Coordinates: 2.6845°N 98.

8756°E

Toba catastrophe theory

The Youngest Toba eruption was a supervolcanic eruption that
occurred around 75,000 years ago at the site of present-day Lake Youngest Toba eruption
Toba in Sumatra, Indonesia. It is one of the Earth's largest known
explosive eruptions. The Toba catastrophe theory holds that
this event caused a global volcanic winter of six to ten years and
possibly a 1,000-year-long cooling episode.

In 1993, science journalist Ann Gibbons posited that a population

bottleneck occurred in human evolution about 70,000 years ago,
and she suggested that this was caused by the eruption. Geologist
Michael R. Rampino of New York University and volcanologist
Stephen Self of the University of Hawaii at Manoa support her Artist's impression of the eruption from
suggestion. In 1998, the bottleneck theory was further developed
about 42 kilometres (26 mi) above
by anthropologist Stanley H. Ambrose of the University of Illinois
at Urbana–Champaign. Both the link and global winter theories Northern Sumatra
are controversial.[1] The Youngest Toba eruption is the most Volcano Lake Toba Caldera
closely studied supervolcanic eruption.[2][3] Date 75,000 ± 900 years BP
Type Ultra-Plinian
Location Sumatra, Indonesia
Contents 2.6845°N 98.8756°E
Supervolcanic eruption VEI 8
Volcanic winter and global cooling computer models Impact Second-most recent
Physical data contradicting the winter hypothesis supervolcanic eruption;
Genetic bottleneck theory impact disputed
Genetic bottleneck in humans
Genetic bottlenecks in other mammals
Migration after Toba
Criticism
See also
Citations and notes
References
External links Lake Toba is the resulting crater lake

Supervolcanic eruption
The Youngest Toba eruption occurred at the present location of Lake Toba in Indonesia, about 75,000 ±
900 years BP according to potassium argon dating.[4] This eruption was the last and largest of four
eruptions of the Lake Toba Caldera during the Quaternary period, and is also recognized from its
diagnostic horizon of ashfall, the Youngest Toba tuff.[5] It had an estimated volcanic explosivity index of
8 (the highest rating of any known eruption on Earth); it made a sizable contribution to the 100 × 35 km
caldera complex.[6] Dense-rock equivalent (DRE) estimates of eruptive volume for the eruption vary
between 2,000 km3 and 3,000 km3; the most common DRE estimate is 2,800 km3 (about 7 × 1015 kg) of
erupted magma, of which 800 km3 was deposited as ash fall.[7]

The erupted mass was, at the very least, 12 times greater than that of the largest volcanic eruption in
recent history, the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia, which caused the 1816 "Year Without
a Summer" in the Northern Hemisphere.[8] Toba's erupted mass deposited an ash layer of about 15
centimetres (5.9 in) thick over the whole of South Asia. A blanket of volcanic ash was also deposited over
the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the South China Sea.[9] Deep-sea cores retrieved from the South
China Sea have extended the known reach of the eruption, suggesting that the 2,800 km3 calculation of
the erupted mass is a minimum value or even an underestimate.[10] Based on new methods (crystal
concentration and exponential), the Lake Toba Caldera possibly erupted as much as 3,200 km3 of
ignimbrite and co-ignimbrite.

Volcanic winter and global cooling computer models

Geologist Michael R. Rampino and volcanologist Stephen Self argue that the eruption caused a "brief,
dramatic cooling or 'volcanic winter' ", which resulted in a drop of the global mean surface temperature
by 3–5 °C (5.4–9.0 °F).[11] Evidence from Greenland ice cores indicates a 1,000-year period of low δ18O
and increased dust deposition immediately following the eruption. The eruption may have caused this
1,000-year period of cooler temperatures (stadial), two centuries of which could be accounted for by the
persistence of the Toba stratospheric loading.[12] Rampino and Self believe that global cooling was
already underway at the time of the eruption, but that the process was slow; the Youngest Toba tuff "may
have provided the extra 'kick' that caused the climate system to switch from warm to cold states".[13]
Although Clive Oppenheimer rejects the hypothesis that the eruption triggered the last glaciation,[14] he
agrees that it may have been responsible for a millennium of cool climate prior to the 19th Dansgaard–
Oeschger event.[15]

