under its curve bounded by the x-axis is equal to unity when computed over
the range of x, for which f(x) is defined.

The above definition leads to conclude that a pdf is one that possesses the following
properties:
1. f ( x)  0

2.  f ( x)dx  1

b
3. P (a  X  b)   f ( x)dx
a

Example: A random variable X has the following functional form:

f x   kx , 0<x<4
= 0, elsewhere
(i) Determine k for which f(x) is a density function.
(ii) Find P(1< X <2) and P(X>2).
CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Solution: (i) For f(x) to be a density function, we must have  f(x)dx  1

Thus
4 4
 x2 

k xdx =1 or k    1 so that 8k  1 ,
0
 2 
 0
from which
1
k .
8
The complete density function is thus
x
f x   , 0 x4
8
 0, elsewhere
(ii) Again
2 2
1 x2 3
P (1  X  2) 
8
xdx 
16 

1
16
1
and
4 4
1 x2 3
P( X  2) 
8 
xdx 
2
16
2

4

2 2
 x 31   x4 
N.B.: Rule: 
2 2
2 x dx  2 x dx  2
3 3

2 1

 2    2 4  21  16  2  7 
1 1
 3  11  4 1 4 2
CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Example 8.16: A continuous random variable X has the following density function:
2
f ( x)  (1  x) , 2 x5
27
0, elsewhere

a) Verify that it satisfies the condition 
f ( x)dx  1 , (b) Find P(X<4) and (c) Find P(3<X<4)

Solution: (a) Integrating between 2 and 5

5 5
5 2 2  x 2 
2
f ( x)dx 
27
2

(1  x)dx 
27 
x
2 
1
2
showing that the given function is a density function.
(b) Since the lower limit is 2, we integrate between 2 and 4 to evaluate P(X<4).
4 4
2 2  x 2  16
P ( X  4) 
27
2

(1  x)dx 
27 
x 
2 

27
2
(c) Evaluating the integral between 3 and 4, we obtain P(3<X<4):
4 4
2 2  x 2  1
P (3  X  4) 
27
3

(1  x)dx 
27 
x 
2 

3
3
MATHEMATICAL EXPECTATION

Definition: If X is a discrete random variable with the probability

function f(x), then the expected value or the mathematical expectation
of X, E(X), is defined as

E ( X )   x f ( x)
x

If X is continuous having a density function f(x), then


E ( X )   xf ( x ) dx


Definition: The variance of a random variable X is defined to be the

expected value of the expected value of the differences between the
values of X and their mean . That is
V ( X )  E( X  ) 2 .
MATHEMATICAL EXPECTATION

Example: A discrete random variable X has a probability function as

shown in the following table:
Values of X: x : 3 2 0 1 2

P(X=x)=f(x) : 0.10 0.30 0.15 0.40 0.05

 

Find E(X) and V(X) .

Solution: By definition
μ  E( X )   xf ( x)  (3)(. 1)  (2)  (.3)  (0)  (.15)
 (1)  (. 4)  (2)  (. 05)  0.4

2
V X   E X     2
 X    f ( x)
x  3
2

 (3  .4) 2 (.1)  (2  .4) 2 (.3)  (0  .4) 2 (. 15)

 (1  .4) 2 (.4)  (2  .4) 2 (.05)  2.54
MATHEMATICAL EXPECTATION
Example 9.13: Find the expected value of the random variable X and also of its square having the following
density function:
f(x)=2(1x), 0<x<1
=0, elsewhere
Find also the variance of X.

Solution: By definition
 1 1 1
2 1
 xf ( x)  2 x(1  x)dx  2 xdx 2 x dx  1 
2
E( X )  
 0 0 0
3 3
1 1 1 1
1
E ( X )   x f ( x)dx  2  x (1  x)dx  2  x dx  2  x 3 dx 
2 2 2 2
.
0 0 0 0
6
Hence the variance of X is
2
1 1 1
  E ( X )  E ( X ) 
2
x
2 2
    .
6  3 18
THANK YOU