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    MANSCI Problem Solving - Question and Answers With Solution

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    A battery in a critical tool failed at 32 hours. 60% of batteries come from Manufacturer 1, of which 90% last over 40 hours. 40% come from Manufacturer 2, of which 75% last over 40 hours. Using Bayes' Theorem, the probability the failed battery came from Manufacturer 2 is 0.625 or 62.5%.

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    MANSCI Problem Solving - Question and Answers With Solution

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    A battery in a critical tool failed at 32 hours. 60% of batteries come from Manufacturer 1, of which 90% last over 40 hours. 40% come from Manufacturer 2, of which 75% last over 40 hours. Using Bayes' Theorem, the probability the failed battery came from Manufacturer 2 is 0.625 or 62.5%.

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    MANSCI Problem Solving- Question and Answers with Solution

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    A battery in a critical tool failed at 32 hours. 60% of batteries come from Manufacturer 1, of which 90% last over 40 hours. 40% come from Manufacturer 2, of which 75% last over 40 hours. Using Bayes' Theorem, the probability the failed battery came from Manufacturer 2 is 0.625 or 62.5%.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    87 views3 pages

    MANSCI Problem Solving - Question and Answers With Solution

    Uploaded by

    Aurora
    A battery in a critical tool failed at 32 hours. 60% of batteries come from Manufacturer 1, of which 90% last over 40 hours. 40% come from Manufacturer 2, of which 75% last over 40 hours. Using Bayes' Theorem, the probability the failed battery came from Manufacturer 2 is 0.625 or 62.5%.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    of 3

    The Ambell Company uses batteries from two different manufacturers.

    Historically, 60% of the


    batteries are from manufacturer 1, and 90% of these batteries last for over 40 hours. Only 75% of the
    batteries from manufacturer 2 last for over 40 hours. A battery in a critical tool fails at 32 hours. Using
    Baye's Theorem, What is the probability it was from manufacturer 2? (use 3 decimal places) *

    (.4*.25)/(.6*.1+.4*.25) = 0.625 = 62.5%

    ___________

    as a general rule, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

    for any battery, it was either from manufacturer 1 (m1) or manufacturer 2 (m2)

    so probability that any battery lasts less than 40 hours is:

    P(< 40 hours) = P(m1 and < 40 hours) + P(m2 and < 40 hours)

    = 60/100 * (1 - 90/100) + 40/100 * (1 - 75/100)

    = 16/100

    as a general rule, P(A given B) = P(A and B) / P(B)

    so probability it was from manufacturer 2 is:

    P(m2 given < 40 hours) = P(m2 and < 40 hours) / P(< 40 hours)

    = (40/100 * (1 - 75/100)) / (16/100)

    = (10/100) / (16/100)

    = 5/8

    = 62.5%

    ______________________________________________________________________________

    It is estimated that 3% of the athletes competing in a large tournament are users of an illegal drug to
    enhance performance. The test for this drug is 90% accurate. Using Baye's, Theorem, what is the
    probability that an athlete who tests positive is actually a user? (use 4 decimal places only)

    This is an exercise in conditional probability. You can use Bayes' Rule to solve this. However, I find that
    it is much easier to just use the definition of conditional probability. In short I derived Bayes' Rule every
    time I do this but it prevents me from making errors in more complex problems.

    This is an exercise in conditional probability. For any two events A and B, where P(B) ≠ 0, you have the
    conditional probability:

    P( A | B ) = P( A ∩ B ) / P( B ) = P( B | A) * P(A) / P(B)
    the above is read as: the probability of A given B is equal to the probability of A and B divided by the
    probability of B.

    Let D be the event the athlete used drugs

    Let ~D be the event the athlete does not use drugs

    Let + be a positive test

    Let - be a negative test

    We know

    P(D) = 0.03

    P(~D) = 0.97

    P( + | D ) = 0.90

    P( - | D) = 0.10

    P( - | ~D ) = 0.90

    P( + | ~D) = 0.10

    Find P( D | +)

    = P( + | D ) * P(D) / P(+)

    Use The Law of Total Probability to find P(+)

    For a set of events A1, A2, A3, ... , An where the Ai's are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and
    for any other event B

    P(B)

    = P(B and A1) + P(B and A2) + ... + P(B and An)

    = P(B | A1) * P(A1) + P(B | A2) * P(A2) + ... + P(B | An) * P(An)

    P(+) = P( + | D) * P(D) + P( + | ~D ) * P(~D)

    P(+) = 0.90 * 0.03 + 0.10 * 0.97

    P(+) = 0.124

    P( D | + )

    = 0.90 * 0.03 / 0.124


    = 0.2177419

    If a player tests positive, there is only a 21.7% probability they have used drugs.

    ____________

    drug users testing positive: 0.03*0.90 = 0.027

    non users testing positive: 0.97*0.10 = 0.097

    total testing positive 0.124.

    proportion of users out of all positive tests:0.027/0.124 = 0.2177

    probability that an athlete who tests positive is actually a user = 0.22 to 2 significant figures.

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