According to Alan Robock, who has also published nuclear winter papers, the Toba eruption did not
precipitate the last glacial period. However, assuming an emission of six billion tons of sulphur dioxide,
his computer simulations concluded that a maximum global cooling of approximately 15 °C (27 °F)
occurred for three years after the eruption, and that this cooling would last for decades, devastating
life.[16] Because the saturated adiabatic lapse rate is 4.9 °C/1,000 m (1.5 °C/1,000 ft, 2.7 °F/1,000 ft) for
temperatures above freezing,[17] the tree line and the snow line were around 3,000 m (9,800 ft) lower at
this time. The climate recovered over a few decades, and Robock found no evidence that the 1,000-year
cold period seen in Greenland ice core records had resulted from the Toba eruption. In contrast,
Oppenheimer believes that estimates of a drop in surface temperature by 3–5 °C are probably too high,
and he suggests that temperatures dropped only by 1 °C.[18] Robock has criticized Oppenheimer's
analysis, arguing that it is based on simplistic T-forcing relationships.[16]

Despite these different estimates, scientists agree that a supervolcanic eruption of the scale at the Lake
Toba Caldera must have led to very extensive ash-fall layers and injection of noxious gases into the
atmosphere, with worldwide effects on weather and climate.[19] In addition, the Greenland ice core data
display an abrupt climate change around this time,[20] but there is no consensus that the eruption
directly generated the 1,000-year cold period seen in Greenland or triggered the last glaciation.[21]

Physical data contradicting the winter hypothesis

In 2013, archaeologists, led by Christine Lane, reported finding a microscopic layer of glassy volcanic ash
in sediments of Lake Malawi, and definitively linked the ash to the 75,000-year-old eruption at the Lake
Toba Caldera, but found no change in fossil type close to the ash layer, something that would be expected
following a severe volcanic winter. They concluded that the eruption did not significantly alter the
climate of East Africa,[22][23] attracting criticism from Richard Roberts.[24] Lane explained, "We
examined smear slides at a 2-mm interval, corresponding to subdecadal resolution, and X-ray
fluorescence scans run at 200-µm intervals correspond to subannual resolution. We observed no obvious
change in sediment composition or Fe/Ti ratio, suggesting that no thermally driven overturn of the
water column occurred following the Toba supereruption."[25] In 2015, a new study on the climate of
East Africa supported Lane's conclusion that there was "no significant cooling associated with Mount
Toba".[26]

Genetic bottleneck theory

Genetic bottleneck in humans

The Youngest Toba eruption has been linked to a genetic bottleneck in human evolution about 70,000
years ago,[27][28] which may have resulted in a severe reduction in the size of the total human population
due to the effects of the eruption on the global climate.[29] According to the genetic bottleneck theory,
between 50,000 and 100,000 years ago, human populations sharply decreased to 3,000–10,000
surviving individuals.[30][31] It is supported by some genetic evidence suggesting that today's humans are
descended from a very small population of between 1,000 and 10,000 breeding pairs that existed about
70,000 years ago.[32][33]

Proponents of the genetic bottleneck theory (including Robock) suggest that the Youngest Toba eruption
resulted in a global ecological disaster, including destruction of vegetation along with severe drought in
the tropical rainforest belt and in monsoonal regions. A 10-year volcanic winter triggered by the eruption
could have largely destroyed the food sources of humans and caused a severe reduction in population
sizes.[16] These environmental changes may have generated population bottlenecks in many species,
including hominids;[34] this in turn may have accelerated differentiation from within the smaller human
population. Therefore, the genetic differences among modern humans may reflect changes within the
last 70,000 years, rather than gradual differentiation over hundreds of thousands of years.[35]

Other research has cast doubt on a link between the Lake Toba Caldera and a genetic bottleneck. For
example, ancient stone tools in southern India were found above and below a thick layer of ash from the
Youngest Toba eruption and were very similar across these layers, suggesting that the dust clouds from
the eruption did not wipe out this local population.[36][37][38] Additional archaeological evidence from
southern and northern India also suggests a lack of evidence for effects of the eruption on local
populations, leading the authors of the study to conclude, "many forms of life survived the
supereruption, contrary to other research which has suggested significant animal extinctions and genetic
bottlenecks".[39] However, evidence from pollen analysis has suggested prolonged deforestation in South
Asia, and some researchers have suggested that the Toba eruption may have forced humans to adopt
new adaptive strategies, which may have permitted them to replace Neanderthals and "other archaic
human species".[40][41]

