AP Statistics Chapter 5 - Probability: What Are The Chances? 5.1: Randomness, Probability and Simulation

AP Statistics Chapter 5 – Probability: What are the Chances?
5.1: Randomness, Probability and Simulation
Probability
The probability of any outcome of a chance process is a number between 0 and 1 that describes
the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a very long series of repetitions.
Simulation
The imitation of chance behavior, based on a model that accurately reflects the situation, is
called a simulation.
Performing of a Simulation – The 4-Step Process

1. State: Ask a question of interest about some chance process.
2. Plan: Describe how to use a chance device to imitate one repetition of the process. Tell
what you will record at the end of each repetition.
3. Do: Perform many repetitions of the simulation.
4. Conclude: Use the results of your simulation to answer the question of interest.
5.2: Probability Rules
Sample Space
The sample space S of a chance process is the set of all possible outcomes.
Probability Models
Descriptions of chance behavior contain two parts:
A probability model is a description of some chance process that consists of two parts:
• a sample space S and
• a probability for each outcome.
For example: When a fair 6-sided die is rolled, the Sample Space is S = {1, 2, 3, ,4,5, 6}.
The probability for a fair die would include the probabilities of these outcomes, which are all the
same.
Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
Event
An event is any collection of outcomes from some chance process. That is, an event is a subset
of the sample space. Events are usually designated by capital letters, like A, B, C, and so on.
For example: For the probability model above we might define event A = die roll is odd. The
elements of the sample space S that fits this event are {1, 3, 5}. The probability of the event A,
written as P(A) is the 3/6 or ½. So we would write P(A) = 0.5, in decimal form.
AP Statistics – Chapter 5 Notes: Probability: What are the Chances? Page 1 of 3
The Basic Rules of Probability
• For any event A, 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1.
• If S is the sample space in a probability model, P(S) = 1.
• In the case of equally likely outcomes,
number of outcomes corresponding to event A
P( A) 
total number of outcomes in sample space
• Complement rule: P(A ) = 1 – P(A)
C
• Addition rule for mutually exclusive events: If A and B are mutually exclusive,
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B). Also be familiar with the notation: 𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩).
Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events A and B are mutually exclusive (or disjoint) if they have no outcomes in common
and so can never occur together—that is, if P(A and B ) = 0. Alternate notation: 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩).
For example: Using a deck of playing cards and drawing a card at random, the events A = card
is a King, and B = card is a Queen are mutually exclusive because a single card cannot be both a
King and a Queen. Thus we can calculate the probability of A or B as the sum of their individual
probabilities - P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B).
General Addition Rule

If A and B are any two events resulting from some chance process, then
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
Venn Diagrams and Probability
The complement Ac contains exactly the The events A and B are mutually exclusive
outcomes that are not in A. (disjoint) because they do not overlap. That
is, they have no outcomes in common.
The intersection of events A and B (A ∩ B) The union of events A and B (A ∪ B) is the

is the set of all outcomes in both events A set of all outcomes in either event A or B.
and B.

5.3: Conditional Probability and Independence
Conditional Probability
The probability that one event happens given that another event is already known to have
happened is called a conditional probability.
Suppose we know that event A has happened. Then the probability that event B happens given
that event A has happened is denoted by P(B | A). The symbol “” is read as “given that,” so we
read P(B | A) as the probability that B occurs given that A has already occurred.
Calculating Conditional Probability
To find the conditional probability P(A | B), use the formula

P( A  B)
P( A | B) 
P( B)
The conditional probability P(B | A) is given by
P( B  A)
P( B | A) 
P( A)
The General Multiplication Rule

The probability that events A and B both occur can be found using the general multiplication rule
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) • P(B | A),
where P(B | A) is the conditional probability that event B occurs given that event A has already
occurred.
Conditional Probability and Independence

Two events A and B are independent if the occurrence of one event does not change the
probability that the other event will happen. In other words, events A and B are independent if
P(A | B) = P(A) and P(B | A) = P(B).
The Multiplication Rule for Independent Events

If A and B are independent events, then the probability that A and B both occur is
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) • P(B)

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AP Statistics Chapter 5 – Probability: What are the Chances?

5.1: Randomness, Probability and Simulation

Performing of a Simulation – The 4-Step Process

5.2: Probability Rules

Mutually Exclusive Events

General Addition Rule

Venn Diagrams and Probability

The intersection of events A and B (A ∩ B) The union of events A and B (A ∪ B) is the

AP Statistics – Chapter 5 Notes: Probability: What are the Chances? Page 2 of 3

Calculating Conditional Probability

To find the conditional probability P(A | B), use the formula

The General Multiplication Rule

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) • P(B | A),

Conditional Probability and Independence

The Multiplication Rule for Independent Events

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) • P(B)

AP Statistics – Chapter 5 Notes: Probability: What are the Chances? Page 3 of 3

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