Additional caveats include difficulties in estimating the global and regional climatic impacts of the
eruption and lack of conclusive evidence for the eruption preceding the bottleneck.[42] Furthermore,
genetic analysis of Alu sequences across the entire human genome has shown that the effective human
population size was less than 26,000 at 1.2 million years ago; possible explanations for the low
population size of human ancestors may include repeated population bottlenecks or periodic
replacement events from competing Homo subspecies.[43]

Genetic bottlenecks in other mammals

Some evidence points to genetic bottlenecks in other animals in the wake of the Youngest Toba eruption.
The populations of the Eastern African chimpanzee,[44] Bornean orangutan,[45] central Indian
macaque,[46] cheetah and tiger,[47] all recovered from very small populations around 70,000–55,000
years ago.

The separation of the nuclear gene pools of eastern and western lowland gorillas has been estimated to
have occurred about 77,700 years ago.[48]

Migration after Toba

The exact geographic distribution of anatomically modern human populations at the time of the eruption
is not known, and surviving populations may have lived in Africa and subsequently migrated to other
parts of the world. Analyses of mitochondrial DNA have estimated that the major migration from Africa
occurred 60,000–70,000 years ago,[49] consistent with dating of the Youngest Toba eruption to around
75,000 years ago.

Criticism
A 2018 study by Chad Yost and colleagues of cores from Lake Malawi dating to the period of the
Youngest Toba eruption showed no evidence of a volcanic winter, and they argue that there was no effect
on African humans.[50] In the view of John Hawks, the study confirms evidence from a variety of studies
that the eruption did not have a major climatic effect or any effect on human numbers.[51]

See also
Early human migrations – The spread of humans from Africa through the world
Most recent common ancestor – Most recent individual from which all organisms in a group are
directly descended
Quaternary extinction – mass extinction, occurring around 10,000 BCE, marking the end of the
Pleistocene and the beginning of the Holocene
Recent African origin of modern humans – "Out of Africa" theory of the early migration of humans
Timeline of volcanism on Earth
Wallace Line – Faunal boundary line separating the realms of Asia and Wallacea, a transitional zone
between Asia and Australia

Citations and notes

1. "Toba super-volcano catastrophe idea 'dismissed' " (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-
22355515). Bbc.com. Retrieved 2017-01-08.
 Choi, Charles Q. (2013-04-29). "Toba Supervolcano Not to Blame for Humanity's Near-
Extinction" (http://www.livescience.com/29130-toba-supervolcano-effects.html). Livescience.com.
Retrieved 2017-01-08.
2.
Chesner & others 1991, p. 200; Jones 2007, p. 174; Oppenheimer 2002, pp. 1593–1594;
Ninkovich & others 1978
"The Toba Supervolcano And Human Evolution" (https://web.archive.org/web/20121212021704/h
ttp://toba.arch.ox.ac.uk/index.htm). Toba.arch.ox.ac.uk. Archived from the original (http://toba.arc
h.ox.ac.uk/index.htm) on 2012-12-12. Retrieved 2013-08-05.
3. "The Geological Society : Super-eruptions" (http://www.geo.mtu.edu/~raman/VBigIdeas/Supereruptio
ns_files/Super-eruptionsGeolSocLon.pdf) (PDF). Geo.mtu.edu. Retrieved 2015-03-28.
4.
Ninkovich & others 1978.
Chesner & others 1991.
5.
Chesner & others 1991, p. 200; Jones 2007, p. 174; Oppenheimer 2002, pp. 1593–1594;
Ninkovich & others 1978
Rose & Chesner 1987, p. 913; Zielinski & others 1996.
6. Oppenheimer 2002, p. 1593.
7. Jones 2007, p. 174; Rose & Chesner 1987, p. 913.
8. Petraglia & others 2007, p. 114; Zielinski & others 1996, p. 837.
9. Jones 2007, p. 173
10. Jones 2007, p. 174; Oppenheimer 2002. pp. 1593–1596.
11. Rampino & Self 1993a, passim.
12. Zielinski & others 1996, pp. 837–840.
13. Rampino & Self 1992, p. 52; Rampino & Self 1993a, p. 277.
14. Robock & others 2009 seem to agree on that.
15. Oppenheimer 2002, p. 1606.
16. Robock & others 2009.
17. IUPAC, Compendium of Chemical Terminology, 2nd ed. (the "Gold Book") (1997). Online corrected
version: (2006–) "adiabatic lapse rate (https://goldbook.iupac.org/A00144.html)".
doi:10.1351/goldbook.A00144 (https://doi.org/10.1351%2Fgoldbook.A00144)
18. Oppenheimer 2002, pp. 1593, 1601.
19. Self & Blake 2008, p. 41.
20. Zielinski & others 1996, p. 837.
21. Robock & others 2009 (page?).
22. "Doubt over 'volcanic winter' after Toba super-eruption" (http://phys.org/news/2013-05-volcanic-winte
r-toba-super-eruption.html). Phys.org. 2013-05-02. Retrieved 2013-08-05.
23. Lane, C. S.; Chorn, B. T.; Johnson, T. C. (2013). "Ash from the Toba supereruption in Lake Malawi
shows no volcanic winter in East Africa at 75 ka" (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC365
7767). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 110 (20): 8025–8029.
Bibcode:2013PNAS..110.8025L (https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013PNAS..110.8025L).
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24. Roberts, R. G.; Storey, M.; Haslamc, M. (2013). "Toba supereruption: Age and impact on East
African ecosystems" (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3746893). Proceedings of the
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25. Lane, C. S. (2013). "Reply to Roberts et al.: A subdecadal record of paleoclimate around the
Youngest Toba Tuff in Lake Malawi" (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3746898).
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 110 (33): E3048.
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26. Jackson, L. J.; Stone, J. R.; Cohen, A. S.; Yost, C. L. (2015). "High-resolution paleoecological
records from Lake Malawi show no significant cooling associated with the Mount Toba supereruption
at ca. 75 ka". Geology. 43 (9): 823–826. Bibcode:2015Geo....43..823J (https://ui.adsabs.harvard.ed
u/abs/2015Geo....43..823J). doi:10.1130/G36917.1 (https://doi.org/10.1130%2FG36917.1).
27. Gibbons 1993, p. 27
28. Rampino & Self 1993a
29. Ambrose 1998, passim; Gibbons 1993, p. 27; McGuire 2007, pp. 127–128; Rampino & Ambrose
2000, pp. 78–80; Rampino & Self 1993b, pp. 1955.
30. Ambrose 1998; Rampino & Ambrose 2000, pp. 71, 80.
31. "Science & Nature – Horizon – Supervolcanoes" (http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/1999/superv
olcanoes_script.shtml). BBC.co.uk. Retrieved 2015-03-28.
32. "When humans faced extinction" (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/2975862.stm). BBC.
2003-06-09. Retrieved 2007-01-05.
33. M.R Rampino and S.Self, Nature 359, 50 (1992)
34. Rampino & Ambrose 2000, p. 80.
35. Ambrose 1998, pp. 623–651.
36. "Mount Toba Eruption – Ancient Humans Unscathed, Study Claims" (http://anthropology.net/2007/07/
06/mount-toba-eruption-ancient-humans-unscathed-study-claims/). Anthropology.net. 6 July 2007.
Retrieved 2008-04-20.
37. Sanderson, Katherine (July 2007). "Super-eruption: no problem?" (http://www.nature.com/news/200
7/070702/full/news070702-15.html). Nature. doi:10.1038/news070702-15 (https://doi.org/10.1038%2
Fnews070702-15). S2CID 177216526 (https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:177216526).
Archived (https://web.archive.org/web/20081207012423/http://www.nature.com/news/2007/070702/f
ull/news070702-15.html) from the original on December 7, 2008.
38. John Hawks (5 July 2007). "At last, the death of the Toba bottleneck" (http://johnhawks.net/weblog/re
views/archaeology/middle/petraglia_toba_india_continuity_2007.html). john hawks weblog.
39. See also "Newly Discovered Archaeological Sites in India Reveals Ancient Life before Toba" (http://a
nthropology.net/2010/02/25/newly-discovered-archaeological-sites-in-india-reveals-ancient-life-befor
e-toba/). Anthropology.net. 25 February 2010. Retrieved 28 February 2010.
40. "Supervolcano Eruption In Sumatra Deforested India 73,000 Years ago" (https://www.sciencedaily.co
m/releases/2009/11/091123142739.htm). ScienceDaily. 24 November 2009.
41. Williams & others 2009.
42. Oppenheimer 2002, pp. 1605, 1606.
43. If these results are accurate, then, even before the emergence of Homo sapiens in Africa, Homo
erectus population was unusually small when the species was spreading around the world. See Huff
& others 2010, p.6; Gibbons 2010.
44. Goldberg 1996
45. Steiper 2006
46. Hernandez & others 2007
47. Luo & others 2004
48. Thalman & others 2007
49. "New 'Molecular Clock' Aids Dating Of Human Migration History" (https://www.sciencedaily.com/relea
ses/2009/06/090604124023.htm). ScienceDaily. 22 June 2009. Retrieved 2009-06-30.
50. Yost, Chad; et al. (March 2018). "Subdecadal phytolith and charcoal records from Lake Malawi, East
Africa imply minimal effects on human evolution from the ∼74 ka Toba supereruption". Journal of
Human Evolution. Elsevier. 116: 75–94. doi:10.1016/j.jhevol.2017.11.005 (https://doi.org/10.1016%2
Fj.jhevol.2017.11.005). PMID 29477183 (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29477183).
51. Hawks, John (9 February 2018). "The so-called Toba bottleneck didn't happen" (http://johnhawks.net/
weblog/reviews/climate/toba-bottleneck-didnt-happen-2018.html). john hawks weblog.

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External links
Population Bottlenecks and Volcanic Winter (http://www.jqjacobs.net/anthro/paleo/bottleneck.html)
"Toba Volcano by George Weber" (https://web.archive.org/web/20110422041006/http://www.andama
n.org/BOOK/originals/Weber-Toba/textr.htm). Archived from the original (http://www.andaman.org/BO
OK/originals/Weber-Toba/textr.htm) on April 22, 2011. Retrieved June 1, 2006.
"The proper study of mankind" (http://www.economist.com/surveys/displaystory.cfm?story_id=52992
20&no_na_tran=1) – Article in The Economist
Homepage of Professor Stanley H. Ambrose (http://www.anthro.illinois.edu/people/ambrose)
 Ancient 'Volcanic Winter' Tied To Rapid Genetic Divergence In Humans (https://www.sciencedaily.co
m/releases/1998/09/980908074159.htm) ScienceDaily (Sep. 8, 1998) – Article based on news
release regarding Ambrose's paper
Mount Toba: Late Pleistocene human population bottlenecks, volcanic winter, and differentiation of
modern humans (http://www.bradshawfoundation.com/stanley_ambrose.php) by Professor Stanley
H. Ambrose, Department of Anthropology, University Of Illinois, Urbana, USA; Extract from "Journal
of Human Evolution" [1998] 34, 623–651
Journey of Mankind (http://www.bradshawfoundation.com/journey/) by The Bradshaw Foundation –
includes discussion on Toba eruption, DNA and human migrations
Geography Predicts Human Genetic Diversity (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/0503
10103042.htm) ScienceDaily (Mar. 17, 2005) – By analyzing the relationship between the geographic
location of current human populations in relation to East Africa and the genetic variability within these
populations, researchers have found new evidence for an African origin of modern humans.
Out Of Africa – Bacteria, As Well: Homo Sapiens And H. Pylori Jointly Spread Across The Globe (htt
ps://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/02/070215134529.htm) ScienceDaily (Feb. 16, 2007) –
When man made his way out of Africa some 60,000 years ago to populate the world, he was not
alone: He was accompanied by the bacterium Helicobacter pylori...; illus. migration map.
Magma 'Pancakes' May Have Fueled Toba Supervolcano (http://www.livescience.com/48545-toba-su
pervolcano-layered-sills-reservoir.html)
Youtube video "Stone Age Apocalypse" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VM7Y1D8NMo8)

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